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Les Echos: EK Could Buy 777X &/or Additional A380  
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10695 times:

Quote:
"La question est: avons-nous plus besoin d'une trentaine d'A380 supplementaires ou d'une trentaine de 777X?", explique Thierry Antinori.


With google translated into English: "The question is: we need an additional A380 thirty or thirty 777X?", said Thierry Antinori.

http://www.lesechos.fr/entreprises-s...ser-une-grosse-commande-567980.php

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12600 posts, RR: 34
Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10208 times:

Tough decision; I was pondering it myself this morning, but decided to pass on both and have a croissant.

Anyway, it would surprise me if EK jumped now, because they always want to have something big to announce at the Dubai show.

They will probably order more A380s, but once the -900 is launched; I think a 77X order is far more likely in the short term.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5953 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 10194 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Tough decision; I was pondering it myself this morning, but decided to pass on both and have a croissant.

  

Thanks for the laugh, you've just made my day 



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1089 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 9255 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
They will probably order more A380s, but once the -900 is launched; I think a 77X order is far more likely in the short term.

I doubt that the A380-900 will ever be launched. I cannot see any financial benefit for Airbus to invest in the 900.

Have a Great Day,


User currently offlineBoysteve From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2004, 958 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9150 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 3):
I doubt that the A380-900 will ever be launched. I cannot see any financial benefit for Airbus to invest in the 900.

Have a Great Day

I don't know. Not now but for announcement in say 2017 and EIS for 2020 there maybe a case. In many countries the demand for air Travel will continue to increase quicker than the development of runways especially in Asia. A 600- 700 seat regional aircraft on DEL-BOM, PVG-HGK, DXB-BOM, DXB-JKT for example would work I am sure when airlines look 2020-2035 in fleet planning. EK would fill them for sure!


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31440 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 8992 times:
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Quoting Boysteve (Reply 4):
In many countries the demand for air Travel will continue to increase quicker than the development of runways especially in Asia. A 600- 700 seat regional aircraft on DEL-BOM, PVG-HGK, DXB-BOM, DXB-JKT for example would work I am sure when airlines look 2020-2035 in fleet planning. EK would fill them for sure!

EK had planned to put into service a two-class A380-800 with 653 seats for India operations, so they don't need an A380-900 for that many seats.


User currently offlinetimpdx From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8274 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):

653 pax? Would love to see customs at BOM after that bird landed....not.

[Edited 2013-05-23 19:30:56]

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10253 posts, RR: 97
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 7312 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
EK had planned to put into service a two-class A380-800 with 653 seats for India operations, so they don't need an A380-900 for that many seats.

About 2 years ago in an Air International article, Tim Clark was quoted as saying they were pressing Airbus to launch a stretched A380, configured to seat 600-650 in a comfortable 3 class configuration and 800-850 in a 2-class configuration.

The interesting thing about those numbers is that they are both 25%-30% greater than their current seating capacities, clearly indicating that he is referring to the "double-stretch" we talk about on here (typically to 85m)

He was quoted as saying the frame was good for 607 tonnes MTOW already, as it stood today, and was capable of more with some work, but would need upgraded engines to power it

rgds


User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15842 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 7238 times:

Quoting Bogi (Thread starter):
With google translated into English: "The question is: we need an additional A380 thirty or thirty 777X?", said Thierry Antinori.

They'll just end up ordering both I suspect. My hunch is that without Emirates, the 777X doesn't see the light of day, or at least would be farther off.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently onlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 801 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 7177 times:

Let me put forward my STRONG RUMOR based on no evidence but only intuition   

EK will DEFINITELY buy 777X and also more A380 ... 800 or 900

Come'on ... they HAVE TO. They thrive on being the biggest ... until and if they ever fold, they'll keep on buying any new widebody that comes in the market.

   : because in most cases, they demand to A and B and start the process for new air frames!


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13218 posts, RR: 36
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6373 times:

There is nothing new to report here. Tim Clark has stated many times he want to buy the 777X and bring in more A380s if DXB airport can meet the demand.


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13552 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 5945 times:
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Quoting astuteman (Reply 7):
The interesting thing about those numbers is that they are both 25%-30% greater than their current seating capacities, clearly indicating that he is referring to the "double-stretch" we talk about on here (typically to 85m)

I expect it to happen (the double stretch). This will be needed long term to keep the A380s CASM low enough to justify the risk VLAs have. (e.g., unfilled seats in the off season)

But as far as EK growth... it will happen. Each plane has a business case and EK has a good estimate of the ROI for each type. The will negotiate and select each type as needed.


Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 5712 times:

More A350s are no option?

User currently offlineCXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2695 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 5478 times:
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Quoting Bogi (Reply 12):
More A350s are no option?

They already have a number of A350s on order. I would suspect that they need more of something larger than the A350-1000, hence the possibility of buying large numbers of 777Xs and A380s.



Boeing 777 fanboy
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 5430 times:

Quoting Bogi (Reply 12):
More A350s are no option?

It is quite possible but I think EK is more focused on larger aircraft. Back in 2010, well after the A350 purchase, Tim Clark was quoted:

“We’re finding that the smallest aircraft that’s useful to us needs to be 340 seats,” Clark said. “We’re trying to persuade Airbus to realign the A350-1000 more toward the ER, increasing both its capacity and its range.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-a350-as-boeing-stalls-on-777.html

There has been some information on this forum that the A351 would only seat 317 in EK configuration. The 777-8X could very well fit more seats than that in their configuration while carrying heavier cargo (not more volume).

Who is to say what EK's real interests are as this could all be about negotiations but I can very feasible see EK's further purchases only consisting of the 351 and larger and the majority of the heavy lifting being done by the two families discussed in this thread.

tortugamon


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13218 posts, RR: 36
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 5405 times:

They will definitely firm their remaining A350 options (50) at some point in time.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
There has been some information on this forum that the A351 would only seat 317 in EK configuration.

In a 3 class configuration but EK also has 2-class seaters.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 5258 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
In a 3 class configuration

True. But three class is much more popular in their fleet and preceding that quote Tim Clark references three class preference by the following:

"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

I think it is inferred that the 340 seats he is talking about is in the same vein as this comment: aka 3 class. Unless you think the 351s will only be used as regional aircraft in two class?

Three class is mentioned later in the article about the -900 as well:
"Emirates has ordered a total of 70 A350s, including 50 of the -900 variant, which can fly 200 miles further than the -1000 but which carries only 300 people in the three-class configuration."

Anyway, its not a surprise here, EK only wants large aircraft. A380s and 777s.

tortugamon


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10253 posts, RR: 97
Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 5214 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

I suspect that comment was made in its original configuration

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Emirates has ordered a total of 70 A350s, including 50 of the -900 variant, which can fly 200 miles further than the -1000 but which carries only 300 people in the three-class configuration."

The -1000 now outranges the -900 by 200Nm or more

Rgds


User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 5166 times:

Quoting tortugamon,reply=16EK only wants large aircraft:
Yes.

Aircraft:Total / Orders / Options

Airbus A330-200: 23 / 0 / 0
Airbus A340-300 : 05 / 0 / 0
Airbus A340-500: 10 / 0 / 0
Airbus A350-900 XWB: 0 / 50 / 50
Airbus A350-1000 XWB: 0 /20 /0
Airbus A380-800: 33 / 57 / 30
Boeing 777-200: 3 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-200ER: 6 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-200LR: 10 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-300: 12 / 0 / 0
Boeing 777-300ER: 87 / 63 / 20

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet#Current_fleet


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 19, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 5101 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
I suspect that comment was made in its original configuration
Quoting astuteman (Reply 17):
The -1000 now outranges the -900 by 200Nm or more

Yes it was and you are quite right. However, I was not referencing range in my comments though, just capacity. I have nothing to make me believe that the aircraft's capacity nor Tim Clark's perspective on that capacity has changed since 2010 when these comments were made.

Quoting Bogi (Reply 18):
Yes.

Not sure what point you are making here: Are you agreeing with me that they are all large aircraft? I do no think the A330s qualify but I am flexible on the definition. Are you saying that they have non large aircraft on hand so therefore in the future they will want smaller wide bodies? I do not think EK has shown any interest in purchasing any additional small wide bodies. I did not say very large aircraft (VLA) in my note. I believe that EK believes they only want aircraft that are A351 or larger. That is why they have not bought anything smaller than the 351 in 5.5 years.

tortugamon


User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8046 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 5037 times:

Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so. EK may just ask for a higher-gross weight (HGW) A350XWB-1000 instead so more fuel can be carried for (mostly) non-stop operations on such a long route.

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10253 posts, RR: 97
Reply 21, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 4951 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
I was not referencing range in my comments though

you weren't?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
"Clark has ordered 20 350-seat A350-1000s, a model he says can’t reach Los Angeles from Dubai in the three-class layout that Emirates prefers."

My bad, I guess..........     

Rgds


User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 4951 times:

Maybe EK wants in the future may have only two aircraft types in its fleet, B777Xs and A380s or A380s and A350s?

User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 4878 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
They will definitely firm their remaining A350 options (50) at some point in time.

It was not that long ago that they did not even accept the A340-600s that they had on firm order and did let the additional options expire. I do not think this will be the same case here but I think the mix of aircraft that get delivered will be very different than the mix of aircraft that they have on order with Airbus.

They are flying 125% more passengers/year now then when they ordered the A350. I do not think it is inconceivable that their needs have changed since then. Especially with quotes (post 351 changes) like:

"It [the -900] is now appearing too small," says Clark. "So we may slip the order to the -1000, but the -1000 hasn't been frozen yet. We haven't decided quite yet which one we'll take. We're actually playing around with how this order fits."

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 20):
Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so. EK may just ask for a higher-gross weight (HGW) A350XWB-1000 instead so more fuel can be carried for (mostly) non-stop operations on such a long route.

I believe that is what the EK inspired 777-8LX is for. Based on general consensus around here that aircraft should be able to carry 30t in addition to as many if not more passengers than an A351 on that very same route. Not sure if an A351 HGW is quite on the drawing board just yet. It already has a great market position where it is if A can execute.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
My bad, I guess..........


I knew I should have cut Tim Clark off before he mentioned range! What a jerk.   How about this: I did not mention range (I think).

[quote=Bogi,reply=22]Maybe EK wants in the future may have only two aircraft types in its fleet, B777Xs and A380s or A380s and A350s?

It could be. But EK obviously has a need for lots of seats. The 777X could very well seat more than 80 additional seats vs an A351 & have 2-3-2 J class while having lower seat costs and more cargo revenue vs the A351. If EK does not order the 777X then I believe it is likely that it will not get built (in addition the added benefit is that someone will witness me eating my own hat)  .

tortugamon


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31440 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 4878 times:
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Quoting RayChuang (Reply 20):
Unless the 777-9x is capable of carrying a something approaching a full load on a route as long as DXB-LAX, I don't think so.

I expect EK will deploy the 777-8XL on those types of missions as should be very close to the passenger load their 777-300ERs take (as those cannot go out full) and it can carry a significant load of belly cargo (which the 777-300ER cannot due on those missions).


25 Post contains links KarelXWB : You cannot compare the A346 with the A350. EK was not happy with the performance of the long cigar, the 77W could do the job much better while the A3
26 KarelXWB : To give my bet some more backbone, here are a few quotes of Clark about performance: And: The performance of the aircraft is really important for EK.
27 Post contains images astuteman : Can go with that. You didn't mention it - you "referenced" it Your point is well made though. It seems EK wanted more range AND more capacity and hav
28 yellowtail : who else other than EK could use a possible A389.? I don't think there is much of a business case for airbus.
29 Boysteve : Well as I said earlier, there 'could' be a business case in the 2020's for domestic operations in China and India but obviously it's appeal is limite
30 timboflier215 : And CX have effectively said they will ONLY take a stretched A380, and not an -800
31 chiad : I think the A389 will sell far better than the A388. The CASM, if you can fill it, will be unbeatable. And unless there are some major "catastrophes"
32 na : Unless they run into unforeseen trouble, you can bet on it. In the 2020s they have about 100 77Ws to replace, and likely the oldest dozen A380s. If A
33 tortugamon : I agree it is a different scenario. If they do cancel any orders I am sure it will not be because of performance but because their needs have changed
34 TP313 : It doesn't. Either the 359 seats 300 and the 35J seats 350, or the 359 seats 314 and the 35J seats 360+. Can anyone estimate what would happen to the
35 Post contains links KarelXWB : Indeed ... if you can fill it. Let's hope the economy will be much better in 2020. Indeed, a big if. Still I expect them to convert more A359s to the
36 SEPilot : CX has claimed that they will not order the A388 but would order the A389; they are the only ones that have taken that stance. Since the A388 has no
37 KarelXWB : An A389 makes only sense once the A380 generates a positive cash flow and if they can sell enough of it to cover the certification costs.
38 spink : The 388 CASM was/is unbeatable as well. CASM is also only good when comparing aircraft of the same or nearly the same size. Using a 388 on a flight t
39 SEPilot : And until the airline picture changes, Boeing is not going to do it. They said when the A380 was launched that they could not see enough demand for e
40 Boysteve : Personally I don't think this is quite right. If Boeing developed an A380 equivalent then the competition would have bought selling prices down as we
41 Post contains images EPA001 : I can. And I firmly believe it will be launched. Yes, he was. And I think he has not changed his mind about these issues yet. That sounds logical if
42 spink : I'm not sure the selling price of a 380 sized plane could be much lower than it is currently. The 777W is at 315 and the 351 is at 332. The 380 is at
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