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Upgauges At IAD: Rumor  
User currently onlineflyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1022 posts, RR: 0
Posted (10 months 5 days ago) and read 7903 times:

With the recent influx of new carriers to IAD it's rumored that there will now be 2 A380 carries into IAD with the first being Air France and now Emirates in the near future, Emirates started with the B777LR quickly upguaging to a 773 and now the A380. Etihad is currently utilizing a A340-500 but will upguaging to the A340-600. Arab carriers seem to be doing very well at IAD. Currently receiving the top 2 with daily service as well as Saudia, Qatar and Turkish. Could IAD see any more upguages in the future or new carriers with the recent additions of Brussels Airline starting soon. Cold we see British upguage their B747 into a 773 or A380 and cut one of their turns? Virgin Atlantice has already made feasting cuts into IAD, going from double daily A340 to daily A340 now to A330. Thoughts?

FLY


The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
27 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 5997 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (10 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7820 times:

Quoting flyiguy (Thread starter):
B747 into a 773

Not an upguage



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently onlineflyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1022 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7732 times:

Quoting as739x (Reply 1):

It would be for cargo and cabin quality right?

FLY



The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24312 posts, RR: 47
Reply 3, posted (10 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7574 times:

Quoting flyiguy (Thread starter):
and Turkish

Turkey is not Arab.

Also IAD is TK's weakest North America station if you exclude newly start up IAH.

Quoting flyiguy (Reply 2):
It would be for cargo and cabin quality right?

Gauge is a measure of size, not quality.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineflyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1022 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (10 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7539 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):

Sorry " Middle East "

FLY



The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
User currently offlineUALFAson From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 658 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7201 times:

I wouldn't say absolutely not, but I'll speculate that we won't see a lot of other upgauges in the near future. I've heard that UA at IAD is suffering pretty badly from the government sequestration and the slow down in government and related contractor, diplomatic, etc travel.

To BA specifically, I don't see them cutting a frequency. They compete heavily with UA on the IAD-LHR route and matching frequency is important to higher-yield passengers. I would suspect they would prefer to offer more flights on smaller aircraft. I would also suspect that they are losing a lot of their Middle East connecting traffic to the Gulf carriers now offering nonstop service.

Until the U.S. government budget situation gets worked out, I expect more of the status quo or even some further downgauges/cutbacks.



"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (10 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7029 times:
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Quoting UALFAson (Reply 5):
I wouldn't say absolutely not, but I'll speculate that we won't see a lot of other upgauges in the near future. I've heard that UA at IAD is suffering pretty badly from the government sequestration and the slow down in government and related contractor, diplomatic, etc travel.
Quoting UALFAson (Reply 5):
Until the U.S. government budget situation gets worked out, I expect more of the status quo or even some further downgauges/cutbacks.

Yes, I do understand the sequestration, but wouldn't that affect DCA much more than IAD?

Today was probably atypical, but the joint was jumping. The crowds were so large that there was barely room enough to move in C/D concourses.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5882 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (10 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6999 times:

Quoting UALFAson (Reply 5):
They compete heavily with UA on the IAD-LHR route and matching frequency is important to higher-yield passengers.

2X788 would do nicely to compete....ditto at IAH



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1962 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (10 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6962 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):
Yes, I do understand the sequestration, but wouldn't that affect DCA much more than IAD?

Not in regards to international travel.


User currently offlineUALFAson From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 658 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (10 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6544 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 7):
2X788 would do nicely to compete....ditto at IAH

Maybe from IAH, but IAD is up to 4x daily during the summer on both UA and BA.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 8):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):Yes, I do understand the sequestration, but wouldn't that affect DCA much more than IAD?
Not in regards to international travel.

   Nor, of course, to a lot of the nonstop flights to California and the West Coast from IAD.



"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (10 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5511 times:
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Quoting silentbob (Reply 8):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):Yes, I do understand the sequestration, but wouldn't that affect DCA much more than IAD?
Not in regards to international travel.

More than likely since I've been on IAD transcons on which a third of the passengers originated in the middle east.

OTOH, DCA deals with only a few Canadian cities that have preclearance facilities.


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3171 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (10 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5204 times:

Jumping is a snap shot of one period of time.

In general, traffic at IAD is way off.

Its strength will always be international as DCA cant serve that. Beyond that, IAD is just too far out there to get the traffic and airport that size should have


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (10 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4644 times:
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Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 11):
IAD is just too far out there to get the traffic and airport that size should have

Then again, three sister airports inside a 50 mile radius serving the same catchment may also be a factor.


User currently offlineUA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1698 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (10 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4280 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 11):
Its strength will always be international as DCA cant serve that. Beyond that, IAD is just too far out there to get the traffic and airport that size should have

This is only true if you are trying to get to parts of Washington, D.C., Montgomery County or areas east of the city. That being said, IAD is "only" 26 miles west of Washington- granted traffic is horrendous once off the Dulles Access Road, BUT...

IAD is hardly "out there" anymore. There are heaps of businesses (many of them in the tech and defense sectors, many of them Fortune 500) that have popped up in the Northern Virginia suburbs. There are also a lot people that live in the region between downtown Washington and Dulles, and those residents are going to be your passengers utilizing flights out of Dulles. Many of them are well off too.

Getting to DCA can be just as bad during the week if you're coming from Reston, Vienna, Tysons Corner, McLean or Great Falls, for example.


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5212 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4190 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 11):
Beyond that, IAD is just too far out there to get the traffic and airport that size should have

Dulles is very competitive in travel time for much of the Washington area. For a lot of the region, all three airports are approximately the same *driving* time away, despite big mileage differences. From where I am, on an average day it's predictably forty minutes to any of them. I'd say that's true for lots of people around here.

Edit: If the passenger is driving, one big reason for NOT choosing IAD is parking. The close in lots are often full and shuttle service to the remote lots can be iffy if time is short - and it seems as if time is ALWAYS short in Washington.

[Edited 2013-06-16 09:33:42]


Consilivm: Cave ne nothi te vexant
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4190 times:
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Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 13):
This is only true if you are trying to get to parts of Washington, D.C., Montgomery County or areas east of the city. That being said, IAD is "only" 26 miles west of Washington- granted traffic is horrendous once off the Dulles Access Road,
Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 13):
Getting to DCA can be just as bad during the week if you're coming from Reston, Vienna, Tysons Corner, McLean or Great Falls, for example.

Excellent point.

I live exactly 29 odometer miles from *both* IAD and BWI -- but much closer to DCA. Yet for an early-morning flight or late night arrival, it's faster and easier to get to/from either IAD or BWI. As a matter of fact, since the "EZ-Pass-only" ICC opened, driving to BWI is actually fun.

OTOH, driving to DCA for an early flight on the GW Parkway requires two passengers in your car -- one watching for critters, deer, unfilled potholes, and the relentless fuzz and another driving the car.

Personally, I actively avoid DCA when I can.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1445 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4085 times:

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 13):

All very good points that we can't emphasize enough - IAD is poor for within perimeter traffic to the District and many "east of the river" destinations, plus probably most other stuff within the VA side of the Beltway. However, there is indeed a sizable edge city effect developing around the Toll Road corridor (particularly around Reston) and even the airport itself (Ashburn, the "Dulles, VA" area, Chantilly, etc.). So it just depends on where you're going in the DC area.


User currently offlineSligo From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 120 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (10 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2904 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 6):
Yes, I do understand the sequestration, but wouldn't that affect DCA much more than IAD?

It's even affected BWI. The legacy carriers like UA and DL have been down around 10% in enplanments year over year since March 1.


User currently offlineizbtmnhd From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 242 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (10 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2789 times:

While IAD has had an influx of new international airlines over the last few years, international passenger growth has been fairly modest and not enough to stop an overall drop in passenger use due to pretty significant declines on the domestic side. Also, international cargo tonnage is declining at a modest clip at IAD as well. This trend started well before sequestration.

Never can rule out upgauging by an airline but the trends don't look positive for a widespread expansion of ops by foreign carriers. In fact, IAD is could be getting close to maxing out.


User currently offlineAA94 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 530 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (10 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2525 times:

I live in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. Approximately 23 miles to BWI, and around 60 to IAD, so naturally BWI is my preferred airport.

However, there are times where IAD is significantly cheaper to fly out of (I'm talking $1000+), therefore making the drive and costs of parking worthwhile. I actually don't find the drive too terrible in off-peak hours.

For lots of people in this region, you have to consider what your time is worth. I'd pay a little more (probably up to $300) to fly out of BWI vs. IAD, because it's closer, it's easier to get in and out, and I know I won't have to battle Beltway traffic to get to BWI.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 15):
OTOH, driving to DCA for an early flight on the GW Parkway requires two passengers in your car -- one watching for critters, deer, unfilled potholes, and the relentless fuzz and another driving the car.

This. I will never drive to DCA.



Choose a challenge over competence / Eleanor Roosevelt
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6476 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (10 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2422 times:

Quoting izbtmnhd (Reply 18):
international passenger growth has been fairly modest

Not sure I would call it modest. From 2006 to 2012, international traffic at IAD has risen 28% which is pretty good considering the global recession that happened during that time and the continued weakness in Europe (IAD's dominant source of international traffic).

Now, the domestic side is in a bit of a free fall. But the lack of LCC's, UA's struggles plus the growth of DCA with more beyond perimeter flights will be a on-going problem.


User currently offlineAA777 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 2541 posts, RR: 28
Reply 21, posted (10 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2337 times:
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Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):


Now, the domestic side is in a bit of a free fall. But the lack of LCC's, UA's struggles plus the growth of DCA with more beyond perimeter flights will be a on-going problem.

This is sort of surprising to me given the large growth of the areas in NOVA and Maryland as well. 10 years ago, the area around Dulles was countryside. Now its very well developed with tons of homes, businesses on the Dulles Corridor and shopping areas and schools etc....


User currently offlinejfidler From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (10 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2229 times:

Quoting AA777 (Reply 21):
This is sort of surprising to me given the large growth of the areas in NOVA and Maryland as well. 10 years ago, the area around Dulles was countryside. Now its very well developed with tons of homes, businesses on the Dulles Corridor and shopping areas and schools etc....

I find this surprising also. There has been huge growth in Loudoun county, and people there would basically have to drive past IAD on their way to DCA or BWI to take a flight at one of those airports. Also a lot of new companies have been opening up in that area. I really can't figure out the explanation behind it.

I live in Bethesda, so by car DCA is a bit closer than IAD, and the Metro option is nice. I choose DCA if I can get a direct flight with reasonable timings, and otherwise IAD. For example in a couple weeks, I'm flying to LAS and I chose IAD because the flight times worked much better with my meeting schedule. The out-of-perimeter flights from DCA offer limited choice.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6476 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (10 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2186 times:

Quoting jfidler (Reply 22):
I find this surprising also. There has been huge growth in Loudoun county, and people there would basically have to drive past IAD on their way to DCA or BWI to take a flight at one of those airports. Also a lot of new companies have been opening up in that area. I really can't figure out the explanation behind it.

I think the problem is a few things.

First, despite all the growth, only about 1.2 million people in the DC region would consider IAD their closest airport. So, when you look at it that way, IAD isn't really serving that big of an area. A service area of 1.2 million aligns more with the service levels of BDL or CMH. Of course, IAD gets more traffic than BDL/CMH because of all the transcon traffic, international traffic and connecting flows of the UA hub. But as a domestic O+D base, it's not that big.

Second, fares are often not competitive with BWI/DCA on many short-mid haul markets. For me, IAD is my closest airport, but I still end up using BWI or DCA on many domestic trips because fares are substantially lower, plus frequencies are higher. This is particularly true for leisure markets where airports like BWI/DCA have substantially more service. Look at how much service BWI/DCA have to TPA, MCO, FLL, RSW, MIA in comparison to IAD.

Third, UA is still struggling to make money and has been cutting domestic capacity to try and force yields higher. This may help UA, but it is hurting domestic traffic at IAD.


User currently offlinemsp747 From United States of America, joined May 2010, 304 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (10 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1829 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):
Now, the domestic side is in a bit of a free fall. But the lack of LCC's, UA's struggles plus the growth of DCA with more beyond perimeter flights will be a on-going problem
Quoting AA777 (Reply 21):
This is sort of surprising to me given the large growth of the areas in NOVA and Maryland as well. 10 years ago, the area around Dulles was countryside. Now its very well developed with tons of homes, businesses on the Dulles Corridor and shopping areas and schools etc....

I think one of the big problems that doesn't get mentioned much is reliability at IAD. Since moving from Minneapolis in 2011, I have had half of my dozen or so flights impacted by a cancellation. I don't know if this is due to low load factors on DL or something else, but I have had to scramble on numerous occasions to find a new way home after having my MSP-IAD flight dropped, and having to shift to a DCA flight. I'm almost always on a regional flight out of IAD, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised when the alternative is an MD90 or 757 out of DCA. DL seems to be doing he bare minimum at IAD. I'm sure if I was a regular UA customer, I would think otherwise.


User currently offlineyegbey01 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1721 posts, RR: 3
Reply 25, posted (10 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1713 times:

Quoting AA94 (Reply 19):
I live in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. Approximately 23 miles to BWI, and around 60 to IAD, so naturally BWI is my preferred airport.

However, there are times where IAD is significantly cheaper to fly out of (I'm talking $1000+), therefore making the drive and costs of parking worthwhile. I actually don't find the drive too terrible in off-peak hours.

For lots of people in this region, you have to consider what your time is worth. I'd pay a little more (probably up to $300) to fly out of BWI vs. IAD, because it's closer, it's easier to get in and out, and I know I won't have to battle Beltway traffic to get to BWI.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 15):
OTOH, driving to DCA for an early flight on the GW Parkway requires two passengers in your car -- one watching for critters, deer, unfilled potholes, and the relentless fuzz and another driving the car.

This. I will never drive to DCA.

That is interesting...I live in Alexandria, and I usually fly from BWI because it is always so much cheaper for me. I guess it all depends where one travels to.

But IAD has been losing ground to other airports - not from the International traffic aspect of things....That is the only bright spot in IAD at the moment


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5212 posts, RR: 7
Reply 26, posted (10 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1477 times:

Deleted by poster because of questionable source.

[Edited 2013-06-18 20:35:12]


Consilivm: Cave ne nothi te vexant
User currently offlineiadbudd From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 102 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (10 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1350 times:

I am surprised Air India did not last long at IAD. If they had tried a nonstop instead of a through flight stopping at JFK maybe it would have worked. A good portion of Qatar, Emirates and Ethiad pax are connecting on to India. It is also good that some of the International growth is accuring away from the primary International arrival rush of 3-6pm. It helps the crowds at the Customs halls when the flights are coming in the morning as Emirates does. Brussels Airlines started today and they arrive during the second PM rush of 7:00-8:30.

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