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Sukhoi SSJ : Stalled Project?  
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1988 posts, RR: 2
Posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 11051 times:

I was looking at the orders for the SSJ and the last one listed was placed in Feb 2012. Since then, A LOT of orders were placed for the other small jets in the same category of the SSJ...

Is this project a complete failure ?? Or Am I misinformed and there are more orders and the SSJ could have a chance ?

Rgds.

G.


80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePlaneInsomniac From Canada, joined Nov 2007, 678 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 10894 times:

Well, it's not looking good:
- Horrible crash during demonstration flight (although not the plane's fault, as far as it is known)
- Launch customer Armavia has returned its planes to the manufacturer, stating that they constantly required repairs
- Aeroflot publicly complained about abysmal dispatch reliability
So, yeah, certainly an uphill battle for them.



Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 2, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 10790 times:
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Such a shame. A lovely looking aircraft, and I can't help but feel that it's a real missed opportunity. They had the chance to develop something as a joint venture which could have given some kind of credibility to Russian aerospace on the global market, and they buggered it up. The fact that pilot error appears to have caused the demonstration crash really sums things up I fear. I really, really wanted this thing to work.


✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 10326 times:

IMO their only hope of mainstream success is to effectively cancel the current project and re-equip with next gen engines. If this aircraft had come out when first planned it would have done very well, it has excellent efficiency... but only when compared to current aircraft. There will still be a reasonable market for the aircraft, but it's not going to break into new ones now, as had been hoped.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 2):
I really, really wanted this thing to work.

My sentiments too, it's a brilliant aircraft, but it's too late - the industry has moved on.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1600 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 10267 times:

Funny, I had been wondering this same thing myself. Wiki states one of the issues has been delayed delivery of parts. I think the problems highlight just how challenging it is to rebuild a civil aircraft program. The Superjet (great name btw) experience must give China pause in developing its own jet.

User currently offlineFVTu134 From Russia, joined Aug 2005, 173 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 10094 times:

Really a shame as it's a really nice airplane to fly.
Had a chance to fly it 3 times now and it's really comfortable, nice humming engines, good acceleration and overall just a nice plane. Only minus on the aeroflot birds is the old style fabric seat covers.

FVTu134



who decided that a Horizon should be HORIZONtal???
User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1385 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 9784 times:

Seems pretty typical for a Russian project. Get the plane built, but deliveries are very slow.

As bad a job as Airbus and Boeing have been doing on their latest projects (esp Boeing) they still get the planes in service, steady production, iron out the teething problems and turn them into solid products.

Will the MS-21 and C919 end up like their predecessor projects, or take the world by storm?


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 9389 times:
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Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 1):
- Launch customer Armavia has returned its planes to the manufacturer, stating that they constantly required repairs
- Aeroflot publicly complained about abysmal dispatch reliability
So, yeah, certainly an uphill battle for them.

IMHO, the dispatch reliability has hurt the Superjet more than anything else. Yes, the crash delayed orders... but dispatch reliability is not an option when competing with the E-jets (E1/E2), C-series, and MRJ.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):

IMO their only hope of mainstream success is to effectively cancel the current project and re-equip with next gen engines.

??? They were new custom engines. Now, they missed fuel burn (by 4%, IIRC), but they are not CFM-34s... And cancelling the current project would require paying off the vendors. They are in a tough spot...

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
If this aircraft had come out when first planned it would have done very well, it has excellent efficiency... but only when compared to current aircraft.

The superjet would have done very well if it had:
1. Come out of time.
2. Met dispatch reliability requirements
3. Met fuel burn (small miss)

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
the industry has moved on.

   Its a crowded market and only a few frames will achieve 'economy of scale.'

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 4):
The Superjet (great name btw) experience must give China pause in developing its own jet.

The Chinese should first get the ARJ-21 out. It is having major issues and due to the 'top down' culture, the lessons learned are *not* going over the C919. New issues not yet in the press too... No, I'm not talking wing or landing gear...

Quoting ADent (Reply 6):
Will the MS-21 and C919 end up like their predecessor projects, or take the world by storm?

I've been impressed by the work Irkut has done through Shorts Brothers.

Due to the haphazard work on the ARJ-21, I hold no hope for the C919 which is a far more complex project.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineneutrino From Singapore, joined May 2012, 611 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 9282 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Due to the haphazard work on the ARJ-21, I hold no hope for the C919 which is a far more complex project.

They should second the Long March 2F/Shenzhou managing & engineering teams to their airliner projects. That launcher and spacecraft have been performing beautifully with just minor hitches. C919 is, well, not rocket science.  



Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 9087 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
They were new custom engines. Now, they missed fuel burn (by 4%, IIRC), but they are not CFM-34s... And cancelling the current project would require paying off the vendors.

They are going to be 12-15% less efficient than other aircraft in the marketplace. That puts them in a difficult situation.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
The superjet would have done very well if it had:
1. Come out of time.
2. Met dispatch reliability requirements
3. Met fuel burn (small miss)

Only the first point is a definite big issue in my opinion. Call me skeptical, but dispatch reliability has been played with in the past as a tool to gain discounts/sympathy - Armavia did it due to their poor finances and Rossiya did this very publicly with the An-148 before ordering more for 'a discount'.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2630 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8909 times:

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 1):
- Launch customer Armavia has returned its planes to the manufacturer, stating that they constantly required repairs

Just cheap rumors that were spread by the agonizing airline. Now Armavia is bankrupt and we know that their aircraft were actually impounded due to not making their payments.

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 1):
- Aeroflot publicly complained about abysmal dispatch reliability

As said, there are lots of rumors about reliability issues being deliberately spread with a lot of interests behind them. They may or may not be true. Probably somewhere in the middle is the truth.
What is indeed true is that Aeroflot got 10 frames at a sub-standard spec (the first frames not meeting performance? That would never happen to a Western manufacturer!   ) and those will be replaced by new ones.

Quoting ADent (Reply 6):
Seems pretty typical for a Russian project. Get the plane built, but deliveries are very slow.

It's a shame. Looks like Sukhoi successfully tackled all the other "typical Russian" issues (fuel burn, reliability), but failed in that one: production ramp-up.   

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
The superjet would have done very well if it had:
1. Come out of time.
2. Met dispatch reliability requirements
3. Met fuel burn (small miss)

IMO 1) is the truly relevant. Somewhat late to market (but still, Sukhoi had plenty of time to sell Superjets before Embraer launched their E2 generation) and even worse, late to ramp-up (they could've had dozens of aircraft out on the market in that time). But even then, there's still 5 more years until the Ejets E2 EIS. Ifff they can ramp-up production, they may still sell some.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9):
Now, they missed fuel burn (by 4%, IIRC), but they are not CFM-34s... And cancelling the current project would require paying off the vendors.
They are going to be 12-15% less efficient than other aircraft in the marketplace. That puts them in a difficult situation

IIRC the engine was supposed to be 7% better than the CF34 (but I could be wrong), so even if they missed fuel burn it's not too bad. But I agree that going with an all-new engine was a risk. Perhaps too much to tackle at once.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8779 times:
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Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9):
They are going to be 12-15% less efficient than other aircraft in the marketplace. That puts them in a difficult situation.

They are less efficient as they missed not only the engine technology but a leap in wing technology. Look at how the Embraer E2's are getting a new wing... its required to be competitive.

When interest rates were high and fuel prices low, technology moved slowly as airlines avoided risk. Some of the 'leap' is due to amazing work done on computers and wind tunnels for the new wings. Some is taking the risk in the engines.

But the fuel burn miss is a problem. While the engines have a TSFC ~12% more than the Pratt, there is also less Nacelle drag. So its probably about a 9% net difference to the PW1200G. An intermediate point... which is no good when you are the new competitor.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9):
but dispatch reliability has been played with in the past as a tool to gain discounts/sympathy

Its also very costly for airlines. If dispatch reliability is very poor, and two airlines have claimed so, then there is a *big* problem.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 10):
IIRC the engine was supposed to be 7% better than the CF34 (but I could be wrong), so even if they missed fuel burn it's not too bad. But I agree that going with an all-new engine was a risk. Perhaps too much to tackle at once.

With less nacelle drag too...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 8570 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
When interest rates were high and fuel prices low, technology moved slowly as airlines avoided risk. Some of the 'leap' is due to amazing work done on computers and wind tunnels for the new wings. Some is taking the risk in the engines.

  

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
Its also very costly for airlines. If dispatch reliability is very poor, and two airlines have claimed so, then there is a *big* problem.

This is where I'm not convinced. One of those customers (Armavia) proved to be talking out of their backsides on most things, including the SSJ reliability. Aeroflot complained vigorously and will now receive new planes to replace the initial frames - so I would say they got what they wanted.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineTheRedBaron From Mexico, joined Mar 2005, 2216 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8379 times:

Well Interjet will recieve their first Superjet in less than 2 months and they bought 2 dozen of those Vodka Burners, I guess we will know how bad or good the Aircraft is since Interjet has money, has resources and also will use them like crazy...

Waita few months and we will know if this is the nail on the coffin or the start of a new contender in the market...

TRB



The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8543 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8351 times:

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 1):
- Horrible crash during demonstration flight (although not the plane's fault, as far as it is known)
- Launch customer Armavia has returned its planes to the manufacturer, stating that they constantly required repairs
- Aeroflot publicly complained about abysmal dispatch reliability

Comrade, from Russian point of view that sounds like fantastic program!     


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1600 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7726 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 12):
Aeroflot complained vigorously and will now receive new planes to replace the initial frames - so I would say they got what they wanted.

So how many aircraft have been built and delivered? My internet research indicates only 21 have been delivered so far, but I haven't found a website that gives out reliable figures.


User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 1965 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7255 times:

I personally think Boeing should have licensed 717 design to Russia/China/Canada and whoever is working on a 100 seater and let them upgrade the design. SSJ has so much western content, it is Russian for namesake.

User currently offlineridgid727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7216 times:

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 13):
Waita few months and we will know if this is the nail on the coffin or the start of a new contender in the market...

Have to agree with you there, and I believe a number Western Eyes will be watching that with interest. If they do well with it, it could be the tipping point for the SSJ


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 18, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 6445 times:
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Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 13):
Well Interjet will recieve their first Superjet in less than 2 months and they bought 2 dozen of those Vodka Burners, I guess we will know how bad or good the Aircraft is since Interjet has money, has resources and also will use them like crazy...

First, love the 'Vodka Burner' line.   That is just fun. I'm going to borrow it.

But you are right, Interjet could make the SSJ.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 12):
Aeroflot complained vigorously and will now receive new planes to replace the initial frames - so I would say they got what they wanted.

Hmmm... That implies there was a reason to take new builds.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Comrade, from Russian point of view that sounds like fantastic program!

  

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinesturmovik From India, joined May 2007, 509 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6190 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 16):
SSJ has so much western content, it is Russian for namesake.

The amount of Russian content on it would probably fare well when compared to the amount of American content in Airbuses, or the amount of Japanese content on Boeings. Every aircraft program these days is global in terms of content, and that has been the trend for the past two or three decades.



'What's it doing now?'
User currently offlineDavidCA From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 69 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5983 times:

Any idea yet what routes Interjet plans to use them on?

User currently offlinePlaneInsomniac From Canada, joined Nov 2007, 678 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 5187 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 10):
As said, there are lots of rumors about reliability issues being deliberately spread with a lot of interests behind them.

I don't know what your definition of "rumor" is, but this was a public statement by a named Aeroflot representative:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/companies/news/1533851/abonement_na_stoyanku

Machine translation:
"A few months airliners flown 2,381 hours, and had one and a half times the stated deputy chief engineer of the Department of Aviation and Logistics "Aeroflot" Constantine Mohni. Daily flight time was on average 3.9 hours with a standard indicator for the regional technology in 8-9 hours. Outages were caused by failures due to technical problems and late delivery of spare parts, Mohni said."

I.e., the biggest operator publicly stated that their freshly delivered planes are only available less than 50% of the time they were supposed to be flying.

As a matter of fact, UAC felt compelled to publish a press release addressing the issue this spring:
http://www.uacrussia.ru/en/press/news/index.php?id4=1040

We are not talking about minor issues, either. From UAC's own press release:
"During Sukhoi Superjet 100 commercial operation there were erroneous leakage detection system engagement, slat extention fault and landing gear up fault detected."



Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 4515 times:

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 21):
Daily flight time was on average 3.9 hours with a standard indicator for the regional technology in 8-9 hours. Outages were caused by failures due to technical problems and late delivery of spare parts, Mohni said."

I think the biggest doubt in potential operators' minds was that of reliability and timely availablity of spares. To overcome these doubts Sukhoi should have built an effective spares distribution and delivery system BEFORE delivering the aircraft to customers.

Too late now. Average utilisation of 3.9 hours due to technical problems and late delivery of spares = the aircraft has proved to be a disaster in service.


User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 685 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 4366 times:

Quoting DavidCA (Reply 20):
Any idea yet what routes Interjet plans to use them on?

I've read somewhere they will go to Dallas this summer


User currently offlinesibille From Belgium, joined Jun 2005, 482 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 4245 times:

In an other way, it's a completly new aircraft. Need time to improve. Imagine the disaster if the B-787 would be the first Boeing commercial jet.........
I think we have to wait Interjet's first year of operation to have an idea.
Aeroflot complaint must help to improve the aircraft. The new ones should be better no?


25 Post contains images PlymSpotter : I haven't checked for a while, but that sounds about right. I believe it's because the first frames did not meet specification. Agreed. Dan
26 KarelXWB : I have 23 frames built: > 1 destroyed > 4 stored > 18 active However, Sukhoi will buy 10 SSJ aircraft back from Aeroflot.
27 art : 1 I would think that Sukhoi's inability to supply spares nailed quite a few nails into the coffin. Any repeat of completely inadequate spares service
28 na : I wonder if the Russian military jets also suffer from reliability problems. Naturally they should.
29 RussianJet : There is some logic to such a supposition, but the fact is that military production has remained far more stable and established than the civil aviat
30 lightsaber : Russian military aircraft are built far different than commercial aircraft. They are incredibly simple (but very elegant). However the overhaul costs
31 Post contains links KarelXWB : UAC presidents says stretched Superjet will depend on whether it can find a customer. http://twitter.com/ghimlay/status/347363134920617986
32 r2rho : Just because it's a public statement doesn't mean it's true. Public statements can be made with a hidden agenda in mind, like getting new planes. Al
33 art : I do not think it likely that Aeroflot was giving out false figures re: daily utilisation of the SSJ. According to the report, the SSJ was being flow
34 Mexicana757 : Interjet has not said on what routes the SSJ100 will be on. Most likely it will end up on one of the seven new destinations in Mexico 4O announced th
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