Goingboeing From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4875 posts, RR: 19 Reply 10, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 4625 times:
UAL was in some pretty dire straits prior to 9/11. Debt rating was reduced to "junk" status.
EGFF - Southwest??? In your dreams. SWA has enough cash onhand to survive a complete shutdown for over 3 months. They right now have over 1.4 BILLION dollars in cash on hand. If anything, SWA stands to be the biggest US airline by this time next year.
Gocaps16 From Japan, joined Jan 2000, 4298 posts, RR: 23 Reply 12, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4612 times:
I think the smaller airline like Vanguard,Spirit, Sun Country, AirTran could possibly go out of business. Howevr, the government won't allow the bigger airlines to go bankrpt since they're gonna give them some money in which they really need it.
Trvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 24 Reply 13, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4604 times:
AA and UA may go bankrupt if things get even worse, but they cer. They are simply too important to the nation's air transportation system. USAirways may be a bit more "expendable" theoretically, but if they go bankrupt I think the government will prop them up too.
In any case, here are some airlines that I think are in danger of going bankrupt/bust:
I haven't formulated opinions for foreign airlines yet.
Mah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 31118 posts, RR: 73 Reply 15, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4581 times:
I'm sorry for sounding really rude here, but I know everyone on this board as a good knowledge of aviation, but by this thread it is so obvious that so many have absolutely NO business sense. Southwest Airlines is not going out of business, they are the only major US carrier that is still on track to make a profit and that is not expecting to layoff workers. American Airlines is the largest airline in the world. They will suffer, but survive. Same for UA, second largest. And if you have been paying attention to the new lately, you'd see how AMR Corp. and UAL Corp. are asking for protection against law suits, and will likely get it, since thier planes were used as weapons against thier control. AA and UA will, unless something suddenly changes, not have to worry about lawsuits. Pan Am is also only a small part of a huge and very rich transportation empire, of which thier airline operation is only a very small part of, and thier charter operations for the military make quite a profit for them.
AApilot2b From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 567 posts, RR: 1 Reply 16, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 4527 times:
Continental, United, and AA are not going bankrupt as of now. Industry analists actually predict that United and American have the greatest chance of surviving do to the nature of their size (Business Week magazine discusses this issue). Phoenix based America West Airlines took the largest losses and may very well be bankrupt in a couple of days if they do not receive some sort of cash infusion. They were already in bad shape before the recent events caused things to go royally bad for them. This is a tough time, but I beleive the airlines will rebound (especially the majors). It is certainly not the first time the industry has taken a hit.
AApilot2b From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 567 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 4521 times:
Oh! By the way, someone that predicts SouthWest will go bankrupt, obviously has no clue about the industry or any knowledge of "the world's most successful business story." They are the only airline to consistently remain profitable over the last 30 years.
VirginA340 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 15 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 4465 times:
VS going under!?! What bad crack have you been smoking?
Most likely is UA, AA, US and or CO
Airlines that not go under
SWA; Herb is doing well and he'll keep it that way. Herb has survived the Wright Amendment and AA's Robert Crandall; This is just a walk in the park for them. They'll do just fine. Not bad for a chain smoking biker from NJ
Jetblue will also do well. Dave is a smart man. He knows what he is doing.
AS737900 From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 343 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 4455 times:
Regarding AirOne including Alaska in the list of airlines that could go under one must remember that Alaska has a niche market... it IS Alaska's Airline and if you want to go somewhere you will be flying more than 9 times out of 10. Sure it could come upon some hard times with its lower 48 operations but I certainly don't think they will go bust...
As for my opinion on who I think may go under... America West, Vanguard, National (maybe, I wonder how their current promotion is doing...), perhaps US Airways.
Srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 16888 posts, RR: 51 Reply 23, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 4404 times:
National will be more than likely be the next airline to join Midway on the pile of clipped wings. Vanguard could be next up as well, since they are perhaps the next most financially troubled small carrier. AirTran could be in trouble if the downturn in the industry lasts more than six months. Frontier I think could survive this downturn if it doesn't last more than say a year. The smaller airlines will be the first to go under, followed by at least one of the majors. Among the 10 majors (AA/TWA, UAL, DAL, CO, WN, AWA, AS, U, NWA, ATA), I give U.S. Airways, America West, and ATA the highest probablity amongst the majors for going under. I think about half of the majors will file for Ch. 11 sometime in the next six months as well. These layoffs now number at over 100,000 employees, enough to fully staff another airline or two (major sized airline), and even more projected next week, as Delta announced tonight that there will be layoff announced between Monday and Wednesday of next week. If Delta's laying off people, you know it must be bad. Now if Southwest starts to layoff people (something they have never done in their history, and they are quite proud of it!) then we will definitely know the industry is in really bad shape. And I've haven't even touched Europe, whose airlines will feel some of the similar sting the airlines in the U.S. are now feeling. USA-Europe flights are major flights for many European carriers, so a downturn in Transatlantic travel will hurt these carriers as well. Airlines that you never would have thought would have financial troubles will be having them.
L-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29350 posts, RR: 62 Reply 24, posted (11 years 8 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 4386 times:
Alaska Airlines is going to be around. The the best of my knowledge the only flight that they are not flying is the ANC-DCA flight for obvious reasons.
What will be interesting with them is to see if Sen Stevens(R-AK) can get them that exception to continue flying Combi aircraft. Elimination of combi aircraft is one of the proposed new security measures.
Needless to say that is also a reccomendation that I don't think will do anything.
They also have a case reserve of about 400 mil. While that doesn't sound like much remember that they are smaller then a lot of other carriers. Also they reportedly have a credit line of 150 million available.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
25 SJC>SFO: Southwest will get through this fine. Their schedule is far more adaptable to market conditions, they own a huge percentage of their planes, and they
26 Teva: Panic is not a good advisor. Read this extract from a Ryanair CEO interview: ``The only way to defeat terrorism here is not to be standing there whing
27 John Walton: For your information Gill Airways was based at Newcastle Airport (NCL - EGNT), which is NOT IN SCOTLAND. But it is a shame that the Bank of Scotland w
28 Crj 900: I don't see where anyone would get the idea that Alaska Airlines or it's subsidiaries will be gone. They are going to try to work share etc before con
29 TimeForFlight: Let's not be idiots... 1) US Airways has been suffering, however, its not immediately int eh position of going under. 2) Virgin Atlantic doesnt JUST f
30 Glider: Another company which has serious problems is Sabena. They had their problems before, but with what happened they also lost lots of money on their can
31 Zoomer: I can't believe some of the c**p I've just read - probably written by guys who are still wetting their beds! For sure some airlines will bite the dust
32 N312RC: Zoomer.. Just because UAL and AA are big doesnt mean they will survive. Remember Pan Am 1? Southwest will survive, they have it together.
33 Lowfareair: >>American Airlines is the largest airline in the world. They will suffer, but survive. Same for UA, second largest.
34 Heavymetal: Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures... Two weeks ago the thought of spending 5 billion American dollars in direct payments to the airli