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Chances Of Cathay & Singapore Landing In Honolulu?  
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 940 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 7 hours ago) and read 5630 times:
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I don't expect HNL to catch up to LAX on the very important Asia-U.S market, but the way things are going is it safe to assume Cathay and Singapore will land in Honolulu sometime in the near future??

It seems like at least once a month some airline is increasing or launching services between the Pacific/Asia and Honolulu

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineroseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9495 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 hours ago) and read 5667 times:

With Hong Kong getting visa waiver, I can see it happening. However I doubt the demand will ever come close to that from Korea or Japan since people from warm weather climates are less interested in beach vacations. I don't know why anyone from Singapore would fly all the way to Hawaii just to visit some if the most expensive beach resorts where the water is frigid compared to their homeland. Phuket, Bali and Penang are all a cheap flight away for just as good beaches at a fraction of the price.

By the way the biggest transpacific route is close to a tie between LAX-NRT and HNL-NRT

[Edited 2013-07-25 17:29:14]


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User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24834 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 hours ago) and read 5624 times:

SQ served HNL previously. Anyhow SQ is the wrong airline with wrong product for Hawaii. It would be Scoot, but I have not heard them say a peep about it.

For Hong Kong, I can see HA there before ever CX looks to HNL. Here again, CX longhaul product is premium heavy.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinecheeken From Singapore, joined Feb 2010, 82 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5107 times:

There has never been strong promotion of Hawaii as a tourist destination here in Singapore, however I do see it happening if scoot decides to fly there from here with the 789s, might attract some traffic from around the region with transit services via tiger airways!

User currently offlineje89_w From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 2360 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (12 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4998 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
SQ served HNL previously. Anyhow SQ is the wrong airline with wrong product for Hawaii.

Yep, it was just a fuel stop for their LAX and SFO flights. Once those B744s came on board, it was aloha 'oe to HNL.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
It would be Scoot, but I have not heard them say a peep about it.

Especially not with the current aircraft in their fleet. It will be interesting to see how they expand once their B787s arrive.


User currently offlineflythere From Hong Kong, joined May 2010, 438 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (12 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4886 times:

Slim chance for CX to go to HNL indeed.

There are many more interesting destinations on Cathay's card and HNL isnt one for the time being. The rise of Lombok, Maldives, Okinawa and Laoag; The long-standing popular Phuket, Kota Kinabalu, Bali, Boracay, Samui, Cebu, Langkawi and even Sanya, there are just plenty of options to go for vacations.

Frequency-wise, it can never beat JL, NH or DL. And the increasing-trend of Chinese tourist doesnt justify either, for it takes a detour to Hawaii via HKG. I can see chance of HA coming to Hong Kong to give it a try but based on conservative approach of CX's route development, it's a no for CX. Unless CX has 5th freedom or some sort via TPE or KIX or NGO, then they might consider.


User currently offlineben175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 675 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (12 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 4766 times:

As I fly PER-HNL regularly, it would be a dream come true if SQ started SIN-HNL. But I am well aware this is a very slim chance.

User currently offlineSurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2848 posts, RR: 30
Reply 7, posted (12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4656 times:

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
I don't expect HNL to catch up to LAX on the very important Asia-U.S market

No, but HNL's level of Asian service relative to LAX is extremely impressive. Few transpacific pax connect through HNL (it is a rather out of the way connection point), so the airport really just serves a state with less than 1.5 million people and a primarily tourism-based economy. Even when it comes to HA, HNL-Asia flights rely almost exclusively on Hawaii's O&D (Oahu plus interisland connections).

Los Angeles arguably has as much tourist appeal as Hawaii, but also is a major global business hub with very strong socioeconomic ties to virtually all Pacific Rim countries, home to over 15 million people in the metropolitan area (more than 10x as many people as in all of Hawaii), and serves as a primary transpacific aviation gateway to the Americas (not just the U.S., but also Canada and Latin America). HNL may be geographically closer to Asia than LAX, but that point is essentially moot as any HNL-Asia service still requires the use of long haul widebody aircraft.

As such, I have great respect for the amount of transpacific service that HNL has. The mid-Atlantic equivalent of Hawaii would be the Azores, which have primary sociopolitical/socioeconomic ties to the slightly nearer continent (Europe) but are geographically almost halfway between continents. The Azores have tons of service to Europe, but almost none to North America. Granted, the Azores have a fraction of the population of Hawaii, a lower per capita GDP, and are not a world famous tourist destination, but I would still argue that HNL should be proud of all the Asian service it sustains long after the advent of aircraft that can fly North America-Asia/Australia nonstop.

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
the way things are going is it safe to assume Cathay and Singapore will land in Honolulu sometime in the near future??

Absolutely not. Asia's most esteemed full service carriers focus their expansion efforts on global business hubs (lots of high yielding business traffic paying for F and J), like GRU and IAH for SQ or AUH and ORD for CX. That said, CX did just announce new service to MLE, so I guess anything is possible.

Any HKG-HNL service would likely be contingent on the Hong Kong SAR joining the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP), thereby allowing Hong Kong passport holders hassle free entry to the U.S. for their Hawaiian vacations. As it stands today, Hong Kongers must go through the lengthy, arduous, and relatively expensive visa application process, making Hawaii a tough sell against alternatives like Phuket or Bali. As far as I understand, Hong Kong formally meets all published VWP criteria, but is still not eligible to join the program simply because it is not a fully sovereign nation. Recent Senate legislation was passed to change the rule requiring full sovereignty and facilitate Hong Kong's entry to the VWP, but then the recent escapades of Mr. Snowden in Hong Kong may have seriously complicated negotiation efforts... With all that said, Hong Kong joining the VWP would certainly not be a guarantee of CX to HKG or any other kind of nonstop/direct HKG-HNL service (such as HA) - it would merely be a prerequisite to making a HKG-HNL service viable.

Singapore has been a member of the Visa Waiver Program since 1999, yet there have been no attempts or even talk of a dedicated aviation link between HNL and SIN by SQ or any other carrier. I'm guessing the demand just isn't there. As roseflyer said, few people living on a developed/sophisticated tropical island are going to want to spend several days and thousands of dollars just to visit another one!

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
It seems like at least once a month some airline is increasing or launching services between the Pacific/Asia and Honolulu

True, but a lot of this has been HA. All of their recent expansion has not (yet?) proven to be profitable, and the airline is now slamming the brakes on growth as it seeks to gain traction in all of its new foreign markets. MNL aside, hopefully their efforts will ultimately prove successful. HA is our nation's best long haul carrier and I would love to see them doing well.

As for other Asian carriers, the Visa Waiver Program is the main consideration. Mainland China-Hawaii could potentially be a huge market, but few Chinese citizens are willing to jump through hoops to take a Hawaiian vacation per the current visa rules. As such, there are few opportunities for China-HNL at this time.



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User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4573 times:
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Quoting Surfandsnow (Reply 7):
That said, CX did just announce new service to MLE, so I guess anything is possible.

Cathay is targeting the growing China-Maldives market with the introduction of the HKG-MLE route. CX and KA operate to 20 destinations in mainland China via the HKG hub and CX will be able to offer more connections between mainland China and MLE compared to carriers such as SQ.


User currently offlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9719 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (12 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4449 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
Cathay is targeting the growing China-Maldives market with the introduction of the HKG-MLE route. CX and KA operate to 20 destinations in mainland China via the HKG hub and CX will be able to offer more connections between mainland China and MLE compared to carriers such as SQ.

Are there any Chinese airlines flying to MLE or planning in doing so? That would make CX's flight obsolete should that eventually happen. In that case SkyTeam Chinese connection is the big winner here as they have the largest presence/coverage in China. If Air China starts flying too directly from China that gives Star Alliance an edge as well. If there indeed is a growing China-Maldives market, I'm sure Chinese airlines will follow soon with direct flights from mainland China...

A388


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24834 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4251 times:

#1 visitor nationality to Maldives in 2012 were Chinese. Its a growing demand market CX is well positioned to capture.

Also CX can serve route with one of many A330s, its regional workhorse.

Much less risk, and much shorter route than a true longhaul to Hawaii.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8204 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 4196 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 10):
#1 visitor nationality to Maldives in 2012 were Chinese. Its a growing demand market CX is well positioned to capture.
Also CX can serve route with one of many A330s, its regional workhorse.
Much less risk, and much shorter route than a true longhaul to Hawaii.

By a similar token, the Chinese spend more money in Hawaii than any other nationality and I suspect their numbers will also grow significantly in the near future. So if CX can cater to Chinese demand for MLE, why not do the same for HNL?
Indeed MLE is a much shorter route and therefore less risky but if the demand exists, and i believe it will exist in a couple of years, that should take care of the risk issue. And the A359 will be a much better plane for it too. The only question in my mind is whether HNL will be served by CX or by KA.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 12, posted (12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4091 times:

I thought the highest number of tourists visiting Maldives are Europeans while Japanese visit Hawaii the most. Also they spend the most too.

User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4052 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
By a similar token, the Chinese spend more money in Hawaii than any other nationality and I suspect their numbers will also grow significantly in the near future. So if CX can cater to Chinese demand for MLE, why not do the same for HNL?
Indeed MLE is a much shorter route and therefore less risky but if the demand exists, and i believe it will exist in a couple of years, that should take care of the risk issue. And the A359 will be a much better plane for it too. The only question in my mind is whether HNL will be served by CX or by KA.

Just take Beijing as an example :


PEK (40°04'48"N 116°35'04"E) MLE (4°11'30"N 73°31'45"E) 238.9° (SW) 3644 mi
2 segment path: 4211 mi (+15.5%)
PEK (40°04'48"N 116°35'04"E) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 188.1° (S) 1234 mi
HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) MLE (4°11'30"N 73°31'45"E) 251.3° (W) 2976 mi

PEK (40°04'48"N 116°35'04"E) HNL (21°19'07"N 157°55'21"W) 75.9° (E) 5062 mi
2 segment path: 6803 mi (+34.4%)
PEK (40°04'48"N 116°35'04"E) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 188.1° (S) 1234 mi
HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) HNL (21°19'07"N 157°55'21"W) 70.7° (E) 5568 mi

PEK-MLE is only a 15% detour via HKG (and probably the shortest given few connections going via DEL).

PEK-HNL, on the other hand, is a major detour (34%), and is much more inefficient compared to ICN or NRT.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24834 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4034 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
By a similar token, the Chinese spend more money in Hawaii than any other nationality and I suspect their numbers will also grow significantly in the near future. So if CX can cater to Chinese demand for MLE, why not do the same for HNL?

Because HKG is on the way to the Maldives from China, while Hawaii would be back tracking. PVG-Hawaii via HKG is 1,400miles longer than a direct routing. And its even worse from PEK for example.

Second CX is very conservative when it comes to long-haul ops. They have even dropped some major markets in Europe.

Lastly, CX is the wrong product for Hawaii. Its longhaul fleet are rather heavy with premium seats.

As far as Chinese in Hawaii, the arrival volume today is still rather tiny. Yes they spend lots of money (as they do in mainland also), and there is a future, but for now the volume is quite low still.
You have HA starting service to PEK next year, and MU does HNL 3x weekly at the moment from PVG.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 12):

I thought the highest number of tourists visiting Maldives are Europeans while Japanese visit Hawaii the most. Also they spend the most too.

Maldives tourism stats in below link. Chinese were the #1 largest visitors group both in 2011 and 2012.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ese-demand-for-the-maldives-120017

For Hawaii, yes Japan market is the largest non North America market to Hawaii.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineYLWbased From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 824 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (12 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 4022 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 9):
Are there any Chinese airlines flying to MLE or planning in doing so?

MU also operates to MLE via CMB

YLWbased



Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24824 posts, RR: 22
Reply 16, posted (12 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3725 times:

Highly unlikely CX or SQ with their premiium-heavy products will ever serve HNL which is almost totally a leisure market. And there are sunny beach resorts thousands of miles closer to HKG and SIN than HNL.

User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 963 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (12 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3504 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 16):
And there are sunny beach resorts thousands of miles closer to HKG and SIN than HNL.

Visitors originating in SIN or HKG don't have the same lust for Hawaii retail shopping as do the Chinese, #1 in per capita spending but due to still small numbers nowhere near the #1 foreign nationals in spending.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 18, posted (12 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3377 times:

So who spends the most in Hawaii absolute wise? Japanese? Per capita too?

[Edited 2013-07-26 20:32:01]

User currently offlinesq_ek_freak From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2000, 1633 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (12 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3367 times:

Quoting A388 (Reply 9):
Are there any Chinese airlines flying to MLE or planning in doing so? That would make CX's flight obsolete should that eventually happen. In that case SkyTeam Chinese connection is the big winner here as they have the largest presence/coverage in China. If Air China starts flying too directly from China that gives Star Alliance an edge as well. If there indeed is a growing China-Maldives market, I'm sure Chinese airlines will follow soon with direct flights from mainland China...

CZ also operates to MLE from CAN using a regionally configured B777-200.



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User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (12 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3331 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 10):
#1 visitor nationality to Maldives in 2012 were Chinese. Its a growing demand market CX is well positioned to capture.

  
IMO, CX will gradually increase frequency on the route.

Quoting sq_ek_freak (Reply 19):
CZ also operates to MLE from CAN using a regionally configured B777-200.

As well as:
HU PEK-MLE 3x weekly B767
3U CTU-MLE 3x weekly A330
CZ CAN-MLE 2x weekly B772

Plus MEGA Maldives Airlines serves mainland China, as well as HKG:
http://megamaldivesair.com/view.php?id=1509&page=planning


User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (12 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3301 times:

Quoting YLWbased (Reply 15):
MU also operates to MLE via CMB

it was also operated as China-Male-Johannesburg with A343 around 2007, entire route was then suspended.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (12 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3242 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 14):
Because HKG is on the way to the Maldives from China

Some mainland China connections available to MLE via HKG on CX/KA, (CX will also offer connections to MLE from Korea and Japan):
http://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_H...here-we-fly.html#.UfNE85M2WGE.link


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (12 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 3025 times:

What about the local Hong Kong market to Maldives and Hawaii? High demand?

User currently offlinepualani From United States of America, joined May 2004, 301 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (12 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2842 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 18):
So who spends the most in Hawaii absolute wise? Japanese? Per capita too?

Our VP of Acct says the Chinese spend on average $400 per day compared to the Japanese who spend $300 per day.


User currently offlineB-HOP From Hong Kong, joined Nov 2000, 623 posts, RR: 1
Reply 25, posted (12 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 2754 times:

Unless a visa waiver granted I do not see a HNL-HKG feasible, success of HKT/BKI are that you only need one day of absences to make it three days, a long weekend would bring it up to four, given how precious leave most Hong Konger 's has (7 or 14 days plus public holiday), a ten hour trip each direction would have got them to Europe or fancy resort in Mauritius and Seychelles, why HNL, beside there are little VFR to HNL too. If someone do it, it might be Jetstar/Scoot serving both HKG/HKG, unlikely to be from mainline of both carriers


Live life to max!!!
User currently offlineinfinit From Singapore, joined Jul 2008, 540 posts, RR: 1
Reply 26, posted (12 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2459 times:

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 1):
With Hong Kong getting visa waiver, I can see it happening. However I doubt the demand will ever come close to that from Korea or Japan since people from warm weather climates are less interested in beach vacations. I don't know why anyone from Singapore would fly all the way to Hawaii just to visit some if the most expensive beach resorts where the water is frigid compared to their homeland. Phuket, Bali and Penang are all a cheap flight away for just as good beaches at a fraction of the price.

By the way the biggest transpacific route is close to a tie between LAX-NRT and HNL-NRT

I think so too.

As many others here have suggested, these airlines are more orientated to large business hubs.

But between the two, maybe CX or another Chinese carrier could make Hawaii work.. It's a very popular leisure destination with the Japanese and an increasing number of Koreans and Chinese so CX being geographically in North Asia could be well positioned.

Hawaii doesn't seem to have much appeal to Singaporeans or Southeast Asians in general. I can't even imagine it working with Scoot. Furthermore SQ's regional wing, MI, is growing much more rapidly than their parent company and I think that's partly due to the exotic destinations in this region they dominate market-share wise, some of which are excellent beach resorts. If there's any futher-away beach destination the SQ family of companies is likely to add, I think it's going to be Okinawa with MI


User currently offlineYLWbased From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 824 posts, RR: 4
Reply 27, posted (12 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2136 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 23):
What about the local Hong Kong market to Maldives and Hawaii? High demand?

With the air fare to MLE going down, more and more locals are heading there for vacation. And there is also a trend shift among the locals, who now seems to enjoy sunshine destinations more than city resorts, which was all the way around up to about 5 years ago.

BTW, i just booked myself to Seychelles for Apr next year and I'm a local :p

YLWbased



Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9160 posts, RR: 15
Reply 28, posted (12 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1911 times:

Any chance for CX to fly LHR-JFK which they applied for the rights and got them? Also Central/South America which they said they would venture the south

User currently offlinewowpeter From Hong Kong, joined Oct 2006, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (12 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1732 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 28):
Any chance for CX to fly LHR-JFK which they applied for the rights and got them? Also Central/South America which they said they would venture the south

Would be awesome if CX does fly LHR-JFK, CX did have the right to fly the route... however, I think the major headache on that is the lack of slot in LHR... plus the super competitive market at Trans-Atlantic flight, you can't really compete with 1 or 2 flights a day when all the other carrier have around the clock frequency each day on the route... So the chance of that happening will be quite slim, but it will be awesome to see CX fly across the Atlantic but I know this is all wishful thinking  


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8280 posts, RR: 7
Reply 30, posted (12 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1701 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 14):
Lastly, CX is the wrong product for Hawaii. Its longhaul fleet are rather heavy with premium seats.

Cathay 777-300ER are the wrong plane with their heavy First & J class cabins but other planes in CX's fleet may have the right balance between J seat and Y seats. Cathay flies a ton of A330-300 to Australia daily with no First Class Cabin, so wouldn't an A333 work from HKG to HNL ? Its probably about 10 hours to Hawaii from Hong Kong so an A330-300 should have no problem.


User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (12 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1655 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 30):
Cathay 777-300ER are the wrong plane with their heavy First & J class cabins but other planes in CX's fleet may have the right balance between J seat and Y seats. Cathay flies a ton of A330-300 to Australia daily with no First Class Cabin, so wouldn't an A333 work from HKG to HNL ? Its probably about 10 hours to Hawaii from Hong Kong so an A330-300 should have no problem.

CX has no 332s so let's focus on 333s. The longest 333 flight anywhere in Czech ICN-PRG at 5131mi.

HKG-HNL is 5568mi (and subject to strong TPAC jetstream currents).

Maybe some of the newest 333 builds could make it work, but not sure if CX really wants to enter the market that's Y-heavy. A 788 may make it work financially, but CX doesn't have those on order.


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