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A380 Or B747-8i? CX Weighs Up Its Options  
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 26456 times:

“As for double deckers, nothing is excluded, it’s more a question of whether or not on selected routes there’s a need for a double decker” says Toby Smith, Cathay Pacific’s General Manager, Product.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/airbus-a380-...thay-pacific-weighs-up-its-options

109 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 26381 times:

Quote:
“As for double deckers, nothing is excluded, it’s more a question of whether or not on selected routes there’s a need for a double decker” Smith tells Australian Business Traveller.

“For example, we now have four flights a day to Sydney. Would we go to five? Well actually we haven’t got any more rights – that’s still being looked at – so potentially that could be one market where you might see them, but it’s not on the horizon.”

Any order for either 748 or A380 is years away, it seems. And it sounds like CX is more interested in getting an extra slot at Sydney than using higher capacity aircraft.


User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5873 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 26250 times:

I thought we decided a couple weeks ago that CX wasn't going to spring for either aircraft?

User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10763 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 26222 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
I thought we decided a couple weeks ago that CX wasn't going to spring for either aircraft?

Tactics to get a better price I would say.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9149 posts, RR: 76
Reply 4, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 26052 times:

Quoting art (Reply 1):

Operating a 744 today to SYD as 138.

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):

That was people putting words into Ivan's mouth. They have not ruled out anything, including the 787.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently onlineNZ107 From New Zealand, joined Jul 2005, 6436 posts, RR: 38
Reply 5, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25833 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
Operating a 744 today to SYD as 138.

Yeah well that's surely got to be more to do with the typhoon than anything else (plus I feel for those in Y!). Although I'd love to see them start using the 77W to SYD to increase capacity. I partly expected them to be the launch customer for the 777X but LH beat them to that.



It's all about the destination AND the journey.
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2988 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25695 times:

If SYD was doing that well for them, I would have expected larger aircraft by now. But hey, in future, at this rate many routes will need more capacity and given the impasse on building additional capacity in some cities, the only way will be larger aircraft.

Theres a few routes they could use larger aircraft on, but I guess its all up to what works.


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3790 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25563 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
That was people putting words into Ivan's mouth.

In their defense, it's been pretty easy to get fooled by reading the not so subtle message between the lines.
CX has been pretty vocal about its passionate love for twins lately, and everything led to believe that they weren't interested at anything bigger and especially not with more engines.

Still, you'd have to be blind not to see a place for a VLA in CX.
The risk of operating a relatively small fleet could be easily hedged by the number of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 daily destinations they already operate.

Or could that be the proverbial foot in the door for the 748i interim lease rumor?



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8419 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 25161 times:
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Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes. With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving. Bigger may not be better but it may be inevitable.

User currently onlineNZ107 From New Zealand, joined Jul 2005, 6436 posts, RR: 38
Reply 9, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 25071 times:

I also wonder if they're waiting for more data on the A380HGW. HKG-JFK is a long flight and it's crucial that they can fly fully loaded out of there. LHR, LAX and JFK are 3 routes which could utilise the A380. SYD could also be added to that but I think they would want to retain frequency rather than merging two flights into an A380.


It's all about the destination AND the journey.
User currently offlineKengo From Japan, joined Apr 2013, 184 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 25042 times:

I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.

User currently offlinesankaps From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2255 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 24901 times:

Quoting Kengo (Reply 10):
I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.

Me too, though I think it is a VERY long shot...  


User currently offlinejustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1062 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 24782 times:

No 748i unfortunately I think (and I love the 747). I mean, with the 779, why? LH has gone 779 and they already own 748's. A380 has a meaningful capacity difference, so worth considering. I think they 779 is the end of the line for the Queen. The 77W was bad enough competition for the 748, the 779 means finito......

User currently offlineAirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2013 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 24690 times:

Quoting Kengo (Reply 10):
I have nothing against the A380 and I believe it's a fantastic plane. However, if and when CX decides to order VLA, my hope is for the 748i as having one more customer will ensure longer flying life for the Queen.

I think Boeing has hit the final nail in the 748i coffin with the 777-9. The real choice is between more big twins or the A380, and so far it's the former that is winning.



it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
User currently offlineAzure From France, joined Dec 2012, 629 posts, RR: 16
Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 24425 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving

You can add to your list 2 daily flights to CDG (CX 261/260 - CX 279/278).




Quoting francoflier (Reply 7):
Still, you'd have to be blind not to see a place for a VLA in CX.
The risk of operating a relatively small fleet could be easily hedged by the number of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 daily destinations they already operate.

  



I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things - A. de Saint Exupery
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31096 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24234 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes.

The A350-1000 or 777-300ER would provide a significant capacity boost over the A330-300 on those frequencies. Heck, the A350-900 would increase Economy seating if that is where the demand is.



Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
With 5 flights daily to London, 4 to JFK, 3 to LAX and 2 to SFO the question of bigger is arriving.

And yet they've rolled back from the 747-400 to the smaller 777-300ER on most, if not all, of those frequencies.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8419 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24193 times:
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The VLA question a Cathay is one of being prudent. Thai and Malaysian purchased A380's to keep up with "Singapore Air". Cathay doesn't need to prove anything. The 77W hauls more frieght then an A380 could and maybe cargo is more important then an extra 150 passengers per flight. Even Air China has not purchased A380, they have a ton of 777's. IF the flagship China airline doesn't have A380's, should Cathay ?

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31096 posts, RR: 85
Reply 17, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24163 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Even Air China has not purchased A380, they have a ton of 777's.

And five (soon to be seven) 747-8 Intercontinentals.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17649 posts, RR: 46
Reply 18, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24052 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Cathay is facing an Aussie frequency probalem as they have a 70 flight limit per week. They are already at their 70 flight limit with A330 flying the routes.

If they're capacity constrained why are they operating all flights on their smallest equipment?



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 988 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 23941 times:

Quoting na (Reply 3):
Tactics to get a better price I would say.

IF they actually choose either one instead of a twin they're going to get a hell of a price. AB and BA are both desperate for sales of their VLA's. Myself I'm rooting for the 747-8i...would hate to see the 747 line come to an end.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31096 posts, RR: 85
Reply 20, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 23788 times:
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Quoting HiFlyerAS (Reply 19):
IF (CX) actually choose either one instead of a twin they're going to get a hell of a price. AB and BA are both desperate for sales of their VLA's.

I do not see Boeing offering CX a greater-than-50% discount on the 747-8 if they can secure a 777-9 order at a less-than-50% discount. Otherwise, I would have expected LH to exercise their 747-8 purchase rights as opposed to buying the 777-9.

IMO, the 747-8 was a bad idea and it's poor execution only made it worse. They should have just closed the line last decade and focused on the 777neo.


User currently offlinenicoeddf From Germany, joined Jan 2008, 1101 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 23589 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
Thai and Malaysian purchased A380's to keep up with "Singapore Air".

So your argument is to not do what the competitor does "just for the sake of it" when it comes to buying A380.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16):
IF the flagship China airline doesn't have A380's, should Cathay ?

But when it comes to NOT buying the aircraft, it is relevant and justified to "just do what the competitor does"?

Interesting argumentation...  


User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10763 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 23336 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
IMO, the 747-8 was a bad idea and it's poor execution only made it worse. They should have just closed the line last decade and focused on the 777neo.

From an economical standpoint the 748I might be flawed as Boeing and especially GE did a bad job (I´d have wished they would have done bad on the 77W and overdeliver on the 748i but that ship has sailed). From a passenger standpoint the 748I is a great plane and the 777-9X simply cant do better as the 748 interior architecture is superior than any 777 could ever be.
The freighter has its justification also in the long term. It has no competition. That it currently doesnt sell is due to the bad market, look at the 777F and A330F which are also selling badly.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 984 posts, RR: 51
Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 23111 times:

Quoting na (Reply 22):
That it currently doesnt sell is due to the bad market, look at the 777F and A330F which are also selling badly.

Boeing has sold nearly as many 777F as it has 763F and 744F/744ERF, despite the latter two models being on offer for far longer.

777F - 127 units (Launched 2005)
763F - 130 units (Launched 1993)
744F/744ERF - 126+40 = 166 units (Launched 1989/2001)

I'd say that's about as well as one would hope for a widebody freighter, especially given the market conditions you noted.


User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1598 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 23002 times:

This seems to be a small repeat article of topic already well discussed.

Cathay Pacific COO: No VLA Needed (by LAXintl Jul 29 2013 in Civil Aviation)


Also last weeks 777X order pretty clearly points to where CX is going.


25 Stitch : I have found the 747 family to be far poorer in terms of internal cabin design compared to the 777. The 747-8 addresses that failing rather well than
26 trex8 : Given the degree of "central" control of the Chinese airlines, that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot. Whether they have, or want, a particular ai
27 Triple Seven : 748i is definitely not out of the question. CX business decision might also hinge on the 748F factor as well. Is the 747 product dead with the 777-9??
28 na : I am of a totally opposite opinion. The 748F was launched later and did sell similarly well, and one shouldnt forget the 777F covers a larger part of
29 Post contains images EPA001 : I think so too. Yes, it is all a matter of economics and operational issues. I still think CX will in the end order A380's. Or maybe they are one of
30 tortugamon : Despite its impressive backlog I think only 5 have been delivered this year. That underpins customer's lack of current demand for freighters. I canno
31 Post contains images Stitch : At 76m, the 747-8 is at the lower end of Boeing's various extended-length 747 concepts (the 747-400X Stretch and the 747-500X were both 78m, the 747X
32 gegarrenton : It's certainly subjective. I love the 747 inside, by far my favorite place on any plane is the nose of one.
33 Post contains images Stitch : Yes it is (see below). See, I hate the nose. Since I am fortunate to fly First when I fly, I go out of my way to avoid booking 747s because I have to
34 Speedbored : I'm with you on that. Having been lucky enough to work for people who've been happy for me to travel up front, my favourite cabin has always been the
35 kanban : I agree, however rather than see the nail in the 747-8i as an unintended action by idiots, I believe overlapping products in the short term (10 years
36 Post contains links LAXintl : 777-9 is in Cathay's future --- CX Talks: Africa Routes, 77W & 777-9X, LCCs, Cargo (by LAXintl Sep 12 2013 in Civil Aviation) CEO has now multiple
37 KarelXWB : Indeed, I thought this horse has been beaten to death? But what a CEO says today can change tomorrow. Airlines re-evaluate their strategies from time
38 Kengo : My first flight as a passenger was on a JAL 747-100 when I was 7 years old and to this day, I remember walking into the 747 with amaze in my eyes. It
39 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Anything is possible, but CX has said VLAs are unlikely several times this year alone. I really don't see a need for them in CX' network anyway, othe
40 Stitch : The A380-800F was a non-starter, IMO, so I view the 747-8F as a wasted effort.
41 kaitak : The only way I could see the 747-8 coming into CX's passenger fleet would be where CX finds that it needs a capacity bridge for the six years until th
42 avek00 : The key word is A330. If Cathay was truly hurting for capacity to Australia, they'd deploy more 777s.
43 cmf : The trend has turned and the latest ships are built to go slower and the existing ships are typically running slower than they used to.
44 Post contains images gegarrenton : I love it mainly because there is zero pass through traffic (which is really the major reason), and in row 1 you can watch the entire landing pattern
45 pnwtraveler : Companies exist to make money. Therefore it is better to sell seats at the highest possible amount and then when you have to, sell lower priced seats.
46 jfk777 : Cathay's options are A330 or 777. They have some 744 which are being phased out. The A333 may be their smallest plane but it doesn't have First Class
47 einsteinboricua : If a VLA is ordered, this one will definitely be Airbus's to lose, but only a small subfleet. I don't see over 10 of either being ordered.
48 cmf : Many successful companies disagree. Look at Walmart, look at McDonalds, look at Aldi in Germany. Ryanair is a great example in aviation. There is a l
49 gegarrenton : There is virtually no parallel between these companies and airlines. These companies operate that way due to gigantic scale that no airline could eve
50 jfk777 : My argument is that Thai and Malaysia "only" reason was to keep up with Singapore Air, no really ggod reason other then that. Cadillac can make a $90
51 cmf : What is so different?
52 JAAlbert : I can't believe CX's comments are even news. Despite the teasing headline, the article starts off with the statement that we shouldn't expect CX to or
53 avek00 : The business case for a double-decker VLA at CX has steadily vanished over the past decade: 1. For years, Cathay (including Dragonair) served as a sh
54 cmf : have you looked at the times of the 4 existing non-stop flights? Not a single one of them has a good schedule. It isn't a route where additional freq
55 gegarrenton : Walmart has as much revenue as the entire airline industry annually. There is no comparison in volume unless you posit there is going to be an airlin
56 cmf : Is it that different? Walmart has about 11,000 stores giving about 40 MUSD revenue per store. Unites serve some 1,000 destinations giving about 34 MU
57 KarelXWB : It's very clear that we won't see any VLA's in the CX fleet in the short term, or at least not before 2020. As for possible routes, I think a A380 st
58 Post contains images nicoeddf : There are a hundred reasons not to buy a specific aircraft, the A380 obviously included. But the fact, that one of your shareholder airlines is not b
59 gegarrenton : Yes, completely different. As volume increases, margin can decrease.
60 Viscount724 : It's surprising how people's opinions differ. In my experience there's simply nothing to compare with the nose of a 747. By far the best place to fly
61 cmf : Airlines have a lot of volume.
62 SEPilot : I expect CX to buy the 779, and forego both the A380 and 748i. I believe that CX has said the A388 has insufficient cargo space, and if they are looki
63 gegarrenton : Not even a blip compared to Walmart.
64 cmf : Per product and location they do. One of my projects was a stitching company selling bras to Walmart. We supplied 3 - 5 pcs per model/size and store.
65 solarflyer22 : I agree but the problem is they have those 744s that they can't punt in the meantime. What if the 779 gets delayed two years? They have to be bleedin
66 waly777 : In addition and I believe the primary difference btw the airlines and those companies is how the product stocks are dealt with regards to sales. Once
67 tortugamon : The 747s will not be around that long and the 77Ws don't have that many less seats. The 26-A351s will give them a bump in 2017-2020 as well. tortugam
68 LAXintl : 744 are leaving the fleet -- matter of fact they are off the bulk of long-haul flying already in favor of the 77W. Per CX, all pax 744s will be gone
69 lutfi : As the reply above - CX will have got rid of the 747 passenger aircraft before B779 EIS anyway - replaced by B773/A350
70 cmf : A problem existing in just about every industry. An easy example is the restaurant business. Probably harder to understand is that it exists in prett
71 JAAlbert : I agree, and this view has been widely discussed. Walmart? Did I miss something? I thought this is a thread about CX mulling whether to choose the 38
72 waly777 : I will have to disagree there, this something unique to airlines. Restaurants can very well store left over unprepared food in the freezers and fridg
73 tortugamon : An empty seat on a departing flight is not unlike an unused bed in a hotel or an unused seat in a non-full restaurant. In fact, full restaurants bege
74 comorin : I love the awesome crunch of the nose gear on takeoff, but on BA I prefer Club World upstairs; and of course LH's upper deck F has that empty sleeper
75 waly777 : Whilst there are similarities....they are still very different. During breakfast, lunch, dinner service etc. Those seats can be re-used over and over
76 astuteman : And yet during the GFC, it was abundantly clear that the A380's being flown at the time experienced both more resilient load factors AND more resilie
77 RedChili : When it comes to LHR, I seem to recall that they had three or four daily flights a few years ago. And the day-time westbound flights were usually ope
78 zeke : Correct, upguaged to 4 destinations to clear the backlog. However on a regional level this happens daily, we do not cap the number of seats sold regi
79 na : I fully agree with you. How miserable and ordinary in comparison the walk-trough cabin in a 77W is! Not even the A380 can beat the nose section of a
80 CX Flyboy : There are rumours of a first class product being offered on the SYD service at some point in the future with suggestions it would be a non-Airbus rat
81 Post contains images cmf : I've been fortunate by having worked in a lot of different industries and in a lot of different countries. Just about every time someone told me they
82 waly777 : Oh please, enough of this constant a380 victim nonsense. @ no point was the a380 picked on, if you read from reply45 where this started off you would
83 waly777 : I haven't said or try to pretend that aviation isn't sold on volume, I do agree it is the principle however the circumstances surrounding it are uniq
84 jfk777 : Now that the Qantas/BA partnership is done BA is code sharing with Cathay from HKG to Aussie cities, that may increase the need for an First Class ca
85 EPA001 : That would be very interesting......
86 Post contains images gegarrenton : I was wondering where in the heck the A380 came into the discussion? [Edited 2013-09-24 05:20:34][Edited 2013-09-24 05:54:13]
87 RayChuang : With LH now committed to the 777-9X, I'd put my money now on CX buying the 777-9X to essentially phase out the entire 747-400 fleet.
88 zeke : There are also rumours that Dragonair are starting SYD and CNS, rumours are rumours. If you look at the load factors, they would not support a 77W th
89 cmf : You have not been able to describe what makes aviation fundamentally different meaning volume sales doesn't work. Especially not since many airlines
90 tortugamon : I thought you were describing perishable-asset revenue management practices, and I was just saying that other perishable services deal with that all
91 zeke : Around 80 seats or 20% difference, or the other way to look at it is 4x74K services a day is still more capacity than 5x77H services.
92 tortugamon : True but with 7 more in J (and the seat has more pitch), 8 more in W, and a wider seat in Y while carrying more cargo. 3 less in F though. Not saying
93 flyinghippo : There are only 3 non stop flights. What's wrong with CX flight times? JFK-HKG route is a premium heavy route for CX, and they scheduled it to best su
94 skipness1E : I think Cathay does care for it's passengers and with respect, I know you love flying in the exclusive wee cabin in the nose, something most of us ca
95 Post contains images CXB77L : It's hard to fathom how you can make that statement when there have been no images, let alone mock-ups, of a 777X cabin. I would agree with that. But
96 RedChili : I would venture a guess that he's thinking about such unique 747 features as the privacy of the nose and the upper deck. You don't need a mock-up of
97 francoflier : That said, there is nothing out there that will compare to the quietness and exclusiveness of the 747's forward cabin, especially when configured in
98 zeke : With an X after the 777, 777X. I think we will need to wait for a mock-up of the aircraft to see how that additional X really looks.
99 frigatebird : Something that came up in the 747-8 production thread after an inquiry by CX Flyboy concerning production slots in 2014 was this: There was a short di
100 Stitch : Does CX need the extra capacity of the 747-8? They have sufficient 777-300ERs on order to more than replace the remaining 747-400s in service.
101 na : The basic architecture will be the same. Ordinary square compartments in a row like everywhere except on 747 and less so A380. Boeing. Not that moot
102 KarelXWB : Perhaps zeke can tell us something about this rumor?
103 B-HOP : They do need the seats both in some regional routes that have limit rights or not feasible yet for another flight, e.g KIX/CTS/DPS or when demand war
104 Post contains images NAV20 : 'Interesting times.' I think myself, looking at the world market, that there are two possible 'outcomes.' On the one hand, the 779X (and later, presu
105 travelhound : With Wal-Mart you have volume (and the associated cost of delivery economics) and one stop shop convenience meaning smaller retailers have problems c
106 Stitch : Assuming 2015-2016 deliveries for all 10 frames, that would be a usable period as little as five years (assuming 777-9 deliveries start in 2021)! Wou
107 B-HOP : There are slot for CA as soon as next year, along with unassigned slot discussed earlier and one that LH didn't take. 5-7 years would a stop gap, well
108 kaitak : Don't forget that CX will require a significant fleet of 779s, not all of which would be delivered in 2019-2020. They would likely be phased in over a
109 Post contains images Stitch : The problem with the 747-400BCF is the high price of Jet A so to fix that problem, Boeing would need to score a significant new source of crude.
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