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Competing With DXB  
User currently offlineAircanadaA330 From Canada, joined Aug 2008, 294 posts, RR: 0
Posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 8966 times:
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Hi everyone,

I got thinking after reading the thread regarding why EK is wide body only. It was mentioned that Dubai does not have a large O&D. With that, EK is a huge airline, and growing larger everyday. They primarily rely on pax transferring much like a global hub. In the past, it was noted that Ethiopian Airlines is looking to compete with EK as a global hub.

With all that in mind, I started to think. Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK? Take a small airline in Africa or Central Asia, and have them start connecting flights between Asia/Europe/Australia. I am not suggesting an airline with 90 A380s on order, but with the 767/787/A330 families. Would it not be possible to be profitable?

I know that with enough money anything is possible, but I am talking about an airline being profitable.

what are your thoughts?


Cheers;


Cheers;
62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8875 times:
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In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia. But Africa is too far south to be a competitive connecting point between the two, Kenya or Ethiopia are. Istanbul and Turkish Air are are trying to do a "Dubai" in Istanbul and to a degree they may succeded, but the airport is bursting at the seams.

In 25 years, if Africa's economic promise is finally realized to some degree with oil and mineral wealth, Kenya Airways & Ethiopian Air could have tripple the planes they have today. Kenya Air has a decent fleet of 777, including 77W's, and flies to China. Ethiopian is flying to the PRC and Brazil plus Toronto and Washington, so they have an anchor in all parts of the world. Ethiopian can't be too far from flying to Australia, Perth should be possible from Addis Abbaba.

I am sadened that Gulf Air, which was the main airline for the UAE and Bahrain, has been left behind when it was the airline with a huge history in that part of the world. Love those L-1011's in the 1970's, sorry I never got on one.


User currently offlinealfa164 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 470 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8669 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia.

As long as India requires a visa for anyone who needs to transit that country, its airlines will be at a tremendous disadvantage in the world market. It is effectively limiting itself to O&D traffic.


User currently offlineopethfan From Canada, joined Dec 2012, 521 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8656 times:

I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia, allowing it to be a hub connecting mid sized cities on both sides of the Pacific which otherwise wouldn't have international TPAC service.

But it hasn't happened as such, so I guess it isn't viable.


User currently offlineAyostoLeon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8581 times:

An airline that set itself the goal of being a serious contender is Qatar Airways. Based in Doha the airline enjoys similar geographic location advantages to Dubai. It too has been expanding at a fair rate in recent years, serving 128 destinations, and has quite a few aircraft of various types on order. What's more they will benefit from the construction of the new international airport.

How profitable QR is I can't say.


User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7188 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8567 times:

Believe it or not, Athens would be great. Maybe a way of reviving the greek economy?

Quoting opethfan (Reply 3):
I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia

and doable Australia-Europe, Asia-South America. Only Africa misses out on direct capability.

AKL by the same regard can do South Africa,Asia, North and South America with direct services.

I think PTY would be a great hub for the world. Only Asia would require a multi-stop. CM should get some long-range jets... 

And if we're thinking of off the wall hubs. how about HRE or FIH? They could work with aircraft in the 7200nm-8000nm range. FIH looks kick arse. Not much of the habitated world unobtainable except the Pacific ocean.


User currently offlineSpiderguy252 From India, joined Feb 2009, 280 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 8389 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
In theory a India could since in the middle of the world between Europe and Asia.

It's not competing with DXB (and you can say that again), but a sizeable chunk of travellers do stop by BOM to travel onward to BKK by 9W, or at DEL to travel to other Indian cities on the AI connectors, or the new 787 flight to SYD. It's obviously a far smaller number than anything at DXB, but it appears to be encouraging signs at this point.



Figure .09
User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7188 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8256 times:

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 4):
How profitable QR is I can't say.

The new airport is vital for them now. DOH is curently hopeless as an airport. Their profits will soar once they shift


User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3203 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7787 times:

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
I got thinking after reading the thread regarding why EK is wide body only. It was mentioned that Dubai does not have a large O&D.

This was debunked in that very thread, as it has in others.
DXB - July Traffic Data, Some Interesting Facts (by factsonly Sep 1 2013 in Civil Aviation)



FLYi
User currently offlinejox From Sweden, joined Jan 2003, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7717 times:
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Location isn't everything. Even if LLA has 3300 m runway (cold-and-low), good weather, and you can reach more or less the whole populated globe within 7500 nm (SE Australia is some 8200 nm away) - There aren't 40 A380s lined up here. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=7500nm%40lla . I guess just the thought of creating a "world hub" in the middle of nowhere is discouraging.

User currently offlineCentre From Canada, joined Mar 2010, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 7589 times:

The only real competition will be TLV  http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=8000nm%40TLV

[Edited 2013-09-26 10:09:43]


I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7529 times:

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
With all that in mind, I started to think. Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK?

Humm, many airlines and hubs already rival DXB and EK so I don't quite get your question. DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.


User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 7432 times:

Can we dispel the myth that TK is mirroring what EK is doing ?

1. EK can nonstop to anywhere in Australia. For TK, the only large city that's less than 8500mi is PER
2. EK has tons of connections to India. TK barely has a handful of frequencies.
3. TK has a much larger home market (IST plus rest of Turkey)
4. TK connects to far more smaller destinations due to NB fleet and Star Alliance connections.
5. IST can reach places like MEX/SCL with ease. From DXB, you'll need ULH aircraft and payload-limited.
6. TK actually flies into Israel
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow.

If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 7243 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):

If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.

Personally I think that would be dumb of LH. TK is a far more valuable carrier than EK will ever be. EK's business is 100% dependent on connecting traffic which is basically traffic that is not theirs to begin with. This has worked out well up until now but it's a dangerous strategy as a long term business model, in my opinion. So many things can change in the world in the blink of an eye that would cause EK to crumble. Something as basic as India having a hissy fit and altering the provisions of the bilateral with the UAE for example, or some terrorist attack in Dubai similar to what we just saw in Nairobi this past week.


User currently offline747megatop From United States of America, joined May 2007, 716 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6745 times:

India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together. This was extensively discussed in another thread about a couple of months ago

- India Aviation-Unfortunate Lost Revenues (by flyenthu Jul 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=5826099&searchid=5826415&s=India+Aviation+Unfortunate+Lost+Revenues#ID5826415

For any hub to come close to what DXB has achieved; there has to be a great vision, planning, execution and strong political will. So far all of this happens to be there only in DXB and is pretty much unmatched by any other airport in the region.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6289 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow.


Oh yes, TK and EK compete for a lot of the same flows. Actually, LH and EK also compete for a lot of the same flows between North America / Europe and Middle East / South/Southeast Asia. DEN and JFK compete less because DEN is limited in long-haul service and JFK is limited in domestic service. DEN and PHL compete a lot more.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance, I doubt TK will object all that much.


It is EK that might find LH and TK unattractive partners.



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User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6211 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 15):
Actually, LH and EK also compete for a lot of the same flows between North America / Europe and Middle East / South/Southeast Asia

That's a small portion of overall traffic flows, esp for LH. Too many markets involve backtracking to consider those to be close competitors (or EK vs TK for that matter)

EK is mostly long-haul to long-haul connections. I'd guess that LH is more long-haul to intra-Europe type connections. LH can technically sell me a BOG-FRA-PVG ticket but not sure if they're really interested in that.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25300 posts, RR: 22
Reply 17, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6152 times:

Quoting opethfan (Reply 3):
I suppose that HNL is located as such to be a convenient halfway point between North America and Asia, allowing it to be a hub connecting mid sized cities on both sides of the Pacific which otherwise wouldn't have international TPAC service.

HNL is not conveniently located to servce as a hub between North America and Asia. It's much too far south. Routing via HNL often means flying more than 1,000 miles further than necessary. The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5984 times:
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Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
7. Finally, DXB and IST are 1870mi apart. Saying they compete is similar to saying DEN and JFK are fighting for the same traffic flow

While New York and Denver are about 1600 miles apart what does that have to do with Istanbul and Dubai ? Istanbul is at the east end of Europe and can connect tons of cities within 3000 miles with 737's and A320. Emirates could have 737 and fly to all kinds of cities within 6 hours range in east Africa, the Middle East and India if it wanted to. While Turkish would be challenged to make Sydney and Melbourne nonstop, that is about the only place a 777 can't get to nonstop.

Istanbul can connect anything from Japan to Africa as Dubai can. Emirates covers the Americas better then Turkish and if the only plane they can use is a 777-200LR, I an't felling sorry for Emirates.


User currently offlineL0VE2FLY From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 1565 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5697 times:

There's a lot of Asian airlines that could compete with DXB, AUH & DOH on Europe-Australasia, Africa-Australasia traffic, however, most of them lack the competent management and funds to become major global players.



Quoting alfa164 (Reply 2):
As long as India requires a visa for anyone who needs to transit that country, its airlines will be at a tremendous disadvantage in the world market. It is effectively limiting itself to O&D traffic.

That's one of the reasons their airlines are in trouble, with visa waiver for Westerners, good product and flight timings Indian airlines could become big players on the Kangaroo Route.



Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 5):
Believe it or not, Athens would be great. Maybe a way of reviving the greek economy?

The Greeks don't have to look too far to realize that it's possible to have a highly successful airline in their part of the world. The difference between the Greek and Turkish airline industries' success is astounding to say the least.



Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
Humm, many airlines and hubs already rival DXB and EK so I don't quite get your question. DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.

Their plan is to become the world's largest international hub & airline in the not so distant future.



Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):
For any hub to come close to what DXB has achieved; there has to be a great vision, planning, execution and strong political will. So far all of this happens to be there only in DXB and is pretty much unmatched by any other airport in the region.

TK is doing very well despite the fact that Turkey is far less wealthy than the UAE.


User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5684 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 18):
Emirates could have 737 and fly to all kinds of cities within 6 hours range in east Africa, the Middle East and India if it wanted to.

You're making assumptions on fleet changes. "IF" TK bought 77L they could do SYD too, but that's all hypothetical.

Taking your examples, CDG-IST-ADD versus CDG-DXB-ADD is 1200mi shorter via IST. Or CDG-AMM. Via Istanbul is 2145mi but via Dubai is 4517mi.

Their route networks have *some* overlap but their priorities are clearly different. QR, on the other hand, is definitely mimicking everything EK is doing, plus global alliance.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 21, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5562 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 16):
That's a small portion of overall traffic flows, esp for LH. Too many markets involve backtracking to consider those to be close competitors (or EK vs TK for that matter)

You might want to reflect on your arguments. You highlight the fact that SYD/MEL/BNE are too far for TK's current fleet, but then for LH flows between US/Europe and Middle East / India / SE Asia are "a small portion of overall traffic flows". We are talking about US/Europe which is pretty much half of the World's GDP. Then Middle East, India and SE Asia a huge growing market. Connections from US and Europe are hugely important for LH's network beyond Turkey, where it overlaps with EK.

Currently TK's location is more attractive to connections than EK's, because it is closer to richer Europe making it convenient to big markets for which DXB is out of the way. If emerging markets continue growing, then the geography advantage of TK should vanish.

Business partnerships have to show advantages for both sides. Partnering with LH is in general an uphill struggle. TK will be a direct competitor to EK in many markets. There is not much in Star for EK.



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User currently offline747megatop From United States of America, joined May 2007, 716 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 5440 times:

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
That's one of the reasons their airlines are in trouble, with visa waiver for Westerners, good product and flight timings Indian airlines could become big players on the Kangaroo Route.

The biggest key word is COULD. That i guarantee 98% that it won't happen because of a lack of vision. DXB is quite safe from competition and needs to worry just about AUH in the region.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5248 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 17):
The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.

The days ended because there wasn't an airline with the vision or financial ability to do it. SIN is a pretty crappy location for an Asian hub and somehow they make it work. So is DXB for a lot of the connections they offer. Tons of people are flying between Europe and Asia, including China, via DXB and SIN. That's a far bigger detour than HNL is.

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
Their plan is to become the world's largest international hub & airline in the not so distant future.

That's their plan but I don't believe it will happen. Too many things have to go EK's way in order for that to happen, starting with the other global carriers doing absolutely nothing while watching EK eat their breakfast. Also of some importance, Dubai Inc. has just about run out of money which is why DWC which was initially planned to open in 2017 is now posponed to 2027. In the mean time, DXB is running out of slots and EK is having to cancel flights because of it. Personally, I'll believe it when I see it.


User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5198 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 21):
but then for LH flows between US/Europe and Middle East / India / SE Asia are "a small portion of overall traffic flows". We are talking about US/Europe which is pretty much half of the World's GDP. Then Middle East, India and SE Asia a huge growing market. Connections from US and Europe are hugely important for LH's network beyond Turkey, where it overlaps with EK.

does US to India/ME account for more than 20% of LH's total traffic ? Or even more than 10% for that matter ? If not, then it's a small portion.

Look at LH's network : BAH is tag-on, MCT is tag-on, none in Pakistani/SriLanka/Bangladesh, only 5 destinations in India. Doesn't sound like much coverage beyond a few strategic destinations (e.g. Riyadh, TLV, AUH, BOM etc)

And DXB is a so-so location for most US/Europe to middle east destinations. Take FRA-AMM. Going via DXB is more than double the distance (1894mi vs. 4271mi). If EK is "competing" with that type of segment length disadvantage, I won't be too concerned if I were LH.

[Edited 2013-09-27 05:28:09]

User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5430 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 21):
Business partnerships have to show advantages for both sides. Partnering with LH is in general an uphill struggle. TK will be a direct competitor to EK in many markets. There is not much in Star for EK.

BA is much more dependent on South Asian traffic, and yet they've welcomed QR when RJ is not too far away. Explain how BA+QR is beneficial but LH+EK is detrimental ?


User currently offlineAircanadaA330 From Canada, joined Aug 2008, 294 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5244 times:
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Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 19):
There's a lot of Asian airlines that could compete with DXB, AUH & DOH on Europe-Australasia, Africa-Australasia traffic, however, most of them lack the competent management and funds to become major global players.

I am sure there are a number of Asian Airlines with competent management.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
But Africa is too far south to be a competitive connecting point between the two

What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?



Cheers;
User currently offlineAyostoLeon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 27, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5338 times:

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
LHR-SYD via JNB

Apart from the additional 1, 800 miles or so it would possibly depend on on two traffic flows. The first is A LHR-JNB and the second is JNB-SYD.

Does SQ have rights to operate those routes? Not only would require South African and British approval for the first leg it would require authority from both South Africa and Australia to operate such flights between South Africa and Australia. Given the uncertainty of the continued alliance between SA and QF on the JNB-SYD sector one might question whether SQ could operate without subsidy and therefore opposition from the current incumbents..


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 28, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5304 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
Look at LH's network : BAH is tag-on, MCT is tag-on, none in Pakistani/SriLanka/Bangladesh, only 5 destinations in India. Doesn't sound like much coverage beyond a few strategic destinations (e.g. Riyadh, TLV, AUH, BOM etc)

LH serves 20 destinations in the Middle East, India and SE Asia, which can connect to LH's 21 destinations in North America - 36 flights a day, plus UA/US/AC partner flights going into FRA/MUC feed LH's network beyond Europe. Almost a third of LH's capacity is dedicated to Asia and the Middle East.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
And DXB is a so-so location for most US/Europe to middle east destinations

Exactly. That is why TK does not bring much to EK. Traffic that now flies on EK will migrate to TK.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 24):
I won't be too concerned if I were LH.

I can't tell who said LH should be concerned, but I did not. LH has never entered in a partnership bad for it, because LH is very good at making sure its partnerships work for its advantage, even if partnerships do not work for the other partners.

Going back to my original posting #15: What I have been pointing out is what is in it for EK? Nothing.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 25):
Explain how BA+QR is beneficial but LH+EK is detrimental ?

Closely related to my point above: QR is much weaker than EK. It needs things that EK does not, like narrow-bodies and airline alliances that bring incremental traffic. Otherwise it cannot reach scale to be competitive with EK.



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User currently offlinebabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 29, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5240 times:

The travel world is always up for grabs. Nothing is certain. Everything can change.

DXB's position could easily be changed once 787s become reliable and western airlines can operate to niche long haul markets profitably. Also with greater loads and lower operating costs the A380 could bring down the cost of point to point long haul travel.

Who on earth wants to hub? I certainly don't. And Emirates is not the most comfortable airline in the world, I'd rather go with someone else, preferably European.


User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7377 posts, RR: 13
Reply 30, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5187 times:
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Quoting babybus (Reply 29):
Who on earth wants to hub?

In the absence of suitable flights being available from secondary cities, I would imagine lots of people.


User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4434 posts, RR: 12
Reply 31, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5182 times:

-TK's location is better suited than EK (except Australia), especially if TK to get more Indian/Chinese slots.
-TK has a huge domestic population where half of its income comes from.
-TK is closely tied to the current government and have the lions share of Turkish bilaterals and slots at IST.
-TK is too far from Australia and it might never serve it on its own metal. Just not enough money there.
-TK will level the playing field with EK when the new airport opens in Istanbul by the end of this decade and when current TK fleet doubles around the same time.

Maybe similar results can be achieved by other airports around the region ;like ATH, FCO, LCA, TLV, BEY, if they put their minds to it.


User currently offlinea380787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2013, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5141 times:

Quoting TK787 (Reply 31):
Maybe similar results can be achieved by other airports around the region ;like ATH, FCO, LCA, TLV, BEY, if they put their minds to it.

Definitely not TLV, due to too much airspace restriction and onerous security requirements


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 33, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5157 times:

Quoting babybus (Reply 29):
DXB's position could easily be changed once 787s become reliable and western airlines can operate to niche long haul markets profitably. Also with greater loads and lower operating costs the A380 could bring down the cost of point to point long haul travel.

People said the same thing when the 744 was launched. Just about everyone wrote off DXB as a viable hub because airlines could over-fly it on their routes between Europe and SE Asia. That's not a viable threat, IMO.

To me the biggest threat to EK is emerging markets and emerging airlines, which is really ironic because those are the same markets that have enabled EK to be what they are. For years EK was able to grow by connecting passengers from under-served regions, but this is changing. We're seeing ET, KQ, DT, PR becoming stronger and expanding their reach. India is a huge question mark. If the Indian government gets their head out of their ass and decides to allow private carriers to compete with AI for international service, that has the potential to deliver a pretty bad blow to EK. China is not too keen on allowing EK to expand freely either, and neither is Japan.

On top of that, legacy carriers are adjusting and learning to compete with EK. European carriers like LH, AF, BA are working to bring costs down so they can better compete. They also have the home market that EK doesn't have. If Europeans can travel to Asia non-stop for the same price EK is charging for a 1-stop, what exactly does EK have to offer? And we haven't even seen the emergence of long haul LCC yet. Norwegian is the first European LCC to go long haul, or at least the first that might have a chance at surviving.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25300 posts, RR: 22
Reply 34, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5119 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 17):The days of HNL being a major intermediate point on Asian routes (and to the South Pacific) ended once aircraft had the range to do it nonstop. And many preferred to make a fuel stop at ANC on routes to Asia since it's much shorter.
The days ended because there wasn't an airline with the vision or financial ability to do it. SIN is a pretty crappy location for an Asian hub and somehow they make it work. So is DXB for a lot of the connections they offer. Tons of people are flying between Europe and Asia, including China, via DXB and SIN. That's a far bigger detour than HNL is.

EK can do that due to their cost structure (no taxes for example). Other major Asian and U.S. carriers can't afford to send passengers thousands of miles out their way at competitive fares. Fares for those types of routings normally have to be lower than for more direct or nonstop routes, but your costs are much higher due to the extra flying.

SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.


User currently offlineAyostoLeon From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 35, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5075 times:

Quoting babybus (Reply 29):

Who on earth wants to hub?

The airlines. Of course most passengers would rather go from point A to point B with the minimum of fuss. For airlines the objective is not the same. Airlines wish to maximise utility of aircraft and convey the maximum number of passengers on each flight, even where one flight I seen as primarily feeding another.

Aircraft with greater range and fuel economy are of obvious interest but only in so far as they meet the primary objective, maximum number of bums on seats to yield a profit.

There I is no point in having the ability to fly a route if someone else can offer an alternative that is cheap enough to outweigh potential time saving, resulting in loads of only 50%.


User currently offlineL0VE2FLY From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 1565 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 4984 times:

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 22):
The biggest key word is COULD. That i guarantee 98% that it won't happen because of a lack of vision. DXB is quite safe from competition and needs to worry just about AUH in the region.

AUH, DOH and even IST.



Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
I am sure there are a number of Asian Airlines with competent management.

Of course there is, SQ, CX, KE, etc...



Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 27):
Apart from the additional 1, 800 miles or so it would possibly depend on on two traffic flows. The first is A LHR-JNB and the second is JNB-SYD.

Isn't LHR-JNB their best performing route? I doubt SA can compete on the Kangaroo Route though, 1800 mi. is ~4 hours of flying, plus they can't afford to take the risk of serving SYD, MEL, BNE & AKL any time soon, despite the strong ties between the 3 countries and the large number of South Africans living in Australia & NZ. Maybe when the A350s arrive things will change.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 37, posted (11 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 4913 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 34):

SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.

That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US. When I traveled to Thailand and Kathmandu years ago i flew via SIN and a significant portion of the passengers on the connecting flights to these destinations were American and Europeans, along with the obvious share of Ausies and Kiwis.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 38, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4476 times:
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Quoting a380787 (Reply 20):
Taking your examples, CDG-IST-ADD versus CDG-DXB-ADD is 1200mi shorter via IST. Or CDG-AMM. Via Istanbul is 2145mi but via Dubai is 4517mi.

Emirates even connects tons of Brits headed for South Africa, not because of the distance but the fares are competitive and from Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham and Edinburgh who wants to conect over Heathrow.

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?

SAA has never been a big player in the UK to Australian market. Maybe to Perth but not Sydney or Melbourne.


User currently offline747megatop From United States of America, joined May 2007, 716 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4378 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 37):
That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US. When I traveled to Thailand and Kathmandu years ago i flew via SIN and a significant portion of the passengers on the connecting flights to these destinations were American and Europeans, along with the obvious share of Ausies and Kiwis.

What you say is true 10 years back or more. Things have changed now with EK and QR springing up and expansing aggressively across the globe. Also, with the QF hub switch from SIN to DXB, it has dealt a further blow. There was a recent analysis on how passenger growth in Singapore is slowing because of the QF hub switch to DXB - http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...hub-and-airasia-closes-base-105062
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America. The only geographic advantage of Singapore is a hub for passengers flying between India and Australia. The article I just stated underscores the fact that the glorious days of Singapore as a megahub as changed in the past 10 years due to serious competition from EK and QR from their respective hubs of DXB and AUH. I guess that is the reason SQ is trying to get into an alliance with the Tata group from India to form an alliance and tap into the 2nd fastest growing Aviation market to give serious competition to EK and QR. SIN (and SQ) now really need to think hard and plan their future and not rest on their laurels.


User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 40, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4313 times:

I see the Canadian obsession with EK continues.

Quoting AircanadaA330 (Thread starter):
Is it possible for any airline/airport to grow to rival EK?

In one word: Yes. EK's model isn't complicated, and while its location isn't bad, there are plenty of airports in the region that could repeat the trick. However, the issues for the obvious replacements are as follows:

1) Inept Governments
2) Local instability
3) Lack of investment
4) Lack of political will
5) Lack of a comprehensive national policy
6) Lack of adequately skilled workforce/ability to bring it in.

And so on.

Dubai/EK itself is a model of simplicity. Build an airport. Buy some aircraft. Remove all the obstacles for pax/airline growth. Also make a concerted bid for tourism by building relevant infrastructure. And let the airline do its thing. EK has benefitted from India's economic rise, and while I m sure any airline would like the first mover advantage of tapping into an untapped market like that, I think most projections of Asia-> Europe/N. America traffic growth are positive. In theory, Turkmenistan could replicate a lot of it if it didn't suffer from the incomplete list above.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
Can we dispel the myth that TK is mirroring what EK is doing ?

Sure, but all you've proved is that TK isn't duplicating EK, not that it hasn't adopted EK's model.

The TK model, like the EK model, is built on the following tenets

1. The Government gives free rein to the airline to do what it wants and support it to whatever extent possible.

2. The government does not impede its growth by taxing it punitively. Instead, it facilitates its growth where it can by investing in infrastructure.

3. The government makes a strong push for tourism and builds up the tourism infrastructure as well - that helps the airline grow (and vice versa)

4. The government negotiates bilaterals with the aim of gaining more access for its airline regardless of previous ties with the country its negotiating with. This is crucial, since it requires dropping any pretense of O&D traffic and other 1970s protectionist claptrap. After all, both the EK and TK models are all about connecting traffic streams by flying to cities that can't, on their own, support O&D traffic with the airline's main hub. Think IST-KTM.

5. The Airline leverages its geographical and cultural ties to the max. EK has done this by making the most of the UAE's ties with South Asia. TK has done this by leveraging Turkey's relationship with Europe. Same concept, different regions. Saying that its different because TK hasn't mimicked EK in South Asia (Or EK hasn't mimicked TK in Europe) beggars belief. I've flown TK on DEL-IST several times and I've met people flying to small nooks and crannies all across Europe.

And so on. TK following the EK model isn't about TK flying to Australia or Israel. Its simply about the government and the airline harmonizing their strategy in a bid to let the airline grow, rather than to milk it for revenue, which seems to be the preferred path in the developed world. A lot of the points you've raised don't really say anything other than that TK isn't duplicating each EK route piece by piece.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 12):
If LH ever invites EK to Star Alliance

Pigs will fly long before LH says anything complimentry about EK. LHs rhetoric passed the point of reason long ago - its been a steady stream of histrionics for a while now.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):
India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together.

Indeed. As can many countries, provided their leadership takes an approach that is similar to what Dubai and Turkey have done.

The model both airlines are using is very simple - definitely not rocket science.


User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 41, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4238 times:

Quoting AyostoLeon (Reply 35):
The airlines. Of course most passengers would rather go from point A to point B with the minimum of fuss.

On a theoretical level you're right but most people realise no location is strong enough to have flights to all other locations.

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 40):
However, the issues for the obvious replacements are as follows:

I think you missed a major point. Few owners and managers have the will to take on such a project.


User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 42, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4223 times:

Quoting cmf (Reply 41):

I think you missed a major point. Few owners and managers have the will to take on such a project.

Perhaps, but we've got four airlines in the region who have shown the will. I did mention political will - perhaps I should have called that general will. Its a high risk business, but it can pay massive dividends if you get it right.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25300 posts, RR: 22
Reply 43, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3974 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 37):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 34):
SQ only really makes SIN work as a hub between Europe and Australia and parts of Asia not far from SIN. SIN is a poor hub from North America, and SQ's costs are much higher than EK's.

That is one of the biggest misconceptions about SQ and SIN as a hub. They are a very significant hub for all of Asia. People travel from the US and Europe to various points in Asia via SIN and vice versa. SQ is one of the largest carriers between India and the US.

I doubt India is still a major SQ market from/to the U.S. To major destinations like DEL it's also more than 2,000 nm further than via some hubs further north, and also significantly further than via the Gulf or via Europe. Example:

LAX-SIN-DEL 9.862 nm
LAX-ICN-DEL 7,725 nm
LAX-NRT-DEL 7.933 nm
LAX-HKG-DEL 8,334 nm
LAX-DXB-DEL 8,428 nm
LAX-FRA-DEL 8,357 nm


User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4434 posts, RR: 12
Reply 44, posted (11 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3712 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 43):
LAX-SIN-DEL 9.862 nm
LAX-ICN-DEL 7,725 nm
LAX-NRT-DEL 7.933 nm
LAX-HKG-DEL 8,334 nm
LAX-DXB-DEL 8,428 nm
LAX-FRA-DEL 8,357 nm

Even TK has a shot;
LAX-IST-DEL 8437nm


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8363 posts, RR: 10
Reply 45, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3379 times:

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 39):
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America.

That's a misconception unless by out of the way you mean, it requires 2 stops.
sfo-hkg-sin-ccu = 8962
sfo-dxb-ccu = 8862

sfo-hkg-sin-blr = 9116
sfo-dxb-blr = 8497

In most cases the difference is 1000nm or less. But I do agree that SQ's market share has decreased a lot in the last decade. That have even dropped a couple of cities in India. But they are still carrying a good amount of traffic to/from SFO/LAX.


User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2867 times:

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 39):
Singapore is actually an out of the way hub from India to North America. The only geographic advantage of Singapore is a hub for passengers flying between India and Australia. The article I just stated underscores the fact that the glorious days of Singapore as a megahub as changed in the past 10 years due to serious competition from EK and QR from their respective hubs of DXB and AUH. I guess that is the reason SQ is trying to get into an alliance with the Tata group from India to form an alliance and tap into the 2nd fastest growing Aviation market to give serious competition to EK and QR. SIN (and SQ) now really need to think hard and plan their future and not rest on their laurels.

EK and SQ have different strengths with respect to the Indian market, but one thing they do have in common is enormous traffic to their home airports and home countries. See:

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...t-india-market-demand-destination/

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/...light-india-market-demand-country/

Both Singapore and the UAE are hugely important trade and investment partners for India with plenty of O&D traffic, so the major role of SIN and DXB as hubs to onward destinations should not be too surprising. Also for SQ don't forget that India-Southeast Asia traffic will probably grow fast with the India-ASEAN trade agreement in place (including services, meaning increased movement of workers/professionals along with businesspeople).


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2831 times:

From the horn of Africa, Australia would be in reach? Still hot destinations and demanding on MTOW?

User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 48, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2734 times:

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 14):

India can be a serious "potential" competitor to the MEB3 carriers & hubs. But again, this is only a "potential" competitor on paper till India gets it's act together. This was extensively discussed in another thread about a couple of months ago

- India Aviation-Unfortunate Lost Revenues (by flyenthu Jul 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)?

I never got around to posting to that thread before it was locked, but I will say now that I am not sure if the general assumptions and argument are particularly strong.

The basic idea, I think, is that poor aviation infrastructure and poor aviation policy hold India back. I don't know, however, if civil aviation occurs in a vacuum. Getting one's "act together" would have to encompass other, non-aviation areas as well.

One basic problem is that people are comparing a huge, polycentric, and frankly poor country with much smaller, wealthier city-state-like entities.

And what about:

--General geopolitical considerations (think of: relations with certain neighbours; history of terror attacks)
--Overall economic position (growth and wealth--meaning who can afford to travel)
--Super-wealthy among population (millionaires and billionaires translate into premium traffic)
--Role in regional trade (adversely affected by the first category)
--Role in global trade (business travel)
--Role in various global industries (e.g., finance, industrial goods manufacturing, entertainment, IT, pharma, etc.)
--Role in international diplomacy
--Tourism (nice that people mentioned related visa policy)
--There must be more!

Just search any of these and you can see that India is not particularly strong on these counts, though there are a few niches here and there. For example, I believe the Emirate of Dubai alone receives many times more tourists than the entire nation of India. (Search to verify.) To make matters even worse, many of the tourists visiting India are simply former Indian nationals who have exchanged their Indian passports for fancier ones!

One area in which India excels on the world stage is in generating people who want to work outside their home country. I guess this does generate lots of proletariat class passengers on planes. But what about the other drivers of traffic?

As many A.net threads tell us, Dubai is now a major business and tourism destination in its own right, with a wealthy native and expat population as well. Multiple factors contribute to its success in generating O&D traffic; DXB is not just a place to make transfers.

Singapore is an even more developed, mature global centre for trade, finance, shipping, oil refining, technology, higher education, media, multinational corporations in diverse industries, etc., etc., etc. Again, it also has a large and wealthy expat population.

Just look at how many carriers from across the globe with how many flights serve these two important airports. Over time, I suspect a new generation of Indian cities will want their own flights to places like DXB and SIN!

Vague notions of growth alongside geography may not be enough to make any potential Indian hub airport become a true rival to their incumbent, established counterparts on the other side of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. What an Indian hub airport can do, however, is open up lots of smaller Indian cities to a few select global destinations.

I guess you could start a whole new thread, "What makes a hub?"  


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 49, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2671 times:
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Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
DXB and EK are neither the largest hub in the world nor the largest airline in the world.

Maybe not if you include all those domestic flights to Backofbeyondsville. Look at the international figures.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ditional-international-hubs-104857
Quote:
Dubai International Airport (DXB) continues its inexorable march to become the world’s largest airport by international passenger traffic. At the end of Mar-2013, the airport announced it had been confirmed as the world’s second busiest airport for international passenger traffic, moving ahead of Paris’ Charles de Gaulle airport for the first time on a month to month basis.

Only London Heathrow Airport remains a bigger hub for international traffic. Given the pace of traffic growth in Dubai, the capacity constraints at London Heathrow and the dithering by UK authorities about runway capacity in southeast England, it is only a matter of time before Dubai becomes the world’s largest international passenger hub.


Quoting AircanadaA330 (Reply 26):
What about SAA? Couldnt they capitalize on LHR-SYD via JNB?

Sure, if you don't mind adding 3,000km to your journey compared with going via BKK or SIN.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 50, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2401 times:

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 48):
--General geopolitical considerations (think of: relations with certain neighbours; history of terror attacks)
--Overall economic position (growth and wealth--meaning who can afford to travel)
--Super-wealthy among population (millionaires and billionaires translate into premium traffic)
--Role in regional trade (adversely affected by the first category)
--Role in global trade (business travel)
--Role in various global industries (e.g., finance, industrial goods manufacturing, entertainment, IT, pharma, etc.)
--Role in international diplomacy
--Tourism (nice that people mentioned related visa policy)
--There must be more!

Just search any of these and you can see that India is not particularly strong on these counts, though there are a few niches here and there.

That's probably the most flawed conclusion I've seen on a.net to date.

- Overall economic position / super wealthy: India has an income inequality problem, not a growth problem (well, not until the last year or so anyway) and certainly not a super-wealth problem. The attractiveness of the Indian market, much like the Dubai market, lies on having a large absolute number of rich folk. India has more billionaires than South Korea and Japan combined. It also falls in the top 10 - 15 of number of millionaires lists. Most of the wealth generation has been concentrated in urban centers. That's not to say that India doesn't have extensive and shocking poverty, but it does have a very large number of people who have a lot of money to spend. Granted they make up a miniscule proportion of the actual population, but its the absolute numbers that matter. To put it in perspective, super luxury goods are more easily available in India than they are in 'rich' countries like Canada. That's a reflection of the absolute size of the market, not its proportional size.

- Geopolitical Considerations - ... are surprisingly irrelevant. India witnessed most of its economic boom and foreign direct investment inflows at a time when the subcontinent was dubbed the 'most dangerous place in the world'. The post-1998 sanctions period to the financial crisis of 2008 (though inflows carried on till 2011) was arguably the most rocky period in terms of geopolitical considerations (Kargil crisis 1999, attach on the Indian parliament 2001, attack on an army camp in Kashmir 2002, god lone knows how many bomb blasts all over the place). It didn't stop the money or the investors from flowing in. Or the foreign leaders, for that matter.

- Role in regional trade: How are you defining regional? South Asia? Not a lot. South Asia, South East Asia and the ME/Indian Ocean Rim - very, very significant.

- Global trade/Industry/Diplomacy: Look it up on your own time, but I think its fair to say that India is a significant player in all of those categories - at least the steady parade of foreign heads of government in Delhi suggests so. Not to mention that little G-20 gig that India has going on, on the side. I think that alone should tell you where India stands.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 48):
For example, I believe the Emirate of Dubai alone receives many times more tourists than the entire nation of India.

I see. But does the emirate of Dubai generate $120bn in tourism a year? That's 6% of India's GDP. Granted it includes internal and external tourism, but its still significant since, from an airline's perspective, it suggests that there is a large appetite for tourism within India, which could grow depending on India's economic performance in coming years.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 48):
To make matters even worse, many of the tourists visiting India are simply former Indian nationals who have exchanged their Indian passports for fancier ones!

Make matters worse? For whom? The fancier passports come with fancier salaries. India's the world's largest recipient of remittances, which tend to come from these fancy passport Indians. They've made it quite easy by handing out lifelong visas to anyone who can prove they were born in India. There's also an entire ministry for Indian-origin/Indian nationals living outside India. Contrast that to my own country, Canada, where Canadians living outside Canada are viewed with distrust and even antipathy - the so-called 'Canadian of Convenience' (unless they leave Canada and make it big in the US, in which case they're Canadian national treasures, regardless of how tenuous their links to Canada are). Bad for the airlines? I think not. Bad for India? The account book suggests otherwise.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 48):
One area in which India excels on the world stage is in generating people who want to work outside their home country. I guess this does generate lots of proletariat class passengers on planes.

With the corresponding benefit of getting a heck of a lot of money from them - $65 bn in the past year. Some countries generally get the proletariat classes (Canada being a good example) while some get a decent mix - the UAE, US, UK, SIN, HKG - all boast reasonably large premium markets to/from India, though this has a lot to do with the rise of the high skilled worker and the relative attractiveness of those countries.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1574 posts, RR: 2
Reply 51, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2345 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 33):
On top of that, legacy carriers are adjusting and learning to compete with EK. European carriers like LH, AF, BA are working to bring costs down so they can better compete. They also have the home market that EK doesn't have. If Europeans can travel to Asia non-stop for the same price EK is charging for a 1-stop, what exactly does EK have to offer? And we haven't even seen the emergence of long haul LCC yet. Norwegian is the first European LCC to go long haul, or at least the first that might have a chance at surviving.

To me that's the fascinating part about the whole EK/DXB issue - yes they do have a great thing going for now, but how sustainable will that be in the medium- to long-term? It will be interesting to watch.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25300 posts, RR: 22
Reply 52, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2277 times:

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 50):
Just search any of these and you can see that India is not particularly strong on these counts, though there are a few niches here and there.That's probably the most flawed conclusion I've seen on a.net to date.

You don't mention corruption which is a big problem in India. That's a major reason for India's economic performance being much weaker than it should be. Much of the wealth goes to paying bribes and making the rich richer rather than going to the people actually doing the work.


User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 53, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2191 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 52):
You don't mention corruption which is a big problem in India. That's a major reason for India's economic performance being much weaker than it should be.

I don't mention anything. I questioned the logic behind his conclusion.

Of course there's corruption, but from an airline perspective's point of view, that's probably a good thing since it keeps the wealth concentrated in folk who fly premium instead of disseminating it in the so-called 'proletariat'. Its not good for the economy at all - hence the comment about income inequality - an the economic performance has been mired by a spectacularly inept and corrupt political class particularly over the past year, but that still doesn't make India an insignificant O&D market, which is the crux of his argument.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 54, posted (11 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2139 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Quoting scbriml (Reply 49):
Sure, if you don't mind adding 3,000km to your journey compared with going via BKK or SIN.

Believe it or not, during the height of the Asian Bird Flu crisis, many pax originating in Australia and New Zealand (on their way to the UK and Europe) were more that happy to add the extra mileage in order to avoid airports in Asia. Granted that was an abnormal period of time.

On my flight from SYD-JNB, I was seated next to a lady from France. She was continuing on to CDG.  


Regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1336 posts, RR: 1
Reply 55, posted (11 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 2034 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 38):
Emirates even connects tons of Brits headed for South Africa, not because of the distance but the fares are competitive and from Manchester, Glasgow, Birmingham and Edinburgh who wants to conect over Heathrow.

Spot on, though it's not just the UK regions. I know people who have flown LHR-DOH-JNB, with a one night layover in DOH, a detour of 1500 miles!

If it's cheaper, then people (flying for leisure, not business) really don't mind flying well out of their way.


User currently offline747megatop From United States of America, joined May 2007, 716 posts, RR: 0
Reply 56, posted (11 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 1874 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 52):
You don't mention corruption which is a big problem in India.

  



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 52):
Much of the wealth goes to paying bribes and making the rich richer rather than going to the people actually doing the work.


Partiall disagree there. Wealth going to paying bribes is probably true in much of the third world and African countries, so that is correct. But, about the rich getting richer rather than going to the people actually doing the work...well that is no different in developed contries as well; look at corporate executive pay for example. Also, we conveniently ignore corporate corruption...that is also one form of corruption - AIG being bailed out for example during which many executives received bonuses; companies cooking their books (Enron debacle for example); difference is that the law catches up with those folks here and things still work (infrastructure works).

Anyways coming back to the topic; the reason India can't compete with DXB is because nobody has the vision to come up with a plan and put it into execution. Even if Tim Clark of Emirates is asked to takeover AI or 9W and asked to setup a hub in DEL & BLR; there is too much political beuaracracy and political baggage i guess to gurarantee that he will not be able to do another Emirates. This is the fundamental thing to understand why DXB,AUH,SIN,HKG have never been replicated either in DEL or BLR. It is such a business goldmine that a few of us a.netters with different areas of expertise and knowledge in aviation can actually go there and setup a "startup" airline but the political will, vision and aviation "hub" friendly policies needs to be there.


User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 57, posted (11 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 1815 times:

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 50):
That's probably the most flawed conclusion I've seen on a.net to date.

Thank you for your input. One thing to keep in mind is that we are looking at a potential Indian airport, serving a specific metropolitan region, as a competing hub to DXB and others. I included basically a list of considerations, and I certainly don't think they all necessarily apply. They are simply points of discussion.

As I mentioned earlier, the comparison of a very large country with city-state type of entities is illusory in the first place. A particular metro area within India would have to have the right characteristics to compete with the Dubais of the world. So, for example, the superwealthy (in a global currency, not local currency) would have to be within that metro area. Though obviously government policy (and geopolitical factors) are more at the national and international levels.

I suspected that someone would balk at the geopolitical considerations in the first place, but problems in this realm certainly do not help to make a potential Indian hub an attractive place to make international-to-international transfers. (Nor does visa policy.) With regard to the Gulf countries, they are hugely important defence, business, and counterterrorism partners for the USA and Britain. And for travellers, they have liberal visa entry policies, and are regarded as safe...like them or not.

As for all your counterpoints, I won't get too much into them as they don't really address the topic, but I would simply say that, yes, the country is rising in its global profile, but from a very, very low baseline, and very unevenly. It really depends on the perspective one takes: whether comparing India to its own past, or comparing it to other countries.

It is really growth in business travel (arising from growth in trade) that can increase premium traffic flows, rather than well-to-do expat populations.


User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 58, posted (11 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 1667 times:

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 57):
particular metro area within India would have to have the right characteristics to compete with the Dubais of the world. So, for example, the superwealthy (in a global currency, not local currency) would have to be within that metro area.

First off, when I say the conclusion was flawed, I mean exactly that. Not a personal jab. To be precise, the assumptions on which one would deem India 'weak' are flawed.

DEL and BOM would be the obvious choices. They're both home to a lot of rich people. FWIW, the stats on millionaires and billionaires is in USD terms. BOM is rich because of its status as a financial/commercial center (also one of the world's most expensive cities to buy property in). DEL is richer than most people think because it has a lot of millionaire owners of SMEs who underreport their income to evade taxes. Bad for India, but from an airline's perspective, the money is there for the taking.

DEL has the added advantage of reasonably good infrastructure. T3 is new and there's room for expansion. It's well placed to be a hub - having a reasonably wealthy population which would grow even larger if you factor in nearby Gurgaon, which is very close to the airport. The reason it hasn't become one is largely down to the aviation policies - a deadly combination of supporting AI and taxing the industry punitively. And, of course, those visas, which are a pain to get.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 57):
With regard to the Gulf countries, they are hugely important defence, business, and counterterrorism partners for the USA and Britain.

I fear you're revealing a lot of ignorance here. In virtually every aspect, India outweighs the Gulf. Defence, business, counterterrorism - one need only look at how often western leaders pop up in New Delhi, compared to, say, Abu Dhabi or Qatar. Might also surprise you to find out that the US holds more annual military exercises with India than with any other country in the world. Or that India is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment for the UK. Its a different ballgame compared to the UAEs and Qatars who, to be sure, play a significant role. Just nowhere near on the same scale.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 57):
And for travellers, they have liberal visa entry policies, and are regarded as safe...like them or not.

This is true, but for a transit passenger who has no intention of leaving the airport (which is the bulk of traffic using DXB etc), it almost certainly ranks well below price and convenience as criteria.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 57):
I won't get too much into them as they don't really address the topic, but I would simply say that, yes, the country is rising in its global profile, but from a very, very low baseline, and very unevenly.

Its the unevenness that makes it an attractive proposition for airlines. It can fill premium cabins. And what do you mean by 'low' baseline. China and South Korea both started from lower baselines in 1947 and both have overtaken India. There's no reason to believe India won't catch up eventually (300 years perhaps, with a little bit of luck and a little less 'this is India' nonsense/justifications).

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 57):
It is really growth in business travel (arising from growth in trade) that can increase premium traffic flows, rather than well-to-do expat populations.

Out of curiosity, what do you think this endless parade of western leaders goes to India to do? I daresay they're all there to increase trade. I don['t know if you're British, but when Cameron visited India earlier this year, he took the 'largest UK trade delegation ever' with him. I don't think they went with him simply to get choice seats at the Taj Mahal.


User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (11 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 1568 times:

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 50):
That's probably the most flawed conclusion I've seen on a.net to date.
Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 58):
I fear you're revealing a lot of ignorance here.

May I suggest that you please be careful in characterising others' comments? For the sake of the discussion?

In your posts, I fear you are delving very deep into ancillary matters that detract from the topic at hand.

With respect to defence relations with the USA and UK, please note that I never compared India to the UAE or other Gulf states. For the UAE this is just one background factor in what has made the country regarded as safe and stable--that's all. As to which region is "more important", why don't you ask folks at the CIA or Pentagon?   (Think of how energy plays into the equation.)

With respect to wealth, why not consider how the international airlines see things? It is just one factor, but it can mean the difference having a nonstop to a particular destination...or not. See how international airlines allocate seats (premium and otherwise) to various Indian vs other destinations.

With respect to the parade of Western leaders, why not look at comparative FDI and trade statistics instead? Then see what airlines have been expanding and contracting where. If you can get your hands on aviation industry data, even better.

My initial point was simply that it takes more than favourable aviation policy and good aviation infrastructure to create a hub. I never said I had all the answers.

[Edited 2013-10-13 15:24:44]

User currently offline747megatop From United States of America, joined May 2007, 716 posts, RR: 0
Reply 60, posted (11 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 1524 times:

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 58):
DEL and BOM would be the obvious choices.

Forget BOM. They will be lucky if they are able to serve the current traffic and meet the expected growth in traffic for the next 5 years with their current antiquated airport even after the new T2 is completed.


User currently offlineElPistolero From Canada, joined Feb 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 4
Reply 61, posted (11 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1418 times:

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
May I suggest that you please be careful in characterising others' comments?

Fair enough.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
In your posts, I fear you are delving very deep into ancillary matters that detract from the topic at hand.

I'm responding to what you're writing. I'm not coming up with them. And as I've said before, the assumptions underlying your statements are questionable.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
With respect to wealth, why not consider how the international airlines see things?

I think we all know how international airlines see India. For BA, its the second largest market outside the US, while LH has been fighting tooth and nail to get its A380s into DEL and BOM. I know for a fact that until a couple of years ago, India was LH's largest international market after the US, but I expect that's changed after they got shoved off HYD and CCU by the ME3. Just for perspective, EK operates 185 flights to India every week. And then there was that blockbuster deal that AUH obtained after joining hands with 9W. SQ recently got a 10% increase in the number of seats it can operate to India - God knows they've been trying for a while. And then there's the random carriers - AY, OS ..airlines that probably carry single digit O&D traffic.

Most of the expansion has been ME3 and Asian carriers. Most of the contraction has been EU carriers (for obvious reasons).Here's LH's take : note the comment about operating costs in India being "very high". http://ceoindia.co.in/blog/?p=280

Out of curiosity, how do you think international carriers view India?

I stand by my original contention. India generated 43 million international passengers last year. Thats ~118,000 international passengers a day, which isn't bad when you consider the fact that India's regional market (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Burma, Bhutan) is next to negligible.

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 59):
See how international airlines allocate seats (premium and otherwise) to various Indian vs other destinations.

India only has 2 premium heavy destinations - DEL and BOM. Some might include BLR. DEL and BLR were the first Asian routes to receive the 748. Why do you think that might be?

[Edited 2013-10-13 17:23:55]

User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12566 posts, RR: 46
Reply 62, posted (11 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1144 times:
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Quoting SA7700 (Reply 54):
Granted that was an abnormal period of time.

It was. I'd be very interested to see what % of London - Sydney traffic goes via JNB. I bet it's very low on an average month.



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