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Lion Air Considering CS300  
User currently offlinegolfradio From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 830 posts, RR: 2
Posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 8939 times:

Bombardier CSeries CS300 to fly with Indonesia’s Lion Air

Per report Lior Air is considering the CS300 and may be the launch customer for CS300. Purchase may be finalized at Farnborough next year

Quote:
“I just met Mike (Arcamone, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft), and I saw the CSeries — it’s very surprising. I never expected the aircraft to be ... beyond my expectation.”


39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 1, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 8947 times:

More aircraft for Lion Air? Amazing. Any idea about how many they could use?


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinegolfradio From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 830 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 8922 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):

No mention of numbers. Not the A list customer but then every order counts. Even though I am very happy and I am still shaking my head at JT. What are they going to do with all these aircraft?


User currently offlineyowza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4920 posts, RR: 15
Reply 3, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 8855 times:

I don't want to start a flame war so if you think the following question is inflammatory please just tell me and I will delete it.

From an image management perspective the very last thing a fledgling design with modest orders wants is bad press. Lion have had more than a few incidents with their existing birds. Do you think BBD would (and has any manufacturer in the past) force fed pilots and operational practices to a customer?

YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8698 times:

Bloomberg also has an article about this subject:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-draws-interest-from-lion-air.html



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinegoosebayguy From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2009, 417 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8671 times:

Maybe they are finding the 737 too tricky to fly and want a simpler aircraft?

User currently offlineneutrino From Singapore, joined May 2012, 664 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8645 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
More aircraft for Lion Air? Amazing. Any idea about how many they could use?

At least a hundred is my uneducated guess.

Quoting golfradio (Reply 2):
What are they going to do with all these aircraft?

Kissing the sea wall or getting into arguments with stray cows?
Seriously, I have totally no idea and couldn't even hazard a guess. They have something like over 500 on order against a current fleet of under a hundred. They way they keep on signing on the dotted line boggles the mind. The bubble just might burst one day though I hope not. Flew on them many times and will keep doing so.



Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8620 times:

Quoting neutrino (Reply 6):
They have something like over 500 on order

More like 700, but it's not yet enough:

Quote:
Lion Air already has 700 planes on order and expects to have ordered 1,000 aircraft within two to three years, Kirana said in March.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineLH707330 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 849 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8549 times:

Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country (246M) and is dotted on a huge number of islands, so commercial aviation is a major part of their transportation infrastructure. The environment is there for large expansion, given that GDP growth unleashes the potential demand. Having a Southwest-sized airline in a country of that size shouldn't turn heads, they just appear to bullish on growth.

User currently offlinerojo From Spain, joined Sep 2000, 2482 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8549 times:

Quoting golfradio (Reply 2):
No mention of numbers. Not the A list customer but then every order counts. Even though I am very happy and I am still shaking my head at JT. What are they going to do with all these aircraft?

If they can't use them all, they will transfer them to their leasing company and enter the aircraft leasing business... since they will have premium slots for almost every NB aircraft, I'm sure they have this as part of their business plan.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8386 times:

Bombardier confirms the meeting with Lion Air in Montreal.

http://twitter.com/e_russell/status/383311659453775872



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineneutrino From Singapore, joined May 2012, 664 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8349 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):

Quoting neutrino (Reply 6):
They have something like over 500 on order

More like 700, but it's not yet enough:

I'm floored!      



Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
User currently offlineCentre From Canada, joined Mar 2010, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8237 times:

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 8):
Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country (246M) and is dotted on a huge number of islands, so commercial aviation is a major part of their transportation infrastructure. The environment is there for large expansion, given that GDP growth unleashes the potential demand. Having a Southwest-sized airline in a country of that size shouldn't turn heads, they just appear to bullish on growth.

  

from the Bloomberg article by KarelXWB

Quote:
Traffic at Lion Air will probably climb at least 10 percent annually in the next few years, Kirana said, citing growing demand for air travel as Indonesia’s middle class expands. About 70 million people flew in Indonesia last year, a 14-fold increase from 2000, he said.

from the NY Times

Quote:
The economy has been doing well — it survived the world’s 2008 financial crisis virtually untouched, multinationals have been flocking here and its gross domestic product has expanded at a steady rate of more than 6 percent for the last three years. Still, analysts consistently say Indonesia is being held back from reaching its full potential because of corruption and collusion among government officials, lawmakers and powerful business interests.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/wo...on-the-streets.html?ref=world&_r=0

In my opinion, the financial case for 1000 airplanes is there



I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5478 posts, RR: 31
Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7991 times:

As long as this doesn't turn out to be another Air Asia situation, this would be very good news for the program...but it does seem somewhat more likely.

Lion already has huge orders in from Boeing and Airbus so they really don't need to dangle a CS300 order to get discounts, but Farnborough is a very long way off. It seems a bit early to announce a likely order without actually at least signing a LOI.

Still, great if it happens but I won't be counting any chickens until the paper is signed.



What the...?
User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6972 posts, RR: 76
Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 7641 times:

Quoting neutrino (Reply 6):
The bubble just might burst one day though I hope not.

It is beginning to burst... OK, air leaks more like it!   

Quoting Centre (Reply 12):
In my opinion, the financial case for 1000 airplanes is there

The financial case? Sure... the on the field case? No.
A significant portion of the outstanding orders will not go to Lion Air Indonesia. Some will go to Malindo (reported to be taking the majority of the remaining 737-900ER orders, if it can get out of its mess of low loads), some will go to the upcoming Lion Air Thailand, and Lion Air Vietnam is said to be in the works.
On the Indonesian end itself, Lion's Batik Air is having some quiet growth, but nothing spectacular as yet, things are looking good but I think we'll have to wait until the end of the year to start seeing results. Lion Air Indonesia itself is banging itself on a proverbial wall thanks to the past policy of "growth above all else" with its bad sides. It continuously failed to improve ground services passenger experience, to the extent that they've made a U-turn and start taking on O'Leary and Fernandes style rants blaming the airport. Lion Air causes the CGK flight delays themselves by having more flights than the airport can handle, and blames the airport. Slot coordination has been made a joke by no one other than Lion. With the supply of foreign pay-to-fly pilots being cut after it is alleged that the CEO discovered 3 key persons in the company made it with 1.5 million dollars from the scheme, it's now struggling to fill the pilot seats of new planes. In 2013 alone there has been 2 waves of pilot resignation resulting in massive disruption... cause? Pilots are not happy with the working conditions (read: they're happy with the pay packages according to their contracts, but the hours the company is asking for, is alleged to exceed the regulatory limitations)... and yeah, headhunting/hijacking competitor's pilots is rife here... the transfer fees for pilots to move is higher than our top league footballers. It got so bad that last month or so, 200 passengers slept on the aircraft and apron overnight (yes, outside in the apron and under the aircraft) demanding their flight to take off after continuous delays due to allegedly by insiders, lack of crew... of course, the crew were held hostage onboard too.... they did that because they were afraid the aircraft would then be used for another flight (passengers were told it was an aircraft rotation issue due to weather etc... while there was no significant weather issue countrywide that day).

On top of this, the infrastructure cannot cope. CGK is probably now the world's busiest 2 runway airport in terms of movements with around 1200 movements per day. The terminals can't cope. Lion has outgrown it's exclusive use of Terminal 1A... it takes 1/2 of Terminal 1B (and squeezing Sriwijaya) and 1/2 of terminal 1C (and squeezing Citilink) and 1/3 of Terminal 3 (with Batik Air and and it's CGK-Bali+Lombok flights)... (international flights still from Terminal 2)... it has refused the offer of taking T1B & T1C for themselves with leaving T3... for the reason of their need to continue to squeeze their competitors... squeeze means squeeze it's competitors passengers with Lion Air customers literally taking over the terminal making it difficult for their competitors too. Nice strategy eh?

CGK is full (including runway slots), thanks to Lion. SUB is full, thanks to Lion... the upcoming new terminal will already be operating at capacity when it opens (reportedly to be exclusive for Lion), and runway slots will run out soon. New Medan Airport will be filled up soon. JOG's parking slots are full, used up by Lion. UPG is full, thanks to Lion...

With 20 flights a day between CGK and Medan, and I think a similar number between CGK and SUB, the 2 major airways are now clogged, so flights to other cities are delayed due to lack of airway slot (doesn't help that our ATC doesn't want to utilize vertical space real estate... but their reason is clogging of airspace at CGK, SUB and MES)...

Sure the business case of 1000 airplanes for Lion is there... the infrastructure can't keep up (partly thanks to Lion's past "persuasion" of limiting infrastructure growth prior to its first large 737-900ER order)... the human resources can't catch up within Lion nor at ATC, airports, regulators, etc (because everyone is growing)... the DGCA has said they're rejecting new AOC applications because of airport congestion and lack of personnel to oversee the growing airlines...

HR quality of newbies coming in is also in decline, the industry has built a reputation of "easy dumb condition for large pay", attracting, sorry, idiots into the industry... and to easily mass produce "trained" personnel, aerospace schools are now not putting attention to quality... we're getting quantities of young people who went through "seniority and "alma mater protection at all cost" training, who ended up having to have a lot of retraining once accepted (unless your airline just want to fill the ranks with idiots with qualifications for the sake of filling the quantity requirements and shifting the quality problems elsewhere), and difficult to accept criticism... Good smart guys in the DGCA is being sidelined in favour of these "smartasses" with backing by certain airlines (you can guess who)... so that the stupidity continues covered by an evergrowing quantity... (yes, 3 directors and sub-directors from the DGCA have complained to me)...

On one hand, I'm always happy to see these orders... more jobs, more access for air travel for the population, but behind the facade, it's a sad sad story bordering a, if not already a disaster.



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineCentre From Canada, joined Mar 2010, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 7556 times:

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 15):

quite an angry guy  

In what you mentioned I see a political issue in the ranks of the government rather than Lion Air.
How can you blame not expanding an airport on Lion air? Not sure how the political system works in Indonesia , bur I hardly see how is this a problem for the airline who wants to expand and make more money, arent they a business? and that's what business do....Make money.

If the government cant maintain the same standard of growth that businesses in the country have, then that's the problem of the political leadership rather than businesses....And makes me believe that the NY article above is so right when it said that Indonesia would have been a far better country than they are now if they have a different political leadership.



I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineHB-IWC From Indonesia, joined Sep 2000, 4517 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 7453 times:

Quoting Centre (Reply 16):
quite an angry guy

Not angry at all. Just a pretty objective description of the current situation in Indonesia. The business case may be there based on the transportation needs of millions of people, but neither the infrastructure nor the human resources for such a huge expansion will be available for many years to come.

Add to that the financial aspect of the entire setup: looking at the kinds of fares Lion air is able to charge on many of its trunk routes, I wonder how sustainable this is. Buying power maybe on the increase, but the main reason there is such a boom in air traffic is that air travel has effectively become cheaper than travel by bus, train or ship. That does however not imply that air fares can sustain the massive cost picture Lion Air must be dealing with. I have the distinct impression that the financial burden is becoming so heavy that the only way forward for the Lion Air group is continue a massive expansion in hopes of continuing to outrun increasing financial obligations. The question is for how long the company will be able to keep doing this.


User currently offlineCentre From Canada, joined Mar 2010, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 7222 times:

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 18):
That does however not imply that air fares can sustain the massive cost picture Lion Air must be dealing with. I have the distinct impression that the financial burden is becoming so heavy that the only way forward for the Lion Air group is continue a massive expansion in hopes of continuing to outrun increasing financial obligations. The question is for how long the company will be able to keep doing this.

How is this any different from RyanAir or Spirit Airlines?

And the cost structure in Indonesia is much cheaper than that in the Western world



I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 18, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 6976 times:

Quoting Centre (Reply 12):
In my opinion, the financial case for 1000 airplanes is there

And Lion Air is not the only one, IndiGo too sees a fleet of 1,000 aircraft in the long run. I hope Bombardier will have a nice chat with them too, there's a lot of potential in Asia and Boeing and Airbus will not be able to deliver all those planes within a reasonable time window.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...travel-surges-corporate-india.html

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 13):
As long as this doesn't turn out to be another Air Asia situation, this would be very good news for the program...but it does seem somewhat more likely.

I missed this, what happened with Air Asia?



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineBD500 From Canada, joined Feb 2010, 36 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 6941 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
I missed this, what happened with Air Asia?

At Farnborough 2012, Tony Fernandes was seen with Bombardier CEO Pierre Beaudoin (and claims they are personal friends) attending a presentation of the CSeries mockup in the color of Air Asia.

At the time, it was discussed that Bombardier was thinking about introducing a high density configuration of the CS300 at 160 seats to accommodate LCC needs. Mr. Fernandes said the operational advantages of the CSeries would allow Air Asia to reach airports they cannot reach with their current fleet.

In the end, the opted for the A320 family.
Many suggest Air Asia used their interest in the CSeries to lower the acquisition price of their Airbus.


http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-chooses-a320-over-cseries-379573/


User currently offlineMillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1301 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 6903 times:

Quoting Centre (Reply 19):

How is this any different from RyanAir or Spirit Airlines?

And the cost structure in Indonesia is much cheaper than that in the Western world

Have you been to Indonesia? Seen what the major airports are like?
What youre suggesting is a businesscase thats very similar to BA doubling the flights from LHR.
Makes complete financial sense but still not realistic.

Lionair and their orders feels rather bizarre. Malindo I read above. Sounds great, but anyine thats been on a Malindo flight knows that its operation wont become bigger than 30 planes and the idea that it will be profitable with their present fares sounds very farfetched. Malindo Thailand, Malindo Vietnam (good luck with that Lion, previous foreign entities hasnt exactly had a stellar succes in Vietnam...)

Lionair needs to put their planes somewhere so im sure well see heaps of routes announces overseas, but profits? More close bases? The natural choice, Singapore, wont allow them to be shady or cook their local books for instance so thats a market I dont think they want to establish themselves in.

Still we westerners arent covered by insurance when we fly lionair or malindo. The insurance companies refuse it since Lion hasnt passed inspections. Thats not great when you want to win corporate contracts or start up in the tourist dependant Thai market...

Indoensia has potential and I am sure they will eventually build more stuff. But not within the timeframe Lionairs orders will arrive.
The present mayor of the Jakarta region shocked me when he met with western corporations and DIDNT want any money. In fact the man spoke about the potential in Indonesia and what the government could do to improve the businessclimate. We all left the meeting gobsmacked, a politician that invites businessmen and doesnt ask for generous donations? According to one 40 year veteran of the expat scene in jakarta, that has never ever happened before. There is hope, at least in the Jakarta region...



No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13221 posts, RR: 36
Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6751 times:

Quoting BD500 (Reply 21):
At Farnborough 2012, Tony Fernandes was seen with Bombardier CEO Pierre Beaudoin (and claims they are personal friends) attending a presentation of the CSeries mockup in the color of Air Asia.

...

Thanks, I forgot about this "coup".

Flightglobal and Reuters have additional information:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...lace-cs300-order-in-months-391040/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...dier-cseries-idUSL2N0HM1Z220130927

Quote:
Indonesian low-cost carrier Lion Air aims to finalise an order for the Bombardier CSeries by end-2013, and expects to meet the airframer next month to work out the details.

...

Lion Air's chief executive Rusdi Kirana tells Flightglobal that the number of CS300s it will order will be in the double-digit range, and deliveries could occur as early as 2016.

...

"We are interested to operate the CS300 on long thin routes both domestically in Indonesia and internationally. We see that the size of the CSeries could be useful. Presently we operate 72-seat ATR 72s and 189-seat 737-800s and 215-seat 737-900ERs, so for us the CSeries fills a gap between the ATR 72 and the 737-800."

The C300's capacity makes it ideal for routes where passengers don't quite fill 737-800s.

So it looks like they are very serious about this.

Boeing and Airbus will have their hands full with delivering all those 737s and A320s, having a third supplier should accelerate Lion Air's growth even faster.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3037 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 6716 times:

I agree with an earlier post... Wheres the infrastructure to handle all this? The demand may be rising, but wheres the China styled airport construction program of having any chance of making this work? It needs to rapidly increase what it is doing to make any of this not cause MAJOR issues in only a few years.

1,000 aircraft? Insane.


User currently offlineneutrino From Singapore, joined May 2012, 664 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 5663 times:

Quoting Centre (Reply 15):
....And makes me believe that the NY article above is so right when it said that Indonesia would have been a far better country than they are now if they have a different political leadership.

On the other hand, it could also be argued that "Indonesia could have been a far worse country than they are now if they have a different political leadership." There are two sides to a coin. Who knows what a different political leadership would bring.

Quoting Centre (Reply 15):
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 15):

quite an angry guy

I don''t sense any anger in that post.
Disappointment, yes.
Disillusion, maybe.
Frustration, possibly.
Anger, certainly not.



Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
User currently offlinePlaneAdmirer From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 564 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 5427 times:

This along with Lions Air's other orders strikes me as a case of if we can get financing, we will buy it and see what happens. I believe the Ex-Im bank is financing the Boeing orders. Anyone know if the European counter part to the Ex Im is financing the Airbus orders? Does Canada have a similar institution?

Think of it another way: Who on here wants his or her private savings invested in Lion Air's credit risk for this many aircraft?


25 infiniti329 : Can they easily acquire the massive amount of pilots needed to run this operation of 700 + aircraft?
26 Post contains images lightsaber : I hope this comes through. Bombardier needs a few large orders. Once they have a firm order book well over a thousand, they could think that way. Easy
27 Post contains images mandala499 : Angry? No. If you want to see anger thrown at Lion Air, all you need to see is videos of passengers blowing their fuses whenever there's excess delay
28 Post contains images neutrino : Me. Ok, ok... just maybe a tiny fraction of 1%.
29 Post contains images mandala499 : Unfortunately, building infrastructure isn't one of our "fast paced work" when it comes to transportation. Let's look at the case of new Medan Airpor
30 Post contains links Dash9 : Yes there is such an institution, the Business Development Bank of Canada http://www.bdc.ca/en/Pages/home.aspx
31 Post contains images EPA001 : You gave a fantastic insight view on the situation of aviation in fast growing Indonesia. Being for 50% of Indonesian blood myself I found these post
32 Flighty : Can we have someone knowledgable explain the traffic growth in Indonesia? What is the network? Not only interesting in airline terms, but it can also
33 PlaneAdmirer : Is it then reasonable to assume that the Business Development Bank of Canada (your taxpayers, I assume) will be funding this purchase?
34 Post contains links queb : Not BDC, it's EDC (Export Development Canada). Here's an example: http://www.edc.ca/EN/About-Us/News-R...ases/Pages/edc-agreement-icbc.aspx
35 Post contains images Dash9 : You are absolutely right, I confused EDC and BDC. Both deal with corporate 'welfare', BDC internally and EDC externaly
36 Post contains links lightsaber : Yet Indonesian aviation is growing quick. I see the frustration. Yet somehow it has expanded. What happened to the 45 airports under construction for
37 ZKCIF : what I saw looked disastrous. lion was failing to control HUGE crowds at the FEW check-in counters while other airlines seemed to do ok or so-so. the
38 Post contains images lightsaber : That sounds as if the terminal expansion is past due. Indonesia's economy is growing, so that means more passengers. While the airports might lack am
39 lutfi : Re airports - yep will take a long time. And they are building them in the wrong places. E.g. the new Jogja airport will be 2 hours away from Jogja, v
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