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Where Will NK Fly Its New A321s?  
User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6886 times:
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Hi all! Hope you're all haviing a great weekend.  

So back in June Spirit Airlines (NK) ordered 20 new Airbus a321 aircraft for delivery between 2015 and 2017. Now I know that those dates are pretty far away, but where do we think that spirit will send these aircraft? I'm willing to bet a few things:

1. They will probably use a couple to replace their existing 2-bird-strong a321 fleet, which will be around 10-11 years old by that time. Spirit seems to like their fleet young (understandable, given how hard they work their aircraft).
2. FLL-LGA will get more a321 rotations (there is only one now out of 4 flights).
3. They will add capacity out of DFW on heavier routes (LAX, LAS, LGA)
4. Maybe they can use the a321s to lessen the burden on the a320s and a319s, so they can open new markets such as CVG, MEM, BLI (or SEA, but they seem like they'd go for BLI first). OR they could expand on current stations (MSY could be a potential candidate).

What are some of your ideas? Are any of my predictions off base of unrealistic?

Also, let's try not to start a NK-bashing thread, or anything like that.Thanks!  


\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 320 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6585 times:

Im thinking NK isnt at SEA is that they would get slaughtered by AS.


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User currently offlineopethfan From Canada, joined Dec 2012, 519 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6416 times:

Is BLI capable of supporting a second ULCC?

User currently offlineroswell41 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 781 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6296 times:

ORD-LGA, ORD-FLL, ORD-LAS come to mind immediately for the A321. Pretty much any mature NK route could be a candidate for an up gauge. Depending on the capability of the A321 NEO, I could see more A320 NEO orders converted. Those frames could be used for a push deeper into Latin America, Hawaii or even introduce the ULCC concept across the North Atlantic.

User currently offlinebeechtobus From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 310 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6159 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 1):
Im thinking NK isnt at SEA is that they would get slaughtered by AS.

Seeing as AS has done little to "slaughter" other airlines that have encroached onto its SEA markets in recent years (i.e. B6, WN, F9, etc. and G4 if you include BLI), coupled with the fact that NK has obviously fared just fine expanding and maintaining in other airlines fortresses, I highly doubt that AS is whats keeping NK out of SEA. NK caters to a completely different passenger than AS. I feel that of a lack of metal coupled with the high fees at SeaTac is currently keeping NK out. I do think, however, NK setting up shop in SEA (or maybe BLI) will be a matter of when, not if.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Thread starter):
4. Maybe they can use the a321s to lessen the burden on the a320s and a319s, so they can open new markets such as CVG, MEM, BLI (or SEA, but they seem like they'd go for BLI first). OR they could expand on current stations (MSY could be a potential candidate).

Agreed that the 321s will take over the busier routes and the 319s and 320s will 'feel out' new cities/routes. Regarding SEA vs. BLI, that's a tough call. They seem to have been shifting to more central airport as of late (i.e. AZA ops moving to PHX, opening PHL vs. expanding ACY) and most of their other markets they serve the main airport, but serving PBG and IAG shows that they do like the trans border traffic. BLI would let them capture some of that action. Very hard to tell


Quoting opethfan (Reply 2):
Is BLI capable of supporting a second ULCC?

Sure. Besides a short stint both serving Vegas, NK and G4 got along just fine in AZA, NK serving the likes of DFW, DEN, ORD and many one stop passengers to FLL, and G4 serving several small markets. I'm sure that we would see a similar setup in BLI should NK open a station there.

To answer the OP, I think the 321s will be all over the map, wherever needed. NK has proven to be very flexible in its marketing and these 321s would probably jump all over the system to follow routes with higher demand. I do agree with roswell41 though that gate constrained places like ORD, LGA, and FLL will likely see the bulk of them.


User currently offlineopethfan From Canada, joined Dec 2012, 519 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 6067 times:

My concern with BLI is that it depends almost entirely on the fact that taxes / fees are higher in Canada than in the US. As unlikely as it may be, if the Canadian gov't decides one day to slash taxes, WS wins big while G4 and NK lose much of their market. That may not be a risk NK are willing to take.

User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1020 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5968 times:

Quoting opethfan (Reply 5):
My concern with BLI is that it depends almost entirely on the fact that taxes / fees are higher in Canada than in the US. As unlikely as it may be, if the Canadian gov't decides one day to slash taxes, WS wins big while G4 and NK lose much of their market. That may not be a risk NK are willing to take.

Sure, YVR could unilaterally cut fees but the NavCan fees (and more) are nationwide. There's also little prospect of the U.S. slashing incoming and outgoing foreign traveler fees, and that's a big source of the advantage of BLI-U.S. destinations vs. YVR-U.S.


User currently offlinePRAirbus From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2005, 1139 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3961 times:

NK has consistently flown its current A321 to SJU from MCO, probably SJU will see new A321s.

User currently offlineF9animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5050 posts, RR: 28
Reply 8, posted (11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3939 times:

It is not if, but when NK comes to SEA. I know I can't wait till it happens. Even better if they use a 321! I remember working US east 321's. Man, that plane was sweet.


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User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3245 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3793 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 1):
Im thinking NK isnt at SEA is that they would get slaughtered by AS
Quoting beechtobus (Reply 4):
I highly doubt that AS is whats keeping NK out of SEA
NK started to test the waters of the Northwest in Portland for a reason, They wanted to see how AS would react with their presence, and in true AS form, AS matched their ridiculous fares, AS increased flights on the LAS-PDX route, NK then dropped one of two LAS flights, added a SAN flight, that just ends up in LAS anyway.

The DFW flight is currently not operating, not sure if it will again, I see it on their route map, but no flights come up except 1 stop options via LAS.

I would say AS has shown NK the door out of the Northwest already, I would be very surprised if NK makes advances on AS in Seattle, because yes it will be a bloodbath that AS can afford & NK won't stay long enough to make headway.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 4):
Seeing as AS has done little to "slaughter" other airlines that have encroached onto its SEA markets in recent years (i.e. B6, WN
AS has pounced on B6 over and over again, PDX-LGB (a route AS swore they would not operate again, the last time they pulled out) is being operated, maybe even at a loss, just for B6 benefit, courtesy of AS.

AS stepped up SEA-BOS, and B6 had one seasonal flight between SEA & ANC this year, so AS offered triple miles and had 13-14 departures daily. AS now flies PDX-BOS along side B6.

And WN has pulled back routes like GEG-SEA, GEG-PDX, BOI-SEA, BOI-PDX all due to AS. AS just added one PDX-RNO r/t and WN dropped one of only two daily flights they operate. AS has chased more than that, and they do it well.

AS will upgauge one PDX-BOI-PDX flight to an OO CR7, which I believe will feed the BOI-SAN flight coming up soon.

IMHO, AS changed from MIA to FLL to feed South Florida just to keep B6 from trying to encroach on the route.

Back to the OPs topic, I think the 321 is the wrong aircraft for an airline that tries to turn around planes in 30 or less But I would expect NK to offer the 321 on the east coast, I do not see them coming west for a while still. LGA-FLL for sure.

[Edited 2013-09-29 04:57:05]


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User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (11 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2998 times:
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Quoting RWA380 (Reply 9):
Back to the OPs topic, I think the 321 is the wrong aircraft for an airline that tries to turn around planes in 30 or less But I would expect NK to offer the 321 on the east coast, I do not see them coming west for a while still. LGA-FLL for sure.

Spirit has been inching further and further away from those quick turnarounds lately. A lot of their flights at MYR have over an hour. Some places, (LGA), that have constrained gatespace do have some quicker turnarounds, but not as quick as they used to be. (Example: flight 300 (operated by an a320) comes into LGA from MYR at 10:31A and goes back to MYR at 11:40A)



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlinebeechtobus From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 310 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (11 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 1853 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 9):
They wanted to see how AS would react with their presence, and in true AS form, AS matched their ridiculous fares, AS increased flights on the LAS-PDX route, NK then dropped one of two LAS flights

NK dropped a frequency from all of its original LAS-West Coast cities Including SAN, OAK, and LAX (they dropped 3 dailys from LAX), as well as PDX. hardly see that this is strictly AS showing them the door.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 9):
The DFW flight is currently not operating, not sure if it will again, I see it on their route map, but no flights come up except 1 stop options via LAS.

AS just began PDX-DFW in mid-Sept and NK hasn't operated the route all summer, so again, I hardly see the AS slaughtering NK correlation there.

I will give you the point that AS has driven WN off of some intra PNW route but WN remains very strong on other non-PNW routes out of SEA and PDX. And while you're right about AS putting up a fight against B6 in SEA and PDX, B6 has only grown in the PNW since they began service up there and has held its own quite nicely.

Lastly, AS has done very little to stifle Allegiant in BLI despite AS going into BLI, guns blazing, and trying to get them out of the northern part of their SEA catchment. I believe at one point AS and G4 each had 2 a day to LAS, now its G4 at 4 daily to AS's single daily. Never mind all the inroads G4 has made here along the west coast, southwest and to the islands from BLI

The point being that I would be very shocked to see NK not begin service to SEA (or BLI) at some point in the near future. How AS reacts and whether they get slaughtered in SEA is yet to be seen, but I guarantee AS is not what's currently keeping NK out of the Seattle area.


User currently offlinesanti319 From Mexico, joined Dec 2005, 397 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (11 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 1649 times:

Does the A321NEO has the range to operate a (218+pax) from ACY to east Europe?

User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (11 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 1632 times:
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Quoting santi319 (Reply 12):
Does the A321NEO has the range to operate a (218+pax) from ACY to east Europe?

East Europe? I doubt it. And it is still yet to be seen if they will even order the NEO. I see them doing it eventually but it is still too soon to be making predictions where it will go.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlinesanti319 From Mexico, joined Dec 2005, 397 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (11 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1403 times:

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 13):
Quoting santi319 (Reply 12):
Does the A321NEO has the range to operate a (218+pax) from ACY to east Europe?

East Europe? I doubt it. And it is still yet to be seen if they will even order the NEO. I see them doing it eventually but it is still too soon to be making predictions where it will go.

I meant to say West Europe... Sorry don't know whats wrong with me today lol.


User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (11 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1313 times:
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Quoting santi319 (Reply 14):

I thought that was what you meant!  

I wonder if MYR will see any a321s? They run LGA-MYR twice daily and it is consistently full on a320s. Also FLL-MYR-BOS has seen a321s before.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3245 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (11 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 1111 times:

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 11):
AS just began PDX-DFW in mid-Sept and NK hasn't operated the route all summer, so again, I hardly see the AS slaughtering NK correlation there

I did not say that AS drove NK off the PDX-DFW route. What I said was NK is not currently operating it, that is all.

Quoting beechtobus (Reply 11):
Lastly, AS has done very little to stifle Allegiant in BLI despite AS going into BLI, guns blazing,

AS has done enough in BLI, it is not an infinite market. G4 has done well, because they cater to the bargain hunters who are trying to save some bucks on taxes, those are not the customers AS tries to attract. If it were the clientele they wanted, they would stop flying SEA-YVR. It's Apples and Oranges.

The fact is, AS defends it's turf in SEA, ANC and PDX, it is no secret that AS is the big capacity lift in the Northwest and wants it to stay that way.



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