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Almost One Year Since Last A380 Order Part 3  
User currently offlineiowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4364 posts, RR: 6
Posted (9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 24070 times:
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Due to length of part two here is part three.

Previous thread: Almost One Year Since Last A380 Order Part 2 (by iowaman Sep 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)


Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD. Return: US SJD-PHX, WN PHX-MDW-DSM
259 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (9 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 24060 times:
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Quoting 2175301:

I tend to read a lot more than I post these days; but to me the real question is not is there an existing and future market for the A380; but can Airbus charge enough per plane to achieve a profit on assembly. Otherwise - there really is no reason to keep the production line open.

As for market: I have long held the belief that the A380's market was overhyped and smaller than originally stated. There are profitable routes; just not a lot of them.

My gut feeling is that the long term market is probably in the 15-20 planes per year; with 25 per year a stretch.

Airbus production facilities were based on a lot more than that (something like 40 per year); and it has oft been repeated that they need essentially 30 per year to achieve breakeven on assembly cost (based on the sales cost of the first several hundred planes).

I am not going to go back and count the number of projections for reaching break even on production cost. Currently it is 2015; but, I am skeptical based on past history. Until then - Airbus looses money on every plane they assemble (and no - maintenance and service contracts do not make up for that - no Mfr can stay in business if they cannot at least break even on the production cost of their primary product - demonstrably true in multiple industries - that also sell spare parts and service contracts).

It has been stated that once they reach break even in 2015 that magically somehow they will then be able to break-even with substantially fewer frames per year. As someone who has worked in and studied Manufacturing I have never seen such a thing. Incremental improvements yes - but somehow major changes: no.

Now Airbus can certainly charge more per A380 in the future to offset that; which affects the economics of the A380.

But, can Airbus and their long term potential customers come to an agreement on price that makes keeping the production line open for only 15-20 planes per year? That is the real question that I see.

With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Boeing probably has lost money on every 747-8 delivered and yet they keep holding out hope that the market (at least for cargo) will turn and make the program profitable. And as they're far less in the hole on the 747-8 than Airbus is on the A380-800.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 2, posted (9 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 23848 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, Stitch - and, in addition, it's important to 'keep faith' with their customers. They still have about 150 orders outstanding. I don't suppose they'd be awfully upset if some of their customers switched their orders to the A350-1000 (or 1100) though; which could very well happen.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4700 posts, RR: 38
Reply 3, posted (9 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 23552 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, to keep them is much more sensilbe to do, especially if the program will be around for at least another 25 years.  .

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
I don't suppose they'd be awfully upset if some of their customers switched their orders to the A350-1000 (or 1100) though; which could very well happen.

Well, the likes of VS could go this route as nobody is really expecting them to take up on their order. So in that respect it is a win for Airbus if they would switch to the A350-1000.  .


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 914 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 23495 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 3):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, to keep them is much more sensilbe to do, especially if the program will be around for at least another 25 years.  .

I think an A380 refresh in the 2020's would coincide nicely with the change in market conditions towards VLA's. The money already lost on the program is lost, so moving forward the trick is how to obtain as much value as possible out of the A380 resources and infrastructure.


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 831 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (9 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 23367 times:

Interesting article in Aviation Week on Transaero, with three important pieces of news:

- Transaero seems to have every intention of taking up the 4 B748i's for which it signed an MoU in 2011, starting in 2015. Even though this MoU has still not been firmed up in Boeing's order book...
- After trying out the A380 (the first delivery of which will take place in 2014) and the B748i, it will decide on further fleet renewal. I read this as Transaero being a candidate for further A380 and/or B748i orders...
- It intends to deploy the A380 on mass tourism routes, and the B748i on premium routes.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....d_10_16_2013_p01-01-627228.xml&p=1


User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (9 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 22808 times:

And a little more related information from today's Aviation Daily:

- Boeing to reduce 747-8 production rate to 1.5 per month.
- Blames extended slowdown in cargo aircraft market, expects to recover in 2014
- Orderbook stands at 107, with 56 delivered.
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years
- Believes that 777X will impact forecast
-Remains committed to 747-8


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 7, posted (9 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 22725 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years

Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Believes that 777X will impact forecast

And that, of course, points to even less than 38?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (9 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 22692 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

... and if half of that is freighters... That leaves a potential of 19 passenger planes per year.

Have a great day,


User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 months 1 week ago) and read 22644 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
And that, of course, points to even less than 38?

Yep... Eating the bottom of the pyramid.


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 914 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (9 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 22583 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

... and if you take the 38 as the mean and use 3% growth in market you have 28 deliveries in 2013 and 48 deliveries in 2033.

The current rate of both A380 and 748i deliveries stands at 46 in 2013. Using Airbus forecast of 25 A380 deliveries per year and Boeings forecast of 18 748i deliveries per year, which I have again downgraded to 12 deliveries per year in 2016 we will have a fundamental oversupply of VLA's in the market up till 2021.

Of course this is totally prefaced on the market being linear and growing at 3% pa.

It could be the case demand for VLA's is higher at the start years of the forecast due to existing VLA's (747's) being retired and needing replacing. If this is the case, than once replacement of these aircraft has occurred demand for new build VLA's will drop off dramatically.

... but looking at who is currently operating 744's and who is purchasing A380's there seems to be a shift away from current VLA operators to new VLA operators.

So, from what I can see the forecast is based upon routes that require an A380 or 748i type aircraft and not who is currently operating the type.

If this is the case, than as a route grows it will reach an inflection point where an A380 or 748i type aircraft is needed resulting in sporadic demand for VLA's.

... or it could be the case airlines are holding off on purchasing VLA's until such time the number routes that require VLA's has reached a point where they can comfortably purchase a fleet of aircraft ensuring economy of scale economics.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 11, posted (9 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 22581 times:
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Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year....

That more than enough deliveries to keep the A380 profitable on a production basis, so...


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3379 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 22461 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year....

That more than enough deliveries to keep the A380 profitable on a production basis, so...

No new A380 orders for about a year now. I don't see that it matters how many orders are received per 12 month peroid or per calendar year. More important to me is that orders over multi-year periods are sufficient to maintain production on a profitable basis. Assuming a production rate of 25 per annum there are sufficient "firm" firm orders (forgetting Virgin, Kingfisher etc) to maintain that rate for 5+ years. If orders for a further 50 are received over the next 5 years (a very conservative estimate, I believe) the line will be kept busy until 2020+.

It looks likely that EK will place substantial orders to start replacing its current A380's before then. SQ may re-order before then, too. Replacement orders from these 2 airlines alone would then keep the line busy until about 2024.

I wonder how much it would cost Airbus to do a MLU for delivery 2020 onwards.


User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 22149 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years

I did a little digging about this number on the Boeing Forecast site:

Yes; Boeing does forecast the need for 760 new 748 & A380's over 20 years (Passenger and freight markets detail - Large Widebody: with only the 748 & A380 currently in this catagory); but if you look at the Large Freighter Market Forecast you will see that 640 of those are Freighters (with the 748 being the only current Freighter in this catagory - and I do not foresee any other Freighter entering this catagory). That leaves a forecast of 120 A380's for the next 20 years.

However, if you also look at the "Passenger Large Widebody" segment you will see an estimate of 610 new deliveries over 20 years. The two numbers do not make sense unless Boeing is assuming that some other plane will enter the "Passenger Large Widebody" segment - and get the lions share of the orders over the next 20 years.

Currently, Boeing list all the current A350 models (including A350-1000) and all current 777 models in the "Passenger Medium Widebody" segment; a segment that Boeing estimates will more than double in size over the next 20 years.

I hope that clarifies the estimate over the next 20 years.

Have a great day,


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3379 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 22044 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 13):

Those Boeing estimates are a bit of a mystery to me. Over the next 20 years they foresee sales of 760 x A380/B748 of which 640 freighters. They seem to think that demand for the A380/748i has almost disappeared.

It looks like they think that EK will not replace their A380's with A380's. How likely is that when EK say they would double the size of their A380 fleet if the infrastructure to support them existed at Dubai?


User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1034 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (9 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 21968 times:

Quoting art (Reply 14):
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 13):

Those Boeing estimates are a bit of a mystery to me. Over the next 20 years they foresee sales of 760 x A380/B748 of which 640 freighters. They seem to think that demand for the A380/748i has almost disappeared.

It looks like they think that EK will not replace their A380's with A380's. How likely is that when EK say they would double the size of their A380 fleet if the infrastructure to support them existed at Dubai?

And a little more digging indicates that Boeing believes the 777x will indeed replace most of the 748i & A380s. IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

Of course, Boeing still has to get the 777x off the ground; and Airlines will be able to get A380's quicker than 777x's at this time.

Have a great day.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3385 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (9 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 21903 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 15):
IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

The 77X may indeed have better seat costs than EK's current A380s but their A380s represent more revenue and they need the traffic to feed their other routes at their increasingly strained airport. A gigantic airport full of 777X may indeed be more profitable but it is not realistic given airports constraints, saying nothing about the A380 improvements that will inevitably be coming down the pike. Also, customer feedback on EK A380s is said to be strong.

tortugamon


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 831 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (9 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 21432 times:

The Economic Times of India has a good article on A380 prospects, apparently coming from Reuters.

Highlights:

- Airbus will not produce white tails. If the remaining 2015 slots cannot be filled, it will rather cut production. However, some deliveries planned for later years may be brought forward to avoid a near-term production cut.
- Leahy remains confident of signing a number of deals before year-end, so as to end the year with a net positive change in the order book.
- The Doric order may be firmed up next month.
- Airbus may "review the situation and strategy" for the A380 at year-end, according to an anonymous industry source.
- Clark remains bullish on the A380 and confirms his interest in a stretched version, as a bigger plane would work quite nicely on most routes [presumably meaning current Emirates A380 routes].
- Doric's Lapidus also remains in the bullish camp. He reports that several airlines were going to take the A380 but didn't because of the global economic slowdown. He expects "significantly more orders" in the next 12 months, and expects the stretch to happen sooner or later, depending in part on how successful Doric will be in marketing the A380.
- Airbus is in no rush to change the A380's design, but it and some suppliers reportedly have started to "think" about what may be needed.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...in-orders/articleshow/24614138.cms

In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/go...ibility-of-airbus-380-ops/1186092/

Finally, there is the trashy and factually challenged (production rate of "less than 17 per year"....) article in Time:

http://business.time.com/2013/10/23/...lds-fattest-most-expensive-turkey/

There is a separate thread on this last article, but I share the view of many others that we do not need a new thread for every (negative) press item on the A380's sales prospects.

[Edited 2013-10-23 10:30:34]

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9975 posts, RR: 96
Reply 18, posted (9 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 21374 times:
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Quoting 2175301 (Reply 15):
IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

Good question. But they have reinforced their long-term commitment to the A380 whilst at the same time seemingly closing in on a large 777X order.

So are you suggesting something about the 777X's overall economics relative to the A380?
Or am I reading something that isn't there?  

Rgds


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 10667 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (9 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 21265 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
The Economic Times of India has a good article on A380 prospects, apparently coming from Reuters.

That's a good article, thanks for sharing.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus will not produce white tails. If the remaining 2015 slots cannot be filled, it will rather cut production. However, some deliveries planned for later years may be brought forward to avoid a near-term production cut.

Cutting production a bit (I believe we're talking about 2 open slots) is much cheaper than building white tails.

The 2015 slots must be taken up by an existing customer. If Doric takes them, they could place them with MH for example. I believe MH is looking at 2 more.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Leahy remains confident of signing a number of deals before year-end, so as to end the year with a net positive change in the order book.

The 2013 sales target is 25 gross units, he only need another 5 if Doric signs for 20 units.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- The Doric order may be firmed up next month.

That's the second article claiming it will be firmed next month.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus may "review the situation and strategy" for the A380 at year-end, according to an anonymous industry source.

What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Doric's Lapidus also remains in the bullish camp. He reports that several airlines were going to take the A380 but didn't because of the global economic slowdown. He expects "significantly more orders" in the next 12 months, and expects the stretch to happen sooner or later, depending in part on how successful Doric will be in marketing the A380.

The A380 is a big risk in a slow growing economic time. Clearly a lessor will take many of those risks away. If this construction works, we might see more orders in the future.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus is in no rush to change the A380's design, but it and some suppliers reportedly have started to "think" about what may be needed.

I assume this means looking at ways to make the A380 more competitive around the end of the decade.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

Now Clark may rethink his 2-class A380 plans again.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
Finally, there is the trashy and factually challenged (production rate of "less than 17 per year"....) article in Time:

The production rate is higher (25 this year, 28 next year).



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (9 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 21229 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

Airbus is currently writing a check with every A380 they deliver. Or said another way, they are receiving payment less than it costs to produce the aircraft delivered. No company can sustain that for any period of time.

My take is that if the order goal for 2013 isn't met and there is no confidence for 2014+, they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 10667 posts, RR: 30
Reply 21, posted (9 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 21186 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 20):
they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.

That would even cost more money. It's all about going forward, hence investments will be made in order to stay competitive. If the A380 doesn't receive any new orders in the next few years, than we will have another story.

[Edited 2013-10-23 11:46:06]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3385 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (9 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 21129 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

I think this just means they will review and update the plan for the aircraft like they do with every product line before they give future guidance. I don't think this is anything out of the ordinary. I am sure they will look at their backlog and order interest and determine whether their production rate is sustainable and if there are alternate strategies to sell more, increase efficiency, or reduce production rate.

tortugamon


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 23, posted (9 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 21052 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

I assume it means they are considering lowering the production rate, as Boeing has recently done with the 747-8.


Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 20):
My take is that if the order goal for 2013 isn't met and there is no confidence for 2014+, they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.

My take is there is absolutely no chance of that happening.

[Edited 2013-10-23 12:28:18]

User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2686 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (9 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 21053 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):

In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

Well THAT would be good news for the A 380 programme. The A 380 was designed for countries like China and India and yet so far there is not a single A 380-connection to India. 
Quoting art (Reply 12):

No new A380 orders for about a year now. I don't see that it matters how many orders are received per 12 month peroid or per calendar year. More important to me is that orders over multi-year periods are sufficient to maintain production on a profitable basis.

You are correct, it doesn't matter how much they sell in 12 months. Problem is, even when looking back two years it doesn't look much better. I don't have my old database at hand right now so I cannot provide the exact numbers but IIRC the average of the last years was less than 20 and that does include the Hong Kong order.

Well, let's hope sales will go up again and in a few years the typical A 380 will sing that old Led Zeppelin song while taxiing on the tarmac "Good times, bad times, you know I have had my share..."   ... and all the 747s on the tarmac will turn around and say with hoarse voice "yes, it was the same with me"


25 DTW2HYD : Well there is a cap on total seats for EK, so if they fly a A380, they have to cut number of flights. There is no way to win. LH can use it, but not
26 Post contains links Scipio : Some more on this: http://www.livemint.com/Companies/Nv...irbus-A380-impact-on-airfares.html Unsurprisingly, Air India is opposed...
27 Post contains images Stitch : Air India would be opposed if they had A380s themselves, probably. [Edited 2013-10-23 14:47:39]
28 N14AZ : But there must be a reason why they ask for permission to send the A 380 to India. Quote from the link Scipio provided above: The other link includes
29 francoflier : Rumours are starting to brew about a possible EK order at the Dubai Air Show next month... There are talks of 777X (and lots of them), and an A380 top
30 art : It would be interesting if EK ordered 2 for delivery in 2015 as part of a modest expansion of their fleet. Any chance of that happening? Regarding a l
31 tortugamon : I would be surprised if the two openings in 2015 are not indicative of the more openings in 2016. Others will know better but I am not sure if sellin
32 KarelXWB : Clark is always complaining about being short of airframes, there must be other reasons why he can't take those 2 slots. They are studying multiple o
33 BaconButty : EK is, as you say, capped at 54000. However, they use the A380 to extract a premium per seat, so may view the aircraft as a way to grow revenues in s
34 DTW2HYD : There is no nationwide 54,000 number. Each station has a weekly seat restriction. All Indian bilaterals are rigged to prevent any creative practices,
35 glbltrvlr : Amortization of development costs is off the table. Those costs are sunk and will never be recovered if you take into account the time value of money
36 scouseflyer : As you say, the dev costs are gone and spent and we're talking about cash flow position. It can't really be told whether that point has been reached
37 BaconButty : I've read the bilateral (with Dubai) and I'm fully aware of this (though by definition, the sum of all the stations is a national figure, if we're pl
38 astuteman : I don't believe this is strictly accurate. As far as I'm aware Airbus never explicitly linked break-even on production costs to delivering 30 frames.
39 DTW2HYD : It is exactly that. In case of EK, most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100. EY/9W will have access to 23 stations, but EY is restricted to
40 BaconButty : Yes but not at the hubs. As I stated but you deliberately ignored. Anyway, you'd better get on to Tim Clark, because the old fool is clearly deluded.
41 DTW2HYD : What do you mean not at the hubs, Delhi - 8000 seats/Weekly, Mumbai - 4500 seats/Weekly. It will be 2 daily flights to Delhi and 1 daily flight to Mu
42 glbltrvlr : True - agreed.
43 Post contains links BaconButty : I'll try to make this simple: You said "most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100." I said "Yes but not at the hubs. " And I was right. It's
44 DTW2HYD : Its a math problem. EK doesn't operate all flights all days. AFAIK 29000/week/each way still valid. Let's leave at that.
45 travelhound : There is a little more to this than just profits or cash flows. If we look at Airbus’s sales and deliveries to date from a pure investment perspect
46 Scipio : The FT is reporting today that Emirates is considering placing orders for A380s and A350s at the upcoming Dubai show. Orders for the Airbus models mig
47 Post contains images scbriml : I've been of the view for some time that EK would order additional A380s this year. Additional A350s would be more of a surprise. I've always believe
48 art : To quote the FT article: "Mr Clark said Emirates, which has placed orders for 90 A380s so far, has a longstanding interest in buying another 20 super
49 tortugamon : Emirates has said they don't have a need for anything smaller than 340 seats. A switch to the 1000 is not a surprise. tortugamon
50 Post contains images Stitch : Tim Clark has in the past noted he feels the A350-1000 is more a "super 777-200ER" than a true 777-300ER replacement for his needs, though Airbus hav
51 Post contains images EPA001 : Which is only logical seeing the upward trend of airliners getting bigger and bigger on average. And the A350-1000 is gaining more and more momentum
52 Post contains images astuteman : Seriously? IMO, whatever happens, that perception is never going to either gain traction, or be accepted. Not on A-net Nope. not surprising. But amus
53 KarelXWB : Emirates has 2-class aircraft in the fleet and an A359 can hold more than 340 seats in this configuration. A maybe bigger issue was having 2 differen
54 Post contains links KarelXWB : Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s. http://www.ausbt.com.au/china-southe...ises-better-meals-more-aussie-crew
55 Stitch : Guess they have convinced CAAC to give them slots at PEK?
56 Post contains links and images Scipio : Now we just need Thai to join the club of those who want more Reading that article, I was surprised how big China Southern is and how fast it is grow
57 Post contains images EPA001 : That is nice and another confirmation of the qualities the A380 (and on a different level) the B787 have. But to order some more A380's would be even
58 N14AZ : Funny, I am just sitting in CZ's lounge in PEK and while opening a.net I was looking on their rendering of the A 380 and was thinknig to myself "uh,
59 Nav20 : For myself, I think that there will certainly be SOME more orders for the A380 - and even some for the 748, especially the freighter. But, IMO, nothi
60 na : Who knows, its 10 years until we´ll know. Could also be that the 777-9X is drowned between the A350-1000 and the A380, or at least, limited in its l
61 Post contains links KarelXWB : Mr Baker confirmed there will be an A350 order at the Dubai air show. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...atar-airways-idUSBRE99S0G020131029[Edite
62 art : With 6 x A380 the cost per frame of running such a small sub-fleet of the type must be quite high. If CZ has found a way to harness the qualities of
63 fcogafa : I don't think the article says that, it says: ====================== Qatar Airway's al-Baker said the airline would place another plane order during
64 Post contains images tortugamon : I agree. I read the article three times thinking it was saying that they were going to order the A350 but it just does not say that. However, if they
65 tortugamon : In China orders come through the central aviation purchasing department and then issued to airlines. For example, China has bought about 400 Max and
66 art : I think the percentage is a lot lower. Last line of the reuters article: "He added the carrier would not buy anymore Airbus A380 aircraft, adding it
67 Nav20 : Have to disagree, na. But only to the extent that we'll probably have a pretty good idea of which way the wind is blowing, as far as the B779 is conc
68 Post contains images EPA001 : Is there also going to be an 80m+ B777-10X? . Because, as you (should) know since it has been pointed out countless times already, the B777-9 will ho
69 KarelXWB : Indeed, although China singed a MoU for 18 more A330 aircraft, which CZ can get access to. They have 10 on firm order and 3 options. I assume they'll
70 Post contains images Nav20 : Please (belatedly) note that I said 'up to,' mate? We're largely in agreement there - since there simply haven't been any A380 sales for a year. Don'
71 Post contains images EPA001 : Yes, but the current B77W already does that easily if the fitting all economy interior would be selected. The current B77W will probably hold up to 5
72 tortugamon : I think it is unlikely unless the 777-9 sells extremely well or if A380 sales start to pick up. There is talk of pushing the 779x to 8,400nm so a sim
73 Post contains images astuteman : That was also before the MTOW went up 10 tonnes, and the range by 400nm So "unique" that it doesn't actually exist, nor will it when the 777-9X flies
74 Post contains images tortugamon : JAL and ANA have 773s that fit 500 and 514 in two class configuration. However, I agree with your overall point. And if the 787 was trying to sell sl
75 Post contains images EPA001 : So the B77W is already a +500 seater and that is even with a two class layout. Makes my point even stronger. . Thank you. .[Edited 2013-10-29 05:46:5
76 Nav20 : Very interesting that you use the expression 'hate,' friend. Do you see all this as some sort of 'religious conflict' - as opposed to which of the maj
77 N14AZ : Hmmm, I have the feeling there is a missunderstanding about my intentions. If you read the question in the first part you can see that I just used th
78 Stitch : I would expect Boeing is pitching the 777-8 at 9-abreast 777-300ER customers as it offers significantly better payload weight at design range than the
79 KarelXWB : I can understand why they do it. That said, we don't live in the Stone Age anymore, it's time for an update. That's true, but they broke the traditio
80 glbltrvlr : From the same interview:
81 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : Airbus's biggest competitor to the A380 is it's own A350, which will come in various size models. Airlines are waiting for the A350 to come on line. T
82 Stitch : Honestly, I'm not sure how relevant the ACAP configurations are, anyway, considering the variety of seating and classes of service airlines employ.
83 Post contains images KarelXWB : You're right. It would only make discussions on this forum easier, but that's not something the aircraft manufacturers are worried about [Edited 2013
84 Post contains links KarelXWB : Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting i
85 glbltrvlr : Very interesting article. A couple of other key points: - "A380 program will have a stretched version, maybe in 10 or 15 years from now" - "The targe
86 KarelXWB : Do you have any more information about this new galley configuration? Will it also apply to the A350-900? And where is this 340 seat figure coming fr
87 Post contains images Stitch : I expect Bregier can only make that statement because John Leahey has told him he has secured the sales. I do not (see below for why). I do not know.
88 fcogafa : So is that 20 for Doric and 5 for Emirates?
89 Viscount724 : What source do you use for that type of data? I've always had difficulty finding cabin area numbers.
90 Post contains images EPA001 : Very interesting comments from Aspire. So 395 seats is the more realistic number which puts another (but better) perspective on the offerings to the
91 DTW2HYD : So, who is in-charge here, Tom Enders, Fabrice Bregier and John Leahy are saying slightly different versions about the program. Enders said they will
92 tortugamon : The seating numbers mentioned by Aspire will not be news to airlines as they make their own calculations based on their own configurations. It does n
93 mjoelnir : That may be, but it would be still nice to discuss with realistic comparable numbers.
94 tortugamon : And it would be nice to have consistent methodology as well. Unfortunately neither OEM does both. tortugamon
95 astuteman : Noticed that, and it's the first time I've seen the two linked. Mind you, he also said that a rate of 25 made break-even harder to reach, but in a ma
96 mjoelnir : There is no reason for using slanted numbers from a OEM.
97 Post contains images KarelXWB : Five for Emirates sounds a bit low. Meeting the target of 25 sales means a minimum of 25. A bit harder but not undoable, Airbus had already cut produ
98 Post contains images EPA001 : Not with the airlines, I agree with you on that. But for the discussion here on A-net it makes a big difference. .
99 Post contains images Spike11 : New here, but grown up to the world, so behaving like a 14-year old wanting the latest iPhone isn't really what I'm about, but I really, really would
100 racercoup : You only quoted a part of the story. The real story in the article cited is not That Airbus will meet it's target of 25 in 2013 but that they are eff
101 Post contains images KarelXWB : This thread is mainly about A380 orders/sales, hence I only quoted the sales target. And without any new orders for the year so far, someone at Airbu
102 mjoelnir : There is no reason for using slanted numbers from a OEM. There are always many ways to interpret the quotes, especially if we do not get the full que
103 tortugamon : Not sure why the same post multiple times. Again, one OEM is inconsistent with their methodology and one uses dated methodology. Both are not all tog
104 Post contains images Nav20 : Personally, I see it as reduced demand, leading to lower production - for both Airbus and Boeing. Any of us who have worked in industry will 'know th
105 Post contains images EPA001 : We know it is your view, and even your wish when it comes to the A380? . But Airbus has just recently officially stated that the program will run for
106 tortugamon : I respectfully do disagree. Just replacing EK's 90 A380s would be reason enough to keep the line open longer than that. Emirates has stated they want
107 KarelXWB : We had this conversation before and came to other conclusions.
108 art : It sounds to me that Airbus has negotiated sales of 25 aircraft but is waiting to announce them (at Dubai). Assuming that Fabrice Bregier is not bein
109 mjoelnir : There will be 30 frames convoyed 2013 by the end of this year. There are three convoys expected in January 2014. There seems to be no slowing down re
110 travelhound : But I don't think we should expect Emirates to replace their A380's at the ten year mark like they have with some of their other planes. Singapore Ai
111 frmrcapcadet : 1988 seriously started considering 1994 announced they would build it solo 2000 launched with 50 order - December 2001 early in the year configuratio
112 Post contains images EPA001 : I do not agree. When it comes to the B777 or A330 we are speaking of airplanes almost 20 years old. We refer to the B747 as being almost 45 years old
113 Post contains images astuteman : don't agree on either count. They've put a floor on future years around which they will manage supply and demand. They're still targeting 30+ as for
114 N14AZ : It was in October 2007 with 9V-SKA (MSN 003), the first and only airframe delivered in 2007.
115 racercoup : It is a great plane, and I suspect that Airbus will produce it as long as they can afford to, even taking a small loss if they have to. Wow, what comf
116 mjoelnir : Yes Airbus lost four years of the B 787 bleeding stockholders money. What has losing a contract about 47 A 300 F to do with the A 380? Did UPS pick t
117 scouseflyer : UPS had 47 A300 on order and cancelled them for 10 A380s which they then cancelled and went for the 767. But that's not to say that the A300s wouldn'
118 Post contains links Kengo : Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/201
119 Scipio : Good article, with some interesting pieces of new information. Confirmation that the Doric order is about to be firmed up, that Doric is going with 1
120 Post contains images Stitch : So that seems to dispel the recent rumor that Doric's frames would be going to EK.
121 Post contains images EPA001 : Great news. . It does. But will EK add some more to their total order count? . Indeed it is. I especially like the sentence: [Edited 2013-11-05 17:43
122 Post contains images Scipio : This illustrates how one can indeed gain cabin width by moving the floor up. However, it raises questions: - how much weight does it add? - do you al
123 teraur : It is not a surprise but yesterday at their financial results conference, Air Austral CEO Mr Marie Joseph Malé confirmed that UU will not take delive
124 Post contains images KarelXWB : They paid 30 million euros in deposits. I don't know, they couldn't even take delivery of a B777-200LR.
125 7BOEING7 : Latest Av Week has an interesting commentary on the end of four engine aircraft and apparent comments from the AFA/KLM CEO that they may not take all
126 Stitch : Maybe an A320 to compliment their two 737-800s?
127 Post contains links KarelXWB : Not entirely. This website claims that Emirates is actively investigating installing 11-across seating on its A380 fleet: http://www.businesstravelle
128 tortugamon : Can someone remind me of the seat width of an 11 abreast A380? Can they get above 17" seats without compressing the aisles/armrests too much? I get 16
129 KarelXWB : It should give you the same comfort as on the B777-300ER at 10-abreast.
130 Prost : Shouldn't comfort be in quotation marks?
131 KarelXWB : That depends, do you like the comfort onboard an 10-abreast B77W? If the answer is no, you won't like an 11-abreast A380 neither.
132 tortugamon : Ok, so I imagine the assumption is that it will be able to breach the 17" mark. If this becomes more mainstream, do we think that the A389 stretch is
133 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : The default 10-abreast configuration is available here: http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi...ata/AC/Airbus-AC_A380_20121101.pdf Playing with those
134 tortugamon : Did you add the extra arm rest to the calculation? It looks like your 11-abreast calc is off by 1.5. It does appear that 17.0" is feasible. I could s
135 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : Nice catch, here's a better one: [Edited 2013-11-06 14:51:38]
136 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : The floor width on the main deck is about 248" while the max cabin width is 257", so their should be enough room for those arm rests. Speaking about
137 DUSint : I think that this is a very interesting detail regarding the 380 cabin. While having been seated in a window seat several times, I always noticed wha
138 KarelXWB : Yes, see the picture above. There is 248" from the first to the last seat while the maximum cabin width is 257". That's about 4.5" (11cm) space on ea
139 Post contains images tortugamon : That looks about right. I know 19" aisles are relatively common. I wonder about 17.2" I can see why Doric wants to add some floor height. I agree. It
140 Viscount724 : The 11-abreast A380 drawing in reply 151 shows both wider seats (18.5") and much wider aisles (20") than a 10-abreast 777. Looks much better to me if
141 tortugamon : Not sure if it is accurate but the lines look like they come down in the middle of the armrest rather than the seat cushion. At least that was my imp
142 Post contains images Stitch : The trick is, why does Doric need Airbus Sales support to sell to EK? I mean the only reason I can see for EK to buy direct from Doric as opposed to
143 Viscount724 : Those seat and aisle width numbers can't possibly be correct for an 11-abreast A380 configuration. Carriers with 10-abreast seating show seat widths
144 Nav20 : As far as I know, Stitch, the 'drill' is that, first off, EK (or another customer) agrees to lease the aeroplanes from Doric? So Doric first of all s
145 Scipio : If EK wants more A380s, it will buy them directly from Airbus and arrange financing in due course. The Doric A380s are not intended for EK. Doric has
146 Post contains images Nav20 : In fairness, Scipio, I did say 'EK (or another customer)'?
147 Scipio : Consider for once, earnestly, the possibility that what Doric says is actually true: that they found out that financing A380s is a good business, and
148 travelhound : My argument was more: the economics of owning an A380 has some fundamental differences to other aircraft meaning airlines that traditionally replace
149 Nav20 : Oh heck - we're not disagreeing........... Doric (and others) do deals with BOTH the manufacturer AND the operator. Basically, the rent has to be hig
150 Post contains images lightsaber : This I disagree on. It isn't the A388 is too small, its that a lower CASM would help sell further A380 airframes. Take the A321, it costs about 8% mo
151 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : I read the same article and have to agree with it about the demise of the A380 and 747 to the large twins except for the 747F or something similar. T
152 astuteman : The main deck of an A380 is 19" wider than that of a 777 - so an extra 17" seat and 2" armrest should fit nicely Yep. Either that, or can Airbus scal
153 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : I suppose you're right. After re-reading the Business Traveller article, it seems they have quoted Clark from saying EK looked at 11 abreast but ther
154 Nav20 : Misunderstanding, astuteman - I don't recall ever saying that they were? My guess is that their main clients are the investors? But that, to achieve
155 anfromme : Having just (well, less than 24 hours ago, anyway) come off the upper deck of an MH A380 (9M-MNF - the 100th A380 delivered, as it happens), I have t
156 Stitch : EK's Tim Clark reiterated again today that he wants more than 90 A380-800s, but lack of space at DXB is constraining his expansion plans.[Edited 2013-
157 Post contains images racercoup : I think the whole Doric MOU is a smoke screen meant to put lipstick on an order book that is starting to smell. 9 sales in 2012, -3 so far this year w
158 Stitch : So if Doric does firm their order in the coming weeks, what does that do to your theory? Or will the narrative change to state that Doric won't ever t
159 mjoelnir : Take out all the dodgy orders out of the A 380 order book, take away the birds still to be delivered this year and do not count Doric. That will leav
160 tortugamon : I have zero doubt of the A389's seat economics just its popularity. And if you can get similar economics from going 11 abreast in an A388 then why pu
161 mjoelnir : For 11 in a row, a 19" aisle, 1.5 inch armrest (6+3+3 excluding the window side) will give you 17.4 space between each armrest by keeping inside the 2
162 Post contains images anfromme : ...except Airbus don't add an order to its published order book while it's just an MoU. So until that order is firm, the order book won't look any be
163 DUSint : OK - I should have been more specific: Of course, I was just talking about the lower deck. While not having been on any A380 upper deck, I know of th
164 Post contains images Stitch : At least with the EK birds, Doric does take actual delivery of the airframe, and then EK pilots fly her to DXB from TLS or PAE.
165 Post contains images astuteman : Misunderstanding? I think not NAV. No matter. The point is made. I'd have a care though. Your "A380 sceptic" crown is being well and truly ripped fro
166 travelhound : I think the Doric order is interesting. From what I have read of them they are a leasing company with a different business model. From what I underst
167 KarelXWB : Indeed, that's how they financed their first 18 A380s (which are now flying with EK and SQ). There was an interesting document on the internet availa
168 travelhound : Not arguing there! I just think this order has new aspects to it. Maybe it is simply a case of the model evolving. I know airlines often enter into s
169 KarelXWB : Good point. Not in case of the A380 indeed. > 18 A380s (all leased out) > 20 A380s commitment And than EK has another 45 A380s on firm order (d
170 tortugamon : I think Doric is convinced that Doric won't exist if A380s don't sell well. tortugamon
171 racercoup : [quote=travelhound,reply=181]From what I understand the investors own the planes with Doric acting in an investment banker type role. They also have a
172 Stitch : How it works (at least as of late) is that Doric creates a wholly owned subsidiary named after the airframe. So in the case of MSN 077, Doric Nimrod
173 N14AZ : Yes, of course. And yesterday you called Airbus "your government's work fare programme called Airbus". So your true motiviation is perfectly clear no
174 travelhound : Sorry, I should have explained myself better. The operative words here are "with similar types of arrangements, so this isn't new". I am not trying t
175 astuteman : Where has it been said that fund managers aren't participants in the Doric model? All I see at the moment is some people trying to create a gulf out
176 Post contains links KarelXWB : That's an a.net myth, Doric themselves clearly thinks otherwise. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...end-airbus-jumbo-sale-drought.html
177 drew777 : I have a question about lease rates. There was speculation in this thread that Doric may set the seat count themselves and focus some frames on short
178 Post contains links KarelXWB : Emirates is likely to dominate at the Dubai show with what President Tim Clark has said could be an "enormous" order for Boeing’s new 777X model, to
179 glbltrvlr : I'm not getting the sense that these will be the 20 Doric A380s, which begs the question of where those Doric orders would go.
180 Post contains links bobdino : Airinsight was suggesting UA for at least some of them - see the last three paragraphs and the first two comments: http://airinsight.com/2013/10/28/t
181 tortugamon : I just can't see United making that decision. They have a large A351 order to more than cover their 747 retirements. They are not growing a significa
182 bobdino : I have no particular insights into or opinions on UA's plans, but if pushed to make a call one way or the other, I'd agree with you. Absent a massive
183 Post contains images EPA001 : Enormous could be 100 copies of the B777-X and maybe 10, 20 or 30 additional A380's? TK has always stated he wants 120 A380's, and so far they have o
184 Stitch : Agreed. UA recently overhauled the fleet's interiors and is keeping them all based at SFO (where they have a major 747 MRO) so I think they're going
185 Post contains links glbltrvlr : Well, here's where a couple of the new aircraft will be going... http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU131...-double-a380-service-to-munich.htm
186 Post contains images lightsaber : I had hopes of an A380 order by this point in the thread. You have a point. It is all about more seats (less CASM). But my thoughts are: 1. The A380 w
187 ricknroll : Not saying it's likely, but you can say that is one conversion Airbus would be happy to do.
188 Stitch : UA can use far more A350s then they can A380s so I would expect Airbus to not be interested.
189 ricknroll : They wouldn't convert the whole lot, of course. Just enough to cover the heaviest routes. Airbus would be happy with that. Not that I think it would h
190 fcogafa : Interesting wording, the B777X is an order but the A380 is a 'contract'.......suggesting the A380 will be a lease?
191 KarelXWB : Many of EK's A380s are on lease.
192 Stitch : But they were ordered from Airbus, then sold and leased-back to Doric just prior to delivery (ditto with some 77Ws and 77Ls). Could EK be leasing add
193 United Airline : Get CI, BR, CX, JL, UA to buy........... Problems solved. LOL
194 Post contains links tortugamon : I think the A380 currently is one of the most comfortable Y experiences there is. I imagine 11 abreast would bring it back in-line with our lowly com
195 Post contains images EPA001 : If they use the center tank for additional fuel the range of a possible A389 could easily exceed the range of the A388. Of course the payload will ta
196 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : Like the -800, I expect any future -900 to have different MTOW models too.
197 tortugamon : I would be surprised if Airbus did not build all widebodies to be MTOW limited rather than fuel volume limited. It doesn't add that much weight to ho
198 KarelXWB : The A380 freighter already had an extra fuel tank. The -800 doesn't have it, but it can easily be added again because it's part of the A380 design. A
199 mjoelnir : IMO the tank is there, but not activated. In the A 330 the weight difference is the plumbing, pumps and pipes.
200 kanban : Add to that the additional sealing and corrosion prevention measures.. true they don't weight tons bit they still add weight.
201 astuteman : That's my understanding also. I've been led in the past to understand that 2 or 3 tonnes gets added to the OEW as a consequence, but I've no back-up
202 qantas077 : the last 4 words are an understatement if there ever were one.
203 Post contains links KarelXWB : Speaking about it, Doric just took delivery of a new A380 for Emirates. http://www.doric.com/fileadmin/Doric...ic_press_release_38th_aircraft.pdf
204 mjoelnir : IMO the activation of the central tank in the A330-300 is inside of a hundred Kg. Were would you find 2 to 3 t for some pumps, piping and sealant/cor
205 frmrcapcadet : It is often said that minimum fleet size is 5(?) planes. But what if Doric were to lease out generic 380s, say 1 or 2 to several airlines, and keep th
206 KarelXWB : Doric said they will only need 3 or 4 customers to place the A380s. Think about a new customer who can use 6-10 frames, and an existing customer who
207 parapente : Re this 10 vs 11 seat question This illustrates how one can indeed gain cabin width by moving the floor up. Reply 122. However, it raises questions: -
208 frmrcapcadet : I am aware that this is what Doric is expecting to do. But am asking the question if airlines really only need 1 or 2, is it possible? This could nic
209 glbltrvlr : There's a certain amount of internal infrastructure needed to support a given aircraft type, even if it's just routine maintenance. It's hard to beli
210 KarelXWB : I think that's possible if an airline would really want it, but I don't see it happening. I mean, who would want to buy only 1 airframe?
211 tortugamon : I do wonder what is the smallest fleet size of any particular model that makes sense. That question may become relevant on the secondary market. I hav
212 Post contains links PW100 : According to Wiki, there are at least 10 operators, operating 5 or less 77W . . . True, some of them operate 772 or 77L alongside, but there are also
213 travelhound : Yes, but the A380 is a a different beast to a 777. At a guess if an airline wanted to fly a 777 into an airport they would have no problems with airp
214 7BOEING7 : I think as far as the 777 is concerned 4-5 is probably the minimum but your list is a bit inaccurate. 3x Aeroflot----- More on order 4x Aeromexico 5x
215 mjoelnir : That was the constant talk about the B 747 when she was new and than they started being use everywhere, even for hajj and holiday trips. If you want
216 trex8 : When the 747 came out there were many operators with only 1 or 2 planes. I remember reading SQ said some years back a fleet of 6-7 is adequate to be "
217 7BOEING7 : That was prestige for a country's flag carrier, "Look I got one too", definitely not to make $$$$. I don't think anybody will be able to do that with
218 art : Is there some kind of rule governing the minimum number of frames needed in a fleet before it becomes "efficient"? Does that number drop according to
219 mjoelnir : IMO all this "minimum fleet" is big airline talk, for small and mid sized airlines, if you need one or very few of a certain type, they have usually f
220 tortugamon : I wonder what small airline can successfully operate A380s or 747s. tortugamon
221 mjoelnir : Would you call Air Atlanta Icelandic a big airline? Go to Wikipedia open B 747 operators and have a look, than you do not have to wonder regarding th
222 art : An airline with contracts with several IT operators serving the same origin and destination airports with Y and Y+ seat configurations? I guess there
223 tortugamon : I would call them neither big nor an airline. Even on their website they refer to themselves as "the leading ACMI operator in the world with over 20
224 tortugamon : A fleet of 5 aircraft makes sense because you can operate two long distance routes and one spare for tech/short routes. You can buy a used 747 for ab
225 fcogafa : We'll soon find out with Skymarks small fleet
226 KarelXWB : Like TG, MH and OZ, Skymark has 6 A380s on order.
227 7BOEING7 : There are a lot of "second tier" customers that will pick up 2 or 3 of this and that but the larger the airplane the fewer of these customers exist --
228 Post contains links KarelXWB : Emirates is in talks with Airbus to purchase as many as 50 A380 superjumbos, people familiar with the negotiations said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news
229 tortugamon : Wow. Just wow. Speechless. tortugamon
230 Post contains images Scipio : Cool. So when will Airbus raise its A380 production rate to meet surging demand? If this deal materializes, Airbus would meet and exceed its sales ta
231 Post contains images KPDX : Another order would be excellent! That said, just name it the A380 EKliner.
232 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Oh well, there goes this thread....
233 tortugamon : I suspected that EK would hold a large order over Airbus' head in an effort to negotiate aircraft changes like a new engine. tortugamon
234 Post contains images KarelXWB : Lol It will be interesting to see if EK takes the remaining slots in 2015. If not, Airbus may still have to cut production. If the deal materializes,
235 WingedMigrator : Isn't that a negotiation that happens with an engine manufacturer, rather than Airbus? And the only plausible new option right now seems to be the Tr
236 mjoelnir : Usually you call a company were some other company can charter a airplane complete with a crew an airline. What is your definition of an airline? Onl
237 KarelXWB : Any new engine will have to be certified with the airframe, so this goes automatically hand in hand with the aircraft manufacturer. Maybe a new pylon
238 Scipio : If this Emirates deal and the Doric one get firmed up (and assuming that these are the only A380 sales this year), Airbus would finish 2013 with 329 A
239 tortugamon : I was under the assumption that DXB could handle approximately 90 A380s and they were trying to find a way to fit 30 more. Under that assumption I th
240 KarelXWB : While I have no idea who else could be ordering A380s this year, Airbus said to have "a few" sales campaigns running. A backlog of 184 would mean 6 y
241 Ruscoe : If EK order another 380 x 20, will they not be leased from Doric. Ruscoe
242 Scipio : Attentive observers may have noticed that Airbus executives, when discussing the possible need to adjust A380 production, did not consistently add th
243 KarelXWB : Ordering A380s today for post 2020 delivery doesn't make much sense IMO, knowing that Airbus will likely offer a new, improved A380 from 2020 onwards
244 mjoelnir : One would like to wait for the order of 50 A 380 before booking them, but in case this rumor becomes reality, would that mean a smaller order for B 77
245 7BOEING7 : Raising the main will add weight plus the cost of recertification, a PIP makes a lot more sense. If EAD were to order another 50 (that rumors been fl
246 Stitch : Unlikely as EK operates more 777-300ERs than they do A380-800s, so it stands to reason they will operate more 777-9s than A380-800s. So the more A380
247 flood : "As many as 50" typically implies a number of options so I'll venture to guess we'll be seeing an order for 30 + 20. Either way, it would be fantasti
248 mjoelnir : If Emirates is getting restricted in the number of aircraft movements the way out is going from big to biggest. That would mean fewer B777 and more A
249 SEPilot : The A380 enabled them to get their money back. Without it they may well have ordered A330F's instead of losing the deposits. No, it was Braniff. They
250 mjoelnir : The main problem in DXB seems to be the number of aircraft movements. Gates you can build, a third runway would be tough. In terminal 3, on concourse
251 7BOEING7 : Not true -- AB is losing money on every A380 it builds right now but are getting close (2015 @30) to making a profit on the cost to build each indivi
252 mjoelnir : I think it is true, they will lose less that way. First, what does it cost to close down the A380 line.The process to build A 380 takes about two yea
253 SEPilot : You do not disprove my point. I am saying that Airbus loses less money building the planes than they would by shutting down the line and refunding th
254 7BOEING7 : I agree, if you shutdown with orders remaining you will loose more money than if you continue building them until all the orders are filled. However,
255 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : It's done: http://twitter.com/ReutersAero/status/401990210029760513 We can now close this thread
256 bobdino : It's been four minutes since the last A380 order...
257 Post contains images Stitch : It was getting close to being closed for size, anyway, so that's convenient that we can just shut it down.
258 sassiciai : or rename it "Almost one day since last A380 order" LOL!
259 Post contains links SA7700 : As reports are now coming in that EK are ordering up to 50x additional A380's, this thread will now be locked. Dubai Air Show 2013 - Airbus Orders (by
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