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Almost One Year Since Last A380 Order Part 3  
User currently offlineiowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4433 posts, RR: 6
Posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 24509 times:
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Due to length of part two here is part three.

Previous thread: Almost One Year Since Last A380 Order Part 2 (by iowaman Sep 23 2013 in Civil Aviation)

259 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 24499 times:
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Quoting 2175301:

I tend to read a lot more than I post these days; but to me the real question is not is there an existing and future market for the A380; but can Airbus charge enough per plane to achieve a profit on assembly. Otherwise - there really is no reason to keep the production line open.

As for market: I have long held the belief that the A380's market was overhyped and smaller than originally stated. There are profitable routes; just not a lot of them.

My gut feeling is that the long term market is probably in the 15-20 planes per year; with 25 per year a stretch.

Airbus production facilities were based on a lot more than that (something like 40 per year); and it has oft been repeated that they need essentially 30 per year to achieve breakeven on assembly cost (based on the sales cost of the first several hundred planes).

I am not going to go back and count the number of projections for reaching break even on production cost. Currently it is 2015; but, I am skeptical based on past history. Until then - Airbus looses money on every plane they assemble (and no - maintenance and service contracts do not make up for that - no Mfr can stay in business if they cannot at least break even on the production cost of their primary product - demonstrably true in multiple industries - that also sell spare parts and service contracts).

It has been stated that once they reach break even in 2015 that magically somehow they will then be able to break-even with substantially fewer frames per year. As someone who has worked in and studied Manufacturing I have never seen such a thing. Incremental improvements yes - but somehow major changes: no.

Now Airbus can certainly charge more per A380 in the future to offset that; which affects the economics of the A380.

But, can Airbus and their long term potential customers come to an agreement on price that makes keeping the production line open for only 15-20 planes per year? That is the real question that I see.

With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Boeing probably has lost money on every 747-8 delivered and yet they keep holding out hope that the market (at least for cargo) will turn and make the program profitable. And as they're far less in the hole on the 747-8 than Airbus is on the A380-800.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 2, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 24287 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, Stitch - and, in addition, it's important to 'keep faith' with their customers. They still have about 150 orders outstanding. I don't suppose they'd be awfully upset if some of their customers switched their orders to the A350-1000 (or 1100) though; which could very well happen.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 3, posted (1 year 2 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 23991 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, to keep them is much more sensilbe to do, especially if the program will be around for at least another 25 years.  .

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 2):
I don't suppose they'd be awfully upset if some of their customers switched their orders to the A350-1000 (or 1100) though; which could very well happen.

Well, the likes of VS could go this route as nobody is really expecting them to take up on their order. So in that respect it is a win for Airbus if they would switch to the A350-1000.  .


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 1004 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (1 year 2 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 23934 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 3):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With the amount of money Airbus have spent on the facilities, I would guess it may be better for them to just continue to take losses from the program at sub-optimal production rates if they believe that the market will eventually rebound and support a profitable production rate.

Agreed, to keep them is much more sensilbe to do, especially if the program will be around for at least another 25 years.  .

I think an A380 refresh in the 2020's would coincide nicely with the change in market conditions towards VLA's. The money already lost on the program is lost, so moving forward the trick is how to obtain as much value as possible out of the A380 resources and infrastructure.


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (1 year 2 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 23806 times:

Interesting article in Aviation Week on Transaero, with three important pieces of news:

- Transaero seems to have every intention of taking up the 4 B748i's for which it signed an MoU in 2011, starting in 2015. Even though this MoU has still not been firmed up in Boeing's order book...
- After trying out the A380 (the first delivery of which will take place in 2014) and the B748i, it will decide on further fleet renewal. I read this as Transaero being a candidate for further A380 and/or B748i orders...
- It intends to deploy the A380 on mass tourism routes, and the B748i on premium routes.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....d_10_16_2013_p01-01-627228.xml&p=1


User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 23247 times:

And a little more related information from today's Aviation Daily:

- Boeing to reduce 747-8 production rate to 1.5 per month.
- Blames extended slowdown in cargo aircraft market, expects to recover in 2014
- Orderbook stands at 107, with 56 delivered.
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years
- Believes that 777X will impact forecast
-Remains committed to 747-8


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 7, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 23164 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years

Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Believes that 777X will impact forecast

And that, of course, points to even less than 38?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1085 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 23131 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

... and if half of that is freighters... That leaves a potential of 19 passenger planes per year.

Have a great day,


User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 23083 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
And that, of course, points to even less than 38?

Yep... Eating the bottom of the pyramid.


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 1004 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 23022 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year.............

... and if you take the 38 as the mean and use 3% growth in market you have 28 deliveries in 2013 and 48 deliveries in 2033.

The current rate of both A380 and 748i deliveries stands at 46 in 2013. Using Airbus forecast of 25 A380 deliveries per year and Boeings forecast of 18 748i deliveries per year, which I have again downgraded to 12 deliveries per year in 2016 we will have a fundamental oversupply of VLA's in the market up till 2021.

Of course this is totally prefaced on the market being linear and growing at 3% pa.

It could be the case demand for VLA's is higher at the start years of the forecast due to existing VLA's (747's) being retired and needing replacing. If this is the case, than once replacement of these aircraft has occurred demand for new build VLA's will drop off dramatically.

... but looking at who is currently operating 744's and who is purchasing A380's there seems to be a shift away from current VLA operators to new VLA operators.

So, from what I can see the forecast is based upon routes that require an A380 or 748i type aircraft and not who is currently operating the type.

If this is the case, than as a route grows it will reach an inflection point where an A380 or 748i type aircraft is needed resulting in sporadic demand for VLA's.

... or it could be the case airlines are holding off on purchasing VLA's until such time the number routes that require VLA's has reached a point where they can comfortably purchase a fleet of aircraft ensuring economy of scale economics.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 23020 times:
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Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year....

That more than enough deliveries to keep the A380 profitable on a production basis, so...


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 2 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 22900 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Sounds impressive - but that works out at only 38 a year....

That more than enough deliveries to keep the A380 profitable on a production basis, so...

No new A380 orders for about a year now. I don't see that it matters how many orders are received per 12 month peroid or per calendar year. More important to me is that orders over multi-year periods are sufficient to maintain production on a profitable basis. Assuming a production rate of 25 per annum there are sufficient "firm" firm orders (forgetting Virgin, Kingfisher etc) to maintain that rate for 5+ years. If orders for a further 50 are received over the next 5 years (a very conservative estimate, I believe) the line will be kept busy until 2020+.

It looks likely that EK will place substantial orders to start replacing its current A380's before then. SQ may re-order before then, too. Replacement orders from these 2 airlines alone would then keep the line busy until about 2024.

I wonder how much it would cost Airbus to do a MLU for delivery 2020 onwards.


User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1085 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 22588 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 6):
- Forecasts VLA market (747/380) at 760 over the next 20 years

I did a little digging about this number on the Boeing Forecast site:

Yes; Boeing does forecast the need for 760 new 748 & A380's over 20 years (Passenger and freight markets detail - Large Widebody: with only the 748 & A380 currently in this catagory); but if you look at the Large Freighter Market Forecast you will see that 640 of those are Freighters (with the 748 being the only current Freighter in this catagory - and I do not foresee any other Freighter entering this catagory). That leaves a forecast of 120 A380's for the next 20 years.

However, if you also look at the "Passenger Large Widebody" segment you will see an estimate of 610 new deliveries over 20 years. The two numbers do not make sense unless Boeing is assuming that some other plane will enter the "Passenger Large Widebody" segment - and get the lions share of the orders over the next 20 years.

Currently, Boeing list all the current A350 models (including A350-1000) and all current 777 models in the "Passenger Medium Widebody" segment; a segment that Boeing estimates will more than double in size over the next 20 years.

I hope that clarifies the estimate over the next 20 years.

Have a great day,


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 22483 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 13):

Those Boeing estimates are a bit of a mystery to me. Over the next 20 years they foresee sales of 760 x A380/B748 of which 640 freighters. They seem to think that demand for the A380/748i has almost disappeared.

It looks like they think that EK will not replace their A380's with A380's. How likely is that when EK say they would double the size of their A380 fleet if the infrastructure to support them existed at Dubai?


User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1085 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 22407 times:

Quoting art (Reply 14):
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 13):

Those Boeing estimates are a bit of a mystery to me. Over the next 20 years they foresee sales of 760 x A380/B748 of which 640 freighters. They seem to think that demand for the A380/748i has almost disappeared.

It looks like they think that EK will not replace their A380's with A380's. How likely is that when EK say they would double the size of their A380 fleet if the infrastructure to support them existed at Dubai?

And a little more digging indicates that Boeing believes the 777x will indeed replace most of the 748i & A380s. IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

Of course, Boeing still has to get the 777x off the ground; and Airlines will be able to get A380's quicker than 777x's at this time.

Have a great day.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 22342 times:

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 15):
IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

The 77X may indeed have better seat costs than EK's current A380s but their A380s represent more revenue and they need the traffic to feed their other routes at their increasingly strained airport. A gigantic airport full of 777X may indeed be more profitable but it is not realistic given airports constraints, saying nothing about the A380 improvements that will inevitably be coming down the pike. Also, customer feedback on EK A380s is said to be strong.

tortugamon


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 21871 times:

The Economic Times of India has a good article on A380 prospects, apparently coming from Reuters.

Highlights:

- Airbus will not produce white tails. If the remaining 2015 slots cannot be filled, it will rather cut production. However, some deliveries planned for later years may be brought forward to avoid a near-term production cut.
- Leahy remains confident of signing a number of deals before year-end, so as to end the year with a net positive change in the order book.
- The Doric order may be firmed up next month.
- Airbus may "review the situation and strategy" for the A380 at year-end, according to an anonymous industry source.
- Clark remains bullish on the A380 and confirms his interest in a stretched version, as a bigger plane would work quite nicely on most routes [presumably meaning current Emirates A380 routes].
- Doric's Lapidus also remains in the bullish camp. He reports that several airlines were going to take the A380 but didn't because of the global economic slowdown. He expects "significantly more orders" in the next 12 months, and expects the stretch to happen sooner or later, depending in part on how successful Doric will be in marketing the A380.
- Airbus is in no rush to change the A380's design, but it and some suppliers reportedly have started to "think" about what may be needed.


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...in-orders/articleshow/24614138.cms

In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/go...ibility-of-airbus-380-ops/1186092/

Finally, there is the trashy and factually challenged (production rate of "less than 17 per year"....) article in Time:

http://business.time.com/2013/10/23/...lds-fattest-most-expensive-turkey/

There is a separate thread on this last article, but I share the view of many others that we do not need a new thread for every (negative) press item on the A380's sales prospects.

[Edited 2013-10-23 10:30:34]

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 18, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 21813 times:
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Quoting 2175301 (Reply 15):
IF EK is offered a reasonably large capacity plane with better overall economics than the A380 - why would they buy a lot more A380's?

Good question. But they have reinforced their long-term commitment to the A380 whilst at the same time seemingly closing in on a large 777X order.

So are you suggesting something about the 777X's overall economics relative to the A380?
Or am I reading something that isn't there?  

Rgds


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 19, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21704 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
The Economic Times of India has a good article on A380 prospects, apparently coming from Reuters.

That's a good article, thanks for sharing.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus will not produce white tails. If the remaining 2015 slots cannot be filled, it will rather cut production. However, some deliveries planned for later years may be brought forward to avoid a near-term production cut.

Cutting production a bit (I believe we're talking about 2 open slots) is much cheaper than building white tails.

The 2015 slots must be taken up by an existing customer. If Doric takes them, they could place them with MH for example. I believe MH is looking at 2 more.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Leahy remains confident of signing a number of deals before year-end, so as to end the year with a net positive change in the order book.

The 2013 sales target is 25 gross units, he only need another 5 if Doric signs for 20 units.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- The Doric order may be firmed up next month.

That's the second article claiming it will be firmed next month.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus may "review the situation and strategy" for the A380 at year-end, according to an anonymous industry source.

What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Doric's Lapidus also remains in the bullish camp. He reports that several airlines were going to take the A380 but didn't because of the global economic slowdown. He expects "significantly more orders" in the next 12 months, and expects the stretch to happen sooner or later, depending in part on how successful Doric will be in marketing the A380.

The A380 is a big risk in a slow growing economic time. Clearly a lessor will take many of those risks away. If this construction works, we might see more orders in the future.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
- Airbus is in no rush to change the A380's design, but it and some suppliers reportedly have started to "think" about what may be needed.

I assume this means looking at ways to make the A380 more competitive around the end of the decade.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

Now Clark may rethink his 2-class A380 plans again.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
Finally, there is the trashy and factually challenged (production rate of "less than 17 per year"....) article in Time:

The production rate is higher (25 this year, 28 next year).



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21668 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

Airbus is currently writing a check with every A380 they deliver. Or said another way, they are receiving payment less than it costs to produce the aircraft delivered. No company can sustain that for any period of time.

My take is that if the order goal for 2013 isn't met and there is no confidence for 2014+, they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 21, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21625 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 20):
they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.

That would even cost more money. It's all about going forward, hence investments will be made in order to stay competitive. If the A380 doesn't receive any new orders in the next few years, than we will have another story.

[Edited 2013-10-23 11:46:06]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21568 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

I think this just means they will review and update the plan for the aircraft like they do with every product line before they give future guidance. I don't think this is anything out of the ordinary. I am sure they will look at their backlog and order interest and determine whether their production rate is sustainable and if there are alternate strategies to sell more, increase efficiency, or reduce production rate.

tortugamon


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21491 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
What does this mean, "situation and strategy"? Anyone?

I assume it means they are considering lowering the production rate, as Boeing has recently done with the 747-8.


Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 20):
My take is that if the order goal for 2013 isn't met and there is no confidence for 2014+, they will suspend A380 production and offer existing order positions incentives on other aircraft. It's also hard to see any serious engineering work being done on a refresh or stretch at this time.

My take is there is absolutely no chance of that happening.

[Edited 2013-10-23 12:28:18]

User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21492 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):

In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations:

Well THAT would be good news for the A 380 programme. The A 380 was designed for countries like China and India and yet so far there is not a single A 380-connection to India. 
Quoting art (Reply 12):

No new A380 orders for about a year now. I don't see that it matters how many orders are received per 12 month peroid or per calendar year. More important to me is that orders over multi-year periods are sufficient to maintain production on a profitable basis.

You are correct, it doesn't matter how much they sell in 12 months. Problem is, even when looking back two years it doesn't look much better. I don't have my old database at hand right now so I cannot provide the exact numbers but IIRC the average of the last years was less than 20 and that does include the Hong Kong order.

Well, let's hope sales will go up again and in a few years the typical A 380 will sing that old Led Zeppelin song while taxiing on the tarmac "Good times, bad times, you know I have had my share..."   ... and all the 747s on the tarmac will turn around and say with hoarse voice "yes, it was the same with me"


User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21842 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 24):
Well THAT would be good news for the A 380 programme. The A 380 was designed for countries like China and India and yet so far there is not a single A 380-connection to India.

Well there is a cap on total seats for EK, so if they fly a A380, they have to cut number of flights. There is no way to win. LH can use it, but not sure how well even 748 is doing with ~100 premium seats.


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 26, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 21680 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 24):
Well THAT would be good news for the A 380 programme. The A 380 was designed for countries like China and India and yet so far there is not a single A 380-connection to India. 

Some more on this:

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/Nv...irbus-A380-impact-on-airfares.html

Unsurprisingly, Air India is opposed...


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 27, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 22051 times:
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Quoting Scipio (Reply 26):
Unsurprisingly, Air India is opposed...

Air India would be opposed if they had A380s themselves, probably.  

[Edited 2013-10-23 14:47:39]

User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 28, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 21752 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 25):

Quoting Scipio (Reply 17):
In other news from India, the government is reported as looking into allowing A380 operations
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 24):
Well THAT would be good news for the A 380 programme. The A 380 was designed for countries like China and India and yet so far there is not a single A 380-connection to India.

Well there is a cap on total seats for EK, so if they fly a A380, they have to cut number of flights. There is no way to win.

But there must be a reason why they ask for permission to send the A 380 to India. Quote from the link Scipio provided above:

Quote:
Lufthansa, Emirates and Singapore Airlines are the three international carriers, who have shown interest in operating the jumbo aircraft into India.

The other link includes some interesting information (in opposite of all the personal opinions we often discuss)

Quote:
Clark told Reuters. "We have 37 in operation today, and on most routes a bigger plane would work quite nicely."

Waow, that's really amazing.


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 29, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 21713 times:

Rumours are starting to brew about a possible EK order at the Dubai Air Show next month...

There are talks of 777X (and lots of them), and an A380 top up order (possibly several dozens).

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 20):
Airbus is currently writing a check with every A380 they deliver. Or said another way, they are receiving payment less than it costs to produce the aircraft delivered.

Are you talking about cost of purchase vs. strict cost of production alone or including the amortization of the development cost?

The former would surprise me.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 21387 times:

It would be interesting if EK ordered 2 for delivery in 2015 as part of a modest expansion of their fleet. Any chance of that happening?

Regarding a large order from EK, I thought Clark said that while he would like more, Dubai can't handle more.

[Edited 2013-11-12 09:41:32 by SA7700]

User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 31, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 21340 times:

Quoting art (Reply 32):
It would be interesting if EK ordered 2 for delivery in 2015 as part of a modest expansion of their fleet. Any chance of that happening?

I would be surprised if the two openings in 2015 are not indicative of the more openings in 2016. Others will know better but I am not sure if selling just these two spots would dramatically change anything by anything more than a couple of months.

tortugamon


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 32, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 21347 times:

Quoting art (Reply 32):
Any chance of that happening?

Clark is always complaining about being short of airframes, there must be other reasons why he can't take those 2 slots.

Quoting art (Reply 32):
Dubai can't handle more.

They are studying multiple options to resolve this issue.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineBaconButty From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2013, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 33, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 21051 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 25):
Well there is a cap on total seats for EK, so if they fly a A380, they have to cut number of flights.

EK is, as you say, capped at 54000. However, they use the A380 to extract a premium per seat, so may view the aircraft as a way to grow revenues in spite of the constraint.
Emirates are not the only middle eastern A380 operator serving India though. The Abu Dhabi bilateral has recently tripled the number of seats (with no increase in the 11? allowable destinations) up to about 45000, or 90000 if you include the Indian (i.e.Jet) side. If the restriction on A380's is removed, expect the Etihad order to increase from its current 10, and possibly a Jet order in the medium term.



You could do with some brown sauce on that.
User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 20801 times:

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 36):
EK is, as you say, capped at 54000. However, they use the A380 to extract a premium per seat, so may view the aircraft as a way to grow revenues in spite of the constraint

There is no nationwide 54,000 number. Each station has a weekly seat restriction.

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 36):

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 25):
Well there is a cap on total seats for EK, so if they fly a A380, they have to cut number of flights.

EK is, as you say, capped at 54000. However, they use the A380 to extract a premium per seat, so may view the aircraft as a way to grow revenues in spite of the constraint.
Emirates are not the only middle eastern A380 operator serving India though. The Abu Dhabi bilateral has recently tripled the number of seats (with no increase in the 11? allowable destinations) up to about 45000, or 90000 if you include the Indian (i.e.Jet) side. If the restriction on A380's is removed, expect the Etihad order to increase from its current 10, and possibly a Jet order in the medium term.

All Indian bilaterals are rigged to prevent any creative practices, including use of a VLA when it is allowed.

EK-54000/EY-45000/9W-45000 numbers are just crude sums of entire bilateral deal. There are multiple layers of restrictions.

There are caps on seats and frequencies to each Indian city. It is not a blanket number for EY throughout the country. It is not that easy for EY to buy A380s for 9W.


User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 35, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 20797 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 29):
Are you talking about cost of purchase vs. strict cost of production alone or including the amortization of the development cost?

Amortization of development costs is off the table. Those costs are sunk and will never be recovered if you take into account the time value of money. Airbus has stated that they hoped to be revenue positive on production costs next year, but that was predicated on production levels of around 30 aircraft per year. Now that they are starting to look at reduced production levels, it becomes even harder to reach positive cash flow.


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 36, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 20704 times:

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 38):
Amortization of development costs is off the table. Those costs are sunk and will never be recovered if you take into account the time value of money. Airbus has stated that they hoped to be revenue positive on production costs next year, but that was predicated on production levels of around 30 aircraft per year. Now that they are starting to look at reduced production levels, it becomes even harder to reach positive cash flow.

As you say, the dev costs are gone and spent and we're talking about cash flow position. It can't really be told whether that point has been reached until accounts are published for the year and studied but 2015 was the position for years for break-even. There have been plenty of improvements in the process recently - witness how quickly EK birds go through the cabin fitting and painting now in Hamburg.

It must be said though that Airbus isn't carrying on building A380s because it's stubborn or embarrassed about backing down If the cost of closing the programme and refunding deposits etc was less than the money they are losing on production then they would do that so even if they're not making a profit they're losing the least money possible on these planes as they go out of the door.


User currently offlineBaconButty From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2013, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 20617 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 37):
There is no nationwide 54,000 number. Each station has a weekly seat restriction.

I've read the bilateral (with Dubai) and I'm fully aware of this (though by definition, the sum of all the stations is a national figure, if we're playing silly buggers). I'm not sure what you're trying to say though - did the Indians use soothsayers to predict the seat counts of their 773ER's and cunningly set the station limits to an exact multiple? Is Tim Clark mad to be pressing to use the A380 - and any moment could check the bilateral and cry in anguish "If only I'd listened to a.net!"? The limits to the smaller markets (Kolkata for example) are clearly too low for an A380, but there's enough flexibility in the limits for Delhi and Mumbai.

Anyhow, EK aren't set to be the big winner in the current round of liberalization. It's Etihad, and particularly in relation to their stake in Jet airways. But either way, if you can't see that India (potentially) lifting the bar on VLA's could improve the prospects of said aircraft, I can't help you.



You could do with some brown sauce on that.
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 38, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 20576 times:
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Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 38):
Airbus has stated that they hoped to be revenue positive on production costs next year, but that was predicated on production levels of around 30 aircraft per year

I don't believe this is strictly accurate. As far as I'm aware Airbus never explicitly linked break-even on production costs to delivering 30 frames.
They said they intended to deliver 30 frames AND expected to reach B/E
That's not quite the same.
However

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 38):
Now that they are starting to look at reduced production levels, it becomes even harder to reach positive cash flow.

This is undoubtedly true. It will be harder to reach break even if they deliver 28 instead of 30.
Doesn't mean they won't though

Rgds


User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 20545 times:

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 40):
did the Indians use soothsayers to predict the seat counts of their 773ER's and cunningly set the station limits to an exact multiple?

It is exactly that. In case of EK, most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100.

EY/9W will have access to 23 stations, but EY is restricted to very few and one Daily to major hubs with class F airports. It is near impossible to use A380 even if India lifts equipment restrictions.

Read the fine print.

"Its believed the Indian government is considering the relaxation of bilateral per flight size limitation which would allow A380 model so long as total market seat capacity allowances in bilateral agreements still remained in force."

[Edited 2013-10-24 10:51:37]

User currently offlineBaconButty From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2013, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 20417 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 42):
It is exactly that. In case of EK, most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100.

Yes but not at the hubs. As I stated but you deliberately ignored. Anyway, you'd better get on to Tim Clark, because the old fool is clearly deluded.



You could do with some brown sauce on that.
User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 20411 times:

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 43):
Yes but not at the hubs. As I stated but you deliberately ignored. Anyway, you'd better get on to Tim Clark, because the old fool is clearly deluded.

What do you mean not at the hubs, Delhi - 8000 seats/Weekly, Mumbai - 4500 seats/Weekly. It will be 2 daily flights to Delhi and 1 daily flight to Mumbai. Whichever way you slice it, there is no way to flood the market like EK did in South Africa and else where driving out the competition.

EK actually loses 1000 seats/week to Delhi and 1000 seats/week to Mumbai if it just want to use A380.



[Edited 2013-10-24 12:05:18]

User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 20303 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 41):
I don't believe this is strictly accurate. As far as I'm aware Airbus never explicitly linked break-even on production costs to delivering 30 frames. They said they intended to deliver 30 frames AND expected to reach B/E That's not quite the same.

True - agreed.


User currently offlineBaconButty From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2013, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 20201 times:

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 44):
What do you mean not at the hubs, Delhi - 8000 seats/Weekly, Mumbai - 4500 seats/Weekly.

I'll try to make this simple:
You said "most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100."
I said "Yes but not at the hubs. " And I was right.
It's not exactly the trickiest exercise in english language comprehension.

And FWIW Emirates traffic to Mumbai and Delhi in 2011/12 was 949K and 707K respectively. Or 18+K / week in Mumbai. The load factor is 84% so that implies 21K limit - or rather half that assuming it's one way vs return.
http://content.emirates.com/is/engli...es/Report_Final2_tcm327-970591.pdf - see P20

I've checked the bilateral I have read before and I think it's old - 2007 and it has 29.1K as the total limit whereas the current bilateral was signed in 2008 and has 54.2K as the total limit. The respective limits were similar to yours, 7.3K Mumbai 4.6K Delhi. Given Emirates have four daily frequencies (1 A330, 2 772 and a 77W on the day I looked) to Delhi, they'd blow that limit right out of the water, so they've clearly increased. And I can't find any mention of upper of lower limits on frequencies, save for a statement that "best efforts" will be made to up gauge the Mumbai route, rather than add frequency.
http://dgca.nic.in/bilateral/uae0507.pdf

I imagine this is getting extremely boring for everyone else, and I can't be doing with word games, so I'll leave it there. But if anyone has any detail on the 2013 Abu Dhabi bilateral, or a copy of the updated 2008 Dubai bilateral I'd love to see it.



You could do with some brown sauce on that.
User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 20136 times:

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 46):
I'll try to make this simple:
You said "most stations have weekly seat limit set at ~2100."
I said "Yes but not at the hubs. " And I was right.
It's not exactly the trickiest exercise in english language comprehension.

Its a math problem. EK doesn't operate all flights all days. AFAIK 29000/week/each way still valid. Let's leave at that.


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 1004 posts, RR: 12
Reply 45, posted (1 year 1 month 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 20004 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 39):
As you say, the dev costs are gone and spent and we're talking about cash flow position.

There is a little more to this than just profits or cash flows.

If we look at Airbus’s sales and deliveries to date from a pure investment perspective I think it is fair to argue the program hasn't been the best. I think some of the comments recently made by Airbus themselves shows they also acknowledge this.

.... but, if (two if's and one but and anything is possible) in 3 / 5 / 10 year’s time the natural market for the airplane gets to a level where production can be maintained at a cash flow and profitable basis than the value of the program today is not about gross margins and cash flows, but about maintaining the facilities, including the managers, engineering personnel, administrative workers and factory floor staff so that when the shift in market does happen Airbus can take full advantage.

So from this perspective, today the value of the manufacturing facilities and the A380 intellectual property has to be considered just as important as profits and cash flows.

Considering it probably took Airbus ten plus years just to get the first A380 out of the door, I am not sure they would want to do anything that diminishes the value of the A380 assets.


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 46, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 19624 times:

The FT is reporting today that Emirates is considering placing orders for A380s and A350s at the upcoming Dubai show. Orders for the Airbus models might be placed alongside an expected record order with Boeing for 100 B777X's. However, Emirates stresses that no agreements have been finalized yet with either manufacturer.

As to the A350, Emirates is reportedly also looking at changing the mix of its current orders, toward more A350-1000's.


User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12885 posts, RR: 46
Reply 47, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 19493 times:
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Quoting Scipio (Reply 49):
Emirates is considering placing orders for A380s

I've been of the view for some time that EK would order additional A380s this year. Additional A350s would be more of a surprise.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 49):
As to the A350, Emirates is reportedly also looking at changing the mix of its current orders, toward more A350-1000's.

I've always believed that the 787 was too small for EK and that the A350 would be their smallest plane, but I must admit I fully expected it to be the -900. Is it now going to be the -1000?   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana! #44cHAMpion
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 48, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 19480 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 49):
The FT is reporting today that Emirates is considering placing orders for A380s and A350s at the upcoming Dubai show.

To quote the FT article:

"Mr Clark said Emirates, which has placed orders for 90 A380s so far, has a longstanding interest in buying another 20 superjumbos.

However, he stressed any additional order for the A380 was partly dependent on Emirates having sufficient room for them at its existing base at Dubai International airport or Dubai World Central, the new hub that the emirate is developing."

It sounds to me like (a) a desire to expand the A380 fleet is established (b) actually being able to place an order is subject to having the infrastructure needed for the extra aircraft. Question to me is: when is the required infrastructure due to come on line? If it is scheduled within the next 3-5 years, what stops EK ordering more A380's for delivery 3-5+ years from now?

I won't be too surprised if EK orders more A380's at the show.

Should EK and Doric place firm orders for 30-40 at the show, will current perceptions of the A380 sales program being dead in the water change to it being a program that is steaming ahead nicely?


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 49, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 19471 times:

Emirates has said they don't have a need for anything smaller than 340 seats. A switch to the 1000 is not a surprise.

tortugamon


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 50, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 19264 times:
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Quoting scbriml (Reply 50):
I've always believed that the 787 was too small for EK and that the A350 would be their smallest plane, but I must admit I fully expected it to be the -900. Is it now going to be the -1000?     

Tim Clark has in the past noted he feels the A350-1000 is more a "super 777-200ER" than a true 777-300ER replacement for his needs, though Airbus have worked with them to increase the seat count (in an EK configuration) from 317 to 340 through a new galley configuration. TC has also noted he feels 300 seats is the minimum usable seat count in the fleet and the A350-900 seats 274 in an EK configuration per Tim Clark in August 2011.

Personally, I could see EK settling on tour models: A350-1000, 777-8, 777-9 and A380-800.


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 51, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 19071 times:
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Quoting scbriml (Reply 50):
I've always believed that the 787 was too small for EK and that the A350 would be their smallest plane, but I must admit I fully expected it to be the -900. Is it now going to be the -1000?

Which is only logical seeing the upward trend of airliners getting bigger and bigger on average. And the A350-1000 is gaining more and more momentum as time passes.  .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
ersonally, I could see EK settling on tour models: A350-1000, 777-8, 777-9 and A380-800.

Me too. Although I see room for an A380-900 as well.   


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 52, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 18967 times:
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Quoting art (Reply 51):
Should EK and Doric place firm orders for 30-40 at the show, will current perceptions of the A380 sales program being dead in the water change to it being a program that is steaming ahead nicely?

Seriously?
IMO, whatever happens, that perception is never going to either gain traction, or be accepted. Not on A-net   

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 52):
Emirates has said they don't have a need for anything smaller than 340 seats. A switch to the 1000 is not a surprise

Nope. not surprising. But amusing, given their vocalisation around the A350-1000 weight growth  

Rgds


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 53, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 18813 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 52):
Emirates has said they don't have a need for anything smaller than 340 seats. A switch to the 1000 is not a surprise.

Emirates has 2-class aircraft in the fleet and an A359 can hold more than 340 seats in this configuration.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 55):
Nope. not surprising. But amusing, given their vocalisation around the A350-1000 weight growth

A maybe bigger issue was having 2 different engine types; this should be resolved by switching everything to the larger -1000. Per Clark in 2011:

Quote:
"I had 70 aircraft with the same engine. I don't have that any more," he said.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 54, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 18761 times:

Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/china-southe...ises-better-meals-more-aussie-crew

Quote:
To accommodate that growth, while keeping a lid on fuel costs, Tan said he is open to considering more Airbus A380s and Boeing 787s, and would even not rule out the possibility of Airbus A350s joining the fleet.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 55, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 18626 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s.

Guess they have convinced CAAC to give them slots at PEK?


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 56, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 18483 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s.

Now we just need Thai to join the club of those who want more  

Reading that article, I was surprised how big China Southern is and how fast it is growing. Wikipedia even claims it is Asia's largest airline in terms of fleet size and passengers carried.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Southern_Airlines

However, CZ's order book doesn't seem to match the statements and ambitions of its CEO. He is quoted as saying they are adding 50 aircraft per year to their fleet, but as far as I can figure out, CZ only has 67 frames on order: 28 from Airbus, 19 from Boeing, and 20 from COMAC. The COMAC ones are certainly not going to be delivered in the next year...

Seems like they are overdue for some new orders...

Btw, nice compliment from him for both the A380 and the B787: "After some time operating the A380 and Boeing 787 we have realised that these ‘evolved aircraft’ are game changers.”


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 57, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 18266 times:
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Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
Btw, nice compliment from him for both the A380 and the B787: "After some time operating the A380 and Boeing 787 we have realised that these ‘evolved aircraft’ are game changers.”

That is nice and another confirmation of the qualities the A380 (and on a different level) the B787 have. But to order some more A380's would be even more nice.  


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 58, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 18217 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/china-southe...ises-better-meals-more-aussie-crew

Quote:
To accommodate that growth, while keeping a lid on fuel costs, Tan said he is open to considering more Airbus A380s and Boeing 787s, and would even not rule out the possibility of Airbus A350s joining the fleet.

Funny, I am just sitting in CZ's lounge in PEK and while opening a.net I was looking on their rendering of the A 380 and was thinknig to myself "uh, it doesn't look right". Then I read your posting.

Well, if China cannot support more A 380s then I don't know. While landing in PEK and watching the planes taking off below I was wondering if this is actually an airport or rather a machine gun, shooting out little B 737s and A 320s every half a minute...

And just for the records. I started the original thread in September IIRC. Right now it's even "more than one year since last A 380 order" since the last one is dated October 25th 2012. Just saying.


User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 59, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 18130 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 61):
Right now it's even "more than one year since last A 380 order" since the last one is dated October 25th 2012. Just saying.

For myself, I think that there will certainly be SOME more orders for the A380 - and even some for the 748, especially the freighter.

But, IMO, nothing LIKE as many as there are going to be for the 779X. 450 seats over inter-continental ranges with only two engines looks to be an overwhelming 'unique selling proposition' to me?

[Edited 2013-10-29 03:52:58]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10817 posts, RR: 9
Reply 60, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 18116 times:

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 62):
But, IMO, nothing LIKE as many as there are going to be for the 779X. 450 seats over trans-continental ranges with only two engines looks to be an overwhelming 'unique selling proposition' to me?

Who knows, its 10 years until we´ll know. Could also be that the 777-9X is drowned between the A350-1000 and the A380, or at least, limited in its longterm prospect.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 61, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 18096 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 50):
Additional A350s would be more of a surprise.

Mr Baker confirmed there will be an A350 order at the Dubai air show.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...atar-airways-idUSBRE99S0G020131029

[Edited 2013-10-29 04:01:56]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 62, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 18052 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 57):
Believe it or not, but China Southern is considering to buy more A380s.

With 6 x A380 the cost per frame of running such a small sub-fleet of the type must be quite high. If CZ has found a way to harness the qualities of the A380 to its advantage - and sees itself being able to do the same with more - extra frames would make each A380 cheaper to operate overall. Sounds like a win twice over situation to me.

Question is: how many more could they put to good use?


User currently offlinefcogafa From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 884 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 18027 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 64):
Mr Baker confirmed there will be an A350 order at the Dubai air show.

I don't think the article says that, it says:

======================
Qatar Airway's al-Baker said the airline would place another plane order during the Dubai Airshow next month, billed one of the largest industry events in the region.

"I won't tell you what the order is, but there will be one," he said.
======================


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 64, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17970 times:

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 66):
I don't think the article says that, it says:

======================
Qatar Airway's al-Baker said the airline would place another plane order during the Dubai Airshow next month, billed one of the largest industry events in the region.

"I won't tell you what the order is, but there will be one," he said.
======================

I agree. I read the article three times thinking it was saying that they were going to order the A350 but it just does not say that. However, if they are making an order and as the 777x seems out of the running, its about a 50% chance it will indeed be an A350 order though. There was talk about them exercising their 30 787-9 options in the spring and I don't think they will order more A380s until they have operated a couple of their current order. There is a fair likely hood that he will change his mind on this too so maybe the percentage is a little lower  

tortugamon


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 65, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17953 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
However, CZ's order book doesn't seem to match the statements and ambitions of its CEO. He is quoted as saying they are adding 50 aircraft per year to their fleet, but as far as I can figure out, CZ only has 67 frames on order

In China orders come through the central aviation purchasing department and then issued to airlines. For example, China has bought about 400 Max and NEO's but I don't think we know the airlines that these will be going to quite yet (although the airline and the authorities are aware).

tortugamon


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 66, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17946 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 67):
I don't think they will order more A380s until they have operated a couple of their current order. There is a fair likely hood that he will change his mind on this too so maybe the percentage is a little lower

I think the percentage is a lot lower. Last line of the reuters article:

"He added the carrier would not buy anymore Airbus A380 aircraft, adding it has 13 jets on order the first of which would be delivered in April."


User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 67, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17932 times:

Quoting na (Reply 63):
Who knows, its 10 years until we´ll know.

Have to disagree, na. But only to the extent that we'll probably have a pretty good idea of which way the wind is blowing, as far as the B779 is concerned, after Dubai?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 68, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 17916 times:
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Quoting Nav20 (Reply 62):
But, IMO, nothing LIKE as many as there are going to be for the 779X. 450 seats over inter-continental ranges with only two engines looks to be an overwhelming 'unique selling proposition' to me?

Is there also going to be an 80m+ B777-10X?   .

Because, as you (should) know since it has been pointed out countless times already, the B777-9 will hold 406 seats. Please stay with the facts Nav20, your imagination is bigger then the reality I guess?  

And again, the statement has no bearing on the A380 sales whatsoever.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 69, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17869 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
Seems like they are overdue for some new orders...

Indeed, although China singed a MoU for 18 more A330 aircraft, which CZ can get access to.

Quoting art (Reply 69):
"He added the carrier would not buy anymore Airbus A380 aircraft, adding it has 13 jets on order the first of which would be delivered in April."

They have 10 on firm order and 3 options. I assume they'll take the last 3 options somewhere in the future.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 70, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17864 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 71):
Because, as you (should) know since it has been pointed out countless times already, the B777-9 will hold 406 seats.

Please (belatedly) note that I said 'up to,' mate?  
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 71):
And again, the statement has no bearing on the A380 sales whatsoever.

We're largely in agreement there - since there simply haven't been any A380 sales for a year. Don't know what you're sore about anyway - given that my last statement on the subject was:-

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 62):
For myself, I think that there will certainly be SOME more orders for the A380



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 71, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17839 times:
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Quoting Nav20 (Reply 73):
Please (belatedly) note that I said 'up to,' mate?  

Yes, but the current B77W already does that easily if the fitting all economy interior would be selected. The current B77W will probably hold up to 500 people in such configurations. Yet we do not call the B77W an up to 500 passenger twin, or do we? And we are also not referring to the 850+ seat count which an A380 can hold if desired.

So please, let's stay with the numbers for a general 3 class layout. That way we can keep the discussion based on equally outfitted interiors when it comes to the average percentages First, Business, Economy+ and Economy seats the average airliner can hold.  

[Edited 2013-10-29 05:04:36]

User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 72, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17811 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 71):
Is there also going to be an 80m+ B777-10X?

I think it is unlikely unless the 777-9 sells extremely well or if A380 sales start to pick up. There is talk of pushing the 779x to 8,400nm so a simple stretch should still give it substantial range and would not need a new wing or a new engine. A need for MLG adjustments for rotation angle and airports having to come to grips with ~82m long aircraft are obvious hurdles.

During the PAS, reporters asked Scott Fancher (VP of Airplane Development) about a possible -10x and gave a conspicuous 'no comment'.

The average A380 route is 4knm and the average EK A380 route is closer to 3knm so a 450+-seat 3 class twin with 7knm range may be useful for some operators.

Personally, I just don't think there is a sizable market for a 'regional' large twin.

Quoting art (Reply 69):
I think the percentage is a lot lower.

Higher? If the A380 is out of the picture (and I agree with you) then it raises the likelihood of an A350 purchase, no? Or do you think its fairly likely that it will indeed be 787s (I do).

tortugamon


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 73, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17826 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
Tim Clark has in the past noted he feels the A350-1000 is more a "super 777-200ER" than a true 777-300ER replacement for his needs, though Airbus have worked with them to increase the seat count (in an EK configuration) from 317 to 340 through a new galley configuration

That was also before the MTOW went up 10 tonnes, and the range by 400nm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 62):
But, IMO, nothing LIKE as many as there are going to be for the 779X. 450 seats over inter-continental ranges with only two engines looks to be an overwhelming 'unique selling proposition' to me?

So "unique" that it doesn't actually exist, nor will it when the 777-9X flies   

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 73):
Please (belatedly) note that I said 'up to,' mate?

Where?

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 61):
And just for the records. I started the original thread in September IIRC. Right now it's even "more than one year since last A 380 order" since the last one is dated October 25th 2012. Just saying

It's just as well we never started the "It's been over 4 years since the 787 landed a net new order" thread between 2008 and 2012. And I'm glad we didn't, by the way.

IMO pointing out an obvious situation that is equally obviously not going to last does little more than open opportunities up for the (numerous) A380 trolls. Just my opinion, though.
It's a free forum and I respect that.

rgds


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 74, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 17833 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 74):
Yes, but the current B77W already does that easily if the fitting all economy interior would be selected. The current B77W will probably hold up to 500 people in such configurations.

JAL and ANA have 773s that fit 500 and 514 in two class configuration. However, I agree with your overall point.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 76):
"It's been over 4 years since the 787 landed a net new order"

And if the 787 was trying to sell slots that were two years away it would be even more notable  

I agree that this thread topic is not geared toward constructive conversation.

tortugamon


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 75, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 17813 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 77):
JAL and ANA have 773s that fit 500 and 514 in two class configuration.

So the B77W is already a +500 seater and that is even with a two class layout. Makes my point even stronger.  .

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 77):
However, I agree with your overall point.

Thank you.  .

[Edited 2013-10-29 05:46:59]

User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 76, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 17645 times:

Very interesting that you use the expression 'hate,' friend.

Do you see all this as some sort of 'religious conflict' - as opposed to which of the major firms can design, build, and sell the models that suit the current market best, year by year?

Looks as if Boeing has the lead for the moment. But it may not last long...........?

[Edited 2013-11-12 09:46:08 by SA7700]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 77, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 17156 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 76):
IMO pointing out an obvious situation that is equally obviously not going to last does little more than open opportunities up for the (numerous) A380 trolls. Just my opinion, though.
It's a free forum and I respect that.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 77):
I agree that this thread topic is not geared toward constructive conversation.

Hmmm, I have the feeling there is a missunderstanding about my intentions.

If you read the question in the first part you can see that I just used the occasion, that one year had passed without any order, to speculate (or maybe to get even new information, sometimes it happens) about future orders.

Quote:
If I remember correctly the last firm order for the A 380 is from October 2012, almost one year ago (SQ converting five options into firm orders).

It feel like ages!!!

There is still an announcement for two additional LH-airframes which has not yet been firmed (correct me if I am wrong) but I wouldn't call this a significant order.

And yes, there is still this Doric-MoU but I think they will only make firm orders once they made the corresponding deal with the respective airline.

So what is your opinion: when (or if for certain a.netters) will we see the next firm order and by whom?

Of course I knew this would attract trolls. But do we now refrain from starting a thread once there is the slightest chance that there will be trolls?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 78, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 17064 times:
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I would expect Boeing is pitching the 777-8 at 9-abreast 777-300ER customers as it offers significantly better payload weight at design range than the 777-300ER with much better efficiency. You can also match a 9-abreast 777-300ER in capacity by moving to 10-abreast while still getting better payload weight and efficiency.

I expect the 777-9 is being aimed at 10-abreast 777-300ER customers because it offers a bit more capacity (for growth) with much better efficiency. It's too close to the A350-1000 in capacity at 9-abreast to be competitive, IMO. That requires 79-80m.

I expect the reason Boeing uses such outdated configurations is that it provides consistency across models for reference purposes. That way the larger 747-8 has more seats than the smaller 747-400 even if no 747-8 operator would use the same seats that were available when the 747-400 launched.

Boeing's ACAP for the 787-8 in 2007 and 2011 did use a more modern seating configuration, with suites in First Class and greater pitch in Business Class, resulting in 187 seats vs. 224 seats using the "historical" configuration.

Airbus used to also favor smaller premium cabins and larger Economy cabins to make the A330 and A340 closer in overall capacity to the 777.

[Edited 2013-11-12 09:55:00 by SA7700]

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 79, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 16928 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 93):
I expect the reason Boeing uses such outdated configurations is that it provides consistency across models for reference purposes. That way the larger 747-8 has more seats than the smaller 747-400 even if no 747-8 operator would use the same seats that were available when the 747-400 launched.

I can understand why they do it. That said, we don't live in the Stone Age anymore, it's time for an update.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 93):
Airbus used to also favor smaller premium cabins and larger Economy cabins to make the A330 and A340 closer in overall capacity to the 777.

That's true, but they broke the tradition with the A380 and later the A350. Have a look:

> A340-600: 380 seats in a default 3-class configuration
> A350-1000: 350 seats in a default 3-class configuration

Yet the A350-1000 will have more seats than the A340-600 in a realistic airline cabin configuration.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 80, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 16866 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 67):
I don't think they will order more A380s until they have operated a couple of their current order.

From the same interview:

Quote:
[Al-Baker] added the carrier would not buy anymore Airbus A380 aircraft, adding it has 13 jets on order the first of which would be delivered in April.


User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1152 posts, RR: 3
Reply 81, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 16794 times:
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Airbus's biggest competitor to the A380 is it's own A350, which will come in various size models. Airlines are waiting for the A350 to come on line. The selling or leasing of used A380s may be harder than selling or giving sand to the Saudis.
Used A380s may suffer the same fate as Frontier's A318s.   



Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 82, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 16777 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 94):
I can understand why they do it. That said, we don't live in the Stone Age anymore, it's time for an update.

Honestly, I'm not sure how relevant the ACAP configurations are, anyway, considering the variety of seating and classes of service airlines employ.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 83, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 16773 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 97):
Honestly, I'm not sure how relevant the ACAP configurations are, anyway, considering the variety of seating and classes of service airlines employ.

You're right.

It would only make discussions on this forum easier, but that's not something the aircraft manufacturers are worried about  

[Edited 2013-10-29 13:37:13]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 84, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 16813 times:

Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...s-airbus-ceo-idUSBRE99S19T20131029

In contrast to John Leahy, Bregier only makes such statements when he's sure about the case.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineglbltrvlr From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 85, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 16679 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...s-airbus-ceo-idUSBRE99S19T20131029

Very interesting article. A couple of other key points:

- "A380 program will have a stretched version, maybe in 10 or 15 years from now"
- "The target of reaching breakeven on the program in 2015 is based on that rate (30)"


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 86, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 16557 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
though Airbus have worked with them to increase the seat count (in an EK configuration) from 317 to 340 through a new galley configuration.

Do you have any more information about this new galley configuration? Will it also apply to the A350-900? And where is this 340 seat figure coming from, from EK themselves? I remember the 317 seat figure in an EK configuration, 340 sounds like a nice increase.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 87, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 16625 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):
In contrast to John Leahy, Bregier only makes such statements when he's sure about the case.

I expect Bregier can only make that statement because John Leahey has told him he has secured the sales.  
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 101):
Do you have any more information about this new galley configuration?


I do not (see below for why).

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 101):
Will it also apply to the A350-900?

I do not know. It was only mentioned in relation to the A350-1000.



Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 101):
And where is this 340 seat figure coming from, from EK themselves?

Yes. Tim Clark mentioned it in August 2011.



Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 101):
I remember the 317 seat figure in an EK configuration, 340 sounds like a nice increase.

Yes, the 317 was what EK VP-Route and Fleet Planning Richard Jewsbury noted would fit back in March 2008.

And it is a nice increase as it shrinks the gap to the 777-300ER from 37 to only 14.


User currently offlinefcogafa From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 884 posts, RR: 0
Reply 88, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 16574 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):

Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

So is that 20 for Doric and 5 for Emirates?


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26005 posts, RR: 22
Reply 89, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 16522 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 90):
As far as I'm aware, the 748i has a cabin area of c. 420m2 and the 777-9X about 350m2 (the 777w being about 330m2 and the A380 about 552m2).

What source do you use for that type of data? I've always had difficulty finding cabin area numbers.


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 90, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 16498 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 92):
Boeing simply uses more unrealistic cabin configurations. Per Aspire Aviation:

Quote:
Airbus’ standard 3-class configuration more accurately reflects the dynamics in today’s global airline industry in assuming a 60 inches seat pitch for business class seats whereas Boeing assumes a 39 inches seat pitch for business class seats and a 61-inch seat pitch for first class seats in its calculation, while both aircraft manufacturers assume a 32-inch seat pitch for economy seats. Aspire Aviation believes this makes the 407 3-class seat count for the 777-9X somewhat high while the Airbus’ 385-seat assumption on the 777-9X slightly low. A middle ground around 395 seats in a 3-class configuration therefore seems more suitable when evaluating the economic performance of these aircraft, as higher seat counts can significantly distort the per-seat comparison between them, as could stage length.

Very interesting comments from Aspire. So 395 seats is the more realistic number which puts another (but better) perspective on the offerings to the airlines when it comes to comparing the A350 with the B777-X. it also changes the same perception when looking at the B777-X vs. the A380. Especially on CASM and RASM.  .

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 100):

- "A380 program will have a stretched version, maybe in 10 or 15 years from now"
- "The target of reaching breakeven on the program in 2015 is based on that rate (30)"

So now the CEO is openly talking about a stretched A380. It is only a matter of time, and 10 years will put the EIS just slightly behind the B777-X which will most likely be sold out quickly for the timeframe between 2020 and 2025. Which gives the A380-900 (and/or an A380-1000    ) all the room she might need.  .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 102):
I expect Bregier can only make that statement because John Leahey has told him he has secured the sales.  

I guess you are fully correct with this statement.


User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 2281 posts, RR: 0
Reply 91, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 16483 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):
Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

So, who is in-charge here, Tom Enders, Fabrice Bregier and John Leahy are saying slightly different versions about the program. Enders said they will make A380 attractive to customers. Don't know what it means.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 92, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 16472 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 105):

The seating numbers mentioned by Aspire will not be news to airlines as they make their own calculations based on their own configurations. It does not change perceptions.

tortugamon


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 93, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 16375 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 107):
The seating numbers mentioned by Aspire will not be news to airlines as they make their own calculations based on their own configurations. It does not change perceptions.

tortugamon

That may be, but it would be still nice to discuss with realistic comparable numbers.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 94, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 16358 times:

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 108):

And it would be nice to have consistent methodology as well. Unfortunately neither OEM does both.

tortugamon


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 95, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 16276 times:
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Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 100):
"The target of reaching breakeven on the program in 2015 is based on that rate (30)"

Noticed that, and it's the first time I've seen the two linked.
Mind you, he also said that a rate of 25 made break-even harder to reach, but in a manner that was still marginal.
As the delay penalties and wing repair issues wind out of the system, that B/E number will come down

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 104):
What source do you use for that type of data? I've always had difficulty finding cabin area numbers.

It was a spreadsheet produced by Widebodyphotog a long time ago

rgds


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 96, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 16133 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
And it would be nice to have consistent methodology as well. Unfortunately neither OEM does both.

tortugamon

There is no reason for using slanted numbers from a OEM.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 97, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 16174 times:

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 103):
So is that 20 for Doric and 5 for Emirates?

Five for Emirates sounds a bit low. Meeting the target of 25 sales means a minimum of 25.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 110):
Mind you, he also said that a rate of 25 made break-even harder to reach, but in a manner that was still marginal.

A bit harder but not undoable, Airbus had already cut production costs by 30% (!) in the last 2-3 years.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 106):
Enders said they will make A380 attractive to customers.

Enders said Airbus will be looking at ways to make the A380 more attractive at the end of the decade. This doesn't mean there will be no new orders in the meantime.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 102):
I do not (see below for why).

Thank you anyway Stitch  



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 98, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 15996 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 107):
The seating numbers mentioned by Aspire will not be news to airlines as they make their own calculations based on their own configurations. It does not change perceptions.

Not with the airlines, I agree with you on that. But for the discussion here on A-net it makes a big difference.  .


User currently offlineSpike11 From Norway, joined Oct 2013, 14 posts, RR: 0
Reply 99, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 15605 times:

New here, but grown up to the world, so behaving like a 14-year old wanting the latest iPhone isn't really what I'm about, but I really, really would like to see a bunch of A380 orders at Dubai. Partly because I'm infantile enough to want to see more of the biggest, partly because I'm just a big fan of all four-engined jets. They're just better, even the best of the big twin bunch are simply bigger 737s and that's just plain boring. I want to see trijets, quads, six-engined monsters, not just 330s and triple sevens and at the moment, the 380 seems the best (only..?) bet.

Sorry about the light rant this early in my anet career. I promise to behave later, I know that the aviation industry isn't there just to please this aviation enthusiast. That would be great, though...  


User currently offlineracercoup From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 100, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 15318 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):

Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

You only quoted a part of the story. The real story in the article cited is not That Airbus will meet it's target of 25 in 2013 but that they are effectively LOWERING the future years from 30 to 25, putting the break even target of 2015 further into the future.

Seems Mr. Bregier is not as optimistic about the future of A380 sales as many in this forum. As was noted by you he is a reliable source.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 101, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 15288 times:

Quoting racercoup (Reply 115):
The real story in the article cited is not That Airbus will meet it's target of 25 in 2013 but that they are effectively LOWERING the future years from 30 to 25, putting the break even target of 2015 further into the future.

This thread is mainly about A380 orders/sales, hence I only quoted the sales target. And without any new orders for the year so far, someone at Airbus confirming they'll meet the sales target seems like important news for this thread.

IMO  Wink

Quoting racercoup (Reply 115):
Seems Mr. Bregier is not as optimistic about the future of A380 sales as many in this forum. As was noted by you he is a reliable source.

Just like Boeing, they will lower the production rate to avoid building white tails. This of course doesn't mean there will be no new sales at all, otherwise the new 25 figure would still be a high target for the coming years.

[Edited 2013-10-31 05:49:40]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 102, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 15225 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
And it would be nice to have consistent methodology as well. Unfortunately neither OEM does both.

tortugamon

There is no reason for using slanted numbers from a OEM.

Quoting racercoup (Reply 115):

Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

You only quoted a part of the story. The real story in the article cited is not That Airbus will meet it's target of 25 in 2013 but that they are effectively LOWERING the future years from 30 to 25, putting the break even target of 2015 further into the future.

Seems Mr. Bregier is not as optimistic about the future of A380 sales as many in this forum. As was noted by you he is a reliable source.

There are always many ways to interpret the quotes, especially if we do not get the full questions and answers.
If he talked about deliveries in 2013, there will be 25 delivered this year resulting from the delays do to the changes in wing production.
Regarding 2014 the planing is still delivery of 30 frames.
The plan for 2015 is 30 frames, and we have heard that 2 frames are not committed to a customer as it is.
To the break even point Fabrice Bregier said, that it would be difficult to reach break even in 2015 with a production of 25 frames only. We do not have the question to what this was the answer.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 103, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 15186 times:

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 117):
There is no reason for using slanted numbers from a OEM.

Not sure why the same post multiple times. Again, one OEM is inconsistent with their methodology and one uses dated methodology. Both are not all together helpful.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 117):
Regarding 2014 the planing is still delivery of 30 frames.
The plan for 2015 is 30 frames

Here are the quotes:

Quote:

"We will deliver 25 this year," Bregier told Les Echos. "I have no intention of dropping below this rate in the years to come. The question is whether we will be able to increase sustainably to 30 aircraft (a year).

"The target of reaching breakeven on the program in 2015 is based on that rate (30). At 25 a year, this target would be harder to reach, but on a scale that would still be marginal."
....

"A union source said the upstream production rate of 2.8 per month - or 30 planes annually based on an 11-month industrial calendar - had already slipped slightly in the past two weeks."

Personally, I read this to say mean there will be a rate reduction that has already started upstream. Whether that impacts 2014 or just 2015 deliveries I do not know.

tortugamon


User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 104, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 15147 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118):
Personally, I read this to say mean there will be a rate reduction that has already started upstream. Whether that impacts 2014 or just 2015 deliveries I do not know.

Personally, I see it as reduced demand, leading to lower production - for both Airbus and Boeing. Any of us who have worked in industry will 'know the feeling'!

As to what happens over the next few years, "yer pays yer money and yer takes yer choice......"  

My own guess is that various factors (but primarily increased engine power) have resulted in 'big twins' being close to doing what only the 'big fours' have been able to do until only a few years ago. Like carrying 400-plus passengers on longhaul routers? Offhand, I'd reckon that the maintenance costs of two big engines, instead of four smaller ones, must be VERY much less? Perhaps as much as 40% less? Meaning that 'big twins' will be a lot more profitable?

So that, in my view, both the A380 and the B748 are likely to gather relatively few new orders from now on, and to be out of production within five years or so?

Just my own view, though - anyone else is welcome to disagree?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 105, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 15114 times:
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Quoting Nav20 (Reply 119):
Just my own view, though - anyone else is welcome to disagree?

We know it is your view, and even your wish when it comes to the A380?  .

But Airbus has just recently officially stated that the program will run for 30-40 years, like the B747. And that there will be more versions of the A380 and they will sell these versions to happy customers in the market.

Don't let the current market conditions mislead you when it comes to programs that are 6 years old (starting the EIS at SQ in 2007) and still have at least 24 to 34 years to go.  

[Edited 2013-10-31 06:50:31]

User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 106, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 15076 times:

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 119):
anyone else is welcome to disagree?

I respectfully do disagree. Just replacing EK's 90 A380s would be reason enough to keep the line open longer than that. Emirates has stated they want to do that and order more.

I have never heard of an aircraft production line that closed when there were airlines wanting to make orders. Do you think EK is lying or do you think they will close the line even though they have orders? It really can be only one or the other.

tortugamon


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 107, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 15057 times:

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 119):
Perhaps as much as 40% less?

We had this conversation before and came to other conclusions.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 108, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 15027 times:

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 103):
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 99):

Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier told a French newspaper Airbus would both sell and deliver 25 of the world's largest passenger jets in 2013, meeting its targets.

It sounds to me that Airbus has negotiated sales of 25 aircraft but is waiting to announce them (at Dubai).

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 119):
in my view, both the A380 and the B748 are likely to gather relatively few new orders from now on, and to be out of production within five years or so?

Assuming that Fabrice Bregier is not being optimistic, A380 would need a few cancellations and no orders post Dubai Air Show to cease production within 5 years or so, methinks.


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 109, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 14914 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118):
ersonally, I read this to say mean there will be a rate reduction that has already started upstream. Whether that impacts 2014 or just 2015 deliveries I do not know.

tortugamon

There will be 30 frames convoyed 2013 by the end of this year. There are three convoys expected in January 2014.
There seems to be no slowing down regarding the year 2014.
At year end there will be about 23 frames in Toulouse or Finkenwerder + 3 frames coming in Januar, that leaves only 4 more to make it 30 for 2014.
The time from the frame arriving in Toulouse to delivery seems to be about 9 month.If they slow down for 2015, we should see it in the number of convoyed frames from the middle of next year.


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 1004 posts, RR: 12
Reply 110, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 14774 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 121):
I respectfully do disagree. Just replacing EK's 90 A380s would be reason enough to keep the line open longer than that. Emirates has stated they want to do that and order more.

But I don't think we should expect Emirates to replace their A380's at the ten year mark like they have with some of their other planes.

Singapore Airlines also has a fleet cycle of about ten years, but we have seen lately some aircraft (777-200ER's) are being kept longer (13 years).

Their are economic factors that make replacing aircraft at 10 years viable. One of them is a re-sale market. I am not sure which airlines can absorb all of Emirates A380's over the next 10 - 12 years.


User currently offlinefrmrcapcadet From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1741 posts, RR: 1
Reply 111, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 14708 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 120):
Don't let the current market conditions mislead you when it comes to programs that are 6 years old (starting the EIS at SQ in 2007) and still have at least 24 to 34 years to go

1988 seriously started considering
1994 announced they would build it solo
2000 launched with 50 order - December
2001 early in the year configuration finalized
2005 first flight
2006 IIRC, one plane into service

I suppose one can choose whatever date one wants. But suspect that most would choose 2000 or 2001.

After 14 years orders seem stabilized at just a little under 20. And that includes a great recession as well as two half *ss recoveries. After that many years I think statistical analysis would suggest it may be reliable enough a figure that it would take at least one very big year, or a few years over 30 sales to suggest that building 30 planes a year is sustainable.

It is a great plane, and I suspect that Airbus will produce it as long as they can afford to, even taking a small loss if they have to.



Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 112, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14610 times:
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Quoting frmrcapcadet (Reply 126):
I suppose one can choose whatever date one wants. But suspect that most would choose 2000 or 2001.

I do not agree. When it comes to the B777 or A330 we are speaking of airplanes almost 20 years old. We refer to the B747 as being almost 45 years old. The age of the B787 is also not being referred to from the launch date. The EIS dates were always leading for that for every plane I know.

So I do not see why the A380 should or would be seen any different. Then again, this is the A380 we are talking about.........  .


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 113, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 14440 times:
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Quoting racercoup (Reply 115):
The real story in the article cited is not That Airbus will meet it's target of 25 in 2013 but that they are effectively LOWERING the future years from 30 to 25, putting the break even target of 2015 further into the future.

don't agree on either count.

They've put a floor on future years around which they will manage supply and demand. They're still targeting 30+

as for break-even, most people seem to forget that the biggest driver here is that 2015 sees the back of most of the frames that were ordered before the slippage, and have thus taken big penalties.
30 per year is NOT a break-even ad-nauseam   

note that the 748 is currently at 1.5 per month - 18 per year at best, but Boeing still forecast the PROGRAMME breaking even - so these frames are still making money.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 125):
Their are economic factors that make replacing aircraft at 10 years viable. One of them is a re-sale market. I am not sure which airlines can absorb all of Emirates A380's over the next 10 - 12 years.

No airlines will be in a position to absorb all of Emirates A380's over the next 10 - 12 years, because EK only received their 1st A380 5 years ago, and won't receive their last for another 5 years.

The timeframe for the current 90 ordered coming onto the second-hand market is at best 2020 to 2030, assuming a 12 year roll-over

rgds


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 114, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14017 times:

Quoting frmrcapcadet (Reply 126):
2006 IIRC, one plane into service

It was in October 2007 with 9V-SKA (MSN 003), the first and only airframe delivered in 2007.


User currently offlineracercoup From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 115, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 13738 times:

It is a great plane, and I suspect that Airbus will produce it as long as they can afford to, even taking a small loss if they have to.

Wow, what comforting news for the stockholders. And all this time the whalejet program is bleeding money it has also cost Airbus years of A350 deliveries to the 787 program. They also lost 47 A300 frieghters to UPS as a result of the A380 program.

The bragging rights to building the largest airliner comes at a very high cost indeed.


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 116, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 13654 times:

Quoting racercoup (Reply 130):
Wow, what comforting news for the stockholders. And all this time the whalejet program is bleeding money it has also cost Airbus years of A350 deliveries to the 787 program. They also lost 47 A300 frieghters to UPS as a result of the A380 program.

The bragging rights to building the largest airliner comes at a very high cost indeed.

Yes Airbus lost four years of the B 787 bleeding stockholders money.

What has losing a contract about 47 A 300 F to do with the A 380? Did UPS pick the B 767 because they were pissed at Airbus, not because it was the better deal?
And do you talk about the A 330 F? UPS has quite a few A 300.

[Edited 2013-11-03 07:33:37]

User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 117, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 13556 times:

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 131):

UPS had 47 A300 on order and cancelled them for 10 A380s which they then cancelled and went for the 767.

But that's not to say that the A300s wouldn't of been canceled without the A380 though


User currently offlineKengo From Japan, joined Apr 2013, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 118, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13048 times:

Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...jumbo-sale-drought.html?cmpid=yhoo


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 119, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13014 times:

Quoting Kengo (Reply 133):
Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014.

Good article, with some interesting pieces of new information. Confirmation that the Doric order is about to be firmed up, that Doric is going with 11-abreast seating, and then this interesting tidbit:

"Lapidus also expects to maintain comfort levels by raising the floor under the seats on the main deck to boost available width, he said."

I presume they will not actually raise the structure of the floor, but rather put some false floor on top of it?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 120, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13028 times:
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Quoting Kengo (Reply 133):
Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014.

So that seems to dispel the recent rumor that Doric's frames would be going to EK.   


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 40
Reply 121, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13003 times:
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Quoting Kengo (Reply 133):
Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014.

Great news.  .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 135):
So that seems to dispel the recent rumor that Doric's frames would be going to EK.

It does. But will EK add some more to their total order count?   .

Quoting Scipio (Reply 134):
Good article, with some interesting pieces of new information.

Indeed it is. I especially like the sentence:

Quote:

“When we put the proper seat count on the plane, the economics are unbeatable and will remain unbeatable,” Lapidus said.


[Edited 2013-11-05 17:43:22]

User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 122, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 12970 times:



This illustrates how one can indeed gain cabin width by moving the floor up.

However, it raises questions:

- how much weight does it add?
- do you also raise the ceiling to preserve headroom?
- what about the windows?
- why didn't anyone think of this before (e.g., at the A380's design stage)?

[Edited 2013-11-05 17:48:39]

User currently offlineteraur From France, joined Sep 2013, 12 posts, RR: 0
Reply 123, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 12902 times:

It is not a surprise but yesterday at their financial results conference, Air Austral CEO Mr Marie Joseph Malé confirmed that UU will not take delivery of their two A380 and are in discussion with Airbus to take back their money.

In June, delivery was still an option.

Quote:
"Les négociations sont toujours en cours avec Airbus afin d’aboutir à une solution pour récupérer les sommes versées pour l’acquisition de deux A380 auxquels nous avons renoncé"

Roughly :
"Negociations are still going on with Airbus to reach a solution to recover the amount of money given for the acquisition of the two A380 which we gave up"

I would still bet on a conversion to A350.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 124, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 12708 times:

Quoting teraur (Reply 138):
to take back their money.

They paid 30 million euros in deposits.

Quoting teraur (Reply 138):
I would still bet on a conversion to A350.

I don't know, they couldn't even take delivery of a B777-200LR.

Quoting Kengo (Reply 133):
Doric plans to firm their orders for 20 A380s by end of this year and firm up their first A380 client in early 2014.

  



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offline7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1759 posts, RR: 16
Reply 125, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 12429 times:

Latest Av Week has an interesting commentary on the end of four engine aircraft and apparent comments from the AFA/KLM CEO that they may not take all the A380's they have on order (the last 2).

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 126, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 12393 times:
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Quoting teraur (Reply 138):
I would still bet on a conversion to A350.
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 139):
I don't know, they couldn't even take delivery of a B777-200LR.

Maybe an A320 to compliment their two 737-800s?


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 127, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12257 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 135):
So that seems to dispel the recent rumor that Doric's frames would be going to EK.

Not entirely. This website claims that Emirates is actively investigating installing 11-across seating on its A380 fleet:

http://www.businesstraveller.com/new...tes-eyes-11-across-seating-on-a380



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 128, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12135 times:

Can someone remind me of the seat width of an 11 abreast A380? Can they get above 17" seats without compressing the aisles/armrests too much? I get 16.4" without changing either but I realize there has to be more room than that.

tortugamon


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 129, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12126 times:

It should give you the same comfort as on the B777-300ER at 10-abreast.


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineProst From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1230 posts, RR: 1
Reply 130, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12096 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 144):

It should give you the same comfort as on the B777-300ER at 10-abreast.




Shouldn't comfort be in quotation marks?


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 131, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12086 times:

Quoting Prost (Reply 145):
Shouldn't comfort be in quotation marks?

That depends, do you like the comfort onboard an 10-abreast B77W? If the answer is no, you won't like an 11-abreast A380 neither.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 132, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 12011 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 144):
It should give you the same comfort as on the B777-300ER at 10-abreast.

Ok, so I imagine the assumption is that it will be able to breach the 17" mark.

If this becomes more mainstream, do we think that the A389 stretch is still likely? Essentially that would mean two stretches worth of capacity in a short time period. I wonder if it will be one or the other.

tortugamon


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 133, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 11996 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 147):
Ok, so I imagine the assumption is that it will be able to breach the 17" mark.

The default 10-abreast configuration is available here: http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi...ata/AC/Airbus-AC_A380_20121101.pdf

Playing with those numbers in a spreadsheet, it gives us:

http://oi44.tinypic.com/svgpdv.jpg

I believe 17" seat cushions and 17" aisles are default on an 10-abreast 77W. The maximum cabin width is 257" so their is a bit room to move the floor a bit up.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 134, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 11928 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 148):

Did you add the extra arm rest to the calculation? It looks like your 11-abreast calc is off by 1.5.

It does appear that 17.0" is feasible. I could see EK and AF going that route. But BA/SQ and others seem resistant to it. It is going to be interesting to track this development. It boggles my mind how such a large aircraft can come down to a half an inch calculation here and there.

Thanks for the info Karel

tortugamon

edit: I have been on aircraft where there is not a full arm rest next to the window. I wondered if for a quick moment if the A380 could go that way and then I remembered the feeling like the window/wall is far away from the seats and you need an arm rest there. I wonder if 11 abreast changes that dynamic but I suspect not.

[Edited 2013-11-06 14:45:36]

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 135, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11923 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 149):
Did you add the extra arm rest to the calculation? It looks like your 11-abreast calc is off by 1.5.

Nice catch, here's a better one:

http://s23.postimg.org/fapsab56z/Screenshot_from_2013_11_06_23_51_00.png

[Edited 2013-11-06 14:51:38]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 136, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11886 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 149):
edit: I have been on aircraft where there is not a full arm rest next to the window. I wondered if for a quick moment if the A380 could go that way and then I remembered the feeling like the window/wall is far away from the seats and you need an arm rest there. I wonder if 11 abreast changes that dynamic but I suspect not.

The floor width on the main deck is about 248" while the max cabin width is 257", so their should be enough room for those arm rests.

Speaking about it, we could leave the arm rests out of the 248" figure and create a bit more aisle space.



http://s22.postimg.org/tycc2q7y9/Screenshot_from_2013_11_07_00_04_50.png

[Edited 2013-11-06 15:06:21]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineDUSint From Germany, joined Apr 2013, 194 posts, RR: 0
Reply 137, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11997 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 149):
edit: I have been on aircraft where there is not a full arm rest next to the window. I wondered if for a quick moment if the A380 could go that way and then I remembered the feeling like the window/wall is far away from the seats and you need an arm rest there. I wonder if 11 abreast changes that dynamic but I suspect not.

I think that this is a very interesting detail regarding the 380 cabin.
While having been seated in a window seat several times, I always noticed what I would call "wasted space" - all this... "roomy nothing" between the seat and the wall. You can literally do "nothing" useful with it from a pax point of view. You even cannot lean your head on the wall for getting some rest as you would have to awkwardly bend over to the side.

So, if the floor of the upper deck would be lifted by some inches - I am sure you could place the window seats more towards the... well... window?


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 138, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11954 times:

Quoting DUSint (Reply 152):
I think that this is a very interesting detail regarding the 380 cabin.

Yes, see the picture above. There is 248" from the first to the last seat while the maximum cabin width is 257". That's about 4.5" (11cm) space on each side.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 147):
If this becomes more mainstream, do we think that the A389 stretch is still likely? Essentially that would mean two stretches worth of capacity in a short time period. I wonder if it will be one or the other.

A further stretch only makes sense when an 11-abreast Y A380 would become too small. Or if one needs more seats and wants to maintain seat comfort, but that won't happen in the current economic climate.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 149):
I could see EK and AF going that route.

With EK latest comments "give the pheasants food and entertainment and they're happy" and "you're a fool not going 10-abreast in the 77W" than yes, I expect EK to go 11-abreast at some point.

[Edited 2013-11-06 15:26:40]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 139, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 11849 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 150):
Nice catch, here's a better one:

That looks about right. I know 19" aisles are relatively common. I wonder about 17.2"

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 151):
The floor width on the main deck is about 248" while the max cabin width is 257"

I can see why Doric wants to add some floor height.

Quoting DUSint (Reply 152):
You can literally do "nothing" useful with it from a pax point of view.

I agree. It feels wasted. However, at the same time, it is nice to not be pushed up against someone. Its like an Aisle and window in one!

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 153):
A further stretch only makes sense when an 11-abreast Y A380 would become too small. Or if one needs more seats and wants to maintain seat comfort, but that won't happen in the current economic climate.

Good assessment. Maybe in a few years this will change. It does appear that 11 abreast makes the most sense as a next step. Surprised that Airbus must disagree because of all of the talk about 18" seats seems contradictory.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 153):
pheasants

One 'h' changes the meaning so dramatically.   I got a laugh out of this. I joke just because your English is exceptional.

tortugamon


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26005 posts, RR: 22
Reply 140, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 11862 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 146):
Quoting Prost (Reply 145):
Shouldn't comfort be in quotation marks?

That depends, do you like the comfort onboard an 10-abreast B77W? If the answer is no, you won't like an 11-abreast A380 neither.

The 11-abreast A380 drawing in reply 151 shows both wider seats (18.5") and much wider aisles (20") than a 10-abreast 777. Looks much better to me if the 11-abreast numbers are accurate.


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 141, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 11846 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 155):
The 11-abreast A380 drawing in reply 151 shows both wider seats (18.5") and much wider aisles (20") than a 10-abreast 777.

Not sure if it is accurate but the lines look like they come down in the middle of the armrest rather than the seat cushion. At least that was my impression.

tortugamon


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 142, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 11768 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 135):
So that seems to dispel the recent rumor that Doric's frames would be going to EK.     
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 142):
Not entirely. This website claims that Emirates is actively investigating installing 11-across seating on its A380 fleet...

The trick is, why does Doric need Airbus Sales support to sell to EK?  

I mean the only reason I can see for EK to buy direct from Doric as opposed to direct from Airbus is to save them the paperwork of selling their frames to Doric prior to delivery.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26005 posts, RR: 22
Reply 143, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 11745 times:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 156):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 155):
The 11-abreast A380 drawing in reply 151 shows both wider seats (18.5") and much wider aisles (20") than a 10-abreast 777.

Not sure if it is accurate but the lines look like they come down in the middle of the armrest rather than the seat cushion. At least that was my impression.

Those seat and aisle width numbers can't possibly be correct for an 11-abreast A380 configuration. Carriers with 10-abreast seating show seat widths of about 18 inches and Airbus shows a 20-inch aisle width at 10-abreast, so there's no way to add an 11th seat without reducing both the seat and aisle width.


User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 144, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 11759 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 157):
I mean the only reason I can see for EK to buy direct from Doric as opposed to direct from Airbus is to save them the paperwork of selling their frames to Doric prior to delivery.

As far as I know, Stitch, the 'drill' is that, first off, EK (or another customer) agrees to lease the aeroplanes from Doric? So Doric first of all secures EK's agreement to lease the aeroplanes (usually for 12 years); then 'sells' the benefit of the leases to investors, on the basis of promising them a satisfactory annual rate of return; then buys the aircraft from Airbus and hands them over. At the end of the lease term, Doric takes the aircraft back and either sells them 'second-hand' or re-leases them to other airlines.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 145, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11696 times:

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):
As far as I know, Stitch, the 'drill' is that, first off, EK (or another customer) agrees to lease the aeroplanes from Doric? So Doric first of all secures EK's agreement to lease the aeroplanes (usually for 12 years); then 'sells' the benefit of the leases to investors, on the basis of promising them a satisfactory annual rate of return; then buys the aircraft from Airbus and hands them over. At the end of the lease term, Doric takes the aircraft back and either sells them 'second-hand' or re-leases them to other airlines.

If EK wants more A380s, it will buy them directly from Airbus and arrange financing in due course.

The Doric A380s are not intended for EK. Doric has said as much, but some people just refuse to believe what Doric says unless it fits their world view...

Think about it for a moment. EK is Airbus's largest A380 customer. Nobody is in a better position than EK to negotiate with Airbus on A380 purchases. EK is also Doric's largest customer in terms of A380 financing deals. So, EK is in a very strong negotiating position versus Doric.

There is no benefit whatsoever for EK to have Doric deal directly with Airbus for A380s that would be intended for EK.

The only reasonable rationale for Doric's deal with Airbus is to place A380s with customers other than EK...

[Edited 2013-11-06 20:07:39]

[Edited 2013-11-06 20:11:41]

User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 146, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11658 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 160):
If EK wants more A380s, it will buy them directly from Airbus and arrange financing in due course.

In fairness, Scipio, I did say 'EK (or another customer)'?  
Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):
first off, EK (or another customer) agrees to lease the aeroplanes from Doric?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 926 posts, RR: 10
Reply 147, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11654 times:

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 161):
In fairness, Scipio, I did say 'EK (or another customer)'?  

Consider for once, earnestly, the possibility that what Doric says is actually true: that they found out that financing A380s is a good business, and they want to expand this business by placing A380s with new customers.

Financing EK A380s is a business that will come their way in any case (or, at least, it is a business they will continue to be able to compete for). They do not need a deal with Airbus for that...


User currently offlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 1004 posts, RR: 12
Reply 148, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11626 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 128):
No airlines will be in a position to absorb all of Emirates A380's over the next 10 - 12 years, because EK only received their 1st A380 5 years ago, and won't receive their last for another 5 years.

My argument was more: the economics of owning an A380 has some fundamental differences to other aircraft meaning airlines that traditionally replace aircraft at 10 years may not necessarily replace the A380 at 10 years. As such a 10 year replacement cycle for traditional aircraft may equate to a 14? year replacement cycle on an A380.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 157):
I mean the only reason I can see for EK to buy direct from Doric as opposed to direct from Airbus is to save them the paperwork of selling their frames to Doric prior to delivery.
Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):
As far as I know, Stitch, the 'drill' is that, first off, EK (or another customer) agrees to lease the aeroplanes from Doric? So Doric first of all secures EK's agreement to lease the aeroplanes (usually for 12 years); then 'sells' the benefit of the leases to investors, on the basis of promising them a satisfactory annual rate of return; then buys the aircraft from Airbus and hands them over. At the end of the lease term, Doric takes the aircraft back and either sells them 'second-hand' or re-leases them to other airlines.
Quoting Scipio (Reply 160):
There is no benefit whatsoever for EK to have Doric deal directly with Airbus for A380s that would be intended for EK.

... and we have to remember EK's purchase price and A380 market value at time of transaction. For EK's sale and lease back arrangements, I would suggest they would normally be selling the plane for more than what they purchased it for. If they didn't there would be no or little advantage in entering in to such a deal.

Cash is King!


User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 149, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11608 times:

Quoting Scipio (Reply 162):
They do not need a deal with Airbus for that...

Oh heck - we're not disagreeing...........

Doric (and others) do deals with BOTH the manufacturer AND the operator. Basically, the rent has to be high enough for them to service the purchase debt and 'on-sell' it to investors - and low enough to persuade the operators to settle for leasing rather than buying. So they have to negotiate so as to 'balance' the purchase price, the rental cost, and the return to investors so that everyone (including themselves) are happy with the deal? Effectively negotiating deals that suit the purchasers, the manufacturers, and the investors; and hopefully let them go on making a living themselves........

Nothing at all wrong with that. But it DOES mean that they have to do 'three-cornered' deals that suit all the parties........... Not easy..........



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13536 posts, RR: 100
Reply 150, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11628 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 153):
A further stretch only makes sense when an 11-abreast Y A380 would become too small.

This I disagree on. It isn't the A388 is too small, its that a lower CASM would help sell further A380 airframes.

Take the A321, it costs about 8% more per flight than the A320, but at 190 to 150 seats (B6, all Y), that is 26% more seats for 8% more cost.    The A389 stretch will have similar economics and thus a much lower CASM. The A389 should have 15% to 18% lower CASM than the A388. That will stimulate more than a few routes.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1152 posts, RR: 3
Reply 151, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11587 times:
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Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 140):

Latest Av Week has an interesting commentary on the end of four engine aircraft and apparent comments from the AFA/KLM CEO that they may not take all the A380's they have on order (the last 2).

I read the same article and have to agree with it about the demise of the A380 and 747 to the large twins except for the 747F or something similar. The 747f has the ability to have a nose door for hauling outsize cargo. It would be very unlikely that a large twin could be fitted with a nose cargo door.


[quote=KarelXWB,reply=150]Nice catch, here's a better one:

You show a graph with either a 17.5 or 20 inch aisle between seats. Just what is the minimum aisle width allowed for evacuation of an aircraft in an emergency?   

[Edited 2013-11-06 21:34:18]


Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10241 posts, RR: 97
Reply 152, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 11584 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 149):
It does appear that 17.0" is feasible

The main deck of an A380 is 19" wider than that of a 777 - so an extra 17" seat and 2" armrest should fit nicely

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 154):
I can see why Doric wants to add some floor height

Yep. Either that, or can Airbus scallop a few inches out of the linings just above the deck in much the same way Boeing propose for the 777X in order to fit 17.2" seats..

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 159):
So Doric first of all secures EK's agreement to lease the aeroplanes (usually for 12 years); then 'sells' the benefit of the leases to investors, on the basis of promising them a satisfactory annual rate of return; then buys the aircraft from Airbus and hands them over.

Not sure why you keep doing this.
Doric will have FIRMED their order with Airbus BEFORE they secure customers for the frames, just like any other lessor. They say they expect to firm this order this year, and secure their first customer in Feb/Mar next year. They're NOT just salesmen for Airbus as you seem keen to imply

Quoting travelhound (Reply 163):
the economics of owning an A380 has some fundamental differences to other aircraft meaning airlines that traditionally replace aircraft at 10 years may not necessarily replace the A380 at 10 years. As such a 10 year replacement cycle for traditional aircraft may equate to a 14? year replacement cycle on an A380.

Ah. That makes sense,

Rgds


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13114 posts, RR: 35
Reply 153, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11282 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 157):
The trick is, why does Doric need Airbus Sales support to sell to EK?  

I mean the only reason I can see for EK to buy direct from Doric as opposed to direct from Airbus is to save them the paperwork of selling their frames to Doric prior to delivery.

I suppose you're right. After re-reading the Business Traveller article, it seems they have quoted Clark from saying EK looked at 11 abreast but there is no further link to Doric. The article is mainly based on speculation.

And besides, Doric themselves said they'll be looking at other customers.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 158):
Those seat and aisle width numbers can't possibly be correct for an 11-abreast A380 configuration. Carriers with 10-abreast seating show seat widths of about 18 inches and Airbus shows a 20-inch aisle width at 10-abreast, so there's no way to add an 11th seat without reducing both the seat and aisle width.

It all has to fit within 248", and we can exclude the outer arm rests of seat 1 and 10 because the cabin is wider at arm rest level. Also, I used 17" seat cushion as minimum, I assume airlines will use 17.2" (77W) or 17.4" (777X) thus aisle width will be reduced in a more realistic airline configuration. You'll get an ~ 18" aisle with 17.4" seats.

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 166):
Just what is the minimum aisle width allowed for evacuation of an aircraft in an emergency?

I don't know but the 9-abreast A330s have 16.5" aisles which are already pretty tight.

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi...data/AC/Airbus-AC-A330-Apr2013.pdf (page 82).

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 165):
This I disagree on. It isn't the A388 is too small, its that a lower CASM would help sell further A380 airframes.

I agree but what I meant is, an airline can already place extra seats in the A388 by going 11-abreast in Y on the main deck. You don't have to wait for an A389 if CASM is your main problem.

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 164):
Not easy..........

That's why they have skilled people.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
Doric will have FIRMED their order with Airbus BEFORE they secure customers for the frames, just like any other lessor. They say they expect to firm this order this year, and secure their first customer in Feb/Mar next year. They're NOT just salesmen for Airbus as you seem keen to imply

  

Quoting Scipio (Reply 160):
If EK wants more A380s, it will buy them directly from Airbus and arrange financing in due course.

The Doric A380s are not intended for EK. Doric has said as much, but some people just refuse to believe what Doric says unless it fits their world view...

  

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 154):
One 'h' changes the meaning so dramatically.   I got a laugh out of this. I joke just because your English is exceptional.

  



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineNav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 154, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 11133 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
They're NOT just salesmen for Airbus as you seem keen to imply

Misunderstanding, astuteman - I don't recall ever saying that they were?

My guess is that their main clients are the investors? But that, to achieve agreement on a deal like this one, they have to have regard to the 'best interests' of all the parties involved?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 478 posts, RR: 11
Reply 155, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 11082 times:

Quoting DUSint (Reply 152):
While having been seated in a window seat several times, I always noticed what I would call "wasted space" - all this... "roomy nothing" between the seat and the wall. You can literally do "nothing" useful with it from a pax point of view.

Having just (well, less than 24 hours ago, anyway) come off the upper deck of an MH A380 (9M-MNF - the 100th A380 delivered, as it happens), I have to disagree. In Y, MH have installed a sort of combined armrest/luggage compartment, which was actually very handy for storing things not just inside but also on top - e.g. the various snacks/deserts/reading material that you can't fit into the seat pocket in front of you. With no prompt from myself, my wife (who actually sat in the window seat) said that she'd be looking out to get the same sort of seat on an A380 upper deck the next time.
Pity so few airlines have any Y on the upper deck, though.
By the way - on the outbound leg, there wasn't a single empty seat on the plane (as confirmed by the handling agent when we asked to get a paid-for upgrade to Business), and on the return leg, there were only very few empty Y seats, which was still pretty good going for a Wednesday morning flight.

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 166):
The 747f has the ability to have a nose door for hauling outsize cargo. It would be very unlikely that a large twin could be fitted with a nose cargo door.

That door again - I'm not disputing that it has some use, but I wouldn't overstate its importance.
Bear in mind that due to the cockpit above, its loading height is lower than the side door's, so the nose door only has a unique selling point for very long cargo. Also keep in mind that the nose door doesn't exist on converted pax 747s.

[Edited 2013-11-07 03:53:24]


Flown on: A300B4, A310-200/-300, A319, A320-100/-200, A321-200, A330-200, A340-500/-600, A380-800, An-24, An-26, ATR42,
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 156, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 11088 times:
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EK's Tim Clark reiterated again today that he wants more than 90 A380-800s, but lack of space at DXB is constraining his expansion plans.

[Edited 2013-11-07 03:50:52]

User currently offlineracercoup From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 157, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10918 times:

I think the whole Doric MOU is a smoke screen meant to put lipstick on an order book that is starting to smell. 9 sales in 2012, -3 so far this year with orders to another 20 or so questionable units some of which turn negative anytime so.......

You sit in a room with your friends at Doric who have a vested interest in the success of the A380, lets face it if sale stay stagnant the used A380's coming off of lease in a few years are not going to be worth very much. So Doric signs a MOU that really does not commit it to much of anything, the order book goes from -3 to +17 (feels better already). Maybe next year Airbus finally takes the 5 frames for King Fisher (and airline that has been shut down for over a year and been de-certified) off the books. There is nothing earth shattering about 21 possiable cancellations except when it represents A) 14% of a weak back long B) about 20% of a small customer list dominated by one customer C) in the middles of a sales

There are not enough feasable orders on the horizon to make up for even half of these highly probable cancellations and maintain 25 delivery slots through the decade and at the same time protect the value of used aircraft.

The Doric MOU is a hearty serving of koolaid, drink up boys  


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 158, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10907 times:
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So if Doric does firm their order in the coming weeks, what does that do to your theory?

Or will the narrative change to state that Doric won't ever take delivery?


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 159, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10828 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 132):
UPS had 47 A300 on order and cancelled them for 10 A380s which they then cancelled and went for the 767.

But that's not to say that the A300s wouldn't of been canceled without the A380 though
Quoting racercoup (Reply 172):
I think the whole Doric MOU is a smoke screen meant to put lipstick on an order book that is starting to smell. 9 sales in 2012, -3 so far this year with orders to another 20 or so questionable units some of which turn negative anytime so.......

You sit in a room with your friends at Doric who have a vested interest in the success of the A380, lets face it if sale stay stagnant the used A380's coming off of lease in a few years are not going to be worth very much. So Doric signs a MOU that really does not commit it to much of anything, the order book goes from -3 to +17 (feels better already). Maybe next year Airbus finally takes the 5 frames for King Fisher (and airline that has been shut down for over a year and been de-certified) off the books. There is nothing earth shattering about 21 possiable cancellations except when it represents A) 14% of a weak back long B) about 20% of a small customer list dominated by one customer C) in the middles of a sales

There are not enough feasable orders on the horizon to make up for even half of these highly probable cancellations and maintain 25 delivery slots through the decade and at the same time protect the value of used aircraft.



The Doric MOU is a hearty serving of koolaid, drink up boys

Take out all the dodgy orders out of the A 380 order book, take away the birds still to be delivered this year and do not count Doric.
That will leave around 120 (worst case 113) open orders for the A 380 at the end of the year. That gives about 4 years of backlog at the current production rate of 30 frames per year.
Than have a look at the B 747 back in history, have a look how many years the B 747 did not have a four years backlog.
That frame is counted a success.

So if Doric should firm the MOU of 20 frames this year and perhaps Emirates should order a few will you than drink your koolaid?


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 160, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10809 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 165):
This I disagree on. It isn't the A388 is too small, its that a lower CASM would help sell further A380 airframes.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 165):
The A389 stretch will have similar economics and thus a much lower CASM.

I have zero doubt of the A389's seat economics just its popularity. And if you can get similar economics from going 11 abreast in an A388 then why push for an A389 to begin with? I would not want to be the airline that orders an A389 and plans 10 abreast while the rest of the industry goes 11 abreast in an A388 unless I know my customers will pay more.

An A389 stretch and 11 abreast would increase 3-class capacity toward the other side of 700 seats if I am not mistaken. That is a big jump.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 158):
Carriers with 10-abreast seating show seat widths of about 18 inches and Airbus shows a 20-inch aisle width at 10-abreast, so there's no way to add an 11th seat without reducing both the seat and aisle width.

Sorry to repeat myself here but I believe the picture shows widths to the middle of the arm rest. The actual seat width in the picture is much closer to 17".

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
The main deck of an A380 is 19" wider than that of a 777 - so an extra 17" seat and 2" armrest should fit nicely

If you can use the full width of the main deck and not just the lower/less-wide part. It does appear that 17" is very reasonable without too many accommodations.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
Either that, or can Airbus scallop a few inches out of the linings

There does appear to be more space in an A380 wall then a 777x wall. I don't see why it isn't doable.

Do you think common 11-abreast A380s will replace the need for an A389 in the near future? Or do you think both can/should happen?

tortugamon


User currently offlinemjoelnir From Iceland, joined Feb 2013, 1557 posts, RR: 3
Reply 161, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 10668 times:

For 11 in a row, a 19" aisle, 1.5 inch armrest (6+3+3 excluding the window side) will give you 17.4 space between each armrest by keeping inside the 248 inch space.
The seat cushion will be a little bigger, as in Y the armrest usually do not reach down between the seat cushions.
That space is comparable to the space in a 10 a row B 747 and better than in the 10 a row B 777-X.

IMO most A 380 will stay ten in a Y row and again IMO the A 380 is that big, with +50 % more floor space than the B 777-9X, that more crowding is not necessary. Keep the image of the A 380 being more comfortable in all classes.

The other way if you go for crowding you should be able to fit into a A 380 630 passengers compared to the 407 passengers of the B 777 with the same seat space for each class and the same relative distribution between the numbers of each class.

Floor space B 777-9X about 365 m2
Floor space A 380-800 about 580 m2

[Edited 2013-11-07 07:26:48]

User currently offlineanfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 478 posts, RR: 11
Reply 162, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 10654 times:

Quoting racercoup (Reply 172):
You sit in a room with your friends