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SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25338 posts, RR: 49
Posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 15048 times:

As part of its restructuring plan, South African Airways management has identified loss making long haul routes for cuts.

Both Beijing and Buenos Aires were at the top of the carriers list for discontinuation, however due to "shareholder views" (read SA government), carrier has opted to keep Beijing and only drop Buenos Aires for now. According to South African Department of Public Enterprises, China had "strategic and development reasons” for being retained.

According to SAA the Buenos Aires route was losing approx USD $5mil annually, while Beijing was generating a $30mil loss.

Additionally Sao Paulo and Mumbai were identified as loss making markets to be cut also, however they are also being retained for now.


Story:
Argentina complains South African Airways decision to cut the Buenos Aires route
http://en.mercopress.com/2013/11/07/...sion-to-cut-the-buenos-aires-route
and
Study finds Johannesburg-Mumbai route unprofitable
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...-for-sa-airways/article5314298.ece

=

In my view, its good loss making routes are getting the chop, however yet again here the government is only allowing SA to make half-steps and continue to fly markets which continue to accumulate red ink.
Hardly the proper full recipe for the long time loss making enterprise.

[Edited 2013-11-07 08:15:15]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
95 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7582 posts, RR: 42
Reply 1, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 14853 times:

Wow, so with this Argentina has lost its air links with South Africa. First MH quit EZE-CPT and now SA ends EZE-JNB. I wonder if the Argentinian government will push AR to launch service to South Africa. Interesting that GRU is also on the list of destinations to be cut; I would have imagined that JNB-GRU was at least mildly profitable.


Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6165 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14823 times:

If all EZE-JNB links have been cut, that traffic will presumably flow over GRU now....might make buoy those routes now.


When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7582 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14750 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 2):
If all EZE-JNB links have been cut, that traffic will presumably flow over GRU now....might make buoy those routes now.

Very good point. SA would need however to find a codeshare/mileage partner for GRU-EZE or GRU-AEP flights (and maybe other GRU-Argentina flights) in order to be in a position to continue serving Buenos Aires/Argentina fliers.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2161 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14687 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Additionally Sao Paulo and Mumbai were identified as loss making markets to be cut also, however they are also being retained for now.

How on earth can GRU not be profitable for SAA? It is one of the few routes with good aircraft utilization.

Had you asked me what are the most profitable routes for SAA I would have thought GRU, PEK, BOM and EZE because utilization to Europe is so bad. But if SAA can't even make money with these routes they are really in bad shape.


User currently offlineirishayes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2188 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14655 times:

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 1):

Wow, so with this Argentina has lost its air links with South Africa. First MH quit EZE-CPT and now SA ends EZE-JNB.

Yup. But it's largely because the yields are not there between the two markets. Argentina is not a high growth market. Moreover, the financial states of both flag carriers cannot support linkages.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 1):
I wonder if the Argentinian government will push AR to launch service to South Africa

Possibly. But, as we all know, AR is not a picnic themselves  
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 1):
Interesting that GRU is also on the list of destinations to be cut; I would have imagined that JNB-GRU was at least mildly profitable.

Virtually all of SAA's long haul routes are unprofitable, according to sources: PEK, HKG, BOM, GRU and EZE included. Of those, EZE is the most politically and economically unstable, so it is the first to go. GRU will be retained just by nature of the fact that it is Brasil. PEK, by similar virtue of being part of a BRIC country, has also received government opposition to being chopped due to its political importance. I cannot imagine how SAA can expect to turn a profit on this route with an A346.

BOM ought to be axed as well. It's simply redundant for SAA to serve this market despite the large volume between South Africa and India - which is frankly far too-yielding and subject to being eaten alive by the GCCs. After forging codeshares with EY and 9W, SA should just abandon serving India on its own metal entirely and route pax via AUH.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
In my view, its good loss making routes are getting the chop, however yet again here the government is only allowing SA to make half-steps and continue to fly markets which continue to accumulate red ink.
Hardly the proper full recipe for the long time loss making enterprise.

Agreed. Trimming the fat doesn't do much good when the entire structure is completely bloated.

SAA also has NO long-haul fleet replacement for the Airbus A340s which is absolutely going to slaughter them if they don't act fast.

[Edited 2013-11-07 09:11:21]


next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1459 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14629 times:

So lets see.
Article says Sao Paulo loses more money then EZE. So lets put that at $10mil. Also for fun lets assume Mumbai lose $10mil.

So airline says it identified 4 markets that lose $55mil USD annually and government only allow then to cut 1 route at $5mil savings.

SA is a cancer patient and needs major restructuring, not a little aspirin.

  


User currently offlinebsbisland From Brazil, joined Jul 2005, 379 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 14516 times:

SAA flies JNB-GRU 11 weekly. If it's really unprofitable it would make more sense to cut a few weekly frequencies before dropping it. And for some reason the airline has not announced any reduction in frequencies.

User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2161 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14289 times:

Quoting bsbisland (Reply 7):
SAA flies JNB-GRU 11 weekly. If it's really unprofitable it would make more sense to cut a few weekly frequencies before dropping it. And for some reason the airline has not announced any reduction in frequencies.

Agree. SA224 that arrives GRU at 0100 could surely be cut. That arrival time in GRU is awful. They should cut that flight and leave SA222/223 which has a great schedule.

If they are losing money to GRU this would be the quickest way to resolve losses.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14146 times:

Quoting AF022 (Reply 4):
Had you asked me what are the most profitable routes for SAA I would have thought GRU, PEK, BOM and EZE because utilization to Europe is so bad. But if SAA can't even make money with these routes they are really in bad shape.
Quoting AF022 (Reply 8):
If they are losing money to GRU this would be the quickest way to resolve losses.

i don't believe SA's losses have much to do with the markets or routes they fly to. I think awfully poor management and special interests are the cause.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
Virtually all of SAA's long haul routes are unprofitable

This just proves my point. It points to a deeply rooted problem with the company, not the markets or routes that they serve.


User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 10, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 14092 times:

This is all so contradictory. To be very frank, not a single long haul route of SAA makes a NET PROFIT. Some may make an OPERATIONAL PROFIT but definitely not a net profit. The only A340 operated route according to me that makes or comes close to making a net profit for SAA are LAD and LOS !

As far as BOM and PEK are concerned, I would suggest the following to keep both online in a cost saving manner:

a) Operate a daily A346 JNB-BOM-PEK-BOM-JNB and get 5th freedom traffic rights on BOM-PEK-BOM. On this sector, it can code share with both CA and 9W + have a monopoly as no one flies BOM-PEK nonstop for which there is good demand and premium traffic to be exploited. Look at how nicely SAA is performing on IAD-DKR-IAD in terms of S/F.

b) In this way, both key cities are maintained online and get to be operated on a daily basis each respectively.

As far as GRU is concerned, if it is such a big loss maker, first step to reduce it from 11 weekly to daily and help stabilize the yields there. But yes it should definitely not be cut.

What about the daily PER and JFK services which also I would reckon lose far more than JNB-BOM !

For USA, SAA should just focus on IAD and cut off JFK for cost saving purposes as IAD is a major STAR hub and they exploit it better with beyond UA feed. FYI, SAA carried last year over 60,000 pax alone on IAD-DKR-IAD !

HKG too I dont see any point of SAA continuing to operate there as the competition is intense. They would be better off to SE Asia code sharing out of JNB with fellow STAR partners TG and SQ via their respective hubs.


User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7582 posts, RR: 42
Reply 11, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13886 times:

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
Argentina is not a high growth market. Moreover, the financial states of both flag carriers cannot support linkages.

It is a pity. Argentina is a major commodities producer and it could be a success story if it were in the hands of capable rulers. Buenos Aires could be a major Southern Hemisphere hub of finance and trade.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
as we all know, AR is not a picnic themselves

Absolutely true, but if Mrs. Prez wants AR to launch a flight to some unreasonable destination, she might just get it. She will have a lineup of very nice A332s and A345s ready to be deployed all over.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
similar virtue of being part of a BRIC country

MIST is the new BRIC lol.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
SAA also has NO long-haul fleet replacement for the Airbus A340s which is absolutely going to slaughter them if they don't act fast.

They were planning an order rather soon, no?

Quoting bsbisland (Reply 7):
SAA flies JNB-GRU 11 weekly. If it's really unprofitable it would make more sense to cut a few weekly frequencies before dropping it. And for some reason the airline has not announced any reduction in frequencies.

Yes, maybe yields will adjust upwards if it is scaled down to 7 or 8 weeklies.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offline123 From Bolivia, joined Nov 2003, 745 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 13701 times:

I´ve never been on an empty SAA flight in/out of GRU or HKG.
PEK yes, last flight JNB/PEK there were 2(two) pax in C class and it seemed Y was also quite empty. Question here is, how much cargo is in the hold, remember airlines earn on the main deck and on the cargo deck. In- and Outbound.
Would surprise me if GRU or HKG are axed.
EZE is different, with the bad economic situation of Argentina, can understand low demand on that route - now. That can change any moment though.


User currently offlineDexSwart From Australia, joined Aug 2012, 565 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 13477 times:

JNB - PER is quite successful, I believe.

Along with LHR and I'm assuming the North American routes, what are the most profitable routes for SA?



Durban. Melbourne. Denver. Hong Kong.
User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 13340 times:
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Quoting behramjee (Reply 10):
For USA, SAA should just focus on IAD and cut off JFK for cost saving purposes as IAD is a major STAR hub and they exploit it better with beyond SA)">UA feed. FYI, SAA carried last year over 60,000 pax alone on IAD-DKR-IAD !

Well SAA has been rightsizing the JFK route lately. It is now, seasonally, an a343 again through DKR (westbound). I think there is a pretty good O&D market from NYC to South Africa so I can't imagine they'll want to dump that anytime soon. Couple that with the codeshare with SA)">B6, I imagine SA is not doing completely dreadfully at JFK, at least not enough to cut the route completely.



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User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2161 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 13329 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 10):
For USA, SAA should just focus on IAD and cut off JFK for cost saving purposes as IAD is a major STAR hub and they exploit it better with beyond SA)">UA feed. FYI, SAA carried last year over 60,000 pax alone on IAD-DKR-IAD !

I would be surprised if SAA didn't make money on the JFK route. They seem to have very strong loads in the front and fares are really high.

Quoting 123 (Reply 12):
Question here is, how much cargo is in the hold, remember airlines earn on the main deck and on the cargo deck.

Worldwide cargo market has been very rough lately.

Quoting DexSwart (Reply 13):
Along with LHR and I'm assuming the North American routes, what are the most profitable routes for SA?

I doubt LHR is profitable. Too much ground time. Too much competition.


User currently offlineMD11junkie From Argentina, joined May 2005, 3148 posts, RR: 57
Reply 16, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 13272 times:

Quoting bsbisland (Reply 7):
SAA flies JNB-GRU 11 weekly. If it's really unprofitable it would make more sense to cut a few weekly frequencies before dropping it. And for some reason the airline has not announced any reduction in frequencies.

lol

Quoting AF022 (Reply 8):

If they are losing money to GRU this would be the quickest way to resolve losses.

They are losing money on both. Even with an A330 on SA222/223.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 10):
For USA, SAA should just focus on IAD and cut off JFK for cost saving purposes as IAD is a major STAR hub and they exploit it better with beyond SA)">UA feed. FYI, SAA carried last year over 60,000 pax alone on IAD-DKR-IAD !

JFK has been rerouted through DKR since 27OCT13. Albeit I don't think it's permanent. JFK non-stop is a big money loser.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 9):

i don't believe SA's losses have much to do with the markets or routes they fly to. I think awfully poor management and special interests are the cause.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
Virtually all of SAA's long haul routes are unprofitable

This just proves my point. It points to a deeply rooted problem with the company, not the markets or routes that they serve.

FINALLY! Thank you, Airbazar - it seems you are the only one that has seen where the actual problem is. Welcome to my RU List.

Saludos,



There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
User currently offlineMD11junkie From Argentina, joined May 2005, 3148 posts, RR: 57
Reply 17, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 13244 times:

Quoting 123 (Reply 12):
EZE is different, with the bad economic situation of Argentina, can understand low demand on that route - now. That can change any moment though.

The route has been growing non-stop as well as the yields. It's impressive. GRU, au contraire to logic, has been falling tremendously. What bad economic situation in Argentina?

Quoting AF022 (Reply 15):

I doubt LHR is profitable. Too much ground time. Too much competition.

Exactly.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 15):
I would be surprised if SAA didn't make money on the JFK route. They seem to have very strong loads in the front and fares are really high.

Restricted operations with A340-600. Not making money. You should be surprised.  
Quoting DexSwart (Reply 13):
JNB - PER is quite successful, I believe.
PER isn't a bit of successful as HKG or BOM in terms of LF. I seriously doubt it is in a better financial shape. PER is being kept so that SAA can say that flies to all continents.

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
Of those, EZE is the most politically and economically unstable

Generalizing much?

[Edited 2013-11-07 13:48:55]


There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 18, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 13157 times:

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 16):
JFK has been rerouted through DKR since 27OCT13. Albeit I don't think it's permanent. JFK non-stop is a big money loser.

JFK in the past too I recall was re-routed via ACC with 5th freedom traffic rights but that too got shut.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 15):
I would be surprised if SAA didn't make money on the JFK route. They seem to have very strong loads in the front and fares are really high.

You seem to be forgetting that JNB-JFK is an ultra long haul flight operated with a gas guzzling A340. Apart from LH these days (on certain selected routes only), I dont think so any airline makes a net profit flying an A340 on long haul services! Also JFK-JNB one stop via EU is very cheap on AF/KL in particular if you want to save especially if a family of 4 is flying.

Quoting DexSwart (Reply 13):
Along with LHR and I'm assuming the North American routes, what are the most profitable routes for SA?

Those are within Africa only as the yields, premium demand and shorter flying distance involved helps them here as well as excess baggage revenue.


User currently offlinejsnww81 From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2035 posts, RR: 15
Reply 19, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 13054 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 18):
PER isn't a bit of successful as HKG or BOM in terms of LF. I seriously doubt it is in a better financial shape. PER is being kept so that SAA can say that flies to all continents.

A South African friend of mine refers to the JNB-PER flight as the "Emigration Express." Full of South Africans leaving the country outbound, and returning to visit friends and family on the inbound.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8370 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12701 times:
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Quoting 123 (Reply 12):
never been on an empty SAA flight in/out of GRU or HKG.
PEK yes, last flight JNB/PEK there were 2(two) pax in C class and it seemed Y was also quite empty. Question here is, how much cargo is in the hold, remember airlines earn on the main deck and on the cargo deck. In- and Outbound.
Would surprise me if GRU or HKG are axed.

Peking is being operated to please China, SAA needs to stop being the AR of Africa. Buy or lease some 777 and ditch the 4 engine A340 on AR, they would love some -600 to go with their new ex-Singapore A340-500's. Does flying to Zurich and FRA make sense, FRA perhaps but not every secondary star hub in Europe.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5571 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12659 times:

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 19):
A South African friend of mine refers to the JNB-PER flight as the "Emigration Express." Full of South Africans leaving the country outbound, and returning to visit friends and family on the inbound

That's the story of about 90% of the market between South Africa and Australia. QF JNB-SYD is exactly the same.

I would expect that route to be retained just to connect the South African "diaspora" to home. I doubt its profitable, though. SAA have said in the past that they lose money on the QF codeshare JNB-SYD (which amuses me greatly) so I can't see why they would be rolling in it at PER. Again, it comes down to systemic management issues. SYD-JNB is said to be an absolute gold mine for QF (which is why it amuses me that SAA can't make a profit selling codeshares) and when you look at the fairs between AUS and RSA you can see why it would be profitable. Unfortunately, I don't think that SAA is able to properly realise that potential.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2984 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12650 times:

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 17):
PER isn't a bit of successful as HKG or BOM in terms of LF. I seriously doubt it is in a better financial shape. PER is being kept so that SAA can say that flies to all continents.

Given the profit sharing, metal neutral JBA that SA has with QF, and the fact that QF is making money out of JNB, it's fair to assume that SA is as well. Any route that is turning a profit has to be one of their stellar performers if they really are in such bad shape (which I don't doubt they are).


User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12602 times:
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So, if the Arentinians are complaining about the flight being axed, they have 5 capable aircraft being delivered. Do something about it and start the route yourself!        


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User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2161 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11724 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 18):
You seem to be forgetting that JNB-JFK is an ultra long haul flight operated with a gas guzzling A340. Apart from LH these days (on certain selected routes only), I dont think so any airline makes a net profit flying an A340 on long haul services! Also JFK-JNB one stop via EU is very cheap on AF/KL in particular if you want to save especially if a family of 4 is flying.

if SA is targeting families then they really are in bad shape. ULH cannot work full of families.

My anecdotal evidence is that the flights are full up front very frequently, and that their fares are very high. Even with payload penalty this flight cannot be a dog.


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6203 posts, RR: 30
Reply 25, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 12082 times:
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Quoting EddieDude (Reply 1):
Wow, so with this Argentina has lost its air links with South Africa. First MH quit EZE-CPT and now SA ends EZE-JNB. I wonder if the Argentinian government will push AR to launch service to South Africa. Interesting that GRU is also on the list of destinations to be cut; I would have imagined that JNB-GRU was at least mildly profitable.

Strange indeed because AR flew that route during the 80s. It was first EZE-CPT and then EZE-JNB. IT was a very succesful flight and many Argentines flew the route. Both countries have a lot in common too. The market is there, as you can see how MH and SA kept it. This fact probably speaks more about about SA not being able to manage its markets adequately than the route not working.

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
Absolutely true, but if Mrs. Prez wants AR to launch a flight to some unreasonable destination, she might just get it. She will have a lineup of very nice A332s and A345s ready to be deployed all over.

She was considering a route to Luanda.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 23):
So, if the Arentinians are complaining about the flight being axed, they have 5 capable aircraft being delivered. Do something about it and start the route yourself!

They just might. I´m sure it will be a very succesful one.



MGGS
User currently offlinedcajet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 432 posts, RR: 4
Reply 26, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 11442 times:

Quoting AR385 (Reply 25):
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
Absolutely true, but if Mrs. Prez wants AR to launch a flight to some unreasonable destination, she might just get it. She will have a lineup of very nice A332s and A345s ready to be deployed all over.

She was considering a route to Luanda.

That is really funny, but one, albeit small, detail. It is not true.

Mrs Kirchner is not involved in running AR, neither at the strategic/planning level or the day to day. No one from AR has ever said such nonsense. Where that story grew legs was on a commercial/industrial delegation from Argentina to Angola, with the objective of growing the trade between both nations. The delegation was led by Mrs Kirchner's secretary of commerce, the colorful and much disliked Mr Guillermo Moreno. For the actual flight from EZE to LAD, one of the three 744 that AR had retired from its fleet - LV-AXF, if memory serves, was used for the trip across the South Atlantic as she was waiting for her return to its lessor and eventually retirement under the CA sun.

The Buenos Aires press reported a few weeks ago that since Mr Moreno and his posse alighted in Luanda, trade between Argentina and Angola has... gone down!



"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlinecivetfive From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 120 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 11691 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 20):

there's likely to be a large amount of second-hand 777s from the likes of SQ and EK soon, which an airline like SA could snap up relatively cheaply.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 28, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 10797 times:
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It seems SA pays the price of a limited O&D market and growing competition by Gulf Carriers.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 4):
How on earth can GRU not be profitable for SAA? It is one of the few routes with good aircraft utilization.

Just shows how this forum is biased on saying profitable/non-profitable.
How ? Probably due to the limited size of O&D that makes them rely on too much connections that probably are not on the right fare.
They probably will reduce to a daily flight.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 18):
Those are within Africa only as the yields, premium demand and shorter flying distance involved helps them here as well as excess baggage revenue.

Seems the only markets where they can rely more on O&D.



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User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 29, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 10772 times:

Sad to see another route from EZE being dropped. Looks more as a result of a lack of cooperation and equipment being used than of a lack of logic supporting it being in place.

User currently offlinePATRistar From Brazil, joined Aug 2013, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 30, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 10268 times:

Next year we will have the world cup in Brazil and in 2016 the summer olympic games, If SAA drop the GRU flight TAAG will smile alone with the only link between the sub-ecuatorial Africa to Brazil.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30976 posts, RR: 86
Reply 31, posted (10 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 10185 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
According to South African Department of Public Enterprises, China had "strategic and development reasons” for being retained.

If South Africa's economic relationship with China generates more than $5 million a year, it could very well be worth having SAA absorb the loss in continuing to operate the route.



Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
SAA also has NO long-haul fleet replacement for the Airbus A340s which is absolutely going to slaughter them if they don't act fast.
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
They were planning an order rather soon, no?

SAA Operations wants the Airbus A350, but management wants a competition so they're pushing for Boeing to submit an RFP for the 787 (and I would guess 777X).


User currently offlineirishayes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2188 posts, RR: 15
Reply 32, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 8808 times:

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 17):
Generalizing much?

It's not a generalization if its true. Why should SAA fly a high-CASM aircraft to a no-growth country? MH figured this out last year and canned their EZE ops.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25338 posts, RR: 49
Reply 33, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 8725 times:

Its becoming clear in my view, this "restructuring" is hardly going to be the cleansing the airline needs.

Government clearly rather force airline maintain unprofitable links to BRICS nations for political interest rather than letting commercial realities dictate the route map.

Hope SA population is happy with their tax dollars continue to be plowed into the indebted airline.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
If South Africa's economic relationship with China generates more than $5 million a year, it could very well be worth having SAA absorb the loss in continuing to operate the route.

You might want to re-read.

PEK is losing $30mil.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 34, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 8559 times:

I'm surprised though none of the Chinese carriers fly to South Africa given that its China's biggest trading partner in Africa. A route like PEK-MRU-JNB (CA) or CAN-MRU-JNB (CZ) operated 3/4 times per week using a B772ER would be quite adequate.

User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1459 posts, RR: 2
Reply 35, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 8533 times:

From what I can gather from winter timetable SA service following longhaul markets with weekly schedule.


Europe
Frankfurt - 7x - A346
London - 14x - A332/A340/A346
Munich - 7x - A332/A340/A346

Asia
Beijing - 3x - A346
Hong Kong - 7x - A340/A346
Mumbai - 7x - A332

Americas
Buenos Aires - 3x - A340
New York - 7x - A340/A346
Sao Paulo - 11x - A332/A340/A346
Washington - 7x - A340

Australia
Perth - 7x - A340/A346


User currently offlineAR326 From Argentina, joined Jul 2007, 30 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8235 times:

Here's a detailed analysis that answers a lot of the questions being posed in this thread

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...rting-with-buenos-aires-cut-136900


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6203 posts, RR: 30
Reply 37, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8151 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AR326 (Reply 36):
Here's a detailed analysis that answers a lot of the questions being posed in this thread

I don´t get it. The article says SAA needs to restructure badly to survive but at the same time the government seems to be forcing them to keep routes that are unprofitable due to them being "strategically or politically" important. How can they truly restructure with that heavy hand on top? The only routes that seem to make money are the ones to Europe. Yet they are keeping the others except for EZE? Seems like it´s not going to end well.



MGGS
User currently offlineB-HOP From Hong Kong, joined Nov 2000, 633 posts, RR: 1
Reply 38, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7686 times:

Not surpise they lose money in Hong Kong when the plane sits for 12 hour on a 343 that can't get much cargo from JNB. CX makes money on seafood shipped out from JNB, early am arrival then timed it either onto first flights to Japan/Korea/China and local market to arrive on plates before dinner. That is why despite the price of gas, they still keep 744 on the route, as for pax, a lot of it were Chinese labourer going somewhere else in Africa. Would make sense if they go just Hong Kong and let CA codeshare to Beijing and someone else to Shanghai and move deparrture time a little early ex Hong Kong. In New York, just move to EWR, that is a STAR hub, just my 2 cent.


Live life to max!!!
User currently onlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 39, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7654 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting B-HOP (Reply 38):

EWR is also slot restricted, which may pose an issue for SA. We'd have to see if they could find a pair to allow them to operate the flights. Although, if they could secure slots, EWR might not be a horrible thing for SA. Like you said, the Star hub would help them out a bit, but they'd have to see if the O&D passengers (especially the premium ones) would be willing to make the trek out to EWR.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 40, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7627 times:

Quoting irishayes (Reply 5):
BOM ought to be axed as well. It's simply redundant for SAA to serve this market despite the large volume between South Africa and India - which is frankly far too-yielding and subject to being eaten alive by the GCCs. After forging codeshares with EY and 9W, SA should just abandon serving India on its own metal entirely and route pax via AUH.

= India - RSA is actually does pretty well for high yielding traffic. It just goes via EK.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 10):
a) Operate a daily A346 JNB-BOM-PEK-BOM-JNB and get 5th freedom traffic rights on BOM-PEK-BOM. On this sector, it can code share with both CA and 9W + have a monopoly as no one flies BOM-PEK nonstop for which there is good demand and premium traffic to be exploited. Look at how nicely SAA is performing on IAD-DKR-IAD in terms of S/F.

= I am sorry. This is a terrible idea. They could not make either work on their own, and you want to share a poor 346 and tag it on two mediocre routes?! Local airlines with their POS have not been able to make BOM - PEK work, and you are going to have an airline that clearly can't make each of the local markets work suddenly fly BOM - PEK? This is like 9W somehow thinking they could make PVG - SFO work.

= Besides, as you and I know, getting 5th freedom Africa - India - China is no easy matter   ...

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 33):
Government clearly rather force airline maintain unprofitable links to BRICS nations for political interest rather than letting commercial realities dictate the route map.

= And this is fine. I am going to give a highly controversial suggestion -- why does SAA need to make a profit if it does provide a larger social goal? Is EY or QR making profits?

(This view does not reflect what I think of SAA management)

Saludos,
Alex



Live, and let live.
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 41, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7277 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 40):
I am sorry. This is a terrible idea. They could not make either work on their own, and you want to share a poor 346 and tag it on two mediocre routes?! Local airlines with their POS have not been able to make BOM - PEK work, and you are going to have an airline that clearly can't make each of the local markets work suddenly fly BOM - PEK? This is like 9W somehow thinking they could make PVG - SFO work.

= Besides, as you and I know, getting 5th freedom Africa - India - China is no easy matter ...

FYI, ET flies Africa-India-China since many years...ADD-DEL-PEK previously and now ADD-DEL-HGH. As I too stated earlier, this option of mine too will lose money but it will lose less money versus flying BOM nonstop + 3 weekly PEK nonstop as you are killing 2 birds with one stone and maintaining access to both markets on a daily basis + getting 5th freedom revenue on BOM-PEK-BOM which currently sees 22,000 pax annually flying between the 2 cities.

With a new nonstop daily service available with possible CA/9W code share being too thrown into the mix, demand should in turn be stimulated by 30% at least just from BOM but via 9W's domestic India connectivity help that can further rise potentially.

Also I would have loved to have for operational cost saving reasons an A332 being used for this service instead of the A346 but the on board capacity of the A332 is too small to cater to the needs of both market segments combined in one flight hence why I opted for the A346 as you are getting almost 40% more capacity on board at approximately 17% higher operational costs.

In addition, operating 3 weekly JNB-PEK nonstop is not competitive versus the multiple daily convenient one stop options now available via HKG/BKK/SIN/DXB/DOH/AUH etc.


User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 42, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7170 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 41):
FYI, ET flies Africa-India-China since many years...ADD-DEL-PEK previously and now ADD-DEL-HGH. As I too stated earlier, this option of mine too will lose money but it will lose less money versus flying BOM nonstop + 3 weekly PEK nonstop as you are killing 2 birds with one stone and maintaining access to both markets on a daily basis + getting 5th freedom revenue on BOM-PEK-BOM which currently sees 22,000 pax annually flying between the 2 cities.

= I am well aware of what ET does. You should know that ET has route rights on Africa - India - China. South Africa or (say) Nigeria does not  .

Quoting behramjee (Reply 41):
With a new nonstop daily service available with possible CA/9W code share being too thrown into the mix, demand should in turn be stimulated by 30% at least just from BOM but via 9W's domestic India connectivity help that can further rise potentially.

Also I would have loved to have for operational cost saving reasons an A332 being used for this service instead of the A346 but the on board capacity of the A332 is too small to cater to the needs of both market segments combined in one flight hence why I opted for the A346 as you are getting almost 40% more capacity on board at approximately 17% higher operational costs.

In addition, operating 3 weekly JNB-PEK nonstop is not competitive versus the multiple daily convenient one stop options now available via HKG/BKK/SIN/DXB/DOH/AUH etc.

= Well. You are far more optimistic about these than I am it seems.

Saludos,
Alex



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 43, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7143 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Quoting behramjee (Reply 41):
nonstop is not competitive versus the multiple daily convenient one stop options now available via HKG/BKK/SIN/DXB/DOH/AUH etc.

Not to be pedantic, but some users may construe this statement as fact that TG flies daily between BKK-JNB-BKK, which is not the case.  


Thanks and regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 44, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 7086 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 42):
= I am well aware of what ET does. You should know that ET has route rights on Africa - India - China. South Africa or (say) Nigeria does not .

yes am aware as the Nigeria-India bilateral has not been re-negotiated for over 20+ years LOL . It still is 2 weekly Nigeria-India nonstop flights permitted using nothing larger than an A310 :P Obviously this shall change soon as Nigeria-India market size is as big as Nigeria-China now. FYI, BOM-LOS sees 48,000 pax per year now and DEL-LOS 40,000. Both markets see bigger demand than PEK-LOS (32,000) where as CAN-LOS is 49,000 pax !

As far as South Africa-India bilateral is concerned, I am not aware of the beyond rights, only that SAA is allowed to operate up to 14 flights per week into India with 5600 seats. However there is no harm in lobbying for beyond 5th freedom rights and hoping for a positive outcome. Like I said earlier, I am just merely giving a suggestion and the nitty gritty stuff such as obtaining traffic rights etc is under someone's responsibility to handle.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11655 posts, RR: 60
Reply 45, posted (10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 6999 times:

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 6):
So airline says it identified 4 markets that lose $55mil USD annually and government only allow then to cut 1 route at $5mil savings.

SA is a cancer patient and needs major restructuring, not a little aspirin.

This is where state ownership comes into play. How much income do these four 'loss making' routes directly bring to the South African economy, income which you can say with reasonable certainty would be lost without the flights.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 33):
You might want to re-read.

PEK is losing $30mil.

That's a lot for an airline, but if it generates twice that for the economy, then you can see the rational for keeping it. $30m is one good sized trade deal, it's not difficult to add value back that way.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 495 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6931 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 22):
Given the profit sharing, metal neutral JBA that SA has with QF, and the fact that QF is making money out of JNB, it's fair to assume that SA is as well. Any route that is turning a profit has to be one of their stellar performers if they really are in such bad shape (which I don't doubt they are).

I dont think there is a JBA between SA and QF. IIRC it is a 'hard block' capacity purchase agreement where each airline purchases capacity on the aircraft of the other carrier (at contracted rates) and markets it as its own. If it doesnt sell the seat, it wears the losses. I wouldnt call this a profit share.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 47, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6903 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 46):
I dont think there is a JBA between SA and QF. IIRC it is a 'hard block' capacity purchase agreement where each airline purchases capacity on the aircraft of the other carrier (at contracted rates) and markets it as its own. If it doesnt sell the seat, it wears the losses.

That would be correct. It is a "hard block" capacity purchase agreement. See the following article.

The code-share agreement involves South African Airways pre-purchasing a fixed block of seats on Qantas's services between Sydney and Johannesburg.
The price paid for the seats is determined by the equivalent percentage of Qantas's total costs of a flight. South African Airways carries a loss if it does not sell enough seats to cover the cost of the pre-purchased block of seats.



Qantas wins approval for extension of South African code-share deal


Regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 48, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6883 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 20):
Peking is being operated to please China, SAA needs to stop being the AR of Africa. Buy or lease some 777 and ditch the 4 engine A340

That would be a sure way to kill SAA for good, due to the limitations that the 777 has when flying out of JNB. The one thing they have done right was to keep the A340 as their long haul aircraft. The A340's will eventually be replaced by more capable twins.

Quoting AF022 (Reply 24):
My anecdotal evidence is that the flights are full up front very frequently, and that their fares are very high. Even with payload penalty this flight cannot be a dog.

The problem with SAA is not that the route doesn't generate enough yield to be profitable but that the airline probably doesn't know how to make money even on high yielding routes. And it also has absolutely nothing to do with flying an A346.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
If South Africa's economic relationship with China generates more than $5 million a year, it could very well be worth having SAA absorb the loss in continuing to operate the route.

That's a point worth making. With state run airlines, there's a much larger picture to look at. One could argue that, that is the reason why so many state run airlines don't turn a profit. There are too many ulterior motives and intangibles.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 45):
This is where state ownership comes into play. How much income do these four 'loss making' routes directly bring to the South African economy, income which you can say with reasonable certainty would be lost without the flights.

  

I'm not saying this is an excuse to have a terribly run airline. I'm just saying that when looking at the big picture, the country/government may be making a lot of money somewhere else, as a direct result of keeping unprofitable routes. I don't know that that is the case. I'm just giving an example.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 49, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6780 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 9):
i don't believe SA's losses have much to do with the markets or routes they fly to. I think awfully poor management and special interests are the cause.

I've been flamed before for saying it, but you're 100% correct. If SAA got free fuel and planes they'd still be in the red.

They have received around R17 BILLION in handouts and are still screwing it up. It is just like other parastatals, one way cash flow based on current interests.

And then their is this constant bitching from SAA about an inefficient fleet. We've heard it all before. The 742/3 was a gas guzzler. Got the 744. The 742/3/4 was a gas guzzler. Got the A343/6. Now they are gas guzzlers. Got the A332. And want A350.

Same on short haul fleet. Chopping and changing. A30B/B732. Then A320. Then B738. Then A319/B738. Now A319/A320.

Go ask Comair Ltd how to turn a profit with old metal. They only (relatively) recently started adding B738 to their stables.



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1022 posts, RR: 0
Reply 50, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6751 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 48):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 20):
Peking is being operated to please China, SAA needs to stop being the AR of Africa. Buy or lease some 777 and ditch the 4 engine A340

That would be a sure way to kill SAA for good, due to the limitations that the 777 has when flying out of JNB. The one thing they have done right was to keep the A340 as their long haul aircraft. The A340's will eventually be replaced by more capable twins.

Would somebody (ferpe?) please note the lift capability of the SAA A346 (42J, 275Y) compared to a Delta 777-200LR (45J, 36Y+, 188Y)? Delta operates from JNB to ATL, 8439 statute miles as a great circle route, farther than any present SAA non-stop routes.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 51, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6519 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 50):
Would somebody (ferpe?) please note the lift capability of the SAA A346 (42J, 275Y) compared to a Delta 777-200LR (45J, 36Y+, 188Y)? Delta operates from JNB to ATL, 8439 statute miles as a great circle route, farther than any present SAA non-stop routes.

I'm not sure what you're trying to get to but this topic has been discussed here on a.net ad nauseam, but not even the mighty 77L wil loutperform the A346 out of JNB. However, for Delta JNB is just one route in their very expansive route network and the 77L is just a small subfleet in DL's very large fleet. The cost of operating these very expensive "ULH" routes is absorbed systemwide. For SAA, a much smaller airline, every long haul route would need the performance of the 77L. To put it into perspective and according to fellow anetter Zeke, even the lowly A343 can outperform the 77W out of JNB.
SAA To Start Direct JNB - Beijing Flights (by saababy Sep 30 2011 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1459 posts, RR: 2
Reply 52, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6483 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 48):
And it also has absolutely nothing to do with flying an A346.

Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346 - a marginal route may become profitable.

There are two sides to a balance sheet.

Operating less then economic model punishes the cost portion with higher burden.

As Air Canada said when it rid itself of the A343 for the A333 instead, overnight it saw a 15% cash operating cost benefit. That is huge for a route in an industry where margins are often single digits.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 53, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6407 times:

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 52):
Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346

SAA's major finance drain isn't through its fleet's fuel consumption. Do you know how much fuel 17 BILLION rand is?

Inside SAA is a form of cancer. It needs chemotherapy, or have the tumour cut out. Both unlikely. These turn-around schemes have been ongoing for decades. Always the promises of profitability when a new fleet arrives, yet never materialise.

Until then it will continue to be a loss making machine relying on government handouts as it has done for the last decade and a half. Or two decades, I have lost count.

I stand by my opinion that its fleet choices will not dictate profitability or not.



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25338 posts, RR: 49
Reply 54, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6369 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
Inside SAA is a form of cancer.

Sure SAA might be a cancer, but inefficiency in every area eats away at this.

If your cost to produce a product is too high, this needs to be tackled clearly. And a less then efficient fleet adds to the bleed.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 55, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6342 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
Sure SAA might be a cancer, but inefficiency in every area eats away at this.

If your cost to produce a product is too high, this needs to be tackled clearly. And a less then efficient fleet adds to the bleed.

Correct. And unfortunately SAA's major inefficiency isn't its fuel burn. If it was, then just perhaps, at least one of their fleet renewal and turn-around strategies would have worked. But they have all been a stellar failure and led to more government bailouts.

However they fail to address the real issues and just beg the government for more money when they run broke again.

Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineMD11junkie From Argentina, joined May 2005, 3148 posts, RR: 57
Reply 56, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6229 times:

Quoting irishayes (Reply 32):

You are clearly not familiar with the airlines' route numbers and are repeating what others say (which doesn't make it true).

EZE has grown a lot (and certainly out grown the other routes) in 3 years, while SAO constantly declining.
Not a growth market? Sorry, not true.

Saludos.

[Edited 2013-11-09 13:02:13]


There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 57, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6178 times:

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 52):
Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346 - a marginal route may become profitable.

Poorer in what way? No twin aircraft performs better out of JNB than an A346. The problem isn't the aircraft. LH makes plenty of money flying A343's and A346's and they don't even need the Hot and High performance. Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period. Unless they decide to get a fleet of even more expensive and less capable 77L, or go overboard with 748i's or A380's.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
SAA's major finance drain isn't through its fleet's fuel consumption. Do you know how much fuel 17 BILLION rand is?

  


User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 58, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5723 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 44):
yes am aware as the Nigeria-India bilateral has not been re-negotiated for over 20+ years LOL . It still is 2 weekly Nigeria-India nonstop flights permitted using nothing larger than an A310 :P Obviously this shall change soon as Nigeria-India market size is as big as Nigeria-China now. FYI, BOM-LOS sees 48,000 pax per year now and DEL-LOS 40,000. Both markets see bigger demand than PEK-LOS (32,000) where as CAN-LOS is 49,000 pax !

= Again, I am well aware of the numbers, and the airline trying to seek a change in Nigeria - India bilateral with their 1-stop option   ...

However, O&D numbers are just the base of good network planning. Again, I would loved to be proved wrong and greet an airline doing the routings you think are feasible ... am sure that a 330 can be freed up somewhere ... or there is always the IT 345's   ...

Quoting behramjee (Reply 44):
As far as South Africa-India bilateral is concerned, I am not aware of the beyond rights, only that SAA is allowed to operate up to 14 flights per week into India with 5600 seats. However there is no harm in lobbying for beyond 5th freedom rights and hoping for a positive outcome. Like I said earlier, I am just merely giving a suggestion and the nitty gritty stuff such as obtaining traffic rights etc is under someone's responsibility to handle.

= SA bilateral does not allow this. I would say that if SA really wanted 5th freedom in India, they would get it. SA - India are very close politically.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
I stand by my opinion that its fleet choices will not dictate profitability or not.

= Agreed 100%.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 55):
Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...

= Yes. But, I do think that you can minimize the bleeding in the interim. Too bad Siza Mizimela had to go ...

Saludos,
Alex



Live, and let live.
User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1459 posts, RR: 2
Reply 59, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5730 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Poorer in what way?

Its well know the economics of the A346 lag behind. Just look at its lackluster sales record.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period.

So what do the 40+ other airlines that serve JNB do ?? Best I can see only 1 other carrier runs A346 to JNB.


At the end SA does not operate in a vacuum.

They must compete globally against all these other airlines, and being handicapped with fleet that is less cost efficient only adds to its problems. This is might be an added €1 or €10,000 cost per flight.

Ultimately SA needs reform many things, but implementing a more cost efficient fleet is certainly part of the equation.


User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 60, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5471 times:

Just a fyi in case anyone is wondering what the passenger flown numbers (O&D) from South Africa to SE Asia, there are as follows for JAN-DEC 2012

Source: IATA MarketIS Plus

PEK-JNB 49,000
PEK-CPT 11,000

CAN-JNB 10,000
CAN-CPT 2,000

HKG-JNB 75,000
HKG-CPT 18,000

SIN-JNB 44,000
SIN-CPT 16,000

BKK-JNB 54,000
BKK-CPT 14,000

KUL-JNB 20,000
KUL-CPT 9,000


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 61, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5408 times:

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
Its well know the economics of the A346 lag behind. Just look at its lackluster sales record.

Not from an airport at nearly 6,000ft alt. If you show me the numbers that prove it, I'll have to agree with you but for now I'll go with someone who has actually flown out of JNB. See reply 15 from Zeke, on this thread:
SAA To Start Direct JNB - Beijing Flights (by saababy Sep 30 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
So what do the 40+ other airlines that serve JNB do ?? Best I can see only 1 other carrier runs A346 to JNB.

The vast majority of the 40+ airlines do not fly long haul out of JNB. It's not an A346 vs. the world issue. It's a quad vs. twin issue. Most other airlines are not based at an airport that is 5,600ft above sea level. They can live with the "restrictions" of a single route. Nevertheless, the majority of carriers operating 5,000+nm routes out of JNB fly quads: AF, BA, VS, LH, QF. Only CX and SA)">DL fly a twin out of JNB.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
Ultimately SA needs reform many things, but implementing a more cost efficient fleet is certainly part of the equation.

Maybe that will come with the next generation of twins, assuming they can come up with the money to pay for them. But for right now, they have the most cost effective long haul fleet that they can possibly get for an airline based in JNB.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 55):
Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...

  


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 62, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5392 times:
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Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period.

Obviously the A346's will not be removed until replacements have been found, just like when the 747 fleet were progressively retired in favor of the A340 fleet.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 61):
AF, BA, VS, LH, QF. Only CX and SA)">DL fly a twin out of JNB.
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).  

Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-10 06:22:46]


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1022 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5312 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 51):
I'm not sure what you're trying to get to but this topic has been discussed here on a.net ad nauseam, but not even the mighty 77L wil loutperform the A346 out of JNB.

I called out to ferpe specifically, as he has shown an ability to write concisely with data in a way that you (and zeke, in the link you gave) do not.

Clearly a 77L could operate all the long-haul routes of SAA today; all are shorter than JNB-ATL. If average yields are a problem it's not clear an aircraft with a lower passenger count is a handicap.

Sure, DL could bury losses in the ~4000 other flights a day it (and DL Connection carriers) operates but DL lacks sentimentality; it makes frequest adjustments to the route network and quickly kills off underperformers. The fact that DL has a variety of ULH routes to obtain decent utilization of its 10 77Ls is part of the argument that small carriers shouldn't try to play at ULH. Too small subfleets, and assignment to routes that don't need the capability, lead to non-competitive costs.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 64, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5125 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 58):
= Yes. But, I do think that you can minimize the bleeding in the interim.

I disagree on the principle that I pay South African taxes. Why should billions be spent to save hundreds of thousands due to a fuel burn delta. There is simply more wrong with SAA than just "buying a new fleet to solve our troubles".

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
Obviously the A346's will not be removed until replacements have been found

Certain routes will need a quad. Down to Oz and South America. Unless SA will be happy to make more of a loss running a twin to stay within the etops zones. Ask Virgin Oz how that turned out for them on the mighty big twin super fuel miser?



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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 65, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 5087 times:
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Quoting PATRistar (Reply 30):
Next year we will have the world cup in Brazil and in 2016 the summer olympic games, If SAA drop the GRU flight TAAG will smile alone with the only link between the sub-ecuatorial Africa to Brazil.

As for the Olympics, TAAG Is already happy as they fly to the place where action will happen. I doubt SA will cut any flights to Sao Paulo right now ahead of the World Cup demand.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).

It seems foreign airlines know how to manage yields better.

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 56):
EZE has grown a lot (and certainly out grown the other routes) in 3 years, while SAO constantly declining.
Not a growth market? Sorry, not true.

Right. Argentina in fact is growing but political side has been a problem for foreign investors. But i do expect a nice turnaround soon ! Hope to see the old days of Buenos Aires back !



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 66, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5037 times:
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Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 64):
Ask Virgin Oz how that turned out for them on the mighty big twin super fuel miser?

That is true, I hear what you are saying. However keep in mind that they flew MEL-JNB-MEL whilst SA only fly JNB-PER-JNB. Surely SA would take less of "a hit" with regards to ETOPS than VA did?


Thanks and regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 67, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 4883 times:

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 66):
Surely SA would take less of "a hit" with regards to ETOPS than VA did?

Hi SA7700! Yes that is a valid point you make.



Herewith the differences between MEL and PER. ETOPS 120 180 and 240 shaded in. Even at ETOPS 180 they will have a significant detour, not factoring in if the winds are strong. Sometimes I see the QF Jumbo routing in over PE they had to go so far south to keep out of the headwinds...

I am not convinced a twin will ever be very successful on those routes unless SAA can get at least 330 min etops...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 68, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 4793 times:
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Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 67):
Sometimes I see the QF Jumbo routing in over PE they had to go so far south to keep out of the headwinds...

Thanks for the info Speedbird128 and the GCM, it is very interesting! I had no idea QF went as far South as PE. When I was on 63/64 (quite a few times), we always routed in via Richards Bay.

Thanks again and take care,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 69, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 4704 times:

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 68):
we always routed in via Richards Bay.

When I controlled FAJS Oceanic - as it was then called - I sometimes (I wouldn't be able to quantify the percentage of flights) had the QF Jumbo file more south than 60S. I remember more than once having them report the polar cap in sight... It must have been quite something. I have never had the luck of flying anything remotely that interesting LOL!

I have a picture somewhere of the radar screen with QF overhead/near PE...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 70, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4330 times:
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Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 69):
I remember more than once having them report the polar cap in sight... It must have been quite something. I have never had the luck of flying anything remotely that interesting LOL!

When we drifted towards Antarctica on the daylight flights from SYD-JNB the flight deck would alert us pax on numerous occasions that icebergs where now visible. It sure was spectacular to see and experience - almost surreal.  


In other news SAA has released this info, intending to continue to serve the Argentinian market through partnerships:

South African Airways (SAA), the South African national carrier, announced its full commitment to continue providing travel options to and from Argentina.

Although SAA will discontinue its own operated flights to Buenos Aires on the 28th of March next year, SAA customers will still be able to travel between both countries through numerous flights operated by SAA partners in South America.


SAA to continue serving the Argentinean market through partnerships


I hope this works out for them.

Thanks and regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2984 posts, RR: 2
Reply 71, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4282 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 46):
I dont think there is a JBA between SA and QF. IIRC it is a 'hard block' capacity purchase agreement where each airline purchases capacity on the aircraft of the other carrier (at contracted rates) and markets it as its own. If it doesnt sell the seat, it wears the losses. I wouldnt call this a profit share.

Apologies, I don't know what I was thinking! I must be getting my QF partnerships mixed up (which isn't hard to do these days)...


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 72, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 4209 times:
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Quoting qf002 (Reply 71):
Apologies, I don't know what I was thinking! I must be getting my QF partnerships mixed up

Not a problem at all. They remain codeshare partners and handle each other's pax in SYD and JNB. QF make use of SA lounges in JNB and not those of OneWorld partner BA. On the other end of the spectrum SA make use of the QF lounges in SYD and PER and not Star Alliance partner lounges.

Strange but true.  

Regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 73, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4053 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 63):
Clearly a 77L could operate all the long-haul routes of SAA today; all are shorter than JNB-ATL. If average yields are a problem it's not clear an aircraft with a lower passenger count is a handicap.

They could but at what cost? You can fly the 77L LHR-SYD if you really want to. That's not my argument. My argument is about the cost and revenue potential. You're focusing only on the daily operational cost, and ignoring the acquisition costs. You're also ignoring payload. Unless you know how much payload SAA carries on those flights, you can't tell for sure if the 77L is an appropriate aircraft. But most of all you're ignoring the fact that the 77L was only available after 2006.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 63):
Sure, SA)">DL could bury losses in the ~4000 other flights a day it (and SA)">DL Connection carriers) operates but SA)">DL lacks sentimentality; it makes frequest adjustments to the route network and quickly kills off underperformers. The fact that SA)">DL has a variety of ULH routes to obtain decent utilization of its 10 77Ls is part of the argument that small carriers shouldn't try to play at ULH. Too small subfleets, and assignment to routes that don't need the capability, lead to non-competitive costs.

But SA)">DL's network is far, far greater than SA's. The cost of operating a very expensive subfleet of 77L aircraft is easier to bare, than for a small airline like SA. Commonality plays a much more significant role in a small airline. SA)">DL already had the 772 in their fleet. Unless you are suggesting that SAA should have replaced their entire fleet of A340 which were only about 4 years old, when the 77L became available. Talk about a bad financial decision. In addition, the A340's probably came at an extremely good price since they were acquired during the post 9/11 "recession" and IIRC, at least some were SR's canceled frames.

So when you factor everything, the challenges of operating from JNB, the revenue potential on very long routes, the acquision costs, the offerings from Boeing (the 77L was not available), I have no problem saying that the A340 selection was one of, if not the only real good decision that SAA has made in the last 2 decades  
Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).

Right but the twins are the exception. Certainly in the Summer months. If you look at today's departures, anyone who has an available quad in their fleet is using it. That speaks volumes as to what aircraft is better out of JNB.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 74, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3945 times:
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Quoting airbazar (Reply 73):
Right but the twins are the exception. Certainly in the Summer months. If you look at today's departures, anyone who has an available quad in their fleet is using it. That speaks volumes as to what aircraft is better out of JNB.

That is sort of a broad generalization. Why is EK, QR, DL, EY, MS, BA (all flights), TK, TG, etc. not using their available quads out of JNB to various worldwide destinations then?

I don't wish to split hairs, but the time is going to come when quads will be replaced by twins out of JNB. Whether you like it or not. I have got absolutely nothing against quads, whether they are Airbus or Boeing.  


Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:45:29]


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 75, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3880 times:

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 74):
That is sort of a broad generalization. Why is EK, QR, SA)">DL, EY, MS, BA (all flights), TK, TG, etc. not using their available quads out of JNB to various worldwide destinations then?

You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 74):
I don't wish to split hairs, but the time is going to come when quads will be replaced by twins out of JNB. Whether you like it or not. I have got absolutely nothing against quads, whether they are Airbus or Boeing.

Agree 100% and as I said above, it will happen with the next generation of twins. For now, anyone who can fly a quad out of JNB on those long routes, is using a quad. I would be shocked if TG's and SQ's 772ER flights are not restricted out of JNB.

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:52:31]

User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 76, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3708 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 75):
You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

It's too late to edit my posts above and I just realized that I mixed up the nm/mi distances. 5,000+ for routes to Europe would be in Miles, not Nautical Miles. That's my mistake. Nevertheless, my point still remains and that is, routes to CDG/LHR/FRA are all at least 1000nm longer than DOH/DXB/CAI/AUH and even IST which is just barely 4,000nm.


User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 77, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3558 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 75):
You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

As recently as August BA was sending the 777 into JNB. Air France also operated the 77W into JNB in lieu of the 747s they had in their fleet. This could suggest that the choice of the A380 is done in the interests of capacity.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 78, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3360 times:
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Quoting airbazar (Reply 76):
Nevertheless, my point still remains and that is, routes to CDG/LHR/FRA are all at least 1000nm longer than DOH/DXB/CAI/AUH and even IST which is just barely 4,000nm.


I totally hear what you are saying, but just to recap...

Keep SA236/237 (JNB-LHR-JNB) in mind. It is a daily A332. (5620mi; 4884nm).

Also the daily KL 592/591 (772) between JNB-AMS-JNB. (5583mi, 4852nm).

Both twins from JNB to Europe / UK over 5000mi.


Have a great day. Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-11 23:13:25]


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 79, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3221 times:

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 78):
Keep SA236/237 (JNB-LHR-JNB) in mind. It is a daily A332. (5620mi; 4884nm).

But SAA fly empty LOL!   

Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR? I'd almost be certain that it won't manage full pax and cargo out of JNB... Is SA operating the 242t version?

I know airbus quote 7200nm as max range, but I don't believe that figure is for full pax and full cargo at 5558' take-off altitude on a 25+C day...

I'm not saying they definitely take a payload hit - I was just wondering if they do...?



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 80, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3179 times:
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Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR?

I'm not sure - I can't say without a doubt whether they take a payload hit or not on JNB-LHR. That being said they operate A330-243's with RR Trent 772B-60's.

Have a great day,


SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4784 posts, RR: 43
Reply 81, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3096 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
I know airbus quote 7200nm as max range, but I don't believe that figure is for full pax and full cargo at 5558' take-off altitude on a 25+C day...

fyi whenever looking at the published stated range of an aircraft by Airbus and Boeing, you can easily deduct 15% to gain a more accurate outlook !

[Edited 2013-11-12 01:47:46]

User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 82, posted (10 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 2823 times:

Quoting luckyone (Reply 77):
As recently as August BA was sending the 777 into JNB. Air France also operated the 77W into JNB in lieu of the 747s they had in their fleet. This could suggest that the choice of the A380 is done in the interests of capacity.

August is Winter in JNB. That and the lighter loads should explain that. Again, my point is not that the twin can't fly the route. My point is that a quad has greater payload capacity and thus greater revenue potential. Now, this being SAA, like I said in replies 9 and 48, I doubt that even with a full payload and high yields they would be able to make money  
Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR?

I'm curious about that too. My assumption is that with a second daily operating an A346, any cargo that can't make it onto the A332 can go on the A346, so they could operate the A332 with nothing by pax and their bags if it comes to that.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 83, posted (10 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 2809 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 82):
I doubt that even with a full payload and high yields they would be able to make money  

That's fact. Not supposition. They wouldn't have needed 17 billion in bailout money to keep going otherwise...

Quoting airbazar (Reply 82):
they could operate the A332 with nothing by pax and their bags if it comes to that.

I'd be surprised if this isn't what they are doing.... I just don't see the 332 having the legs for pax+bags+cargo...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1459 posts, RR: 2
Reply 84, posted (10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 2648 times:

The A330 has been going to LHR for 2-years now, summer and winter.
Also MUC has been getting the A330 this year as well, same with Sao Paulo as well, while BOM is an all A330 dest.

So if the A330 was so bad, no reason to send it. SA could easily use one of the 343/346s and keep the A330 close to home.

This argument that A340 or a quad is the only viable for JNB is yesterdays argument. Same with those nostalgic folks that hang onto the 744. Those are yesterdays planes.

SA needs more modern cost efficient fleet and move beyond the 340 ASAP.

I knew the 340 was dead when colleagues at Airbus stopped making presentations for the model over 10-years ago and instead place the 330 option in front of customers. Prior they always try to show both choices and sell the family concept.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 85, posted (10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 2606 times:

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
So if the A330 was so bad, no reason to send it. SA could easily use one of the 343/346s and keep the A330 close to home.

That's exactly what they are doing, relatively speaking. LHR is the only really long A332 route and they have an A346 as backup. Even JNB-GRU is barely 4,000nm.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
This argument that A340 or a quad is the only viable for JNB is yesterdays argument. Same with those nostalgic folks that hang onto the 744. Those are yesterdays planes.

No one is saying that. The argument I am making is that a quad has better performance out of JNB and SAA still benefits from having a fleet of quads not only because of the altitude but because of their flights to S.America and Australia.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
SA needs more modern cost efficient fleet and move beyond the 340 ASAP.

Agree. But who's going to pay for them? And assuming they can pay for them, I still say they would lose money hand over fist which brings us back to the begining of this thread. It is not about the airplane.

[Edited 2013-11-12 10:39:07]

User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25338 posts, RR: 49
Reply 86, posted (10 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2535 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 85):
That's exactly what they are doing, relatively speaking. LHR is the only really long A332 route and they have an A346 as backup. Even JNB-GRU is barely 4,000nm.

They also do MUC on the 330 somedays as well. Thats a pretty haul.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 85):
It is not about the airplane.

Airplane is certainly part of the cost problem. If your seat cost are being handicapped by flying less then efficient model, your bottom line will see the burden.

According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 87, posted (10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2461 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):

Airplane is certainly part of the cost problem. If your seat cost are being handicapped by flying less then efficient model, your bottom line will see the burden.

According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.

No my logic is that the revenue potential of the existing fleet is greater than the revenue potential if they incur the cost of upgrading the fleet to newer but soon to be old generation twins. The way SAA is run, no amount of fuel burn savings will ever make up for the cost of a full fleet refresh.

I really don't want to start this again   I don't believe that there are more efficient planes in that size category for routes out of JNB to Europe and no one here has provided any evidence to the contrary so we'll have to agree to disagree and leave it at that. The A343 and A346 lift significantly more payload than any twin (except may the 77L vs. A343), out of JNB to Europe, which should make up for the higher fuel consumption. If SAA can't generate enough revenue to make money on their A343 and A346 routes the problem is not the plane, it's the airline's management who can't fill the plane. Or maybe they do fill the plane up but waste money somewhere else.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 88, posted (10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2465 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):
According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.

Yes they should have kept the SP fleet. If I as a taxpayer are going to throw away billions of my hard earned money in handouts, at least let me see a SP flying.

I agree entirely with airbazar. Its not about the fleet that is causing SAA financial hardship. As I have said before, the fuel-burn delta between these fleets is not enough to have caused a deficit of R17 BILLION. That is pathetic airline management and a inefficient workforce. Perhaps with a new fleet they will get a new staffing. But that won't happen.

So SA will continue to lose billions with no accountability and just blame it on their fleet. Lufthansa most certainly don't seem to be billions in debt due to their big A346 and B744 fleets, yet SAA see fit to say its their reason. I don't accept that.



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineSA744 From South Africa, joined Nov 2005, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 89, posted (10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2219 times:

Yes it is a very sad state of affairs for SAA. If I think about it I can see SAA dropping longhaul altogether, focus on regional and domestic. Maybe see more carriers flying into JNB if SAA decide to relent of their hold on slots and the ridiculous money they charge for parking slots. One of the reasons we dont see more foreign carriers here. My 2 cents
Regards
Chris


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Reply 90, posted (10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2198 times:
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Quoting SA744 (Reply 89):
Maybe see more carriers flying into JNB if SAA decide to relent of their hold on slots and the ridiculous money they charge for parking slots. One of the reasons we dont see more foreign carriers here.

IMMHO it is due to yields. Many carriers have entered and exited over the years - most of the time due to poor yields and as far as I can recall, never due to slots or parking fees. I stand corrected.  


Regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 91, posted (10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2205 times:

Quoting SA744 (Reply 89):
If I think about it I can see SAA dropping longhaul altogether, focus on regional and domestic.

Hi Chris!

One of the past CEO's had said this was his plan all along - i don't remember which CEO as they seemed to have changed quite often. However I remember a statement saying he wanted to can the european flights in their entirety, and focus on regional growth.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):
Thats a pretty haul

Well a new A330 has a pretty good advertised range - however I don't know what that translates to out of JNB.

Does anybody here have info wrt to the loading of these A332's on long-haul? I am not convinced it will make it to Europe with any meaningful load beyond pax and bags, but I am most happy to be proven wrong. It would be handy to have some real figures so we could actually debate the performance of the A332/A343/A346 on a JNB-LHR/MUC segment with real facts.

In my time at JNB I once had a chat with the crew of the 77L and they had the almost unique problem of tyre rotation speed that limited their TOW. However I believe the A330/A340 have lower Vr speeds so that doesn't come into play, its OEO / V2 / second segment climb/Vfs/Third Segment limitations.

So far we have established that the A332 can definitely make it to Europe. But can it make it with a profitable load? That's the million rand question. Both LHR and FRA routes have the ability to send the cargo on the partner city (in the case of A346 to FRA) and partner flight (in the case of the A340 to LHR) to make up the "lost" revenue. However if both of those routes/countries were solely A332 would we be seeing bigger red numbers or route axings?

EDIT: Grammar, and not to say that the 77L is immune from OEO and ensuing complications limitations.

[Edited 2013-11-13 00:35:59]


A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8362 posts, RR: 10
Reply 92, posted (10 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2005 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 91):
So far we have established that the A332 can definitely make it to Europe. But can it make it with a profitable load? That's the million rand question

I'd say it's more like a 5 cent question   No way it makes money. SAA has one of the lowest seat desities you'll ever find in an A332 (only 222 seats), with only J and Y. No F and no Y+. It is basically a low density leisure config airplane flying a 5,000nm route and unable to uplift much if any cargo. So the revenue side is incredibly limited to begin with. I would be shocked if they are making money on these routes. The good news for SAA's management is that they dont have to work very hard make money because they are limited by the airplane's capability so they have extra time to play golf, or rugby, or what it is that they do over there.
I have a family member of mine who has worked in the airline industry his entire life, both as a pilot and in operations, and he always tells me that the difference between a big plane and a smaller plane amounts to how hard management has to work to reach its full potential. And I believe that, especially after seeing how EK is able to fill all of those A380's seemingly out of thin air  


User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 93, posted (10 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1749 times:

Rather than drop EZE, I rather thought they would be adding to their South American network: GIG and SCL in particular.

User currently offlineFyano773 From Mexico, joined Mar 2004, 784 posts, RR: 1
Reply 94, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1660 times:

Quoting AR326 (Reply 36):
Here's a detailed analysis that answers a lot of the questions being posed in this thread http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...36900

According to that article, SAA is playing a new role in the airline biz:


SAA is committed to staying in Star and using Star’s European members to provide coverage in Europe. But SAA is also open to forging new European partnerships outside Star, as it has done with Etihad and JetBlue. The strategy essentially is to be a prostitute and to go to bed with whichever carrier is the best fit in each market, regardless of alliance membership.


...nice wording by CAPA!

:D

[Edited 2013-11-13 17:03:34]

User currently offlineaal151heavy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 99 posts, RR: 4
Reply 95, posted (10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 1573 times:
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I have flown on this flight, SA 226 from JNB to EZE. Sad to see it go.  

It was a memorable flight in that it was a South Atlantic crossing (unique routing), the service was excellent, and I flew on ZS-SXD, the one in the 2012 Summer Olympics scheme.


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Photo © Szabo Gabor



When I flew on this flight May of this year, I was in Business Class on an award ticket. There were only five other passengers in Business. As it turned out, the person seated behind me was the captain's companion, so I doubt she paid for her ticket. So that left potentially only four fare-paying Business passengers. The second Business cabin was curtained off with lights off...eerie to see - it was like a ghost cabin!

Back of the 'Bus was filled with Chinese tourists - I surmised all from the same tour group. They all connected to JNB from HKG from somewhere in China. I was surprised to see this as I would have expected a connection through North America would have been the more efficient routing. But given US visa requirements, TSA hassles, etc, it might have been worthwhile to connect via Africa. It was funny to hear recorded announcements in Mandarin flying on a South African airline to Argentina!

Granted this was only one flight. Nevertheless, I doubt SAA made money that day flying a tour group and four fare-paying Business passengers.


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