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AR To Abandon Oceania, LA/QF Monopoly  
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 22301 times:

I have no clue whether this topic was already discussed in the ex-SQ A340-500 thread. AR has, apparently, decided to drop its routes to AKL and SYD, leaving the entire market to oneworld members, LA and QF, effective April 2, 2014:

http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...as-argentinas-dejara-de-volar.html
http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...-de-santiago-se-convertira-en.html

En vivo desde SCL is a well-known regional blog covering commercial aviation in Chile and the southern cone region.

I would be [pleasantly] shocked if AR were actually focusing on financial criteria when making commercial decisions, rather than following directives from its controlling shareholder, the Argentine Republic.



There is an official announcement from AR as well:

http://www.aerolineas.com.ar/es-AR/Prensa/ComunicadosPorA%C3%B1o/2013

The announcement lays out plans for 2014

[Edited 2013-11-09 12:38:50 by SA7700]

145 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 956 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 22201 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Thread starter):
I would be [pleasantly] shocked if AR were actually focusing on financial criteria when making commercial decisions, rather than following directives from its controlling shareholder, the Argentine Republic.

Executive teams that ignore the wishes of shareholders have poor longevity in position.

AR's announcement, along with SAA's long-haul cutbacks, just shows that ULH flying is difficult, especially for carriers that lack economies of scale.


User currently offlineVCy From Cyprus, joined Dec 2012, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 22029 times:
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Shame to see EZE losing another long haul service! After SAA, Malaysian and QF now AR decides to abandon their longest route too. Who would of thought a route operated by 2 carriers up until recently would now not be served by any! Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

User currently offlineLatinPlane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2710 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 21954 times:

Sad news. AR has been flying its famous transpolar route since June of 1980.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqxLe8OPwvE

An old video showing one of AR's 742 making its regular tech stop in Rio Gallegos before continuing on to Auckland and Sydney circa 92/93.


User currently onlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6128 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 21802 times:
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Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 1):
AR's announcement, along with SAA's long-haul cutbacks, just shows that ULH flying is difficult, especially for carriers that lack economies of scale.

That route used to be extremely successful for AR. I guess the end of their monopoly on the route really hurt them.

Quoting VCy (Reply 2):
Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

It hasn´t. Rather the offer has increased and AR can´t compete.



MGGS
User currently offlinezkncj From New Zealand, joined Nov 2005, 489 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 21760 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Thread starter):
leaving the entire market to oneworld members, LA and QF, effective April 2, 2014

NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2915 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 21170 times:

Quoting VCy (Reply 2):
Who would of thought a route operated by 2 carriers up until recently would now not be served by any! Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

Don't forget QF dropped EZE in favour of Santiago because of LAN's hub at SCL. Also the Argentine Govt didn't allow QF to interline with LAN Argentina.

It will be interesting to see if QF/LAN move to increase services. QF is already operating a 4th weekly service over the Christmas period and with the withdrawl of AR there is probably some more traffic to be captured. If the Argentine Govt also allowed QF to code with LAN Argentina they may find QF returning to EZE as well.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 21086 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 5):
NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.

NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 20747 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 5):
NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.

NZ is, indeed, carefully evaluating launching a route to South America. However, as a Star Alliance member, neither EZE nor SCL offer good alliance connections. AR is a new Sky Team member, while LA is, of course, a founding member of oneworld.

LIM may offer NZ the best alternative, as it is home to Avianca Peru [formerly TACA]. Avianca offers non-stop connections to all major markets in Latin America from LIM, including BOG, EZE, MVD, GRU, ASU, VVI, UIO, GYE, SJO, SAL, HAV, CCS, POA, GIG and even SCL via H2.

Developing LIM is a major focus for Avianca and its subsidiary carriers and could offer NZ the best option for a route to South America. It would be wonderful to have non-stop flights to Oceania from both SCL and LIM...


User currently offlinezkncj From New Zealand, joined Nov 2005, 489 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 20615 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):

NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

The main limiting factor would be the aircraft the 772/789 can't do it, the only aircraft that could do it are the 77W and 744s. The 744s are leaving in April and Sept and the 77W are fully used up on AKL-LAX-LHR and AKL-LAX and soon to be AKL-SFO with the extra 2x 77W arriving.

The only real option for for a 2014 start would be to keep the 744 in service, until they could get another 2x 77W.


User currently offlineMilesDependent From Australia, joined Sep 2001, 856 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 20507 times:

If trying to get an award seat on QF is any indication of how successful a route is... SYD-SCL must be very good for Qantas. Absolutely impossible to find an award seat on the SYD-SCL. QF just do not release them, even 12 months out on day of release - nothing. With AR pulling out of SYD, I imagine it will get even worse.

Do QF have the rights to go daily?


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 20260 times:

Quoting MilesDependent (Reply 10):
If trying to get an award seat on QF is any indication of how successful a route is... SYD-SCL must be very good for Qantas. Absolutely impossible to find an award seat on the SYD-SCL. QF just do not release them, even 12 months out on day of release - nothing. With AR pulling out of SYD, I imagine it will get even worse.

Do QF have the rights to go daily?

Hi Miles, QF and LA have a very tight relationship, with SCL offering excellent connections throughout the continent. QF is increasing frequencies from 3x to 4x, effective next month, for the southern summer season, while LA offers 6x, practically daily service, on the SCL-SYD route.

Now, with AR leaving the scene, QF will most likely want to increase service on the route, perhaps keeping 4x year-round, or even 5/6x. SCL is growing, very, very quickly, creating bottlenecks for existing infrastructure. There is a major expansion plan currently underway, expected by 2020, which will enhance capacity to 16MM passengers annually, followed by a further expansion to 34MM by 2034, excellent video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTRQ62iMcTs

http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...on-del-aeropuerto-de-santiago.html

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

GRU is, of course, the largest and most important market in Latin America. However, this facility is already capacity-controlled and a bit of a stretch for AKL. LIM may be the best option for NZ, as I described earlier.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 20134 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 9):
The main limiting factor would be the aircraft the 772/789 can't do it,

Whats the range? I would think the 789 could easily do it even if the 772 couldnt. Its under 7500 miles. ORD-HKG is longer and it does the route. Perhaps its the polar nature of the route?



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 19944 times:

If AR is leaving its transpacific route and NZ wants to jump into that market.

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 8):
LIM may offer NZ the best alternative, as it is home to Avianca Peru [formerly TACA]. Avianca offers non-stop connections to all major markets in Latin America from LIM,

And if NZ keeps its B767-300ER for a while more, AKL-LIM could be flown via RAR with no ETOPS issues.
There's little reason for NZ to fly to SCL or EZE as those aren't Star Alliance hubs.
Although GRU market has massive draw, NZ AKL-GRU may not be route possible to fly for the next years.
Best thing to do for NZ right now is to fly to LIM and offer immediate connections to/from GRU.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 19854 times:

LAXdude1023,

The South Pacific route between South America and Australia/NZ has ETOPS problems with a polar routing. It's pure ocean unlike ORD-HKG which has some Russian and Canadian/American (Alaska) cities for diversion. For ETOPS the route would require routing north via RAR/PPT as a possible ETOPS diversion point.


User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 19711 times:

And I TRULY believe Chile with the way its going it maybe the first South American country to achieve 1st world status (it already has a very high HDI). This route can only grow and allows QF/LA to capture on-ward connections to Asia.

A friend recently send me this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXrUIFOh2zA


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5175 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 19639 times:

Quoting willzzz88 (Reply 14):
The South Pacific route between South America and Australia/NZ has ETOPS problems with a polar routing

Exactly, there is literally NOTHING the entire way from Invercargill to Punta Arenas. Work on the basis that a twin isn't going to be flying these routes anytime soon.

Over the northern route there are quite a few diversion airports in Siberia, Alaska and far north Canada, which makes ETOPS basically a non-issue up there.

This is SYD-SCL with ETOPS 180:



Even a hypothetical ETOPS 240 would require a significant detour:



And finally, AKL-GRU at ETOPS 240:



You'll need a quad to fly this. Sorry to break it, but I doubt this route will happen.

(copyright Karl L Swartz)



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineLuisKMIA From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 19408 times:

I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap.

User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3114 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 19311 times:

Quoting LuisKMIA (Reply 17):
I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap

This is about the Australian and New Zealand Governments rules on ETOPS rather than the planes capabilities.

Well so much for AR getting 345s to fly SYD/AKL .... where will those birds be flying to now? Everyone was so convinced.  Wow!

[Edited 2013-11-09 18:15:49]


AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 19300 times:

Quoting LuisKMIA (Reply 17):
I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap.


Yes, Boeing announced two years ago its 77L, 77W and 77E [with GE engines only initially, with RR and PW to follow] would be granted ETOPS 330 designation. Therefore, I do not see how this would be a problem for NZ, or even LA if they had to swap a couple 77W from their affiliate LATAM carrier, TAM/JJ.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=20295&item=2070

A bigger issue for both NZ and LA will be when the 787-8 and 787-9 receive ETOPS 330 designation. That could truly make the South America-Oceania market a competitive one.

[Edited 2013-11-09 18:34:06]

User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 18961 times:

LuisKMIA,

The South Africa-Brasil route (South Atlantic) from Johannesburg to Sao Paulo is fully compatible with ETOPS with SAA flying on some days a A332 by flying 30 minutes north to comply with ETOPS regulations. The continents of South America and Africa and quite close (it's the Atlantic after all). Emirates and Qatar fly a northern version of this route that completely transits African airspace.

Actually this route from Chile to NZ/Australia supposedly has higher yields than the other route based on award availability and ticket prices.


User currently offlinekoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 18811 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

I've written elsewhere that the existing AKL-PPT flight should be replaced by Air New Zealand with 789 (or 77E) services as follows via a Papeete scissor-hub:

SYD-PPT-GRU (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Avianca Brasil)
AKL-PPT-EZE (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Aerolineas Argentinas)

PPT scissor hub


This would allow numerous benefits compared with non-stop services:

1) Sydney's 300 seat aircraft would serve 3 destinations (PPT, GRU and EZE)
2) As would Auckland's (PPT, GRU, EZE)
3) As would Sao Paulo's (PPT, AKL, SYD)
4) As would Buenos Aires' (PPT, AKL, SYD).

Additionally, the yields should be optimised by the fact that a large proportion of tickets would be from SYD/AKL/GRU/EZE to Tahiti. This means that none of the sectors fall into the inefficient ULH domain.

A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2915 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 18159 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.

Not really. Rather you would have the choice to either fly to SCL or Tahiti depending on your alliance leanings. Also note that the SCL hub services much more in Brazil or Argentina than what you have proposed NZ/VA do so there will still be an additional connection happening if pax aren't flying to GRU or EZE compared to SCL which is virtually a one stop hub. So while this sort of hub may make NZ/VA services viable and even competitive, it won't them superior to the one stop SCL hub option.


User currently offlinekoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 17640 times:

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 22):
Not really. Rather you would have the choice to either fly to SCL or Tahiti depending on your alliance leanings

Any pax to/from BNE/MEL/ADL/PER would be able to avoid a domestic to international and vvv transfer with my model and could fly straight into Buenos Aires or Sao Paulo.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2915 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 17357 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 23):
Any pax to/from BNE/MEL/ADL/PER would be able to avoid a domestic to international and vvv transfer with my model and could fly straight into Buenos Aires or Sao Paulo.

If you're going to Rio, Brasilia, Montevideo etc you will need to make a transit stop in South America under your model vs making the stop via SYD, of AKL, under the existing QF arrangement. Again, it's a viable alternative depending on your alliance leanings which matches the current offering but I can't see where you have the serious commercial advantage. If you're going from PER you could go PER-AKL-SCL-GRU on QF/LAN or PER-AKL-PPT-GRU/PER-SYD-PPT-GRU on NZ/VA. They're both 4 stops.

However if your ending destination is other than GRU or EZE then the routing from PER is, for example, PER-SYD-PPT-GRU-GIG vs PER-SYD-SCL-GIG. 5 airports vs 4.

Again it would make NZ/VA competitive and would probably maintain pax loyalty and be a neat alternative to QF/LAN.


25 SCL767 : LAN will increase frequency on the SCL-AKL-SYD route from 6x weekly to a daily service from 01JAN14 through 31MAR14. Phase 1 of the SCL expansion pro
26 dcajet : While it is true that competition on the south pole route has increased with LA and QF joining AR, the reasons for AR leaving the route after 34 year
27 VCy : Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?
28 AR385 : They do not have an aircraft that would make it nonstop without significant penalties. Moot point though, this Argentine government would not allow i
29 dcajet : Only if LA would be the applicant. If 4M would apply, there is technically (and politically) no reason to oppose the application. After all, it is an
30 RAGAZZO777 : Nope. Only LAN Argentina could fly such route and it's only got 2 763s in its fleet. . Indeed. Problem is Air New Zealand doesn't really have spare a
31 Sydscott : QF could fly it and LAN could codeshare with LAN Argentina directly feeding. There is no reason not to allow it now that AR has withdrawn from the ro
32 qantas077 : or they could fly EK/QR or EY via the middle east and onwards to Latin America. SQ also do it although two stops is a little more tiring.
33 SCL767 : Even if LATAM's Argentine affiliate had the right a/c to operate the EZE-SYD route, as well as approval from the ANAC, LAN Argentina would never oper
34 AR385 : Well, "techncically", but you know how 4M has struggled to get even more domestic routes. There´s one they wanted to add internationally and they´v
35 SCL767 : The COR-GRU route. However, both LA and LP operate daily flights linking COR to SCL and LIM. LAN Perú used to operate LIM-ROS daily, but the ANAC re
36 777ER : A stop over in PPT/RAR is certainly the route I would happily take, nothing beats a nice 24-48 hour transit stop relaxing on a beach in between fligh
37 qf2220 : Small point, and I suggest that the thread title is changed, QF and LA will be a duopoly, not a monopoly. Subject to aircraft, no doubt it will be co
38 Patagon : This is my opinion about this subject: 1- In term of commerce, Chile, Argentina & Brazil are big dairy producers country. 2- New Zealand companies
39 2travel2know2 : Seems NZ also is getting rid of its B767-300ER which could operate AKL-LIM-AKL routed via RAR (which is sort of a part of New Zealand) or PPT or - le
40 Post contains links PDPsol : There were so many comments from last week's thread on the ex-SQ A340-500 that many assumed AR would simply procure these [high cost] examples to rep
41 Post contains images qf2220 : As far as I am aware this is the extent of the cooperation. Without antitrust they cannot cooperate on anything. The codeshares I think are hard bloc
42 SCL767 : Premium passengers traveling on any oneworld carrier from SCL, as well as passengers with elite status with any oneworld carrier are permitted access
43 qf2220 : Agreed, however the QF promoted lounge is the Admirals Lounge, not Neruda or Mistral (even though they are all essentially the same offering, I have
44 RAGAZZO777 : I know, but if NZ wants to attract high-yielding pax and promote AKL as a stopover between South America and Australasia, then they should fly AKL-LI
45 yellowtail : but they have…they are getting 345s…..
46 dcajet : No they are not. That turned out to be either a rumor or the planned lease to AR did not materialize. Notice how the airline never said anything abou
47 qf2220 : So no A345s for AR??
48 RAGAZZO777 : Nope. Once the A340 fleet is retired AR will no longer operate four-engine planes.
49 LipeGIG : Correct. No equipment and the competition is too intense. You guys forget about the Gulf Carriers ? You can fly from Australia to Rio de Janeiro with
50 motorhussy : Don't know what the treaty agreements are between Argentina and New Zealand with regard to on flights from Argentina by a New Zealand carrier but wou
51 kiwiandrew : Actually, I did a little bit of mucking around on the great circle mapper website. A nonstop AKL-LIM flight diverting its path via 27 degrees S 130 W
52 PDPsol : This all sounds perfectly reasonable, with a viable Star Alliance hub at LIM serving the entire continent. Actually, no. As I mentioned here, ETOPS 3
53 RAGAZZO777 : Very interesting. Methinks that the new Boeing 787-9 would be perfect for a nonstop AKL-LIM flight. Moreover, the way that NZ has configured it (only
54 2travel2know2 : While routes between western North America (YVR/SFO/LAX) and AKL are kind of north to south but LIM - AKL is east to west.. Not only ETOPS but winds
55 steex : I don't think anyone forgot, it's just that from SYD to GIG is an extra 5000+ nm if you go via the DXB rather than a more direct South Pacific route.
56 qf2220 : I think they are yet to even apply for any ATI in reality! Any cooperation they do is reactive to the moves that the other carrier makes public annou
57 Post contains links and images motorhussy : Below is what you've described and showing 180 and 240 minute ETOPS... the problem is, a lot of the major trade/business cities like Montevideo, Buen
58 RyanairGuru : I don't see why not, many, many airlines have operated GRU-EZE tags over the years AKL-PPT-GRU is 9,085 and AKL-SCL-GRU is 7,637. Therefore you are s
59 EK413 : It's time for QF to evaluate the retirement of the remaining B744's & bump up frequency. Sorry to say but Oneworld is dominating the Australasia -
60 PA515 : AKL-EZE can be done as EDTO 240 with a deviation towards IPC, like the AKL-EZE-AKL charter last year with 777-300(ER) ZK-OKQ, then on to GRU and/or G
61 RAGAZZO777 : Not to nitpick, but Montevideo is hardly a major trade/business city. As a matter of fact, Lima is the fourth largest city in South America after SAO
62 koruman : The West Coast of South America is not even in the Top 100 Future Air NZ markets. They are interested in Sao Paulo, and if Argentina offers some bene
63 Post contains images MilesDependent : I would never do this when a direct SYD-SCL or AKL-SCL was available. I mean never, ever! Transiting LAX is usually a nightmare. I have been to PTY a
64 Post contains links and images mariner : Having read all the bright ideas on this thread I like yours best - through RAR, with feed from SYD. I don't really care where they fly on to - LIM,
65 aerorobnz : The whole Pacific coast is pretty sandy like a desert. There's some ok beaches in Lima though.. good surf too I hear I rate the whole continent. Colo
66 Post contains images mariner : I went to Ecuador on a banana boat and had a great time in Guayaquil. I'd go back in a heartbeat. Otherwise I only know the east coast, and Mexico, o
67 koruman : No, but as I wrote, it's why I fly from Australia to LAX via Auckland.
68 yellowtail : Hence my original suggestion of AKL-PTY. Love it or hate it…CMs hub at PTY is very powerful. Most of the Australians and New Zealanders somehow end
69 incitatus : EK has a substantial chunk of the market between Brazil and Australia. QR to a lesser extent. The PPT idea ia a good one. Just don't oversell it. Its
70 leonardoq : Although SCL is a good hub for South America, it has only two direct options to Brazil (gru and gig).Passengers have to connect in GRU or GIG to fly t
71 ltbewr : I wonder if AR's decision is due to giving more fights to the USA as seen as more profitable ?
72 United787 : I think that map you created illustrates how well located LIM is for NZ. The economies of Peru, Colombia and Panama are booming and LIM serves these
73 incitatus : Even with the poor geography, SCL has a significant advantage. The GDP per capita of Chile is $15K USD, Panama's is $10K, Colombia is $8K and Peru is
74 motorhussy : While you're right, Uruguay has a lot of trade and commerce with New Zealand through investments by New Zealand businesses in the dairy industry in t
75 United787 : But how many of those Kiwi's trips to Argentina were because of AR's flight to Buenos Aires? If NZ had a flight to LIM instead, I suspect many people
76 MD11junkie : Where do you get your numbers from? According to the World Factbook in 2012, Argentina's GDP is U$S 18'400 per capita. Chile's U$S 18'700 per capita
77 PDPsol : It appears our thread has evolved into a discussion evaluating the relative merits of LIM vs. SCL vs. EZE vs. GRU as a new destination for NZ. GRU: N
78 Post contains links RAGAZZO777 : Care to share with us your source ? Because that's not true at all. Here, take a look at these World Bank figures (2012). http://data.worldbank.org/i
79 motorhussy : Agreed. I meant to point that out, that I couldn't confirm 100% as to how accurate that was, although I do recall that on the New Zealand customs dep
80 yellowtail : This Mex NZ can't be right….891 People alone with NZ passports crossed the land border into Mex from Belize in 2012 according the Immigration figur
81 incitatus : You are both looking at PPP. PPP is a poor metric for international air travel because international air travel prices do not vary a lot from country
82 Post contains links PDPsol : True, Nominal GDP is vastly better measure for highly-fungible international goods and services, such as air travel. IMF/World Bank GDP nominal data
83 motorhussy : Sometimes there are people who will do multiple entry as well... the Kiwis who travel to Mexico as their 'primary' destination may use it to base the
84 incitatus : Which airline can fare better - LA AKL-SCL or NZ AKL-LIM? All the market needs is one of the above and SYD-GRU. I believe the launch of SYD-GRU would
85 LAXdude1023 : Thats a horrible idea. The CM hubs power deals with connecting people from North and Central America to cities large and small in South America. Ther
86 yellowtail : Then I guess KL, AF, IB, soon TP, and rumored LH, all have set up shop in PTY….just because PTY has huge O&D. If you look at the KL flight alon
87 PDPsol : No doubt these are the largest city pair markets for South America - Oceania, but there are the GRU capacity issues we have discussed, plus the range
88 incitatus : With on-going construction at GRU plus plans for further construction, GRU will add a large number of departures in the next few years. First additio
89 PDPsol : Ehhhh... sure, but we are determining carriers other than QF or LA and its affiliate, TAM/JJ can operate a South America - Oceania route. Surely, Sta
90 Post contains images motorhussy : The path between these two points is directly over the Antarctic, an ETOPS black hole. What aircraft can realistically execute this route with an ade
91 incitatus : The current restrictions at GRU come from the number of available gates and parking positions. During the day there are no parking positions availabl
92 LAXdude1023 : Youre comparing apples and oranges. Europe-Latin America is not the same as Oceania-Latin America. PTY offeres geographic flow between Europe and Lat
93 SA7700 : IIRC, JJ does not have any A340-500's in their fleet anymore. Regards, SA7700
94 RAGAZZO777 : Agreed. . Same reason why Qantas dropped EZE in favour of SCL.
95 RyanairGuru : There's no way that an Australian airline will be flying twins to GRU any time soon, as they are restricted to ETOPS180. It will either be operated b
96 motorhussy : Actually at 13,387km's, it would be pushing the envelope of economics of the 744ER. While winds through the Roaring-40's are generally westerlies, th
97 RyanairGuru : Its size didn't stop QF piling into EZE and SCL in direct competition to LA.
98 motorhussy : Does LA not codeshare on the QF flights to SCL? And the EZE flights were hardly direct competition to LA, rather to AR don't you think, as LA's Argen
99 qf2220 : Aside from the sheer length, there just isnt enough space in the -ER Fleet to think about a GRU route. QF will expand in South America via SCL and int
100 Post contains links SCL767 : With AR ending its route to SYD, LAN is evaluating adding additional frequencies on the SCL-AKL-SYD route if there is an increase in demand for flight
101 Post contains images yellowtail : We will see over the next 18 months…. Last time someone thought my predictions or suggestions sounded crazy they were had to eat some humble pie. N
102 LAXdude1023 : I seem to recall you've eaten quite a few slices of humble pie yourself. If someone in Panama wants to flash enough money, then it might happen. Ther
103 Post contains links and images motorhussy : Thought these were interesting factoids and comments in the AR press release about ceasing operations to Oceania... What alternatives would these be?
104 upwardfacing : I'd concur with a proposed Air New Zealand AKL-EZE-GRU routing. Though LIM as a Star hub may seem attractive at first glance, the Southern Cone is whe
105 yellowtail : 12 months ago TP had zero interest in flying to PTY….yet, it appears flights will commence. One thing I have learnt with the Panamanians is that th
106 leonardoq : If NZ was planning on flying to South America, I dont even know why this PTY option is being discussed here....
107 Post contains images motorhussy : Yes, there is a distinct lack of understanding of the market, perhaps even geography, by some members.
108 PA515 : Had a rethink and the best strategy for NZ may be to concede nothing to LA/QF and do AKL-SCL-GRU. AC has a Mo We Fr Sa Su 77W SCL-EZE 1335/1530, EZE-S
109 PDPsol : Yellowtail: no one doubts the Panamanians have large aspirations, indeed. PTY is a very important hub and Panama is fashioning itself as a kind of Ho
110 qf2220 : Interesting concept, though would a codeshare be possible on a foreign carrier (ie AC to EZE and TK to GRU) like that? Also, would this encourage QF
111 motorhussy : Because of their oneworld link-up with LA and JJ at the SCL hub, QF don't need to use their own metal for this. It would be an advantage for NZ at EZ
112 Post contains images koruman : I don't agree. I think a small twin would allow them to concentrate on the most lucrative point-to-point markets, probably in order: SYD-GRU SYD-EZE
113 kiwiandrew : Two questions regarding this: 1/ Does NZ currently have the traffic rights to do this ? 2/ if not, can they persuade Australia, France, Argentina and
114 Post contains images RyanairGuru : I think they're shooting themselves in the foot there. By timing the flights better for connections to HKG, SIN, PVG and BKK then they could hopefull
115 mariner : I'm an internationalist, a one-worlder (the international concept not the airline alliance) and I believe that Air NZ should have the freedom to make
116 gemuser : Of course they do from Australia. Under the CER, CAM etc NZL airlines can fly from Australia to anywhere they like, as far as Australia is concerned.
117 kiwiandrew : Thanks for that, I wasn't sure whether NZ's rights from Australia were restricted by the agreement to specific countries only.
118 sunrisevalley : I have seen two flight plans GRU-AKL for a 744. For both the airways distance is 6556nm. Time on one was 15hr 08m and the other further south via Pun
119 PA515 : Yes. QF and BA had this arrangement at EZE. The SYD-EZE and LHR-GRU-EZE arrived about the same time and returned about the same time. However, when B
120 LipeGIG : Brazil have an agreement with NZL, it allows 3 weekly service plus 4 weekly service if they code-share with an airline from Brazil, designated to pro
121 koruman : Mariner, Firstly,RAR's runway is too short for flights to eastern South America. Secondly, LAN's Santiago-Papeete flight has always relied on Brazilia
122 PA515 : A new Brazil / New Zealand Air Services Agreement was signed on 11th March 2013. PA515
123 qf2220 : I think the question to answer is what traffic could QF generate AUS-GRU and vice versa? Without sufficient numbers, the tag on wont make sense. Thou
124 PDPsol : Really?! Boeing made this announcement two years ago, one would think PW and RR would have worked hard to make it happen. What is stopping NZ from op
125 mariner : I'm sure they haven't. That can change. I remember when no one had heard of Phuket. As to the runway, an airline I follow is operating with A319's at
126 sunrisevalley : The NZL regulator requires that an aircraft must be approved for > 180-min by the regulator in the country of manufacture. Thus the need for FAA a
127 motorhussy : With such a good idea, it's funny that TN haven't thought to operate it.
128 sunrisevalley : You would wonder wouldn't you. Perhaps the ~ 48 hr time demand per cycle (AKL/SYD-PPT-GRU/EZE-PPT-AKL/SYD) on the aircraft might be an inhibiter. Kor
129 FlyboyOz : Strange.... But Qantas always fly between SYD and JNB via part of south pole. Similar flightpath between SYD to EZE.
130 qf2220 : Could QF also sell their codeshare flights on OZ, VN and MU?
131 PDPsol : But the FAA has granted ETOPS 330 to the 77E so what is the holdback?
132 sunrisevalley : Only to the GE/777-200ER engine/airframe combination so far as I know. I actually got someone in Boeings PR group to reply to an email about 3-months
133 RyanairGuru : It would depend on individual contracts and the relevant bilaterals, but I don't see why it isn't theoretically possible. Good point!
134 2travel2know2 : Transiting LAX is a nightmare. PTY is trying to improve, too bad CM grows faster than the government is improving PTY. But unlike 2011, right-now CM
135 gemuser : So what? As we are talking about a New Zealand airline, it's not FAA approval that is required, but NZL's CAA's approval! [Now admittedly you require
136 QFVHOQA : If the main market in South America is GRU, then QF loses its advantage as distances are much further via SYD than via Europe or Middle East. QF woul
137 PDPsol : An assumption on my end. New Zealand is a sovereign nation [Australia too], of course, and has the ability and the right to implement civil aviation
138 RyanairGuru : I wasn't really suggesting that QF should be a full blown hub between Asia and South America, but more that they should optimise their flights to tak
139 QFVHOQA : When you put it that way, taking the low hanging fruit by allowing connections without a long layover would make sense. But what if it then affected
140 Post contains images RyanairGuru : Good point, I hadn't even considered that!
141 qf2220 : Fly slowly!
142 Post contains links and images Azure : Interesting concept. I also developed the idea that PPT could become a powerful hub in this thread : Air Tahiti Nui Seeks ATI-JV With Air France, Del
143 sunrisevalley : Under its present rules it is unable to allow the RR/777-200ER > 180-min. because the regulator in the country of manufacture ( the FAA in this in
144 qf2220 : It is perhaps the closest airport to the antipode of DXB!
145 qf2220 : Having a bit of a play around with GCMap, the above is the way to look at it. SCL and EZE are realy the only major centres that would have a time ben
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