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AR To Abandon Oceania, LA/QF Monopoly  
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Posted (5 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 22045 times:

I have no clue whether this topic was already discussed in the ex-SQ A340-500 thread. AR has, apparently, decided to drop its routes to AKL and SYD, leaving the entire market to oneworld members, LA and QF, effective April 2, 2014:

http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...as-argentinas-dejara-de-volar.html
http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...-de-santiago-se-convertira-en.html

En vivo desde SCL is a well-known regional blog covering commercial aviation in Chile and the southern cone region.

I would be [pleasantly] shocked if AR were actually focusing on financial criteria when making commercial decisions, rather than following directives from its controlling shareholder, the Argentine Republic.



There is an official announcement from AR as well:

http://www.aerolineas.com.ar/es-AR/Prensa/ComunicadosPorA%C3%B1o/2013

The announcement lays out plans for 2014

[Edited 2013-11-09 12:38:50 by SA7700]

145 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 782 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21945 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Thread starter):
I would be [pleasantly] shocked if AR were actually focusing on financial criteria when making commercial decisions, rather than following directives from its controlling shareholder, the Argentine Republic.

Executive teams that ignore the wishes of shareholders have poor longevity in position.

AR's announcement, along with SAA's long-haul cutbacks, just shows that ULH flying is difficult, especially for carriers that lack economies of scale.


User currently offlineVCy From Cyprus, joined Dec 2012, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21773 times:
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Shame to see EZE losing another long haul service! After SAA, Malaysian and QF now AR decides to abandon their longest route too. Who would of thought a route operated by 2 carriers up until recently would now not be served by any! Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

User currently offlineLatinPlane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2691 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21698 times:

Sad news. AR has been flying its famous transpolar route since June of 1980.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqxLe8OPwvE

An old video showing one of AR's 742 making its regular tech stop in Rio Gallegos before continuing on to Auckland and Sydney circa 92/93.


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5937 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (5 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 21546 times:
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Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 1):
AR's announcement, along with SAA's long-haul cutbacks, just shows that ULH flying is difficult, especially for carriers that lack economies of scale.

That route used to be extremely successful for AR. I guess the end of their monopoly on the route really hurt them.

Quoting VCy (Reply 2):
Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

It hasn´t. Rather the offer has increased and AR can´t compete.



MGGS
User currently offlinezkncj From New Zealand, joined Nov 2005, 399 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 21504 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Thread starter):
leaving the entire market to oneworld members, LA and QF, effective April 2, 2014

NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2801 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (5 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 20914 times:

Quoting VCy (Reply 2):
Who would of thought a route operated by 2 carriers up until recently would now not be served by any! Surely the market hasn't dried up all of a sudden.

Don't forget QF dropped EZE in favour of Santiago because of LAN's hub at SCL. Also the Argentine Govt didn't allow QF to interline with LAN Argentina.

It will be interesting to see if QF/LAN move to increase services. QF is already operating a 4th weekly service over the Christmas period and with the withdrawl of AR there is probably some more traffic to be captured. If the Argentine Govt also allowed QF to code with LAN Argentina they may find QF returning to EZE as well.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7318 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (5 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 20830 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 5):
NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.

NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (5 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 20491 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 5):
NZ has been planing on entering the South American market for a while now, this could be there chance to start the route.

NZ is, indeed, carefully evaluating launching a route to South America. However, as a Star Alliance member, neither EZE nor SCL offer good alliance connections. AR is a new Sky Team member, while LA is, of course, a founding member of oneworld.

LIM may offer NZ the best alternative, as it is home to Avianca Peru [formerly TACA]. Avianca offers non-stop connections to all major markets in Latin America from LIM, including BOG, EZE, MVD, GRU, ASU, VVI, UIO, GYE, SJO, SAL, HAV, CCS, POA, GIG and even SCL via H2.

Developing LIM is a major focus for Avianca and its subsidiary carriers and could offer NZ the best option for a route to South America. It would be wonderful to have non-stop flights to Oceania from both SCL and LIM...


User currently offlinezkncj From New Zealand, joined Nov 2005, 399 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 20359 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):

NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

The main limiting factor would be the aircraft the 772/789 can't do it, the only aircraft that could do it are the 77W and 744s. The 744s are leaving in April and Sept and the 77W are fully used up on AKL-LAX-LHR and AKL-LAX and soon to be AKL-SFO with the extra 2x 77W arriving.

The only real option for for a 2014 start would be to keep the 744 in service, until they could get another 2x 77W.


User currently offlineMilesDependent From Australia, joined Sep 2001, 854 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 20251 times:

If trying to get an award seat on QF is any indication of how successful a route is... SYD-SCL must be very good for Qantas. Absolutely impossible to find an award seat on the SYD-SCL. QF just do not release them, even 12 months out on day of release - nothing. With AR pulling out of SYD, I imagine it will get even worse.

Do QF have the rights to go daily?


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 20004 times:

Quoting MilesDependent (Reply 10):
If trying to get an award seat on QF is any indication of how successful a route is... SYD-SCL must be very good for Qantas. Absolutely impossible to find an award seat on the SYD-SCL. QF just do not release them, even 12 months out on day of release - nothing. With AR pulling out of SYD, I imagine it will get even worse.

Do QF have the rights to go daily?

Hi Miles, QF and LA have a very tight relationship, with SCL offering excellent connections throughout the continent. QF is increasing frequencies from 3x to 4x, effective next month, for the southern summer season, while LA offers 6x, practically daily service, on the SCL-SYD route.

Now, with AR leaving the scene, QF will most likely want to increase service on the route, perhaps keeping 4x year-round, or even 5/6x. SCL is growing, very, very quickly, creating bottlenecks for existing infrastructure. There is a major expansion plan currently underway, expected by 2020, which will enhance capacity to 16MM passengers annually, followed by a further expansion to 34MM by 2034, excellent video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTRQ62iMcTs

http://envivodesdescl.blogspot.com/2...on-del-aeropuerto-de-santiago.html

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

GRU is, of course, the largest and most important market in Latin America. However, this facility is already capacity-controlled and a bit of a stretch for AKL. LIM may be the best option for NZ, as I described earlier.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7318 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 19878 times:

Quoting zkncj (Reply 9):
The main limiting factor would be the aircraft the 772/789 can't do it,

Whats the range? I would think the 789 could easily do it even if the 772 couldnt. Its under 7500 miles. ORD-HKG is longer and it does the route. Perhaps its the polar nature of the route?



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2427 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 19688 times:

If AR is leaving its transpacific route and NZ wants to jump into that market.

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 8):
LIM may offer NZ the best alternative, as it is home to Avianca Peru [formerly TACA]. Avianca offers non-stop connections to all major markets in Latin America from LIM,

And if NZ keeps its B767-300ER for a while more, AKL-LIM could be flown via RAR with no ETOPS issues.
There's little reason for NZ to fly to SCL or EZE as those aren't Star Alliance hubs.
Although GRU market has massive draw, NZ AKL-GRU may not be route possible to fly for the next years.
Best thing to do for NZ right now is to fly to LIM and offer immediate connections to/from GRU.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 19598 times:

LAXdude1023,

The South Pacific route between South America and Australia/NZ has ETOPS problems with a polar routing. It's pure ocean unlike ORD-HKG which has some Russian and Canadian/American (Alaska) cities for diversion. For ETOPS the route would require routing north via RAR/PPT as a possible ETOPS diversion point.


User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 19455 times:

And I TRULY believe Chile with the way its going it maybe the first South American country to achieve 1st world status (it already has a very high HDI). This route can only grow and allows QF/LA to capture on-ward connections to Asia.

A friend recently send me this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXrUIFOh2zA


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (5 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 19383 times:

Quoting willzzz88 (Reply 14):
The South Pacific route between South America and Australia/NZ has ETOPS problems with a polar routing

Exactly, there is literally NOTHING the entire way from Invercargill to Punta Arenas. Work on the basis that a twin isn't going to be flying these routes anytime soon.

Over the northern route there are quite a few diversion airports in Siberia, Alaska and far north Canada, which makes ETOPS basically a non-issue up there.

This is SYD-SCL with ETOPS 180:



Even a hypothetical ETOPS 240 would require a significant detour:



And finally, AKL-GRU at ETOPS 240:



You'll need a quad to fly this. Sorry to break it, but I doubt this route will happen.

(copyright Karl L Swartz)



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineLuisKMIA From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (5 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 19152 times:

I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap.

User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (5 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 19055 times:

Quoting LuisKMIA (Reply 17):
I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap

This is about the Australian and New Zealand Governments rules on ETOPS rather than the planes capabilities.

Well so much for AR getting 345s to fly SYD/AKL .... where will those birds be flying to now? Everyone was so convinced.  Wow!

[Edited 2013-11-09 18:15:49]


Rule number One, NEVER underestimate the other guys greed
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (5 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 19044 times:

Quoting LuisKMIA (Reply 17):
I thought ETOPS 330 has been approved for the 777 family and eventually the 787 family, which would solve this gap. I think that in addition to Oceania-South America, South Africa-Oceania is the other remaining ETOPS gap.


Yes, Boeing announced two years ago its 77L, 77W and 77E [with GE engines only initially, with RR and PW to follow] would be granted ETOPS 330 designation. Therefore, I do not see how this would be a problem for NZ, or even LA if they had to swap a couple 77W from their affiliate LATAM carrier, TAM/JJ.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=20295&item=2070

A bigger issue for both NZ and LA will be when the 787-8 and 787-9 receive ETOPS 330 designation. That could truly make the South America-Oceania market a competitive one.

[Edited 2013-11-09 18:34:06]

User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 18705 times:

LuisKMIA,

The South Africa-Brasil route (South Atlantic) from Johannesburg to Sao Paulo is fully compatible with ETOPS with SAA flying on some days a A332 by flying 30 minutes north to comply with ETOPS regulations. The continents of South America and Africa and quite close (it's the Atlantic after all). Emirates and Qatar fly a northern version of this route that completely transits African airspace.

Actually this route from Chile to NZ/Australia supposedly has higher yields than the other route based on award availability and ticket prices.


User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (5 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 18555 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
NZ could leap frog everyone and fly AKL-GRU. GRU is the ultimate prize in the South American market and with AKL's geographic position, it wouldnt be that much of a stretch to get there.

I've written elsewhere that the existing AKL-PPT flight should be replaced by Air New Zealand with 789 (or 77E) services as follows via a Papeete scissor-hub:

SYD-PPT-GRU (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Avianca Brasil)
AKL-PPT-EZE (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Aerolineas Argentinas)

PPT scissor hub


This would allow numerous benefits compared with non-stop services:

1) Sydney's 300 seat aircraft would serve 3 destinations (PPT, GRU and EZE)
2) As would Auckland's (PPT, GRU, EZE)
3) As would Sao Paulo's (PPT, AKL, SYD)
4) As would Buenos Aires' (PPT, AKL, SYD).

Additionally, the yields should be optimised by the fact that a large proportion of tickets would be from SYD/AKL/GRU/EZE to Tahiti. This means that none of the sectors fall into the inefficient ULH domain.

A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2801 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (5 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 17903 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.

Not really. Rather you would have the choice to either fly to SCL or Tahiti depending on your alliance leanings. Also note that the SCL hub services much more in Brazil or Argentina than what you have proposed NZ/VA do so there will still be an additional connection happening if pax aren't flying to GRU or EZE compared to SCL which is virtually a one stop hub. So while this sort of hub may make NZ/VA services viable and even competitive, it won't them superior to the one stop SCL hub option.


User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (5 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 17384 times:

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 22):
Not really. Rather you would have the choice to either fly to SCL or Tahiti depending on your alliance leanings

Any pax to/from BNE/MEL/ADL/PER would be able to avoid a domestic to international and vvv transfer with my model and could fly straight into Buenos Aires or Sao Paulo.


User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2801 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (5 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17101 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 23):
Any pax to/from BNE/MEL/ADL/PER would be able to avoid a domestic to international and vvv transfer with my model and could fly straight into Buenos Aires or Sao Paulo.

If you're going to Rio, Brasilia, Montevideo etc you will need to make a transit stop in South America under your model vs making the stop via SYD, of AKL, under the existing QF arrangement. Again, it's a viable alternative depending on your alliance leanings which matches the current offering but I can't see where you have the serious commercial advantage. If you're going from PER you could go PER-AKL-SCL-GRU on QF/LAN or PER-AKL-PPT-GRU/PER-SYD-PPT-GRU on NZ/VA. They're both 4 stops.

However if your ending destination is other than GRU or EZE then the routing from PER is, for example, PER-SYD-PPT-GRU-GIG vs PER-SYD-SCL-GIG. 5 airports vs 4.

Again it would make NZ/VA competitive and would probably maintain pax loyalty and be a neat alternative to QF/LAN.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 25, posted (5 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17434 times:
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Quoting PDPsol (Reply 11):
while LA offers 6x, practically daily service, on the SCL-SYD route.

LAN will increase frequency on the SCL-AKL-SYD route from 6x weekly to a daily service from 01JAN14 through 31MAR14.

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 11):
There is a major expansion plan currently underway, expected by 2020, which will enhance capacity to 16MM passengers annually

Phase 1 of the SCL expansion project commenced earlier this year and the airport will have the capacity to handle 16 million passengers per year by the end of 2014.


User currently offlinedcajet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 397 posts, RR: 4
Reply 26, posted (5 months 1 week ago) and read 17006 times:

Quoting AR385 (Reply 4):
Rather the offer has increased and AR can´t compete.

While it is true that competition on the south pole route has increased with LA and QF joining AR, the reasons for AR leaving the route after 34 years are very much internal to AR.

The A340-200 is the only plane in the fleet that can make it to SYD nonstop year round from EZE, albeit with a 20% penalty in payload. So it is a less than favorable scenario from the get go. Additionally, around 50% of the flights carry additional penalties due to headwinds on the EZE-SYD leg (the SYD-EZE leg has no restrictions), so it creates additional customer service issues.

Those A340-200 are scheduled to start leaving the fleet in 2014 and the airline can't justify keeping an uncompetitive product for the sake of just one route, which on top of everything is not the top revenue producer and at the end of the day the Oceania route was, de facto, dictating the long haul fleet composition. Adding another type (A340-500 or 600) just because of SYD does not make sense so the airline took the painful but correct decision, imo. Sad but such is reality.

WIth the departure of SYD from the route map, AR can now look at twins such as a 777/787/A350 for all its future fleet needs, for the very first time as the reason for "4 engines 4 long haul" will have gone away come 4/1/14.



"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlineVCy From Cyprus, joined Dec 2012, 236 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (5 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 16953 times:
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Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?

User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5937 posts, RR: 30
Reply 28, posted (5 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 16755 times:
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Quoting VCy (Reply 27):
Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?

They do not have an aircraft that would make it nonstop without significant penalties. Moot point though, this Argentine government would not allow it.



MGGS
User currently offlinedcajet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 397 posts, RR: 4
Reply 29, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16604 times:

Quoting AR385 (Reply 28):
They do not have an aircraft that would make it nonstop without significant penalties. Moot point though, this Argentine government would not allow it.

Only if LA would be the applicant. If 4M would apply, there is technically (and politically) no reason to oppose the application. After all, it is an Argentinian airline. But, back to the first point, they have no aircraft fit to fly the route. And leasing A340-300 from the mothership would be of no use: the 300 does not have the legs to make it to SYD from EZE and the penalties it would be subject to would make any operation inviable.



"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16528 times:

Quoting VCy (Reply 27):
Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?

Nope. Only LAN Argentina could fly such route and it's only got 2 763s in its fleet.


.

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 8):
LIM may offer NZ the best alternative, as it is home to Avianca Peru [formerly TACA]. Avianca offers non-stop connections to all major markets in Latin America from LIM, including BOG, EZE, MVD, GRU, ASU, VVI, UIO, GYE, SJO, SAL, HAV, CCS, POA, GIG and even SCL via H2.

Developing LIM is a major focus for Avianca and its subsidiary carriers and could offer NZ the best option for a route to South America. It would be wonderful to have non-stop flights to Oceania from both SCL and LIM...

Indeed. Problem is Air New Zealand doesn't really have spare aircraft to operate a hypothetical AKL-LIM-AKL route. The 747s are on their way out and they only have a handful of 77Ws.

In any case LIM would be NZ's best choice as a South American gateway.


Regards,



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2801 posts, RR: 20
Reply 31, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16343 times:

Quoting VCy (Reply 27):
Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?

QF could fly it and LAN could codeshare with LAN Argentina directly feeding. There is no reason not to allow it now that AR has withdrawn from the route. QF has 744's it could deploy to do this and, long term, A380's if the route warrants it so there will always be a quad aircraft to deploy.

Quoting dcajet (Reply 29):
And leasing A340-300 from the mothership would be of no use: the 300 does not have the legs to make it to SYD from EZE and the penalties it would be subject to would make any operation inviable.

Again, QF has 744's and 744ER's it can use to do SYD-EZE direct if the LAN/QF j/v decided they wanted to fly it.


User currently offlineqantas077 From Australia, joined Jan 2004, 5825 posts, RR: 41
Reply 32, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16313 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 23):
Any pax to/from BNE/MEL/ADL/PER would be able to avoid a domestic to international and vvv transfer with my model and could fly straight into Buenos Aires or Sao Paulo.

or they could fly EK/QR or EY via the middle east and onwards to Latin America.

SQ also do it although two stops is a little more tiring.



a true friend is someone who sees the pain in your eyes, while everyone else believes the smile on your face.
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 33, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16150 times:
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Quoting VCy (Reply 27):
Can't LAN pick up the route and fly EZE-SYD?

Even if LATAM's Argentine affiliate had the right a/c to operate the EZE-SYD route, as well as approval from the ANAC, LAN Argentina would never operate EZE-SYD. LAN's SCL hub is well positioned as South America's gateway to Oceania. The SCL hub provides multiple daily flights to destinations e.g. AEP, COR, EZE, GIG, GRU, LIM, MDZ, MVD, etc.


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5937 posts, RR: 30
Reply 34, posted (5 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 16119 times:
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Quoting dcajet (Reply 29):
Only if LA would be the applicant. If 4M would apply, there is technically (and politically) no reason to oppose the application. After all, it is an Argentinian airline.

Well, "techncically", but you know how 4M has struggled to get even more domestic routes. There´s one they wanted to add internationally and they´ve been getting the run around for three years now. That´s why I said "This government" Maybe after 2015 things may change.



MGGS
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 35, posted (5 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 15941 times:
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Quoting AR385 (Reply 34):
There´s one they wanted to add internationally and they´ve been getting the run around for three years now.

The COR-GRU route. However, both LA and LP operate daily flights linking COR to SCL and LIM. LAN Perú used to operate LIM-ROS daily, but the ANAC revoked their operating permits in 2012. LAN Argentina applied to operate ROS-LIM and the ANAC denied that request.

[Edited 2013-11-10 03:02:36]

User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 11839 posts, RR: 18
Reply 36, posted (5 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 15420 times:
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Quoting Sydscott (Reply 22):
Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.

Not really. Rather you would have the choice to either fly to SCL or Tahiti depending on your alliance leanings

A stop over in PPT/RAR is certainly the route I would happily take, nothing beats a nice 24-48 hour transit stop relaxing on a beach in between flights


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (5 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 15132 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Thread starter):

Small point, and I suggest that the thread title is changed, QF and LA will be a duopoly, not a monopoly.

Quoting Sydscott (Reply 6):
It will be interesting to see if QF/LAN move to increase services. QF is already operating a 4th weekly service over the Christmas period and with the withdrawl of AR there is probably some more traffic to be captured. If the Argentine Govt also allowed QF to code with LAN Argentina they may find QF returning to EZE as well.

Subject to aircraft, no doubt it will be considered. But does anyone know the pax nos that AR is carrying? How many extra services per week could it support? Also, do QF and AR have any interline agreement?

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 11):
Hi Miles, QF and LA have a very tight relationship,

They are in oneworld but they dont have antitrust so they dont coordinate. QF will have to make decisions independently of LA until this changes.


User currently offlinePatagon From Chile, joined Aug 2011, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (5 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14836 times:

This is my opinion about this subject:
1- In term of commerce, Chile, Argentina & Brazil are big dairy producers country.
2- New Zealand companies are own of a lot of local dairy companies in South America.
3- Argentina government is controlling the import & exports of dollars, this is one of the reason why some airlines are leaving the country & some international companies (who know is the government will take control of the dairy farm tomorrow?) are leaving too.
4- Lima & Bogota does not have a New Zealand embassy. Santiago's embassy work also for the consulate in Colombia and Peru.
5- Only Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay are in the list of the visa waiver for New Zealand.

If you want to compete with LA/QF, SCL will be the the best airport.

NZ will have to schedule their flights in order to connect with CM to PTY, AV to LIM, BOG and GRU (if they open the route)

It will make no sense to fly all the way to GRU if you have to return to SCL or LIM or EZE.


User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2427 posts, RR: 1
Reply 39, posted (5 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13690 times:

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 30):
Indeed. Problem is Air New Zealand doesn't really have spare aircraft to operate a hypothetical AKL-LIM-AKL route. The 747s are on their way out and they only have a handful of 77Ws.

Seems NZ also is getting rid of its B767-300ER which could operate AKL-LIM-AKL routed via RAR (which is sort of a part of New Zealand) or PPT or - less desired - via both RAR and PPT.
NZ already flies AKL-LAX via RAR w/B767-300.

Quoting Patagon (Reply 38):
If you want to compete with LA/QF, SCL will be the the best airport.

If NZ doesn't want to compete w/LA/QF, then Star Alliance hub LIM is the best choice.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 40, posted (5 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13651 times:

Quoting dcajet (Reply 26):
Those A340-200 are scheduled to start leaving the fleet in 2014 and the airline can't justify keeping an uncompetitive product for the sake of just one route, which on top of everything is not the top revenue producer and at the end of the day the Oceania route was, de facto, dictating the long haul fleet composition. Adding another type (A340-500 or 600) just because of SYD does not make sense so the airline took the painful but correct decision, imo. Sad but such is reality.

WIth the departure of SYD from the route map, AR can now look at twins such as a 777/787/A350 for all its future fleet needs, for the very first time as the reason for "4 engines 4 long haul" will have gone away come 4/1/14.

There were so many comments from last week's thread on the ex-SQ A340-500 that many assumed AR would simply procure these [high cost] examples to replace its long-haul fleet. It is a shocking and pleasant surprise to learn AR is actually paying attention to financial criteria when making commercial decisions. Dedicating its long-haul focus to key markets in North America and western Europe with efficient, two-engine aircraft is a favorable development, indeed.

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 37):
Small point, and I suggest that the thread title is changed, QF and LA will be a duopoly, not a monopoly.
Quoting qf2220 (Reply 37):
They are in oneworld but they dont have antitrust so they dont coordinate. QF will have to make decisions independently of LA until this changes.

I specifically chose the term, "monopoly" to describe the LA/QF commercial relationship, rather than "duopoly". While the two carriers are separate entities, they coordinate several operational elements on the SCL-ACK-SYD route, including an existing code-share agreement. Of course, they have not [YET] received anti-trust authorization from either Chilean or Australian regulators to operate under a full joint venture agreement with anti-trust "immunization".

Nonetheless, both carriers have acknowledged they are interested in developing their relationship further, including a full JV. The LATAM merger has distracted LA management over the past three years and QF now hopes executives will come to an agreement:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/qanta...for-latam-ties-20130422-2iam5.html

So, while LA and QF are not coordinating PRICES, they are coordinating practically everything else. I would not categorize these carriers as "competitors" on the route...


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (5 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13538 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 40):
they coordinate several operational elements on the SCL-ACK-SYD route, including an existing code-share agreement

As far as I am aware this is the extent of the cooperation. Without antitrust they cannot cooperate on anything. The codeshares I think are hard block codeshares similar to the SA/QF flights between Aust and South Africa. Any ancilliary services such as airport, ground handling etc are likely to be not significant (and i know the lounge offered is the AA lounge). So i still think a duopoly is more appropriate  

Your link above is the one im aware of as well. We can hope that when this is sorted out they can work on a detailed codeshare agreement for Latin America.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 42, posted (5 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13355 times:
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Quoting qf2220 (Reply 41):
Any ancilliary services such as airport, ground handling etc are likely to be not significant (and i know the lounge offered is the AA lounge).

Premium passengers traveling on any oneworld carrier from SCL, as well as passengers with elite status with any oneworld carrier are permitted access to LAN's two VIP lounges at SCL.


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (5 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 13040 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 42):
Premium passengers traveling on any oneworld carrier from SCL, as well as passengers with elite status with any oneworld carrier are permitted access to LAN's two VIP lounges at SCL.

Agreed, however the QF promoted lounge is the Admirals Lounge, not Neruda or Mistral (even though they are all essentially the same offering, I have noted no significant differences between the 3). QF Club members can only access the Admirals.


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 44, posted (5 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 12806 times:

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 39):
Seems NZ also is getting rid of its B767-300ER which could operate AKL-LIM-AKL routed via RAR (which is sort of a part of New Zealand) or PPT or - less desired - via both RAR and PPT.
NZ already flies AKL-LAX via RAR w/B767-300.

I know, but if NZ wants to attract high-yielding pax and promote AKL as a stopover between South America and Australasia, then they should fly AKL-LIM-AKL nonstop.




.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 39):
Quoting Patagon (Reply 38):
If you want to compete with LA/QF, SCL will be the the best airport.
If NZ doesn't want to compete w/LA/QF, then Star Alliance hub LIM is the best choice.

Indeed. Why on Earth would NZ want to compete directly with LAN and Qantas ? SCL is a Oneworld hub.



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 45, posted (5 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 12646 times:

Quoting dcajet (Reply 26):
Adding another type (A340-500 or 600) just because of SYD does not make sense so the airline took the painful but correct decision, imo.

but they have…they are getting 345s…..



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinedcajet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 397 posts, RR: 4
Reply 46, posted (5 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 12431 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 45):
but they have…they are getting 345s…..

No they are not. That turned out to be either a rumor or the planned lease to AR did not materialize. Notice how the airline never said anything about the A345. Right now AR only has 3 A330-200 and 20 738 on order.

Rds,



"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (5 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 12246 times:

Quoting dcajet (Reply 46):
That turned out to be either a rumor or the planned lease to AR did not materialize. Notice how the airline never said anything about the A345

So no A345s for AR??


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 48, posted (5 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 12219 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 47):
So no A345s for AR??

Nope. Once the A340 fleet is retired AR will no longer operate four-engine planes.



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 49, posted (5 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 12086 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 16):
You'll need a quad to fly this. Sorry to break it, but I doubt this route will happen.

Correct. No equipment and the competition is too intense.

Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
Additionally, the yields should be optimised by the fact that a large proportion of tickets would be from SYD/AKL/GRU/EZE to Tahiti. This means that none of the sectors fall into the inefficient ULH domain.
Quoting Sydscott (Reply 24):
If you're going to Rio, Brasilia, Montevideo etc you will need to make a transit stop in South America under your model vs making the stop via SYD, of AKL, under the existing QF arrangement.

You guys forget about the Gulf Carriers ? You can fly from Australia to Rio de Janeiro with one stop. From Rio you can reach the Northeast easier and quicker. You can connect quickly to VIX, BSB or CNF, and even to Sao Paulo domestic airport without a lot of traffic to reach the new business district (Faria Lima).
This means more competition and disruptive yields.

Quoting AR385 (Reply 34):
Well, "techncically", but you know how 4M has struggled to get even more domestic routes. There´s one they wanted to add internationally and they´ve been getting the run around for three years now. That´s why I said "This government" Maybe after 2015 things may change.

4M tried to begin EZE-GIG also...

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 47):
So no A345s for AR??

Yes.... no A345's and that's the smart decision they had in years.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 50, posted (5 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 11825 times:

Quoting Patagon (Reply 38):

NZ will have to schedule their flights in order to connect with CM to PTY, AV to LIM, BOG and GRU (if they open the route)

It will make no sense to fly all the way to GRU if you have to return to SCL or LIM or EZE.

Don't know what the treaty agreements are between Argentina and New Zealand with regard to on flights from Argentina by a New Zealand carrier but would the Govt of Argentina let NZ fly from EZE on to GRU in the same way that the Govt. of New Zealand let AR fly on to SYD?



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8488 posts, RR: 14
Reply 51, posted (5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11577 times:
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Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 30):
Indeed. Problem is Air New Zealand doesn't really have spare aircraft to operate a hypothetical AKL-LIM-AKL route. The 747s are on their way out and they only have a handful of 77Ws.

In any case LIM would be NZ's best choice as a South American gateway.

Actually, I did a little bit of mucking around on the great circle mapper website. A nonstop AKL-LIM flight diverting its path via 27 degrees S 130 W fits within current ETOPS 180 with a massive extra diversion of .... wait for it... 129 nm ( 5944 nm versus a direct GC distance of 5815 nm) Obviously this is based on still air, I have no idea what effect prevailing winds would have, however, this is only slightly longer than the existing AKL-SFO/LAX flights and less than the existing AKL-YVR flight (GC 6121 nm) . This means that it would not require 744/77W but could be operated by either 772ER freed up by the introduction of the 787-9 or by the 787-9 once they get a few more of them.

I have forgotten how to embed an image from Great Circle Mapper, but it would provide, via Star member Avianca, one stop connections from AKL to a number of major Central and South American cities. I would imagine twice a week over the winter and three times a week over the Southern hemisphere summer could provide a reasonable alternative to start with for Star/Virgin Australia frequent flyers seeking an alternative to QF/LA. Obviously it is not going to match the network offered by LATAM , but given that there is no reasonable option currently for Star/Virgin Australia flyers across the South Pacific to South America it surely would pick up some traffic. ( and is not reliant on 5th/6th freedom rights which NZ might/might not be able to obtain to run a 'scissor hub' at PPT ). Whether that traffic would generate sufficient return to justify the route is of course at this stage unknown.



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 52, posted (5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11307 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 51):
I have forgotten how to embed an image from Great Circle Mapper, but it would provide, via Star member Avianca, one stop connections from AKL to a number of major Central and South American cities. I would imagine twice a week over the winter and three times a week over the Southern hemisphere summer could provide a reasonable alternative to start with for Star/Virgin Australia frequent flyers seeking an alternative to QF/LA. Obviously it is not going to match the network offered by LATAM , but given that there is no reasonable option currently for Star/Virgin Australia flyers across the South Pacific to South America it surely would pick up some traffic. ( and is not reliant on 5th/6th freedom rights which NZ might/might not be able to obtain to run a 'scissor hub' at PPT ). Whether that traffic would generate sufficient return to justify the route is of course at this stage unknown.

This all sounds perfectly reasonable, with a viable Star Alliance hub at LIM serving the entire continent.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 49):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 16):
You'll need a quad to fly this. Sorry to break it, but I doubt this route will happen.

Correct. No equipment and the competition is too intense.

Actually, no. As I mentioned here, ETOPS 330 was granted two years ago. Nonetheless, I am unaware whether the civil aviation authorities in Australia, New Zealand, Chile and Peru would extend ETOPS 330 to their routes:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 19):
Yes, Boeing announced two years ago its 77L, 77W and 77E [with GE engines only initially, with RR and PW to follow] would be granted ETOPS 330 designation. Therefore, I do not see how this would be a problem for NZ, or even LA if they had to swap a couple 77W from their affiliate LATAM carrier, TAM/JJ.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=20295&item=2070

A bigger issue for both NZ and LA will be when the 787-8 and 787-9 receive ETOPS 330 designation. That could truly make the South America-Oceania market a competitive one.

Conclusion:

- LA/QF, while yet to receive JV ATI from regulatory agencies, operate more as partners, than competitors
- NZ could offer an attractive alternative to these oneworld members for the Oceania-South America market
- LIM is a Star Alliance hub and a key focus for member AV and its affiliate carriers, offering excellent connections
- Routes via EK or some other ME3 carrier represent a massive detour: SYD-DXB-GRU is over 24M km, vs. only 16M km via AKL-LIM-GRU


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 53, posted (5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11291 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 51):
Actually, I did a little bit of mucking around on the great circle mapper website. A nonstop AKL-LIM flight diverting its path via 27 degrees S 130 W fits within current ETOPS 180 with a massive extra diversion of .... wait for it... 129 nm ( 5944 nm versus a direct GC distance of 5815 nm) Obviously this is based on still air, I have no idea what effect prevailing winds would have, however, this is only slightly longer than the existing AKL-SFO/LAX flights and less than the existing AKL-YVR flight (GC 6121 nm) . This means that it would not require 744/77W but could be operated by either 772ER freed up by the introduction of the 787-9 or by the 787-9 once they get a few more of them.

Very interesting. Methinks that the new Boeing 787-9 would be perfect for a nonstop AKL-LIM flight. Moreover, the way that NZ has configured it (only 18 business class seats plus 21 premium economy seats) makes it the right aircraft type in NZ's fleet to open up such route.

[Edited 2013-11-10 11:00:48]

[Edited 2013-11-10 11:01:26]


JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2427 posts, RR: 1
Reply 54, posted (5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11218 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 51):
A nonstop AKL-LIM flight diverting its path via 27 degrees S 130 W fits within current ETOPS 180 with a massive extra diversion of .... wait for it... 129 nm ( 5944 nm versus a direct GC distance of 5815 nm) Obviously this is based on still air, I have no idea what effect prevailing winds would have, however, this is only slightly longer than the existing AKL-SFO/LAX flights and less than the existing AKL-YVR flight (GC 6121 nm) .

While routes between western North America (YVR/SFO/LAX) and AKL are kind of north to south but LIM - AKL is east to west.. Not only ETOPS but winds may take a toll on a South America - New Zealand non-stop flight.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1564 posts, RR: 9
Reply 55, posted (5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11098 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 49):
You guys forget about the Gulf Carriers ? You can fly from Australia to Rio de Janeiro with one stop. From Rio you can reach the Northeast easier and quicker. You can connect quickly to VIX, BSB or CNF, and even to Sao Paulo domestic airport without a lot of traffic to reach the new business district (Faria Lima).
This means more competition and disruptive yields.

I don't think anyone forgot, it's just that from SYD to GIG is an extra 5000+ nm if you go via the DXB rather than a more direct South Pacific route. Even from ADL, a routing through DXB is 4000 nm longer than ADL-SYD-SCL-GIG. That's an awful lot of detour for most higher yielding business traffic.

It's about 1800 nm longer from PER, which is more tolerable when also eliminating a stop.


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 56, posted (5 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 10850 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 52):
- LA/QF, while yet to receive JV ATI from regulatory agencies, operate more as partners, than competitors

I think they are yet to even apply for any ATI in reality! Any cooperation they do is reactive to the moves that the other carrier makes public announcements about.


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 57, posted (5 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10365 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 51):
I have forgotten how to embed an image from Great Circle Mapper, but it would provide, via Star member Avianca, one stop connections from AKL to a number of major Central and South American cities.

Below is what you've described and showing 180 and 240 minute ETOPS... the problem is, a lot of the major trade/business cities like Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro are so much better served by LA via SCL. If NZ could, I believed their best bet would be to go via EZE, particularly now AR are no longer on the route but only if they can fly on to GRU and/or connect the AV Brasil and *alliance partners at EZE.

http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=mel-akl%0d%0abne-akl%0d%0aper-akl%0d%0aadl-akl%0d%0aSyd-akl-lim-gru%0d%0alim-gig%0d%0alim-eze%0d%0alim-scl%0d%0alim-bog%0d%0alim-mvd%0d%0alim-pty%0d%0alim-%0d%0a&E=180&E=240&MS=wls&MR=1200&MX=720x360&PM=*



come visit the south pacific
User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 58, posted (5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10151 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 50):
would the Govt of Argentina let NZ fly from EZE on to GRU

I don't see why not, many, many airlines have operated GRU-EZE tags over the years

Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
A serious commercial advantage for Air NZ and Virgin Australia is that it would render obsolete the option of flying via Santiago on QF or LA to get to Brazil or Argentina.

AKL-PPT-GRU is 9,085 and AKL-SCL-GRU is 7,637. Therefore you are suggesting that a flight with an additional three hours flying time is going to offer a "serious commercial advantage". SYD-SCL-GRU vs SYD-PPT-GRU is even worse: the additional flying time would be almost 4 hours.

With those sorts of times I will gladly take SCL any day. I have no interest in wasting time in PPT for a few days (a few days I could have spent at my destination instead) and, as other people suggested, your proposal is less than useless for anyone who is not going to GRU or EZE. It requires them to fly a significantly longer route and adds an additional stop.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4679 posts, RR: 4
Reply 59, posted (5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10119 times:

It's time for QF to evaluate the retirement of the remaining B744's & bump up frequency. Sorry to say but Oneworld is dominating the Australasia - South American market with AR service being dropped plus TAM leaving Star.

EK8413



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlinePA515 From New Zealand, joined Nov 2007, 834 posts, RR: 0
Reply 60, posted (5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 9981 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 57):
If NZ could, I believed their best bet would be to go via EZE, particularly now AR are no longer on the route but only if they can fly on to GRU and/or connect the AV Brasil and *alliance partners at EZE.

AKL-EZE can be done as EDTO 240 with a deviation towards IPC, like the AKL-EZE-AKL charter last year with 777-300(ER) ZK-OKQ, then on to GRU and/or GIG. That would require two crews based at EZE, but unavoidable as connections at EZE are a problem with AR using AEP for most of it's regional and domestic flights. There are some exceptions that connect to AR's EZE-SYD-EZE flights, but I expect they will go to AEP from Apr 2014. The best connection is a same plane through flight. An EZE-GRU/GIG tag on could connect with VS to LHR, be useful to other Star Alliance carriers, and be sold locally. If Air NZ did AKL-LIM as well, crews could be positioned between EZE and LIM reducing overall costs.

PA515


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 61, posted (5 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 9744 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 57):
Below is what you've described and showing 180 and 240 minute ETOPS... the problem is, a lot of the major trade/business cities like Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro are so much better served by LA via SCL. If NZ could, I believed their best bet would be to go via EZE, particularly now AR are no longer on the route but only if they can fly on to GRU and/or connect the AV Brasil and *alliance partners at EZE.

Not to nitpick, but Montevideo is hardly a major trade/business city. As a matter of fact, Lima is the fourth largest city in South America after SAO, BUE and RIO. The fifth largest one is Bogotá, ahead of Santiago.

That said, I do agree that EZE would be a good opportunity for NZ.



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 62, posted (5 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9494 times:

Quoting Patagon (Reply 38):
If you want to compete with LA/QF, SCL will be the the best airport.

NZ will have to schedule their flights in order to connect with CM to PTY, AV to LIM, BOG and GRU (if they open the route)

It will make no sense to fly all the way to GRU if you have to return to SCL or LIM or EZE.

The West Coast of South America is not even in the Top 100 Future Air NZ markets.

They are interested in Sao Paulo, and if Argentina offers some benefits as well they would take that into account.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 49):
You guys forget about the Gulf Carriers ? You can fly from Australia to Rio de Janeiro with one stop. From Rio you can reach the Northeast easier and quicker.

One-stop, but traversing an entire continent plus 2 oceans to get to a destination which is only one ocean away.

I have never met anyone who has flown Emirates from Australia to South America.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 58):
AKL-PPT-GRU is 9,085 and AKL-SCL-GRU is 7,637

Sure.

But that kind of difference is something that anyone flying Emirates to Europe from places like BNE and AKL has long been used to. Or people like myself who fly NZ on BNE-AKL-LAX rather than QF or VA BNE-LAX.

And more importantly:

1) From the airline's point of view the PPT scissor hub combines several markets which have limited volumes but good yields.

2) From the passenger's point of view, the Qantas flights to Santiago don't have particularly pleasant scheduling, and flying beyond is an absolute ordeal. You leave Sydney at lunchtime, fly 12 hours and then arrive in late morning, so even Business Class passengers tend not to sleep before final descent. It's a horrible way to get to Brazil. The Papeete option would involve an extra 1300 miles, but it would also allow for proper sleep on at least one of the two sectors in both directions.

For long-haul business flying I find that the number of stops or miles is not the impediment but rather scheduling is. Air NZ allows me to sleep a full night in Business Class both northbound and southbound across the Pacific, which is why I fly with them.

Similarly, when I go to South America I nowadays fly into LAX on Air NZ and then connect on Copa via Panama.


User currently offlineMilesDependent From Australia, joined Sep 2001, 854 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (5 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 9442 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 62):
Similarly, when I go to South America I nowadays fly into LAX on Air NZ and then connect on Copa via Panama.

I would never do this when a direct SYD-SCL or AKL-SCL was available. I mean never, ever!

Transiting LAX is usually a nightmare. I have been to PTY a few times (most recently 2011), and found it terrible as well. So over-crowded I couldn't wait to get out of there. But, worst of all, Copa's business class is not much better than premium Y on QF 747. Not even thinking about how much more time this route would take, risk of missed connection and delays etc. As a business traveller I would never go this way.

Quoting koruman (Reply 62):
From the passenger's point of view, the Qantas flights to Santiago don't have particularly pleasant scheduling, and flying beyond is an absolute ordeal. You leave Sydney at lunchtime, fly 12 hours and then arrive in late morning, so even Business Class passengers tend not to sleep before final descent.

You could say the same about almost all SYD-LAX flights as well. Do you suggest we go via DXB to get some sleep?  


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24613 posts, RR: 86
Reply 64, posted (5 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 9406 times:
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Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 13):
And if NZ keeps its B767-300ER for a while more, AKL-LIM could be flown via RAR with no ETOPS issues.

Having read all the bright ideas on this thread I like yours best - through RAR, with feed from SYD. I don't really care where they fly on to - LIM, SCL or (my favourite) MEX, or all three of 'em.

The two largest NZ populations of South Americans are Brazilian and Chilean (although neither is large) and I always thought AKL-SCL would be the go, but I was slightly surprised by the emphasis that the NZ government places on Peru:

http://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/export/export-markets/south-america/peru/

"Peru is a focus country under the Government's Latin America Strategy. New Zealand and Peru work together in APEC and Peru is participating in negotiations for an expanded Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement."

We have larger trading partners in South America, but every young Kiwi I know going to the continent has Machu Picchu at the top of their must-see list.

How are the beaches in Peru?  

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 6897 posts, RR: 13
Reply 65, posted (5 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 9253 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
How are the beaches in Peru?

The whole Pacific coast is pretty sandy like a desert. There's some ok beaches in Lima though.. good surf too I hear

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
We have larger trading partners in South America, but every young Kiwi I know going to the continent has Machu Picchu at the top of their must-see list.

I rate the whole continent. Colombia,Venezuela, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay are all fantastic. I need to go to Ecuador, Bolivia and Guyana on my next trip. Each time I go back I discover something new that makes me want to return again.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24613 posts, RR: 86
Reply 66, posted (5 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 9193 times:
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Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 65):
I rate the whole continent. Colombia,Venezuela, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay are all fantastic. I need to go to Ecuador, Bolivia and Guyana on my next trip. Each time I go back I discover something new that makes me want to return again.

  

I went to Ecuador on a banana boat and had a great time in Guayaquil. I'd go back in a heartbeat.

Otherwise I only know the east coast, and Mexico, of course,

mariner

[Edited 2013-11-10 23:25:27]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 67, posted (5 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 9048 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 62):
For long-haul business flying I find that the number of stops or miles is not the impediment but rather scheduling is. Air NZ allows me to sleep a full night in Business Class both northbound and southbound across the Pacific, which is why I fly with them.
Quoting MilesDependent (Reply 63):
You could say the same about almost all SYD-LAX flights as well. Do you suggest we go via DXB to get some sleep?

No, but as I wrote, it's why I fly from Australia to LAX via Auckland.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 68, posted (5 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8685 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 62):
Similarly, when I go to South America I nowadays fly into LAX on Air NZ and then connect on Copa via Panama.

Hence my original suggestion of AKL-PTY. Love it or hate it…CMs hub at PTY is very powerful.

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
How are the beaches in Peru?  

Most of the Australians and New Zealanders somehow end up in CUN before going home.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 69, posted (5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8529 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 62):
I have never met anyone who has flown Emirates from Australia to South America.

EK has a substantial chunk of the market between Brazil and Australia. QR to a lesser extent.

The PPT idea ia a good one. Just don't oversell it. Its biggest problem is the quality of the traffic that will get on/off in PPT. Flights that rely almost entirely on connections only survive in massive hubs.


User currently offlineleonardoq From Australia, joined Nov 2011, 45 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8471 times:

Although SCL is a good hub for South America, it has only two direct options to Brazil (gru and gig).Passengers have to connect in GRU or GIG to fly to remaining cities there. AR imo offered better direct connectivity not only to Brazil ( more than 6 different options) but also the same options compared to LAN.

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:12:22]

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:13:37]

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:26:48]

User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12877 posts, RR: 12
Reply 71, posted (5 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8445 times:

I wonder if AR's decision is due to giving more fights to the USA as seen as more profitable ?

User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 72, posted (5 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8340 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 57):
Below is what you've described and showing 180 and 240 minute ETOPS... the problem is, a lot of the major trade/business cities like Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro are so much better served by LA via SCL. If NZ could, I believed their best bet would be to go via EZE, particularly now AR are no longer on the route but only if they can fly on to GRU and/or connect the AV Brasil and *alliance partners at EZE.

I think that map you created illustrates how well located LIM is for NZ. The economies of Peru, Colombia and Panama are booming and LIM serves these much better than SCL. I think Brazil is equally served from LIM and SCL. I think the only advantage SCL has over LIM is SCL and EZE.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 73, posted (5 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8181 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 72):

I think that map you created illustrates how well located LIM is for NZ. The economies of Peru, Colombia and Panama are booming and LIM serves these much better than SCL. I think Brazil is equally served from LIM and SCL. I think the only advantage SCL has over LIM is SCL and EZE.

Even with the poor geography, SCL has a significant advantage. The GDP per capita of Chile is $15K USD, Panama's is $10K, Colombia is $8K and Peru is $6.5K. Brazil and Argentina are at about $11.5K, but looking at Sao Paulo state only, the GDP per capita is close to $20K on 40 million people. The route that drives Australia to South America is SYD-GRU.


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 74, posted (5 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8122 times:

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 61):
Not to nitpick, but Montevideo is hardly a major trade/business city.

While you're right, Uruguay has a lot of trade and commerce with New Zealand through investments by New Zealand businesses in the dairy industry in the Uruguayan pampas. There are 'front-of-cabin' passengers flying to/from Uruguay/New Zealand.

Quoting United787 (Reply 72):
The economies of Peru, Colombia and Panama are booming and LIM serves these much better than SCL.

It's fantastic that these economies are booming but I wonder at this stage how much trade-commerce-tourism etc they each account for with New Zealand (and Australia).

Currently, from the figures I've seen, Brazil has the largest visitor numbers to New Zealand with 11,587 people coming in 2011, and then, in descending order, Argentina 9,695, Chile 5,382, Colombia 1,026. Incidentally from Central America/Caribbean, Mexico is the only country of significance with 3,432 people visiting New Zealand in 2011. The rest of South and Central American states number only in their hundreds or tens.

With regard to New Zealanders traveling outbound in 2011 - Argentina 3,249, Brazil 3,214, Chile 2,219, Peru 1,514. The rest of South America figures only in the hundreds at most and Mexico comes in at 1,922, the only other Latin American/Caribbean state in the thousands.

Given the above figures, I'd suggest NZ would be best placed pursuing flights to Buenos Aires (presumably EZE unless AEP can become a viable option) with a tag-on to GRU. Connections to *alliance partners would be essential for connections to other major destinations - BOG, LIM, SCL, GIG, SSA, BSB, FOR, BHZ and MAO.

* figures from New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. I'm not able to give figures on Australia - which of course would have a massive impact on the overall picture, not to mention the possibility of New Zealand providing an airbridge transit point between South America and Asia.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 71):
I wonder if AR's decision is due to giving more fights to the USA as seen as more profitable ?

Agreed, particularly with the aircraft available to them.

Regards
MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 75, posted (5 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8083 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 74):
With regard to New Zealanders traveling outbound in 2011 - Argentina 3,249, Brazil 3,214, Chile 2,219, Peru 1,514. The rest of South America figures only in the hundreds at most and Mexico comes in at 1,922, the only other Latin American/Caribbean state in the thousands.

Given the above figures, I'd suggest NZ would be best placed pursuing flights to Buenos Aires (presumably EZE unless AEP can become a viable option) with a tag-on to GRU. Connections to *alliance partners would be essential for connections to other major destinations - BOG, LIM, SCL, GIG, SSA, BSB, FOR, BHZ and MAO.

But how many of those Kiwi's trips to Argentina were because of AR's flight to Buenos Aires? If NZ had a flight to LIM instead, I suspect many people going to South America would include Peru in their itinerary instead of Argentina that may not have previously. I know that is the way I plan long trips. I plan stop overs to countries specifically because my routing takes me there. I had stop overs in Germany, Singapore, Japan because of connections there not because I had sought out going there. My one trip to New Zealand was because UA used to fly LAX-AKL-MEL and I was going to study in Melbourne for 6 months. If I was going to Australia today, New Zealand may or may not end up on the itinerary depending on my routing.


User currently offlineMD11junkie From Switzerland, joined May 2005, 3135 posts, RR: 58
Reply 76, posted (5 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8052 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 73):

Where do you get your numbers from? According to the World Factbook in 2012, Argentina's GDP is U$S 18'400 per capita.

Chile's U$S 18'700 per capita - quite less of a difference to what you attribute. The different is not significant.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ar.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ci.html

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 71):
I wonder if AR's decision is due to giving more fights to the USA as seen as more profitable

No, it actually responds to the companies inability to hold a decision and listening to a two-bit consultor led by former-airline employees.



There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 77, posted (5 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8029 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 73):
Even with the poor geography, SCL has a significant advantage. The GDP per capita of Chile is $15K USD, Panama's is $10K, Colombia is $8K and Peru is $6.5K. Brazil and Argentina are at about $11.5K, but looking at Sao Paulo state only, the GDP per capita is close to $20K on 40 million people. The route that drives Australia to South America is SYD-GRU.
Quoting motorhussy (Reply 74):
Given the above figures, I'd suggest NZ would be best placed pursuing flights to Buenos Aires (presumably EZE unless AEP can become a viable option) with a tag-on to GRU. Connections to *alliance partners would be essential for connections to other major destinations - BOG, LIM, SCL, GIG, SSA, BSB, FOR, BHZ and MAO.

It appears our thread has evolved into a discussion evaluating the relative merits of LIM vs. SCL vs. EZE vs. GRU as a new destination for NZ.

GRU: No one would deny GRU is the most attractive market for traffic to/from Oceania [Australia plus NZ]. Sao Paulo is, of course, the largest and most important city on the continent, and the industrial, media, and financial center for the region. Nonetheless, GRU has capacity issues and is in the midst of a massive multi-year expansion program. Also, AV Brasil, O6, has yet to join Star Alliance and does not [yet] offer connecting flights throughout Chile, Argentina and Uruguay. For those interested, O6 is not owned by Avianca Holdings S.A. Rather, O6 is owned by Synergy Group, which itself is the majority shareholder in Avianca Holdings. AV and O6 maintain a series of service and license agreements between themselves, but remain 'separate' entities, for now. AV just completed their IPO on the NYSE last week, so a potential share swap could materialize sometime in the future.

LIM: As mentioned, AV Peru is growing quickly and offers excellent hub connections throughout the region. Peru is smaller and less commercially connected to Oceania than Brazil and Argentina. Nonetheless, LIM is attractive from an operational standpoint and is also in the midst of a massive infrastructure expansion program, which will add a second runway and an entirely new central terminal.

SCL: LA and its oneworld partners dominate this facility. H2 is Chile's second-largest carrier and rumors regarding its eventual acquisition by AV have been circulating for years and years now. Nonetheless, Star Alliance partner connections to the region are sparse here.

EZE: Would be ideal for NZ, however, regional Star Alliance connectivity is similarly thin in this market. As all of us know rather well, decisions by civil aviation regulatory authorities in Buenos Aires have been, shall we say, opaque at best. While I doubt the Argentine authorities would ever want to block NZ from entering the market, difficulties could present themselves and NZ may prefer dealing with authorities in Peru or Chile, rather than Argentina.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 74):
Uruguay has a lot of trade and commerce with New Zealand through investments by New Zealand businesses in the dairy industry in the Uruguayan pampas. There are 'front-of-cabin' passengers flying to/from Uruguay/New Zealand.

MVD is a very small, yet attractive market. In addition to dairy and farming, conventions and tourism, wealth management and financial services, IT services and BPO and even the booming energy sector are all growing sectors for MVD.


User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 78, posted (5 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 8015 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 73):
Even with the poor geography, SCL has a significant advantage. The GDP per capita of Chile is $15K USD, Panama's is $10K, Colombia is $8K and Peru is $6.5K. Brazil and Argentina are at about $11.5K

Care to share with us your source ? Because that's not true at all.

Here, take a look at these World Bank figures (2012).

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/...bapi_data_value-last&sort=desc

According to the World Bank, the GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity is:

* 22,352 USD for Chile
* 16,615 USD for Panama
* 11,909 USD for Brazil
* 10,932 USD for Peru
* 10,583 USD for Colombia

Needless to say, the Brazilian economy is not growing as fast as before, while the Colombian and Peruvian ones are booming.



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 79, posted (5 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 7971 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 75):
But how many of those Kiwi's trips to Argentina were because of AR's flight to Buenos Aires?

Agreed. I meant to point that out, that I couldn't confirm 100% as to how accurate that was, although I do recall that on the New Zealand customs departure card (from where this data is gleaned) that is says something along the lines of 'where is your primary destination' and that is why Peru does figure quite prominently on the outbound figures. Argentina is a strong destination for New Zealanders, for tourism and trade - the country is perceived as quite European by many of us and we have quite strong sporting ties with Argentina too. In terms of trade, Argentina is second to Brazil in terms of value followed by Chile then Peru.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 73):
The route that drives Australia to South America is SYD-GRU.

Agreed, and I think NZ should take advantage of that. And given AR's retreat from the route, there is another big opportunity - the biggest being these two birds with one stone.

Regards
MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 80, posted (5 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 7969 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 74):
The rest of South America figures only in the hundreds at most and Mexico comes in at 1,922, the only other Latin American/Caribbean state in the thousands.

This Mex NZ can't be right….891 People alone with NZ passports crossed the land border into Mex from Belize in 2012 according the Immigration figures I have for Belize..and that number is up in 2013 (so far).

Mexico may not be counting those land figures especially since the ADO busses do that run in the middle of the night.

I myself have driven across that border in the middle of the night with the Mex Immigration officials sleeping and the border guards just waiving you through.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 81, posted (5 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7833 times:

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 76):
Where do you get your numbers from? According to the World Factbook in 2012, Argentina's GDP is U$S 18'400 per capita.

Chile's U$S 18'700 per capita - quite less of a difference to what you attribute. The different is not significant.
Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 78):

Care to share with us your source ? Because that's not true at all.

You are both looking at PPP. PPP is a poor metric for international air travel because international air travel prices do not vary a lot from country to country. If we want to compare food prices or even bus travel across countries, fair, use PPP. For air travel, especially international, don't do it.

My source is the IMF.

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 78):
Needless to say, the Brazilian economy is not growing as fast as before, while the Colombian and Peruvian ones are booming.

Definitely true about Brazil. But the economy of Peru is about as big as that of the Rio de Janeiro metro area. Peru needs to boom for a long time. As for Bogota, just flying through the US is not a bad idea. Same PTY.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 82, posted (5 months 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7775 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 81):
PPP is a poor metric for international air travel because international air travel prices do not vary a lot from country to country.

True, Nominal GDP is vastly better measure for highly-fungible international goods and services, such as air travel.

IMF/World Bank GDP nominal data is similar, while CIA Factbook is a bit higher; all these sources have 2010 data. However, data for Sao Paulo state is 2007, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which may not be comparable to the international sources. The IBGE states Brazil GDP per capita [Nominal] at USD 11.2 thousand, compared to USD 10.4 thousand as calculated by CIA.

CIA Factbook 2010 Nominal GDP per capita:

* USD 12.2 thousand - Uruguay
* USD 12.1 thousand - Chile
* USD 10.4 thousand - Brazil
* USD 09.2 thousand - Mexico
* USD 09.0 thousand - Argentina
* USD 07.9 thousand - Panama and Costa Rica [identical]
* USD 06.5 thousand - Colombia
* USD 05.3 thousand - Peru

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...inal)#GDP_.28Nominal.29_per_capita
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ve_units_by_gross_domestic_product

Quoting incitatus (Reply 81):
But the economy of Peru is about as big as that of the Rio de Janeiro metro area. Peru needs to boom for a long time.

Yes, but absolute size only is not the only criteria here. As mentioned before, LIM offers real advantages to NZ, while the largest market, GRU has capacity and no major regional Star Alliance partner:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 77):
GRU: No one would deny GRU is the most attractive market for traffic to/from Oceania [Australia plus NZ]. Sao Paulo is, of course, the largest and most important city on the continent, and the industrial, media, and financial center for the region. Nonetheless, GRU has capacity issues and is in the midst of a massive multi-year expansion program. Also, AV Brasil, O6, has yet to join Star Alliance and does not [yet] offer connecting flights throughout Chile, Argentina and Uruguay. For those interested, O6 is not owned by Avianca Holdings S.A. Rather, O6 is owned by Synergy Group, which itself is the majority shareholder in Avianca Holdings. AV and O6 maintain a series of service and license agreements between themselves, but remain 'separate' entities, for now. AV just completed their IPO on the NYSE last week, so a potential share swap could materialize sometime in the future.

LIM: As mentioned, AV Peru is growing quickly and offers excellent hub connections throughout the region. Peru is smaller and less commercially connected to Oceania than Brazil and Argentina. Nonetheless, LIM is attractive from an operational standpoint and is also in the midst of a massive infrastructure expansion program, which will add a second runway and an entirely new central terminal.


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 83, posted (5 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 7588 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 80):
This Mex NZ can't be right….891 People alone with NZ passports crossed the land border into Mex from Belize in 2012 according the Immigration figures I have for Belize..and that number is up in 2013 (so far).

Sometimes there are people who will do multiple entry as well... the Kiwis who travel to Mexico as their 'primary' destination may use it to base themselves and then visit Central America. And yes you're most probably right about Mexican authorities not gathering all this data but the data I was referencing comes from New Zealand authorities gained from travelers on egress from the country. I think the following answers that.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 79):
Agreed. I meant to point that out, that I couldn't confirm 100% as to how accurate that was, although I do recall that on the New Zealand customs departure card (from where this data is gleaned) that is says something along the lines of 'where is your primary destination' and that is why Peru does figure quite prominently on the outbound figures.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 84, posted (5 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7355 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 82):
As mentioned before, LIM offers real advantages to NZ, while the largest market, GRU has capacity and no major regional Star Alliance partner:

Which airline can fare better - LA AKL-SCL or NZ AKL-LIM?

All the market needs is one of the above and SYD-GRU. I believe the launch of SYD-GRU would make the market grow significantly.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7318 posts, RR: 24
Reply 85, posted (5 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7295 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 68):
Hence my original suggestion of AKL-PTY. Love it or hate it…CMs hub at PTY is very powerful.

Thats a horrible idea. The CM hubs power deals with connecting people from North and Central America to cities large and small in South America. There is very little traffic between the South Pacific and Central America and thats the only advantage a PTY-AKL flight would bring.

Quoting koruman (Reply 21):
I've written elsewhere that the existing AKL-PPT flight should be replaced by Air New Zealand with 789 (or 77E) services as follows via a Papeete scissor-hub:

SYD-PPT-GRU (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Avianca Brasil)
AKL-PPT-EZE (codeshared with Virgin Australia, Air Tahiti Nui and Aerolineas Argentinas)

This is also a bad idea. If you're going anywhere other than the final destination, it would be a nightmare.

If NZ is going to fly to South America (which I agree, they should), they need to gain a codeshare agreement with AV brands and fly AKL-LIM. Its not a geographically perfect arrangement since it would require some backtracking for places like SCL or EZE, but the hub at LIM will give NZ travelers a much wider variety of destinations than simply using PPT as a scissor hub, which at best would give most travelers a two stop option.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 86, posted (5 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6946 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 85):
The CM hubs power deals with connecting people from North and Central America to cities large and small in South America.

Then I guess KL, AF, IB, soon TP, and rumored LH, all have set up shop in PTY….just because PTY has huge O&D. If you look at the KL flight alone…the vast majority are connecting from CM cities.

CMs PTY hub can fill a hypothetical flight to AKL…easy…..the number of destinations available out of PTY is huge…..everywhere from POS to BOS, CUN to IQT…don't forget the US transit regs are huge incentive to avoid the USA.

And lets not forget Salo's rev guarantee check book…...



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 87, posted (5 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 6883 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 84):
All the market needs is one of the above and SYD-GRU. I believe the launch of SYD-GRU would make the market grow significantly.

No doubt these are the largest city pair markets for South America - Oceania, but there are the GRU capacity issues we have discussed, plus the range, plus the right carrier for the route.

We know NZ has an equity investment in Virgin Australia, with 23% of the equity following a recent investment, and rights to increase its holding to 26%. SQ and EY also own 20% each, while Branson himself has 10%. Perhaps Virgin could operate the flight from SYD and somehow get rights to GRU.

GRU is certainly the biggest market, but not the optimal facility handle the burgeoning traffic levels. I doubt a VCP flight would make sense either.

As we have mentioned, NZ to LIM may very well be the best option, or least worst...


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 88, posted (5 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6789 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 87):
No doubt these are the largest city pair markets for South America - Oceania, but there are the GRU capacity issues we have discussed, plus the range, plus the right carrier for the route.

With on-going construction at GRU plus plans for further construction, GRU will add a large number of departures in the next few years. First addition next year adds 22 gates.

The real hurdle is flying time with GRU-SYD. It will probably clock about 15-30 minutes more than QF's largest block time, DFW-BNE. But if QF wanted to launch SYD-GRU-AKL-SYD soon, they are ready.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 89, posted (5 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6656 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 88):
But if QF wanted to launch SYD-GRU-AKL-SYD soon, they are ready.

Ehhhh... sure, but we are determining carriers other than QF or LA and its affiliate, TAM/JJ can operate a South America - Oceania route. Surely, Star Alliance and its members can offer real competition to the existing operators.

NZ and AV and Virgin Australia must be able to come up with something between themselves, one would imagine.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 88):
With on-going construction at GRU plus plans for further construction, GRU will add a large number of departures in the next few years. First addition next year adds 22 gates.

But, what about slots? GRU has parallel runways, but its restricted to 45 hourly operations. How easily can a carrier obtain landing rights for GRU? The GRU expansion project has encountered endless delays and the new operators, Consortium Grupar, have only been managing the facility for 9 months.

These issues, plus the fact range and equipments are hurdles in their own right, may tip the balance towards a better facility, such as LIM. Perhaps EZE itself...


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 90, posted (5 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6642 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 84):
All the market needs is one of the above and SYD-GRU. I believe the launch of SYD-GRU would make the market grow significantly.

The path between these two points is directly over the Antarctic, an ETOPS black hole. What aircraft can realistically execute this route with an adequate payload other than the A340-500? And who has these other than JJ?

The image below shows the route, and two options, with ETOPS 180, 240 & 330 illustrated.




come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 91, posted (5 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6557 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 89):
But, what about slots? GRU has parallel runways, but its restricted to 45 hourly operations. How easily can a carrier obtain landing rights for GRU? The GRU expansion project has encountered endless delays and the new operators, Consortium Grupar, have only been managing the facility for 9 months.

The current restrictions at GRU come from the number of available gates and parking positions. During the day there are no parking positions available currently. When the new terminal opens in 2014 the main constraint at the airport will be the runways. It will still mean a significant increase in capacity. There are studies on making some adjustment to the current runway thresholds and landing aids to increase their throughput.

Even if the terminal opening date is delayed, construction is going at a fast pace. Delays are always possible but this project is going with the assumption that the new terminal will be used during the World Cup.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 90):
The path between these two points is directly over the Antarctic, an ETOPS black hole. What aircraft can realistically execute this route with an adequate payload other than the A340-500? And who has these other than JJ?

The same aircraft QF uses to do SYD-SCL and used to do SYD-EZE. I suggest you draw SYD-EZE on your globe.

SYD-GRU will have tailwinds and QF will have no problem flying it. GRU-AKL is as long as QF's bread and butter SYD-LAX.

.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7318 posts, RR: 24
Reply 92, posted (5 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6494 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 86):
Then I guess KL, AF, IB, soon TP, and rumored LH, all have set up shop in PTY….just because PTY has huge O&D. If you look at the KL flight alone…the vast majority are connecting from CM cities.

CMs PTY hub can fill a hypothetical flight to AKL…easy…..the number of destinations available out of PTY is huge…..everywhere from POS to BOS, CUN to IQT…don't forget the US transit regs are huge incentive to avoid the USA.

And lets not forget Salo's rev guarantee check book…...

Youre comparing apples and oranges. Europe-Latin America is not the same as Oceania-Latin America. PTY offeres geographic flow between Europe and Latin America. It does not from Oceania to the same.

PTY would not do anything for Australia/New Zealand-South America, only the same to Central America.

Furthermore, no way would they codeshare to cities in the US.

PTY has little O&D to Oceiana and doesnt really offer South America geographically from Oceiana. Its a bad idea.

Again, LIM is the way to go given both geography and and partner airlines.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3432 posts, RR: 26
Reply 93, posted (5 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6484 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 90):
A340-500? And who has these other than JJ?

IIRC, JJ does not have any A340-500's in their fleet anymore.


Regards,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineRAGAZZO777 From Uruguay, joined Jul 2010, 579 posts, RR: 1
Reply 94, posted (5 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6390 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
PTY would not do anything for Australia/New Zealand-South America, only the same to Central America.

Furthermore, no way would they codeshare to cities in the US.

PTY has little O&D to Oceiana and doesnt really offer South America geographically from Oceiana. Its a bad idea.

Agreed.




.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
LIM is the way to go given both geography and and partner airlines.

Same reason why Qantas dropped EZE in favour of SCL.



JESÚS, TE AMO !!
User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 95, posted (5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6332 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 87):
Perhaps Virgin could operate the flight from SYD and somehow get rights to GRU

There's no way that an Australian airline will be flying twins to GRU any time soon, as they are restricted to ETOPS180.

It will either be operated by NZ or by a quad.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 90):
What aircraft can realistically execute this route with an adequate payload other than the A340-500?

The route is 200mi shorter than DFW, so QF could probably eek out the route with the 74E if they were that way inclined. Even if they allow for headwinds affecting performance on certain days, like on the DFW route, GRU-AKL-SYD is still shorter than DFW-AKL-BNE



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 96, posted (5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6318 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 91):
SYD-GRU will have tailwinds and QF will have no problem flying it.

Actually at 13,387km's, it would be pushing the envelope of economics of the 744ER. While winds through the Roaring-40's are generally westerlies, the Antarctic they turn to a prominent but more gentle easterly flow. From what I've seen, flight paths vary significantly on this route, due to weather and time of year, more than any other.

And also, would the 744ER not be too much aircraft for developing a new route, SYD-GRU, while it is currently well tended already via its codeshare with LA/JJ from SCL.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 93):
IIRC, JJ does not have any A340-500's in their fleet anymore.

Thanks for the correction.



come visit the south pacific
User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 97, posted (5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6251 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 96):
would the 744ER not be too much aircraft for developing a new route, SYD-GRU, while it is currently well tended already via its codeshare with LA/JJ from SCL.

Its size didn't stop QF piling into EZE and SCL in direct competition to LA.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 98, posted (5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6220 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 97):
direct competition

Does LA not codeshare on the QF flights to SCL? And the EZE flights were hardly direct competition to LA, rather to AR don't you think, as LA's Argentinian subsidiary was not able to fly the EZE-SYD route (lack of aircraft being one issue). QF's flights to SCL (and their former ones to EZE) serve not just those destination cities but others further into South America including GRU (and GIG, LIM, MVD etc). Flights to GRU will serve Brazil only and might a 744ER be too much for that given their existing services to SCL IMHO.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 99, posted (5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5997 times:

Aside from the sheer length, there just isnt enough space in the -ER Fleet to think about a GRU route.

QF will expand in South America via SCL and interline/codeshares, this is far lower risk than other flights, and also, SCL is actually pretty decently placed as a hub from Australia. most places have very little sidestepping and its only southern Chile and Patagonia that will have backtracking.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 100, posted (5 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5990 times:
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With AR ending its route to SYD, LAN is evaluating adding additional frequencies on the SCL-AKL-SYD route if there is an increase in demand for flights between South America and Australia:
http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/...?dt=2013-11-12&PaginaId=5&BodyId=2


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 101, posted (5 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5844 times:

Quoting RAGAZZO777 (Reply 94):
Agreed.

We will see over the next 18 months….

Last time someone thought my predictions or suggestions sounded crazy they were had to eat some humble pie.

Next Batter up…. 



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7318 posts, RR: 24
Reply 102, posted (5 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5638 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 101):

I seem to recall you've eaten quite a few slices of humble pie yourself.

If someone in Panama wants to flash enough money, then it might happen. There is zero reason why NZ would show up on their own with no incentive.

[Edited 2013-11-13 06:13:04]


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 103, posted (5 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5448 times:

Thought these were interesting factoids and comments in the AR press release about ceasing operations to Oceania...

Quote:
-the existence of alternatives to maintain connectivity with Oceania through other international carriers that are still flying with a more appropriate product/connectivity for the route.

What alternatives would these be? Skyteam partners: China Eastern fly to MEL and SYD from PVG; China Southern to CNS, BNE, SYD, MEL & AKL from AND OLD: Guangzhou - Baiyun (CAN / ZGGG) (closed), China">CAN; China Airlines to BNE, AKL & SYD from TPE. But none of them fly on to South America. Perhaps they're referring to the SYD-LAX-ATL-EZE you can do with DL, hardly attractive.

Quote:
-It is not a route that brings tourists to our country, 51% of the passengers are connecting, or traveling beyond Australia and Argentina. 45% Of the total are passengers in connection with other South American countries.

This suggests it would be a good idea for NZ with its onward connections to Australia and Asia, and a leg on to GRU from BUE.

Press release titled...
AEROLINEAS ARGENTINAS WILL EXPAND ITS NETWORK AND INCREASE FLIGHTS DURING 2014

at... http://www.aerolineas.com.ar/en-AR/P...k-and-increase-flights-during-2014

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 102):
If someone in Panama wants to flash enough money, then it might happen. There is zero reason why NZ would show up on their own with no incentive.

   Absolutely! NZ have no interest in flying to PTY. What little traffic there is, to and from Central America, is handled very well via NZ's twice daily flights to LAX and various connections from there.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 90 posts, RR: 0
Reply 104, posted (5 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5431 times:

I'd concur with a proposed Air New Zealand AKL-EZE-GRU routing.

Though LIM as a Star hub may seem attractive at first glance, the Southern Cone is where the traffic is.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 5881 posts, RR: 2
Reply 105, posted (5 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 5422 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 103):
Absolutely! NZ have no interest in flying to PTY. What little traffic there is, to and from Central America, is handled very well via NZ's twice daily flights to LAX and various connections from there.

12 months ago TP had zero interest in flying to PTY….yet, it appears flights will commence.

One thing I have learnt with the Panamanians is that they think big, and if they want it to happen, it will.

What you folks fail to realise PTY is more that just Central American traffic….its traffic to Caribbean, tourism juggernauts like CUN, SDQ, NAS, HAV etc, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia. Even cities like TPA in the CM network would be candidates to fill a NZ flight at PTY.

I know of NZ citizens that travel AKL-SCL-LIM-PTY-SAP-RTB on a mix of LA, AV & CM..yes it a few….but a few from each CM city served fills a flight.

Anyway....onward…..



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineleonardoq From Australia, joined Nov 2011, 45 posts, RR: 0
Reply 106, posted (5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5258 times:

If NZ was planning on flying to South America, I dont even know why this PTY option is being discussed here....

User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 107, posted (5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 5159 times:

Quoting leonardoq (Reply 106):

If NZ was planning on flying to South America, I dont even know why this PTY option is being discussed here....

   Yes, there is a distinct lack of understanding of the market, perhaps even geography, by some members.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlinePA515 From New Zealand, joined Nov 2007, 834 posts, RR: 0
Reply 108, posted (5 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 4927 times:

Had a rethink and the best strategy for NZ may be to concede nothing to LA/QF and do AKL-SCL-GRU.

AC has a Mo We Fr Sa Su 77W SCL-EZE 1335/1530, EZE-SCL 1755/2005 extension of YYZ-SCL / SCL-YYZ that would connect with an NZ AKL-SCL / SCL-AKL. AR could get involved with SCL-AEP and connections to MVD, POA etc.

TK has a GRU-EZE-GRU Daily 343 but the EZE-GRU time would not connect well with an AKL-EZE. The big question is slots at GRU for NZ. TK has 0345/0515 at GRU on the return to IST, probably not their first choice. QR has similar times.

Possible NZ schedule:
AKL-SCL 1630/1135, SCL-GRU 1305/1740, GRU-SCL 1955/2255, SCL-AKL 0030/0510.

PA515


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 109, posted (5 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 4797 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 105):
One thing I have learnt with the Panamanians is that they think big, and if they want it to happen, it will.

What you folks fail to realise PTY is more that just Central American traffic….its traffic to Caribbean, tourism juggernauts like CUN, SDQ, NAS, HAV etc, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia. Even cities like TPA in the CM network would be candidates to fill a NZ flight at PTY.

Yellowtail: no one doubts the Panamanians have large aspirations, indeed. PTY is a very important hub and Panama is fashioning itself as a kind of Hong Kong/Singapore for Latin America. I am sure the future for PTY is very bright.

However, all this means little when compared to the size and scope of the largest and most diverse market in Latin America, Brazil. Adding the other southern cone markets, EZE, SCL and MVD, etc, only makes the comparison more compelling.

If NZ wants a route to Latin America, GRU is surely on their top-list. However, as we have extensively documented, the facility has its problems and NZ may prefer a different point of entry. LIM may or may not work. EZE is interesting, with a GRU tag, as several have proposed:

Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 104):
I'd concur with a proposed Air New Zealand AKL-EZE-GRU routing.
Quoting PA515 (Reply 108):
AC has a Mo We Fr Sa Su 77W SCL-EZE 1335/1530, EZE-SCL 1755/2005 extension of YYZ-SCL / SCL-YYZ that would connect with an NZ AKL-SCL / SCL-AKL. AR could get involved with SCL-AEP and connections to MVD, POA etc.

TK has a GRU-EZE-GRU Daily 343 but the EZE-GRU time would not connect well with an AKL-EZE. The big question is slots at GRU for NZ. TK has 0345/0515 at GRU on the return to IST, probably not their first choice. QR has similar times.


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 110, posted (5 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4661 times:

Quoting PA515 (Reply 108):

Interesting concept, though would a codeshare be possible on a foreign carrier (ie AC to EZE and TK to GRU) like that?

Also, would this encourage QF to start their own tag flght to GRU? One issue I see with the QF flight is that it is a day flight and arrives back into SYD just that bit late to pick up any of the Asia departures. I think QF could really open a door to southern South America to Asia traffic if they retimed it. If they did a tag SCL-GRU-SCL, they would create a night time departure for themselves which would get in in the early morning to SYD, which would connect perfectly with the first bank of Asia departures to SIN-HKG-BKK and help support those flights that bit more. What issues could there be with that sort of routing?

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 107):

They would not be the first people I have come across who think SCL is only a couple of hours from the US!!! For the record, SCL-DFW on AA clocks in at 9hrs55min and SCL-PTY is 6hrs45min on Copa...


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 111, posted (5 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4558 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 110):
Also, would this encourage QF to start their own tag flght to GRU?

Because of their oneworld link-up with LA and JJ at the SCL hub, QF don't need to use their own metal for this. It would be an advantage for NZ at EZE as they have no alliance partner based there - and Brasil is New Zealand's largest inbound and outbound South American market (followed by Argentina).



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 112, posted (5 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4566 times:

Quoting PA515 (Reply 108):
Had a rethink and the best strategy for NZ may be to concede nothing to LA/QF and do AKL-SCL-GRU

I don't agree.

I think a small twin would allow them to concentrate on the most lucrative point-to-point markets, probably in order:

SYD-GRU
SYD-EZE
AKL-GRU
AKL-EZE

And again, that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy. And convenience: yes, there is a midway stop. But both eastbound and westbound there are sectors well-timed to allow sleep.

I don't think they need to be flying to Santiago when LAN already own the route, the connections and the feed. It's pointless.

PPT scissor hub


User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8488 posts, RR: 14
Reply 113, posted (5 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4499 times:
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Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
I think a small twin would allow them to concentrate on the most lucrative point-to-point markets, probably in order:

SYD-GRU
SYD-EZE
AKL-GRU
AKL-EZE

And again, that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy. And convenience: yes, there is a midway stop. But both eastbound and westbound there are sectors well-timed to allow sleep.

Two questions regarding this:

1/ Does NZ currently have the traffic rights to do this ?
2/ if not, can they persuade Australia, France, Argentina and Brazil to all agree to give them the rights to do this?



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 114, posted (5 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4479 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 110):
One issue I see with the QF flight is that it is a day flight and arrives back into SYD just that bit late to pick up any of the Asia departures

  

I think they're shooting themselves in the foot there. By timing the flights better for connections to HKG, SIN, PVG and BKK then they could hopefully increase traffic on the route to point that they can fly it 5/6x daily, which would have a further stimulatory affect on the local market.

QF via SYD would have an advantage over the current LA/CX partnership via AKL as it would serve cities such as SIN and PVG in addition to just HKG.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 111):
Because of their oneworld link-up with LA and JJ at the SCL hub, QF don't need to use their own metal for this

QF and LA don't have a JV relationship, so if QF would make money on flying to GRU on their own metal then they will do, the same as they fly to JFK in direct competition to JV partner AA. At the end of the day, all corporations are inherently selfish, and will do whatever makes the most money for their company. I'm not saying it will happen, but a codeshare with LA wouldn't stop QF from doing it if they decided that they want to fly to GRU.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24613 posts, RR: 86
Reply 115, posted (5 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4478 times:
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Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 113):
1/ Does NZ currently have the traffic rights to do this ?
2/ if not, can they persuade Australia, France, Argentina and Brazil to all agree to give them the rights to do this?

I'm an internationalist, a one-worlder (the international concept not the airline alliance) and I believe that Air NZ should have the freedom to make any commercial decision it thinks viable.

But as a New Zealand tax-payer, I would be very unhappy to see the energy and investment expended in PPT in preference to RAR if the only purpose of it is to make access to some South American ports easier - a pit stop.

Nothing against the French, love 'em, Paris is almost my favourite city in the world, but the Cook Islands are part of the Realm of New Zealand, and I would prefer investment and development (and potential income) be made there rather than in French territory.

mariner

[Edited 2013-11-14 15:46:38]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 116, posted (5 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4410 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 113):
Two questions regarding this:

1/ Does NZ currently have the traffic rights to do this ?

Of course they do from Australia. Under the CER, CAM etc NZL airlines can fly from Australia to anywhere they like, as far as Australia is concerned. [Australian airlines like wise from NZL]

From PPT I would suspect so as they certainly have 5th freedom rights, although they may be limited in destinations, I don't know.

As far as the S American countries does NZL have bi-laterals with those countries?

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8488 posts, RR: 14
Reply 117, posted (5 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4281 times:
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Quoting gemuser (Reply 116):
Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 113):
Two questions regarding this:

1/ Does NZ currently have the traffic rights to do this ?

Of course they do from Australia. Under the CER, CAM etc NZL airlines can fly from Australia to anywhere they like, as far as Australia is concerned. [Australian airlines like wise from NZL]

Thanks for that, I wasn't sure whether NZ's rights from Australia were restricted by the agreement to specific countries only.



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlinesunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4601 posts, RR: 5
Reply 118, posted (5 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4272 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):
Whats the range? I would think the 789 could easily do it even if the 772 couldnt. Its under 7500 miles

I have seen two flight plans GRU-AKL for a 744. For both the airways distance is 6556nm. Time on one was 15hr 08m and the other further south via Punta Arenas was 14hr 25m. The payload was pretty unattractive as I remember

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 19):
77E [with GE engines only initially, with RR and PW to follow] would be granted ETOPS 330 designation.

I believe the PW/RR to follow has not happened yet.


User currently offlinePA515 From New Zealand, joined Nov 2007, 834 posts, RR: 0
Reply 119, posted (5 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4094 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 110):
Interesting concept, though would a codeshare be possible on a foreign carrier (ie AC to EZE and TK to GRU) like that?

Yes. QF and BA had this arrangement at EZE. The SYD-EZE and LHR-GRU-EZE arrived about the same time and returned about the same time. However, when BA decided to replace the LHR-GRU-EZE with LHR-GRU and LHR-EZE, QF switched to SYD-SCL. That's the problem with this type of connection, it's vulnerable and dosen't work out if there's a delay. And, if the carrier you are interlining with is from the Northern Hemisphere, their Northern Summer schedule may not align. AC's SCL-EZE from Apr 2014 is three hours earlier and a 763.

Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
And again, that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy. And convenience: yes, there is a midway stop. But both eastbound and westbound there are sectors well-timed to allow sleep.

About two years ago Rob Fyfe said NZ had looked at AKL-PPT-GRU and rejected it. Can't remember if he gave any details about why it wouldn't work, but he said it was not going to happen. I believe extra time and distance would make it uncompetitive.

Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
I don't think they need to be flying to Santiago when LAN already own the route, the connections and the feed. It's pointless.

Not all connections. Argentina, Uruguay, Southern Brasil, Paraguay and Bolivia would be accessible on AR with a transit at AEP. AR only serves SCL from AEP. If NZ goes via EZE, then pax would have to pass through Immigration and Customs at EZE and bus to AEP to get connecting flights. NZ would provide it's own connection to GRU, and they wouldn't need one for Chile. However, AKL-SCL-GRU is 40 minutes longer than AKL-EZE-GRU.

AKL-EZE would work if AR were able to provide connections from EZE rather than AEP. They do this in a limited way with a morning EZE-MVD-AEP and evening AEP-MVD-EZE, probably for AR's US and Europe flights.

Can't help thinking there must be some contact between AR and NZ about the best way forward, so they both get something instead of nothing. An NZ service could commence from October 2014, when the first 789 replace's the 77E on AKL-PER. One 77E for a three weekly service, or the 744 does it for two years until the 789 obtains EDTO 330.

PA515


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 120, posted (5 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 4010 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting gemuser (Reply 116):
As far as the S American countries does NZL have bi-laterals with those countries?

Brazil have an agreement with NZL, it allows 3 weekly service plus 4 weekly service if they code-share with an airline from Brazil, designated to provide the service to NZL also.
But i doubt it will happen.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlinekoruman From Australia, joined Feb 2006, 3528 posts, RR: 5
Reply 121, posted (5 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3985 times:

Mariner,
Firstly,RAR's runway is too short for flights to eastern South America.

Secondly, LAN's Santiago-Papeete flight has always relied on Brazilian tourists to Bora Bora, the market already exists in some form.

But I doubt that even affluent Brazilians have heard of Rarotonga.


User currently offlinePA515 From New Zealand, joined Nov 2007, 834 posts, RR: 0
Reply 122, posted (5 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3980 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 120):
Brazil have an agreement with NZL, it allows 3 weekly service plus 4 weekly service if they code-share with an airline from Brazil, designated to provide the service to NZL also.

A new Brazil / New Zealand Air Services Agreement was signed on 11th March 2013.

Quote:

"The new agreement replaces one signed in 1996. It removes restrictions on the routes that can be operated and the number of flights that can be provided between and beyond the two countries."

PA515


User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 123, posted (5 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3959 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 111):

I think the question to answer is what traffic could QF generate AUS-GRU and vice versa? Without sufficient numbers, the tag on wont make sense. Though what about this for a slightly out there idea. 2 tag ons. Some days it goes to GRU, other days it might go elsewhere (EZE, GIG for example)? Allows for multiple sales destinations but wont clog the SYD-SCL sector with transit pax only). This mind you would only happen for as long as LAN doesnt want to have codeshare discussions and whilstever they are the majority carrier in South America and not really under too much pressure from competition, I dont see happening soon.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 124, posted (5 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3918 times:

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 118):
I believe the PW/RR to follow has not happened yet.

Really?! Boeing made this announcement two years ago, one would think PW and RR would have worked hard to make it happen.

What is stopping NZ from operating its 77E on ETOPS 330 to South America?

Quoting PA515 (Reply 119):
AKL-EZE would work if AR were able to provide connections from EZE rather than AEP. They do this in a limited way with a morning EZE-MVD-AEP and evening AEP-MVD-EZE, probably for AR's US and Europe flights.

Can't help thinking there must be some contact between AR and NZ about the best way forward, so they both get something instead of nothing. An NZ service could commence from October 2014, when the first 789 replace's the 77E on AKL-PER. One 77E for a three weekly service, or the 744 does it for two years until the 789 obtains EDTO 330.

EZE is, for now, a Sky Team hub with AR, although NZ could team up with them with the right agreement. Regional connections from EZE are weak, as the facility primarily serves O&D, with regional traffic out of AEP, as you point out.

AV does have a presence at EZE, as does H2, with flights to SCL, LIM and BOG. However, Brazil is the major market and O6 has yet to build up its regional presence to Argentina and MVD.

Your timeline makes sense: start the route next year when the 77E becomes available, or even a 744 until the 789 receives authorization to operate.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24613 posts, RR: 86
Reply 125, posted (5 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3850 times:
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Quoting koruman (Reply 121):
But I doubt that even affluent Brazilians have heard of Rarotonga.

I'm sure they haven't. That can change. I remember when no one had heard of Phuket.

As to the runway, an airline I follow is operating with A319's at an airport with a 6000 ft runway - like SNA, several hundred feet below minimum runway length for the A320.

And lo - they used an A320 there a couple of days ago and plan to use it again, with FAA approval.

mariner

[Edited 2013-11-15 10:00:44]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlinesunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4601 posts, RR: 5
Reply 126, posted (5 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3717 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 124):
What is stopping NZ from operating its 77E on ETOPS 330 to South America?

The NZL regulator requires that an aircraft must be approved for > 180-min by the regulator in the country of manufacture. Thus the need for FAA approval.


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3038 posts, RR: 9
Reply 127, posted (5 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3552 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
And again, that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy. And convenience: yes, there is a midway stop. But both eastbound and westbound there are sectors well-timed to allow sleep.

With such a good idea, it's funny that TN haven't thought to operate it.



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlinesunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4601 posts, RR: 5
Reply 128, posted (5 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3478 times:

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 127):
With such a good idea, it's funny that TN haven't thought to operate it.

You would wonder wouldn't you. Perhaps the ~ 48 hr time demand per cycle (AKL/SYD-PPT-GRU/EZE-PPT-AKL/SYD) on the aircraft might be an inhibiter. Koruman's solution is very practical in my view . PPT-LAX-PPT connections will also work rather well


User currently offlineFlyboyOz From Australia, joined Nov 2000, 1969 posts, RR: 26
Reply 129, posted (5 months 23 hours ago) and read 3367 times:

Strange.... But Qantas always fly between SYD and JNB via part of south pole. Similar flightpath between SYD to EZE.


The Spirit of AustraliAN - Longreach
User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 130, posted (5 months 15 hours ago) and read 3128 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 114):
I think they're shooting themselves in the foot there. By timing the flights better for connections to HKG, SIN, PVG and BKK then they could hopefully increase traffic on the route to point that they can fly it 5/6x daily, which would have a further stimulatory affect on the local market.

Could QF also sell their codeshare flights on OZ, VN and MU?


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 131, posted (5 months 14 hours ago) and read 3093 times:

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 126):
The NZL regulator requires that an aircraft must be approved for > 180-min by the regulator in the country of manufacture. Thus the need for FAA approval.

But the FAA has granted ETOPS 330 to the 77E so what is the holdback?


User currently offlinesunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4601 posts, RR: 5
Reply 132, posted (5 months 13 hours ago) and read 3020 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 131):
But the FAA has granted ETOPS 330 to the 77E so what is the holdback?

Only to the GE/777-200ER engine/airframe combination so far as I know. I actually got someone in Boeings PR group to reply to an email about 3-months ago confirming that the RR/PW version was still awaiting FAA approval.


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 133, posted (5 months 12 hours ago) and read 2966 times:

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 130):
Could QF also sell their codeshare flights on OZ, VN and MU?

It would depend on individual contracts and the relevant bilaterals, but I don't see why it isn't theoretically possible. Good point!



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2427 posts, RR: 1
Reply 134, posted (5 months 10 hours ago) and read 2907 times:

Quoting MilesDependent (Reply 63):
Transiting LAX is usually a nightmare. I have been to PTY a few times (most recently 2011), and found it terrible as well. So over-crowded I couldn't wait to get out of there. But, worst of all, Copa's business class is not much better than premium Y on QF 747. Not even thinking about how much more time this route would take, risk of missed connection and delays etc. As a business traveller I would never go this way.

Transiting LAX is a nightmare.
PTY is trying to improve, too bad CM grows faster than the government is improving PTY.
But unlike 2011, right-now CM is flying PTY-LAX thrice-daily and if someone can't get on the CM LAX-PTY, CM twice daily LAS-PTY works well as a back-up.

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
Having read all the bright ideas on this thread I like yours best - through RAR, with feed from SYD. I don't really care where they fly on to - LIM, SCL or (my favourite) MEX, or all three of 'em.

Seems RAR location has been quite underrated by NZ, it could work well as a New Zealand-er stop en route between AKL and YVR/LIM maybe even PTY.

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
How are the beaches in Peru?

If you like frigid waters yes.. warm water only found seasonally in far northern Peru.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 86):
CMs PTY hub can fill a hypothetical flight to AKL…easy…..the number of destinations available out of PTY is huge…..everywhere from POS to BOS, CUN to IQT…don't forget the US transit regs are huge incentive to avoid the USA.

PTY still has a draw for a southern transpacific flight. Australians and New Zealanders love CUN, MBJ. HAV.. Getting to those places via LAX or SCL may not be so attractive.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Furthermore, no way would they codeshare to cities in the US.

CM is an Star Alliance airline, why no possible CM-NZ or UA-NZ code-share for flights between PTY and U.S.A.?

Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
And again, that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy. And convenience: yes, there is a midway stop. But both eastbound and westbound there are sectors well-timed to allow sleep.

NZ belongs to NZ, so I agree with:

Quoting mariner (Reply 115):
Nothing against the French, love 'em, Paris is almost my favourite city in the world, but the Cook Islands are part of the Realm of New Zealand, and I would prefer investment and development (and potential income) be made there rather than in French territory.
Quoting koruman (Reply 121):
But I doubt that even affluent Brazilians have heard of Rarotonga.

Don't underestimate the affluent Brazilians knowledge of - or will to travel to - off-the-beaten-track places.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 135, posted (5 months 8 hours ago) and read 2825 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 131):
But the FAA has granted ETOPS 330 to the 77E so what is the holdback?

So what? As we are talking about a New Zealand airline, it's not FAA approval that is required, but NZL's CAA's approval! [Now admittedly you require FAA approval, as airworthiness authority of the country of manufacture, to get CAA approval for B77E, but its not enough by itself. In fact CAA & Australia's CASA and others countries have their own requirements on top of the FAAs in many area of aircraft certification & operation.]

In this case the CAA has minimum experience in ETOPS operation requirement for the operator, with the proposed aircraft type, at each ETOPS level. So once the B77E gets FAA approval for 330 min, Air NZ will have to show it has experience at 180 min [which it can], then it has to have a certain amount of experience at 240 min before it can get 330 min. That a rather simplistic summary.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineQFVHOQA From Australia, joined Mar 2012, 373 posts, RR: 0
Reply 136, posted (5 months 7 hours ago) and read 2786 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 114):
QF via SYD would have an advantage over the current LA/CX partnership via AKL as it would serve cities such as SIN and PVG in addition to just HKG.
Quoting qf2220 (Reply 130):
Could QF also sell their codeshare flights on OZ, VN and MU?

If the main market in South America is GRU, then QF loses its advantage as distances are much further via SYD than via Europe or Middle East. QF would only be more convenient for Asia to Western South America, but I understand this market is smaller than Asia-Brazil.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1088 posts, RR: 6
Reply 137, posted (5 months 4 hours ago) and read 2681 times:

Quoting gemuser (Reply 135):
So what? As we are talking about a New Zealand airline, it's not FAA approval that is required, but NZL's CAA's approval! [Now admittedly you require FAA approval, as airworthiness authority of the country of manufacture, to get CAA approval for B77E, but its not enough by itself. In fact CAA & Australia's CASA and others countries have their own requirements on top of the FAAs in many area of aircraft certification & operation.]

An assumption on my end. New Zealand is a sovereign nation [Australia too], of course, and has the ability and the right to implement civil aviation requirements as it sees fit. However, I perceive the FAA here in the United States as the "gold standard" of aeronautical regulators. Again, this is my perception and I do not work in the aviation sector. I trust whatever the FAA determines to follow a highly rigorous evaluation and vetting process. I would assume all regulators would follow norms the FAA has determined as appropriate and would implement those rules as well.

Regulators are neither infallible nor perfect, and are obviously capable of human error. If, contrary to my assumption, New Zealand's CAA has not followed the FAA and implemented ETOS 330 for the 77E [with GE only apprently], it must have its reasons...


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 138, posted (4 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2370 times:

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 136):
If the main market in South America is GRU, then QF loses its advantage as distances are much further via SYD than via Europe or Middle East. QF would only be more convenient for Asia to Western South America, but I understand this market is smaller than Asia-Brazil.

I wasn't really suggesting that QF should be a full blown hub between Asia and South America, but more that they should optimise their flights to take advantage of any traffic that is on the table. From what I understand, the Chile-Asia market is larger than you would think, although Brazil is bigger by quite a margin. I definitely agree that any Brazil-Asia traffic should go through DXB, and maybe Europe if it is of a low yielding, price sensitive nature.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineQFVHOQA From Australia, joined Mar 2012, 373 posts, RR: 0
Reply 139, posted (4 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2311 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 138):
I wasn't really suggesting that QF should be a full blown hub between Asia and South America, but more that they should optimise their flights to take advantage of any traffic that is on the table. From what I understand, the Chile-Asia market is larger than you would think, although Brazil is bigger by quite a margin. I definitely agree that any Brazil-Asia traffic should go through DXB, and maybe Europe if it is of a low yielding, price sensitive nature.

When you put it that way, taking the low hanging fruit by allowing connections without a long layover would make sense. But what if it then affected the SYD-SCL O&D pax? Surely those would be higher yielding that connecting pax (especially those connecting from other carriers). The timings for SCL-SYD wouldn't work well for a ~7am arrival at SYD as it would mean leaving SCL at ~3am. A civilised departure time from SCL like 11pm wouldn't be possible with the SYD curfew.

[Edited 2013-11-17 17:09:52]

User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4675 posts, RR: 4
Reply 140, posted (4 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2127 times:

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 139):
The timings for SCL-SYD wouldn't work well for a ~7am arrival at SYD as it would mean leaving SCL at ~3am. A civilised departure time from SCL like 11pm wouldn't be possible with the SYD curfew.

  

Good point, I hadn't even considered that!



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineqf2220 From Australia, joined Aug 2013, 258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 141, posted (4 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1973 times:

Quoting QFVHOQA (Reply 139):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 140):

Fly slowly!


User currently offlineAzure From France, joined Dec 2012, 598 posts, RR: 16
Reply 142, posted (4 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1806 times:

Quoting koruman (Reply 112):
that opens my Papeete scissor hub for reasons of ETOPS and fuel economy

Interesting concept. I also developed the idea that PPT could become a powerful hub in this thread : Air Tahiti Nui Seeks ATI-JV With Air France, Delta (by LAXintl Apr 15 2013 in Civil Aviation) (my reply #27.

PPT is perfectly located to seize the growing South America to Asia market, but the same can be said for the South America to Australia market. The potential is there.

Papeete, the next Dubai ?  

I used the Great Circle Mapper to show that many routings from South America to Asia were often shorter through PPT than LAX or other hubs.









Of course only a well managed airlines could do the job, and frankly I have no hope for TN here, at least at the present time. I do not see AF either, it has no intention to develop in the South Pacific.
NZ may be, but it would be subject to authorities approval...



I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things - A. de Saint Exupery