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DL/MEM Cut Details, Including BOS And DCA  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2871 posts, RR: 30
Posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 11949 times:

The most recent DL MEM Cuts thread won't allow posts, but it looks like the are finally loaded now. The initial cuts loaded included CMH, BNA, MKE and SDF drops but they didn't get down to the 44/day states until recently.

Here are some notable additional cuts beyond those already noted:

MEM-BOS ends
MEM-LGA decreases to 1x
MEM-CVG decreases from 3x to 1x
MEM-DCA either decreases to 1x (per website) or ends complete (per online timetable)

These cuts all take place after the holidays. With these additional changes MEM gets down to the originally-stated 44/day, or actually 43/day if the MEM-DCA cut loaded to the online timetable is accurate and ahead of the website. Here's a breakdown, comparing this Monday to the first Monday after the new schedule takes effect in January:

11 --> 8 ….. atl
1 --> 1 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 2 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 1 ….. den
2 --> 2 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 2 ….. iah
2 --> 2 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 1 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 3 ….. ord
2 --> 1 ….. phl
2 --> 2 ….. pit
1 --> 1 ….. rdu
1 --> 1 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 43.... total (44 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

Breakdown for November
22 mainline
17 large RJ
26 50-seat RJ

Breakdown for January post-holiday
16 mainline
7 large RJ
19 50-seat RJ

Sad to say for Memphis but this is worse than what I think people expected. The proportion of 50-seat RJ's is higher in the January schedule (44% of all departures) than November (40% of all departures). Memphis loses Boston, sees LaGuardia drop to 1x CR9, sees Philadelphia drop to 1x CR9, and sees DCA drop to 1x CR9 or end entirely. When it comes to the non-hub flying left, most everything is 50-seat RJs. O'Hare has 1x CR9 and 2x CRJ, but all of the other regional markets are 1 or 2 50-seat RJ's. Those seem to be the most vulnerable. That Memphis would have a *higher* portion of 50-seat RJ's is not exactly a sign cuts are over.

67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1607 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 11807 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

11 --> 8 ….. atl ..... 8
3 --> 1 ….. cvg ..... 3
6 --> 3 ….. dtw ..... 5
3 --> 1 ….. lga ..... 4 + 1 JFK
3 --> 3 ….. msp ..... 5
3 --> 2 ….. slc ..... 2

These are the ones most surprising to me; even with service reductions, I didn't think we'd so quickly see the day where an airport like STL would have more service to DL hubs than MEM does (for sake of comparison, I've inserted STL frequencies in bold above). I understand that it does still have non-stop service to some key markets, directing some would-be connecting traffic away from the hubs unlike what occurs at other spokes, but it's a bit unexpected to see spokes pulled down so aggressively while also reducing the connecting opportunities at the hubs.


User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 11803 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Sad to say for Memphis but this is worse than what I think people expected.

CVG is next on the chopping block I have a feeling...



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2871 posts, RR: 30
Reply 3, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11669 times:

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 2):
CVG is next on the chopping block I have a feeling...

FYI I checked what's currently on the desktop schedule to see if any new cuts showed up for CVG and nothing really sticks out. But CVG is still heavily 50-seat RJ's...more than 60% of total. So far everything seems status quo.


User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7155 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11543 times:

when I was spotting at MEM it was pretty dead really. Sad, but thank goodness for FX.

User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2272 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 11076 times:

such a shame   I'm sure in a years time a lot of those spoke cities will be gone and all that will be left will be hubs, LAX and maybe MCO. I'm surprised they cut it down pretty quick from the originally de-hubbing in Sept. Perhaps maybe if they would have banked some of those flights a little better to allow for connections it might have worked.

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7197 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 10983 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 3):
FYI I checked what's currently on the desktop schedule to see if any new cuts showed up for CVG and nothing really sticks out. But CVG is still heavily 50-seat RJ's...more than 60% of total. So far everything seems status quo.

Some of the gossip going around is most of that will eventually switch over to larger RJs, which will indeed mean a lower frequency of service, but from what I can understand, we won't suffer so much of a catastrophic blow as MEM has....for the time being.

If the economy remains sluggish, if fuel prices skyrocket out of control, I'll give CVG another 3 or 4 years as a hub....but if the US economy improves, if CVG indeed becomes a revitalized town (as it is slowly becoming), if the new service by other airlines drives competition by DL, we may see CVG make a resurgence. But in all realities, right now no one knows the future. We can only go off of how well they're doing right now--and they seem pretty good.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlinestrfyr51 From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 1074 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10862 times:
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does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??

User currently offlinemidway7 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 10505 times:

Just curious - why is ORD staying at 3 a day? Not to say it is bad, but it stands out when most other destinations are being reduced much further or eliminated.

User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3379 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 10010 times:

Shocked LGA is 1x a day. They fly to tiny towns more than that from LGA. Would think 2 or 3 a day would remain.

User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 9765 times:

It's surprising to see that service to other airline hub markets (DFW and CLT) are holding steady. You'd think those routes would be the first to go...especially CLT.

Also, I would expect markets like DEN, PIT, SAT, IND to be entirely cut at some point in the near future.


User currently offlineJFKL1011 From United States of America, joined Oct 2013, 57 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 9617 times:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 7):
does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??

I dont follow....SDF, which is the 5X worldport is down to zero. Other than that, the only major 5X ops are DFW, PHL, ONT, RFD and CAE.

Outside of MEM, FX has major ops at EWR, IND, OAK, MIA and AFW.

And DHL contracts all of its US ops to GB and PO.

So where is this "maintaining" that you speak of???



So many places to fly and increasingly so few interesting aircraft to get there on.
User currently offlineredtailmsp From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 206 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 9485 times:

What I find most shocking is that MEM-ATL is being reduced from 11 to 8 daily. This is at the same time as Air Tran cancel their 4 daily flights in this market, leaving DL as a monopoly in this market. I travel this route frequently on DL, and see a healthy local market, with many business travelers. DL would scoop up whatever local traffic Air Tran has, as well as a fair proportion of their connecting traffic - yet here we see basically a reduction of 450 seats in each direction on a daily basis. I would have expected at the very least a maintaining of the frequency, not a significant reduction. At the same time, I see a reduction is flights to other DL hubs - DTW / SLC /LGA. To me, this all demonstrates how weak the MEM market really is, with the apparant result that DL appears disinterested in maintaining market share there.

User currently offlinethreeifbyair From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 672 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9195 times:

Wonder where the DCA slots will end up. I'm not sure we need more DCA-ATL flights but with the slot swap DL has axed most of the P2P flying at DCA, so I suspect it will be a hub route.

US is probably pretty happy to be running DL off of a DCA route.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7036 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9125 times:

Quoting redtailmsp (Reply 12):
What I find most shocking is that MEM-ATL is being reduced from 11 to 8 daily. This is at the same time as Air Tran cancel their 4 daily flights in this market, leaving DL as a monopoly in this market.

Not shocking at all. DL always reduces service when competition goes away. UA/AA do the same thing.


User currently offlineEXMEMWIDGET From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8920 times:

It is sad to see my old hometown's airline service shrinking down this much. In a few years as far as DL is concerned, MEM will probably only have service to it's hubs and maybe a token amount of service to places like LAX, LGA, DCA and MCO.

User currently offlineCosmicCruiser From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2255 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8899 times:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 7):
does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??



??? It doesn't get much bigger than FDX MEM.

Sadly for MEM they just finished a huge new parking garage.


User currently offlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8625 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
11 --> 8 ….. atl
1 --> 1 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 2 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 1 ….. den
2 --> 2 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 2 ….. iah
2 --> 2 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 1 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 3 ….. ord
2 --> 1 ….. phl
2 --> 2 ….. pit
1 --> 1 ….. rdu
1 --> 1 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 43.... total (44 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

So then, my predictions for what will happen in the next 6 months to year. Without connections, some of these routes cannot survive.
1 --> 0 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 0 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 0 ….. den
2 --> 0 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 0 ….. iah
2 --> 0 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 0 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 0 ….. ord
2 --> 0 ….. phl
2 --> 0 ….. pit
1 --> 0 ….. rdu
1 --> 0 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 24.... total (25 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

And I think that is being generous. LAS, MCO, TPA and LAX might have some niche O&D traffic, but seems better served by a WN or F9 trying to start a new focus city. The only thing DL has to offer is legacy frequent flyers, and maybe a few corporate contracts, that will probably be looking to get out of those contracts now. 24 flights can hardly even be one of their biggest outstations!


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8535 times:

Quoting CosmicCruiser (Reply 16):

Sadly for MEM they just finished a huge new parking garage.

How does DL's reduction of the MEM hub have any impact on the new garage? The O&D at MEM is still there and the connecting traffic which MEM is losing did not use the garage.


User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8492 times:

What's the future look like for the MEM SkyClub?

User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1542 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8443 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):

CVG is mostly status quo now because they've already been axed pretty sharply. I would be a bit surprised if we see any more huge cutbacks at CVG, because at this point they've pretty much got it to where they need it -- more or less right-sized to a self-sustaining level. The hub days are long gone, but it's now in a "long-run equilibrium"-type state for DL, and the only change I'd wager will be what PHX mentions about the eventual/gradual shift to mostly large RJs as they continue to dump 50-seaters.

In short, I'd doubt very strongly that DL has anything currently going on at CVG that doesn't somehow earn it's keep anymore, so major future cuts are less likely than say this new round at MEM.


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3379 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8113 times:

You like CVG...even if you dont realize it you have a slight bias


CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.

Matter of time ... especially with 50 seaters going away.

Sad but likely true


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3466 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7947 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 21):
CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.

Matter of time ... especially with 50 seaters going away.

Sad but likely true

You have no idea what will happen at CVG over the next decade. DL has shown no indication that CVG is not operating optimally, it actually has seen some increases in service recently. CVG and MEM are very different markets; CVG is a considerably larger and higher yielding market, and has a much stronger business community than MEM ever has.

Jeremy


User currently offlineSELMER40 From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 98 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7903 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 18):
The O&D at MEM is still there...

Sadly the O&D at MEM isn't great. Recently the US Census Bureau ranked Memphis as the poorest large metro area in the United States.



Teaching this old dog a new trick
User currently offlinepit From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7718 times:

Quoting steex (Reply 1):
Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

11 --> 8 ….. atl ..... 8
3 --> 1 ….. cvg ..... 3
6 --> 3 ….. dtw ..... 5
3 --> 1 ….. lga ..... 4 + 1 JFK
3 --> 3 ….. msp ..... 5
3 --> 2 ….. slc ..... 2

These are the ones most surprising to me; even with service reductions, I didn't think we'd so quickly see the day where an airport like STL would have more service to DL hubs than MEM does (for sake of comparison, I've inserted STL frequencies in bold above). I understand that it does still have non-stop service to some key markets, directing some would-be connecting traffic away from the hubs unlike what occurs at other spokes, but it's a bit unexpected to see spokes pulled down so aggressively while also reducing the connecting opportunities at the hubs.

Cities like PIT, STL, RDU etc.. will have more/better DL service than MEM. Its a sad sight.
PIT frequencies below for the heck of it..
atl 8D
lga 7D
dtw 5D
msp 4D
jfk 3D
cvg 3D
mem 2D (suprising to see it stay)
Total 32D

nas 1W Seasonally
puj 1W Seasonally
cdg 1D Seasonally


25 adamh8297 : There's a good chance that one BOS flight was supported by the remaining connections available. I doubt B6 or WN starts BOS-MEM as a result of these
26 LHCVG : I beg to differ - at this stage, the vast majority of flights can be explained by 1) DL hubs/focus cities/key business markets 2) local business O&am
27 TheGov : There was speculation and concern that US would drop this route if the locals didn't support it. If DL does drop MEM-DCA totally, I'm sure this route
28 psa1011 : What about MEM-SEA? I thought was a route that DL was bringing back.
29 FlyASAGuy2005 : My prediction of the ultimate fate of MEM. What's on the left is what's currently being loaded and what's on the right is what I think will eventually
30 Indy : I see no way in the world that MEM-IND as DL route still exists by this time next year. The only flight on that route will be FX. Edit: Let me just a
31 Alsatian : I was also wondering if that route could be re-launched considering DL's build up at SEA. But given that even NYC will be reduced to a single daily C
32 Cubsrule : MEM-BOS has never had that much capacity. NW ran 50 seaters on it for much of the 2000s. It's a long flight without much O&D. BNA--which is simil
33 capitalflyer : My guess would be DTW. They already have hourly service to ATL, and the time of the MEM flight (6pm) would be a great time to add a flight to DTW. Th
34 slcdeltarumd11 : It is truly amazing that LGA-MEM can only handle 1x daily and JFK can handle 0x daily. Amazing when you consider how many cities support like 2x and 3
35 airliner371 : I would not be surprised if in the next 2-3 years WN is larger at MEM than DL.
36 pwm2txlhopper : When I use to fly this route in the 1990s, it was usually on a NW 757. Also rode my first A320 on the route in 1993.
37 knope2001 : The weekly OAG thread shows MEM-DCA as going to 0, so that supports what the online timetable says.
38 incitatus : All it takes is AA to announce LGA-MEM once a day and DL will up it to 4 x.
39 Flaps : The reason that cities like PIT and IND have and will continue to remain out of MEM is stated above somewhere. These cities have very large FedEx oper
40 CompensateMe : PDEW market share has been within the 50-60 in both markets - which is consistent with most of the remaining local markets. That said, DL's dropped m
41 MIflyer12 : Not AA. One daily DL can coexist very nicely with one daily AA at very high fare levels.
42 Airxliban : Does anyone know if DL using the LGA slots to add service somewhere else, now that MEM is being reduced?
43 IAHWorldflyer : I've been flying into MEM bi-monthly recently due to an ill family member. It's amazing to me that in the afternoon, the line at security for the B te
44 tommy767 : I'm pretty shocked that LAX and LGA won't remain at 2-3x a day. I thought loads would have been strong enough since DL is the only carrier in the mar
45 SouthernDC9 : I flew into MEM last Friday and was amazed at how deserted the place is - the monitors that used to be filled with flights literally had like one par
46 MSJYOP28Apilot : With the US Airways/AA slot divestiture coming from DCA and it effecting mainly regional flying, what are the chances that MEM-DCA becomes completely
47 Post contains images tommy767 : 3 years makes a big difference. Down the hall in 2010 I remember the boarding of a 763 on MEM-AMS
48 SouthernDC9 : Totally - that wing seems to be completely closed off now, I believe... ah, well... Memphis is a weird little underperforming city (the retail scene
49 Post contains images tommy767 : Its funny because I remember 3 years ago I was sitting next to a big wig health care professional in F and he was saying that the MEM-AMS flight was
50 STT757 : UA is at 3x daily on EWR-MEM.
51 tommy767 : That's EWR not LGA. And EWR is on the stupid E145s.
52 STT757 : I'm pointing out EWR can support three flights a day to MEM on UA and LGA cannot sustain more than a single daily flight to MEM on DL.
53 tommy767 : I would assume DL's flight to LGA would be mainline, if not a larger RJ than the 145. But your point is irrelevant since UA depends on feed into the
54 STT757 : I disagree, as you shared with your observations of passengers at MEM there's a pharmaceutical presence in Memphis. New Jersey, as you may be familia
55 tommy767 : My point in that post was to point out that despite the so-called pharma community in MEM, it didn't translate to more flights and in fact a complete
56 STT757 : Well MEM and EWR are both FedEx hubs, so there's a connection. But with regards to Pharma there's Pfizer which has a presence in both Memphis and New
57 tommy767 : Jersey ain't the center of the universe
58 STT757 : For Pharma?
59 ScottB : I know I sound like a broken record on this, but the September schedule change was the end of the MEM-BOS flight. It was re-timed such that there wer
60 Cubsrule : IIRC it was all CRJ in the 2005-2007 timeframe.
61 knope2001 : Isn't that so much the truth on the drawdown at Memphis? The words set...up...to...fail come to mind. Sadly it's not just DL at MEM where I've seen s
62 MIflyer12 : Knope, you've done some great analysis but you're really whizzing into the wind on this. Small city/marginal hubs in proximity to successful big hubs
63 Post contains images incitatus : But it is right next to it!
64 knope2001 : I thnk you're reading far too much into my statement. I'm not defending the maco-level viability of small-market hubs which rely mostly on small airc
65 cslusarc : Personally I think that the only aircraft that fits MEM-BOS nonstop is a 50-seat RJ. Since DL doesn't like operating 50-seat RJs on flights longer tha
66 Cubsrule : Wouldn't dropping fares possibly be an answer to that question? Let's imagine that the average prorate for a connecting passenger on MEM-BOS is $150
67 knope2001 : That can work in certain situations, but it can only go so far. The more you lower fares to stimulate traffic, the lower yields are. With the 39 @ $3
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