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DL/MEM Cut Details, Including BOS And DCA  
User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 11963 times:

The most recent DL MEM Cuts thread won't allow posts, but it looks like the are finally loaded now. The initial cuts loaded included CMH, BNA, MKE and SDF drops but they didn't get down to the 44/day states until recently.

Here are some notable additional cuts beyond those already noted:

MEM-BOS ends
MEM-LGA decreases to 1x
MEM-CVG decreases from 3x to 1x
MEM-DCA either decreases to 1x (per website) or ends complete (per online timetable)

These cuts all take place after the holidays. With these additional changes MEM gets down to the originally-stated 44/day, or actually 43/day if the MEM-DCA cut loaded to the online timetable is accurate and ahead of the website. Here's a breakdown, comparing this Monday to the first Monday after the new schedule takes effect in January:

11 --> 8 ….. atl
1 --> 1 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 2 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 1 ….. den
2 --> 2 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 2 ….. iah
2 --> 2 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 1 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 3 ….. ord
2 --> 1 ….. phl
2 --> 2 ….. pit
1 --> 1 ….. rdu
1 --> 1 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 43.... total (44 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

Breakdown for November
22 mainline
17 large RJ
26 50-seat RJ

Breakdown for January post-holiday
16 mainline
7 large RJ
19 50-seat RJ

Sad to say for Memphis but this is worse than what I think people expected. The proportion of 50-seat RJ's is higher in the January schedule (44% of all departures) than November (40% of all departures). Memphis loses Boston, sees LaGuardia drop to 1x CR9, sees Philadelphia drop to 1x CR9, and sees DCA drop to 1x CR9 or end entirely. When it comes to the non-hub flying left, most everything is 50-seat RJs. O'Hare has 1x CR9 and 2x CRJ, but all of the other regional markets are 1 or 2 50-seat RJ's. Those seem to be the most vulnerable. That Memphis would have a *higher* portion of 50-seat RJ's is not exactly a sign cuts are over.

67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1611 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11821 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

11 --> 8 ….. atl ..... 8
3 --> 1 ….. cvg ..... 3
6 --> 3 ….. dtw ..... 5
3 --> 1 ….. lga ..... 4 + 1 JFK
3 --> 3 ….. msp ..... 5
3 --> 2 ….. slc ..... 2

These are the ones most surprising to me; even with service reductions, I didn't think we'd so quickly see the day where an airport like STL would have more service to DL hubs than MEM does (for sake of comparison, I've inserted STL frequencies in bold above). I understand that it does still have non-stop service to some key markets, directing some would-be connecting traffic away from the hubs unlike what occurs at other spokes, but it's a bit unexpected to see spokes pulled down so aggressively while also reducing the connecting opportunities at the hubs.


User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11817 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Sad to say for Memphis but this is worse than what I think people expected.

CVG is next on the chopping block I have a feeling...



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 3, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11683 times:

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 2):
CVG is next on the chopping block I have a feeling...

FYI I checked what's currently on the desktop schedule to see if any new cuts showed up for CVG and nothing really sticks out. But CVG is still heavily 50-seat RJ's...more than 60% of total. So far everything seems status quo.


User currently offlineaerorobnz From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7172 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11557 times:

when I was spotting at MEM it was pretty dead really. Sad, but thank goodness for FX.

User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2274 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 11090 times:

such a shame   I'm sure in a years time a lot of those spoke cities will be gone and all that will be left will be hubs, LAX and maybe MCO. I'm surprised they cut it down pretty quick from the originally de-hubbing in Sept. Perhaps maybe if they would have banked some of those flights a little better to allow for connections it might have worked.

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 10997 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 3):
FYI I checked what's currently on the desktop schedule to see if any new cuts showed up for CVG and nothing really sticks out. But CVG is still heavily 50-seat RJ's...more than 60% of total. So far everything seems status quo.

Some of the gossip going around is most of that will eventually switch over to larger RJs, which will indeed mean a lower frequency of service, but from what I can understand, we won't suffer so much of a catastrophic blow as MEM has....for the time being.

If the economy remains sluggish, if fuel prices skyrocket out of control, I'll give CVG another 3 or 4 years as a hub....but if the US economy improves, if CVG indeed becomes a revitalized town (as it is slowly becoming), if the new service by other airlines drives competition by DL, we may see CVG make a resurgence. But in all realities, right now no one knows the future. We can only go off of how well they're doing right now--and they seem pretty good.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently onlinestrfyr51 From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 1100 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10876 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??

User currently offlinemidway7 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 10519 times:

Just curious - why is ORD staying at 3 a day? Not to say it is bad, but it stands out when most other destinations are being reduced much further or eliminated.

User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3392 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 10024 times:

Shocked LGA is 1x a day. They fly to tiny towns more than that from LGA. Would think 2 or 3 a day would remain.

User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 757 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 9779 times:

It's surprising to see that service to other airline hub markets (DFW and CLT) are holding steady. You'd think those routes would be the first to go...especially CLT.

Also, I would expect markets like DEN, PIT, SAT, IND to be entirely cut at some point in the near future.


User currently offlineJFKL1011 From United States of America, joined Oct 2013, 57 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9631 times:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 7):
does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??

I dont follow....SDF, which is the 5X worldport is down to zero. Other than that, the only major 5X ops are DFW, PHL, ONT, RFD and CAE.

Outside of MEM, FX has major ops at EWR, IND, OAK, MIA and AFW.

And DHL contracts all of its US ops to GB and PO.

So where is this "maintaining" that you speak of???



So many places to fly and increasingly so few interesting aircraft to get there on.
User currently offlineredtailmsp From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 206 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9499 times:

What I find most shocking is that MEM-ATL is being reduced from 11 to 8 daily. This is at the same time as Air Tran cancel their 4 daily flights in this market, leaving DL as a monopoly in this market. I travel this route frequently on DL, and see a healthy local market, with many business travelers. DL would scoop up whatever local traffic Air Tran has, as well as a fair proportion of their connecting traffic - yet here we see basically a reduction of 450 seats in each direction on a daily basis. I would have expected at the very least a maintaining of the frequency, not a significant reduction. At the same time, I see a reduction is flights to other DL hubs - DTW / SLC /LGA. To me, this all demonstrates how weak the MEM market really is, with the apparant result that DL appears disinterested in maintaining market share there.

User currently offlinethreeifbyair From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 672 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9209 times:

Wonder where the DCA slots will end up. I'm not sure we need more DCA-ATL flights but with the slot swap DL has axed most of the P2P flying at DCA, so I suspect it will be a hub route.

US is probably pretty happy to be running DL off of a DCA route.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7048 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 9139 times:

Quoting redtailmsp (Reply 12):
What I find most shocking is that MEM-ATL is being reduced from 11 to 8 daily. This is at the same time as Air Tran cancel their 4 daily flights in this market, leaving DL as a monopoly in this market.

Not shocking at all. DL always reduces service when competition goes away. UA/AA do the same thing.


User currently offlineEXMEMWIDGET From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8934 times:

It is sad to see my old hometown's airline service shrinking down this much. In a few years as far as DL is concerned, MEM will probably only have service to it's hubs and maybe a token amount of service to places like LAX, LGA, DCA and MCO.

User currently offlineCosmicCruiser From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2255 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8913 times:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 7):
does anybody notice that the ONLY places being maintained seem to be major points where either UPS, DHL or FEDEX have larger operations??



??? It doesn't get much bigger than FDX MEM.

Sadly for MEM they just finished a huge new parking garage.


User currently offlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 379 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8639 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
11 --> 8 ….. atl
1 --> 1 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 2 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 1 ….. den
2 --> 2 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 2 ….. iah
2 --> 2 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 1 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 3 ….. ord
2 --> 1 ….. phl
2 --> 2 ….. pit
1 --> 1 ….. rdu
1 --> 1 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 43.... total (44 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

So then, my predictions for what will happen in the next 6 months to year. Without connections, some of these routes cannot survive.
1 --> 0 ….. aus
1 --> 0 ….. bna
1 --> 0 ….. bos
3 --> 0 ….. clt
1 --> 0 ….. cmh
3 --> 1 ….. cvg
2 --> 0 ….. dca (per online timetable -- website shows 1+)
1 --> 0 ….. den
2 --> 0 ….. dfw
6 --> 3 ….. dtw
2 --> 0 ….. iah
2 --> 0 ….. ind
1 --> 1 ….. las
2 --> 1 ….. lax
3 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 0 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco
1 --> 0 ….. mke
3 --> 3 ….. msp
3 --> 2 ….. msy
3 --> 0 ….. ord
2 --> 0 ….. phl
2 --> 0 ….. pit
1 --> 0 ….. rdu
1 --> 0 ….. sat
1 --> 0 ….. sdf
3 --> 2 ….. slc
1 --> 1 ….. tpa
65 .. 24.... total (25 if MEM-DCA is not dropped)

And I think that is being generous. LAS, MCO, TPA and LAX might have some niche O&D traffic, but seems better served by a WN or F9 trying to start a new focus city. The only thing DL has to offer is legacy frequent flyers, and maybe a few corporate contracts, that will probably be looking to get out of those contracts now. 24 flights can hardly even be one of their biggest outstations!


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8549 times:

Quoting CosmicCruiser (Reply 16):

Sadly for MEM they just finished a huge new parking garage.

How does DL's reduction of the MEM hub have any impact on the new garage? The O&D at MEM is still there and the connecting traffic which MEM is losing did not use the garage.


User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 757 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8506 times:

What's the future look like for the MEM SkyClub?

User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1547 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8457 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):

CVG is mostly status quo now because they've already been axed pretty sharply. I would be a bit surprised if we see any more huge cutbacks at CVG, because at this point they've pretty much got it to where they need it -- more or less right-sized to a self-sustaining level. The hub days are long gone, but it's now in a "long-run equilibrium"-type state for DL, and the only change I'd wager will be what PHX mentions about the eventual/gradual shift to mostly large RJs as they continue to dump 50-seaters.

In short, I'd doubt very strongly that DL has anything currently going on at CVG that doesn't somehow earn it's keep anymore, so major future cuts are less likely than say this new round at MEM.


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3392 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8127 times:

You like CVG...even if you dont realize it you have a slight bias


CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.

Matter of time ... especially with 50 seaters going away.

Sad but likely true


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3466 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7961 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 21):
CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.

Matter of time ... especially with 50 seaters going away.

Sad but likely true

You have no idea what will happen at CVG over the next decade. DL has shown no indication that CVG is not operating optimally, it actually has seen some increases in service recently. CVG and MEM are very different markets; CVG is a considerably larger and higher yielding market, and has a much stronger business community than MEM ever has.

Jeremy


User currently offlineSELMER40 From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 98 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7917 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 18):
The O&D at MEM is still there...

Sadly the O&D at MEM isn't great. Recently the US Census Bureau ranked Memphis as the poorest large metro area in the United States.



Teaching this old dog a new trick
User currently offlinepit From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 7732 times:

Quoting steex (Reply 1):
Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

11 --> 8 ….. atl ..... 8
3 --> 1 ….. cvg ..... 3
6 --> 3 ….. dtw ..... 5
3 --> 1 ….. lga ..... 4 + 1 JFK
3 --> 3 ….. msp ..... 5
3 --> 2 ….. slc ..... 2

These are the ones most surprising to me; even with service reductions, I didn't think we'd so quickly see the day where an airport like STL would have more service to DL hubs than MEM does (for sake of comparison, I've inserted STL frequencies in bold above). I understand that it does still have non-stop service to some key markets, directing some would-be connecting traffic away from the hubs unlike what occurs at other spokes, but it's a bit unexpected to see spokes pulled down so aggressively while also reducing the connecting opportunities at the hubs.

Cities like PIT, STL, RDU etc.. will have more/better DL service than MEM. Its a sad sight.
PIT frequencies below for the heck of it..
atl 8D
lga 7D
dtw 5D
msp 4D
jfk 3D
cvg 3D
mem 2D (suprising to see it stay)
Total 32D

nas 1W Seasonally
puj 1W Seasonally
cdg 1D Seasonally


User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 844 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8110 times:

Quoting SELMER40 (Reply 23):
Sadly the O&D at MEM isn't great.

There's a good chance that one BOS flight was supported by the remaining connections available. I doubt B6 or WN starts BOS-MEM as a result of these cuts

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 21):
CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.
Quoting SESGDL (Reply 22):
CVG is a considerably larger and higher yielding market, and has a much stronger business community than MEM ever has.

CVG has a bigger CSA (2.1 million vs 1.3 million).

CVG-BOS for Q1 2013 was 152 PDEW
MEM-BOS for Q1 2013 was 74 PDEW

I'm not going to speculate what DL will do with CVG. However, if what was done in MEM is done in CVG, at a minimum B6 is coming in with BOS/FLL/MCO, WN comes in with BWI/STL/MDW/BNA/DEN and seasonal PHX, and UA starts SFO at least seasonally.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1547 posts, RR: 1
Reply 26, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8093 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 21):
You like CVG...even if you dont realize it you have a slight bias


CVG will lose all flights to non hubs over the next decade.

Matter of time ... especially with 50 seaters going away.

Sad but likely true

I beg to differ - at this stage, the vast majority of flights can be explained by

1) DL hubs/focus cities/key business markets
2) local business O&D
3) leisure/VFR O&D where they have a monopoly so it's viable for DL to keep with no WN/B6/NK to challenge them (e.g., MCO, TPA, etc.)

I'm not saying--at all--that CVG may not lose additional service. However, when you look at the routes currently left at CVG, they mostly fall into one or more of those categories. Even if particular routes aren't necessarily cash cows, they serve some purpose for DL that works for them. So no, I do not think there will be massive future cuts, mostly tweaking and further right-sizing of frequencies vs. seat counts as more 50's leave the fleet.


User currently offlineTheGov From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 27, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 8055 times:

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 13):
US is probably pretty happy to be running DL off of a DCA route.

There was speculation and concern that US would drop this route if the locals didn't support it. If DL does drop MEM-DCA totally, I'm sure this route will stay with US as it instantly becomes a monopoly. They only point of concern I would have with this route would be if the US/AA merger negotiations with the DOT require the elimination of some DCA slots by the combined airline. If the traffic is weak, US/AA could drop this route/slot for a more profitable city pair.

As for the reduction in MEM-ATL flying, one could only hope that, with the reduction of 3 trips, the aircraft would be up-gauged to maybe a 757 during peak hours to keep the seat numbers the same. The more realistic person in me expects almost every trip to be with the 717 or similar aircraft.

My guess is that DL is looking long term at the impact of WN on the MEM market. It would appear as though DL is (eagerly) conceding defeat in MEM and opting to use the aircraft that become available for more profitable routes. Although the 3 x daily to ORD is a little odd since WN just started MEM-MDW.

As others have said, I am sure that this is not the last cut MEM will see. Maybe the next to last, but not last.



Always a pallbearer, never a corpse.
User currently offlinepsa1011 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7841 times:
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What about MEM-SEA? I thought was a route that DL was bringing back.

User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 29, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 7665 times:

My prediction of the ultimate fate of MEM. What's on the left is what's currently being loaded and what's on the right is what I think will eventually happen.

8 --> 10 ….. atl
1 --> 0 ….. aus
2 --> 0 ….. clt
1 --> 2 ….. cvg
1 --> 0 ….. den
2 --> 0 ….. dfw
3 --> 4 ….. dtw
2 --> 0 ….. iah
2 --> 0 ….. ind
1 --> 0 ….. las
1 --> 1 ….. lax
1 --> 1 ….. lga
1 --> 0 ….. mci
1 --> 1 ….. mco (seasonal)
3 --> 4 ….. msp
2 --> 0 ….. msy
3 --> 0 ….. ord
1 --> 0 ….. phl
2 --> 0 ….. pit
1 --> 0 ….. rdu
1 --> 0 ….. sat
2 --> 3 ….. slc
1 --> 0 ….. tpa
43 .. 26.... total



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4537 posts, RR: 18
Reply 30, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 7380 times:

Quoting seatback (Reply 10):
Also, I would expect markets like DEN, PIT, SAT, IND to be entirely cut at some point in the near future.

I see no way in the world that MEM-IND as DL route still exists by this time next year. The only flight on that route will be FX.

Edit: Let me just add that the only way this route might stay is a 1x daily 50 seater subsidized by Fedex as a shuttle service. And I'm not sure FX would even do such a thing.

[Edited 2013-11-10 13:08:11]


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently onlineAlsatian From France, joined May 2005, 418 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 7111 times:

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 28):
What about MEM-SEA? I thought was a route that DL was bringing back.

I was also wondering if that route could be re-launched considering DL's build up at SEA. But given that even NYC will be reduced to a single daily CR9 flight, I can hardly believe it.



Ok I am French but I am not on strike
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22739 posts, RR: 20
Reply 32, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6639 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 25):
There's a good chance that one BOS flight was supported by the remaining connections available. I doubt B6 or WN starts BOS-MEM as a result of these cuts

MEM-BOS has never had that much capacity. NW ran 50 seaters on it for much of the 2000s. It's a long flight without much O&D. BNA--which is similarly located but has a much stronger O&D market--has historically struggled to retain BOS service, and the current service on WN has plenty of connections propping it up.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 33, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6345 times:

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 13):
Wonder where the DCA slots will end up.

My guess would be DTW. They already have hourly service to ATL, and the time of the MEM flight (6pm) would be a great time to add a flight to DTW. They currently have one during 5pm hour and 7pm hour. This would be the least complicated, wouldn't have to go to DOT to ask to change the time of the slot. They could even use the same equipment if they wanted (CR7).


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5736 times:

It is truly amazing that LGA-MEM can only handle 1x daily and JFK can handle 0x daily. Amazing when you consider how many cities support like 2x and 3x to LGA that Delta isn't even strong in. Two cities where Delta has strong bases of FFs there cant be too much business demand or people not willing to connect for the lowest price.

The cities holding on at this point there must be some business o&d and last minute bookers to keep them worth flying. I do think CVG is next and more MEM as they retire more and more high per seat cost RJs.


User currently offlineairliner371 From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 1378 posts, RR: 2
Reply 35, posted (8 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5663 times:

I would not be surprised if in the next 2-3 years WN is larger at MEM than DL.


You will either love or hate the airline industry. If you love it, it will get in your blood and it will never leave.
User currently onlinepwm2txlhopper From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 1323 posts, RR: 1
Reply 36, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4412 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 25):

MEM-BOS has never had that much capacity. NW ran 50 seaters on it for much of the 2000s

When I use to fly this route in the 1990s, it was usually on a NW 757. Also rode my first A320 on the route in 1993.


User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 37, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4320 times:

The weekly OAG thread shows MEM-DCA as going to 0, so that supports what the online timetable says.

User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4003 posts, RR: 13
Reply 38, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3974 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):
It is truly amazing that LGA-MEM can only handle 1x daily and JFK can handle 0x daily.

All it takes is AA to announce LGA-MEM once a day and DL will up it to 4 x.


User currently onlineFlaps From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 1261 posts, RR: 4
Reply 39, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3937 times:

The reason that cities like PIT and IND have and will continue to remain out of MEM is stated above somewhere. These cities have very large FedEx operations (IND major hub and PIT is the headquarters for FedEx Ground). There is strong O&D on these routes and absent FedEx starting their own corporate shuttle or WN taking an interest (neither of which is likely) DL will maintain these flights.

User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1063 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3794 times:

Quoting Flaps (Reply 39):
The reason that cities like PIT and IND have and will continue to remain out of MEM is stated above somewhere. These cities have very large FedEx operations (IND major hub and PIT is the headquarters for FedEx Ground). There is strong O&D on these routes and absent FedEx starting their own corporate shuttle or WN taking an interest (neither of which is likely) DL will maintain these flights.

PDEW market share has been within the 50-60 in both markets - which is consistent with most of the remaining local markets. That said, DL's dropped markets with greater PDEW share as well as higher average fares. Thus, no route should be assumed safe.

Future service levels at MEM will be reliant on the local market's continued usage of DL's service, although I agree it's probable future reductions will continue.



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 972 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3792 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 38):
All it takes is AA to announce LGA-MEM once a day and DL will up it to 4 x.

Not AA. One daily DL can coexist very nicely with one daily AA at very high fare levels.


User currently offlineAirxliban From Lebanon, joined Oct 2003, 4507 posts, RR: 53
Reply 42, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3737 times:

Does anyone know if DL using the LGA slots to add service somewhere else, now that MEM is being reduced?


PARIS, FRANCE...THE BEIRUT OF EUROPE.
User currently offlineIAHWorldflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 219 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (8 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3114 times:

I've been flying into MEM bi-monthly recently due to an ill family member. It's amazing to me that in the afternoon, the line at security for the B terminal ( DL) is non-existant, and the C terminal security lines are much longer, due to AA/US/UA having multiple flights departing at the same time.
From what I gather in the local Memphis media, WN has been embraced by the local market. Any speculation that WN will add a few more flights to their MEM schedule in late Spring?


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 44, posted (8 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3007 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 34):

I'm pretty shocked that LAX and LGA won't remain at 2-3x a day. I thought loads would have been strong enough since DL is the only carrier in the market.

Sad. I flew through MEM in 2010 and it was bustling. I remember MEM-EWR in F on the 170. Pretty cool and well missed.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineSouthernDC9 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 419 posts, RR: 0
Reply 45, posted (8 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 2951 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 44):
Sad. I flew through MEM in 2010 and it was bustling. I remember MEM-EWR in F on the 170. Pretty cool and well missed.

I flew into MEM last Friday and was amazed at how deserted the place is - the monitors that used to be filled with flights literally had like one part of one screen filled... all the businesses in the terminal have got to be hurting big time... my RDU-MEM flight was completely full (unlike BWI-RDU) but that doesn't mean much... I did get to see one of the new AA 319s so that was nifty...



What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
User currently offlineMSJYOP28Apilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 46, posted (8 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 2811 times:

With the US Airways/AA slot divestiture coming from DCA and it effecting mainly regional flying, what are the chances that MEM-DCA becomes completely unserved by anyone? Could WN shift their MEM-BWI flight to DCA or add a MEM-DCA flight in addition to MEM-BWI?

User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 47, posted (8 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 2795 times:

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 45):

3 years makes a big difference. Down the hall in 2010 I remember the boarding of a 763 on MEM-AMS  



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineSouthernDC9 From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 419 posts, RR: 0
Reply 48, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2735 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 47):
3 years makes a big difference. Down the hall in 2010 I remember the boarding of a 763 on MEM-AMS

Totally - that wing seems to be completely closed off now, I believe... ah, well... Memphis is a weird little underperforming city (the retail scene there is quite blah as well) but the zoo is spectacular and worth the trip to Memphis (along with the Peabody and their ducks).



What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 49, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2735 times:

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 48):

Its funny because I remember 3 years ago I was sitting next to a big wig health care professional in F and he was saying that the MEM-AMS flight was always full and that it was because the health care scene in MEM was blowing up. Apparently not so much.

Again a lot changes in 3 years. 3 years ago I was flying LAX-MEM-EWR to go home for Easter. Then I moved home for 2.5 years, and now I'm back in LA. No more transiting through MEM anymore though  



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16829 posts, RR: 51
Reply 50, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2664 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 44):
I'm pretty shocked that LAX and LGA won't remain at 2-3x a day. I thought loads would have been strong enough since DL is the only carrier in the market.

UA is at 3x daily on EWR-MEM.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 51, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2663 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 50):

That's EWR not LGA. And EWR is on the stupid E145s.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16829 posts, RR: 51
Reply 52, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2667 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 51):
That's EWR not LGA. And EWR is on the stupid E145s.



I'm pointing out EWR can support three flights a day to MEM on UA and LGA cannot sustain more than a single daily flight to MEM on DL.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 53, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2653 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 52):

I would assume DL's flight to LGA would be mainline, if not a larger RJ than the 145.

But your point is irrelevant since UA depends on feed into the EWR hub, and DL's hub in LGA serves a completely different purpose.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16829 posts, RR: 51
Reply 54, posted (8 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2585 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 53):
But your point is irrelevant since UA depends on feed into the EWR hub, and DL's hub in LGA serves a completely different purpose.



I disagree, as you shared with your observations of passengers at MEM there's a pharmaceutical presence in Memphis. New Jersey, as you may be familiar being a former resident, is the Pharma capital of the country. New Jersey is to the Pharmaceutical industry what Houston is to the energy industry. I would argue that if that is the case there would probably be stronger business demand for EWR than LGA.

I just checked, DL is showing a CRJ-900 on LGA-MEM.

[Edited 2013-11-12 15:31:44]


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 55, posted (8 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2550 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 54):
I disagree, as you shared with your observations of passengers at MEM there's a pharmaceutical presence in Memphis. New Jersey, as you may be familiar being a former resident, is the Pharma capital of the country.

My point in that post was to point out that despite the so-called pharma community in MEM, it didn't translate to more flights and in fact a complete de-hub of MEM. Sad that he was wrong, but that's the way it is.

So no, I don't think MEM has really any direct business connections to Northern NJ. If that were the case DL probably would have kept MEM-EWR around longer. Somehow MEM-PHL remains so perhaps there is more of a business tie to MEM



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16829 posts, RR: 51
Reply 56, posted (8 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2461 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 55):
I don't think MEM has really any direct business connections to Northern NJ



Well MEM and EWR are both FedEx hubs, so there's a connection. But with regards to Pharma there's Pfizer which has a presence in both Memphis and New Jersey (Madison, Peapack, Florham Park).



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 57, posted (8 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2416 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 56):

Jersey ain't the center of the universe



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16829 posts, RR: 51
Reply 58, posted (8 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2413 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 57):
Jersey ain't the center of the universe

For Pharma?



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6713 posts, RR: 32
Reply 59, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2065 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
MEM-BOS ends
Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 25):
There's a good chance that one BOS flight was supported by the remaining connections available.

I know I sound like a broken record on this, but the September schedule change was the end of the MEM-BOS flight. It was re-timed such that there were no (or nearly no) connections possible at MEM. The O&D in the market can theoretically support a single frequency -- but the actual traffic is broken up among several potential itineraries/carriers since the schedule of the single daily flight doesn't work for everyone.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 17):
So then, my predictions for what will happen in the next 6 months to year. Without connections, some of these routes cannot survive.
...
3 --> 2 ….. msy

I am actually shocked to see MEM-MSY survived this round. It could hypothetically be an important regional business market, but with fares nearly $1/mile, most will drive. I doubt it survives until the summer.

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
2 --> 2 ….. dfw
2 --> 2 ….. iah

I'm inclined to believe that MEM-IAH remains to counter WN's new MEM-HOU, and that MEM-DFW survives due to the likely addition of MEM-DAL in the next 12 months. In any event, the schedule isn't competitive with UA or AA to their hubs.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
MEM-BOS has never had that much capacity. NW ran 50 seaters on it for much of the 2000s. It's a long flight without much O&D.

MEM-BOS had 1-2 daily mainline flights before the CRJ's were used to bump up frequency. IIRC, around the merger, MEM-BOS had 3 daily E175's.


User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22739 posts, RR: 20
Reply 60, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1988 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 59):
MEM-BOS had 1-2 daily mainline flights before the CRJ's were used to bump up frequency.

IIRC it was all CRJ in the 2005-2007 timeframe.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 61, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1968 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 59):
I know I sound like a broken record on this, but the September schedule change was the end of the MEM-BOS flight. It was re-timed such that there were no (or nearly no) connections possible at MEM. The O&D in the market can theoretically support a single frequency -- but the actual traffic is broken up among several potential itineraries/carriers since the schedule of the single daily flight doesn't work for everyone.

Isn't that so much the truth on the drawdown at Memphis? The words set...up...to...fail come to mind. Sadly it's not just DL at MEM where I've seen stuff like this. Yes, connections don't bring in as much revenue and generally can't make a route profitable -- that's been a key problem at MEM for a long time. But you often need connections to supplement the local demand and push total revenue higher than costs. A lot of the September schedule changes at Memphis absoutely killed connectivity, and then anyone should be surprised that the local demand alone wasn't strong enough to justfiy a flight in that particular market. Shocker...


User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 972 posts, RR: 0
Reply 62, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1932 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 61):
Isn't that so much the truth on the drawdown at Memphis? The words set...up...to...fail come to mind. Sadly it's not just DL at MEM where I've seen stuff like this.

Knope, you've done some great analysis but you're really whizzing into the wind on this. Small city/marginal hubs in proximity to successful big hubs are doomed to fail. That's true if it's MEM vs. DFW, IAH (or own airline ATL); it's true of MKE vs. AA@ORD, UA@ORD, and MSP; it was true of AA@BNA against ATL and CLT. They don't have the O&D base. They can't offer the range of non-stop destinations, nor the frequency to business markets. With fuel costs since 2005, small planes on a seat-mile basis are just financial anchors.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4003 posts, RR: 13
Reply 63, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 1799 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 57):
Jersey ain't the center of the universe

But it is right next to it!  


User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 64, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1729 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 62):
Knope, you've done some great analysis but you're really whizzing into the wind on this. Small city/marginal hubs in proximity to successful big hubs are doomed to fail. That's true if it's MEM vs. DFW, IAH (or own airline ATL); it's true of MKE vs. AA@ORD, UA@ORD, and MSP; it was true of AA@BNA against ATL and CLT. They don't have the O&D base. They can't offer the range of non-stop destinations, nor the frequency to business markets. With fuel costs since 2005, small planes on a seat-mile basis are just financial anchors.

I thnk you're reading far too much into my statement. I'm not defending the maco-level viability of small-market hubs which rely mostly on small aircraft. Not in the least.

I'm saying that the retooled Memphis schedule rolled out in September was doomed to fail because they took RJ markets which were already too light on local passengers and largely took away the connecting traffic.

Before the schedule change, here's approximately how the 1x/day MEM-BOS performed using DoT stats:

39 local MEM-BOS passengers (assuming a generous 90% of Delta's 45 local one way pax took the nonstop)
27 connecting xxx-MEM-BOS passengers
10 empy seats

The September schedule change retimed MEM-BOS and took away nearly all the connecting feed. That woudul leave those same 39 local passengers to fill 76 seats. Just don't see how that could possibly be more successful than what it replaced.

One could argue in general about how many local MEM-BOS passengers it would take to make a CR9 turn a profit, and maybe that's a very high number. But I don't see how they expected taking away the connecting traffic would have remedied the situation.


User currently offlinecslusarc From Canada, joined May 2005, 838 posts, RR: 0
Reply 65, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 1619 times:

Personally I think that the only aircraft that fits MEM-BOS nonstop is a 50-seat RJ. Since DL doesn't like operating 50-seat RJs on flights longer than 750 miles, then the next best option is a direct one stop routing. Which one stop routing do you like: MEM-CVG-BOS, MEM-DCA-BOS or MEM-LGA-BOS?

[Edited 2013-11-13 14:09:05]


--cslusarc from YWG
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22739 posts, RR: 20
Reply 66, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1429 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 64):
One could argue in general about how many local MEM-BOS passengers it would take to make a CR9 turn a profit, and maybe that's a very high number. But I don't see how they expected taking away the connecting traffic would have remedied the situation.

Wouldn't dropping fares possibly be an answer to that question? Let's imagine that the average prorate for a connecting passenger on MEM-BOS is $150 and the average local fare is $325 (I think this number is close to what DL gets most quarters). Using your numbers of 39 locals and 27 connecting, that means $12,675 in revenue from the local passengers and $4,050 in revenue from the connecting passengers, so local passengers contribute more than three fourths of the revenue. Dropping fares in a particular city pair can certainly, in the right circumstances, increase total revenue, and the revenue drop from losing the connecting flow likely isn't huge in the grand scheme of things.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently onlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 67, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1378 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 66):
Wouldn't dropping fares possibly be an answer to that question? Let's imagine that the average prorate for a connecting passenger on MEM-BOS is $150 and the average local fare is $325 (I think this number is close to what DL gets most quarters). Using your numbers of 39 locals and 27 connecting, that means $12,675 in revenue from the local passengers and $4,050 in revenue from the connecting passengers, so local passengers contribute more than three fourths of the revenue. Dropping fares in a particular city pair can certainly, in the right circumstances, increase total revenue, and the revenue drop from losing the connecting flow likely isn't huge in the grand scheme of things.

That can work in certain situations, but it can only go so far. The more you lower fares to stimulate traffic, the lower yields are.

With the 39 @ $325 local / and 27 @ $150 connecting, total revenue is $16,725

Now let's say they remove the connections.
If they lower the local fare from $325 to $275, they'd need to stimulate 22 more locals per flight to get $16,775 revenue.

But that's only about the same level of revenue, and that's apparently a money-loser. Let's say they need 10% more revenue (about $18,400). To get that they'd need to stimulate 22 more passengers but still have a $300 average fare. That's nowhere near enough of a fare decrease to stimulate the market that much.

One other thing...in this particular case, I don't think Delta cut fares much to stimulate the local market.


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