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New Pilot Laws And The Shortage, Govt Actions?  
User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1769 posts, RR: 1
Posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9017 times:

With the new pilot laws (1500 hours, etc...) , making it hard for people without a ton of cash to get the amount of hours needed. And the empending shortage coming up, what does the government have up their sleeve to counter the shortage? Lower hours? Make it easier to get loans for school? I ask this because my brother and I are aspiring pilots.


Go coogs! \n//
82 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3730 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8975 times:

They offered reductions in required time to students who complete their training and earn aviation degrees from approved schools. 1,000 hours for a four-year college, 1,250 for a two-year college. That was clearly a move to pacify universities most likely to take a hit from the ATP law.

I'm afraid (and I get the feeling with the competence of the current government) that they'll think that's sufficient and call it a day, at least for now.



Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8772 times:

My prediction is cabotage coming our way.


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User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 3, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8680 times:

God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots, as the glut of entry level pilots which the airlines can pay almost nothing will be drying up. Some new pilots actually have to pay for the privilege of flying.

The solution to the cost for training issue is that the airlines might actually have to invest in training for their best candidates.

[Edited 2013-11-10 15:47:05]

User currently offlinecv640 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 952 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8575 times:

1500 hours has historically been the basic requirements. In the past you flight instructed, flew corporate, part 135, etc to build flight time. The past 5-6 years people got unreasonable expectations of walking into an airline with a brand new commercial certificate.

This law will weed out some, mostly those who thought it was a quick and easy path. Getting your flight time was always tough and a long term prospect.


User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2053 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8546 times:

Quoting cv640 (Reply 4):
1500 hours has historically been the basic requirements. In the past you flight instructed, flew corporate, part 135, etc to build flight time. The past 5-6 years people got unreasonable expectations of walking into an airline with a brand new commercial certificate.

This law will weed out some, mostly those who thought it was a quick and easy path. Getting your flight time was always tough and a long term prospect.

There aren't many students to instruct anymore, there's no need to fly checks and towing banners has been reduced quite a bit. There are fewer ways to get your time and get paid than ever before.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15719 posts, RR: 26
Reply 6, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8509 times:

Why should the government do anything? Having a higher standard will push salaries higher.


Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 7, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8237 times:
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Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots, as the glut of entry level pilots which the airlines can pay almost nothing will be drying up. Some new pilots actually have to pay for the privilege of flying.

I always thought this was to help military pilots find a job with the downsizing. e.g., the hints the navy will reduce air wings.   Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

This could either push salaries higher, or will bring back more of the US pilots who are now flying for foreign airlines. Probably a mixture of both. I'm not too worried due to the rationalizing of the RJ fleets up to 86 seaters.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 8, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7947 times:

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 1):
I'm afraid (and I get the feeling with the competence of the current government) that they'll think that's sufficient and call it a day, at least for now.

Why would that be a bad thing? Demand for pilots goes up, pilot wages go up. That's a good thing - the status of pilot wages in the US is abysmal, and anything that will change that is a good thing.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

   Though it's not really fair to call regional airlines entry-level jobs.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 9, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7951 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Should be zero. Unless we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator. Because those are pretty much the same thing.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6446 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Completely different skill set and orientation. A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others. It is apparently much easier to transition from a real pilot to a drone pilot than the other way around.

Quoting Mir (Reply 9):
we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator.

Drones are a bit more than FS. There are real consequences for crashing drones unlike FS. One area for getting new drone pilots is those military pilots, or pilot trainee candidates, who lost their flying status due to medical conditions.


User currently offlinecv640 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 952 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6128 times:

Again, if the hours requirements is hurting those trying to break in, you did some poor research. This law has been known about for years. When I got in I was told to expect to instruct for 3+ years.

If you had asked those who had been in the industry for any amount of time,we'd have warned you. Things move slowly in the airlines. Sorry if you believed a magazine advertisement, I wish they'd ban most of those for lack of accuracy.


User currently offlinen6238p From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 501 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6067 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 6):

Why should the government do anything? Having a higher standard will push salaries higher.

It appears the exact opposite has been the case so far. Just look at what is going on at Endeavor, was offered to Eagle, voted on by PSA, is about to be offered to XJT, soon to Skywest, and what is happening to Eagle and Air Wisconsin. Not to mention look at the mess other, shall remain nameless, regionals already are.

Apparently less pilots = better take concessions.



To actively root against anybody is just low, and I hope karma comes back at you with a vengeance
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 13, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6006 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
Drones are a bit more than FS. There are real consequences for crashing drones unlike FS.

Not to the operator there aren't. Ultimately, there's nothing you can do with a drone that you can't do with a desktop flight simulator, and the experience of operating one is quite similar.

Quoting n6238p (Reply 12):
It appears the exact opposite has been the case so far. Just look at what is going on at Endeavor, was offered to Eagle, voted on by PSA, is about to be offered to XJT, soon to Skywest, and what is happening to Eagle and Air Wisconsin. Not to mention look at the mess other, shall remain nameless, regionals already are.

Apparently less pilots = better take concessions.

To be fair, the requirements have only been around for a half a year, and there was still a sizable pool to clear out. If you waited about a year, things might be different.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 14, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5985 times:
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So far, the only airline I know that has been significantly impacted is Great lakes:
http://www.eturbonews.com/39572/airl...on-act-caused-disruption-air-servi

Now, I'm sure other low paying airlines will feel some pain. In particular once their pilots are in more demand. The real impact will be at the airports small airlines fly to:

"WNRA Director Darwin Skelton said the airport is aware of the cancellations and is worried that the airport might not reach a target of 10,000 annual boarding numbers by the end of the year in order to receive federal funding for the airport. Failure to reach the threshold could cost the airport $850,000 in federal funding."

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others.

Agreed. Hence why 'some hours.' They'll know flying in controlled airspace. Traversing FAA corridors (with a chase plane). I agree they need many hours, but some credit seems worthy. If enough small airports close, there will be a loophole created. This is a political crisis that eventually will have a political solution.

Or not... Perhaps the FAA is about to save a bunch of money in airport subsidies.  

There must be some impact as this list seems to have grown (warning, I'm going from a vague memory):
http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/currently_hiring

Quoting cv640 (Reply 11):
Sorry if you believed a magazine advertisement, I wish they'd ban most of those for lack of accuracy.

   So true.

Quoting Mir (Reply 8):
Though it's not really fair to call regional airlines entry-level jobs.

   It will be those further down the food chain who suffer first.

Quoting Mir (Reply 8):
Demand for pilots goes up, pilot wages go up. That's a good thing - the status of pilot wages in the US is abysmal, and anything that will change that is a good thing.

Agreed. But I think the transition is too abrupt. This will impact some smaller airports to the point they are non-viable for commercial service.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinemhockey31091 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 84 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5685 times:
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Recently I've had some of my friends interviewing and being hired by one specific regional airline. Lots of them have said that the caliber of pilot being hired there are subpar and shouldn't even be considered for those jobs. I believe that they are losing some 88 pilots a month and are doing their damnedest to try and fill all the slots they have!

User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6787 posts, RR: 34
Reply 16, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5596 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The 'shortage' isn't so much a lack of the number of qualified pilots,

I think I understand what you were saying, but the number of new pilot starts is down...there is a severe shortage of actual heads in the pipeline right now, not to mention the looming shortage due to the 117 rules that take effect in January.

The majors will always be able to pluck pilots from regionals. The regionals will pluck from the really small fries to some extent, but it's the carriers (such as Great Lakes as cited above) that will struggle.

The only carrier on that end of the spectrum that's been proactive in addressing it is Cape Air, with their Gateway program, run in conjunction with B6. Tremendous job by them to get ahead of things as best they can.

But inevitably, the govt will have to acquiesce I think because the number of qualified aviators--based on their purely arbitrary and capricious rules--will be too low. And that's without contemplating the retirement curve, which is another massive blow coming.


User currently offlinevio From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1401 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5560 times:

Well... not this s*it again...   

... but I'll play the game. I think the law is there to improve safety, NOT to help out every kid that dreams to be a pilot.


1. I don't want a 200 hr wonder at the controls of an aircraft with 20+ people unless:
A. That pilot has attended a proper school or some sort of airline cadet program
B. Is under the supervision of a training captain until he/she reaches a certain number of hours & skills.

2. These "cheappo-air" establishments that pay pilots less than McDonald's should sink! PERIOD! Let other airlines (that pay better) enter the market. If not, let them take the train or the bus.

3. There are ways to built your time up. Those who really want to fly for the majors will work hard and eventually reach their goal.



Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
User currently onlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1513 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5286 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
2. These "cheappo-air" establishments that pay pilots less than McDonald's should sink! PERIOD! Let other airlines (that pay better) enter the market. If not, let them take the train or the bus.

So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5226 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 18):
So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

I agree that the RLA is a relic. What should have happened long ago in the Republic case is the NMB should have released them to begin the 30 day cooling off period, because it is clear that the sides are making no progress, and even worse is that every other regional is asking for concessions, at a time when the ability to attract quality candidates should be improving, and not going the other way. I don't know if the reason Republic has not been released is due to lawsuits about the people on the NMB in general (they were recess appointments by Obama and there is a question of whether or not he had the ability to make such appointments), or if the president is trying to just prevent an airline strike from happening on his watch given the already fragile economy. (A Republic strike would hurt every single legacy airline in the country)

The other thing to keep an eye on in 2014 is FAR Part 117, which takes effect in January. This is also going to increase the need for pilots at the regional level to where they haven't been before, which is one reason I think airlines are trying to get concessions. Part 117, combined with the ATP laws, will have a pretty big impact, and what that is yet, nobody knows.


User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1359 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5073 times:

If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

Doesn't Lufthansa have a school in the US to train pilots for LH?


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 21, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 4956 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
I'm not too worried due to the rationalizing of the RJ fleets up to 86 seaters.

And mainline fleets as well.

Quoting Mir (Reply 9):
Should be zero. Unless we're going to give people credit for playing Flight Simulator. Because those are pretty much the same thing.

And flying an airliner is increasingly "pretty much the same thing".

Quoting apodino (Reply 19):
and even worse is that every other regional is asking for concessions, at a time when the ability to attract quality candidates should be improving, and not going the other way.

The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineadam42185 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 413 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 4953 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):
My prediction is cabotage coming our way.

I really hope not. I think that this is possibility but it is still pretty far down the road and I really hope that it doesn't come to this. Are other parts of the world having a shortage as well? If that's the case then cabotage wont really solve anything.


User currently offlinevio From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1401 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4899 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 18):
So basically, you're advocating the closing of every regional feed airline in the country? What needs to happen is the RLA needs amended. When airlines such as Republic that haven't had a contract in years can't strike, they have no power to do anything. Let them go on strike to get what they deserve.

-DiamondFlyer

Yes. And I say that as a pilot flying in the arctic trying to climb my way the airline ladder. Believe me, once I'm done my 4 year stint in the arctic and have about 2500 hrs total time, including at least 1000 PIC on multi engine turbine planes, I'll be a better qualified pilot to fly right seat in a CRJ or an A320 than some hot shot out of flight school with 250 hrs.

Someone with a better business model will come in and fill in the gap, even if it means reduced capacity and higher costs. I rather have 1000 pilots that get paid well, are properly rested and happy than 2000 poorly paid, overworked and stressed out pilots. Competition never hurt anyone, including us pilots trying to climb to the top. It makes us better.

Quoting ADent (Reply 20):

If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

Doesn't Lufthansa have a school in the US to train pilots for LH?

Yup, that may end up being the case!



Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5970 posts, RR: 14
Reply 24, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4771 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.

You're not looking hard enough. SKYW just issued its 73rd quarterly dividend in a row.

Quoting vio (Reply 23):
Yes. And I say that as a pilot flying in the arctic trying to climb my way the airline ladder.

And what about the place you're flying for. If places like that didn't exist, and no regionals existed? Then what? You can't CFI your way to stardom.



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently onlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1513 posts, RR: 3
Reply 25, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4945 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 23):
Someone with a better business model will come in and fill in the gap, even if it means reduced capacity and higher costs. I rather have 1000 pilots that get paid well, are properly rested and happy than 2000 poorly paid, overworked and stressed out pilots. Competition never hurt anyone, including us pilots trying to climb to the top. It makes us better.

Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlineMark2fly1034 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4878 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 7):
Also, how likely will it be that drone pilots are given credit for some of their hours?

Completely different skill set and orientation. A drone pilot might have a small head start on understanding some aspects of flying - but is completely lacking on others. It is apparently much easier to transition from a real pilot to a drone pilot than the other way around.

But it is easier to take some guy off the street and train them to fly a UAV then a pilot.


User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6787 posts, RR: 34
Reply 27, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4952 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
I think the law is there to improve safety, NOT to help out every kid that dreams to be a pilot.

I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety. Is there a magic hour threshhold a pilot gets that magically makes them "qualified"? And what are those qualifications? Do we equate hours with aptitude? Besides, by doing this you create a barrier to entry--or at the very least a significant disincentive for people to want to go into this line of work.

Quoting ADent (Reply 20):
If it gets really bad then airlines can start ab initio training.

That's probably something down the line, I would think. How to do it is another nightmare altogether though, especially in negotiating something like that with labor groups.

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
3. There are ways to built your time up. Those who really want to fly for the majors will work hard and eventually reach their goal.

Poof. You make it sound so easy! While the young pilots slog it out, struggle, barely making any money to pay back six figure loans just to one day get a chance to get to the right seat. You oversimplify the issue.


User currently offlinevio From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1401 posts, RR: 10
Reply 28, posted (8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4934 times:

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 24):
And what about the place you're flying for. If places like that didn't exist, and no regionals existed? Then what? You can't CFI your way to stardom.

Of course you can't CFI your way tot the top. Instructing time in Canada is okay to get your PIC time for your ATPL, but most airlines don't hire instructors without some multi-crew, multi engine turbine or small business jet time. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the US have the largest aviation industry in the world? So, where can they get the pilots?

1. U.S. Military (Air Force, Navy, Marines, Army, Coast Guard, etc). There are pilots there that fly some of the most advanced airplanes in the world; and you can't deny the fact that US military pilots are some of the best trained, most disciplined and intelligent men and women out there. (How's that for a Canadian praising the US armed forces?)

2. Corporate: Once again, the US has the largest corporate industry in the world. Lot of pilots flying anything from a Piper Navajo to a Citation X out there. Also part of this "Corporate" world you can add things like Air Ambulance, Police, etc.

3. Bush Flying in Alaska... Lots of small time operators there. Just like Northern Canada, I wouldn't put the "regionals" or the "mom and pa operators" in the same boat with regional guys like Great Lakes Aviation.

I fly Air Ambulance in the Arctic and our turboprops and jets are pretty nice machines. The environment we fly in is extremely challenging. Without sounding too cocky, I would say that Canadian Arctic pilots are some of the most experienced pilots in the world, both from a "stick and rudder" point of view as well as decision making skills. Our guys move up to fly with Air Canada Jazz, Westjet, Porter Airlines, Air Canada, Cathay, etc.

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):
Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

Some people will pay. Eventually the market will even itself out. Canada has some pretty high fares (and to some extent I don't like that), but there has to be a balance. You can't expect to fly from Denver to Salt Lake City for $50 dollars...



Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 29, posted (8 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 4826 times:

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):

I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety.

So we should have no minimum standards? Be a pilot with no experience required?

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
Do we equate hours with aptitude?

Generally yes. It's not a perfect correlation, but experience does make a difference. Look at it from a different field, who would you pick for your heart transplant surgery, the cardiologist who has done 1 successful transplant or the cardiologist who has done 100?

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
While the young pilots slog it out, struggle, barely making any money to pay back six figure loans just to one day get a chance to get to the right seat.

But if not enough pilots are making it down the pipeline, you don't think the airlines (some of whom are awash in cash, cough Delta cough) won't invest in training programs to get the pipeline opened up.


User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5970 posts, RR: 14
Reply 30, posted (8 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 4799 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
1. U.S. Military

Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
2. Corporate

For the GOOD corporate jobs, they'll want experience, and will just about always hire the previous part 121 guy. About the best thing you can do here with a fresh commercial is flying boxes around New Mexico in a Baron, but good luck finding those jobs; they're few and few between.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
3. Bush Flying in Alaska... Lots of small time operators there. Just like Northern Canada, I wouldn't put the "regionals" or the "mom and pa operators" in the same boat with regional guys like Great Lakes Aviation.

Huh? Great Lakes IS a ma-and-pa small-time regional. I think you mean ERA, but even they fall under the same defiinition.

Quoting vio (Reply 28):
I fly Air Ambulance in the Arctic and our turboprops and jets are pretty nice machines. The environment we fly in is extremely challenging. Without sounding too cocky, I would say that Canadian Arctic pilots are some of the most experienced pilots in the world, both from a "stick and rudder" point of view as well as decision making skills.

But what percentage of Canadian pilots DON'T fly around in the arctic? Are those "southies" not good or experience enough to move onto those same operations?



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlinevio From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1401 posts, RR: 10
Reply 31, posted (8 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 4515 times:

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Okay, so I guess, the question is: What is the forecast for pilots at the regional level and how many military guys will retire. Of course a guy flying an F-18 for the Navy will not want to fly as an F/O on the RJ for 18,000 a year. That's another issue.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
For the GOOD corporate jobs, they'll want experience, and will just about always hire the previous part 121 guy. About the best thing you can do here with a fresh commercial is flying boxes around New Mexico in a Baron, but good luck finding those jobs; they're few and few between.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. How does one get to fly a King Air 200 or a small biz-jet? Surely some operators require that they have a 2 crew plane. I saw King Air 100s in the US crewed by two pilots. I'm not talking about going direct entry captain on a Gulfstream V.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Huh? Great Lakes IS a ma-and-pa small-time regional. I think you mean ERA, but even they fall under the same defiinition.

I didn't know Great Lakes was a "mom & pa" operation. As per Wikipedia, they have a fleet of 38 airplanes. That's not exactly a small operator. I was referring to those companies that have one or two otters or some small Navajo. In my books Great Lakes Aviation is quite a large operator.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
But what percentage of Canadian pilots DON'T fly around in the arctic? Are those "southies" not good or experience enough to move onto those same operations?

I never said that...

What I meant was that a good number of 703, 704 operators (so not major airlines) fly in the North, not necessary the high arctic. For me "Northern Experience" is flying up in remote areas into strips that are less than ideal, uncontrolled airports and at best an NDB or RNAV approach, gravel runways, etc. Of course guys flying in the South are qualified, but entry level jobs are mostly found "in the North". There are guys flying in Southern Ontario such as Air Sprint, Sky Regional, etc. They're great to work for and gain valuable experience.



Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 32, posted (8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4462 times:

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
I get your point but the laws are arbitrary and have NOTHING to do with safety.

All safety laws are "arbitrary". "Safety" is a relative word. We all know that airline safety could be increased but economic interests inhibit it.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 29):
Generally yes. It's not a perfect correlation, but experience does make a difference. Look at it from a different field, who would you pick for your heart transplant surgery, the cardiologist who has done 1 successful transplant or the cardiologist who has done 100?

Far from any correlation.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Yup. The Air Force is now graduating more drone pilots than aircraft pilots.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 33, posted (8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4433 times:
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Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
Quoting vio (Reply 28):
1. U.S. Military

Not anywhere near enough to satiate demand.

Looking at the next few years demand, the US military should be able to meet the supply for the major for a few years. I know of a few military pilots who went reserve in order to pick up commercial hours so when the coming transition happens, they would be ready. These 'early birds' already have jobs at the majors (for some reason, a bunch at DL).

Quoting vio (Reply 31):
I saw King Air 100s in the US crewed by two pilots.

The US military hires a large number of King Air two pilot chase planes for the drones.

Quoting Mark2fly1034 (Reply 26):
But it is easier to take some guy off the street and train them to fly a UAV then a pilot.

No argument, but they do pick up valuable skills. Enough to qualify for some fraction of the 1,500 hours in my opinion. I've leaned over the shoulder of drone pilots and they are picking up 80% of what's needed in the cockpit. (Radio, ATC direction, avoiding other aircraft, handling emergencies which drones have far more of than a commercial plane, etc.) But I do not propose all drone hours count. Perhaps discount drone hours to 1/3rd of the time flown (or even 1/5th) and only allow those hours to count for up to 500 hours maximum.


In many ways, those drone pilots know where ATC is going...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 34, posted (8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4404 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The requirement is going to hurt passengers, hurt pilots (who pay for training) and hurt small communities.

All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 35, posted (8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4226 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 25):

Unfortunately the better business model is doing things on the cheap. Until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket they can, that isn't going to change. I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm wise enough to know that nothing is going to change the regional game until passengers stop buying the cheapest ticket and ALPA stops representing regional feed.

-DiamondFlyer

The reason I never buy this line of thinking is because most of the routes that are served by Regional Jets charge higher fares than routes that are served mainly by mainline planes. Basically Regional Jet passengers subsidize the cheap tickets that folks get at the mainline level, and instead themselves get a cheaper product.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 34):
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
God forbid that pilots should become a high demand career, and airlines actually have to compete for the best new pilots, and pay a living wage to entry level pilots.

The requirement is going to hurt passengers, hurt pilots (who pay for training) and hurt small communities.

All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.

Let me ask you this. Do you want the airlines to be able to hire the best and do you want the very best to pursue a career in aviation, or do you want the status quo where wages are so bad you can't attract the best people in this industry and end up with lower qualifications as a result?

Since 9-11 what happened was that the regional airlines needed more pilots but because of what they were paying, they could no longer attract people with the same qualifications they had. So instead of increasing pay to continue to attract the best pilots, they instead lowered their hiring standards just to rush bodies into seats, and new airlines were created so that all pilots would start at the bottom which allowed flying to be assigned very cheaply.

Here is the dilemma we run into. Everyone has wised up, which means that people are no longer going to shell out the money for flight training that they used to. The Military isnt producing as many pilots as they used to. The Major's are going to start hiring regional pilots like crazy in the next few years. The regionals are going to need to hire more pilots because of this and Part 117. They are getting concessions which means that they are less attractive as employers than they used to be. The number of pilots applying to the regionals is going to decrease. It is going to have a long term effect on the regional industry.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
The ability to pay hinges on financial viability. I can't recall a regional carrier that is making consistent investment grade profits.

This is more of a comment directed at our economic system in general, but one of the big problems with the economy is that our economy is all about lining the pocket of a few investors on Wall Street, where it should be oriented more to making sure that every american who is willing to work hard can have a job. Too often its all about making sure the shareholders are taken care of in this country, and I have a huge problem with that mentality. People like Carl Icahn and Warren Buffet who already have more money than they know what to do, unfortunately invest so much money in the stock market, than instead of their money going to helping other people, all it does is it helps them get more money from the rest of us. I hear the argument over and over on this site that companies do not exist for employees but to earn money for their shareholders. The way our economy is set up today that is true, but it creates so many other problems, and all you have to do is look at the airline industry to see what it has gotten us.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 36, posted (8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4246 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 32):
Far from any correlation.

There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours. I do not get why 1500 for pilot and copilot. I agree with more hours, but the new limit has no correlation.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 34):
All for a safety improvement that makes some sense, but offers no measurable safety benefit at all.

If anything, it would have made more sense to raise the co-pilot to 600 hours and the pilot to 2,000 hours. Or perhaps the pilot must have 2,000 hours if the copilot has less than a thousand? Heck, the 600 hours correlation would best be appropriate to a pilot coming out of the schools, so that is lowering 1,000 to 600.


Eh, this will effect the small airlines. I fly out of LAX. In no way will there be enough of a pilot shortage to significantly effect me. But I feel for the small communities. I have friends who are in the merchant marine. If their local airport loses 'international' status, their union rules force them to move if the international airport is more than 2 hours away. Which might explain who one friend paid about 5% more when chosing between to homes (it was ten minutes closer to a large international airport, but it usually means a ten minute added drive to the little airport).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8942 posts, RR: 40
Reply 37, posted (8 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4125 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 3):
The solution to the cost for training issue is that the airlines might actually have to invest in training for their best candidates.

This 1,500 hour rule essentially destroys any chance of a cadet-style program in the US.



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 38, posted (8 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4017 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Let me ask you this. Do you want the airlines to be able to hire the best and do you want the very best to pursue a career in aviation,

Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join? I see how incumbent pilots can gain. So that's who lobbied for the rule, and they won.

Will newcomer pilots benefit? Does a higher barrier make piloting a more attractive career to a kid? That's actually a tricky question, because they have to pay (in years or financially) to get over that barrier. The incumbent pilots don't, so this is gravy to them.

Overall it's not a huge issue but it strikes me as unnecessary friction in the job market, whose purpose is unclear.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 39, posted (8 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3900 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Everyone has wised up, which means that people are no longer going to shell out the money for flight training that they used to.

Not that I don't disagree but I think that there is a cultural shift that has happened. There simply are fewer people interested in becoming a pilot for a variety of reasons. AOPA has been working hard to reverse the falling pilot population trend. While flying costs are certainly a significant factor, it far from being the only factor.

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
The Major's are going to start hiring regional pilots like crazy in the next few years.

It depends, really. I think that a few things may mitigate that. I think that there could be some more consolidation in the industry. Also, there is the trend towards upgauging and fleet rationalization/renewal. I also think that we will probably enter another serious recession once QE is halted... and that is a major, major wildcard!!! It can't be overstated enough.

Quoting apodino (Reply 35):
Too often its all about making sure the shareholders are taken care of in this country, and I have a huge problem with that mentality.

Again, not in disagreement but I think that it is the industry that is at the front of the line. If you actually take a look at the money split between shareholders and the firms on "Wall Street" you would be shocked. It is legalized "Nigeria Letter Scams."

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 36):
There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours.

The dynamics between a heart surgeon and a pilot are vastly different.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join?

The best of what? The reduced population % of people that would today consider a pilot career?



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 40, posted (8 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3878 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):

Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join? I see how incumbent pilots can gain. So that's who lobbied for the rule, and they won.

Will newcomer pilots benefit? Does a higher barrier make piloting a more attractive career to a kid? That's actually a tricky question, because they have to pay (in years or financially) to get over that barrier. The incumbent pilots don't, so this is gravy to them.

Overall it's not a huge issue but it strikes me as unnecessary friction in the job market, whose purpose is unclear.

Right now the barrier is very costly as it is. And I do agree with what you are saying. Here is the thing though. The way the industry is structured makes it hard for loans to be paid off because of what has happened to the regional airlines. With regional airlines becoming careers for a lot of guys, it makes it that much harder for guys to upgrade. And if upgrade times are going to be what they have been in the past few years, (over 5 years at most regionals), and these scales are getting capped at 4 years, that makes it very hard indeed. Thus not only do you have a harder barrier to break through, but there is really no reward for a while for doing so. Thus the short term is that you don't attract the best candidates. And you don't attract a lot of candidates period. The way regionals got around this in the past was to lower their standards. They can't do that anymore. The only way the situation rights itself is for pay to be improved. How much will it take to make this an attractive field again? That I cannot answer. But it was clear even before the new regs came out that regionals were having a harder time filling classes, because people finally realize that the return on investment is very poor in this profession. Now that the new regs are out, this gets even worse.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 41, posted (8 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3804 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 39):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 36):
There is a correlation with pilot safety up to 600 flight hours.

The dynamics between a heart surgeon and a pilot are vastly different.

Yes and no. A surgeon has far fewer errors after 400 operations. I just had a cousin complete about 2000 operations in India (500 of 4 types), in order to have sufficient experience to operate in the litigious US environment. If the insurance companies require a number of operations, there is a correlation. This was for an eye surgeon.

My two heart surgeon cousins also had to go to India to pick up enough experience before they could operate in the USA.

Yes, I have a LOT of cousins.  

But the dynamics are the same. The old phrase 'it takes ten thousand hours to become an expert' holds true to a limited degree. But there are many uncounted hours of prior experience that help with any profession.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineJHwk From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (8 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3736 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
Does a higher, more costly barrier invite "the best" to join?

No, it encourages people with the lowest cost of capital to pursue it.

Being a pilot will eventually be a lot like being an indentured servant.


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4234 posts, RR: 6
Reply 43, posted (8 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3716 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 39):
It depends, really. I think that a few things may mitigate that. I think that there could be some more consolidation in the industry. Also, there is the trend towards upgauging and fleet rationalization/renewal. I also think that we will probably enter another serious recession once QE is halted... and that is a major, major wildcard!!! It can't be overstated enough.

  

Very good point, and it is a situation I really fear happening, and the Fed set us all up for it. I don't know what is going to happen to the industry if this happens, and I actually think the regionals could get hit big time if this were to happen.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 44, posted (8 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3620 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
But the dynamics are the same. The old phrase 'it takes ten thousand hours to become an expert' holds true to a limited degree. But there are many uncounted hours of prior experience that help with any profession.

You have a BIG extended family... and talented, too.

I agree with the "practice makes perfect" logic... it applies to everything - from golf swings to hoops shots. What I don't agree with is relating the professions.

Quoting apodino (Reply 43):
I don't know what is going to happen to the industry if this happens, and I actually think the regionals could get hit big time if this were to happen.

Not a pleasant thought... but it isn't "if" but when there is going to be some significant carnage. We got a slight foretaste of how economies would react when the Fed just hinted over the summer at taking the foot off of QE.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 45, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3560 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 40):
The only way the situation rights itself is for pay to be improved.

Agree 100% with that. There is room for that, if the pool dries up.


User currently offlineatpcliff From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (8 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 3557 times:

Asia is hurting for pilots, bad. Chinese and now an Indian carrier have opened US (and other non-native) pilot bases.

The growth of aviation in Asia is continuing unabated...and someone will need to fly those thousands of planes....and the same time that the US retirements move into high gear.



TRY. It's all you have control over, and it's what God wants.
User currently offlineikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21476 posts, RR: 60
Reply 47, posted (8 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 3509 times:

The more regulation the more it favors big companies. Despite what some argue, big business loves big government because they know that it makes it very difficult for small players to enter the market and comply with all the regulations. Compliance is expensive but becomes a larger and large part of you costs the smaller you are. Heavy regulation favors the large airline, the chain restaurant, the big house building company, the supermarket and big box store. Ultimately, it harms the consumer.

It's a sort of Laffer curve of regulation. Too little and too much both hurt the consumer.

In this case, smaller airlines have trouble competing for the more limited talent pool made available by stricter regulation.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 48, posted (8 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 3404 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):

So far, the only airline I know that has been significantly impacted is Great lakes:
http://www.eturbonews.com/39572/airl...on-act-caused-disruption-air-servi

Now, I'm sure other low paying airlines will feel some pain. In particular once their pilots are in more demand. The real impact will be at the airports small airlines fly to:

I ended up looking up the city on the web and I honestly fail to see why tax payers should subsidize the city. They are about a 2.5 hr drive from Denver (or just over 1 hr to Cheyenne). Plus, as the 7th most obese city in the country they are probably weight limited on many flights.  



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3730 posts, RR: 9
Reply 49, posted (8 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3318 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 29):
So we should have no minimum standards? Be a pilot with no experience required?

There should be minimum standards. Just not a magic number seemingly pulled out of the air by the geniuses on Capitol Hill without first putting laws in place to counter the most glaring factors in the Colgan crash (fatigue and horrendous stall recovery techniques). (I'm aware that there were moves made to fix both, but not until the original ATP Law was drawn up.)

1,500 seems like so much of a kneejerk reaction put in place to ease the fears of John Q. Public instead of actually "getting something done". Would Colgan 3407's crew still have had their jobs in January of 2009 had the law been in place?

How many regional flights/operations in a 121 environment have taken place since low-time hiring really took off in the mid-2000s with a sub-1500 pilot up front? Of those, how many resulted in fatalities? The only one I can find was the Pinnacle ferry crash where the crew wanted to join "The 4-1-0 Club" and killed the engines. Quality over Quantity.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
Yes and no. A surgeon has far fewer errors after 400 operations. I just had a cousin complete about 2000 operations in India (500 of 4 types), in order to have sufficient experience to operate in the litigious US environment. If the insurance companies require a number of operations, there is a correlation. This was for an eye surgeon.

By meeting the experience requirements, is one immune from error in surgery for the rest of their career?   That type of logic (not on your part, lightsaber, but on the government's) in thinking 1,499.9=Harrison Ford saying "GET OFF MY PLANE", but 1,500.0 means "Congratulations, we feel you are now sufficiently experienced!" got us into this situation.



Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 50, posted (8 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3161 times:

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 49):
Just not a magic number seemingly pulled out of the air by the geniuses on Capitol Hill

So then what should the number be? I've heard lots of people complain that 1,500 is arbitrary, but no one seems to have a better number. Isn't any number arbitrary? Is 250 any better than 249?


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 51, posted (8 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3085 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 44):
You have a BIG extended family... and talented, too.

   And we're still breeding!  
Quoting planemaker (Reply 44):
I agree with the "practice makes perfect" logic... it applies to everything - from golf swings to hoops shots. What I don't agree with is relating the professions.

Fair enough. What matters is how one gets the experience. But like surgeons, we're now sending our talent oversees to gain experience (e.g., Lion Air was notorious for copilots paying to gain hours).

Quoting planemaker (Reply 48):
I ended up looking up the city on the web and I honestly fail to see why tax payers should subsidize the city. They are about a 2.5 hr drive from Denver (or just over 1 hr to Cheyenne). Plus, as the 7th most obese city in the country they are probably weight limited on many flights.

I fail to see why many of the subsidies make any sense, excluding airports that serve military installations. Obesity just means the airlines should charge self loading cargo by the pound.     
Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 49):
By meeting the experience requirements, is one immune from error in surgery for the rest of their career?

No, but the statistical change of a bad eye surgeon making it past 400 operations (of one type, beyond the initial surgeon training) is very low. Unfortunately, to have a fair benchmark, there must be hours. I read quite a bit of history and found that during WW2, there was a direct correlation with flight hours and piloting skills up to 600 hours. In that scenario, by putting pilots into the high horsepower aircraft later (and aircraft increased in difficulty to fly as the war progressed, that is the nature of 'high performance aircraft'). Post war, the performance of every Air Force was compared and there was found to be less variation in performance due to the syllabus of the flight training program than the flight hours. Note: All Air Forces did more classroom time than flight time, so the assumption is there is a classroom component getting that 600 hours.

But how does one get the experience? I find 1,500 hours for the pilot/captain quite reasonable and I wouldn't propose lowering that a minute. But I also believe 1,500 hours for the copilot is wasteful and serves no purpose. I would lower the threshold to 600 hours for those with a degree and 1,000 hours for those without.

But none of this would have prevented the crash that the hour rule was inspired by...    Some fine tuning seems wise. What they did is too much.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3730 posts, RR: 9
Reply 52, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2957 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 50):
So then what should the number be? I've heard lots of people complain that 1,500 is arbitrary, but no one seems to have a better number. Isn't any number arbitrary? Is 250 any better than 249?

I like this logic:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 51):
But how does one get the experience? I find 1,500 hours for the pilot/captain quite reasonable and I wouldn't propose lowering that a minute. But I also believe 1,500 hours for the copilot is wasteful and serves no purpose. I would lower the threshold to 600 hours for those with a degree and 1,000 hours for those without.

Cut it to 500-750, with some fluctuation based upon demand. The student completes their private, instrument, commercial single and multi, and then goes to "pay their dues" as an instructor or taking a banner towing/cargo/135/aerial photography, etc. job. If one gets to 500 and wants more time as an instructor, so be it. (My first instrument instructor enjoyed her job so much that she was considering making an extended career out of it.) I've talked to a number of people who feel 1,200 hours (after training ends) of touch-and-goes, stalls, and steep turns is a joke.

The government's degree flight time credit means well, but is a bit of a joke, too. As I understand it, you have to go to the school AND complete at least instrument and commercial training there. So, for somebody like me, who did ERAU-Worldwide and flew at a local FBO to get private and instrument (as so many people used to think was acceptable), it's still 1,500. It was literally "Here, here's a bone, now shut up and go along with our rule" to universities.



Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2053 posts, RR: 1
Reply 53, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2772 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 50):
So then what should the number be? I've heard lots of people complain that 1,500 is arbitrary, but no one seems to have a better number. Isn't any number arbitrary? Is 250 any better than 249?

Congress addressed the issue in the incorrect way. First of all, this was in response to the Colgan crash and both of those pilots more than met the new minimums. Much like the OZ crash in SFO, the issue was with a captain that was new to the type. Personally, I think they should have required more time in type before you can serve as a captain whenever possible. Obviously, that isn't always possible in every case, something else would need to be done in those situations. Perhaps significantly increased minimum training time.

I don't think the minimum for FOs should have been increased above 500, possibly with a 2500 minimum to upgrade to the left seat in addition to a significant minimum time in type before upgrading to the left seat. Something like 50-100 hours as a first officer.


User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 54, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2726 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 51):
I would lower the threshold to 600 hours for those with a degree and 1,000 hours for those without.

How are these numbers any less arbitrary? I've flown with university grads who have no business flying the general public around and FBO guys with no degree that were excellent sticks and even better decision makers. The carve out for universities has zero to do with the quality of the individual and everything to do with them being able to draw students in.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 52):
I've talked to a number of people who feel 1,200 hours (after training ends) of touch-and-goes, stalls, and steep turns is a joke.

That is their fault. I taught for a couple thousand hours and I learned from start to finish. Hours are what you make of them. Those that whine about having to fill the time are not using the time as wisely as they could.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 53):
Personally, I think they should have required more time in type before you can serve as a captain whenever possible.

Literally thousands of pilots have upgraded into an aircraft they have previously never flown without issue.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 55, posted (8 months 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2556 times:

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 54):
How are these numbers any less arbitrary? I've flown with university grads who have no business flying the general public around and FBO guys with no degree that were excellent sticks and even better decision makers. The carve out for universities has zero to do with the quality of the individual and everything to do with them being able to draw students in.

Not many people talk about the "raw" qualities of a pilot... as though they are all at the same level when, in reality, there is a wide range. You can have marvelous stick skills but poor decision making skills... and vice versa, for example, and everything in between.

As the old refrain goes, 99.9% of flying is "boring holes" through the skies. IMHO, there should be an disproportionate skew of hours towards training (and testing) for emergencies and decision making skills under pressure rather than accumulating hours and hours of x-country flying.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 56, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 2507 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 53):
Congress addressed the issue in the incorrect way. First of all, this was in response to the Colgan crash and both of those pilots more than met the new minimums. Much like the OZ crash in SFO, the issue was with a captain that was new to the type.

The issue isn't whether they had the hours at the time of the crash but that they were low time when originally hired. Part 121 isn't the place to learn basic flying skills. You are supposed to come in having all of that knowledge and the old 250 hour minimums simply weren't cutting it. The Asiana crash is a perfect example of this. Those guys had thousands and thousands of hours in jets BUT they were low time new hires. They never properly learned how to shoot a visual approach. Asiana wants to blame that on the auto-throttles in the 777, but that wasn't the cause. It was the pilots lack of basic airmanship and shooting a visual approach while doing a simple instrument scan. Any pilot worth his salt should be able to accomplish a visual approach with nothing more then a window and an airspeed indicator.

I've seen suggested on here that low time pilots can just be paired with high time Captains. That isn't the solution either because the Captain has a lot of responsibility over the course of the flight and one of them shouldn't be baby-sitting or instructing the FO in basic airmanship. Those skills must be well established by the time pilots hit the line. An airline is not a flight school and I don't think passengers want it to be.

What Captains can teach their FOs is some airline related decision making skills. However a lot of these skills can be learned flight instructing or doing single pilot operations.

Having worked in cockpits for awhile I think it is scary how much over reliance (and a push by manufacturers and the armchair experts for it) on automation. They are simply tools, but more and more they are used as crutches. What happens when all those fancy avionics break or don't work as advertised or do something the crew doesn't expect (e.g. Asiana)? Then you are dead in the water with a crew that doesn't know what to do and doesn't have the basic airmanship skills to fall back on.


The solution to the "shortage" is really simple. Raise pay, and it doesn't have to be raised to a level that will bankrupt airlines. Doubling starting pay would add next to nothing to the cost of an airline ticket. You are talking about going from $20-$25 per flight hour to $40-50 per flight hour. Now spread that extra $20-25 across 50-76 passengers for a typical 2 hour regional flight. Yeah that's going to totally bankrupt the airlines!  

Regional carriers could even add a contract service length of several years in order to recoup their investment.


What will significantly hurt regional airlines is the last minute rush to drive down wages as far as possible. The current path is going to cause the entire regional system to collapse and that will hurt passengers and airlines alike in the form of reduced service, higher ticket prices, and less feed for flights.


User currently onlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1513 posts, RR: 3
Reply 57, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2459 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
Regional carriers could even add a contract service length of several years in order to recoup their investment.

Yes, because training contracts are exactly what need to happen (sarcasm). Training contracts are a sign of a crappy place to work and the company knows it. They put the contract in place to force people to stay at a miserable place.

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 58, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2427 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 57):
Yes, because training contracts are exactly what need to happen (sarcasm). Training contracts are a sign of a crappy place to work and the company knows it. They put the contract in place to force people to stay at a miserable place.

Training contracts already exist for the signing bonuses. 2 years would likely have to be given at most regionals before upgrade is possible anyways.

What should really happen is a mainline seniority number (not a flow or a preferential interview) is given to the pilot the day they start at a regional. The first regional to get this will have no problem staffing their ranks.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 59, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2414 times:
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Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 52):
Cut it to 500-750, with some fluctuation based upon demand.

I would have a difference on classroom time. Since you're proposing my low hours +/- 150, I seems we are otherwise agreed.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 52):
The government's degree flight time credit means well, but is a bit of a joke, too. As I understand it, you have to go to the school AND complete at least instrument and commercial training there. So, for somebody like me, who did ERAU-Worldwide and flew at a local FBO to get private and instrument (as so many people used to think was acceptable), it's still 1,500

I didn't know that. I do not think where the flight training happens matters. But the classroom time definitely makes for a better pilot. That was proven by the airforces that cut pilot classroom time (before cutting flight time) in WW2. There were examples of both and those that had the same flight hours performed worse if they had their classroom theory cut.

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 54):
How are these numbers any less arbitrary?

1. The 600 is based on classroom and flying statistics from WW2 pilots. If you have better numbers, I'll use them.
2. I've found theory important. My current doesn't place as much value on schooling as my prior employer which means correcting processes often doesn't happen. Some things are only learned in a classroom prior to job hire when the student is 'more motivated' to learn.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 53):
Congress addressed the issue in the incorrect way. First of all, this was in response to the Colgan crash and both of those pilots more than met the new minimums.

   But some of what they did I agree with. e.g., more stick and rudder before carrying passengers. For when flying with a cabin full of people, there isn't any room to deviate which means one isn't learning certain skills.

Again, I would like 600 hours of flight time with a degree or 1,000 hours of flight time (no degree). I strongly believe the classroom time covering theory that leads to the degree is of high value. In particular when going to next generation aircraft (e.g., BWBs).

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
Doubling starting pay would add next to nothing to the cost of an airline ticket.

What size aircraft? The regional jets aren't going to have trouble filling seats (or at least haven't felt the pain yet). It will be great lakes and other fliers of smaller aircraft were the ticket price would have to reflect immediately the pay increase.

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
Having worked in cockpits for awhile I think it is scary how much over reliance (and a push by manufacturers and the armchair experts for it) on automation.

The technology is pushed by multi-billion dollar lawsuits. Think of how much Software Boeing must update because of the OZ crash at SFO.

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
Regional carriers could even add a contract service length of several years in order to recoup their investment.

Is this allowed under the Railway labor Act? I believe that would qualify as a 'clawback' and clawbacks are only allowed for bonus pay related to performance metrics in a given 12 month period where the performance targets were found not to be met after the bonus was paid. What you propose is greater than 12 months. Now, it would be perfectly legal to put a 24 month clawback on a signing bonus (signing bonus comes under different rules, but 24 months is the limit). It is pretty much impossible to inforce a clawback after 24 months on anyone but an 'high compensated officer of the company,' and even then it would be impossible to dock the base pay and instead on bonus pay may be clawed back. Otherwise, the pilot is a free person to pursue their next employer within reasonable notice times (14 days or prior two weeks pay may be clawbacked and some industries allow for 30 days, but I do not know the NRLA rules for this).

The NRWLA prohibits an employee taking on debt to the company for training (broke the 'company store' policies, a good thing). Is is that the governing labor law? Either way, there is no 'paying back the employer' by keeping the pilot around.

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
An airline is not a flight school and I don't think passengers want it to be.

Agreed, but 1,500 hours (or 1,000 with school) is too much.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 55):
IMHO, there should be an disproportionate skew of hours towards training (and testing) for emergencies and decision making skills under pressure rather than accumulating hours and hours of x-country flying.

Agreed. I propose increasing the required simulator time per year for *all* pilots. For in some people those skills age quickly.


Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2053 posts, RR: 1
Reply 60, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2418 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
The issue isn't whether they had the hours at the time of the crash but that they were low time when originally hired. Part 121 isn't the place to learn basic flying skills. You are supposed to come in having all of that knowledge and the old 250 hour minimums simply weren't cutting it.

I have flown with a lot of 250 hour guys that had excellent basic flying skills. In fact, the vast majority of them were better with basic flying skills than the guys that have been with us ten years or more. The FAA has cited the reliance upon automation for reducing those skills on guys over the course of their careers as an issue. Those basic flying skills appear to degrade over time when not used regularly.

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
The solution to the "shortage" is really simple. Raise pay, and it doesn't have to be raised to a level that will bankrupt airlines. Doubling starting pay would add next to nothing to the cost of an airline ticket.

Raising the pay doesn't address the excessive debt that most pilot candidates face. Limiting pilot opportunities to those with wealthy families is not in the best interest of the flying public.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 61, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2234 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 56):
Having worked in cockpits for awhile I think it is scary how much over reliance (and a push by manufacturers and the armchair experts for it) on automation. They are simply tools, but more and more they are used as crutches.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 59):
The technology is pushed by multi-billion dollar lawsuits. Think of how much Software Boeing must update because of the OZ crash at SFO.

We are in a technological valley because of legacy systems but by 2020 we will be very much beyond them. "Avionics" will be much more than "simply tools"... "avionics" will "know". Watch this video: IBM Watson: The Rise Of Cognitive Computing

Lightsaber, you might get a chuckle out of this since you have a few doctors in your clan... with Deep Blue having defeated Kasporov, and Watson winning Jeopardy!, IBM has set as their next challenge for Watson to pass the MLE.  



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 62, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2213 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 60):
I have flown with a lot of 250 hour guys that had excellent basic flying skills. In fact, the vast majority of them were better with basic flying skills than the guys that have been with us ten years or more

Not my experience, I've seen a lot of very sketchy cross wind landings, constantly behind the plane, wanting to fly questionably close to thunderstorms, forgetting factors like wet or contaminated runways. etc.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 61):
We are in a technological valley because of legacy systems but by 2020 we will be very much beyond them. "Avionics" will be much more than "simply tools"... "avionics" will "know". Watch this video

Computers still malfunction and the more complicated they become the more complicated the failures are and the harder it is to get out of them. Some of the "legacy" systems were the easiest and quickest things to fix. I'm not saying it won't happen someday, I just think 6 years is very optimistic for the type of avionics and computing power in aircraft you are talking about.

There are a ton of unknown, unknowns not to mention costs.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 63, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2188 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 62):
I'm not saying it won't happen someday, I just think 6 years is very optimistic for the type of avionics and computing power in aircraft you are talking about.

Watson is already proof that 6 years is actually being very conservative.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 64, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2188 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 17):
I think the law is there to improve safety

Well, I'm doubtful that it'll do that.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 21):
And flying an airliner is increasingly "pretty much the same thing".

Not in the least.

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 57):
Yes, because training contracts are exactly what need to happen (sarcasm). Training contracts are a sign of a crappy place to work and the company knows it. They put the contract in place to force people to stay at a miserable place.

Not necessarily. A lot of good corporate jobs have a training contract of a year or so in order to give some protection for their investment. The European carriers that do ab-initio training have training contracts for the same reason. Hell, the military basically has a training contract, and nobody sees a problem with that. Nothing wrong with a training contract attached to a good job with a good salary. The problem comes when the training contract is attached to a job with a bad salary. Republic reportedly has a training contract, and they're still paying out peanuts. That's a problem.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 65, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2185 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 59):
What size aircraft? The regional jets aren't going to have trouble filling seats (or at least haven't felt the pain yet). It will be great lakes and other fliers of smaller aircraft were the ticket price would have to reflect immediately the pay increase.

They already are. Classes at more than one regional airline are showing up with no-shows and several companies are back to offering several thousand dollars in signing bonuses.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 59):
Is this allowed under the Railway labor Act?

Companies have tried to pursue pilots who left within the specified time frame but to my knowledge none have successfully recouped the money. As far as the legality under the RLA I'm not certain, I would be interested to find out as well.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 59):
Agreed, but 1,500 hours (or 1,000 with school) is too much.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 59):
1. The 600 is based on classroom and flying statistics from WW2 pilots. If you have better numbers, I'll use them.

Your best argument is offering up data over half a century old against people who do this for a living? I'm not buying that one. My data is based on the fact that the Colgan crash, and crashes before it at the regional level occurred with pilots who were hired with low time at the controls. I understand that correlation is not necessarily causation but there is certainly a link here.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 60):
Raising the pay doesn't address the excessive debt that most pilot candidates face. Limiting pilot opportunities to those with wealthy families is not in the best interest of the flying public.

This has zero effect on the cost of training. You don't have to go pay for all 1500hrs of flying, if you get your commercial and/or CFI you are marketable and have opened up opportunities to make money and build flying time. Raising pay at the regional level will attract more candidates and allow those candidates to help pay off some of the debt they incurred while training, however.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 66, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2165 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 64):
Not in the least.

It is indeed increasingly "pretty much the same thing".



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 67, posted (8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2167 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 66):
It is indeed increasingly "pretty much the same thing".

Again, no it isn't. I used to play Flight Simulator a lot, I fly now, and I can tell you that the two are very different, even when things aren't going wrong.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 68, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2147 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 67):
Again, no it isn't. I used to play Flight Simulator a lot, I fly now, and I can tell you that the two are very different, even when things aren't going wrong.

Yes, you may have use to fly Flight Simulator. What is now available, especially from X-Plane, is indeed increasingly similar. More importantly, as aircraft automation continues to increase the distinction between the two will increasingly blur.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 69, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2098 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 68):
Yes, you may have use to fly Flight Simulator. What is now available, especially from X-Plane, is indeed increasingly similar.

Funny, because I used X-Plane as well, and it's just not as good of a training tool as Flight Simulator. Yes, the flight models are better, but that's irrelevant because the flight model is one of the least valuable parts of a desktop simulator when it comes to the actual flight experience. I don't care how good your flight model is, you cannot have the sensation of actually flying an airplane without either being in that airplane or using a full-motion simulator with proper control loading, visuals, etc.

The real benefit of a desktop simulator is in avionics training, instrument procedures training, and in simulating the general flight environment (scenery, traffic, weather, etc.), and Flight Simulator is worlds better than X-Plane for all of those tasks.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 70, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2094 times:
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Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 65):
They already are. Classes at more than one regional airline are showing up with no-shows and several companies are back to offering several thousand dollars in signing bonuses.

But is it effecting flight schedule? We've been in a down economy for so long we've forgotten 'no shows' are a normal part of the business. What fraction of the pilots? A few thousand in hiring bonus isn't much *and* subject to clawback for 24 months too. Have the pilots broken $50k/year in their first year? If not, its just a small adjustment. Everything I've read about the regionals is that they are returning to their 'normal' pilot market.

My *entire* time I've been on a.net there has been an impending pilot shortage. I'm still waiting for it to happen. This is supposed to be an 'acute' shortage. With all the majors looking to cut the quantity of RJ pilots due to the upgauging to 86 seats, I think they'll have no trouble weathering the storm.

It will be tiny airlines like Great Lakes that have the issues (which is already happening).

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 65):
Companies have tried to pursue pilots who left within the specified time frame but to my knowledge none have successfully recouped the money. As far as the legality under the RLA I'm not certain, I would be interested to find out as well.

The rules on clawbacks are specific to protect workers. It has to be a bonus to recoup the money.

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 65):
Your best argument is offering up data over half a century old against people who do this for a living? I'm not buying that one.

It takes numbers to have statistics. If you have better numbers, we'll talk. People who do this for a living have a natural bias. The same is true in my industry. Hence why six-sigma, if done right, improves a company tremendously. I've seen next gen ATC, things will get better.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 68):
What is now available, especially from X-Plane, is indeed increasingly similar.

   I'm amazed with what can be done with X-plane. It is now possible, with the right weather and other models, so simulate an aircraft's real flying performance almost perfectly. (assuming one has the right models for control surface separation and such). For the heavy UAVs, which are harder to fly than a fighter if the computer fails (there is a 'radio controlled mode'), the UAV pilots cannot tell if they're flying a simulation or the real aircraft! In any weather! As you note, with increasing automation, the difference will be very blurred.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 71, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2089 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 69):
Funny, because I used X-Plane as well, and it's just not as good of a training tool as Flight Simulator.

Yes, again, you use to use. X-Plane is FAA certified to be able to used as a flight simulator... MS Flight never was, nor could.

The important and obvious point is...

Quoting planemaker (Reply 68):
More importantly, as aircraft automation continues to increase the distinction between the two will increasingly blur.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 72, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2081 times:
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I decided to troll a pilot forum to see how tight the pilot supply is right now. The answer was plenty of unemployed pilots.  
When the 'pay to fly' copilot programs go away, we'll know we have a shortage.

What I found interesting is the supposidly 'short of pilots' airline Great Lakes was listed as not hiring. What am I missing?



This recent link still have 4,000 unemployed pilots in India, but if you count pilots working desk jobs, I believe the 6,000 is still current. I found older links with 8,000 unemployed in Europe. Is that correct or out of date?
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...d-pilots-commercial-pilot-licences

The Baltic Academy (LH's academy) trains 2,000 pilots per year.
Dubai is training 1,300 per year
http://gulfbusiness.com/2013/11/the-...lobal-pilot-shortage/#.UoUpCBqkq0g

I live next to a flight training center and the pilots are complaining about the lack of jobs, not the surplus of available offers.

Out of curiosity, how many US pilots work in India? I've heard numbers around a thousand, but is that accurate? There are thousands of US pilots out there who would love to return to a US flying job. There jobs will take years to fill with the European, Indian, and other shortages.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 73, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2061 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 71):
X-Plane is FAA certified to be able to used as a flight simulator...

But the time spent doing so doesn't count in any meaningful way. Which is what my point about drones was - there's no comparison between sitting at a desk flying a drone and sitting at a desk flying a simulator. There's some value procedures-wise in it, but when it comes to the actual skill of being able to fly an airplane (something that has clearly been deteriorating among pilots), it really is completely different.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 71):
The important and obvious point is...

Quoting planemaker (Reply 68):
More importantly, as aircraft automation continues to increase the distinction between the two will increasingly blur.

If recent accidents have taught us anything, it's that we need less reliance on automation, not more.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 74, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2050 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 73):
But the time spent doing so doesn't count in any meaningful way.

It does indeed. In fact, it is harder to "fly" a Piper Cub than a 787... simply because on the 787 you can go from take-off to landing without having to touch the controls whereas on the Piper Cub there (typically) are no buttons you can push to do the flying. You don't "need" stick and rudder skills to actually fly modern transports (and recently a grandmother showed that even without experience you can still land a light twin in an emergency).  
Quoting Mir (Reply 73):
If recent accidents have taught us anything, it's that we need less reliance on automation, not more.

What is has taught us is that we are in the "technology valley" that I mentioned previously... and also that humans are prone to mistakes even if they have 1,000's of hours of experience. Automation is obviously only going to increase dramatically to the point that every aircraft will have an "Aviation Watson."



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2053 posts, RR: 1
Reply 75, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 2019 times:

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 65):
You don't have to go pay for all 1500hrs of flying, if you get your commercial and/or CFI you are marketable and have opened up opportunities to make money and build flying time.

Those "opportunities" are not nearly as plentiful as some people claim.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 72):
I live next to a flight training center and the pilots are complaining about the lack of jobs, not the surplus of available offers.

How many of those guys meet all the requirements for a job at a regional? I know of several regionals that are offering bonuses for sending pilots their way and I could use the cash.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 76, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1937 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 74):
In fact, it is harder to "fly" a Piper Cub than a 787

It is certainly not. There are simple and forgivable aerodynamics and simple systems. The 787 has complex systems and the aerodynamics of a high-performance large airliner - not necessarily unforgiving, but not as forgiving as the Cub's. That's a whole lot more to keep track of, a much wider range of energy states to be aware of and manage, and whole lot more contingencies to be prepared for. And a whole lot more automation to manage. All that amounts to bigger demands on your situational awareness, above and beyond the actual task of manipulating the controls.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 74):
You don't "need" stick and rudder skills to actually fly modern transports

Oh yes you do. Because automation screws up. I had an autopilot try to stall the airplane on me once for no reason whatsoever. I've had autopilots decide they're not interested in working anymore and hand the plane back to me, also for no reason. And there are turns to be made and altitudes to level off at, and timing means those have to be done before I can figure out why the autopilot decided to malfunction, correct the problem, and reconnect the autopilot.

Until you can fly a normal flight from takeoff to touchdown without using the autopilot, you're not truly qualified to fly an airplane. Because you might actually have to do that. And that's true whether it's a Cub or a 787. And you don't get to that level of proficiency without good stick and rudder skills.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 77, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1863 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 76):
It is certainly not.

It certainly is because modern transports can take off and land without having to touch the controls... you simply can't do that with a Cub.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 78, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1764 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
It certainly is because modern transports can take off and land without having to touch the controls... you simply can't do that with a Cub.

And thanks to the testing being done for UAV tankers and UAV transports in commercial airspace, much more will happen in the future. But there is some time there.

Quoting Mir (Reply 76):
Oh yes you do. Because automation screws up.

I served a decade in flight test. What is being proven now is *far* superior to the 1980s level technology in service. Recall the 777 flies on Intel 486 processors with Motorola 60040s as back-up and some ancient AMD Risk processor as the third level. Those airplanes are so slow.

Now, the most comon next processor is the PowerPC 74XX family. Come on! Those are circa 2000 chips! But the last 'high power' chips designed for a low cooling environment. Thanks to smart phones, we now have new high performance chips below 5W. The plane has to fly if cabin pressure is lost, so that means large passive heat sinks that aren't very effective due to the low ambient pressure. But now that we have 2.3GHz octacores... we can do something.

And I know of a business jet being so equipped. The plane will have a pilot at the pilot and copilot's seat, but will fly in US airspace as if it was flying on its own. IIRC, its a converted HAWKER; converted to full autonomous control for the UCAS program but now 'released' for other duties. This is but an upgrade of the cameras and computer systems.

No human pilot an match the camera vision of the latest Curtis Wright cameras. And Northrop has the software for the other stuff... For one will have 360 degree vision in visual and then a 2nd set of cameras in IR (but not 360 degree) and a third set in UV (again, only select directions). Each connected to their own computers that each have dedicated backup power supplies. The idea is to have a system that wouldn't ever have that E-135 head on collision. *Ever!* Pilots simply cannot see out as far as the computers nor process as much information.

Plus the computers have the added layer of plugging into 'the net' and can know the destination, current location/vector/altitude, and intended flight path of every aircraft that is broadcasting in their airspace and have dedicated processors seeking out potential conflicts and resolving them. (Its too much information for a human.)

And yes, we used to joke we worked on Skynet. Why do you ask?  
Quoting Mir (Reply 76):
It is certainly not.

I'm with Planemaker on this one. If you tug out a 787 to the runway, its pretty much ready to fly itself to the destination. Once that plane has proven itself, there will be far less 'busywork' to manage. And that plane, IIRC, is only on PowerPC 74XX processors at reduced clock rates (to be uber conservative).

The public isn't ready to fly without pilots. But we're at the point the computer should be the copilot. But I'm talking in the *next* generation of aircraft. Pilots just do not see in 3 spectrum and aren't capable of processing the level of information anyway.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21528 posts, RR: 55
Reply 79, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1765 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
It certainly is because modern transports can take off and land without having to touch the controls... you simply can't do that with a Cub.

Which is irrelevant, because the measure of how easy an airplane is to fly is (or at least should be) made without the aid of autoflight.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 80, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1712 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 79):
Which is irrelevant

It isn't irrelevant at all. The point of this conversation is not at all about the skills to manually fly an airplane but is about what I posted way back in Post #21: And flying an airliner is increasingly "pretty much the same thing".

As Lightsaber has pointed out (and many complaining pilots in pilot forums about their airline's SOP's that inhibit hand flying, plus the Flight Safety Foundation comments) modern airliners can be, and increasingly are, flown without touching the controls... which is increasingly "pretty much the same thing". Furthermore, as Lightsaber posted in detail, and as I referenced as the "technological valley", the avionics processors in airliners compared to what is available in the latest COTS gear is pretty funny especially when compared to the gear for the cognitive abilities of Watson. And since Watson was unveiled on Jeopardy! it has gone from single user to 1,000's user plus being 240% faster and a fraction of the size. In 2014 it will millions of users and in the cloud. In less than 6 years everyone will be able to access "Watson" via their cell phones (watch? electronic tattoo?) and there will be an "Aviation Watson" that for all intents and purposes would obsolete the second pilot.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 81, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1679 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 80):
Furthermore, as Lightsaber posted in detail, and as I referenced as the "technological valley", the avionics processors in airliners compared to what is available in the latest COTS gear is pretty funny especially when compared to the gear for the cognitive abilities of Watson.

   I must emphasize, what is COTS today is a joke.

And I'm only talking about what is known in the public domain that makes the solution obvious.  
Quoting planemaker (Reply 80):
electronic tattoo?

I so want. But will they have a camera option?

Then again, once Google glass is out of beta, I will buy a set.    Anyone with kids knows they need a camera that doesn't require hands.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 80):
there will be an "Aviation Watson" that for all intents and purposes would obsolete the second pilot.

   And there will probably be staffed FAA centers to assist (once the transition to GPS navigation completes) as the copilot. A plane sends out flight parameters out of spec, the FAA over-rides. Camera shows the pilot unconscious (where the copilot would be likely to be also)? The plane would land autonomously anyway... The FAA could send a request to take control and if the pilot doesn't veto (say 1 minute time), then a pilot in a remote center lands. I've seen UAVs landed this way (a second center with more information takes control for flight safety reasons). I've also seen a UAV landing prevented this way! (visual observer at the runway noted a defective flap deployment and took control).

Once you've seen autonomous flight and all the layers of safety, you realize how much human flight needs the backup. I still want a pilot. But I'm ok with one pilot *today* with autonomous software being the backup. Not Watson per se... But a computer. But I would want a set of FAA (or airline operated) centers as a 3rd level of backup.

Seriously, after doing UAVs, who builds with only 2 levels of backup?!? (Pilot and copilot) That is the riskiest part of flight today.

Ligthsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6126 posts, RR: 34
Reply 82, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 1459 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
A plane sends out flight parameters out of spec, the FAA over-rides.

The interesting thing is that there will be several "gates" and "notifications" to the crew and the airline ops center before the flight parameters are out of spec.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
Camera shows the pilot unconscious (where the copilot would be likely to be also)?

Again, the pilot(s) and the ops center would know that they are on their way to unconsciousness.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
The plane would land autonomously anyway...

Yup.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
The FAA could send a request to take control and if the pilot doesn't veto (say 1 minute time), then a pilot in a remote center lands.

As you may know, that is part of NextGen.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
But I'm ok with one pilot *today* with autonomous software being the backup.

Me too.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
Not Watson per se... But a computer.

Watson is a "computer" but what truly sets it apart is the cognitive software. In 2014 IBM will roll out a dialogue Watson.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 81):
But I would want a set of FAA (or airline operated) centers as a 3rd level of backup.

It will be interesting how things roll out. Sensor tech and analytics are advancing so rapidly that there will eventually be no "surprises."



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
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