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Merger Impact On BA/IB And LH At US Hub Cities  
User currently offlineIADguy73 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 109 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 13519 times:

Haven't seen a thread just devoted to this in a while...Now that the merger is 99% done deal I was wondering what impact this will have on BA and LH especially at current US hubs like PHL, CLT and PHX. None of them has significant service from either carrier, and not sure how much BA can increase frequencies from LHR. Could we see the return of LGW flights perhaps? Any new service from MAD or BCN on IB? Would the lonely daily service of LH at CLT and PHL stay?

Cheers!

113 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 13480 times:

On the BA side of things, BA will probably start CLTLHR.

On the LH side of things, I've heard rumors of LH switching the CLTMUC flight to FRA, or keeping it a A333 year round on a less than daily basis. I see no reason why LH wouldn't continue service to PHL.

I don't see IB to PHL/CLT.



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User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6207 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 13089 times:

If anything I could see BA up-gauging the second daily to PHL to a 772 year round. PHL will become a hub to hub route for them, I would imagine LHR CLT would be added in the coming months to complement the daily US service.
LH would stay put in PHL..
It would be nice to see BA back in CLT.



Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7210 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 12669 times:

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
I don't see IB to PHL/CLT.

I don't see IB anywhere....they're in the pits, but hopefully that changes.


PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12526 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.

Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

That said, its not going anywhere.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5179 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12394 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
PHX....well, that's been doing excellent on its own without OW influence. Staying.

Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

That said, its not going anywhere.

You would think that PHX will improve with the merger. With all of the US elites in the Phoenix area, a fair number of them might have in the past flown to a UA hub and connected for LHR or elsewhere in Europe. With US joining oneworld and merging with AA, those elites will be more likely to fly BA to LHR and beyond.


User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12380 times:
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up until recently US used to market LH flights on their website - no more, and without that feed CLTMUC is toast

LH & *A loose big with this merger

I don't see LH replacing MUC with FRA to CLT and PHL is only a matter of time, especially should QR start up service



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12293 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):
I don't see IB anywhere....they're in the pits, but hopefully that changes.

IB is focused on strengthening is existing routes to the United States, as well as enhancing its JV relationship with AA and AY, and coordinating TATL operations with its affiliate, BA.

IB has targeted key oneworld cities in the United States, especially JFK and MIA, as its area of focus. These markets represent an important part of the IB's business over the North Atlantic and the carrier has dedicated its management and operational focus to these cities.

The AA/US merger represents an exceptional opportunity for IB, as well as BA. Once the merger is complete, IB will be able to coordinate US hub traffic from PHL to MAD and onward connections and market its service to additional US hubs in the United States.

IB is turning its operations around and its owner, IAG, has stated repeatedly the carrier is a crucial part of its long-term strategy. IAG-owned Vueling is performing very well and will also benefit from the AA/US merger, as TATL traffic is fed to regional flights throughout Europe.

AA/US is a great opportunity for BA, IB and Vueling.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 8, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 12073 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Excellent is a strong word. Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

Thbis statement of, apparently, fact refers to BA's LHR-PHX service. What is the source for this statement.

Here are some facts:

Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time (although frequency increases were simultaneously announced from LHR to ABZ, EDI, MAN, OSL and ZRH).



The great circle distance between LHR and PHX is 5,271 miles, 3.4 per cent less than that for LHR-LAX. [Source: Great Circle Mapper.} However fares to PHX are usually higher than those to LAX. Here are comparisons for flights from LHR on 27 November returning on 4 December:

F Class. PHX: £6,302. LAX: £11,677.
J Class. PHX: £5089. LAX: £4374.
W Class. PHX: £2909. LAX: £2596.
Y Class. PHX: £646. LAX: £585

[Source BA web site 1800 hrs GMT 13 November.]

So the absolute yield in all classes except F is above that derived from the LAX route even though LAX is further.

In 2012 BA carried 181,021 passengers between LHR and PHX. [Source: CAA web site.)

In 2012 BA operated a 337 seat 'Mid J' Configured 744 on six days a week between LHR and PHX until 29 October and seven days a week from 29 October. [Source: The BA Source web site.] The average number of passengers per flight was therefore 283 giving an average load factor of 84.5 per cent. Compare this with an overall BA passenger load factor for 2012 of 79.9 per cent. [Source: IAG 2012 Annual Report]

So all the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes.


User currently offlineJetBlueCLT From United States of America, joined Oct 2013, 98 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11416 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):

I think your wrong. LH has a huge BMW contract down here. I would imagine they would not want to lose that contract to the new AA. I could see year round LH... 4 weekly in the winter and a daily A343/A333 in the summer. We will have to see how it all plays out.



On the ground spotting JetBlue or sitting on a JetBlue plane at FL350
User currently offlineSelseyBill From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2013, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11289 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes. .

Where did you get that idea from ?

All my personal feedback about LHR-PHX suggests the opposite. Are there any 'a-nutters' with further/ better informed evidence about this ?

The fact that BA have relatively recently gone from 6fpw to daily suggests strength rather than weakness.


User currently offlinegreenwichsud From United States of America, joined May 2008, 60 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11292 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):
LH & *A loose big with this merger

Does CLT really generate enough O&D for this to be a "big loss"?

And if it was a big enough loss, then that implies that it is a big enough market for LH to continue with a downgauged flight and provide connections through FRA or MUC.

WRT connections, there's very little connectivity provided by US that can't be picked up handily by UA:

CLT -> IAD
PHL -> EWR/IAD
PHX -> LAX/DEN/SFO


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5191 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 11239 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Its one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes.

What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.

LON-PHX has been flown continuously since the 1990s, and I think it goes back longer to BCAL. A route that's stuck around for 20 years and is operated by a 747 doesn't sound like an under-performing route, especially when you consider just how many long haul destinations BA have trimmed over the last 15 years.

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 6):
without that feed CLTMUC is toast

I doubt it. The local market is surprisingly strong, courtesy of BMW, so I think it will stick around albeit on smaller gauge. I think the importance of LH flights to US hubs is somewhat over-stated: UA is LH's American partner, and LH feed passengers onto LH if possible due to their JV. The relationship between US and LH is nowhere near as cozy.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 11099 times:

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
On the LH side of things, I've heard rumors of LH switching the CLTMUC flight to FRA, or keeping it a A333 year round on a less than daily basis.
Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 9):
I think your wrong. LH has a huge BMW contract down here. I would imagine they would not want to lose that contract to the new AA.

Yes, BMW has considerable operations in Upstate South Carolina, and LH uses CLT to serve that. You pass several manufacturing facilities on I-85 associated with it. So I'm sure they will at least stick it out for a while to see if the service can hold its own. If it does not, I'm sure LH will figure out a way to accommodate its BMW business through its ATL service. Upstate SC is basically halfway between ATL and CLT. If they do that we may see ATL returning to an A340.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 10877 times:

I see AA/BA flying at least 4 x day on PHL-LHR. I would not be surprised to see further reductions to LH's PHL-FRA flt.

User currently offlinesteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9182 posts, RR: 18
Reply 15, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 10851 times:

I'm thinking LH will probably cease operations at PHL and CLT, I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.


Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineCloneof501 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 10760 times:

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 10):

PHX may not be the strongest hub, but for some reason there's an absolute obsession on hating on PHX and anything related to it on a.net. The PHX-LHR has been doing fine and all the moves from BA have shown they're making money on it, otherwise they wouldn't have upped frequency.


User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 10249 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I'm thinking LH will probably cease operations at PHL and CLT, I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

LH already flies to hostile rival territory such as DFW-FRA, DTW-FRA, and ATL-FRA. You'd seriously think PHL-FRA would vanish into thin air upon dropping of non-existent non-JV US Airways feed ?

Stop thinking in the AA mentality that only hub-to-hub routes can succeed.


User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6207 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 10159 times:

PHL-FRA on LH will not be dropped, at the moment I don't think they get much feed from US in PHL.


Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9886 times:
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Quoting a380787 (Reply 17):

it's not about hostile territory, but the power of alliances and you couldn't have brought up better examples

all 3 LH routes have seen a steady down gauging, because they are not to UA hubs or popular tourist destinations

the loss of US as a partner is the perfect excuse to discontinue MUCCLT and have the BMW folks go through ATL



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlineMah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 20, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9832 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):
What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.

It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

For what purpose? Airberlin already has 3x daily service to JFK and 2x daily service to Miami which overlaps with PHL and CLT, respectively (and, yes, MIA and CLT overlap when it comes to Europe, because the majority of that Europe traffic is going to Florida and California, where MIA works perfectly fine as a connecting point).



a.
User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9806 times:
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Quoting greenwichsud (Reply 11):

Since UA no longer flies PHL-EWR I don't think that's completely accurate. That being said, I definitely think the CLT are here to stay. Not at the guavs they are now, but not completely gone. The PHL flight will be interesting to watch. I'm not familiar with the ratio of O&D:Star connections on the flight.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2914 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 9647 times:

I'd expect we see US-Spain (under the JV):
BOS-MAD - seasonal?
JFK-MAD (2-3 daily)
PHL-MAD
CLT-MAD
MIA-MAD (3 daily)
ORD-MAD
DFW-MAD
LAX-MAD

JFK-BCN
PHL-BCN
MIA-BCN

I wonder if a seasonal DFW-BCN would work? Would also like to see some service to Malaga and Valencia too.


User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 9348 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
MIA works perfectly fine as a connecting point

Yeah, unless one wants to avoid the nightmare that is MIA customs and immigration, and fly via ATL/IAD/CLT.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently offlineJetBlueCLT From United States of America, joined Oct 2013, 98 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9008 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):

I highly doubt they'll drop CLT and PHL. Thats just foolish. Just because US will be exiting the Star doesn't mean LH cant make CLT and PHL work. I can't speak for PHL though but with the BMW contracts LH has down here...they would be kinda dumb to drop those contracts.



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User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9164 posts, RR: 29
Reply 25, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 8647 times:

It's not only BMW that supports MUC CLT, there are hundreds of German firms with manufacturing sites in NC and SC.

In addition to the firms that are supported by the FRA ATL flight, such as VW in Chattanooga and Mercedes in Tuscaloosa. They connect to the automobile Cluster around FRA. Cargo is handled most via all cargo flights to ATL and a freight forwarder has LUX-HSV dedicated fligthts to serve German industry in that area.

PHL was one of the early routes to the US, my bet is, all These will stay.



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User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4125 posts, RR: 1
Reply 26, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 8605 times:

If LH were to loose anything then they should take this opportunity to step in with their own metal and fly the route. If there is not enough business then maybe no one will notice and not enough business to warrant the flight.

[Edited 2013-11-14 02:37:45]


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7210 posts, RR: 17
Reply 27, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 8458 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time
Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
The great circle distance between LHR and PHX is 5,271 miles, 3.4 per cent less than that for LHR-LAX. [Source: Great Circle Mapper.} However fares to PHX are usually higher than those to LAX. Here are comparisons for flights from LHR on 27 November returning on 4 December:

Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

Given that, if IB makes it out of the dumps, one can wonder if they'll add additional service to MAD for euro connections....but there's not too much O&D to MAD from PHX at all and like i said this is given IB comes out of their struggles.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
So all the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes.

Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 28, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 8344 times:

First let me clarify that I should have said one of the worst preforming North American LHR routes by yields. That is very much true. The others being BWI and YYZ. ATL isnt a barn burner either.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
Here are some facts:

Around a year ago BA increased the frequency of its PHX service from Daily except Wednesday to Daily. [Source: BA Press Release of 27 June 2012.] This indicates that it was one of their best performing long-haul routes as it was the only such route with an announced frequency increase at that time (although frequency increases were simultaneously announced from LHR to ABZ, EDI, MAN, OSL and ZRH).

You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes? Thats ridiculously simplistic and faulty reasoning. Airlines announce expansions at different times.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.

  

They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

First off, the PHX-LHR local market could not fill half of 744. It couldnt fill half of a 777. Not to mention, BA doesnt get the entire PHX-LHR market. So this is automatically wrong.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.

Oh please. Dont foolishly cry victim. Most of the time people are correcting some false clueless aspirations for the PHX market. Nobody thinks that. Most people who know about the airline industry think of PHX is that its an unusually US/Canada market. PHX has two million international O&D passengers a year and over half of that is Canada and Mexico. No other international market in the US is so heavy weighted toward our neighboring nations.

PHX is a market that can support one European flight based on its O&D and it has that. I have no doubt that the preformance of the flight will improve when US joins OneWorld, but lets not go overboard.



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User currently offlinesteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9182 posts, RR: 18
Reply 29, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 8004 times:

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 24):
I highly doubt they'll drop CLT and PHL. Thats just foolish. Just because US will be exiting the Star doesn't mean LH cant make CLT and PHL work. I can't speak for PHL though but with the BMW contracts LH has down here...they would be kinda dumb to drop those contracts.

But the thing is, US already flies to FRA and MUC, while LH has only the lone A330 to FRA. As someone questioned before, what is the O&D-Star connection ratio for LH on PHL-FRA? If that is mostly O&D then maybe it will stick around. As I said, tho, US is flying A330s to FRA and MUC as well...

PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 30, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7915 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 29):

But the thing is, US already flies to FRA and MUC, while LH has only the lone A330 to FRA. As someone questioned before, what is the O&D-Star connection ratio for LH on PHL-FRA? If that is mostly O&D then maybe it will stick around. As I said, tho, US is flying A330s to FRA and MUC as well...

PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see...

I don't have hard facts but LH has routinely cut frequencies on the PHL route during the off season. Seasonal reductions have been more prevalent recently but LH has done this at PHL for a while. I also vaguely remember some people reporting that PHL was not a great performer. I don't know maybe there will be some *A holdouts that will use LH.


User currently offlinedtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1154 posts, RR: 2
Reply 31, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7856 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 17):
LH already flies to hostile rival territory such as DFW-FRA, DTW-FRA, and ATL-FRA.
Quoting uberflieger (Reply 19):
all 3 LH routes have seen a steady down gauging, because they are not to UA hubs or popular tourist destinations



Show me where FRA-DTW has been down gauged.


User currently offlineirishayes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2163 posts, RR: 15
Reply 32, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 7867 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 22):
I wonder if a seasonal DFW-BCN would work? Would also like to see some service to Malaga and Valencia too.

It wouldn't. BCN is a highly seasonal, low-yielding destination. Similar to FCO. There is not much of a local market between DFW and BCN, and even with connections, BCN is capably connected to MIA and JFK on OneWorld at the moment. DFW wouldn't add much value.

As for AGP and VLN, the DL experiments from JFK haven't been what I would call grand slams by any means....I would be very surprised to see those high on AA's list of top aspirations.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Not to mention my sources at PHX tell me this thing regularly leaves with a load of 80-95% or more. About half of this is O&D and the other half is euro traffic. With the merger this will most certainly increase the loads on this route.

Throwing out the classic "load factor is everything" crap? Need I go further?

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
this is given IB comes out of their struggles.

IB has shown signs of recovery from Q3 2013 performance.



next flights: msp-phx-slc, msp-mdw, ord-sju, sju-dfw-ord, msp-dfw, dfw-phl, phl-msp, jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Reply 33, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7748 times:

I was on the team that came to PHX back in 1995 to ramp up the operations for the inauguration in 1996.

INAUGURAL: July 1, 1996
AIRCRAFT: DC-10-30 (Old BCAL in BA colors)
CLASSES: First, Club World, Economy
ROUTE: London Gatwick - Phoenix - San Diego - Phoenix - London Gatwick
FREQUENCY: (4) days a week

UPGRADES: Flight has upgraded to a 777 and then to a 747-400
UPGRADES: The San Diego sector was eventually dropped and SAN picked up a non-stop
UPGRADES: Flight frequency moved to 5, then 6 days per week
UPGRADES: London Gatwick was moved to London Heathrow
UPGRADES: 2012 - Frequency increased to 7 days a week.

PARTNERSHIPS: We partnered with America West for a while to feed the flight. This was a great relationship and feed the flight each day.

UK - PHX TRAFFIC: At one point, the numbers were 60-70% UK/Europeans on the flight in the 1990's. That number fluctuates these days. Be interesting to see how AA will now feed with the merger through PHX.

I don't work for BA, but cannot wait to earn miles again as a loyal USAirways flyer but now as an AA flyer in a month of two. I have used UA and US for the LHR flights to keep miles, but to be back on To Fly To Serve, that is a great thing.



"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 34, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7741 times:

Quoting irishayes (Reply 32):
It wouldn't. BCN is a highly seasonal, low-yielding destination. Similar to FCO. There is not much of a local market between DFW and BCN, and even with connections, BCN is capably connected to MIA and JFK on OneWorld at the moment. DFW wouldn't add much value.

Yep. Dont look for DFW-BCN to be flown. Ever.

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 29):
PHL is a huge market. Maybe there IS enough O&D for Oneworld vs. Star competition. I guess we shall see

At PHL yes, but at CLT, no.



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User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 35, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7675 times:

Any chance for a 3rd daily BA LHR-PHL?

User currently offlineosubuckeyes From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 672 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 7674 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

If you could provide a source of this that would be great. I spent about an hour looking for anything on PHX-LHR subsidies, but could only find anything related to the BWI subsidies.


User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 37, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 7598 times:
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Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Given that, if IB makes it out of the dumps, one can wonder if they'll add additional service to MAD for euro connections

uhhh...no. IB is in no place to be adding flights to low-yielding markets where they would bank off of connections.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Don't worry my friend. 90% of people on this site think PHX is just a barren desert with a small population. Most don't realize this airport has a pull of nearly 7 million, and a metropolitan area of 4 million.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
Oh please. Dont foolishly cry victim. Most of the time people are correcting some false clueless aspirations for the PHX market. Nobody thinks that. Most people who know about the airline industry think of PHX is that its an unusually US/Canada market. PHX has two million international O&D passengers a year and over half of that is Canada and Mexico. No other international market in the US is so heavy weighted toward our neighboring nations.

PHX is a market that can support one European flight based on its O&D and it has that. I have no doubt that the preformance of the flight will improve when US joins OneWorld, but lets not go overboard.

Thank you!



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineFLYjoe From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 287 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 7550 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 19):

the loss of US as a partner is the perfect excuse to discontinue MUCCLT and have the BMW folks go through ATL

------------

The BMW folks won't go through ATL if they want to stay on LH for corporate discount purposes. They surely won't drive 2.5 hours, not counting the unpredictable traffic to get to The airport. If LH doesn't continue CLT, that traffic will be routed through Star connections on UA via IAD or EWR. Although UAX may need to do something with the RJ types with a E70 or CR7 to capture the premium traffic.

Remember that LH used to serve CLT in the pre-alliance era with a 747 to FRA with no feed on the USA side. Of course there were only 2 or 3 TATL destinations from CLT and the S14 sked has about 10.


User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Reply 39, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7497 times:

During the Summer of 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, The Arizona Office of Tourism and The City of Phoenix granted $650,000 USD to British Airways to be spent in 2008 and 2009 to "Boost demand on the flight." (PHX-LHR) The link is below:

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/06/16/story9.html

When we started up service from Phoenix, the City of Phoenix Aviation Department was beyond professional and supportive, not just in luring BA, but during those critical start up years, and from my friends at BA, they still are today. Deborah, Ann, Dutch and their teams were miraculous and really rolled out the red carpet for us 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998. The City was very aggressive on their pitch to us and those details, I believe, are confidential but very attractive.

The deal with America West is attached from June 2006.

http://www.airlineinfo.com/dotorders/960624.pdf

[Edited 2013-11-14 17:37:00]


"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 40, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7389 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes?

Please read what I said and please refrain from putting words into my mouth and telling others what you think I think, particularly as you have moved your own goal posts and now say that you had meant to say something very different to what you actually said in Reply 4.

What I actually SAID was

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
the actual evidence suggests that the BA LHR-PHX service is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes

Not being the worst is clearly not necessarily the same as being "one of the best". Indeed they can be as different as BA's worldwide long-haul network and their UK-USA services.

If you had read my post you would have seen I provided several and not just one piece of data. Together I said that these data SUGGEST that the BA LHR-PHX service "is far from being amongst their worst performing long-haul routes".

The other data I provided included the fact that absolute yields in their J, W, and Y Class cabins are higher than on their slightly longer flights to LAX. I also provided data that the passenger load factor on their PHX flights in calendar 2012 was significantly above BA's overall (worldwide) load factor in the same period. This evidence taken as a whole suggests - no more and no less - that the BA PHX route is not amongst the worst performing of ALL BA's long-haul routes.

You appear to be looking at the BA LHR-PHX flight in a similar way to their LHR-BWI flight. But they are very different. The aircraft used on their BWI service is a three-class 763 carrying a maximum 189 passengers. This is the smallest (in terms of number of passengers) aircraft in BA's long haul fleet. BA do not use this type on their PHX flights. Neither do they use any of their three differently configured, larger 772s. Nor do they use their still larger 77Ws. Only rarely have any of BA's 299-seat configured 744s been operated on the PHX route. Instead BA have almost always used what was the highest capacity aircraft in their fleet, until the recent introduction of the A 380, their 744s each configured for up to 337 passengers. Their capacity is 78 per cent above that of their 763s.

The difference here is between my sourced evidence and what it suggests and your so-far unsupported assertion of fact complicated by your original failure to say what you actually meant to say.


User currently offlineCloneof501 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7381 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):
They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

Evidence that you didn't even care to verify or link...


User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7380 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 15):
I see PHL-DUS/TXL/MUC as well as CLT-DUS/TXL/MUC on either AA metal or Air Berlin, or a combination of the two.

Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA, and you think CLT-TXL can actually exist ??


User currently offlinesteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9182 posts, RR: 18
Reply 43, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7302 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 42):
Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA, and you think CLT-TXL can actually exist ??

apples to oranges comparison. THere's no OW feed at FRA, at least not that I'm aware of anyway, and AA's JFK presence as far as hubs go is rather limited. With the new American taking over things at CLT, they'll have a large hub operation out of CLT providing access to Air Berlin's network over at TXL...

Besides, doesn't LH fly several non-stops FRA-JFK? They probably handle all the O&D traffic, and AA pretty much maintains an O&D-based 90-some daily flight operation. By that, I mean they probably had a limited amount of feed for their JFK-FRA flights.



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7280 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 43):
Besides, doesn't LH fly several non-stops FRA-JFK? They probably handle all the O&D traffic, and AA pretty much maintains an O&D-based 90-some daily flight operation. By that, I mean they probably had a limited amount of feed for their JFK-FRA flights.

So you're admitting AA, with its corporate contracts and great FF program, can't compete against a foreign carrier that has no feed on the JFK side ?


User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 45, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7260 times:
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Quoting a380787 (Reply 42):
Merging into an airline that cannot sustain something like JFK-FRA
Quoting a380787 (Reply 44):
So you're admitting AA, with its corporate contracts and great FF program, can't compete against a foreign carrier that has no feed on the JFK side ?

There is a LOT of competition on NYC-FRA. Competition that drives down yields. LH has two flights a day which, this summer, will operated by 1 a380 and 1 747. DL has a low-density 767 on the route. UA and LH fly EWR-FRA with a alot of capacity. The market is well covered, making serving it less appealing when there are less markets with llittle to no competition and any connectivity at all. If they were to fly PHL-TXL, they would have the market pretty much to themselves(slight competition from UA on EWR-TXL) and have connections through TXL on OW partner AirBerlin.

And LH also has a codeshare with JetBlue on the JFK side, so they do have some connectivity, albeit not that much.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 46, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7227 times:

Quoting FLYjoe (Reply 38):
Remember that LH used to serve CLT in the pre-alliance era with a 747 to FRA with no feed on the USA side. Of course there were only 2 or 3 TATL destinations from CLT and the S14 sked has about 10.

Yes. It was the second TATL route from CLT after LGW started in the late 80s. It operated for a few years with a 747 Combi flying FRA-CLT-IAH. IIRC, US started CLTFRA immediately after LH axed the flight.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4002 posts, RR: 13
Reply 47, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7128 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 40):
The other data I provided included the fact that absolute yields in their J, W, and Y Class cabins are higher than on their slightly longer flights to LAX.

The money an airline makes on a route is composed of the tickets that are actually sold. The data you provided said nothing about yields, or "absolute" yields, whatever that means. The data only showed that at a particular point in time fares for specific outbound and return flights in the BA website had different values, with most higher for PHX. A large portion of BA traffic may be seeing different fares that are not offered to you.

Even if the price for two routes is always matched 100% and the number of passengers is the same, the revenue could be very different. Say route A the airline sold 100 tickets far out at $400 and 200 tickets close in for $1000. Then route B saw 200 tickets far out for $400 and 100 tickets close in for $1000. Route A is doing a lot better. Route B may not do well even if it has more volume than route A, and its fares displayed on any searches are always higher than route A. All it takes is route B to lack the business travelers that buy the higher fares.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 48, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7119 times:

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 46):
IIRC, US started CLTFRA immediately after LH axed the flight.

I found an article that states US started CLT-FRA in November '91 and LH at the time had 3 flts/week. So LH must have cancelled the route a short time after.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 49, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6897 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 47):
The data you provided said nothing about yields, or "absolute" yields, whatever that means.

The sourced data I provided was exactly that - sourced data. I was extremely specific as to what that data meant even down to the time and date that the data was obtained from the British Airways web site. The only specific I did not mention was that I chose the dates more or less at random and did not check any other dates. Here "more or less" means that I selected Day 3 for both the outward and return journey as I guessed that Wednesdays could be the day of the week that the PHX flight would have the poorest yields as, until a year ago, the BA flight did not operate on Day 3.

As to querying what I meant by "absolute" yields, it is clear from your subsequent comments that you know precisely what I meant. Indeed you virtually defined what I meant. Thank you. And I would welcome your suggestion as to what alternative publicly available data is indicative of any difference in yield between BA's services to PHX and LAX.

I provided several sets of data. I did so because each set on its own is hardly meaningful.

Increasing the service frequency a year ago was my starting point. But so what?

Using the aircraft configured with a large number of seats says nothing. It could be flying half empty. But it is another small piece of the jigsaw.

Providing total passenger numbers and calculating the passenger load factor further expands an emerging picture.

Comparing the route passenger load factor with the network passenger load factor adds more detail. But by itself is meaningless if tickets are sold at a comparatively low price.

Providing data that shows that the comparative price of tickets, even if obtained only at a specific time on a specific date for only one return journey on specific days chosen almost at random, favourably comparable to the same data on a similar length service serves to clarify the picture.

So if you believe my data is invalid please provide your own. Just do what I did. Check the BA web site for ticket prices for return trips on BA's services to PHX and LAX on any days of your choice and show that your theoretically valid argument has practical relevance to the performance of B A's PHX service. There are literally hundreds of pieces of data from which you can make a selection.

Yes I have been criticised. No. Nobody has yet provided a single piece of sourced data that can be put in the opposite pan of the balance. So I will continue to regard the price data I provided as part of the jigsaw that both suggests and is indicative (but does not prove) that BA's PHX service is not among their worst performing long haul routes.


User currently offlinehjulicher From Liechtenstein, joined Feb 2005, 870 posts, RR: 2
Reply 50, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6862 times:

Quoting luckyone (Reply 13):
. If they do that we may see ATL returning to an A340.

Let's remember that BMW is headquarted in the Bavarian capital MUC, so flying via ATL is not really an option for BMW execs as it would require a double connection. So I doubt that much of the traffic will be siphoned off to ATL, but rather IAD were UA connects CLT and GSP to the hub there. IAD offers more frequency to both FRA and MUC, so it would easily be preferred to ATL.

If LH were to ever weithdraw from the CLT-MUC service, you would definitely see a coordinated effort with UA to time the flights with their IAD operation.

Currently US serves FRA 2x Daily from PHL due to Star connections, I question who is really the stronger player in the FRA-PHL route once all connections die off... my inclinations tell me that once US stops using LH for onward connections, that it will be more difficult for them to continue their services to FRA than for LH to continue its service to PHL.

I think it's a matter of who will change their strategy first? Keep in mind that currently many people in both CLT and PHL are familiar with Star Alliance, and since STAR is the stronger alliance, especially to Asia, it very well could be that the FF base stays with Star.



LH 442
User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 51, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 6718 times:
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Quoting dtw9 (Reply 31):

Show me where FRA-DTW has been down gauged

LH used to run up to 2x daily FRADTW with even 744 in the mix (2009), down to 1 daily 343 (2014)

Quoting FLYjoe (Reply 38):

The BMW folks won't go through ATL if they want to stay on LH for corporate discount purposes

  

yep, you're right, BMW and German suppliers will most likely send most of their folks directly to GSP via EWR or IAD,
although I could see some traffic end up on FRAATL



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlinehjulicher From Liechtenstein, joined Feb 2005, 870 posts, RR: 2
Reply 52, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6597 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 51):
LH used to run up to 2x daily FRADTW with even 744 in the mix (2009), down to 1 daily 343 (2014

In 2007, LH ran 2x A330 service on FRA-DTW, but since NW then reacted with also 2x (75A and A330) service, too much capacity and the service was withdrawn at the end of the summer. That summer NW also tried 75A service to DUS and BRU. NW also started their 1x LHR service (in addition to LGW) after Bermuda II was rescinded. Then as we all know came the downturn of 2008, which hit DTW particularly poignantly.

In recent years, service on LH FRA-DTW has slightly upgauged from A330 service to a mix of A330/A340 (techinically no increase in ASM/ASK), and now with the A346 with A340 substitutions occasionally.

For the NAIAS, LH will offer a one-time second flight.



LH 442
User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 53, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6568 times:
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Interesting Facts About Flights from Frankfurt to Detroit (FRA to DTW)
•Lufthansa operated flights from FRA to DTW using 3 types of aircraft in 2009.
•The largest aircraft servicing flights between Frankfurt and Detroit from Lufthansa is the B747-4 built by Boeing with 333 seats.
•The oldest aircraft servicing trips from Frankfurt, Germany to Detroit, MI in 2009 was Lufthansa's B747-4 from Boeing which started flying in 1990.
•The newest aircraft servicing FRA to DTW in 2009 was Northwest Airlines' A330-3 from Airbus Industrie. The A330-3 started flying in 2004.
•190,363 seats were available on flights from FRA to DTW in 2009. Of those seats, a total of 146,970 passengers flew on all flights from FRA to DTW that year.
•The smallest aircraft servicing flights from FRA to DTW for Lufthansa is the A330-2 built by Airbus Industrie with 222 seats.
•Northwest Airlines, Lufthansa, UNITED offer flights from Frankfurt, Germany to Detroit, MI.
•There were 146,970 passengers that flew from Frankfurt to Detroit in 2009.
•In 2009, there were 3 airline companies operating between Frankfurt and Detroit.
•Northwest Airlines carried a total of 78,533 passengers from FRA to DTW in 2009.
•The average aircraft occupancy on flights from Frankfurt to Detroit in 2009 was 79.98%.

(Source: FAA & BTS 2009 Databases)

just saying  



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4002 posts, RR: 13
Reply 54, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6502 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 49):
And I would welcome your suggestion as to what alternative publicly available data is indicative of any difference in yield between BA's services to PHX and LAX.

For sure a website query is not indicative of the yields that an airline gets on a route. Let me quote the table:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):

F Class. PHX: £6,302. LAX: £11,677.
J Class. PHX: £5089. LAX: £4374.
W Class. PHX: £2909. LAX: £2596.
Y Class. PHX: £646. LAX: £585

[Source BA web site 1800 hrs GMT 13 November.]

Here is what this means: LAX-LHR has nonstop competition, PHX-LHR does not have nonstop competition.

That is all the information of substance that can be gathered from that data. Trying to read route performance from fares it is just a wild guess.

Lke I wrote earlier, the mix of tickets that get sold to business and leisure passengers matters. Also, most long-haul routes will have a significant portion of seats sold to connecting passengers and those markets' fares are often decided independently of what is offered in the nonstop.


User currently offlinedtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1154 posts, RR: 2
Reply 55, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 6497 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 51):

LH used to run up to 2x daily FRADTW with even 744 in the mix (2009), down to 1 daily 343 (2014)
Quoting uberflieger (Reply 19):
all 3 LH routes have seen a steady down gauging, because they are not to UA hubs or popular tourist destinations

So again, Show me where DTW/FRA has been down gauged due to it not being a Star hub and not just due to local market conditions. Lufthansa has indeed run a number of different aircraft on this route and has had two forays into the all cargo market between these two cities (the latest being a twice weekly MD-11 cargo flight),but aircraft used has always been based on the local economy and not whether it was a Star hub.


User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 56, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 6398 times:
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Quoting dtw9 (Reply 55):
So again

again? dude, you argued LH has been downgauging DTWFRA, I post facts, you don't like it

no prob, you just keep believing this is all due to the local economy and not because alliances are reshaping the market place and we'll revisit this subject in 3 years from now, when all 3 alliances and various joint biz have matured  



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlinedtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1154 posts, RR: 2
Reply 57, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 6139 times:

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 56):
again? dude, you argued LH has been downgauging DTWFRA, I post facts, you don't like it

First off, I'm not your "Dude". Secondly,your lack of knowledge of the LH DTW/FRA market is apparent. Lufthansa's flights from Detroit have always relied heavily on belly freight to make it profitable and not on alliance partners feeding traffic. So for the last time, this market is based on local economic conditions which dictate what size aircraft will be flown and not on feed by alliance partners. See you in three years


User currently offlinesteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9182 posts, RR: 18
Reply 58, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 5990 times:

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 45):
There is a LOT of competition on NYC-FRA. Competition that drives down yields. LH has two flights a day which, this summer, will operated by 1 a380 and 1 747. DL has a low-density 767 on the route. UA and LH fly EWR-FRA with a alot of capacity. The market is well covered, making serving it less appealing when there are less markets with llittle to no competition and any connectivity at all. If they were to fly PHL-TXL, they would have the market pretty much to themselves(slight competition from UA on EWR-TXL) and have connections through TXL on OW partner AirBerlin.

And LH also has a codeshare with JetBlue on the JFK side, so they do have some connectivity, albeit not that much.

I couldn't have stated that better if I tried. Thanks. Also, I forgot about B6's codeshare with Lufthansa.



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1048 posts, RR: 5
Reply 59, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 5946 times:

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 50):
I think it's a matter of who will change their strategy first? Keep in mind that currently many people in both CLT and PHL are familiar with Star Alliance, and since STAR is the stronger alliance, especially to Asia, it very well could be that the FF base stays with Star.

Seriously?

Most of the passengers originating in or connecting through Munich from other points in Europe will STAY with LH (because that is a LH hub).

BUT most of the passengers originating in or connecting through PHL or CLT from other points in the US will ABANDON the hub carrier and what is the best frequent flyer program in the US.

OK?

(I think the new AA will takes its chances against LH, knowing that its traffic flows in the US are much larger than LH's in Germany.)

[Edited 2013-11-15 14:18:59]

User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 60, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 5763 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 54):

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):

F Class. PHX: £6,302. LAX: £11,677.
J Class. PHX: £5089. LAX: £4374.
W Class. PHX: £2909. LAX: £2596.
Y Class. PHX: £646. LAX: £585

[Source BA web site 1800 hrs GMT 13 November.]

Here is what this means: LAX-LHR has nonstop competition, PHX-LHR does not have nonstop competition.

That is all the information of substance that can be gathered from that data. Trying to read route performance from fares it is just a wild guess.

Why are you comparing PHX to LAX? LAX has one of the highest fares from the western US to LHR and dwarfs most all US LHR routes. Try using DEN, LAS, SEA as a comparison. The results are much different.


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 61, posted (8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 5719 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):

You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes? Thats ridiculously simplistic and faulty reasoning. Airlines announce expansions at different times.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.


They are still ponying up cash to BA for the PHX-LHR. Thats a lot of evidence right there.

I would like to see your source. The city offered grants during the last recession to maintain continuous service, but BA receives no subsidies today. Oh, and by the way, many airports including MIA offer incentives as a means to attract new carriers or retain existing carriers.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 28):

You think because PHX-LHR went daily when BA didnt announce any other increases that its one of the best preforming routes? Thats ridiculously simplistic and faulty reasoning. Airlines announce expansions at different times.

So let me see if I understand your logic. An airline that flies a subsidized (which by the way BA's PHX route is not subsidized), poor performing route would increase its frequency? This would only make a subsidized, poor performing route even worse. That is what I call faulty reasoning.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 62, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5386 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 60):
Why are you comparing PHX to LAX? LAX has one of the highest fares from the western US to LHR and dwarfs most all US LHR routes.

Because I am presenting evidence that disproves an earlier claim that LHR-PHX is

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
one of the worst preforming longhaul BA routes

If they are still higher than "one of the highest fares from western US to LHR . . . I need say no more.


User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 837 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 5337 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 62):

Lets make this very simple.

Think of the population of LAX and PHX.

Which area would have more of the type of passenger that would actually pay for full F? I'm thinking of the type that stars in movies, owns 5 houses, plays in a multi-platinum band etc.

I wonder which area that would be out of the two listed above.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 64, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5207 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 63):

Lets make this very simple.

Think of the population of LAX and PHX.

Which area would have more of the type of passenger that would actually pay for full F? I'm thinking of the type that stars in movies, owns 5 houses, plays in a multi-platinum band etc.

I wonder which area that would be out of the two listed above.

Sarcasm does not become you, particularly as I have already shown the impact of what you now say. I provided this data

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
F Class. PHX: £6,302. LAX: £11,677.

that shows an F class ticket to LAX could cost almost twice the price of a similar ticket to PHX.

And simple? Please do explain what, to me, is a complex issue. I refer, of course to the association you seem to be trying to make between movie stars and where they live and our discussion of your significantly amended assertion, namely that the PHX service is one of BA's worst performing LHR-USA routes.

Please also provide a source for your claim that the BA LHR / PHX service is still subsidised. Others have denied that such a subsidy still exists.


User currently offlineSelseyBill From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2013, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 65, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 5006 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.
It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy. BWI-LHR is the other one. BA has threatened to leave before.

I'm not doubting the accuracy of this statement, but was surprised to read it.

Does anyone have any links to indicate what levels of subsidy PHX may be paying BA ?


User currently offlineCloneof501 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 66, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4946 times:

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 65):
Does anyone have any links to indicate what levels of subsidy PHX may be paying BA ?

There is no link because PHX isn't paying BA any subsidies. PHX paid BA some money for two years over the recession to help promote the flight, but as of now, BA is receiving no sort of subsidies. And the poster who made that claim is, not to anyone's surprise, ignoring any posts directed at him demanding for a link because he's wrong.


User currently onlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 67, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4947 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 29):
But the thing is, US already flies to FRA and MUC, while LH has only the lone A330 to FRA. As someone questioned before, what is the O&D-Star connection ratio for LH on PHL-FRA? If that is mostly O&D then maybe it will stick around. As I said, tho, US is flying A330s to FRA and MUC as well...

O&D 2011 total pax (both ways)

PHL-MUC - 72 - wow....

CLT-MUC - 59 - double wow.....

And these O&D numbers are with the advantage of already having nonstops from both airports.

With simple math, on an LH 215 seat A333, LH would fly the CLT-MUC route once a week, just to get a 50-50 ratio of O&D to connect pax, while the PHL-MUC would do a flight three times every two weeks just to get a 50-50 ratio of O&D to connect pax.

Doesn't look good for LH to either begin the PHL-MUC market, or to continue with the CLT-MUC market since *A would have no interest to feed it, even though UA/LH would be metal.

And as for AA being interested in having nonstop flights into a major *A hub from its now lesser performing international hubs, well.........

 


User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 837 posts, RR: 0
Reply 68, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4872 times:

Quoting VV701 (Reply 64):
that shows an F class ticket to LAX could cost almost twice the price of a similar ticket to PHX.

And simple? Please do explain what, to me, is a complex issue. I refer, of course to the association you seem to be trying to make between movie stars and where they live and our discussion of your significantly amended assertion, namely that the PHX service is one of BA's worst performing LHR-USA routes.

Once you sell a few of those high class tickets - you can unload some cheap seats as gravy. That is possibly why you may be seeing lower coach fares in LAX.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 69, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4871 times:

LH is not starting MUC-PHL. I expect the merged airline will revaluate PHL-MUC/ZRH/BRU

FWIW, 2011 was 2 years ago when the industry was just turning the corner and I think PHL-MUC was still a 762.


User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 966 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4809 times:

Quoting hjulicher (Reply 52):
In 2007, LH ran 2x A330 service on FRA-DTW, but since NW then reacted with also 2x (75A and A330) service, too much capacity and the service was withdrawn at the end of the summer. That summer NW also tried 75A service to DUS and BRU. NW also started their 1x LHR service (in addition to LGW) after Bermuda II was rescinded. Then as we all know came the downturn of 2008, which hit DTW particularly poignantly.

Northwest's entire TATL 757 effort was an abject failure. It wasn't eight weeks from launch of service to notice of discontinuation on DTW-BRU (and that was before 2008). BDL-AMS didn't last, either. Neither of those had much to do with LH competition.


User currently offlinehjulicher From Liechtenstein, joined Feb 2005, 870 posts, RR: 2
Reply 71, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 4664 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 70):
Northwest's entire TATL 757 effort was an abject failure

I'm not saying it worked, I just mentioned out of DTW a lot of new capacity was added into the market at the same time. I definitely think that does affect the SLF and yield on European flights into the market, even if the foray by NW was short lived.

Quoting uberflieger (Reply 53):
Northwest Airlines, Lufthansa, UNITED offer flights from Frankfurt, Germany to Detroit, MI.

United has never offered flights between DTW and FRA, your source is false as United only codeshares on the LH route. Occasionally UA may have a diversion to DTW on UA 941, but that's as close as it comes.

Additionally, LH no longer flies the A332, and only flies that A333 with 221 seats in high J class configuration (8F, 48J, 165Y) sometimes in the summer the configuration changes to (8F, 36J, 197Y). The A343 also has 221 seats in high J class configuration, and may also see the higher Y class configuration.



LH 442
User currently offlineMah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 72, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 4690 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 69):
I expect the merged airline will revaluate PHL-MUC/ZRH/BRU

Wouldn't be shocked if MUC stays; BRU goes to JFK; ZRH goes to MIA.



a.
User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 73, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4560 times:
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Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 72):

BRU didn't work for them from JFK once, what condtions are different now except SN having established the route and been very successful on it? AA doesn't seem to be in an expand-NYC mode.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineUA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 74, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4575 times:

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 59):
(I think the new AA will takes its chances against LH, knowing that its traffic flows in the US are much larger than LH's in Germany.)

I disagree. LH maybe a German-based airline, but its really a European airline. It's regional feed throughout continental Europe to FRA and in particular MUC means that the airline is drawing many more passengers than just those "in Germany"

For the record, I don't see either route going anywhere either. Really it's AA/US's loss in connecting passengers leaving the US for continental Europe via MUC and FRA.

It has been said enough that CLT-MUC is contract and commerce driven by German companies. LH may get some feed from US at PHL, but it's strong partnership with UA just up and down the coast at EWR and IAD leads me to believe that PHL mainly exists in the LH network for O&D purposes (at least on the PHL end).

[Edited 2013-11-16 17:15:07]

User currently offlineuberflieger From United States of America, joined Jun 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 75, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4517 times:
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Quoting hjulicher (Reply 71):
United has never offered flights between DTW and FRA

United doesn't fly it, but yes, they sell DTWFRA nonstop service  

dude, this thread is really not about DTW, it's about the new American hubs and their impact. Betcha LH will close shop at CLT and struggle in PHL

the merged carriers and their partners are now the top dog in many communities all up and down the East Coast, enabling them to feed new international flying. This will impact their competitors. It's for good reason Delta was studying the possibility of an offer for bankrupt AA  



passionate about The New American :)
User currently offlineMah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 76, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4425 times:

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 73):
BRU didn't work for them from JFK once,

It worked very well for quite a number of years.

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 73):
what condtions are different now except SN having established the route and been very successful on it?

Lower cost structure.

You act like airlines never resume routes.



a.
User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2937 posts, RR: 4
Reply 77, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4344 times:
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Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 76):

You act like airlines never resume routes.

I don't get where you get off saying that over one route, but okay....

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 76):
It worked very well for quite a number of years.

I'm saying that, yes, they did operate for a number of years successfully. However, SN came into the market and ran them (and 9W for that matter) out in a very short time.

I'm just saying that I don't see the route coming back to JFK. Will the new merged airline keep BRU as a destination? Yes. But from the hubs where it is currently successful. IMHO AA were to add BRU from any PMAA hubs, my bet would be ORD or MIA, where there are stronger hubs.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1048 posts, RR: 5
Reply 78, posted (8 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4253 times:

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 74):
I disagree. LH maybe a German-based airline, but its really a European airline. It's regional feed throughout continental Europe to FRA and in particular MUC means that the airline is drawing many more passengers than just those "in Germany"

I acknowledged that. I adopted a sarcastic tone only with respect to the idea that the new AA would not have the same gravity over its own hubs in the US.

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 74):
For the record, I don't see either route going anywhere either. Really it's AA/US's loss in connecting passengers leaving the US for continental Europe via MUC and FRA.

Those connections can be made via LHR.


User currently offlineMah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 79, posted (8 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4270 times:

Quoting MesaFlyGuy (Reply 77):
IMHO AA were to add BRU from any PMAA hubs, my bet would be ORD or MIA, where there are stronger hubs.

JFK is in fact AA's strongest trans-Atlantic hub.

Miami-Brussels is a good sized market, but the yield sucks. Leave it to Jetairfly. Chicago-Brussels overflies key connecting points from the market, notably Miami, Boston and D.C.



a.
User currently offlineSelseyBill From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2013, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 80, posted (8 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4183 times:

Quoting Cloneof501 (Reply 66):
There is no link because PHX isn't paying BA any subsidies. PHX paid BA some money for two years over the recession to help promote the flight, but as of now, BA is receiving no sort of subsidies. And the poster who made that claim is, not to anyone's surprise, ignoring any posts directed at him demanding for a link because he's wrong

That explains a lot.

None of my sources were aware of any support from PHX for BA's service.


User currently offlineSelseyBill From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2013, 131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 81, posted (8 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4179 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 20):
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 12):What on earth is your source for that? I'm sorry, but if you are going to make such an emphatic statement then you should be able to reference it.
It's one of only two BA routes in the U.S. with subisides, and they are quite heavy.

'Mah4546', You have said that subsidies paid to BA "are quite heavy"; suggesting you have a source of information.

Can you provide a link to this information, or inform us what those subsidies levels are ? It seems PHX gave BA some launch aid to get the service started, but what info can you provide us to indicate subsidies currently "are quite heavy".............


User currently offlineUA772IAD From Australia, joined Jul 2004, 1730 posts, RR: 3
Reply 82, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3793 times:

Quoting IADguy73 (Thread starter):
Any new service from MAD or BCN on IB?

Perhaps, but MAD is a poor transit point. I don't see MAD or BCN playing a role like LHR, AMS, or MUC/FRA as a primary transit point for passengers traveling between the US and Europe.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 83, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3809 times:

Quoting SelseyBill (Reply 81):
'Mah4546', You have said that subsidies paid to BA "are quite heavy"; suggesting you have a source of information.

I could very well be confusing the subsidies for the aforementioned promotional support. The route has traditionally been a very poor performer, hence the needed support.



a.
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8284 posts, RR: 7
Reply 84, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3479 times:
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Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
I see AA/BA flying at least 4 x day on PHL-LHR. I would not be surprised to see further reductions to LH's PHL-FRA flt.

Three is more likely and two in the winter between the 2 airlines.


User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 85, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3310 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 72):
ZRH goes to MIA.

Curious why?


User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6449 posts, RR: 9
Reply 86, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3276 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 79):
JFK is in fact AA's strongest trans-Atlantic hub.


By what measurment is JFK their strongest hub?


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 87, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3276 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 84):

Three is more likely and two in the winter between the 2 airlines.

Only reason I speculate this is right now with no cooperation the airlines manage 3x day probably something like 17-19 weekly during the slow season.

Now you are taking all of the connections that US currently sends PHL-MUC/FRA/ZRH/(other *A hubs)-Europe/beyond and basically sending them PHL-LHR-Europe/beyond and a lesser extent MAD.


User currently offlinemhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 672 posts, RR: 1
Reply 88, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3250 times:

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 86):
By what measurment is JFK their strongest hub?

There are more TATL seats on AA ex-JFK than from any other hub, simple. Plus, OW connectivity to Airberlin, Qatar, British Airways, Cathay, JAL, Finnair, Iberia, and Royal Jordanian.

DFW is the largest hub. JFK definitely the largest hub for TATL and OW ops in the USA.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 79):
Miami-Brussels is a good sized market, but the yield sucks. Leave it to Jetairfly. Chicago-Brussels overflies key connecting points from the market, notably Miami, Boston and D.C.

BRU isn't the best fit for NYC. There is some business traffic, but I think that BRU is the perfect kind of TATL market to be routed over CLT / PHL instead of valuable JFK slot time, and you can pick up connections at PHL from Chicago, Miami, Boston, etc. Like VCE, BRU traffic is touristy.

Now, I could see JFK-AMS maybe, but that's only if AA wants to get real aggressive.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 89, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3210 times:

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 85):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 72):ZRH goes to MIA.
Curious why?

Because it is a very large local market with high fares. Miami is the third largest local long-haul market from Zurich after New York and Bangkok.

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 86):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 79):JFK is in fact AA's strongest trans-Atlantic hub.

By what measurment is JFK their strongest hub?

Daily seats, number of destinations served.



a.
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5191 posts, RR: 4
Reply 90, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3043 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 84):
Three is more likely

Given that it's three daily already without any cooperation between US and BA, four (and maybe even 5) is possible/probable depending on how the chips fall.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 91, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2917 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Because it is a very large local market with high fares. Miami is the third largest local long-haul market from Zurich after New York and Bangkok.

I'm not familiar with AA's route structure, if that's the case why don't they already do it?


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8284 posts, RR: 7
Reply 92, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2861 times:
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Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 90):
Given that it's three daily already without any cooperation between US and BA, four (and maybe even 5) is possible/probable depending on how the chips fall.

where are the LHR slots for all these flights going to come from ? BA already merged with BMI, there is no more secondary UK airline with LHR slots to buy.


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 93, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2615 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 92):
where are the LHR slots for all these flights going to come from ? BA already merged with BMI, there is no more secondary UK airline with LHR slots to buy.

Willie Walsh, IAG CEO, earlier announced that of the 54 LHR slot pairs that BA obtained with the purchase of BD, around 14 would be used for new long haul flights as the necessary new aircraft were delivered.

So far BA have implemented a three-times weekly service to CTU and have announced a once daily LHR-AUS flight. So that leaves the equivalent of 12.5 new long-haul flights to be operated by either BA or a partner airline still to be announced. In view of his more recent comments being discussed here:

BA Could Add 5 New Routes To USA From LHR - Walsh (by hjulicher Nov 6 2013 in Civil Aviation)

it is probably not guess work that there are four, perhaps even five, new US destinations being planned but not yet announced. All will effectively use former BD short-haul slots or slots freed up from former BD operations after a significant shuffle of what is now BA's revised, larger slot holding at LHR.

The four questions still to be answered are:

1. Which additional US destinations (or flights)?

2. Whose metal?

3. Which old BD services or recently launched BA short-haul flights (such as those to LBA and RTM) are slot sitting flights?

4. Will the LHR slot-sitting flights be suspended or moved to LGW or even LCY?

Some clues are provided in BA's very recently announced five-year fleet plan. It sees an expansion from 129 to 142 in the their in-service long-haul fleet over the period end-2013 to end-2018. In the same period they are planning a small change in their existing 142-aircraft short-haul fleet through the addition of 3 EMB 190s (but with their remaining 734 LGW fleet being replaced by A 320 family aircraft). (Note here that if the 14 E-Jets currently operated by BA CityFlyer out of LCY are discounted, then over the next five years BA's long-haul fleet will grow and become significantly larger than their short-haul fleet for the first time.

The above BA fleet plans have been discussed here:

BA Operational Fleet Plans 2013-2018 (by VV701 Nov 15 2013 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlinegreenair727 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 557 posts, RR: 0
Reply 94, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2489 times:

I see US/AA keeping CLT-FRA on LH replacing CLT-MUC with CLE-FRA.

User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 95, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2433 times:

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 94):
I see US/AA keeping CLT-FRA on LH replacing CLT-MUC with CLE-FRA.

Say what? CLE?


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 96, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2418 times:

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 94):
I see US/AA keeping CLT-FRA on LH replacing CLT-MUC with CLE-FRA.

I agree with CLT-MUC going, but I cant see CLE-FRA coming on. If CLE could make an overseas market work, it would be LHR and nothing else.

Quoting VV701 (Reply 93):
1. Which additional US destinations (or flights)?

CLT-LHR on BA is imminent I think. Other than that, I think we may see some smaller cities on 757's to LHR on AA.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 87):
Now you are taking all of the connections that US currently sends PHL-MUC/FRA/ZRH/(other *A hubs)-Europe/beyond and basically sending them PHL-LHR-Europe/beyond and a lesser extent MAD.

This is how I see PHL:

PHL-LHR: 4x daily on BA/AA mix
PHL-CDG: daily
PHL-MAD: daily
PHL-FRA: daily
PHL-MAN: daily
PHL-TLV: daily
PHL-FCO: daily
PHL-DUB: daily
PHL-BCN: seasonal

The above markets can all easily be filled profitably with some connections.

The others a question marks. Im not sure if MUC/BRU/ZRH/ATH/EDI will remain at PHL or shift.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 97, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2372 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 96):
This is how I see PHL:

PHL-LHR: 4x daily on BA/AA mix
PHL-CDG: daily
PHL-MAD: daily
PHL-FRA: daily
PHL-MAN: daily
PHL-TLV: daily
PHL-FCO: daily
PHL-DUB: daily
PHL-BCN: seasonal

The above markets can all easily be filled profitably with some connections.

The others a question marks. Im not sure if MUC/BRU/ZRH/ATH/EDI will remain at PHL or shift.

You missed AMS, SNN, VCE, LIS, GLA.

Out of these 10 destinations in question many (save 3 or 4) are not *A hubs so you can't use the argument that they will no longer have *A connections to fill them.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 98, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2359 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 97):
You missed AMS, SNN, VCE, LIS, GLA.

Yes I did. Im not sure the fate of those either.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 97):
Out of these 10 destinations in question many (save 3 or 4) are not *A hubs so you can't use the argument that they will no longer have *A connections to fill them.

Its not that, it has more to do with whether they are better served from JFK or another hub. My opinion is that the smaller destinations may be better served from JFK but the more major ones are better served from PHL.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 99, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2309 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 98):
Its not that, it has more to do with whether they are better served from JFK or another hub. My opinion is that the smaller destinations may be better served from JFK but the more major ones are better served from PHL.

No doubt the TA network from PHL will change, whether routes are dropped all together or shifted to other hubs that can serve the route better. Though we are talking about dismantling half of PHL's TA operation. Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think we have seen such drastic International cuts at one airport as a result of a merger. Maybe MSP, DTW, or MEM though I do not know how large their TA networks were outside of AMS. Maybe STL.


Wouldn't you want to focus JFK on the large destinations that will generate big O&D numbers and let PHL focus on the thinner routes that rely more on connections?


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 100, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2305 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 99):
Wouldn't you want to focus JFK on the large destinations that will generate big O&D numbers and let PHL focus on the thinner routes that rely more on connections?

No, because it's the exact opposite.

The bigger destinations generate traffic from a wider geographic region, while the thinner routes are far more reliant on four cities in particular - New York, Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco.



a.
User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 101, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2297 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 96):
I agree with CLT-MUC going, but I cant see CLE-FRA coming on. If CLE could make an overseas market work, it would be LHR and nothing else.

The banking link between FRA-CLT is probably weaker than the auto link MUC-CLT, so my guess is that if LH has to choose only 1, it will downgauge MUC-CLT from A346 to A333 while US/AA has to find a way to make FRA-CLT survive (current 333 is probably too big, but the smallest they could go is 762/763 since 752 lacks the range)

Unless US/AA could absolutely secure the BMW contract, it wouldn't be so smart to launch CLT-MUC unilaterally in hopes of a future contract. PHL-MUC will already provide plenty seats for a terminating destination.


User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 102, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 2259 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 101):
current 333 is probably too big,

Maybe, but the A333 was flown on the route before the LH codeshare even started. CLTFRA was US's second TATL route after CLTLGW.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 103, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 2223 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 101):
while US/AA has to find a way to make FRA-CLT survive

They dont have to find a way. Given the O&D and connections, the route will survive itself just fine.

Youre forgeting what LH will be losing in CLT: an entire hub of connections. Another thing that has to factor in is that CLT isnt necesarily the yield prize for BMW, GSP is. GSP is home to the BMW manufacturing center for all the Americas and it is a huge contributor to the front cabins of ATL-MUC and CLT-MUC. Now, those connections are lost for LH through CLT.

What will probably happen is that traffic will be fed through IAD if CLT-MUC becomes a gonner (which I suspect it will). But in a war for CLT-Germany, AA/US will prevail not LH.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32613 posts, RR: 72
Reply 104, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 2199 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 103):
GSP is home to the BMW manufacturing center for all the Americas and it is a huge contributor to the front cabins of ATL-MUC and CLT-MUC. Now, those connections are lost for LH through CLT.

Funny enough that while historically MUC has been GSP's largest long-haul market over the past few years, it's now DXB as GSPMUC market has grown considerably smaller - maybe more people driving from ATL or CLT or just a one-year anomaly.



a.
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5232 posts, RR: 25
Reply 105, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2154 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 96):
The others a question marks. Im not sure if MUC/BRU/ZRH/ATH/EDI will remain at PHL or shift.

With respect to ATH, it reportedly does well for US on a seasonal basis so it may simply stay at PHL. That said, it would probably make sense to move it up to JFK where they can capture greater O/D. While I don't expect this to happen, it would be really cool to see them move it over to ORD. It would given them a larger local market than PHL, no other competition, and you still get a lot of connections.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 103):
What will probably happen is that traffic will be fed through IAD if CLT-MUC becomes a gonner (which I suspect it will).

Agreed.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 103):
But in a war for CLT-Germany, AA/US will prevail not LH.

Correct. I know the CLT boosters don't like to hear it, but CLT is a really small market and supports a hub its size with so many TATL destinations because US only has one other feasible option. With DFW, ORD, and JFK coming online, CLT is going to get right-sized and is very likely to lose the LH flight as well as flights to LIS, MAD, and BRU among others. As you note, the connections to GSP can be made via ATL as well as CLT.



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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 106, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2158 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 104):
Funny enough that while historically MUC has been GSP's largest long-haul market over the past few years, it's now DXB as GSPMUC market has grown considerably smaller - maybe more people driving from ATL or CLT or just a one-year anomaly.

Its not just GSP. MUC-CLT has decreased in size in recent years as well. It was at one point 70 PDEW. In recent years, that number has been closer to 35.



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User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 107, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2104 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 103):

They dont have to find a way. Given the O&D and connections, the route will survive itself just fine.

Youre forgeting what LH will be losing in CLT: an entire hub of connections.

See the flaw in your logic ? US/AA will somehow do fine on CLT-FRA even though they'll lose connections on european end (stop talking about what happened decades ago), but LH will totally lose MUC-CLT because of insignificant through connections on the CLT end. LH MUC-CLT is 346 summer 333 winter. US FRA-CLT is just 333 year-round. It totally defies logic, but MUC is definitely the more crucial one here.

LH much prefer routing people via UA, and US Airways much prefer routing via FRA than MUC in the pre-merger world, so the notion that LH will implode on CLT-MUC and hand the keys of the kingdom to oneworld is laughable.

Net net the merger is the same - you gain some LHR/MAD/TXL, but you must also lose some FRA/MUC/ZRH. No free lunch here.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 108, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2073 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 107):
See the flaw in your logic ? US/AA will somehow do fine on CLT-FRA even though they'll lose connections on european end (stop talking about what happened decades ago), but LH will totally lose MUC-CLT because of insignificant through connections on the CLT end. LH MUC-CLT is 346 summer 333 winter. US FRA-CLT is just 333 year-round. It totally defies logic, but MUC is definitely the more crucial one here.



No flaws. It is much easier to fill a plane to FRA than MUC. With LH's MUC-CLT, the airline has to rely on traffic destined for CLT. But with AA/US's the airline is relying on traffic destined for FRA. Lets face it, FRA is a much larger market than CLT. It will be much easier to fill the plane profitably flying to such a huge market as opposed to a smaller one. Perhaps AA might put a 763 on it instead, but it will be flown.

As for the aircraft type, CLT-FRA is flown with US' largest aircraft and is twice daily in the summer. The fact that LH uses a larger airplane is irrelevant because US does use their largest one on the route. Year round, there is more capacity on CLT-FRA than CLT-MUC.



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User currently offlineandy33 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2009, 182 posts, RR: 0
Reply 109, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2043 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 97):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 96):
This is how I see PHL:

PHL-LHR: 4x daily on BA/AA mix
PHL-CDG: daily
PHL-MAD: daily
PHL-FRA: daily
PHL-MAN: daily
PHL-TLV: daily
PHL-FCO: daily
PHL-DUB: daily
PHL-BCN: seasonal

The above markets can all easily be filled profitably with some connections.

The others a question marks. Im not sure if MUC/BRU/ZRH/ATH/EDI will remain at PHL or shift.

You missed AMS, SNN, VCE, LIS, GLA.

Out of these 10 destinations in question many (save 3 or 4) are not *A hubs so you can't use the argument that they will no longer have *A connections to fill them.

I count 5 *A hubs in the combined lists of 10 "question mark" destinations - MUC (LH), BRU (SN), ZRH (LX), LIS (TP) and ATH (A3),


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3388 posts, RR: 7
Reply 110, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1983 times:

Quoting andy33 (Reply 109):
I count 5 *A hubs in the combined lists of 10 "question mark" destinations - MUC (LH), BRU (SN), ZRH (LX), LIS (TP) and ATH (A3),

I can see MUC and maybe ATH potentially staying and would not be surprised to see BRU, ZRH, and LIS go. I also don't think SNN, GLA, and EDI will all stay, not sure what will stay though.


User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 111, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1952 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 108):
No flaws. It is much easier to fill a plane to FRA than MUC. With LH's MUC-CLT, the airline has to rely on traffic destined for CLT. But with AA/US's the airline is relying on traffic destined for FRA. Lets face it, FRA is a much larger market than CLT. It will be much easier to fill the plane profitably flying to such a huge market as opposed to a smaller one. Perhaps AA might put a 763 on it instead, but it will be flown.

Even with 2x daily CLT-FRA (one 333 one 332) in summer, US is only offering 48 premium seats (only J).

A single LH 346 alone offers 8 F + 60 J = 68 premium seats

US can chase all that low-yield Y traffic to FRA they want - it's very obvious where the true money is


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7499 posts, RR: 24
Reply 112, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1929 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 111):
Even with 2x daily CLT-FRA (one 333 one 332) in summer, US is only offering 48 premium seats (only J).

A single LH 346 alone offers 8 F + 60 J = 68 premium seats

US can chase all that low-yield Y traffic to FRA they want - it's very obvious where the true money is

Again, they are using their largest planes. They dont have a plane that has more premium seats than that.

The fact that they are using their two largest planes for 2x daily flights speaks volumes. Granted, I dont think they can do it once they no longer partner with LH. But one flight a day is definately in the cards.



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User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5232 posts, RR: 25
Reply 113, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 1835 times:

Quoting a380787 (Reply 111):
US can chase all that low-yield Y traffic to FRA they want - it's very obvious where the true money is

The only thing that's obvious is that LH offers more premium seats between CLT and Germany. Without profit and loss info, you can't definitely claim that LH is making more money on CLT-MUC than US is making on CLT-FRA. The aircraft's configuration is just one piece of the larger puzzle.



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