user444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 322 posts, RR: 0 Posted (4 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 11701 times:
I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are about what's next for B6, AS, VX, and F9 after AA/US merge? AA and US will be busy working on their merger (and US finishing their last one), so what's next for the remaining smaller airlines?
I am not saying there should be any more mergers, or will be. I know many here think there have been too many already. I am interested in what everyone thinks. Even if the DOJ was not successful in blocking AA/US, they did effectively serve notice that any future merger attempts will not be easy or without concessions, at least until after 2016. But if there were it could get interesting.
B6 - The only legacy partner I could see for B6, unless things drastically change, would be AA. I doubt UA would want to set up a competing hub across the Hudson (or be allowed to). The DOJ would never allow DL/B6 with DL big at JFK and LGA. I would expect to see more cooperation (not saying merger) between AA and B6 but I could be wrong.
AS - DL seems to make the most sense reading posts here. But as some have mentioned, DL's build up in SEA will not help them with the DOJ. Normally I would think AA would have something to say about AS/DL, but they are busy with US for the time being.
VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.
Maybe no more future tie ups can happen without a distribution of assets among different carriers. And I do not agree with those who have warned that AA/US will lead to 1 or 2 legacy carriers in the future. I do not see any way the DOJ or the EU would ever allow it and it would cause a major realignment among global alliances.
mhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 601 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (4 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 11544 times:
Quoting user444555 (Thread starter): VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.
F9 will either be the ULCC competition for NK or they'll be happily married in the next few years.
flyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1058 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 11257 times:
VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6
F9 gets whipped into shape by Franke. Lower costs than NK, and gives them serious competition. The two groups will be whipsawed against each other to maintain low costs. "Take this concession or else the other guys will beat us!" Investors profit.
AS plugs along on their own, more and more pressure from DL finances start to slip, becomes open to merger in 3-5years
These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.
[Edited 2013-11-13 08:39:30]
"When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." -Paul Brown
user444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 10614 times:
Quoting william (Reply 6): I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.
I don't think we will see another attempt until after 2016. At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS. It will be interesting to see if AA and B6 start doing more. I think they just earn miles now and don't codeshare. If AA thinks they can continue some sort of partnership with B6 at JFK and not hurt their PHL ops, it will be interesting to see what happens.
AA will have to keep JFK service levels consistent because of the settlement, so they might be able to use some domestic feed for their Intl ops.
BoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2845 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (4 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 10551 times:
Quoting user444555 (Reply 7): At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS.
I've always said that I think it was a brilliant move by AS to lock in both AA and DL as significant partners if their long-term desire is to remain independent. One is not likely to want AS to be taken over by the other, and loss of either code share and connection revenue hurts AS's business model. Brilliant.
deltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8862 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (4 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10457 times:
Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5): But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.
Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:
Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.
BoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2845 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (4 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10405 times:
Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13): Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:
AS isn't a "regional" airline. In case you having noticed they are one of the majors and serve everything from OME to FLL to BOS to MEX to LIH to YYC. That doesn't sound too regional to me.
AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.
Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.
ouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4446 posts, RR: 22
Reply 16, posted (4 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 10204 times:
My personal opinion is that the mergers are done for now. The next step will be a new crop of startups after things settle down a bit and AA/US finish consolidating. At least we can hope for competitive reasons.
Any opinion/comment posted is that of my own and not that of Southwest Airlines Co.
This is just me thinking out loud, but B6 needs to set something up with Porter for Canada. It just seems like a logical match to me. Especially if Porter wants to grow and expand their network with the C-Series, it seems like they might need a good trans-border partner.
Happiness is rediscovering a forgotten L-1011 in your flight log.
B6WNQX From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 243 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 9854 times:
Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.
Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.
ripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1119 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (4 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 9699 times:
AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging
F9 is starting to look more and more like NK and wouldn't surprise me if they joined up.
Everyone thinks that DL is just going to swoop in and force AS to do this n that I don't see that happening they are going to force AS in a hole where they will wake the sleeping giant that they will regret.
planespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3510 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (4 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 9642 times:
It's possible that in 5-10 years, after the US/AA merger is complete and after one of F9 or VX is combined with another carrier or actually is gone, we will be in the same position the airline industry was during the mid 90s ... financial success and booming profit potential.
And with that comes ... new entrants. And so the cycle will begin anew.
TSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 3034 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (4 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 9837 times:
Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21): Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.
That sounds like a good plan to me. I raised that possibility in one of the hundreds of "who is going to merge with whom next?" threads here, and if I recall correctly the main objection was that B6 and AS have very different corporate cultures and might not mesh as well in reality as it seems they would on paper. Still, this is a different thread and other objections or possible benefits might be enumerated that weren't mentioned before.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
: From a financial perspective, the whole point of merging is to achieve synergies and eliminate a competitor. Seeing as those two serve entirely diffe
: I wonder if AS somehow suffers a catastrophic failure a la PA, what would happen? Yep. that's true. But I hope they indeed to go long-haul. They shou
: I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking
: Also, remember that US was attempting a hostile takeover of DL, which triggered the Keep Delta My Delta campaign. Whatever happens, we will not see D
: how much will the DOJ objects to it, I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of havi
: Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic th
: I can a agree with you, but in the most recent merger there were measures taken by the DOJ to hold the inevitable at least for 3 years, that said Del
: Hmmm? Sorry, I'm not sure I understand what you mean. Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the
: Once the AA/US merger closes, that will close the book on any major mergers in the airline industry. Any additional consolidation will be among the sm
: Absolutely correct. Here is my assumed breakdown if AS and DL Merged (Critique if needed) Horizon: -Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops f
: I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination. Or even a 4-way with NK included. All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet
: That would be the biggest disaster in aviation history of all time!
: Consider yourself corrected. it is due to international treaties. If AF/KL were combined, then they would have to abide by the international treaties
: You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of
: DL/UA are close. AA is going to be pretty big by fleet AA is only about 100 aircraft smaller than DL....add in ~300-400 airplanes at US....... Its ha
: You're right, I have no idea, and frankly, the "complete disaster" you're making vague references to is not relevant to the discussion, as there are
: The staus quo is hard to maintain, praticularly in a stagnent economic environment when each company is looking for growth. So, the following could ha
: I definitely don't see this in the next 5 years or 50. The DOJ, even a Republican DOJ, would have major issues with this, especially due to the slot
: Good fleet integration and a complimentary route map, I think the fact B6 has no premium cabin (sans the new JFK-LAX/SFO) flights to compete with AA
: Ok to re-focus my thought process. The AA/US merger was supported by many on the grounds that without that size, neither would be able to compete with
: They're going to stay with private equity groups ....for a loooooooooooong time. No mergers with airlines that I can see. Mariner- not judging your F
: Sure, they will, but not that quickly. The real money, the big stuff, is selling it to the public, the Initial Public Offering, the IPO. That's when
: First, although HA and AS are not what anyone would call global airlines, they are not exactly regional airlines either by most peoples definition. S
: I recall this very same view from some very loyal DEN residents with regards to F9 only a few months ago. Alas, that view is much different. Sometime
: Oh, please....... what a ridiculous statement. A combination of DL/AS would not have a "strangle hold" (your term) on the West Coast. So in your worl
: To use the unsound logic used by others in regard to the AA/US merger... the DOJ has to allow a DL/AS merger since they allowed the US/AA merger. Per
: And they never are no matter what they say. They are about growth and earnings, or the illusion of growth and earnings. That is why we are not done.
: I think most people who made that argument, myself included, made it because DL and UA were much bigger and in my case, I thought it would be difficu
: How about WN making a play for B6 and AS? It would put them on the same level as AA/UA/DL as far as market share. http://www.statista.com/statistics/
: So now that we have these mega carriers what do we do when one of them ends up in financial trouble? I say no way on earth do they get a cent of bailo
: Southwest doesn't need to buy market share. Southwest bought AirTran to eliminate a competitor and buy access into the last remaining major U.S. mark
: As many others have noted - VX and F9 are heading in opposite directions. F9 is going to be a large scale ULCC player - bear in mind - they are alrea
: They go out of business, the market is temporarily in turmoil, and then the market adjusts. It works that way in basically every other industry excep
: Because gas is an airlines most used commodity I'd like to see F9, NK and maybe Sun Country buy a fuel farm; similar to what DL did. Outside of hedgin