Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?  
User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 353 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 11932 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are about what's next for B6, AS, VX, and F9 after AA/US merge? AA and US will be busy working on their merger (and US finishing their last one), so what's next for the remaining smaller airlines?

I am not saying there should be any more mergers, or will be. I know many here think there have been too many already. I am interested in what everyone thinks. Even if the DOJ was not successful in blocking AA/US, they did effectively serve notice that any future merger attempts will not be easy or without concessions, at least until after 2016. But if there were it could get interesting.

B6 - The only legacy partner I could see for B6, unless things drastically change, would be AA. I doubt UA would want to set up a competing hub across the Hudson (or be allowed to). The DOJ would never allow DL/B6 with DL big at JFK and LGA. I would expect to see more cooperation (not saying merger) between AA and B6 but I could be wrong.

AS - DL seems to make the most sense reading posts here. But as some have mentioned, DL's build up in SEA will not help them with the DOJ. Normally I would think AA would have something to say about AS/DL, but they are busy with US for the time being.

VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

Maybe no more future tie ups can happen without a distribution of assets among different carriers. And I do not agree with those who have warned that AA/US will lead to 1 or 2 legacy carriers in the future. I do not see any way the DOJ or the EU would ever allow it and it would cause a major realignment among global alliances.

Cheers.

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:47:35]

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:49:20]

89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 670 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 11775 times:

Quoting user444555 (Thread starter):
VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

F9 will either be the ULCC competition for NK or they'll be happily married in the next few years.

VX has synergies with B6.


User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 11488 times:

Predictions

VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6

F9 gets whipped into shape by Franke. Lower costs than NK, and gives them serious competition. The two groups will be whipsawed against each other to maintain low costs. "Take this concession or else the other guys will beat us!" Investors profit.

AS plugs along on their own, more and more pressure from DL finances start to slip, becomes open to merger in 3-5years



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7201 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 11419 times:

None of them will merge. not in the next 10 years.


B6 will probs expand with some long-haul airframes (I'm smelling an A350 order)

F9 will continue to go down the ULCC route.

AS....they're AS. they do what they're doing right already.

VX....hell idk what they're doing anymore. no comment.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (8 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 11336 times:

The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base.

DL, UA and AA are all now roughly the same size. AS+DL will again skew everything the way they originally did merging with NW.


User currently onlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 293 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (8 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 11114 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):

If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

[Edited 2013-11-13 08:39:30]


38 Flights/37,891 Miles Flown
User currently offlinewilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1260 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10943 times:

I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 353 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10845 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting william (Reply 6):
I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

I don't think we will see another attempt until after 2016. At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS. It will be interesting to see if AA and B6 start doing more. I think they just earn miles now and don't codeshare. If AA thinks they can continue some sort of partnership with B6 at JFK and not hurt their PHL ops, it will be interesting to see what happens.

AA will have to keep JFK service levels consistent because of the settlement, so they might be able to use some domestic feed for their Intl ops.


User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2978 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10782 times:

Quoting user444555 (Reply 7):
At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS.

I've always said that I think it was a brilliant move by AS to lock in both AA and DL as significant partners if their long-term desire is to remain independent. One is not likely to want AS to be taken over by the other, and loss of either code share and connection revenue hurts AS's business model. Brilliant.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10751 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN

Correct.

JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

PS We start Lima next week


User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6444 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10740 times:

I believe you will see DL and AS forming a partnership with each airline retaining its own individuality. This would be like AF/KL

User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 353 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10697 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
PS We start Lima next week

Good luck on the new route.


User currently onlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8893 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10689 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.


User currently onlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 293 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (8 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 10657 times:

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):

Where from? FLL? MCO?



38 Flights/37,891 Miles Flown
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2978 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10636 times:

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13):
Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

AS isn't a "regional" airline. In case you having noticed they are one of the majors and serve everything from OME to FLL to BOS to MEX to LIH to YYC. That doesn't sound too regional to me.

AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.

Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (8 months 2 weeks ago) and read 10563 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 14):
Where from? FLL? MCO?

FLL-LIM 1x Daily


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4565 posts, RR: 23
Reply 16, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 10435 times:

My personal opinion is that the mergers are done for now. The next step will be a new crop of startups after things settle down a bit and AA/US finish consolidating. At least we can hope for competitive reasons.

User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10305 times:

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

Except Canada  



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlineredzeppelin From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 545 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10248 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

This is just me thinking out loud, but B6 needs to set something up with Porter for Canada. It just seems like a logical match to me. Especially if Porter wants to grow and expand their network with the C-Series, it seems like they might need a good trans-border partner.



Happiness is rediscovering a forgotten L-1011 in your flight log.
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 10205 times:

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 19):

I'd like to see that, and/or Westjet.



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlineB6WNQX From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 245 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 10085 times:

Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 9991 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

Hmmmmm Don't be so sure. Never know what the future holds! Anything is possible  


User currently offlineripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1149 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9930 times:

AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging
F9 is starting to look more and more like NK and wouldn't surprise me if they joined up.
Everyone thinks that DL is just going to swoop in and force AS to do this n that I don't see that happening they are going to force AS in a hole where they will wake the sleeping giant that they will regret.


User currently offlineplanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3524 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9873 times:

It's possible that in 5-10 years, after the US/AA merger is complete and after one of F9 or VX is combined with another carrier or actually is gone, we will be in the same position the airline industry was during the mid 90s ... financial success and booming profit potential.

And with that comes ... new entrants. And so the cycle will begin anew.



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineTSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 3065 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (8 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 10068 times:

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21):
Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

That sounds like a good plan to me. I raised that possibility in one of the hundreds of "who is going to merge with whom next?" threads here, and if I recall correctly the main objection was that B6 and AS have very different corporate cultures and might not mesh as well in reality as it seems they would on paper. Still, this is a different thread and other objections or possible benefits might be enumerated that weren't mentioned before.



Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
25 Cloneof501 : From a financial perspective, the whole point of merging is to achieve synergies and eliminate a competitor. Seeing as those two serve entirely diffe
26 Post contains images PHX787 : I wonder if AS somehow suffers a catastrophic failure a la PA, what would happen? Yep. that's true. But I hope they indeed to go long-haul. They shou
27 planespotting : I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking
28 DL747400 : Also, remember that US was attempting a hostile takeover of DL, which triggered the Keep Delta My Delta campaign. Whatever happens, we will not see D
29 Post contains images NYCAdvantage : how much will the DOJ objects to it, I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of havi
30 BoeingGuy : Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic th
31 NYCAdvantage : I can a agree with you, but in the most recent merger there were measures taken by the DOJ to hold the inevitable at least for 3 years, that said Del
32 Post contains images mariner : Hmmm? Sorry, I'm not sure I understand what you mean. Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the
33 srbmod : Once the AA/US merger closes, that will close the book on any major mergers in the airline industry. Any additional consolidation will be among the sm
34 AS737MAX : Absolutely correct. Here is my assumed breakdown if AS and DL Merged (Critique if needed) Horizon: -Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops f
35 aerohottie : I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination. Or even a 4-way with NK included. All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet
36 mhkansan : That would be the biggest disaster in aviation history of all time!
37 superjeff : Consider yourself corrected. it is due to international treaties. If AF/KL were combined, then they would have to abide by the international treaties
38 DL747400 : You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of
39 Deltal1011man : DL/UA are close. AA is going to be pretty big by fleet AA is only about 100 aircraft smaller than DL....add in ~300-400 airplanes at US....... Its ha
40 srbmod : You're right, I have no idea, and frankly, the "complete disaster" you're making vague references to is not relevant to the discussion, as there are
41 TVNWZ : The staus quo is hard to maintain, praticularly in a stagnent economic environment when each company is looking for growth. So, the following could ha
42 user444555 : I definitely don't see this in the next 5 years or 50. The DOJ, even a Republican DOJ, would have major issues with this, especially due to the slot
43 RWA380 : Good fleet integration and a complimentary route map, I think the fact B6 has no premium cabin (sans the new JFK-LAX/SFO) flights to compete with AA
44 par13del : Ok to re-focus my thought process. The AA/US merger was supported by many on the grounds that without that size, neither would be able to compete with
45 Post contains images PHX787 : They're going to stay with private equity groups ....for a loooooooooooong time. No mergers with airlines that I can see. Mariner- not judging your F
46 mariner : Sure, they will, but not that quickly. The real money, the big stuff, is selling it to the public, the Initial Public Offering, the IPO. That's when
47 DL747400 : First, although HA and AS are not what anyone would call global airlines, they are not exactly regional airlines either by most peoples definition. S
48 yellowtail : I recall this very same view from some very loyal DEN residents with regards to F9 only a few months ago. Alas, that view is much different. Sometime
49 DL747400 : Oh, please....... what a ridiculous statement. A combination of DL/AS would not have a "strangle hold" (your term) on the West Coast. So in your worl
50 Indy : To use the unsound logic used by others in regard to the AA/US merger... the DOJ has to allow a DL/AS merger since they allowed the US/AA merger. Per
51 TVNWZ : And they never are no matter what they say. They are about growth and earnings, or the illusion of growth and earnings. That is why we are not done.
52 user444555 : I think most people who made that argument, myself included, made it because DL and UA were much bigger and in my case, I thought it would be difficu
53 Post contains links flyby519 : How about WN making a play for B6 and AS? It would put them on the same level as AA/UA/DL as far as market share. http://www.statista.com/statistics/
54 Indy : So now that we have these mega carriers what do we do when one of them ends up in financial trouble? I say no way on earth do they get a cent of bailo
55 commavia : Southwest doesn't need to buy market share. Southwest bought AirTran to eliminate a competitor and buy access into the last remaining major U.S. mark
56 AirFRNT : As many others have noted - VX and F9 are heading in opposite directions. F9 is going to be a large scale ULCC player - bear in mind - they are alrea
57 commavia : They go out of business, the market is temporarily in turmoil, and then the market adjusts. It works that way in basically every other industry excep
58 GentFromAlaska : Because gas is an airlines most used commodity I'd like to see F9, NK and maybe Sun Country buy a fuel farm; similar to what DL did. Outside of hedgin
59 flyby519 : And how about NYC?
60 commavia : How about it? Southwest now flies to three airports in the NYC metro area - LGA, EWR and ISP. And by the looks of it, Southwest is about to get bigge
61 slcdeltarumd11 : The government will never let AS+DL merge in the next 10 years. Delta wouldn't support all those small Alaska communities or PDX or the secondary mar
62 flyby519 : The largest aviation market in the country and the largest domestic airline has a minuscule presence. Even if they get another half dozen LGA slots i
63 sunking737 : Their is one airline no one talks about. The founders always wanted it that way. Its talked about from time to time here in these posts. They just lov
64 slcdeltarumd11 : WN has enough seats in the NYC market to satisfy its demand for its loyalists to fly in now, its a big step. I don't think WN wants a large FF base in
65 RWA380 : Are you paying any attention to what is happening? With DLs recent adds SEA-LAX/PDX/LAS/SFO, A combined carrier would have up to 90% market share on
66 Deltal1011man : filled doesn't mean anything. I don't see Delta wanting to keep most of AS's P2P network. I full expect those aircraft used to build up SEA more. Whe
67 DL747400 : No one ever said DL would retain the loyal AS flyers. Contrary to popular belief, passengers and frequent flyers are not acquired in a merger. Airlin
68 XT6Wagon : AS is *possible* but unlikely unless AS heads into bankruptcy. The only things AS has that WN can't do right this second is the small alaska routes a
69 TVNWZ : Yes, that would be a healthy domestic market. But, competition being what it is, those three to four airlines will compete. The airline that can not
70 HiFlyerAS : WN would jump on AS due to their Hawaii routes and West Coast dominance but both airlines have repeatedly said that organic growth, not mergers, is t
71 RWA380 : It does for AS, you don't have 1.4 billion dollars in the bank by flying low yielding routes. These are not the large players up and down the west co
72 DL747400 : Check your DOT stats. DL's SEA passenger enplanements and market share are both UP significantly year over year. Clearly somebody is buying what DL b
73 Deltal1011man : no it doesn't. Please, show me data that even come close to suggesting every single route AS is flying to Hawaii makes money. (I'm not saying they do
74 RWA380 : That is not what I said or even suggested, so why am I supposed to do the work you want done? That was what I was saying, AS did not end up with a bi
75 DL747400 : Oh that's OK because DL is not afraid of a good hard fight and will earn the business of a the SEA business traveler fair and square.
76 cageyjames : Say what? WN and UA are huge on the west coast. Show me an airport on the left coast that WN doesn't have a boatload of flights?
77 OzarkD9S : LGB EUG MFR PSP FAT BFL SCK MRY SBA etc....
78 Post contains images cageyjames : What's funny is that I almost included that list as a joke. I figured you would have thrown in CLD and SBA as proof that WN is weak on the west coast
79 PHX787 : Ahhhhhhh that's it! That's exactly it....but can F9 make a good IPO?,.......I don't think they can do anything A la Twitter....then again,...differen
80 mariner : I'm not sure how Twitter comes into this, but Indigo brought Spirit successfully to IPO - and made a big bunch of money. No reason why they can't to
81 RWA380 : UA is big if you are flying to SFO, and that is it. If you are referring to intra-California then yes both UA and WN are players, but between the sta
82 Post contains images TSS : Well played, Sir, well played.
83 ASFlyer : There's so much arrogance at DL but so little to really back it up with. Customers aren't as in love with DL as some of their employee/loyalists are
84 DL747400 : Nah, not at all. Was merely pointing out that DL is ready for a good hard fight. DL didn't expand this far in SEA thinking AS or the SEA passengers o
85 NYCAdvantage : We don't know what the future will bring to us in Seattle, between this two airlines, but I don't see any battle brewing between them, that said ther
86 ASFlyer : I think Delta has a pretty competitive product and most likely even a better First Class product on longer flights. Look for Alaska to up their game
87 airliner371 : Maybe not large but WN would be happy to grow their NYC FF base at a reasonable cost. The only way for this to happen is for them to get a LOT of slo
88 RWA380 : I'm all for individual opinions, and I'll respect your desire to feel the way you do, but I flew DL the first time they flew SEA-PDX with L10s, 767s,
89 Post contains images bluefltspecial : I agreed but then again take a look... I did my best from what I know and what I could find online... This is just a rough version... United 30 A32X
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
After Jet Blue, What's Next For Bermuda? posted Fri Feb 3 2006 19:01:56 by Columbia107
What's Next For VX? posted Mon Oct 28 2013 10:15:15 by questions
What's Next For AA's Arpey (a New Job) posted Tue Nov 29 2011 13:43:14 by BC77008
After The Pilot Agreement - What's Next For DL posted Tue Apr 11 2006 21:33:15 by WorldTraveler
What Next For US Airliners posted Wed May 4 2005 01:50:31 by Flybynight
What's Next For ASA After The DL Announcement? posted Thu Sep 9 2004 22:35:24 by ZASPringboks
What's Next For F9 JetExpress? posted Sun May 30 2004 22:53:33 by Flashmeister
What's Next For ORD Part 2 posted Wed Oct 30 2013 17:13:01 by iowaman
What's Next For YVR? posted Tue Sep 24 2013 15:41:30 by opethfan
What's Next For ORD posted Fri Sep 20 2013 07:28:53 by ORD2010