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After AA/US, What's Next For B6, AS, VX, F9?  
User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 356 posts, RR: 0
Posted (10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 12015 times:

I am wondering what everyone's thoughts are about what's next for B6, AS, VX, and F9 after AA/US merge? AA and US will be busy working on their merger (and US finishing their last one), so what's next for the remaining smaller airlines?

I am not saying there should be any more mergers, or will be. I know many here think there have been too many already. I am interested in what everyone thinks. Even if the DOJ was not successful in blocking AA/US, they did effectively serve notice that any future merger attempts will not be easy or without concessions, at least until after 2016. But if there were it could get interesting.

B6 - The only legacy partner I could see for B6, unless things drastically change, would be AA. I doubt UA would want to set up a competing hub across the Hudson (or be allowed to). The DOJ would never allow DL/B6 with DL big at JFK and LGA. I would expect to see more cooperation (not saying merger) between AA and B6 but I could be wrong.

AS - DL seems to make the most sense reading posts here. But as some have mentioned, DL's build up in SEA will not help them with the DOJ. Normally I would think AA would have something to say about AS/DL, but they are busy with US for the time being.

VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

Maybe no more future tie ups can happen without a distribution of assets among different carriers. And I do not agree with those who have warned that AA/US will lead to 1 or 2 legacy carriers in the future. I do not see any way the DOJ or the EU would ever allow it and it would cause a major realignment among global alliances.

Cheers.

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:47:35]

[Edited 2013-11-12 23:49:20]

89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 682 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 11858 times:

Quoting user444555 (Thread starter):
VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

F9 will either be the ULCC competition for NK or they'll be happily married in the next few years.

VX has synergies with B6.


User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 11571 times:

Predictions

VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6

F9 gets whipped into shape by Franke. Lower costs than NK, and gives them serious competition. The two groups will be whipsawed against each other to maintain low costs. "Take this concession or else the other guys will beat us!" Investors profit.

AS plugs along on their own, more and more pressure from DL finances start to slip, becomes open to merger in 3-5years



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User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 3, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 11502 times:

None of them will merge. not in the next 10 years.


B6 will probs expand with some long-haul airframes (I'm smelling an A350 order)

F9 will continue to go down the ULCC route.

AS....they're AS. they do what they're doing right already.

VX....hell idk what they're doing anymore. no comment.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4058 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 11419 times:

The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base.

DL, UA and AA are all now roughly the same size. AS+DL will again skew everything the way they originally did merging with NW.


User currently offlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 11197 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 3):

If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

[Edited 2013-11-13 08:39:30]


40 Flights/39,010 Miles Flown
User currently onlinewilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 11026 times:

I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 356 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 10928 times:

Quoting william (Reply 6):
I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

I don't think we will see another attempt until after 2016. At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS. It will be interesting to see if AA and B6 start doing more. I think they just earn miles now and don't codeshare. If AA thinks they can continue some sort of partnership with B6 at JFK and not hurt their PHL ops, it will be interesting to see what happens.

AA will have to keep JFK service levels consistent because of the settlement, so they might be able to use some domestic feed for their Intl ops.


User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3076 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 10865 times:

Quoting user444555 (Reply 7):
At that time DL might have competition from AA if they try anything with AS.

I've always said that I think it was a brilliant move by AS to lock in both AA and DL as significant partners if their long-term desire is to remain independent. One is not likely to want AS to be taken over by the other, and loss of either code share and connection revenue hurts AS's business model. Brilliant.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 576 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10834 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN

Correct.

JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

PS We start Lima next week


User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6474 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10823 times:

I believe you will see DL and AS forming a partnership with each airline retaining its own individuality. This would be like AF/KL

User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 356 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10780 times:

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
PS We start Lima next week

Good luck on the new route.


User currently offlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10772 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.


User currently offlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10740 times:

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):

Where from? FLL? MCO?



40 Flights/39,010 Miles Flown
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3076 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10719 times:

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13):
Yes, because it is the frequent flyer base of a regional airline that will stop a merger. :rolleyes:

AS isn't a "regional" airline. In case you having noticed they are one of the majors and serve everything from OME to FLL to BOS to MEX to LIH to YYC. That doesn't sound too regional to me.

AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.

Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 576 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10646 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 14):
Where from? FLL? MCO?

FLL-LIM 1x Daily


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4599 posts, RR: 22
Reply 16, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 10518 times:

My personal opinion is that the mergers are done for now. The next step will be a new crop of startups after things settle down a bit and AA/US finish consolidating. At least we can hope for competitive reasons.

User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10388 times:

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
JetBlue's focus is ALL of North and South America

Except Canada  



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User currently offlineredzeppelin From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 597 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10331 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

This is just me thinking out loud, but B6 needs to set something up with Porter for Canada. It just seems like a logical match to me. Especially if Porter wants to grow and expand their network with the C-Series, it seems like they might need a good trans-border partner.



Flown: DL,OS,NZ,UN,VV,NW,AA,UA,HP,TZ,AS,AF,KL,SK,WS,AZ,OK; op by OO,MQ,XJ,9E,G7,EV,QX,RP
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10288 times:

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 19):

I'd like to see that, and/or Westjet.



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User currently offlineB6WNQX From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 245 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 10168 times:

Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.


User currently offlinewerdywerd From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 576 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10074 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 18):
Except Canada

Hmmmmm Don't be so sure. Never know what the future holds! Anything is possible  


User currently offlineripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1168 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10013 times:

AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging
F9 is starting to look more and more like NK and wouldn't surprise me if they joined up.
Everyone thinks that DL is just going to swoop in and force AS to do this n that I don't see that happening they are going to force AS in a hole where they will wake the sleeping giant that they will regret.


User currently offlineplanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3527 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 9956 times:

It's possible that in 5-10 years, after the US/AA merger is complete and after one of F9 or VX is combined with another carrier or actually is gone, we will be in the same position the airline industry was during the mid 90s ... financial success and booming profit potential.

And with that comes ... new entrants. And so the cycle will begin anew.



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineTSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 3068 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10151 times:

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21):
Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

That sounds like a good plan to me. I raised that possibility in one of the hundreds of "who is going to merge with whom next?" threads here, and if I recall correctly the main objection was that B6 and AS have very different corporate cultures and might not mesh as well in reality as it seems they would on paper. Still, this is a different thread and other objections or possible benefits might be enumerated that weren't mentioned before.



Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
User currently offlineCloneof501 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (10 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 9976 times:

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 21):

Why doesn't B6 and AS merge like AF/KL. One corporate but two airlines. They can cooperate on buying power and corporate wide but each serving their niche. They currently both focus on their own side of the country primarily, but then they could codeshare with eachother system wide providing access to eachother's vast coastal networks.

Just throwing out a dream out their as I fly both almost exclusively.

From a financial perspective, the whole point of merging is to achieve synergies and eliminate a competitor. Seeing as those two serve entirely different niches and markets (for the most part), there's really a weak case for a merger, and combining them under a parent company won't really achieve anything.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the AF/KL separation due to foreign ownership rules in the EU?


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 26, posted (10 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8369 times:

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
As for AS, any merger would be blocked by the DOJ/DOT, it would wreak havoc on the PNW-PDX and ANC as well as all or most of the Intra-Alaska service would be pulled unless it is EAS. LAX would be folded into DLs exsisting ops, and SEA would become a new DL hub. But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.

I wonder if AS somehow suffers a catastrophic failure a la PA, what would happen?

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
If B6 got A350s, or even A330s, we would see GRU/GIG/LIM/SCL and codesharing with azul before LHR/CDG/NRT/ICN

Yep. that's true. But I hope they indeed to go long-haul.

They should call their long haul ops "Deep Blue" or something and have a plane named "Over the blue"  
Quoting william (Reply 6):
I agree, the DOJ will have no stomach for more mergers and have sent the message loud and clear.

Yep. We're done with mergers until more airlines start popping up.

Quoting werdywerd (Reply 9):
PS We start Lima next week
Quoting werdywerd (Reply 16):
FLL-LIM 1x Daily

Excellent choice! Good luck~ 



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineplanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3527 posts, RR: 5
Reply 27, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8089 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 27):
Yep. We're done with mergers until more airlines start popping up.

I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8066 times:

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 13):
Keep Delta My Delta was indeed a group of employees, retirees, customers, etc. that helped to fend off US Airways, but in the end, the financials and legalese (which are what REALLY matters, not the happy-go-lucky feelings of some customers who MIGHT not even be profitable to the carrier) are what will drive a merger.

Also, remember that US was attempting a hostile takeover of DL, which triggered the Keep Delta My Delta campaign.

Whatever happens, we will not see DL attempting a hostile takeover of AS. It will be a friendly, consensual deal and will have the full support of both airlines' respective Boards of Directors. And IMO, I do not believe that it will take 3-5 years for this to all materialize.


User currently offlineNYCAdvantage From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 355 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7781 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 29):
Whatever happens, we will not see DL attempting a hostile takeover of AS. It will be a friendly, consensual deal and will have the full support of both airlines' respective Boards of Directors. And IMO, I do not believe that it will take 3-5 years for this to all materialize.

  
how much will the DOJ objects to it, I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of having a domestic and international mega hub in their back yard.

the question is how many routes overlap between them and how will that merger hurt domestic competition?
I think Delta has been laying out the fundaments already in Japan with the NRT-HND argument, and since Japan is not playing ball with them and been the only one without a partner there, Delta will say that in order to compete in the Pacific they need this deal to go thru.
Will the DOJ buy it?


User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 3076 posts, RR: 7
Reply 30, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7824 times:

Quoting NYCAdvantage (Reply 30):
I don't know, but as long as it's not a hostile takeover I think that Seattle will see the big potential of having a domestic and international mega hub in their back yard.

Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP. Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR? Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX. And I'm quite sure that DL wouldn't want to continue to serve all those cities in Alaska. Not only that, but DL's frequent flier redemption (or lack there of) is a total scam.


User currently offlineNYCAdvantage From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 355 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 7718 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 31):
Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat.

I can a agree with you, but in the most recent merger there were measures taken by the DOJ to hold the inevitable at least for 3 years, that said Delta may have to obey by the same or even stronger measures taken against them in order to let the deal pass.
We all know, no mater how great or bad the merger is there will always be winners and losers.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25268 posts, RR: 85
Reply 32, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7665 times:
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Quoting planespotting (Reply 28):
I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).

Hmmm? Sorry, I'm not sure I understand what you mean.

Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the end of the month. No bankruptcy proceeding was involved.

  

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinesrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 33, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 7594 times:

Once the AA/US merger closes, that will close the book on any major mergers in the airline industry. Any additional consolidation will be among the smaller carriers. F9+NK is an intriguing possibility, but what about F9+G4? Using AF/KL as a model, what about a corporate tie-up between Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines?

JetBlue is likely to go it alone as they really don't have a need to merge with anyone and depending on the outcome of the divestitures the AA/US merger will require, they could be sitting pretty on the East Coast.


User currently offlineAS737MAX From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 34, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7447 times:

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Seattle isn't that stupid. Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP. Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR? Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX. And I'm quite sure that DL wouldn't want to continue to serve all those cities in Alaska. Not only that, but DL's frequent flier redemption (or lack there of) is a total scam.

Absolutely correct. Here is my assumed breakdown if AS and DL Merged (Critique if needed)

Horizon:

-Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops for years-who do they sell/lease them too? UA? WS? AC? PD?
-All or most QX employees laid off

Skywest:

Rolled into DLs existing ops

Alaska:

737-400s retired immediately, as well as the 5 combis and the lone full freighter, 737-700, -800, and -900s kept.
DL isn't going to want to fly intra-Alaska, nor PDX/SEA-Hawaii (Save for SEA-HNL), and secondary airports would lose service aswell-ONT, BUR, SNA, OAK. AS is the primary carrier as well to Idaho and Montana. Why would DL want to serve BZN or MSO or BIL or BOI from SEA? They would just reroute you through SLC. If this merger was to go through, 75% of the PNW and Alaska would lose service. It would be fought much harder than AA/US. It's always happened- CO, NW, PA, TW, and sure AA has to maintain the hub levels at CLT, PHX, and PHL for 3 years, after that they are free to do what they want. But if AS went away, it would be a tremendous blow to the FF base as well as the Pacific Northwest.

Does anyone know how much EAS AS flies in Alaska?



40 Flights/39,010 Miles Flown
User currently offlineaerohottie From Australia, joined Mar 2004, 802 posts, RR: 3
Reply 35, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7339 times:

I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination.
Or even a 4-way with NK included.

All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet on order, and largely dont overlap very much (except for NK and B6 florida/carribean ops).



What?
User currently offlinemhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 682 posts, RR: 1
Reply 36, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7313 times:

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 35):
I would love to see a 3-way B6-VX-F9 combination.
Or even a 4-way with NK included.

All are A320 family operators, with a good size replacement fleet on order, and largely dont overlap very much (except for NK and B6 florida/carribean ops).

That would be the biggest disaster in aviation history of all time!


User currently offlinesuperjeff From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 234 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 7170 times:
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Quoting Cloneof501 (Reply 25):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the AF/KL separation due to foreign ownership rules in the EU?

Consider yourself corrected. it is due to international treaties. If AF/KL were combined, then they would have to abide by
the international treaties between France (if AF) or The Netherlands (if KL) for international services.
This means they could lose considerable route authority.


User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6994 times:

Quoting srbmod (Reply 33):
Using AF/KL as a model, what about a corporate tie-up between Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines?

You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of those airlines in the marketplace. If you had any friends who work for those airlines who could tell you the insiders view, you would never make such a comment. Yes, AF and KL each have scores of "other" issues, but that is for another discussion. Please tell me how placing two airlines with distinctly different cultures, brands and identities under one corporate umbrella makes sense? In this industry, cost savings and (as much as I hate to use the word) synergies differentiate successful deals from the failures. Thus far AF/KL under one parent group is a failure. The verdict is still out on whether this corporate model will survive within the airline industry.


User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9426 posts, RR: 14
Reply 39, posted (10 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6923 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):

DL/UA are close. AA is going to be pretty big
by fleet AA is only about 100 aircraft smaller than DL....add in ~300-400 airplanes at US.......

Its hard to see just how things will shake out, but unless AA cuts a ton of capacity(which i don't think they will) I'm not sure if DL/AS would even be large than AA/US.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):

AS737MAX does have a good point though. AS has built brand loyalty that helps their business model. DL would likely lose much of that. When a faceless large company buys out your hometown loyal favorite and then likely guts many of the routes, that wouldn't do much for brand loyalty among AS's customer base.

.....Oh good night.
Just like DL is going to burn money in Asia because no one "likes" Delta, Deportland!!!, Its not NW!

This is said every single time, EVERY time, some airline buys some other airline. In this day in age every AS flyer knows who Delta is.......and on top of that its not like they have a place to go. If you need to fly SEA-SAN who are you flying without stopping (and likely a higher fare)?
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.

most people don't buy tickets based on butt hurt. Fares, convenience, FF miles and maybe product are generally what brings people in.


Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Many of AS's non-stop routes from SEA would be cut in a heartbeat. Why keep flying non-stops when you can route traffic through SLC and MSP

Because Delta can look at a map? What good does flying SEA-HKG do if they cut all the feed? You think they can compete with United if they force PAX to fly BOS-SLC-SEA-HKG? come on man.
Why do you think DL is so dependent on AS now? think about it.......

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Why continue to serve the likes of SNA, ONT, SJC and BUR?

feed for the Asia flights..... because its makes money.....
Again, They cant compete with United if they are forcing 2-3 stops when UA offers 1-stops.
you can pretty much bet that if UA has flights to SFO(which they do to all those markets minus SJC) then DL will from SEA. OAK/SJC are to large not to be safe.

and if DL adds more flying to SEA I fully expect SJC/OAK to be on the short list (along with PHX)

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 30):
Why fly SEA and PDX non-stops to LIH, OGG and KOA when you can route through LAX.

why not fly it? Its not like Delta has to much capacity to OGG/LIH/KOA. They don't fly to them more than what they do because they simply don't have a place to fly it from. LAX has a pretty large amount of capacity to all the three markets and SLC is longer....thus cost more. So where else can they fly to the outer markets from? Hell ATL is the only place they can seem to make HNL work from outside of the west.....

SEA-OGG/LIH/KOA can be done with 739s or 757s and likely makes a good amount of money.

The Aloha type flying AS does would be gone. HA would be thankful, but that reduced capacity would make an even stronger case for SEA-Hawaii.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
AS is the primary carrier as well to Idaho and Montana. Why would DL want to serve BZN or MSO or BIL or BOI from SEA?

feed?

Better question, why wouldn't they?


Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
-Soon to be 51 Q400s, DL hasn't flown turboprops for years-who do they sell/lease them too? UA? WS? AC? PD?

you or I can't answer this. Delta likes Jets, no question about it
but they can't just do "anything" they want. They have to get an agreement with DALPA on scope before anything can be done. Will DALPA allow them to increase the fleet if they are props vs jets? will DALPA do like NW and just roll the number into the limits? will DALPA say no to any more large RJ flying beyond the current scope?

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
Rolled into DLs existing ops

maybe. explained above

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
737-400s retired immediately, as well as the 5 combis and the lone full freighter, 737-700, -800, and -900s kept.

nothing would go "immediately"
I would assume a small 737 or 320 order to replace the 734s, but who knows? its not like Delta parks airplanes just because.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 34):
DL isn't going to want to fly intra-Alaska,

The EAS markets they have no choice.
The rest....well do you (or anyone) have any hard data that suggest it would be a money loser for DL? no one has ever proved this.

The P2P west coast stuff i agree, its gone, Portland maybe... but Seattle is safe. With Delta's fleet they would likely be able to upgrade current routes, and add new flying with the 76 seaters and other aircraft types. It would also, IMO, give a nice boost to the TPAC flying and allow for more places and bigger aircraft.



As said by Delta's leaders on the Q3 call. Seattle, LA, and Salt Lake (even Minneapolis) have nothing to do with each other. All have a key roll in the network. Capacity isn't coming from SLC to grow SEA. SEA isn't going to get cut for SLC.
Delta wants to replicate more of a United type network out west. Salt lake simply isn't going to be a gate way to Asia and Seattle isn't going to be able to become Delta's key west coast gateway without feed and the corporate market in SEA.

by comparison Delta would have ~ 150 flights in LAX, ~300 flights in SEA and ~300 flights in SLC.

Having said all of that, Delta is limited by space in the two places it really wants to grow (LAX/SEA) so something is going to happen.



yep.
User currently offlinesrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 40, posted (10 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 6468 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 38):
You have no idea what an absolute total and complete disaster the AF/KL corporate structure is and how terribly it is hurting the competitiveness of those airlines in the marketplace. If you had any friends who work for those airlines who could tell you the insiders view, you would never make such a comment. Yes, AF and KL each have scores of "other" issues, but that is for another discussion. Please tell me how placing two airlines with distinctly different cultures, brands and identities under one corporate umbrella makes sense? In this industry, cost savings and (as much as I hate to use the word) synergies differentiate successful deals from the failures. Thus far AF/KL under one parent group is a failure. The verdict is still out on whether this corporate model will survive within the airline industry.

You're right, I have no idea, and frankly, the "complete disaster" you're making vague references to is not relevant to the discussion, as there are plenty of cases in which multiple airlines have been under the same corporate umbrella. Pretty much the entire regional airline industry are owned by a handful of holding companies. Just because things may not be going smoothly at AF/KL doesn't mean that would happen if AS and HA were to be under a similar corporate umbrella.


User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2389 posts, RR: 2
Reply 41, posted (10 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 6400 times:

The staus quo is hard to maintain, praticularly in a stagnent economic environment when each company is looking for growth. So, the following could happen:

The big four start gobbling up the smaller guys. And yes, I don't see the DOJ doing anything because the small guys are just too small.

The big four combine to the big two. Big issues with this.

Smaller airlines merge to form a bigger network to compete with the Big 4. And the merged airlines may/ may not look anything like they look today as far as routes/hubs etc.

The Big Four start filling out areas where they may not be strong, or have room to grow, poaching on others territory. Some of this is happening now with DL in the Northwest.

There could be other ways to consolidate or grow as well.

What I do believe: that if we think everything will be stagnent for the next five or so years, we will probably be wrong.


User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 356 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (10 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 6259 times:

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 41):
The big four combine to the big two. Big issues with this.

I definitely don't see this in the next 5 years or 50. The DOJ, even a Republican DOJ, would have major issues with this, especially due to the slot controlled airports in the Northeast. One of the Big 3 alliances would lose a US member if this happened, and even if the DOJ allowed it, BA, LH, or AF/KL, whoever stood to lose, would certainly enlist the help of the EU to block any such merger or impose a poison pill size list of conditions.

I guess two of the alliances could merge but I definitely see the EU having a problem with that. They went easy on AA/US, because they only have AB, BA, and IB as major EU members imo. When you look at the long list of * and SKYteam members in the EU, there would be issues and the other remaining alliance would probably ask the EU to block it.

Letting AA/US, UA, or DL merge with one of the others would be like BOA and Chase merging. I don't see it happening.

Just for the heck of it, if UA and DL merged, that would make them the largest carrier at LGA and EWR, and #2 at JFK at current levels. They would pretty much dominate all major NYC airports. AA and UA? Almost as many problems in NYC, but throw in DCA/IAD, ORD, LAX, and they would be the largest carriers at DFW and IAH.

Even if this were allowed, I don't see why the airlines would do this. And this is something I have not seen raised yet. You could argue that maybe an airline would like to be the biggest carrier at all major airports in NYC with the huge market there, but why would an airline want to have huge hubs at DFW and IAH? CLT and ATL? At some point the overlap would start to be problematic and the return on investment, imo, would decrease.

This was one of the problems when AA had hubs in ORD and STL. Even if a mega-merger were allowed, I don't see a financially compelling reason for it considering the enormous capital investments a hub requires.

I am sure DL would like to buy AS, and maybe AA can look at B6 after they get this merger done. But with PHL so close even that might not make sense if it were not for the large NYC O&D market.

I read an article, I think on Motley Fool but I could be wrong, that said AA should look at HA after merging with US. They are strong where AA is a smaller player, and they have started some Asian routes.

I think the Big 4 will stay that way, but we will probably see a smaller carrier bought out at some point.


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 43, posted (10 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 6152 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):
VX IPO in late 2014-2015, within 3 years they will be acquired by B6

Good fleet integration and a complimentary route map, I think the fact B6 has no premium cabin (sans the new JFK-LAX/SFO) flights to compete with AA on, the corporate climates are not the same, and neither is the service level. B6 is good don't get me wrong, VX just exceeds that of B6 at this time, IMHO.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):
The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base

100% directly in the opposite direction. You could not be any more correct, there is no chance in happy hee-haw that an AS/DL merger will get through the DOJ, creating an almost complete strangle hold on the west coast.

Quoting AS737MAX (Reply 5):
But the FFer base of Alaskas is too loyal (And I'm one of them) to allow a merger with DL. It just won't happen.
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
DL would likely lose much of that
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 14):
Personally, the day DL bought AS, I'd start flying WN and B6 up and down the coast. I suspect many others would do the same.

I'm one of these people you describe. I would fly any airline other than DL, just because I would be resentful of them taking my AS away. I don't care if that sounds selfish or childish, because it is the 100% truth. I can speak for my best friends who travel as well, and they would do the same thing, no carrier can come in and swoop up AS and not expect a mass exodus of loyal AS flyers.

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 22):
AS I see joining OW and dumping DL all together AS & either B6 or HA joining merging

Funny, I always thought AS/HA route map would look really cool. Even a 767 flying ANC-HND, and a 738 HNL-NAN.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 39):
why not fly it? Its not like Delta has to much capacity to OGG/LIH/KOA. They don't fly to them more than what they do because they simply don't have a place to fly it from.

Honestly, EVERY AS flight to the islands I have been on, has been filled to the gills, front and back. I can't see why DL would drop the routes either, other than the mass exodus of loyal AS flyers.



AA AC AQ AS BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OO OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7221 posts, RR: 8
Reply 44, posted (10 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6092 times:

Ok to re-focus my thought process.

The AA/US merger was supported by many on the grounds that without that size, neither would be able to compete with DL and UA.

So using that basis, why would we be talking about any of the LCC, UCC or whatever name we give to non-legacy carriers merging with a legacy carrier? If we need competition and the size of the competitors must be in the range of AA, UA and DL, the only topic of discussion should be all those carriers merging to present a viable competitor?
We have determined that the industry must have carriers of a certain size to be financially viable and provide legitimate competition, unless we just used those words to sell the latest consolidation.

My suggestion is that all the other carriers come together under a new alliance to provide the size needed to compete in the new industry standard. No merger, a metal free alliance, interline within the alliance, a leasing company to purchase a/c from the OEM's in bulk - enough of them use a/c from each OEM to make that financially viable -, IROPS aggreements, etc. etc.

If we look at the traffic that is carried by carriers not named AA, DL or UA, is that sufficient enough to provide a competitor of equivalent size? Based on our theory, as long as they are divided, the big three can do whatever they want, when they want and can choose to ignore or respond to these airlines, which means that they are not an effective competitor. Do we want industry wide competition of route competition?

Will it happen, well if we look at the consolidation taking place among the regional's at the ownership level, it certainely is possible, especially if the current owners and creators of these airlines had a vision to provide a service to the public which was not wrapped up under the name of AA, UA and DL.

Just a thought


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 45, posted (10 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 6000 times:

Quoting planespotting (Reply 27):
I think a bankruptcy-based acquisition with an airline that would just shut down completely if it weren't acquired could still happen (F9 I'm looking at you).

They're going to stay with private equity groups ....for a loooooooooooong time. No mergers with airlines that I can see.

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
Frontier has already been acquired by Indigo Partners (ex-Spirit), in a deal that closes at the end of the month. No bankruptcy proceeding was involved.

Mariner- not judging your F9 expertise, but these people will turn F9 into a profit and sell them off real quickly. I see F9 jumping around many different private equity firms for as long as I can see....I believe my dad is talking with one of those firms who is actually interested in buying it from Indigo but I cannot say anything more (or rather, he can't because of NDAs   ) but they are gonna bounce around a bit.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25268 posts, RR: 85
Reply 46, posted (10 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 5822 times:
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Quoting PHX787 (Reply 45):
Mariner- not judging your F9 expertise, but these people will turn F9 into a profit and sell them off real quickly.

Sure, they will, but not that quickly.

The real money, the big stuff, is selling it to the public, the Initial Public Offering, the IPO. That's when Indigo and Oaktree made their money in Spirit and Soros made his money in JetBlue.

Why should William Franke of Indigo sell Frontier to your dad for 10% profit on his money when he can get 100% or more with the IPO?

mariner

[Edited 2013-11-17 09:33:58]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (10 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5761 times:

Quoting srbmod (Reply 40):
Pretty much the entire regional airline industry are owned by a handful of holding companies. Just because things may not be going smoothly at AF/KL doesn't mean that would happen if AS and HA were to be under a similar corporate umbrella.

First, although HA and AS are not what anyone would call global airlines, they are not exactly regional airlines either by most peoples definition.

Second, the vast majority of the regional airline industry relies upon their major airline partners who purchase and market their capacity to perform the sales and corporate functions. The regionals to which you refer don't perform those functions for themselves.

It is very different when you speak of taking two airlines like AS and HA (or AF/KL) and placing them together under one holding company. What benefit is there to having and maintaining two corporate headquarters, duplicated corporate/management/sales/operations staff, separate IT infrastructures, two operating certificates, two web sites, separate identities, different cultures? Under this type of arrangement, no significant benefits will be realized.

Again using AF/KL as an example, they would be a stronger and very different airline in the global marketplace if they had simply done a full blown merger from the beginning. Looking at the AF/KL of today, its as if they've been merely dating since May, 2004.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6174 posts, RR: 2
Reply 48, posted (10 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 5705 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):
I'm one of these people you describe. I would fly any airline other than DL, just because I would be resentful of them taking my AS away.

I recall this very same view from some very loyal DEN residents with regards to F9 only a few months ago.

Alas, that view is much different.

Sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side today….but who knows how it grows tomorrow.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 49, posted (10 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 5690 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):
100% directly in the opposite direction. You could not be any more correct, there is no chance in happy hee-haw that an AS/DL merger will get through the DOJ, creating an almost complete strangle hold on the west coast.

Oh, please....... what a ridiculous statement. A combination of DL/AS would not have a "strangle hold" (your term) on the West Coast. So in your world where overly dramatic disinformation is written, I guess UA at SFO and DEN, US at PHX, AA at LAX, and point-to-point WN routes all over the West Coast means absolutely nothing?

A combined DL/AS would not have anything more than a fortress hub at SEA, something which AS already has today. DL brings the added benefits of new international service (much of which SEA would not otherwise enjoy), among other things.


User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4567 posts, RR: 18
Reply 50, posted (10 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 5675 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 4):
The idea that AS can now easily merge with DL is off base.

DL, UA and AA are all now roughly the same size. AS+DL will again skew everything the way they originally did merging with NW.

To use the unsound logic used by others in regard to the AA/US merger... the DOJ has to allow a DL/AS merger since they allowed the US/AA merger. Personally I think these mergers should be undone going all the way back to the DL/NW merger. They have been terrible for consumers. I am completely opposed to merging out accountability and that is all these mergers have done.

These mergers were never about equal size. These mergers were all about eliminating choices for consumers. Merging out another choice will make poor airline executives happy. A lack of competition can hide poor leadership. What I would like to know is where do we stand in the U.S. as far as competition goes compared to the industry just prior to deregulation. I have become a big supporter of the idea of reregulating industry since apparently it cannot survive in a competitive environment.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2389 posts, RR: 2
Reply 51, posted (10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 5518 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 50):
These mergers were never about equal size.

And they never are no matter what they say. They are about growth and earnings, or the illusion of growth and earnings. That is why we are not done. The four big airlines will have to show consistent and sustained growth year after year. When this becomes harder they will start looking around to buy some growth and earnings. That is when AS, HA, B6 and everyone available will be in the cross hairs. And the government will go along. Other justifications will be brought forward as to why this is good for everyone, and it will be done. The status quo never prevails in business.


User currently offlineuser444555 From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 356 posts, RR: 0
Reply 52, posted (10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 5439 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 50):
To use the unsound logic used by others in regard to the AA/US merger... the DOJ has to allow a DL/AS merger since they allowed the US/AA merger. Personally I think these mergers should be undone going all the way back to the DL/NW merger. They have been terrible for consumers. I am completely opposed to merging out accountability and that is all these mergers have done.

I think most people who made that argument, myself included, made it because DL and UA were much bigger and in my case, I thought it would be difficult for AA and US to compete. To leave that part out, does not accurately represent that opinion. Most of the people making this argument with me did not say that post AA/US, we should expect a UA/DL or other legacy combination. As I recall most of us were saying the opposite and that is we believe this will be the last big legacy merger. It seemed to be mostly people who were against the merger who said AA/US would lead to another legacy merger.



Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 51):
And they never are no matter what they say. They are about growth and earnings, or the illusion of growth and earnings. That is why we are not done. The four big airlines will have to show consistent and sustained growth year after year. When this becomes harder they will start looking around to buy some growth and earnings. That is when AS, HA, B6 and everyone available will be in the cross hairs. And the government will go along. Other justifications will be brought forward as to why this is good for everyone, and it will be done. The status quo never prevails in business.
UA/CO sailed through without much except some last minute voluntary concessions. No suit was filed. AA and US were sued by the DOJ and several states. Concessions were extracted even at LGA where a combined AA/US will be number 2. Nobody knows how future administrations will view merger attempts, but I think they will get harder and more costly instead of easier and cheaper. I think a legacy will make a play for AS or even B6, but the Big 4 (including WN) will stay that way for a while imo.

[Edited 2013-11-17 13:38:38]

User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 53, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5353 times:

Quoting user444555 (Reply 52):
I think a legacy will make a play for AS or even B6, but the Big 4 (including WN) will stay that way for a while imo.

How about WN making a play for B6 and AS? It would put them on the same level as AA/UA/DL as far as market share.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2...rket-share-of-leading-us-airlines/



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4567 posts, RR: 18
Reply 54, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5329 times:

So now that we have these mega carriers what do we do when one of them ends up in financial trouble? I say no way on earth do they get a cent of bailout money. At this point the few remaining major carriers must be allowed to fail. Eventually it will happen. The problem with all the anti-competitive consolidation is that when someone fails it will cause serious damage to the industry. Think back to when US was about to go under after living in bankruptcy. The industry could have absorbed the loss. But now what? The government has created an enormous future problem by allowing these mergers. Let them fail. The government and the industry must learn a painful lesson. Bailouts and mergers just allows companies to dodge responsibility.


Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11637 posts, RR: 61
Reply 55, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5368 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 53):
How about WN making a play for B6 and AS? It would put them on the same level as AA/UA/DL as far as market share.

Southwest doesn't need to buy market share. Southwest bought AirTran to eliminate a competitor and buy access into the last remaining major U.S. market from which it was absent (ATL). Now, as Southwest is still digesting the last acquisition, there is really no compelling strategic or economic reason for Southwest to buy another airline.

The critical basis upon with all four of America's national airlines - AA, Delta, Southwest and United - will compete is network breadth and scope. Put another way: the ability to generally get just about everybody where they want to go relatively conveniently. All four are now on a relatively equal footing in the sense that they all now have comprehensive, nationwide networks with a constellation of large, powerful hubs with which to connect virtually any two major markets in the country with 1 stop or less.

At this point, the competitive equilibrium in the U.S. domestic air travel market will be largely set. Four nationwide airlines will provide broad access to every large market in the country, plus also to just about every mid-size market (AA, Delta and United) and globally to international markets (AA, Delta and United, plus soon Southwest in some cases). The nation's remaining airlines will either compete based on regional density and product (Alaska, and to a certain extent JetBlue) or based purely on price (Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant). The vast majority of air travelers in the U.S. will still have at least 3-4 competing nonstop or 1-stop options in their desired city pair. That seems like a relatively healthy domestic market to me.


User currently offlineAirFRNT From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 56, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5369 times:

Quoting user444555 (Thread starter):
VX and F9 - Both of these have overlaps with UA and their LCC business models clash with most of the legacies. I don't see WN being interested, and these carriers may remain the independent LCC competition the DOJ is looking for.

As many others have noted - VX and F9 are heading in opposite directions. F9 is going to be a large scale ULCC player - bear in mind - they are already larger Spirit Airlines, and they have a ginormous NEO order on tap.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 45):

Mariner- not judging your F9 expertise, but these people will turn F9 into a profit and sell them off real quickly. I see F9 jumping around many different private equity firms for as long as I can see....I believe my dad is talking with one of those firms who is actually interested in buying it from Indigo but I cannot say anything more (or rather, he can't because of NDAs   ) but they are gonna bounce around a bit.

Not a chance. These guys are in for the IPO game. That's part of the reason they are so focused on ownership interest. IPO allows for a huge valuation for the business - more then they could sell for - without relinquishing operational control. You may see other partners jump in to capitalize/re-capitalize the firm, but Indigo is in the drivers seat for a while.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11637 posts, RR: 61
Reply 57, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5338 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 54):
So now that we have these mega carriers what do we do when one of them ends up in financial trouble?

They go out of business, the market is temporarily in turmoil, and then the market adjusts. It works that way in basically every other industry except banking.

Quoting Indy (Reply 54):
I say no way on earth do they get a cent of bailout money. At this point the few remaining major carriers must be allowed to fail.

Agreed. These airlines should never get bailout money. But that's the thing. These airliner are no longer going to be in such a precarious and fragile financial state that some of them desperately require bailouts when disruptions and dislocations take place.

Quoting Indy (Reply 54):
The problem with all the anti-competitive consolidation is that when someone fails it will cause serious damage to the industry.

Perhaps, but you optimize for the most likely and most common scenario, not the least likely worst case. So if one of these four megacarriers goes out of business once every 20 years, then you're essentially allowing an industry to generate returns for shareholders for 19 years out of 20 and then get turned upside down in 1 year out of 20. That sounds reasonable to me.

[Edited 2013-11-17 14:44:49]

User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3148 posts, RR: 1
Reply 58, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5323 times:

Because gas is an airlines most used commodity I'd like to see F9, NK and maybe Sun Country buy a fuel farm; similar to what DL did. Outside of hedging steady fuel prices would certainly help the bottom line.


Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5288 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 55):
Southwest doesn't need to buy market share. Southwest bought AirTran to eliminate a competitor and buy access into the last remaining major U.S. market from which it was absent (ATL).

And how about NYC?



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11637 posts, RR: 61
Reply 60, posted (10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5283 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 59):
And how about NYC?

How about it?

Southwest now flies to three airports in the NYC metro area - LGA, EWR and ISP. And by the looks of it, Southwest is about to get bigger at at least one of those airports (LGA).

Nonetheless, you can't win everywhere. NYC is a market where Southwest is relatively weaker, but that probably has as much to do with the huge presence of B6 in the market as anything else. But so it goes. United's network is quite weak in the southeastern U.S. because the region's only two viable hubs (ATL and CLT) are already spoken for. Same with AA in the Rockies - the only two viable hubs (DEN and SLC) are taken. And the same with Delta in the south-central U.S., where the only two viable hubs (DFW and IAH) are already taken. It happens.

Southwest is so huge in so many places, and still offers a strong enough presence in NYC, that I'm sure they'll be just fine ...


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3468 posts, RR: 0
Reply 61, posted (10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5225 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 2):
AS plugs along on their own, more and more pressure from DL finances start to slip, becomes open to merger in 3-5years

The government will never let AS+DL merge in the next 10 years. Delta wouldn't support all those small Alaska communities or PDX or the secondary markets like OAK, SJC, SAN point to point flying. You would see politicians protest a merger like we've never seen before. It just wont be allowed to happen. Delta got northwest and will shut down CVG and MEM there is no way they would be allowed to merge. Its just not a possibility for those in reality.

I think DL will bully AS into its sole domestic partner and maybe even into skyteam. I think that is all they want to make happen. Delta might be able to arm twist Alaska into exactly what they want.


I could see B6 either partnering more and closer with AA or else partnering with someone else like maybe VX or F9?. Partnerships and alliances are more important than ever we all want more destinations and to earn/redeem miles to more routes.


User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 62, posted (10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5193 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 60):
Southwest now flies to three airports in the NYC metro area - LGA, EWR and ISP. And by the looks of it, Southwest is about to get bigger at at least one of those airports (LGA).

The largest aviation market in the country and the largest domestic airline has a minuscule presence. Even if they get another half dozen LGA slots it won't make them a serious NYC competitor. They need NYC, but won't overpay for it. When B6 comes on hard times look for WN to swoop in like they did with F9, or FL, and make a run for them. We'll see if the price is right.



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinesunking737 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2045 posts, RR: 8
Reply 63, posted (10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5133 times:

Their is one airline no one talks about. The founders always wanted it that way. Its talked about from time to time here in these posts. They just love to keep a low profile and just do their thing.


Just an MSPAVGEEK
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3468 posts, RR: 0
Reply 64, posted (10 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5126 times:

WN has enough seats in the NYC market to satisfy its demand for its loyalists to fly in now, its a big step. I don't think WN wants a large FF base in the NYC market or is even trying for that. Its more serving those airports to let its loyal flyers in LUV, DEN, MDW, STL etc have a way to get to NYC than them trying to build a huge base of flyers and compete with United or Delta for a FF base.

I do think Southwest will be looking to acquire more LGA and EWR slots if they come open, but its not a major priority they need to overpay for. The NYC airports are too delayed and very competitive I think southwest is totally fine waiting for good deals and just offering enough for its loyalist to fly in. NYC is more of a D than an O for them. Its a market they just have to serve as Americas largest domestic carrier but its purely a spoke.


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 65, posted (10 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4961 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 49):
Oh, please....... what a ridiculous statement. A combination of DL/AS would not have a "strangle hold" (your term) on the West Coast. So in your world where overly dramatic disinformation is written, I guess UA at SFO and DEN, US at PHX, AA at LAX, and point-to-point WN routes all over the West Coast means absolutely nothing?

Are you paying any attention to what is happening? With DLs recent adds SEA-LAX/PDX/LAS/SFO, A combined carrier would have up to 90% market share on some routes PDX-SEA for one, SEA-LAX would be another route that would be given a very unfair market share with a merger. I'll save the unnecessary mud flinging for you. Below is another response as to why DL will not be merging with AS any time soon. DL would not retain loyal AS flyers like you may think either.

BTW, DEN is not even close to the west coast markets I'm referring to, and you know that. So why try to bring it into your example? WN does mean little up here in the Northwest.

AS has what it has on the west coast from organic growth and an excellent group of people running the carrier, what they have, they earned. It will not be given away to DL, DL will have to fight for what it wants on the west coast, and best of luck to them.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 61):
The government will never let AS+DL merge in the next 10 years. Delta wouldn't support all those small Alaska communities or PDX or the secondary markets like OAK, SJC, SAN point to point flying. You would see politicians protest a merger like we've never seen before. It just wont be allowed to happen. Delta got northwest and will shut down CVG and MEM there is no way they would be allowed to merge. Its just not a possibility for those in reality.



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User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9426 posts, RR: 14
Reply 66, posted (10 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4918 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):

Honestly, EVERY AS flight to the islands I have been on, has been filled to the gills, front and back. I can't see why DL would drop the routes either, other than the mass exodus of loyal AS flyers.

filled doesn't mean anything.
I don't see Delta wanting to keep most of AS's P2P network. I full expect those aircraft used to build up SEA more.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 43):
100% directly in the opposite direction. You could not be any more correct, there is no chance in happy hee-haw that an AS/DL merger will get through the DOJ, creating an almost complete strangle hold on the west coast.

When did Southwest, American, United and jetBlue all go under?

GMAFB.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 65):
A combined carrier would have up to 90% market share on some routes PDX-SEA for one,

......ugh.....
Right now how much market share does AS have on the route?

So basically, its ok for AS/QX to own the route now, but wouldn't be ok in the future simply because the name on the airplane?

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 65):
SEA-LAX would be another route that would be given a very unfair market share with a merger.

Not at all. LAX(or area airports) have 6 carriers flying to SEA. A DL/AS merger would, for sure, cause AA to add LAX-SEA. That effectively replaces AS. On top of that I could also see WN trying to get into the market.

DL/AS would cause changes in LAX-SEA/PDX. I would expect to see the number of flights reduced and larger aircraft types added(no to little RJs, most 737s and 757s.)



yep.
User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 67, posted (10 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4896 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 65):
DL would not retain loyal AS flyers like you may think either.

No one ever said DL would retain the loyal AS flyers. Contrary to popular belief, passengers and frequent flyers are not acquired in a merger. Airlines get and retain passengers and earn their loyalty by consistently running a top tier operation and by offering products and services people want at prices they are willing to pay. Right now DL is doing a far better job of that than most. I have no illusions that every single AS frequent flyer will stay with DL if there is ever a DL/AS merger, but I strongly believe that DL will earn their business if a merger were to ever come to pass. I also believe that the vast majority of loyal AS flyers would then choose to stay with DL because it would be in their interest to do so.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 65):
Are you paying any attention to what is happening?

Yes, of course I am paying attention.

Hear that sound? That is the consumer, and they are speaking very loudly.


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3409 posts, RR: 4
Reply 68, posted (10 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4738 times:

Quoting flyby519 (Reply 53):
How about WN making a play for B6 and AS? It would put them on the same level as AA/UA/DL as far as market share.

AS is *possible* but unlikely unless AS heads into bankruptcy. The only things AS has that WN can't do right this second is the small alaska routes and Horizon's sub-brand/commuter role. DOT and DOJ approval would be... rather unlikely while AS is viable.

B6 has to be tempting as it would open up the east coast even more, but again to get past regulators it would have to be dead as a standalone.

Now... AS and B6 I could see getting past the regulators even if it makes literaly no sense right now. The value in both brands is the focus on their regional markets and the loyalty that brings. Merging would both ruin the focus and destroy the loyalty, leaving the merged carrier no better off in customers eyes than any other "faceless" major, yet no overall market power.

Quoting commavia (Reply 60):
Nonetheless, you can't win everywhere. NYC is a market where Southwest is relatively weaker

WN expanded into the market late and found themselves largely locked out of the major airports. Its nice and fine to want to expand, but if there is no gates or slots at most of the airports in the region its a bit tough.

Quoting commavia (Reply 55):
Southwest doesn't need to buy market share

Exactly. WN has slowed its growth since 9/11 to nearly nothing. New markets with a near static fleet mean old markets get cut, and national marketshare is close to static also.

Now if WN starts hoovering up 30-40 738max a year.... expect that marketshare to start climbing again.


User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2389 posts, RR: 2
Reply 69, posted (10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 4502 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 55):
The vast majority of air travelers in the U.S. will still have at least 3-4 competing nonstop or 1-stop options in their desired city pair. That seems like a relatively healthy domestic market to me.

Yes, that would be a healthy domestic market. But, competition being what it is, those three to four airlines will compete.
The airline that can not sustain market share growth--and with competition it is difficult for all to do that--will need to look around to buy that revenue/earnings growth. That is when the little guys will start to feel like Little Red Riding Hoods.

Most disagree, but I think DL is already planning for this and thus you have the AS tussle. Time will tell.


User currently offlineHiFlyerAS From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 958 posts, RR: 2
Reply 70, posted (10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 4483 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 55):
Now, as Southwest is still digesting the last acquisition, there is really no compelling strategic or economic reason for Southwest to buy another airline.
Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 68):
AS is *possible* but unlikely unless AS heads into bankruptcy. The only things AS has that WN can't do right this second is the small alaska routes and Horizon's sub-brand/commuter role. DOT and DOJ approval would be... rather unlikely while AS is viable.

WN would jump on AS due to their Hawaii routes and West Coast dominance but both airlines have repeatedly said that organic growth, not mergers, is their long-term plan. I think a WN-AS tieup would be something to fear...huge US domestic coverage, Mexico, Hawaii, Alaska....throw in some new transcon non-stops and you've got probably THE dominant carrier in North America. AA, DL and UA would all wet their pants.


User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 71, posted (10 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 4303 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
filled doesn't mean anything.

It does for AS, you don't have 1.4 billion dollars in the bank by flying low yielding routes.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
When did Southwest, American, United and jetBlue all go under?

These are not the large players up and down the west coast.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
On top of that I could also see WN trying to get into the market.

They have not done so since they picked up Morris Air, why would they now drop into an over saturated market years later?

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 66):
So basically, its ok for AS/QX to own the route now, but wouldn't be ok in the future simply because the name on the airplane?

Silly question, Since you obviously have a hard on towards my posting, wake up! AS/QX has created the market for themselves, DL is not going to get the DOJ to hand it to them in a merger attempt.

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 67):
Yes, of course I am paying attention.

Good, then you will notice the DOJ was deliberating the AA/US merger for anti-competitive reasons, the combined carrier gave up quite a bit to get what they wanted.

The DOJ is not going to allow DL and AS to merge for the anti-competitive reasons they questioned the AA/US merger.

If DL wanted to merge, they would not be over lapping AS on core routes right now, they would be creating a complimentary route map instead. DL has now created the competition that will prevent them from acquiring AS.

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 67):
Hear that sound? That is the consumer, and they are speaking very loudly

I think you need to turn up your hearing aid, no consumer up here is buying what you are selling.



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User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 72, posted (10 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4152 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
I think you need to turn up your hearing aid, no consumer up here is buying what you are selling.

Check your DOT stats. DL's SEA passenger enplanements and market share are both UP significantly year over year. Clearly somebody is buying what DL brings to the marketplace.


User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9426 posts, RR: 14
Reply 73, posted (10 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4079 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
It does for AS, you don't have 1.4 billion dollars in the bank by flying low yielding routes.

no it doesn't.
Please, show me data that even come close to suggesting every single route AS is flying to Hawaii makes money. (I'm not saying they don't, but LF doesn't = profit.)

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
These are not the large players up and down the west coast.

....................
are you kidding me?

Southwest and United aren't big players on the west coast......but Delta is?


I need to go back to Seattle. They seem to have some realllllly good stuff up there.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
They have not done so since they picked up Morris Air, why would they now drop into an over saturated market years later?

huh? WN hasn't added a single competitive route in....20 years?

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
AS/QX has created the market for themselves, DL is not going to get the DOJ to hand it to them in a merger attempt.

so the answer to my question is
yes. AS can do anything as long at its AS.

thank you. thats the answer i was expecting.



yep.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 74, posted (10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 3917 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 73):
no it doesn't.
Please, show me data that even come close to suggesting every single route AS is flying to Hawaii makes money.

That is not what I said or even suggested, so why am I supposed to do the work you want done?

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 73):
(I'm not saying they don't, but LF doesn't = profit.)

That was what I was saying, AS did not end up with a big bankroll by flying underperforming routes.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 73):
Southwest and United aren't big players on the west coast......but Delta is?



Both WN and UA have reduced west coast flying in the past years, they are good to core markets and that is it.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 73):

huh? WN hasn't added a single competitive route in....20 years?

Again, not what was being discussed, you are stretching to try and make moot points. The DOJ is not approving any merger between AS & DL

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 73):
so the answer to my question is
yes. AS can do anything as long at its AS.

thank you. thats the answer i was expecting

Good, whatever you say man, if you can't get it, don't blame me. My answer was, if DL earns it, then let them have 90% market share, but don't expect it to be handed over.



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User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 75, posted (10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3835 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 74):
My answer was, if DL earns it, then let them have 90% market share, but don't expect it to be handed over.

Oh that's OK because DL is not afraid of a good hard fight and will earn the business of a the SEA business traveler fair and square.


User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 321 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (10 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3756 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 71):
These are not the large players up and down the west coast.

Say what? WN and UA are huge on the west coast. Show me an airport on the left coast that WN doesn't have a boatload of flights?


User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5111 posts, RR: 21
Reply 77, posted (10 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3681 times:

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 76):


Show me an airport on the left coast that WN doesn't have a boatload of flights?

LGB
EUG
MFR
PSP
FAT
BFL
SCK
MRY
SBA

etc....



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 321 posts, RR: 0
Reply 78, posted (10 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3593 times:

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 77):
LGB
EUG
MFR
PSP
FAT
BFL
SCK
MRY
SBA

etc....

What's funny is that I almost included that list as a joke. I figured you would have thrown in CLD and SBA as proof that WN is weak on the west coast. They have a hole up in STS too...  


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 79, posted (10 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3343 times:

Quoting AirFRNT (Reply 56):

Not a chance. These guys are in for the IPO game. That's part of the reason they are so focused on ownership interest. IPO allows for a huge valuation for the business - more then they could sell for - without relinquishing operational control. You may see other partners jump in to capitalize/re-capitalize the firm, but Indigo is in the drivers seat for a while.

Ahhhhhhh that's it! That's exactly it....but can F9 make a good IPO?,.......I don't think they can do anything A la Twitter....then again,...different industry



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25268 posts, RR: 85
Reply 80, posted (10 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3273 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 79):
Ahhhhhhh that's it! That's exactly it....but can F9 make a good IPO?,.......I don't think they can do anything A la Twitter....then again,...different industry

I'm not sure how Twitter comes into this, but Indigo brought Spirit successfully to IPO - and made a big bunch of money.

No reason why they can't to that with Frontier.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 81, posted (10 months 23 hours ago) and read 2995 times:

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 76):
Say what? WN and UA are huge on the west coast. Show me an airport on the left coast that WN doesn't have a boatload of flights?

UA is big if you are flying to SFO, and that is it. If you are referring to intra-California then yes both UA and WN are players, but between the states above California and California, UA and WN are NOT big players. In fact in the last year WN has dropped several routes within the Northwest. WNs expansion has been mainly east from here.

If WN has a boatload then AS has a aircraft carrier full, flying within California is really not what is being discussed here.

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 75):
Oh that's OK because DL is not afraid of a good hard fight and will earn the business of a the SEA business traveler fair and square.

There ya go, now you get it. Let them fight until they bleed, we'll enjoy cheap fares up and down the coast, and let the best airline win. The carrier with CR9s or 737s? Who knows?

Will it be the airline that has made the Northwest it's home since the 80's and is well loved and appreciated in the NW, or the carpet bagger carrier, that all of the sudden wants to be a bigger part of what is happening in SEA?

The reality is there is room for both carriers up and down the coast, but if it's a battle for all the marbles then expect to see a smiling Eskimo when you fly up and down the coast.



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User currently offlineTSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 3068 posts, RR: 5
Reply 82, posted (10 months 16 hours ago) and read 2790 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 81):
Will it be the airline that has made the Northwest it's home since the 80's and is well loved and appreciated in the NW, or the carpet bagger carrier, that all of the sudden wants to be a bigger part of what is happening in SEA?

Well played, Sir, well played. 



Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
User currently offlineASFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2005, 1173 posts, RR: 3
Reply 83, posted (10 months 15 hours ago) and read 2744 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 75):
Oh that's OK because DL is not afraid of a good hard fight and will earn the business of a the SEA business traveler fair and square.

There's so much arrogance at DL but so little to really back it up with. Customers aren't as in love with DL as some of their employee/loyalists are and the customers are the ones that get to decide.


User currently offlineDL747400 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 84, posted (9 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2491 times:

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 83):

Nah, not at all. Was merely pointing out that DL is ready for a good hard fight. DL didn't expand this far in SEA thinking AS or the SEA passengers or anyone else for that matter would be pushovers. I do firmly believe that DL brings a very competitive product to the market, one that will win the hearts and minds of a good share of SEA passengers.


User currently offlineNYCAdvantage From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 355 posts, RR: 0
Reply 85, posted (9 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2420 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 84):

We don't know what the future will bring to us in Seattle, between this two airlines, but I don't see any battle brewing between them, that said there is a pattern that we can all see here, DL retreats from SFO-NRT, UA retreats from SEA-NRT interesting enough now we hear rumors that AA is about to join the battle between LAX-SEA which doesn't surprise anyone if they do start, and if that is not interesting enough, AS still making money and happy like always no retaliation at all, Delta prays their partner and join festivities with them on every opportunity they have, my take is Alaska knew what they we're getting in to and they are happy with it, other wise why be together with Delta on every party that Delta throws in Seattle, my take, again "my take" is if everyone play their script well, results will be in, in about 2 years, if it happens, they will work details by then, the what's, the where, the why's .


User currently offlineASFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2005, 1173 posts, RR: 3
Reply 86, posted (9 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2193 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 84):
Nah, not at all. Was merely pointing out that DL is ready for a good hard fight. DL didn't expand this far in SEA thinking AS or the SEA passengers or anyone else for that matter would be pushovers. I do firmly believe that DL brings a very competitive product to the market, one that will win the hearts and minds of a good share of SEA passengers.

I think Delta has a pretty competitive product and most likely even a better First Class product on longer flights. Look for Alaska to up their game very shortly so that they will compete very well with Delta and offer a much nicer First Class product. Outside of the SEA-JFK flights that will be offering flat bed seats, AS will be very competitive. Given that, it's not likely Delta is going to be able to swoop in and woo away any SEA passengers. Especially not with the frequent flyer agreements that AS offers over Delta. Time will tell though, all we can do is wait and see.


User currently offlineairliner371 From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 1394 posts, RR: 2
Reply 87, posted (9 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2137 times:

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64):
I don't think WN wants a large FF base in the NYC market or is even trying for that.

Maybe not large but WN would be happy to grow their NYC FF base at a reasonable cost.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 64):
than them trying to build a huge base of flyers and compete with United or Delta for a FF base.

The only way for this to happen is for them to get a LOT of slots. So unless a great opportunity came up, this isn't going to happen. Now, if the slots some how became available, through bankruptcy of whatever, would they want them? TBD.



You will either love or hate the airline industry. If you love it, it will get in your blood and it will never leave.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3263 posts, RR: 5
Reply 88, posted (9 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 1829 times:

Quoting DL747400 (Reply 84):
I do firmly believe that DL brings a very competitive product to the market, one that will win the hearts and minds of a good share of SEA passengers.

I'm all for individual opinions, and I'll respect your desire to feel the way you do, but I flew DL the first time they flew SEA-PDX with L10s, 767s, 757s, 72Ss and also when DL was a big player at PDX, even when they bought WA and we flew PDX-LAX, SEA-LAX, LAX-SFO and more, DL could not compete then, even when they had the established network of WA.

Now 30+ years later, DL comes back to the west coast with some CR9s and it honestly won't be much different. AS is way more established, and more importantly, the hearts of true NW flyers are with AS. More than any other carrier, AS has a very loyal following, HA has that same brand loyalty amongst the Hawaiian travelling public.

DL offers a fine product, I admire your passion, but DL is not going to win the hearts of the Seattle travelling public, they are a carpet bagging carrier from the east coast, and AS is based in Seattle.

Therefore AS success is directly related to Seattles economy, these facts are not lost to the Northwest travelers. AS has been very good to us up here in the NW, and in turn the public has spoken. We may be wet, but we are not stupid when it comes to sustainability of our economy. We support and treasure our local businesses.



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User currently offlinebluefltspecial From United States of America, joined exactly 1 years ago today! , 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 89, posted (9 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1555 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 39):
DL/UA are close. AA is going to be pretty big
by fleet AA is only about 100 aircraft smaller than DL....add in ~300-400 airplanes at US.......

I agreed but then again take a look... I did my best from what I know and what I could find online... This is just a rough version...

United
30 A32X Family
35 A350 (plus options for 40 more I think)
100 B737 MAX 9
13 B788 in the pipe (with options for 30 more?)
and don't forget the 787-9 and -10 which were what 25 and 20 respectively?
Retirements are few now that the B762 are out, maybe a few old A32X family or older build 757s? CO had a very young fleet which has really helped them.

What about Delta
80 some 717s coming on board
30 orders for the A32X family
somewhere around 100 B739s coming on line now
and while AA is getting rid of the MD-80s DL plans to update theirs to Glass Cockpits by 2016 so no end in site for those birds.
You're looking a capacity gain of over 200 frames with only a handful of 757/767/DC9s actually being retired; Delta loves to use their birds till they're too tired to fly. But hey, if it's paid off it's free money to fly them, right? Who knows maybe DL will pick up some old AA birds?   

Here's the thing about AA - they have a huge fleet of MD80s but they are planning on replacing and phasing them out by 2018 and replacing them with 737s and now Airbus...IIRC they had over 150 MD80s but there won't be any capacity gain there. They have over 100 orders for the A32X family and another order that won't see delivery for about another 5 years. We're just starting to see the A321s come online but those are replacing the 762s and regular non 3 class A321s will be replacing some 757s.
As far as widebodies there should be about another 10 773s in the pipe or so but the we should start seeing the order for about 40 or so 787s coming in starting next year. The 763ER fleet was just about 50 or so but these are expected to be phased out in the next few years as well.
Now AA has/had a huge fleet of 757s however a lot of these are being phased out with the 737NGs and A320neos so that's a loss of capacity around 75 right there or one for one replacement.
You're looking at about 150 frames being retired soon and a gain of about 200-250 frames in the next few years so only about 100 frame gain with more frames starting to come online in 2018.

US Airways
767s going one for one with the A332.
While there are orders of 40 or more aircraft A32X and A332 and a more than a few A350s you're looking at a loss of 60 for replacement meaning you'll still be down 20 or so until/if they exercise their options. The A350s ever aren't scheduled really till 2017+ so it's borderline into the equation.
Their fleet will still stand pretty flat around 300.

While current numbers would put AA and US around 900+ frames - as it happens with mergers airlines like to "trim the fat." Once AA and US are worked out we'll start seeing older models phased out since there are so many fuel efficient aircraft coming on line. Just my guess and it's that'll bring them down to 800-900 frames. The biggest question is what will DP do with the AA orders. We know that US is/was pro Airbus ever since Boeing tried to sue them after the cancellation of their 737 and 757 order. It's hard to say what will happen since AA was planning on a fleet over over 300 B738s more than 80 of which have yet to be delivered. Pardon the pun, but it's really up in the air.

Now this is only my opinion, but I would guess Delta to stand the winner in terms of size. They choose the A330 for many reasons but one being they could get them sooner. It's just a hunch but I don't think DL is done ordering aircraft. They've got a product that passengers actually love, mainly because they're focusing on the customer "experience"adding charging ports and iPads in terminal waiting areas and not on *just* trying to make money. The olde "gotta spend money to make money" seems to be working with them and their passengers. I think we'll see either another aircraft order around the corner or DL picking up a number of used aircraft that still have some life in them. Most of their orders are currently in the pipe or already starting to be delivered. The 717s are being tossed over and they're already built just needing some minor adjustments before accepting them. I'm going to pin Delta's fleet in the next few years baring any unforeseen issues around 900-950 frames or more.

Now, if we're talking 2018 and beyond, it's a different story it's +5 years out and anyone's guess.

Cheers



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