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AA/US - Impact On Dulles?  
User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2951 posts, RR: 6
Posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5968 times:

With the merged airline, the new AA will pick up a lot of new elite flyers and raise it's profile in the Washington DC area. Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD? Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3350 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5928 times:
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Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD?

Doubtful to be honest. The LAX flights seem to do their jobs, but UA and the foreqign airlines have the IAD transatlantic market tied up.

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)?

Again, doubtful. They have pretty sufficient service on the market, though it may help the BWI flight out a bit.

Overall, I don't expect to see a lot of growth at IAD except a few extra frequencies to hub markets if they get reduced from DCA.



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User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11979 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5857 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
With the merged airline, the new AA will pick up a lot of new elite flyers and raise it's profile in the Washington DC area.

  

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD?

I don't see much need for any additional AA transcons from Dulles, although I still contend that 1 of the IAD-LHR flights transitioning to AA isn't entirely out of the question, although it is unlikely.

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

Probably not adding flights IAD-LHR, per se, but I definitely expect BA to upgauge the IAD-LHR flights as the "rising tide" of AA's now very strong presence in the WAS metro market "lifts all boats" among AA and its partners. There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.


User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1116 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5834 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
Probably not adding flights IAD-LHR, per se, but I definitely expect BA to upgauge the IAD-LHR flights as the "rising tide" of AA's now very strong presence in the WAS metro market "lifts all boats" among AA and its partners. There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.

The new AA is "rising." ; )


User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5763 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.

But probably at the expense of connecting through PHL, so I'd call this a wash from a whole-network point of view.

The incoming LCC flights at DCA will substantially undermine growth for all of IAD, even with the eventual extension of Metro to Dulles.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11979 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5743 times:

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 4):
But probably at the expense of connecting through PHL, so I'd call this a wash from a whole-network point of view.

I don't see why. I'm not saying that existing USAirways/Star WAS-area FFs will merely shift routings (PHL connection vs BA nonstop). I'm saying some United/Star WAS-area FFs will actually shift airlines/alliances altogether and instead focus on AA (and also BA's IAD-LHR) and thus be a net-add to the network.

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 4):
The incoming LCC flights at DCA will substantially undermine growth for all of IAD, even with the eventual extension of Metro to Dulles.

  

The DCA slot divestiture is bad news for IAD and the United hub, and will only further undermine IAD as a viable O&D airport for central D.C. for all but the most loyal Star FFs, and particularly for any market where DCA is flown nonstop.


User currently offlineMSJYOP28Apilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 246 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5704 times:

Currently at IAD, US just operates to CLT. It is mainly regional flying with a mix of CRJ, CR7, CR9 and the occasional mainline A319. AA flies to DFW, MIA and LAX. It is all mainlaine with mainly B738/MD80 flying.

The big difference is the gates. US Airways is located in the Z gates at the main terminal building. AA is located at concourse B.

Z concourse has 1 or 2 gates that are open for use and at one point IAD had plans to expand the Z gates. I think they will try to consolidate on B but for local passengers, the Z concourse is pretty nice even if it is limited in space.

I wouldnt be entirely surprised if the new AA drops flying IAD-CLT in favor of routing connections to DFW/MIA. That would certainly make consolidating gates more easy eithern way.


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5653 times:

It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 782 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5628 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

WAS is a smaller market than NYC so mirroring isn't really an option. Technically with AA they serve Tokyo, London, and Madrid with their partners, so that may be enough to satisfy the need for international. Also, I believe LAN serves S. America so that is covered too.

All of that said, I'd love to see AA jets flying at least to Europe and S. America someday.


User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3350 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5620 times:
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Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

My question with that plan would be, where would they get the gatespace for that? I'm not saying that teh plane is unviable, but I dno't know if it would be possible. Plus, UA would just match prices or drop them, lowering yields for everybody involved. I don't know if AA would be interested.



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User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11979 posts, RR: 62
Reply 10, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 5577 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area.

As said - the market isn't big enough. The most I could realistically see from AA and oneworld post-merger - and I consider this an absolute best-case scenario - is potentially moving the BA IAD-LHR schedule to only 777/747, adding an AA 752 on IAD-MAD, and possibly seeing a JAL 787 on IAD-NRT. That's it.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

United will always have the larger presence at IAD because it's their hub. Nonetheless, having recently flown United through IAD on the way to Europe, I must say I was surprised at how subpar their hub there looks. The terminal facilities were among the worst-looking of any international gateway I've seen for a U.S. network carrier, and United's lounge offerings were decidedly underwhelming by the standards of what I've generally seen from AA and Delta.


User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 4 days ago) and read 5441 times:

Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s? Again, more elites, arguably a higher yielding crowd might be more willing to pay for it.

User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5214 times:

I do wonder if WN may pull out of IAD as they are about to get a whole bunch of slots at DCA? Perhaps they will keep their DEN flights as this is still out of perimeter. B6 could end their flights to JFK, perhaps BOS too, leaving only Oakland and LGB.

Once they get Metro in, international traffic will increase even more as pax who were connecting in JFK, ORD, DTW, etc. to DCA to avoid the inconvenience of IAD will come to IAD nonstop instead with cheap one seat service to downtown DC.

IAD and EWR will be twins soon (if it isn't already), with domestic service mainly via one airline with no competition and oodles of international service.

MWAA needs to try and recruit a second domestic airline to ramp up operations, but given that neither DL or AA are likely to do this, they need to attract some ULCCs (G4, F9, NK, WS). This would likely require dropping fees, something they probably can't do given the debt they need to pay off for the Metro.

The AA/US merger couldn't have come at a worse time.


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3640 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5131 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 11):
Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s? Again, more elites, arguably a higher yielding crowd might be more willing to pay for it.

Depends on how many premium cash paying customers there are for a true first or business product. The demand might be there? I think its just full of higher fare paying coach passengers and they wouldn't want to loose those seats?


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5111 times:

The problem with the new AA DCA hub is that it is an incomplete hub with little transcon service and no longhaul service. Obviously DCA will never become a complete hub for the new AA; however a build up at IAD with international flights and beyond perimeter flights with a few in perimeter connections would complete the new AA WAS network. In perimeter domestic O&D traffic and connections can be routed through DCA while Inertional/beyond perimeter domestic O&D traffic and connections can be routed through IAD.

User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1120 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 4346 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 10):
United will always have the larger presence at IAD because it's their hub. Nonetheless, having recently flown United through IAD on the way to Europe, I must say I was surprised at how subpar their hub there looks. The terminal facilities were among the worst-looking of any international gateway I've seen for a U.S. network carrier, and United's lounge offerings were decidedly underwhelming by the standards of what I've generally seen from AA and Delta.

The sub-par mid-field UA terminal at IAD will [eventually] be replaced by new facility. UA is aware of this issue and will plan and build a new terminal when the time is right. That time is not now, as UA has other more pressing issues it is currently targeting. IAD will receive Metro service in 4 years, which will greatly enhance the value of the IAD hub to UA. For now, UA is focused on optimizing its services at IAD and maximizing financial returns from this key market, the metropolitan Washington area.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):
MWAA needs to try and recruit a second domestic airline to ramp up operations, but given that neither DL or AA are likely to do this, they need to attract some ULCCs (G4, F9, NK, WS). This would likely require dropping fees, something they probably can't do given the debt they need to pay off for the Metro.

Most of the Metro Silver Line-Dulles funding is coming from Federal DOT and local Virginia counties, including Fairfax county, as well as Loudon county, via project-focused municipal bond issues. The MWAA will assume some capital costs, of course, but the bulk of the resources are from federal and municipal sources. The MWAA is always seeking new carriers and services and would likely welcome enhanced frequencies and new routes from a combined AA/US.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11582 posts, RR: 52
Reply 16, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4094 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD? Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

I suggested the same on another thread.

It definitely wouldn't be IAD-LAX or -SAN, and probably not -PHX or -LAS either. But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN. I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area. But I think the DCA-PHL-Europe connections will likely do just fine to support the DC market, especially considering that some fliers (like me) think that connecting in PHL or elsewhere is about as arduous as schlepping to Dulles, and at least I can take the subway or a quick cab to DCA and save on parking.



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User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11582 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4026 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 11):
Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s?

My guess is no, because they only get one flight a day, and there are too many people that want to take the route to "downgauge" to a lower capacity plane. Also, DC, while being a fairly premium market, is a premium market for Y fares, not business class fares, which the government would not pay for.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):

I do wonder if WN may pull out of IAD as they are about to get a whole bunch of slots at DCA?

Ugh. That would so justify the DOJ's settlement. Remove consolidation at DCA just to force consolidation at IAD by WN's departure.

It's way beyond time for WN not to be the darling of the government.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):
Once they get Metro in, international traffic will increase even more as pax who were connecting in JFK, ORD, DTW, etc. to DCA to avoid the inconvenience of IAD will come to IAD nonstop instead with cheap one seat service to downtown DC.

Because an hour+ on metro after a long international flight isn't inconvenient...

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 14):
The problem with the new AA DCA hub is that it is an incomplete hub with little transcon service and no longhaul service. Obviously DCA will never become a complete hub for the new AA

I wonder if DCA-xxx-LON service is even possible, should the laws change to allow it?



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User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6936 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3979 times:

I would think IAD would even be a smaller spoke than say EWR, which with the combined AA/US schedule will have 6-8 gates and flights to: MIA/DFW/ORD/CLT/PHL/LAX/PHX


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User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4329 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3947 times:
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Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
I don't see much need for any additional AA transcons from Dulles,

In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

With all due respect, the 738s are full.


User currently offlinevc10dc10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3910 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):

It definitely wouldn't be IAD-LAX or -SAN, and probably not -PHX or -LAS either. But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN. I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area.

I hate to say it, but I think this is very wishful thinking.

Quoting D L X (Reply 17):

Because an hour+ on metro after a long international flight isn't inconvenient...

No offense, but what world city's principal international airport isn't roughly an hour away from the city center on public transportation?

I realize this is a little late to change now, but I wish that when Dulles opened in 1962, DCA had been permanently closed, or reduced to serving general aviation only.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11582 posts, RR: 52
Reply 21, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3728 times:

Quoting vc10dc10 (Reply 20):
No offense, but what world city's principal international airport isn't roughly an hour away from the city center on public transportation?

No offense taken, but I'd answer that question with another question: why should Washingtonians care what other world cities do? We have an amazing airport near the center of town, and that's how we like it. Regardless of what London does, Washingtonians have a legitimate reason to declare Dulles "inconvenient" because we know what convenient looks like. It looks like DCA.

Quoting vc10dc10 (Reply 20):
but I wish that when Dulles opened in 1962, DCA had been permanently closed

Why?

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 19):
In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

probably for two reasons:
(1) the 762s and 757s have been better utilized elsewhere where only they can do the job (or they have been retired)
(2) there aren't a lot of oneworld customers in the DC area.

Nothing can be done about (1). But something major just happened affecting (2).



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User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3668 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):
I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area.

IAD-FRA...no way that Oneworld want to duke it out between two Star hubs.
IAD-MAD...it's been tried before by IB and UA (using EI metal) and failed both times. Not sure the merger helps much.
IAD-HEL...might work in the summer months, but not year round.

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):
But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN.

Again, I doubt AA wants to take on UA on hub to hub routes where AA has no hub on either end.

I see little to no expansion for AA/US at IAD. There simply isn't the need beyond what they already have. Not to mention that with perpetual turmoil around the government budget, travel budgets are going to be a bit tighter making expansion in the DC market less likely.

Overall, I do believe that the US/AA merger is bad for IAD for two reasons. It makes US more appealing at DCA as it mergers the frequent flyer bases and provides a broader network to connect into, thus hurting UA's appeal somewhat. Second and more important, the shift of slots to WN/B6 will mean lower fares at DCA and more capacity at DCA...this will inevitably steal passengers from IAD.


User currently offlineoc2dc From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 410 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3607 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 19):
In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

With all due respect, the 738s are full.

With all due respect, the 762 only had a difference of 20 seats with the 738, (as of recently 30 seats b/c of the addition of MCE), That's not a huge difference. 762 is also a 3 class bird...Times have changed. It's not necessary to fly 3 class birds on LAX-IAD anymore.



I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1116 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (1 year 1 month 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3513 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 15):
The sub-par mid-field UA terminal at IAD will [eventually] be replaced by new facility. UA is aware of this issue and will plan and build a new terminal when the time is right. That time is not now, as UA has other more pressing issues it is currently targeting. IAD will receive Metro service in 4 years, which will greatly enhance the value of the IAD hub to UA. For now, UA is focused on optimizing its services at IAD and maximizing financial returns from this key market, the metropolitan Washington area.

There is/was a plan. KPF was the architect. There are renderings of what the terminal was supposed to look like on their website.

Nothing ever came of it. It was an expensive plan and, if I remember correctly, MWAA wanted UA to put up most, if not all, of the money for it. That's as far as things got.


25 HPRamper : On the contrary, AA's new DCA hub is a hell of a lot more than what they had before, and they seem to be doing fine lately without it. You don't need
26 seatback : The situation at IAD is very unique and bizarre from a network perspective. Only in DC do you have a metro area whose population has to split their lo
27 jetblastdubai : With JFK, PHL and DCA all hubs or "focus cities" within a couple hundred miles, what would adding IAD do for AA? That would make about as much sense a
28 upwardfacing : While the DCA and IAD markets overlap, and DCA is superior for many, IAD has its own catchment area. I think fears of IAD losing to DCA are somewhat o
29 Burchfiel : I really wish IAD all the best -- it's my 'hometown' airport and has a beautiful main terminal; plus the A/B gates are quite nice. It's a shame that w
30 kgaiflyer : The same applies to BWI. It's nice to have the variety of three airports with competing prices, but the thought of bucking traffic to get down the Ge
31 commavia : When the time is right? That time is now. It's embarrassing - now that Delta has addressed JFK T3, United at IAD (terminals, lounges, regional facili
32 PDPsol : A replacement to the UA mid-field IAD terminal is a very expensive and time-consuming project. UA management answers to the Company's Board of Direct
33 tommy767 : I forgot that BWI will be a large spoke for AA after the merger -- especially compared to IAD. How many flights will there be at BWI after they merge?
34 MSJYOP28Apilot : Out of BWI, the combined AA will have flights to DFW, ORD, JFK, MIA, CLT, PHL, and PHX.
35 tharanga : Even the UA management themselves may have some uncertainty over what role IAD will play in their network in five years. I wouldn't expect them to com
36 BigGSFO : ,,,and under the JV, BA to London.
37 Flytravel : I think WN will keep IAD just for DEN, so 5 daily departures - 2 atleast to DEN, and 3 going elsewhere (maybe 2x MDW and 1x MCO), while DCA gets some
38 aajfksjubklyn : Flying AA's 738's are miserable. Their new first seats are the worst. I don't know what they don't listen to their customers. I receive a dam survey
39 scorpy : It's common on this board to brand Dulles a white elephant, and that might be true for government traffic or people who live/work in the district. Bu
40 MesaFlyGuy : I've noticed NK moving into more mainstream airports and not really caring about their previous morals about service. (PHL/ACY, LGA/ISP (even though
41 D L X : You do realize that AA just merged with US, right? WASHINGTON, the City, now has a huge base of oneworld elites. Oneworld might choose to fly where t
42 kgaiflyer : You speak the truth. I'd rather do F class on a Maddog.
43 FlyPNS1 : With UA/LH flying IAD-FRA anywhere from 3-5x daily, I just don't see it happening. Maybe, but MAD has a few problems. There's not much of a business
44 jetblastdubai : AA won't get all the Star elites. For those that probably fly short and long-hauls out of DC and split their travel between DCA and IAD, a lot probab
45 a380787 : I think the mix is definitely more UA-elites flying US/DCA for convenience than US-elites flying UA for transcon/long-haul only. The idea of fully sw
46 PDPsol : Not happening anytime soon, as IB has bigger issues to focus its attention on than re-starting the IAD market. IB has two key markets in the United S
47 D L X : I'm not talking about STAR elites. I'm talking about the US Airways elites based in the DC area, and yes, there are a lot of them. I bet a lot more w
48 jetblastdubai : Miles are one thing but status is another. Since 2012, US miles did not count towards United Million Mile Flyer status so you can bet that people try
49 D L X : Unless you're saying that you got credit towards United Million Mile Flyer status when you flew a United codeshare on a US Airways flight, this is no
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