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AA/US - Impact On Dulles?  
User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2910 posts, RR: 6
Posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 5648 times:

With the merged airline, the new AA will pick up a lot of new elite flyers and raise it's profile in the Washington DC area. Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD? Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2927 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5608 times:
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Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD?

Doubtful to be honest. The LAX flights seem to do their jobs, but UA and the foreqign airlines have the IAD transatlantic market tied up.

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)?

Again, doubtful. They have pretty sufficient service on the market, though it may help the BWI flight out a bit.

Overall, I don't expect to see a lot of growth at IAD except a few extra frequencies to hub markets if they get reduced from DCA.



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User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11411 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5537 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
With the merged airline, the new AA will pick up a lot of new elite flyers and raise it's profile in the Washington DC area.

  

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD?

I don't see much need for any additional AA transcons from Dulles, although I still contend that 1 of the IAD-LHR flights transitioning to AA isn't entirely out of the question, although it is unlikely.

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

Probably not adding flights IAD-LHR, per se, but I definitely expect BA to upgauge the IAD-LHR flights as the "rising tide" of AA's now very strong presence in the WAS metro market "lifts all boats" among AA and its partners. There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.


User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1039 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5514 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
Probably not adding flights IAD-LHR, per se, but I definitely expect BA to upgauge the IAD-LHR flights as the "rising tide" of AA's now very strong presence in the WAS metro market "lifts all boats" among AA and its partners. There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.

The new AA is "rising." ; )


User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1035 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5443 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
There will now be plenty of WAS-area AA FFs who chose to fly to LON, and Europe, with BA via LHR.

But probably at the expense of connecting through PHL, so I'd call this a wash from a whole-network point of view.

The incoming LCC flights at DCA will substantially undermine growth for all of IAD, even with the eventual extension of Metro to Dulles.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11411 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5423 times:

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 4):
But probably at the expense of connecting through PHL, so I'd call this a wash from a whole-network point of view.

I don't see why. I'm not saying that existing USAirways/Star WAS-area FFs will merely shift routings (PHL connection vs BA nonstop). I'm saying some United/Star WAS-area FFs will actually shift airlines/alliances altogether and instead focus on AA (and also BA's IAD-LHR) and thus be a net-add to the network.

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 4):
The incoming LCC flights at DCA will substantially undermine growth for all of IAD, even with the eventual extension of Metro to Dulles.

  

The DCA slot divestiture is bad news for IAD and the United hub, and will only further undermine IAD as a viable O&D airport for central D.C. for all but the most loyal Star FFs, and particularly for any market where DCA is flown nonstop.


User currently offlineMSJYOP28Apilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5384 times:

Currently at IAD, US just operates to CLT. It is mainly regional flying with a mix of CRJ, CR7, CR9 and the occasional mainline A319. AA flies to DFW, MIA and LAX. It is all mainlaine with mainly B738/MD80 flying.

The big difference is the gates. US Airways is located in the Z gates at the main terminal building. AA is located at concourse B.

Z concourse has 1 or 2 gates that are open for use and at one point IAD had plans to expand the Z gates. I think they will try to consolidate on B but for local passengers, the Z concourse is pretty nice even if it is limited in space.

I wouldnt be entirely surprised if the new AA drops flying IAD-CLT in favor of routing connections to DFW/MIA. That would certainly make consolidating gates more easy eithern way.


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5333 times:

It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5308 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

WAS is a smaller market than NYC so mirroring isn't really an option. Technically with AA they serve Tokyo, London, and Madrid with their partners, so that may be enough to satisfy the need for international. Also, I believe LAN serves S. America so that is covered too.

All of that said, I'd love to see AA jets flying at least to Europe and S. America someday.


User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2927 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5300 times:
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Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area. If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

My question with that plan would be, where would they get the gatespace for that? I'm not saying that teh plane is unviable, but I dno't know if it would be possible. Plus, UA would just match prices or drop them, lowering yields for everybody involved. I don't know if AA would be interested.



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User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11411 posts, RR: 62
Reply 10, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5257 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
It would be wise for the new AA to mirror their network from JFK at IAD to capitalize on their extensive FF base in the WAS metro area.

As said - the market isn't big enough. The most I could realistically see from AA and oneworld post-merger - and I consider this an absolute best-case scenario - is potentially moving the BA IAD-LHR schedule to only 777/747, adding an AA 752 on IAD-MAD, and possibly seeing a JAL 787 on IAD-NRT. That's it.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 7):
If AA had a decent presence at both airports, they could really give UA a run for their money.

United will always have the larger presence at IAD because it's their hub. Nonetheless, having recently flown United through IAD on the way to Europe, I must say I was surprised at how subpar their hub there looks. The terminal facilities were among the worst-looking of any international gateway I've seen for a U.S. network carrier, and United's lounge offerings were decidedly underwhelming by the standards of what I've generally seen from AA and Delta.


User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2910 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (8 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5121 times:

Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s? Again, more elites, arguably a higher yielding crowd might be more willing to pay for it.

User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4894 times:

I do wonder if WN may pull out of IAD as they are about to get a whole bunch of slots at DCA? Perhaps they will keep their DEN flights as this is still out of perimeter. B6 could end their flights to JFK, perhaps BOS too, leaving only Oakland and LGB.

Once they get Metro in, international traffic will increase even more as pax who were connecting in JFK, ORD, DTW, etc. to DCA to avoid the inconvenience of IAD will come to IAD nonstop instead with cheap one seat service to downtown DC.

IAD and EWR will be twins soon (if it isn't already), with domestic service mainly via one airline with no competition and oodles of international service.

MWAA needs to try and recruit a second domestic airline to ramp up operations, but given that neither DL or AA are likely to do this, they need to attract some ULCCs (G4, F9, NK, WS). This would likely require dropping fees, something they probably can't do given the debt they need to pay off for the Metro.

The AA/US merger couldn't have come at a worse time.


User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3346 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4811 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 11):
Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s? Again, more elites, arguably a higher yielding crowd might be more willing to pay for it.

Depends on how many premium cash paying customers there are for a true first or business product. The demand might be there? I think its just full of higher fare paying coach passengers and they wouldn't want to loose those seats?


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4791 times:

The problem with the new AA DCA hub is that it is an incomplete hub with little transcon service and no longhaul service. Obviously DCA will never become a complete hub for the new AA; however a build up at IAD with international flights and beyond perimeter flights with a few in perimeter connections would complete the new AA WAS network. In perimeter domestic O&D traffic and connections can be routed through DCA while Inertional/beyond perimeter domestic O&D traffic and connections can be routed through IAD.

User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 4026 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 10):
United will always have the larger presence at IAD because it's their hub. Nonetheless, having recently flown United through IAD on the way to Europe, I must say I was surprised at how subpar their hub there looks. The terminal facilities were among the worst-looking of any international gateway I've seen for a U.S. network carrier, and United's lounge offerings were decidedly underwhelming by the standards of what I've generally seen from AA and Delta.

The sub-par mid-field UA terminal at IAD will [eventually] be replaced by new facility. UA is aware of this issue and will plan and build a new terminal when the time is right. That time is not now, as UA has other more pressing issues it is currently targeting. IAD will receive Metro service in 4 years, which will greatly enhance the value of the IAD hub to UA. For now, UA is focused on optimizing its services at IAD and maximizing financial returns from this key market, the metropolitan Washington area.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):
MWAA needs to try and recruit a second domestic airline to ramp up operations, but given that neither DL or AA are likely to do this, they need to attract some ULCCs (G4, F9, NK, WS). This would likely require dropping fees, something they probably can't do given the debt they need to pay off for the Metro.

Most of the Metro Silver Line-Dulles funding is coming from Federal DOT and local Virginia counties, including Fairfax county, as well as Loudon county, via project-focused municipal bond issues. The MWAA will assume some capital costs, of course, but the bulk of the resources are from federal and municipal sources. The MWAA is always seeking new carriers and services and would likely welcome enhanced frequencies and new routes from a combined AA/US.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 16, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3774 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Thread starter):
Thoughts on AA increasing any additional transcons or transatlantic service at IAD? Will we see BA add more flights to London (I would imagine this will help Baltimore-London as well)? Perhaps IB to Madrid year round?

I suggested the same on another thread.

It definitely wouldn't be IAD-LAX or -SAN, and probably not -PHX or -LAS either. But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN. I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area. But I think the DCA-PHL-Europe connections will likely do just fine to support the DC market, especially considering that some fliers (like me) think that connecting in PHL or elsewhere is about as arduous as schlepping to Dulles, and at least I can take the subway or a quick cab to DCA and save on parking.



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User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3706 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 11):
Also, I wonder, if the DCA-LAX flight on AA could possibly see the premium 321s?

My guess is no, because they only get one flight a day, and there are too many people that want to take the route to "downgauge" to a lower capacity plane. Also, DC, while being a fairly premium market, is a premium market for Y fares, not business class fares, which the government would not pay for.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):

I do wonder if WN may pull out of IAD as they are about to get a whole bunch of slots at DCA?

Ugh. That would so justify the DOJ's settlement. Remove consolidation at DCA just to force consolidation at IAD by WN's departure.

It's way beyond time for WN not to be the darling of the government.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):
Once they get Metro in, international traffic will increase even more as pax who were connecting in JFK, ORD, DTW, etc. to DCA to avoid the inconvenience of IAD will come to IAD nonstop instead with cheap one seat service to downtown DC.

Because an hour+ on metro after a long international flight isn't inconvenient...

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 14):
The problem with the new AA DCA hub is that it is an incomplete hub with little transcon service and no longhaul service. Obviously DCA will never become a complete hub for the new AA

I wonder if DCA-xxx-LON service is even possible, should the laws change to allow it?



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User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3659 times:

I would think IAD would even be a smaller spoke than say EWR, which with the combined AA/US schedule will have 6-8 gates and flights to: MIA/DFW/ORD/CLT/PHL/LAX/PHX


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User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4229 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3627 times:
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Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
I don't see much need for any additional AA transcons from Dulles,

In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

With all due respect, the 738s are full.


User currently offlinevc10dc10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1035 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3590 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):

It definitely wouldn't be IAD-LAX or -SAN, and probably not -PHX or -LAS either. But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN. I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area.

I hate to say it, but I think this is very wishful thinking.

Quoting D L X (Reply 17):

Because an hour+ on metro after a long international flight isn't inconvenient...

No offense, but what world city's principal international airport isn't roughly an hour away from the city center on public transportation?

I realize this is a little late to change now, but I wish that when Dulles opened in 1962, DCA had been permanently closed, or reduced to serving general aviation only.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 21, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3408 times:

Quoting vc10dc10 (Reply 20):
No offense, but what world city's principal international airport isn't roughly an hour away from the city center on public transportation?

No offense taken, but I'd answer that question with another question: why should Washingtonians care what other world cities do? We have an amazing airport near the center of town, and that's how we like it. Regardless of what London does, Washingtonians have a legitimate reason to declare Dulles "inconvenient" because we know what convenient looks like. It looks like DCA.

Quoting vc10dc10 (Reply 20):
but I wish that when Dulles opened in 1962, DCA had been permanently closed

Why?

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 19):
In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

probably for two reasons:
(1) the 762s and 757s have been better utilized elsewhere where only they can do the job (or they have been retired)
(2) there aren't a lot of oneworld customers in the DC area.

Nothing can be done about (1). But something major just happened affecting (2).



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User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6576 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3348 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):
I could also see IAD-FRA, -MAD, and even -HEL in the future based on the need to feed oneworld elites based in the DC area.

IAD-FRA...no way that Oneworld want to duke it out between two Star hubs.
IAD-MAD...it's been tried before by IB and UA (using EI metal) and failed both times. Not sure the merger helps much.
IAD-HEL...might work in the summer months, but not year round.

Quoting D L X (Reply 16):
But there is definitely room for IAD-SEA, -SFO, or -DEN.

Again, I doubt AA wants to take on UA on hub to hub routes where AA has no hub on either end.

I see little to no expansion for AA/US at IAD. There simply isn't the need beyond what they already have. Not to mention that with perpetual turmoil around the government budget, travel budgets are going to be a bit tighter making expansion in the DC market less likely.

Overall, I do believe that the US/AA merger is bad for IAD for two reasons. It makes US more appealing at DCA as it mergers the frequent flyer bases and provides a broader network to connect into, thus hurting UA's appeal somewhat. Second and more important, the shift of slots to WN/B6 will mean lower fares at DCA and more capacity at DCA...this will inevitably steal passengers from IAD.


User currently offlineoc2dc From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 362 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3287 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 19):
In fact, AA's IAD-LAX has gone from 762 to 757 to 738.

With all due respect, the 738s are full.

With all due respect, the 762 only had a difference of 20 seats with the 738, (as of recently 30 seats b/c of the addition of MCE), That's not a huge difference. 762 is also a 3 class bird...Times have changed. It's not necessary to fly 3 class birds on LAX-IAD anymore.



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User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1039 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3193 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 15):
The sub-par mid-field UA terminal at IAD will [eventually] be replaced by new facility. UA is aware of this issue and will plan and build a new terminal when the time is right. That time is not now, as UA has other more pressing issues it is currently targeting. IAD will receive Metro service in 4 years, which will greatly enhance the value of the IAD hub to UA. For now, UA is focused on optimizing its services at IAD and maximizing financial returns from this key market, the metropolitan Washington area.

There is/was a plan. KPF was the architect. There are renderings of what the terminal was supposed to look like on their website.

Nothing ever came of it. It was an expensive plan and, if I remember correctly, MWAA wanted UA to put up most, if not all, of the money for it. That's as far as things got.


User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4036 posts, RR: 8
Reply 25, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3323 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 14):
The problem with the new AA DCA hub is that it is an incomplete hub with little transcon service and no longhaul service. Obviously DCA will never become a complete hub for the new AA; however a build up at IAD with international flights and beyond perimeter flights with a few in perimeter connections would complete the new AA WAS network.

On the contrary, AA's new DCA hub is a hell of a lot more than what they had before, and they seem to be doing fine lately without it. You don't need a hub in every big city - I thought we had already been over that ad nauseum. AA will absolutely be the strongest airline on the Eastern seaboard now, with 5 hubs plus LGA focus in just the Eastern time zone, they can afford the drawbacks at DCA.


User currently offlineseatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3209 times:

The situation at IAD is very unique and bizarre from a network perspective. Only in DC do you have a metro area whose population has to split their loyalty depending on whether they're going domestically or internationally. The convenience of flying domestically on AA via 250 flights a day is undoubtedly a better choice than UA's domestic options out of IAD, plus you have the convenience of DCA.

With this in mind, I think partners will step up and provide some of the international lift that would be desired by AAdvantage loyalist.


User currently offlinejetblastdubai From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 629 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3134 times:
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With JFK, PHL and DCA all hubs or "focus cities" within a couple hundred miles, what would adding IAD do for AA? That would make about as much sense as adding a hub at ATL and keeping CLT.

AA won't be so big that they can put a hub in every major city and expect the competition to just roll over and hand them the keys to the terminal. They've got a lot of older planes to retire in the next few years and they'll have their hands full with this merger for the foreseeable future.


User currently offlineupwardfacing From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Apr 2013, 123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3023 times:

While the DCA and IAD markets overlap, and DCA is superior for many, IAD has its own catchment area. I think fears of IAD losing to DCA are somewhat overstated.

User currently offlineBurchfiel From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 306 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2944 times:

I really wish IAD all the best -- it's my 'hometown' airport and has a beautiful main terminal; plus the A/B gates are quite nice. It's a shame that we're currently stuck with what I would call the 'tempermanent' C and D gates.

IAD does have some big things going for it: now there's an airside train to connect the A, B, C, and D gates with the main terminal, so domestic connections should be pretty simple to do. We have five runways, the shortest of which is 9400 feet; DCA has just one runway longer than 7,000 feet (and its three runways all cross each other). I recognize IAD is out of the way for many folks, especially compared to DCA, but given the way Virginia's northern suburbs are growing, many folks in the exurbs may find IAD's location more convenient than DCA's, and for others the two might be equidistant. From my point of view (as a Fairfax County resident), the real inconvenient airport in the region is BWI; getting to IAD fees like a breeze compared to the trek out to Baltimore-Washington.

IAD's numbers have been disappointing recently, but the upside to this is that the airport has a lot of room to grow, and (to the best of my knowledge) doesn't have any of the slot restrictions that DCA suffers from. Although I'm completely biased in favor of IAD, I'm confident that someone, whether UA, AA, or BA, will choose to expand here, especially as the region continues to grow economically.


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4229 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2811 times:
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Quoting upwardfacing (Reply 28):
While the DCA and IAD markets overlap, and DCA is superior for many, IAD has its own catchment area. I think fears of IAD losing to DCA are somewhat overstated.

The same applies to BWI. It's nice to have the variety of three airports with competing prices, but the thought of bucking traffic to get down the George Washington Parkway and searching for parking in the DCA vicinity usually sends me to either IAD or BWI even though I live closer to DCA.

The total sh*t or getting there and parking there isn't worth the blood-pressure rise.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11411 posts, RR: 62
Reply 31, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2708 times:

Quoting PDPsol (Reply 15):
The sub-par mid-field UA terminal at IAD will [eventually] be replaced by new facility. UA is aware of this issue and will plan and build a new terminal when the time is right.

When the time is right? That time is now. It's embarrassing - now that Delta has addressed JFK T3, United at IAD (terminals, lounges, regional facilities, etc.) is without a doubt the worst international gateway facility I've seen of any major U.S. airline.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 25):
On the contrary, AA's new DCA hub is a hell of a lot more than what they had before, and they seem to be doing fine lately without it. You don't need a hub in every big city - I thought we had already been over that ad nauseum.

Not to mention - the whole discussion of DCA as a "hub" for AA is largely meaningless. USAirways has been calling DCA a hub for political and practical reasons as it's been going through this process, but the reality is that DCA is almost certainly the most O&D-focused of USAirways' "hubs," and it will remain so post-merger. The nation's capital generates an enormous amount of O&D and AA will dominate the preferred airport for this traffic. Any amount of connections is just gravy, but that is not now nor will it be the focus of the DCA operation. That's what PHL and CLT are for in the eastern U.S.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 32, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2410 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 31):
When the time is right? That time is now. It's embarrassing - now that Delta has addressed JFK T3, United at IAD (terminals, lounges, regional facilities, etc.) is without a doubt the worst international gateway facility I've seen of any major U.S. airline.

A replacement to the UA mid-field IAD terminal is a very expensive and time-consuming project. UA management answers to the Company's Board of Directors who, in turn, have a fiduciary responsibility to represent the interests of UA shareholders. These owners are not happy with UA's financial performance. UA trades at inferior valuation multiples relative to its most important peer: DL trades at 5.5x Firm value to forward NTM EBITDA, whereas UA trades at 3.9x.

After 3 long years, UA has yet to fully complete its operational integration with CO. UA shareholders are not happy with this and were not pleased with UA financial performance in Q3. The last thing UA needs now is an expensive, multi-year capital project at a second-tier hub, without a clear investment return profile.

UA will embark on this project and may even announce next year, if it can prove to its shareholders its merger is finally yielding the massive profits it is supposed to be generating.

BTW, UA employee compensation costs in 2013 are up 10% over 2012. Of course much, if not all, of this is attributable to the new labor contracts with pilots and others. Nonetheless, shareholders want faster revenue growth and enhanced operational efficiency.

UA has bigger fish to fry than a new terminal at IAD.

Finally, AA and US will be facing the same issues. However, the US management team is already highly experienced with mergers and has the benefit of learning from its disastrous information technology integration with HP in 2007. Hopefully, it is working hard to make sure this never happens again and avoids the damage UA encountered two years ago from its own IT mishaps.


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 33, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2338 times:

I forgot that BWI will be a large spoke for AA after the merger -- especially compared to IAD. How many flights will there be at BWI after they merge?


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User currently offlineMSJYOP28Apilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 34, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2241 times:

Out of BWI, the combined AA will have flights to DFW, ORD, JFK, MIA, CLT, PHL, and PHX.

User currently offlinetharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 35, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2207 times:

Even the UA management themselves may have some uncertainty over what role IAD will play in their network in five years. I wouldn't expect them to commit the money to the permanent C/D replacement until that role is clearer.

User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2910 posts, RR: 6
Reply 36, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2098 times:

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Reply 34):
Out of BWI, the combined AA will have flights to DFW, ORD, JFK, MIA, CLT, PHL, and PHX.

,,,and under the JV, BA to London.


User currently offlineFlytravel From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 873 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2017 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 12):

I do wonder if WN may pull out of IAD as they are about to get a whole bunch of slots at DCA? Perhaps they will keep their DEN flights as this is still out of perimeter. B6 could end their flights to JFK, perhaps BOS too, leaving only Oakland and LGB.

I think WN will keep IAD just for DEN, so 5 daily departures - 2 atleast to DEN, and 3 going elsewhere (maybe 2x MDW and 1x MCO), while DCA gets something like 6x MDW, assuming WN gets some slots. Is 5 departures the minimum to keep an original WN station, like CRP?

As for B6, if it makes a DCA-BOS shuttle, would it need IAD? I agree that I don't see IAD-JFK/BOS and then if it's just seasonal OAK, it's likely not worthwhile. I'd rather see EWR-OAK on B6 but that'd require B6 using an EWR slot pair.

I do wonder if NK would consider both BWI and IAD mainly as spokes to the DC area for focuses out west (DFW, LAS, let's say PHX) and FLL. While NK doesn't typically service two airports per region, it services both PHL and ACY.

[Edited 2013-11-14 17:54:20]

User currently offlineaajfksjubklyn From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 901 posts, RR: 1
Reply 38, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1906 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 19):

Flying AA's 738's are miserable. Their new first seats are the worst. I don't know what they don't listen to their customers. I receive a dam survey every time I am on a 738. They must be inundated with complaints. These seats are worse than Coach. Seriously. I won't buy a F ticket any longer if it's a 738. My back tells me not too.


User currently offlinescorpy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 400 posts, RR: 1
Reply 39, posted (8 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1847 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 21):
why should Washingtonians care what other world cities do? We have an amazing airport near the center of town, and that's how we like it. Regardless of what London does, Washingtonians have a legitimate reason to declare Dulles "inconvenient" because we know what convenient looks like. It looks like DCA.

It's common on this board to brand Dulles a white elephant, and that might be true for government traffic or people who live/work in the district. But the area around Dulles has grown significantly in the last 10 years. Being in the IT industry, I travel to the washington area regularly and Dulles is the far more convenient airport for IT, Aerospace, some pharma companies and so on. Not to mention the wealthy neighborhoods around fairfax county.


User currently offlineMesaFlyGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2927 posts, RR: 4
Reply 40, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 1840 times:
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Quoting Flytravel (Reply 37):
While NK doesn't typically service two airports per region, it services both PHL and ACY.

I've noticed NK moving into more mainstream airports and not really caring about their previous morals about service. (PHL/ACY, LGA/ISP (even though that ended), FLL/PBI).



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User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 41, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 1822 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 22):
IAD-FRA...no way that Oneworld want to duke it out between two Star hubs.
IAD-MAD...it's been tried before by IB and UA (using EI metal) and failed both times. Not sure the merger helps much.

You do realize that AA just merged with US, right? WASHINGTON, the City, now has a huge base of oneworld elites. Oneworld might choose to fly where these elites want to go. And if that's Frankfurt...

As for MAD, I feel that could be a no-brainer, though I do agree that it is more likely on IB and not AA.



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User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4229 posts, RR: 1
Reply 42, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 1719 times:
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Quoting aajfksjubklyn (Reply 38):
Their new first seats are the worst. I don't know what they don't listen to their customers. I receive a dam survey every time I am on a 738. They must be inundated with complaints. These seats are worse than Coach. Seriously. I won't buy a F ticket any longer if it's a 738. My back tells me not too.

You speak the truth.

I'd rather do F class on a Maddog.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6576 posts, RR: 24
Reply 43, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1512 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 41):
You do realize that AA just merged with US, right? WASHINGTON, the City, now has a huge base of oneworld elites. Oneworld might choose to fly where these elites want to go. And if that's Frankfurt.

With UA/LH flying IAD-FRA anywhere from 3-5x daily, I just don't see it happening.

Quoting D L X (Reply 41):
As for MAD, I feel that could be a no-brainer, though I do agree that it is more likely on IB and not AA.

Maybe, but MAD has a few problems. There's not much of a business connection between the DC area and MAD/Spain. Most of the US elites in the Washington area are heavily tied to US government related travel and Spain doesn't generate that much US government travel. Most traffic to MAD is leisure and tough to make money off of without massive hub feed which AA won't have at IAD. So maybe IB will take another stab, but outside of the summer months, I don't see it working.


User currently offlinejetblastdubai From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 629 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1408 times:
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Quoting D L X (Reply 41):
You do realize that AA just merged with US, right? WASHINGTON, the City, now has a huge base of oneworld elites

AA won't get all the Star elites. For those that probably fly short and long-hauls out of DC and split their travel between DCA and IAD, a lot probably are/were UA elites and if they flew on US equipment it's very possible that they booked their itinerary on the code share flight number. Instead of booking on US123, they'd book the exact same flight but only as UA3245 to gain the most benefit on a single award program.

Government travel may dictate where a lot of these passengers end up depending on who keeps the contract carrier status. If losing slots causes AA to pull out of a number of DCA markets, IAD probably offers an alternative non-stop option.


User currently offlinea380787 From Canada, joined Jul 2013, 964 posts, RR: 0
Reply 45, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1316 times:

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 44):
AA won't get all the Star elites. For those that probably fly short and long-hauls out of DC and split their travel between DCA and IAD, a lot probably are/were UA elites and if they flew on US equipment it's very possible that they booked their itinerary on the code share flight number. Instead of booking on US123, they'd book the exact same flight but only as UA3245 to gain the most benefit on a single award program.

Government travel may dictate where a lot of these passengers end up depending on who keeps the contract carrier status. If losing slots causes AA to pull out of a number of DCA markets, IAD probably offers an alternative non-stop option.

I think the mix is definitely more UA-elites flying US/DCA for convenience than US-elites flying UA for transcon/long-haul only. The idea of fully switching alliances is not one that all FFs are comfortable with, so I don't see a massive migration of Star elites over to oneworld other than those who are truly loyal to US Air alone.


User currently offlinePDPsol From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1110 posts, RR: 6
Reply 46, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1284 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 43):
So maybe IB will take another stab, but outside of the summer months, I don't see it working.

Not happening anytime soon, as IB has bigger issues to focus its attention on than re-starting the IAD market. IB has two key markets in the United States, JFK and MIA, and will spend its time on those routes and restructuring its entire TATL to the Americas before going after IAD. B

Quoting scorpy (Reply 39):
It's common on this board to brand Dulles a white elephant, and that might be true for government traffic or people who live/work in the district. But the area around Dulles has grown significantly in the last 10 years. Being in the IT industry, I travel to the washington area regularly and Dulles is the far more convenient airport for IT, Aerospace, some pharma companies and so on. Not to mention the wealthy neighborhoods around fairfax county.

I have been traveling from IAD since the 70's, when I was a small child and believe the facility is among the best on the East Coast. The Washington metro region is an excellent market, with tremendous growth in new industries, including information technology and telecom sectors you mention.

Unfortunately, UA, as the leading carrier at IAD, has yet to fully realize the potential of this airport and its market.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 47, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1232 times:

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 44):
AA won't get all the Star elites.

I'm not talking about STAR elites. I'm talking about the US Airways elites based in the DC area, and yes, there are a lot of them.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 44):
For those that probably fly short and long-hauls out of DC and split their travel between DCA and IAD, a lot probably are/were UA elites

I bet a lot more were US elites. The overall benefits were likely better unless you were flying dramatically more international than domestic.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 44):
Instead of booking on US123, they'd book the exact same flight but only as UA3245 to gain the most benefit on a single award program.

I disagree completely because in Star, it did not matter which code you booked, US or UA. You still got your miles. What did matter was which program you were in. If you were in US's ff program, and you flew on US metal (even if you booked UA123), you were in the upgrade queue. If you were in UA's ff program flying on US metal, you were not in the upgrade queue. The same was true in reverse with flying on UA metal.

UA's domestic network out of IAD is not all that. US's out of DCA is quite good, with the obvious exception of the west coast. So, people decided which FF program they were in based on where they were flying and their upgrade benefits. Getting upgraded on UA's international flights was not a particularly likely event unless you were a top dog flying with them. Getting upgraded on US's flights was a lot easier. That's why I don't think it will be an even split. I bet what we would actually find is that a LOT of the fliers on UA out of IAD were actually crediting to their US FF accounts.



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User currently offlinejetblastdubai From United States of America, joined Aug 2013, 629 posts, RR: 0
Reply 48, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1152 times:
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Quoting D L X (Reply 47):
I disagree completely because in Star, it did not matter which code you booked, US or UA. You still got your miles.

Miles are one thing but status is another. Since 2012, US miles did not count towards United Million Mile Flyer status so you can bet that people trying to earn that milestone were booking on the UA code.

From ual.com:
Will Premier qualifying miles (PQM) count toward Million Miler qualification?
No. As of January 1, 2012, only flight miles on United or Copa will count toward Million Miler qualification. However, a member’s starting balance on January 1 does include all Premier qualifying activity — including bonuses and partner activity — earned in the MileagePlus and OnePass programs through December 31, 2011.

++++++++
Sure there are pax that were more loyal US customers but they weren't exclusive and I didn't suggest otherwise. I only made the observation that 100% of the Star FF weren't going to OW.

It's obvious you don't like UA and that's fine but making bets that are literally impossible to prove or disprove doesn't help the discussion.

Quoting D L X (Reply 47):
Getting upgraded on UA's international flights was not a particularly likely event unless you were a top dog flying with them. Getting upgraded on US's flights was a lot easier

Maybe that's because the upgraded cabins were already filled with full-fare pax on UA and US didn't fill the front end. No one leaves with empty premiem seats if pax are willing to shell out for them.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11207 posts, RR: 52
Reply 49, posted (8 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1076 times:

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 48):
Miles are one thing but status is another. Since 2012, US miles did not count towards United Million Mile Flyer status so you can bet that people trying to earn that milestone were booking on the UA code.

Unless you're saying that you got credit towards United Million Mile Flyer status when you flew a United codeshare on a US Airways flight, this is nothing new. For one, US has million mile lifetime status as well. Second, miles earned on either airline were elite qualifying miles in either FF system. The primary reason frequent fliers choose one program over another is the upgrades, since the mile earning is pretty comparable across all the programs in the US.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 48):
Sure there are pax that were more loyal US customers but they weren't exclusive and I didn't suggest otherwise.

Not once have I suggested that all of United's elites are going to switch to oneworld, so I'm really not understanding your argument.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 48):
It's obvious you don't like UA

I fly them frequently. I do not dislike UA, but I also know that having chosen US's FF program, UA will not treat me nearly as well as AA and US will once the merger closes. I'm not the only one that therefore will make the decision to fly oneworld due to my current US status.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 48):
Quoting D L X (Reply 47):
Getting upgraded on UA's international flights was not a particularly likely event unless you were a top dog flying with them. Getting upgraded on US's flights was a lot easier

Maybe that's because the upgraded cabins were already filled with full-fare pax on UA and US didn't fill the front end. No one leaves with empty premiem seats if pax are willing to shell out for them.

No, it's because international upgrades (across all airlines) are tougher to get complimentarily. Remember, we were talking about Washingtonians choosing a FF program. If my premise is correct that people choose a program for the upgrades, it suggests that Washingtonians that primarily fly domestically and Washingtonians that only occasionally fly internationally would choose US's FF program because it has more benefits on the markets they can actually get an upgrade on. If we're talking about customers that primarily fly internationally out of DC (or live closer to Dulles), I would suspect that UA would do better at getting those customers to join their FF program.



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