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Will DL Be The New King Of A330s?  
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 18418 times:

Well, we all know DL is the undisputed king of the 767, operating the worlds largest fleet largely to expand their vast international network to far flung corners of the globe for minimal capital outlay. A huge chunk of the fleet came second hand after careers at other carriers as vast as SAS to Gulf Air, with DL having no issues operating various configurations in terms of both engines and door configurations, one of a mere 2 operators of the 764 and one to seriously invest in their interior modernisation. A classic move straight out of the old Northwest Airlines Playbook ala DC-10s.

Now DL have done what many said was unthinkable and ordered the A330 new (showing their commitment to the type.. but being delta you can safely add "only at the right price") and knowing the A332 in particular can do everything the 763 can do, but fly further and carry more for only a very small increase in operating expenses, and if its within the 333 limits it basically carriers another 25% more with a small operating difference this type is very useful. We know DL doesn't have a problem with multiple engine types especially when it operates large fleets of the type, so with the 787 and the A350 coming on line, quite a few A330s should come onto the market. For instance, The entire SQ fleet will come off lease and its highly likely they won't be renewed. Jetstars entire fleet will go to Qantas. Malaysia Airlines will dispose of its earlier build ones (prime candidates for new interiors) Finnair will move to the a350, and its highly likely the A340s will go first but i'd expect the a330s to go too. TAM's not renewing the lease of their oldest ones, And with 787 and A350 orders i'd expect the newer ones to follow suit eventually. Right now, the A330 is one of the hottest pieces of real estate on the planet, and second hand ones are snapped up quick, but, that is about to change.

DL's strategy of "disciplined capital investment" is well known. It would seem in 3 or 4 years time, a huge amount of A330s could come on the market. SIA's fleet alone, despite the engine issue, would seem like an ideal number to replace early 767s. What's anybody's thoughts? Will DL become the world's next largest A330 operator (i believe cathay/dragonair hold that atm)

29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTheRedBaron From Mexico, joined Mar 2005, 2211 posts, RR: 8
Reply 1, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 18099 times:

It may be possible specially as DL likes to keep Capital expenditures controlled. If other big USA carriers modernize too much, DL may have to make a mix of new metal for high yield/international routes and use A332 for other tasks.

If the unthinkable happens (UA buying or leasing a small fleet of A380 -from Doric for example), then other carriers may have to consider using newer metal to compete (A350/787/77X).

DL now has a formidable opponent after the AA/UsAir merger, so I think they will make adjustments to their fleet plans, and yes I think they would make a great investment in the A332 / A333 but also buying new metal in small chunks not in huge super orders (like EK).

TRB



The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7474 posts, RR: 18
Reply 2, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 18020 times:

In terms of quality wise, they really turned NW's fleet into something that is truly DL. I flew on it back in 2011, on a pre-mod 332, and it was awful. the seats sucked, interior lighting was bad, and the entertainment device was broken- you couldn't even turn it off if you wanted to sleep! I flew on it again this summer and it was magical. Seriously. A huge step in the right direction.


次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 17800 times:

http://youtu.be/KWTb3eWxXGo

This is what they've done with the 332. Quite impressive in my opinion compared to what it was. I think i'd ditch the leather on the C class seat though.


User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 17529 times:

I doubt it, frankly. The 717 and MD-90 acquisitions were of orphan types - very few produced, in the hands of a few operators and thus market prices didn't reflect full value of use to a large carrier with a diverse network like Delta. The OP himself acknowledges that used A330s are being snapped up quickly, suggesting a much more efficient 2nd-hand market.

The 717 lease, in particular, reflected a unique opportunity to get a large number of aircraft from a single user in a single transaction, and that user had a pathological desire (demonstrated by a willingness to spend $140 million to refurb the aircraft for Delta) to be rid of them. (Then it closed down a number of stations that were too small to be served by 737s... but that's a topic for another thread.)

Add in the problem that A330-300s are really too much of an upgauge for the many 767-300ER routes, and that A330-200s are really going to be handicapped in fuel efficiency vs. 787-8s and 787-9s, and the 2nd-hand thesis grows even less compelling.


User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 17260 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 4):
Add in the problem that A330-300s are really too much of an upgauge for the many 767-300ER routes, and that A330-200s are really going to be handicapped in fuel efficiency vs. 787-8s and 787-9s, and the 2nd-hand thesis grows even less compelling.

I'm not so sure. In terms of CASM the jump from the 763 to the 332 is like the 332 to the 788 yet DL continued to make money. and the A333... its like the difference between operating the 737-700 and the 737-800.... hardly anything but the increase in capacity is a huge jump in revenue. If the seats don't cost you much extra or anything extra to carry around having them empty or discounted isn't a risk. The fact remains though, there will be a huge amount of A330s who's leases won't be renewed, as boeing went and sold over 800 787s. If the capital cost is low enough, that goes a significant part of the way to justifying the higher fuel consumption. the capital part is important as, even if the overall profit is lower per flight, if it means DL can operate double the amount of aircraft for the same investment it may still come out ontop. Fuel prices obviously will play a big part. From what I'm reading, the 787-8 isn't going to beat the A330 buy a huge margin anyway, however many carriers are already committed to the type. The stretched versions however will probably deliver significant improvements in CASM, but it comes with an increase in capacity.


User currently offlineMSPNWA From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1936 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 16692 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
A huge chunk of the fleet came second hand after careers at other carriers as vast as SAS to Gulf Air

By my count just seven of the 767s (all 763s) were not ordered by DL. And all of those acquisitions came in the 90s when the planes were no more than about 7 years old. I just don't see a past occurrences as reasons to believe DL will do it again. Widebodies just don't change hands like that anymore. DL isn't going to be looking at leasing an old frame. And generally old lease returns go straight to the boneyard. I don't think again we'll see the days of grabbing an aging second hand widebody fleet like NW did with the DC-10-30. Plus, is an A330 going to be flying 25-30 years?

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):

DL kinda of neglected the A330s until now. Hard to believe, but every DL A330 has now spent more time flying after the NW acquisition was announced than before. The only real change was installing leather seat covers that didn't match the existing seats well, so it was a big downgrade in my view. They're finally getting the attention they've needed.


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5410 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 16459 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
DL's strategy of "disciplined capital investment" is well known. It would seem in 3 or 4 years time, a huge amount of A330s could come on the market. SIA's fleet alone, despite the engine issue, would seem like an ideal number to replace early 767s

I don't think DL would be interested in just any A330. With 20 x 787-8 already on order for delivery in the timeframe when they expect to be retiring the earliest 767-300ERs, the A332 would seem redundant. They have had trouble finding enough appropriate routes for their 2003-vintage A333 frames because of lack of range. The new A333s they just ordered have the 242 t MTOW, which cannot be retrofitted to earlier 233 t frames and which substantially increases range -- enough to use the birds reliably on shorter Pacific routes beyond SEA-NRT. So DL would really want brand-new A333s if it were to add more A330s, not random used frames. My own expectation is that beyond the timeframe of the existing A333 order, they would choose 787-9s instead.

[Edited 2013-11-14 08:23:45]

User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 15650 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 7):
ith 20 x 787-8 already on order for delivery in the timeframe when they expect to be retiring the earliest 767-300ERs,

I am surprised how anti airbus some US posters remain. 20x...... 787... vers about 95 767. The A332/3 falls in value significantly, yet it can do the majority of what the 763 can do, albiet offering lower CASM but needing a slightly higher load. come on a fleet that size there's got to be room for another 30 or so A330s? As for routes for 333s with lack of range... they have the entire whole of europe and a good chunk of south america. isn't that SA)">AA's bread and butter... SA with its higher yeilds?


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5410 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 15449 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 8):
I am surprised how anti airbus some US posters remain.

Not anti-Airbus at all. Just realistic. The fundamental problem is that the only A330s that will be attractive to them are 2015 and later A333 builds, and those are not the ones that will be heavy on the used market.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 8):
20x...... 787... vers about 95 767.

The 95 767s will be replaced over the entire decade of the 2020s. I'm sure there will be more 787 orders. By that time, the A350 will be well established in service and there might also be an A350 order. The A330 will be old news.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 8):
As for routes for 333s with lack of range... they have the entire whole of europe and a good chunk of south america.

So far, they have found the 333 too big for many of those routes. Usage of the 333 fleet has been lower than many other types in the fleet, particularly the slightly smaller 332 and 764. Perhaps that will change with future growth.

[Edited 2013-11-14 09:11:11]

[Edited 2013-11-14 09:12:08]

User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1082 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12735 times:
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If Delta acquires any used aircraft in the future, Delta will cherry pick the available aircraft. No hanger queens or high cycle aircraft will be considered.
Northwest Airlines bought/leased the DC-9s in the nineties as they were cheap to acquire and wanted to replace the Boeing 727s. Also, they had a large number of DC-9s that came with the merger with Republic Airlines in 1986.
Northwest Airlines obtained the DC-10-30 as a replacement for the DC-10- 40s it operated as they were beginning to be high cycle aircraft, but most importantly as they were Pratt powered and parts were being to be harder to obtain and could cost two to three times the price of the equivalent of a part used on a GE powered DC-10-30.
Northwest originally bought the DC-10-40 with the Pratt JT9D-20 engine as it was basically the same engine as what was use on their 747s. But for some reason Northwest stopped using them on international flights and began flying them domestically, which they were not originally bought for. I kept wonder why Northwest was flying a DC-10-40, with about 234 seats and Eastern Airlines was flying an A300 domestically with a few seats less, but only powered by two engines.   


User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12661 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 8):
I am surprised how anti airbus some US posters remain.

So now if someone disagrees with you they are an anti-Airbus US poster?  

Knock me over with a feather......

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineZKCIF From Lithuania, joined Oct 2010, 296 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11421 times:

What flight distance is the "sweet spot" for 764? thank You.

User currently online1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6490 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11377 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 17):
What flight distance is the "sweet spot" for 764? thank You.

Pretty much all the transatlantic routes it flies for DL, that is, routes that don't require the additional range or cargo capacity of the A332. Plus, the 764 also has a higher J to Y ratio, and thus generates a greater fare premium on the high yielding routes than the A332 would. This is why DL generally deploys the 764 on its highest yielding transatlantic routes while the A330s are generally deployed on more leisure-oriented routes.

[Edited 2013-11-14 12:46:24]


The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1082 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10489 times:
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One advantage of the A330 has over the 767 is that it is a full wide body aircraft. It can carry two LD-3 containers side by side, where the 767 needs to use the smaller LD-3A container to carry two side by side. This was a real pain for some airlines when the 767 first came to.
Other than that they both have their good and bad points. Both are still being built. However the 767 is mainly being built as a freighter.  


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5249 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10097 times:

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 6):
By my count just seven of the 767s (all 763s) were not ordered by DL. And all of those acquisitions came in the 90s when the planes were no more than about 7 years old.

Correct. As I've mentioned many times on this forum, the whole idea of DL and used aircraft has been blown way, way out of proportion on a.net (as most things tend to be on this site). They bought up a bunch of frames of 2 orphan fleets that no one else really wanted. There are myriad examples of DL purchasing brand new aircraft (the recent 739, 333, and 321 purchases, for instance), and DL will continue to do so in the future. Not to pick on OP for mentioning that since he's hardly the only one, but we do need to keep the whole DL buying used aircraft thing in perspective.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 6):
DL kinda of neglected the A330s until now. Hard to believe, but every DL A330 has now spent more time flying after the NW acquisition was announced than before. The only real change was installing leather seat covers that didn't match the existing seats well, so it was a big downgrade in my view. They're finally getting the attention they've needed.

Well that's likely because they were newer than most of DL's wide bodies and offered many of the amenities that DL was installing across the wide body fleet. For instance, they already had angled lie-flat seats in J and AVOD throughout, so they weren't in as desperate a need for upgrading as some of DL's older aircraft. Once they got those fleets underway, the A330 followed. It wasn't really a an instance of neglect.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently online1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6490 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9750 times:

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 19):
One advantage of the A330 has over the 767 is that it is a full wide body aircraft. It can carry two LD-3 containers side by side, where the 767 needs to use the smaller LD-3A container to carry two side by side. This was a real pain for some airlines when the 767 first came to.
Other than that they both have their good and bad points. Both are still being built. However the 767 is mainly being built as a freighter.

However, this is a wash for DL, since DL already operates a huge fleet of 767s.



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineflyinggoat From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 155 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9002 times:

The A330s are a great fit for them now, but, in my opinion, the 787s will make up the vast majority of DL's future long haul fleet. As the 787 arrive, they will replace the 767s and, eventually, the A330s and 772s (LRs will probably stay on for a bit longer though).

In 20 years, I could see DL as one of the largest 787 operators in the world, with a fleet of -8,-9, and -10 models. I could also see a handful of 777-8/9X or A359R/A351 as well.

Just my $.02.


User currently offlineAFGMEL From Australia, joined Jul 2007, 744 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 8681 times:

Looks very nice inside. The C seats look narrow and uncomfortable, but as I have never flown DL I don't know if that's true.


B 727-44/200 732/3/4/8/9 767-3 742/3/4, 772/3, A319/20/21 332/333 342/3 , DC3/4/10, F28/50/100, ATR72
User currently offlineCentre From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 489 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 8435 times:

Quoting Lufthansa (Thread starter):
Now DL have done what many said was unthinkable and ordered the A330 new (showing their commitment to the type.. but being delta you can safely add "only at the right price")

I think the lack of used frames on the open market and their immediate need for the type was a decisive factor in ordering the A330 new.



I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7832 times:

Quoting Centre (Reply 20):
I think the lack of used frames on the open market and their immediate need for the type was a decisive factor in ordering the A330 new

Yep this is exactly my point. Getting your hand on more than 1 or 2 second hand A330s at the moment isn't easy, the aircraft is in high demand and people are demanding a premium for it. That will change soon. And.. I appreciate most think DL will want the new higher gross weight versions which i think would be particularly useful to Asia, Europe and a good chunk of Latam can still be done with the other versions. Now if these birds drop to half of their current value, I could see the potential for them.

Of course the 787-10 in particular is going to have good economics (though fall short on the range but this may not be an issue on many routes) however I can't see how this would be different to them picking up MD-90s. Yes, the MD-90 was a bit of an orphan type. But it enabled cheap expansion with competitive technology. It wasn't the very best in terms of available technology but it was cost competitive to operate... exactly the situation with the A330! The other thing to also remember, is there's a very long wait for new 787s. The order book is huge and boeing is hopelessly behind schedule.


User currently offlinemichman From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 504 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 5648 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
In terms of quality wise, they really turned NW's fleet into something that is truly DL. I flew on it back in 2011, on a pre-mod 332, and it was awful. the seats sucked, interior lighting was bad, and the entertainment device was broken- you couldn't even turn it off if you wanted to sleep! I flew on it again this summer and it was magical. Seriously. A huge step in the right direction.

Oh, please. The improvements to the A330's are nice, but compared to DL's large 763ER fleet at the time of the merger they were already quite a bit ahead in amenities.


User currently offlinegigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 5273 times:

I see absolutely no reason to believe Delta is getting any 787s any time in the future.

NS


User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 23, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 5273 times:

Quoting AFGMEL (Reply 18):
The C seats look narrow and uncomfortable, but as I have never flown DL I don't know if that's true.

You don't 'find them cold and sterile', as others have said? I've yet to fly on a modded DL 330, but I like the 764 J seats as opposed to the 763 J seats, however, both are equally comfortable, especially for the price I pay.



Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5410 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (9 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 5224 times:

Quoting gigneil (Reply 22):
I see absolutely no reason to believe Delta is getting any 787s any time in the future.

Other than the 20 they have on order, for delivery between 2020 and 2022, right when they are going to be needing 763ER replacements? That seems like a pretty good reason to think they'll get them.

They could have rolled those orders into the 739ER order. They chose not to.

[Edited 2013-11-14 21:23:00]

User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1876 posts, RR: 4
Reply 25, posted (9 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4934 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 13):
This is why DL generally deploys the 764 on its highest yielding transatlantic routes while the A330s are generally deployed on more leisure-oriented routes.

Amsterdam is hardly leisure-oriented destination, yet most of Delta A330s end up flying there.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4195 posts, RR: 37
Reply 26, posted (9 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4804 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 25):
Amsterdam is hardly leisure-oriented destination, yet most of Delta A330s end up flying there.

Accra and Mumbai are known for their high volume of leisure traffic, too.  



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 27, posted (9 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4572 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 24):
Other than the 20 they have on order, for delivery between 2020 and 2022, right when they are going to be needing 763ER replacements? That seems like a pretty good reason to think they'll get them.

this is just it. 2020 is still quite a fair way off. And they'll need a lot more than 20. that's at least 50 short. Although new interiors are expensive, if DL only gets 3 or 4 years work out of each of these aircraft it was still a worthwhile exercise in terms of the 767 because it keeps its premium image and product competitive... the premium pax won't fly regularly in beaten up looking aircraft. QF did it for the 3 744s that are 1999 build just this year, with the full expectation that they're only going to stick around another 3 or 4 years max. it was necessary to maintain a premium image (and larger cabins full of J class pax paying more than the competition). That overhall probably cost about 10 million a plane (it is the 744 we're talking here its big) if we give that a service life of about 4 years, that's 200K per month per plane. In other words, not even the lease price of a new 737 (and remember these birds are paid for so they're not costing much to have about). Well worth it. Now a 767 is only about half the size and DL hasn't spent as much per pax in terms of interior furnishing and hard product as QF did (no mood lighting, J class seat for DL is more 'off the shelf' with less expensive tailored options, no self service bars in J or Y, no premium economy class - but both did new bins, side walls, seats, entertainment sytem, lavs and bulkheads) so I think you could saftely halve the QF cost per airframe in terms with the 763 being about half the size of the 744. If DL only gets 3 or 4 years out of each, that's about 100K a month for aircraft already paid for, hardly a huge financial risk. if say come 2016 DL took another 20 A330s in addition to the ten new ones ordered, that would give them a good strong fleet of about 60, allow them to retire the oldest build 763s and the newer ones can continue on until the already ordered 787s arrive. That would defer the need to place a second 787 order for quite some time in the future when DL would be in a position to get a much better deal, and aircraft like the 787-10 also start rolling off the line, while DL is able to avoid the huge capital expenditure required for new 787s.


User currently offlinePacific From Hong Kong, joined Mar 2000, 1051 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (9 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3316 times:

The "not enough range" for the A330-300 seems to be a credible issue as the 233t version has a max payload range deficit of approx 50-100nm to the 767-400ER, according to the payload-range charts from the respective manufacturers. Interestingly, the 233t A333 flies approx 75nm further in a pax-only load.

Yet DL never topped up the orders of these CASM-kings until Airbus came up with the 242t A330-300.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7565 posts, RR: 28
Reply 29, posted (9 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1990 times:

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 13):
This is why DL generally deploys the 764 on its highest yielding transatlantic routes while the A330s are generally deployed on more leisure-oriented routes.

That just is not true.

DL deploys the A330 on its highest density routes, as it is the most cost-effective aircraft to move 290 people. Hence why it is used a lot on Trans-Atlantic into AMS, CDG, and FCO.


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