DeltaOwnsAll From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1173 posts, RR: 1 Posted (11 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1550 times:
In light of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America...there have been many conversations on the topic of what airlines will survive. But, I have yet to see a whole topic devoted to the issue, so I decided that I would make one. Here is where you can voice your opinion on who will survive, who will go down, and why. What about the liabilities of AA and UA? Will there be any for the loss of the multi-billion dollar WTC disaster, or the 800 million dollar Pentagon project? CAN AA and UA really be held liable for this destruction? And if so...to what extent...and what could they do to ward off bankruptcy in light of the charges? My humble and not-so-fact-based opinion is that the government will not allow them to be held liable for the destruction...and that the country will end up paying for it. In turn, I believe that UA and AA will be fine. That brings up the topic of CO and DL. I personally think that they may have been in merger/strategic plan talks lately...as Leo Mullin has been "predicting" and asking for allowance of mergers and consolidation in the airline industry. However, I believe that they will stay as separate entities. So...out of the big six...that leaves us with US and NWA. From what I have heard about NWA, I believe that they will be OK. US, on the other hand...wow...what a bad situation. I would have to think that they will either get very small or be filing for chapter 11 very soon. As for the smaller airlines...and admittedly these are very scarcely educated guesses...I believe that SW will be just fine...Alaska will survive if not bought...Airtran will be ok...but AWA could have big problems. So...what do you think?
737doctor From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1332 posts, RR: 48 Reply 3, posted (11 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1488 times:
Yes, but I'm sure that you've seen the article in which it is stated that Southwest has enough credit to buy any one of the "Big 6".
I know that since we don't fly internationally, people think that we are not a major airline. But we bring in over one billion dollars in revenue per year which is the technical defintion of a major airline.
Maybe it should be the Big Seven...wait on second thought, nah.
Aloha 737-200 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (11 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1475 times:
OK, my opinion-
I totally agree with your statement "I believe that SW will be just fine...Alaska will survive if not bought...Airtran will be ok...but AWA could have big problems. So...what do you think"
I believe US will go down and UA will shrink. I think AA will suffer, then recover nearly fully, and the same for DL.
CO and DL cannot "merge" yet remain separate "entities", that is called a "trust", and is illegal. If they merge CO's identity will be wiped away, and it's planes repainted in DL colors. I hope they don't merge.
CO will fare well enough. They are hurt badly from this but I trust Gordon Bethune as much as I do Herb Kelleher, and I think Gordon has a few tricks up his sleeve yet.
I do believe Pan Am III and Frontier will be affected, but I'm not sure to what extent.
Aloha Airlines will shrink but will not die because ti's interisland flights are VITAL to the Hawaiian market. Not necessarily for tourists, but rather for residents of Hawaii, who commute between islands for work each day.
The state of Hawaii would not allow Hawaiian to gain a monopoly of interisland routes, which would skyrocket airfares, pushing the economy even lower.
Hawaiian will get strangled in the present, as the tourist market to Hawaii dwindles, but if they keep flying even at negative profits it'll pay off in about 6 months when I bet tourism booms again.
International airlines will probably only be hit on routes to and from America. The reductions you have seen from BA are routes to America. Swissair might survive. Sabena has no chance, I hate to say it, but none at all.
Sabena's done with.
Ansett MIGHT start back up, thought it will be very shaky and not what it used to be. ANZ, now 80% owned by the NZ government, will prominently recover, healthy and revitalized.
QANTAS- I don't know.
Asian airlines- Slightly hurt but not so much as European airlines.
Middle East Airlines- Hard to say. You might see a few of them shot down, a few go bankrupt, or nothing at all. Very hard to say.
In all, I think the industry will carry on as normal in all parts of the world except America, where you might see one or two more carriers fold before the industry stabilizes.
Oh and another thing. There was fear that Boeing would not make it through this a while back as their orders were cancelled, but Boeing will survive and the government will make sure of that. Airbus will not gain a worldwide monopoly. (Don't take that the wrong way I love Airbus and Boeing both)
And in this turmoil I think you'll see a few startup airlines picking up dropped routes from the majors. Alot of these startups will die quickly, some will survive.
That's about it for what I think is going to happen. Time will tell.
DeltaOwnsAll From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1173 posts, RR: 1 Reply 5, posted (11 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1466 times:
Aloha- Thanks for your opinions, I pretty much agree with all of them. Just one thing...I meant that I do not think that they will merge at all...and I too believe that Gordon has a few tricks up his sleeve...although I admit...I would like to see DL as the largest airline ever
Aloha 737-200 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (11 years 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1436 times:
Aw darnit! I was creating a hybrid Delta/CO livery for y'all and right as I hit "save as" my computer crashed!
That infuriates me when it happens!
OK, calm down...phew.
I'll tell ya what it looked like so you get an idea, I won't be bothered to create it all over again.
Imagine the Deltaflot scheme. Attach the gray bellie of CO with the gold strip. The gold tapers down toward the nose. The engines are blue, Continental Blue, with the globe logo in light sky blue in the background, gradient.
Was a very beautiful aircraft I made. I wish I would have been able to show you it. Was fantastic.