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Who To Go Next?  
User currently offlineIainhol From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1020 times:

My bet Olympic followed by Virgin all to take place in the next month. Olympic might get help from the gov, but no way Virgin will! The US-UK route is so fierce they can loose a couple good carriers!!
Iain

21 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAloha 737-200 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 947 times:

Last I heard Virgin was healthy and managing very well through all this.

Aloha 737-200!!  Wink/being sarcastic


User currently offlineBA DC-10 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2001, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 937 times:

I don't wish for any airlines to collapse, but I :

1) Olympic - been in trouble for a while
2) Virgin - Relies to heavily on North American market, too many new planes with high lease rates, no domestic or regional routes to bring feeder customers (like BA, BMI).
3) CO, NW or US - Ones got to go.
4) UA - massive over capacity.
5) Air Canada


User currently offlineIkarus From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 3524 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 930 times:

Wow. Iainhol's obsession with the evil Virgin Atlantic is reaching new heights. Another reason why these forums deteriorate: Some jerks have their own little hate-campaigns against specific airlines, aircraft types, aircraft manufacturers or users....


User currently offlineTransSwede From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 917 times:

More airlines that are hurting badly:

- Aer Lingus
- Alitalia


User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Reply 5, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 910 times:

TAP too

User currently offlineGKirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24947 posts, RR: 56
Reply 6, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 905 times:

BA also, are hurting badly. If you look at pprune.com there it says that BA could run out of money within 5 months!


When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
User currently offlineBA DC-10 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2001, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 904 times:

I don't see any hate campaign in this thread. The fact is simple, Virgin in suffering badly. Its major shareholders have not got the capital to inject funds, and unlike BA, the UK government would never give it emergency funding. Its unfortunate for Virgin, but its true.

User currently offlineIainhol From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 904 times:

Ikarus, this is not a hate campaign, just looking at some facts.

You also have to realise that Virgin does not have to realise figures like BA and others do as they a not a PLC. They can cover all of this up, until a much later stage. Also if you look at Virgins market the run down is:
Africa supports itself
Asia losses
Before September the north Atlantic market made the money for VS. Now with loads lower then ever before, and the comptetion as fierce, VS is in trouble!

BA does have tough times infront of them, however they are much more likely to get by. They have more eggs in more baskets then other airlines.

I also suspect bmi to stop transatlantic service in the next month, they could not have come in at a worse time.

UA does need to cut back the mess around the edges, but overall I suspect them to far OK. I doubt CO will go under as they made a profit last year when most airlines did not.

Just my thoughts!
Iain


User currently offlineCo/ba From United States of America, joined May 2001, 399 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 892 times:

I don't think any of the big 7 will go.

User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16307 posts, RR: 56
Reply 10, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 888 times:

I see the following as hurting the most. Not just financial losses but cash flow problems. Any could file for bankruptcy or simply collapse. Of course many of them were in trouble long before Sep 11th:

Air Canada
US Airways
Avianca
Aer Lingus
Sabena
Virgin Atlantic
Virgin Express
Olympic
Garuda
Sri Lankan
Philippines

All airlines are hurting but these seem to be hit particularly bad. I didn't include Midway, Reeve, Swissair, ANZ, Ansett as they've kinda capitulated already.







Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineBombayhog From United States of America, joined May 2001, 557 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 876 times:

It seems that certain people think that VS is doing fine, whereas others say it is headed for bankruptcy. I would really hate for VS to go under. Does anyone have anything besides speculation, i.e. some hard facts that indicate the state of the airline at the moment? I would be interested to know what's really going on with them. Thanks.

/gwl


User currently offlineThe_Greq From Netherlands, joined Sep 2000, 181 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 862 times:

I agree with everybody that Virgin is in a bad situation.
Because their main business is Atlantic flights.
But I don't think VS is one of the next airlines that will be bankrupted. On the other hand. Branson had more BIGGER troubles in his businesslife and they was always
a solution. And maybe some of you read the News part on this site.
A few British, Belgian and Dutch newspapers reported that Branson is in formel talks with Sabena and the Belgian governement for a stake-deal in Sabena.
So I don't think that Virgin is doing very bad business, but again they are in a uncomfertable situation.

By the way, the Sabena story is confirmed by friends of mine who work at Brussels Zaventem airport.

Kind Regards,

Gregor van der Made
Amsterdam, The Netherlands


User currently offlineIainhol From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 843 times:

I think the Sebena talk is just talk!
Iain


User currently offlineJetstreamer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2001, 329 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 818 times:

Why is is that people rub their hands in glee at the thought of another airline going bankrupt?!

A discussion like this is along the lines of the gutter journalism that appears in newspapers everyday. All long haul airlines are experiencing financial hardship at the moment. It does not mean that all or any of them are about to go out of business.



User currently offlineTransSwede From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 816 times:

I don't see any glee here about airlines going out of business. No aviation enthusiast likes it when people lose their jobs. (At least I hope not)

Were just trying to have a realistic discussion...


User currently offlineDoug_or From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3424 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (13 years 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 772 times:

lainhol- please realize that past profits are no longer relavent- weather a carrier earned or lost a couple mill earliar this year doesn't matter- they all will lose more than couple this year. what is relevent is cash reserves, an CO doesn't have as much as many experts think they should. (I'm no expert so I can't really weigh in)


When in doubt, one B pump off
User currently offlineIainhol From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (13 years 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 753 times:

Doug, you do have a point, most companies biggest problem is running out of cash. Southwest put $1.5 billion in the bank on Sept 12th, this meet $1 billion already in there, this was to keep the airline going through tough times!
Iain


User currently offlineAlitalia744 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 4753 posts, RR: 45
Reply 18, posted (13 years 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 739 times:

I suspect that UAL, CO, NWA and US will remain in some form or other through these tough times, some may merge.

In terms of Alitalia, Italy is still the majority shareholder, and Italian pride will not let their national airline fall.




Some see lines, others see between the lines.
User currently offlineVC-10 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 1999, 3702 posts, RR: 34
Reply 19, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 716 times:
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Virgin - Relies to heavily on North American market, too many new planes with high lease rates

You over look these new -400's would have been white tails if Virgin hadn't taken them so the lease rates are extremely adventagous. They are also more fuel efficient and need less maintenace than the Classics. Higher thrust engines also means they can carry more cargo so going someway to compensating for lower pax loads.


User currently offlineIronchain15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 669 times:

I honestly think that US Airways is next or National Airlines maybe.

User currently offlineVegas456 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 662 times:

Well the smaller airlines like National and Midwest Express are at a greater risk to go bankrupt than some of the larger airlines in my opinion. National is already under bankruptcy protection so they better turn it around. I personally hope that National doesn't go under, they have good service. Midway Airlines went under though.

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