A select few members have been making remarks towards others in the “Missing Malaysia Airlines 777 threads” for speculating about the fate of 9M-MRO, her crew and passengers. Given the fact that there is so much uncertainty going on at this stage, speculation is going to be a factor on this site and also at the biggest and greatest news corporations of the globe. At least until we all have a clearer picture. Is it a perfect situation – certainly not? That being said, we need to stay dynamic in a possible fast-changing situation.
It is not unique to this incident and if we go back in history and trace remarkable aviation events we will see that speculation has been an aspect, essential to some healthy debate. It is not the intention of the moderators to stifle the opinions of members that fall within the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. All that we kindly request from all our members is to stay within the site’s parameters. Please be respectful towards one another and let us all hope for the best possible outcome.
PLEASE KEEP IN MIND:
**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; could we please keep science fiction theories and content related to possible future movie rights out of these threads? ****
**** Please do not repeat questions and scenarios that were covered and discussed in previous threads and which do not contribute in a constructive manner towards the real topic any longer. ****
**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****
**** Once again please be respectful towards other users and keep the forum rules and regulations in mind when posting in the forums. Should there be any rule violations, please bring this to the attention of the moderators by making use of the “suggest deletion function”. ****
Enjoy the forums!
Regards and thanks for your co-operation,
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
giopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 113169 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 243):
"The obvious reason why the airplane hasn't been found - yet - is a track change. How drastic and how far is the biggest question we could ask."
The farthest they drifted off course without mayday, the less possible the initial event was devastating (as in explosion). But they couldnt have gone so far (more than 5+ minutes into emergency) without notifying of an emergency. Then again no sign of debris close to point where communication was lost.
The more days without debris findings, the less possible the initial event was devastating.
Either people looking for the plane are useless or blind, or the plane was taken over by passengers or crew for some mysterious reason.
SKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1872 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 112703 times:
Based purely on the eye-witness report from the oil rig, if the aircraft was a ball of fire, it indicates a pretty catastrophic event that kept the airframe relatively in tact. It would explain why it disappeared from the primary radar as communication systems got knocked out.
They really need to send a lot of SAR resource to that area.... There aren't many leads, so when you get something like this they should be jumping on it. Do you think they have flown out to the rig and interviewed the guy?
ltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13382 posts, RR: 16
Reply 7, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 112625 times:
This post was about the last in the previous thread, so let me repeat it here with an addition:
Who controls the ATC in Malaysia - the military or a civilian government agency ?
If the military, then it is no wonder their spokespersons are so defensive and acting confused, the top leaders are likely no matter what of losing their jobs or forced into retirement, in a place where being in the military means financial security and allows to have great power. If the Government, it may mean a turn in party control, so many current leaders lose their jobs and lose the financial security and power they provide. This event may bring out huge revelations of corruption and incompetence of both the military and government triggering major changes in key appointed and elected positions.
There is also the ugly possibility of a terror act by some group or nut individual even someone in the cockpit that went rogue.
We need a international well coordinated search to be done, one that has to bring together countries to ignore their issues among them, for example China and the USA, who have important interests (China with their citizens the majority of the pax on board, the flight going to their country, the USA as the a/c was made in the USA). In the end it will take a coordinated effort to search, verify possible evidence and to hopefully find the answers we need to prevent another disaster like this.
art From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3463 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 111366 times:
Copied from part 15
Quoting aw70 (Reply 249):
If you can potentially fly something the size of a T7 across the entire bloody country, and four days later they are still not sure whether that actually happened - in plain language that means your entire military airspace surveillance is worth precisely nothing.
I have been wondering how a large aircraft on an unexpected flight path towards Malaysia could not have set off alarm bells for the MAF. It seems to me quite possible that the lack of a response to an unidentified aircraft heading towards or reaching then overflying Malaysia has caused those who fell down on the job to suppress all information associated with this failing - in other words, that the MAF decided to keep quiet about this embarrassing lapse. It would be very diificult to own up now, wouldn't it?
I'm not saying that this is what happened, only that if if did, it could have led to the search being conducted in the wrong areas.
nupogodi From Canada, joined Mar 2014, 911 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 110423 times:
Quoting aw70 from previous thread: "If you can potentially fly something the size of a T7 across the entire bloody country, and four days later they are still not sure whether that actually happened - in plain language that means your entire military airspace surveillance is worth precisely nothing. Total garbage."
Amen, my man, amen. I'm so surprised at some people here saying we shouldn't judge the Malaysian authorities because we don't have better solutions ourselves? We don't have the data! They do -- or, SHOULD.
Vietnam pulling out most of their SAR resources and basically saying, "We can't get a line out to these guys, we don't even know what they know" while Vietnam has been extremely forthcoming about every single potential lead they had tells a lot.
The sooner the NTSB starts looking into those radar logs the better. Didn't the US have a warship in the region? There are also classified space-based assets at play, what did they track? The triple-seven reflects radar nicely, but who knows if there were radar sats watching the area (and we will likely never know).
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
liquidair From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 263 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 109895 times:
I want to know why Mandala doesn't buy them flying back over Malaysia.
with regards to the eyewitness report from the oil rig, I'd be amazed if you could spot a fire going out at 70km away. Even if the fire going out was point of impact, Jet A is volatile enough to keep burning. And there would be massive amounts of smoke, debris and other flights would have seen this in such clear skies.
Pihero, you talk about the redundancy of the electrical circuits... Are you hinting you think one of the pilots wanted a little joy ride and screwed up? Hence switching the transponder?
would certainly fit in with Mandala's main preoccupation with the FO... If something went wrong, they could have gone miles off course... To an area where there is less radar coverage.... Borneo maybe? Speculation again.... I fear you're right. We know nothing.
ChinaClipper40 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 190 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 109915 times:
After following this event on major media outlets (BBC, CBC, CNN) since its inception, and reading hundreds upon hundreds of posts in this forum, I am forced to one of the following conclusions:
1) The Malaysian authorities are deliberately hiding something very bad; something that would be horridly shocking to the rest of the world; or
2) The Malaysian authorities are kindergarten-level inept.
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 2002 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 109644 times:
I saw part of the last press conference from authorities.... it is really heartbreaking to see that essentially they don't have a clue about the whereabouts of the aircraft and the souls on board....this event is really amazing.
Let's hope the weather remains good enough in the área to keep the search teams working.... although I have the feeling that if we cross some timelines, part of the countries that are currently helping with resources will abandon the efforts making the things even worst....
Nav20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 17, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 109351 times:
Quoting art (Reply 9): I'm not saying that this is what happened, only that if if did, it could have led to the search being conducted in the wrong areas.
Agree, art. Came across this this afternoon. Given that the aircraft's intended course was north-east, towards mainland China, I can't for the life of me work out why the authorities would divert any resources at all to searching an area to the west-north-west, over the Malacca Strait?
Unless, of course, they suspect some sort of hijack?
PiedFly From Finland, joined Jan 2014, 10 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 109236 times:
I thought the media questions in that press conference were generally quite poor; they were either too easy to be dismissed, or were poorly phrased so that the panel could proceed by repeating some information.
Given the 'inexperienced' nature of the panel facing questions, some well thought out and constructed questions could've gleaned extra info. Of course, perhaps the right reporters were not indicated to ask as they already have reputations for pertinent questions.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4861 posts, RR: 78
Reply 20, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 108679 times:
I guess I need to make myself clear : I am not against speculations, however far-fetched they could be. I am just apalled by the lack of knowledge from aviation people.
And more than anything, I am against disparaging any country just because it doesn't belong to the western hemisphere.
With the pitiful amount of facts at our disposal, there is THE big question :
Why didn't the crew manage to contact one ATC about a seriouis problem ? ... and a corollary :
Why did ATC lose the flight's transponder ?
At IGARI, both K L and HCM were in radar coverage of the airway... yet both couldn't have a response from MH370's squawk.
There are not so many possibile occurrencies that answer these questions in a logical manner :
- One is a takeover from one of the flight deck crew members...
- Another is a fire in the electronic bay (s) of the airplane
... ... ... ... ... ...
As someone who studied aircraft systems, IFE in particular is one of the most vulnerable systems in an airliner...
BUt I'm speculating as much as most of us here...
aw70 From Austria, joined Mar 2014, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 107911 times:
Quoting art (Reply 9): I have been wondering how a large aircraft on an unexpected flight path towards Malaysia could not have set off alarm bells for the MAF.
Exactly this. And "setting off the alarm bells" would not necessarily mean that interceptors are sent up to investigate. In peacetime, few countries maintain fighters on 24/7 QRA. No idea whether the MAF has any planes on QRA at night, but given that the entire area is reasonably peaceful, and given that their resources are not overwhelmingly large, I would assume they do not.
However, military airspace surveillance should never sleep. Ever. And they have to know what is going on in their airspace. At all times. No excuses. If such surveillance is done competently, one of the most obvious things to set off all alarm bells within reach would be a significant radar contact that does not correlate with any ATC data. And few things would generate a stronger radar return than a T7, even with all transponders and such firmly off.
art From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3463 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 107320 times:
Officials investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER are tight-lipped about Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS) data reported by the aircraft.
Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation is examining ACARS data from the missing aircraft, but senior DCA officials declined to comment on their findings, if any. They also declined to say when ACARS data from flight MH370 will be released – or even if it will be.
In response to a question posed by Flightglobal about the aircraft’s ACARS data, one of the officials cited the “sensitivity of the investigations.”
polnebmit From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 1 month 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 108068 times:
I have to ask this question again or rephrase it since it doesn't seem that it was answered. Is there any information as to why it seems that 9M-MRO was grounded in KUL for an extended period of time after it came from HKG? According to FR24, 9M-MRO flew in from PEK hours earlier as MH371 before turning around as incident flight MH370, but interestingly flight MH370 to PEK using 9M-MRO had been cancelled the day before which makes it impossible to have it come in from PEK if it never got there in first place. If the cancelation is true, this means that 9M-MRO sat in KUL for an entire day between the incoming flight from HKG and before the incident flight since it never went to PEK the day before. Again, if this is true, what was the reason? Why was flight MH370 grounded the day before the incident flight? Mechanincal issues?
[Edited 2014-03-12 05:22:24]
: I dunno. At night over the ocean, you can see aircraft lights a long way. A fire would be more visible. Possibility 3) They aren't really that bad at
: I agree with you totally - and there is a third possibility: 3) Malaysian authorities have NOTHING to go on, can't figure out why, and are embarrasse
: Same is true for 150+ other countries on earth. Most countries don't have a need to build up their air defenses. Malaysia is a tiny peaceful country
: Maybe it has been already been answered but Why arent they searching over mainland Malaysia? Maybe some villager in some remote jungle area saw someth
: Strange this doesn't seem to have been discussed here before (at least I can't remember). But according to flightstats.com, on Friday, 7 March, fligh
: If I am not wrong, MAS CEO said they don't yet...When plane crashes first thing I would assume they would do is to check maintenance record and histo
: This is more of a technical set of questions than anything else, directed towards those with experience with radar and knowing how these systems work.
: I think perhaps with the amount of air traffic going across the peninsula a wreckage would have been spotted already?
: From the sound of previous reports, they only get engine data on 30-minute intervals. There was one report at takeoff, and a second report at climb t
: Does ARINC have access to the ACARS data in addition to the airline in question? This is not a rhetorical question. I don;t know the details of how AC
: I have a feeling that if the plane isn't found soon, the families might get so fed up with Malaysian that they'll sue them for the info that we all su
: Realizing that its easy to be a keyboard critic, I admit that I don't have the expertise to judge the credibility of the Malaysian authorities. I do h
: My impression is that this is the most likely. While I have yet to see any government agency in any country not have its share (or more than its shar
: The fire in the electronic bay should be the less probable of the two IMHO. This 777 was manufactured some years after the Swiss 111 crash, and the c
39 David L
: Then you have a lot of catching up to do. They haven't said they're certain of anything like that.
: After working myself through two dozen, rather uneducated posts, on the Malaysian press conference, finally somebody with a correct understanding of
: Agh, friend, it is not about disparaging the country or its people, just its government and their handling of the case. I think I speak for everyone
: The idea of a press conference is to pass information to the press, so why do they not say how many packets of data were sent by the ACARS system and
: CBS This Morning TV news show will be interviewing CPT Sully Sullinberger shortly. They have announced that he will be discussing missing 777. If USAe
: I came across this on a 777. http://www.aaib.gov.uk/publications/...2_2007__boeing_777_222__n786ua.cfm This event happening during cruise would be...
: I have done a quick overlay of the current search areas against the co-ordinates in the email and this area is currently not being searched? Who cont
: Meaning what, David-L? That I'm wrong, or that the Indonesian aviation authorities are way short of being 100% competent in many areas?
: The Malaysian Airforce has at best 36 interceptor aircraft, its likely that on any one day day they would be able to deploy less than half of them. M
: Well I would think that they still would have been able to send out a mayday or change the Squawk code or something like that,.
: We live in a world where technology is king and everyone believes to be being watched 24/7, in some way its still great that we as a human race still
: Back to simplicity. Of the trillions and trillions of words printed on this incident has it yet been printed in the public domain whether this aircraf
: 9M-MRO operated flight MH73 from HKG back to KUL before it operated as flight MH370 from KUL to PEK about 6 hours 26 minutes later. MH371 on March 8t
: What info are they supposed to be hiding? Do you think they know where the aircraft came down but are keeping it a secret? I don't have any reason to
53 David L
: No. Meaning the reason for extending the search to the Malacca Strait (no mention of "diverting resources") has been explained and discussed for a co
: IIRC, they do have some radar data indicating a heading change before the disappearance. A left turn. The search over towards the Malacca Straights w
: Quoting the Guardian: "An official gave the position of the last radar signal at 2.15am as 200 miles north west of the mainland. But he said this nee
: I would assume that as well.. But, lack of situational awareness... who knows.
: The 'cancelled' annotation for the 06 Mar on the 9M-MRO flightradar24 summary is an error. If you replay from 1650 UTC on 06 Mar you get 9M-MRO doing
58 David L
: Something that many are still failing to realise.
: Yup, I noticed this when I looked up 9M-MRO the day after the accident, I assumed that it was bad data or it was ferried back empty (which should hav
: Why would they start now? They haven't shown ANY discretion at all IMHO through out this entire thing. I agree with your statement though, discretion
: China is reported to divert 10 high-resolution satellites to scan the area: http://www.todayonline.com/world/asi...deploys-10-satellites-search-mh370
: Yes but N786UA ( the 777 involved in that incident ) was delivered in 1997, well before Swiss 111. Probably they used MPET in that aircraft and I'm n
: To judge how big the combined search areas are: 27.000 square miles/70.000 square kms are roughly the size of the German state of Bavaria or the US st
: Hi! I've been reading A.Net for a long time, but for this moment, I am intrigued to talk my own speculation (I know, it's tiring to see another specul
: Found this on NHK: http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20140312_26.html This is the interesting part: Here is my 100% speculative addition to