SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER [ rcair1 ]: EXTRACT FROM POST 66 IN THREAD 27
• Doing this as much to keep my brain aligned as to provide a data source.
• The facts have not changed much, however the is more data about track and time-line
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short.
First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off(See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are 2 paths the aircraft could have taken
• Path one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Path two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north path and light over the south path.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• There seems to be disagreement on if the ACARS was switched off, or if it was not expected to send more data.
• The Malaysian PM stated they had high confidence ACARS was turned off.
• But, Rolls Royce has not commented on if more ACARS reports would have been expected prior to landing.
• Turning off ACARS reportedly requires entering the EE bay which is not simple in flight.
• UPDATE per TriStarSteve,26, 186:Pilots can deselect ACARS transmission by VHF and SATCOM. This does not turn off the VHF and SATCOM, just stops ACARS from using them.
• The ACARS report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• UPDATE: Per the RR webpage a snapshot would be expected at takeoff, climb, cruise and summary post landing.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS was turned off, or the a/c did not land. It is not clear to me if the last report was climb or cruise.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat satellites.
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible routes have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna
Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two tracks predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north route is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
• We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.
I've deleted the sections on incompetence and false sitings - for brevity.
IN summary what we know is.
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.
What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.
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Regards and thanks for your co-operation,
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
The two sites according to the interview with Freescale are not even chip fabs they are final manufacturing and packaging plants. These are all likely process engineers and people working on making mfg and packaging more efficient and ironing out problems in high volume production to get products out the door in quantities and without problems quickly. This doesn't make them unimportant as process engineering is important but this is far from top secret work. (Also note how the chip fabs are all in the US) Third party companies or even the military itself can accept blank dies direct from the chip fab (diced of course) and package and test themselves. But doing chip fab yourself is very costly/capital intensive/important.
The engineering teams were likely moving between two plants and not doing anything particularly secret or even carrying anything of importance between the two plants. (You can get the same packaged devices from Digikey, Mouser, Newark, ...)
InsideMan From Vatican City, joined Aug 2011, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 71062 times:
I believe the Freescale story is a red herring just like the two guys with the stolen passports and the simulator....
Does anyone have a timeline for the pings and the other theoretical locations and not just the last one we saw in the media?
Based on the radar contact going NW near Pulau I can't make sense of the southern route, as that would mean whoever flew the plane had to go around Indonesia without another radar contact to get to the southern route. Depending on the time between radar contact and the last satellite ping that may be possible, but not really sensible, since there's nothing there but vast ocean and there are easier ways to go to vast areas of water later en route to Bejing.
Besides, what would be the reason to do that? If it's suicide taking 239 lifes with you, you want attention. If it's an act of terrorism you'd want people to notice too, as that's the whole point....
Hence the northern route is the only one that makes sense to me. If we had one or two more timestamps and potential locations for the pings it would be easy to confirm.
The question is why.... 777 parts too expensive in China? Re-engineering doesn't make a lot of sense to me, as you could just take any other 777 in china and keep it in lockdown after D-check indefinitely, besides the technology is decades old. So unless there is a specific system on board which is not allowed to be sold to China(?) I doubt this highly.
Does Blofeld have a secret lair with landing strip in the Chinese Desert? Maybe, but why didn't any chinese radar pick up anything?
Although I think Iran and China and both extremely unlikely destinations, and while I agree that the Freescale group seems an unworthy target for such an elaborate heist (if that is indeed what it is), I still think there was a possible motive lurking in the cargo hold.
If the intel is correct that MH370's cargo - alone among flights in KL that night - was not x-rayed, then knowing more about that might provide a clue.
tomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 70765 times:
Quoting InsideMan (Reply 2): Hence the northern route is the only one that makes sense to me. If we had one or two more timestamps and potential locations for the pings it would be easy to confirm.
I don't think the pings are going to get much more than what we have it took them probably days to even get the solution down to just those two possibilities. According to the news both areas are being considered possible so there must not be any other primary radar data yet to exclude or support either area.
Birdwatching From Germany, joined Sep 2003, 3855 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 69985 times:
So why can't anybody, official or not, provide a list of the cargo onboard?
Back when I worked at Lufthansa Cargo as a lowly summer intern 10 years ago, even I could access any flight's list of cargo in the computer, or even walk up to the large metal filing cabinets, pull out the corresponding air waybills and it would contain all the info you could think of, from the expeditor's address to the weight, description and customs info.
Why hasn't anybody done this for MH370?
All the things you probably hate about travelling are warm reminders that I'm home
BaconButty From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2013, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 68924 times:
Quoting tomlee (Reply 5): I don't think the pings are going to get much more than what we have it took them probably days to even get the solution down to just those two possibilities. According to the news both areas are being considered possible so there must not be any other primary radar data yet to exclude or support either area.
Given that we have a sequence of (hourly? half hourly) "pings" which each provide an arc, and we know an approximate speed of the aircraft, I would hope that those in possession of the satellite data (US/UK/Malaysia) would be looking at hypothetical routings that would be consistent with that sequence, and attempting to at least eliminate possibilities by corroboration with any primary radar en route - should the relevant nations be willing to share it.
jelliesR From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 93 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 68622 times:
I lived and worked in singapore for four years and had Malaysian friends. Being an opposition voice is a miserable existence and being a supporter of the opposition equally frustrating. I think this pilot had the motive, certainly the means and the opportunity. Why invent complex explanations before ruling this one out? I'd like to see the lone wolf theory ruled out, definitively, before wasting brain power on elaborate conspiracies or a heist that was apparently almost a perfect crime.
k83713 From Russia, joined Jul 2010, 157 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 68575 times:
Kidnapping engineers for any work in this way would be unheard way of hiring and I doubt they would collaborate efficiently in RnD after all they went through. Unless there are already special devices to scan brains to get all the data. Also level of their knowledge is still big question. No, this is from science fiction and action movies. I believe they probably were occasional passengers with their own goals, like refugees from Iran were, but it's not more than a feeling.
tomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 68266 times:
No body from the pilot's family moved out according to the news press conference, everyone laughs. (Who/which news agency reported the family moved out in the first place)
Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 7): So why can't anybody, official or not, provide a list of the cargo onboard?
Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.
Quoting BaconButty (Reply 8): Given that we have a sequence of (hourly? half hourly) "pings" which each provide an arc, and we know an approximate speed of the aircraft, I would hope that those in possession of the satellite data (US/UK/Malaysia) would be looking at hypothetical routings that would be consistent with that sequence, and attempting to at least eliminate possibilities by corroboration with any primary radar en route - should the relevant nations be willing to share it.
The hourly pings don't provide even a single location so the speed estimate would be literally be a range so large it wouldn't be very useful. (The exact location isn't known and it is probable the last ping was the only one to provide a good enough estimate solution, two areas is the best they got, I'm assuming)
noflies From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 67649 times:
Quoting tomlee (Reply 12): Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.
I thought they said that the cargo contains nothing "hazardous". Unless they said 'nothing of interest' early on (I missed a bit of it), seems to me that nothing 'hazardous' doesn't mean that there's nothing significant. Happy to be corrected.
The simplest explanation is the pilot flipped out, as train drivers and plane pilots have done, distressingly, before.
Absent simple mechanical explanations as candidate theories, how can anyone disagree with that?
Once you get to hijackings or a heist, it is whole level more of complexity.
I'd be curious to know if someone can actually argue a crazy pilot is NOT the simplest theory.
tomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 67454 times:
Quoting noflies (Reply 18): I thought they said that the cargo contains nothing "hazardous". Unless they said 'nothing of interest' early on (I missed a bit of it), seems to me that nothing 'hazardous' doesn't mean that there's nothing significant. Happy to be corrected.
What else would be interesting if there was something secret they won't exactly write (This box is secret, on the shipping manifest) Only hazardous goods, chemicals are the only thing a shipping manifest would show. Any illegal,secret stuff wouldn't be listed. Hence the cargo manifest contains nothing of interest.
ultrablue From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 4 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 67055 times:
Quoting tomlee (Reply 12): The hourly pings don't provide even a single location so the speed estimate would be literally be a range so large it wouldn't be very useful. (The exact location isn't known and it is probable the last ping was the only one to provide a good enough estimate solution, two areas is the best they got, I'm assuming)
If you assume the aircraft was flying at a constant speed in a straight line for the last few hours of flight, it would be a relatively straightforward process to calculate its flight path (i.e. assuming constant tangential velocity) - although it probably wouldn't help discriminate between the northern and southern alternatives.
tomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (10 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 66843 times:
Quoting jelliesR (Reply 20): I'd be curious to know if someone can actually argue a crazy pilot is NOT the simplest theory.
Well maybe something happened that affected communications and navigation and they tried to turn back but ended up following the wrong route back and ended up over the open waters on the other side and thought they would eventually reach land.
Pilot or someone (who no one knew could fly a plane or was involved in something bad) could have also done it. We don't know anything that would indicate the pilot or passengers from international perspective but that doesn't mean they know everyone absolutely.
What is clear is that stealing some secret cargo/top secret brains/the plane is not likely. Unfortunate as it is we probable will never know what happened at the handoff point as it is highly unlikely the CVR would keep that much data.
: I think it's really not obligatory that hijacking occured after "All right, good night". Since the flight was in Malay airspace and ATC tracked it, it
: The way I heard it, when asked whether the cargo had been screened, he said something like it SHOULD have all been screened (his emphasis). It sounde
: Completely agree, especially since the scenario is pretty similar to Silk Air flight 185.
: Assuming it was flying in a straight line is assuming a lot of things given the sat position estimate doesn't give a position or heading just a huge
: One could probably find "interesting" people on any given international flight and cobble together some kind of elaborate, dubious plot. Ha, try this
: The only thing that is interesting on a cargo manifest is if there is something dangerous declared. Anything secret or special isn't going to be list
: I'm well aware that no locations are provided. But each ping provides an arc - and portions of that arc can be eliminated by being inconsistent with
: 1) Other eariler arcs probably all overlap, 2) As the arcs get closer they probably just merge together in a big blob, 3) They might have also used t
: Does look quite probable. Have they checked financial status of all passengers/crew yet.
: That takes "crazy" to a whole new level, wow.
: That link showing error now ! Russia puzzled over Malaysia Airlines capture by US Navy[Edited 2014-03-16 04:42:00 by SA7700]
: cargo manifests Show all relevant data of the freight loaded on a particular flight. Including the declared nature of the goods. If that is autro par
: And even if it did, if you have privileged access to the cargo manifest then disclosing it publicly would be a gross betrayal of trust and a sackable
: I think they do, though in the press conference they were evasive when asked if the passengers are being investigated. One of the guys said all on bo
: The thought that a cargo manifest is going to include illegal and secret items on a list an intern could pull up isn't very probable. If it was caugh
: As I have seen and heard MH 370 mystery over the last nine days, and many released facts and data, and even speculations, My pesonal conclusion is bel
: Not to mention even if nothing secret or illegal is listed people don't exactly want the nature of their shipments to be public knowledge if there is
: I still have it open in another tab. I haven't posted here in years, will the current forum rules allow me to copy/paste the article?
: Copyrights and Advertising Copyrighted material from other websites, newspapers, magazines and journals are not allowed to be posted. You are permitt
: There are many dozens of posts about this in previous threads. The current state of knowledge about ACARS on MH370 is well summarised in the OP at th
: That Sir is an excellent post,I agree with all you say,a "rogue" pilot who for some reason or other has decided a while ago on his actions ,the varia
: Are we sure they are telling the truth ? Look here: http://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/russi...aysia-airlines-capture-by-us-navy/
: Actually the link is still working, I just pulled it up in a different browser so it wasn't using cache.