Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31  
User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2783 posts, RR: 4
Posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60415 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Due to length part 30 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 31:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

**********************************************************************************************


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL TOWARDS OTHER USERS AND KEEP THE FORUM RULES AND REGULATIONS IN MIND WHEN POSTING IN THE FORUMS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY RULE VIOLATIONS, PLEASE BRING THIS TO THE ATTENTION OF THE MODERATORS BY MAKING USE OF THE “SUGGEST DELETION FUNCTION”. ****

**** WHEN STATING FACTS, STATISTICS OR NEWSWORTHY BULLETINS, PLEASE BE SURE TO INCLUDE AN HTML LINK OR REFERENCE TO A PUBLICATION. IF YOU ARE MERELY PROVIDING AN OPINION, PLEASE MENTION THIS IN YOUR POST. ALL MEMBERS ARE RESPONSIBLE TO AVOID ARGUMENTS BASED ON RUMORS OR MISINFORMATION




Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,
Pat


You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
272 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17015 posts, RR: 67
Reply 1, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60498 times:

Quoting hivue (Reply 317):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 314):
Pretty neat graphic summary. Click to open larger version.

The graphic says, "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark." That data had to go via ACARS, right?

Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60447 times:

If this question was asked, I didn't see it. I have read almost all of the threads.

If there were a portable ELT on board, and the crew triggered it, would it have helped track the plane?

Assuming they could actually get to it, were free to try to use it, and could maybe hold it near a window...


User currently offlinehivue From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1070 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60337 times:

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM.

Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?


User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60247 times:

One issue that is causing a lot heat from China with this lost aircraft is that the family members in China don't have the bodies of their presumably dead family members so is disrupting their ability to mourn their death. In their culture, as well as with others like Orthodox Judaism it is a necessity to have a body to have a funeral and properly process their loss.
This article I saw Saturday on Yahoo discusses this side issue. This was a serious problem after 9/11 when many bodies were lost in the fires of the collapsed WTC towers.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-famili...MDNARjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkA1FJMDQ5XzE-


User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60211 times:

Quoting hivue (Reply 3):
Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?

ACARS via VHF might have been disabled, but the SATCOM channel left available?


User currently offlinesocalgeo From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 42 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60257 times:

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 257):
Did the aircraft have enough range to fly due south of SriLanka and then onto Somalia? Is that a theory being considered and looked at?

I really don't think so. Seems to me with a range of ~3000 stat miles after the last radar contact that route would leave them close to 500 miles short.

Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934




SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:11:38]

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:13:01]

User currently offlinephilask From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 31 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60105 times:

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 4):

One issue that is causing a lot heat from China with this lost aircraft is that the family members in China don't have the bodies of their presumably dead family members so is disrupting their ability to mourn their death. In their culture, as well as with others like Orthodox Judaism it is a necessity to have a body to have a funeral and properly process their loss.

I'd say that the latest revelations should give them more hope that the passengers are still alive, stating that they're dead at this point (without any evidence) is premature.


User currently offlineedmountain From Canada, joined Mar 2014, 85 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60000 times:

Quoting hivue (Reply 3):
Bringing into question previous statements that ACARS was disabled prior to the transponder shutting down?

Indeed. If true then there's a huge contradiction in the data to the public thus far.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25117 posts, RR: 22
Reply 9, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59670 times:

Quoting philask (Reply 7):
I'd say that the latest revelations should give them more hope that the passengers are still alive,

What revelations are you referring to?


User currently offlineimagoagnitio From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 25 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59671 times:

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 6):

I think you are correct, they would have been a bit short, assuming fuel load we are basing most theories on

or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil


User currently offlineTapir From Malaysia, joined Mar 2014, 136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59451 times:

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

What Tamils? The tigers were wiped out 5 years ago.


User currently offlineAirIndia From United Arab Emirates, joined Jan 2001, 1639 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59203 times:

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

The LTTE in the past have carried out aerial attacks (unsuccessfully).... so they are heavily scrutinised, virtually impossible to land any plane on tamil stronghold....

especially since

Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):
The tigers were wiped out 5 years ago.


User currently offlinercair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1317 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59571 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT


Sanity Check - 3/17/14 0300Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/17/14 0300Z update.
The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
Added primary/secondary Radar discussion
Updated SATCOM Pings section related to recent "it may have landed" comments.
Added comments on cyber-hijack theory.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
"We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
The summary at(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large) says: "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to 4 hours after its transponders went dark. NOTE: I think this summary - while good - is dated.
This seems consistent with the SATCOM data being sent by the plane - which would stop if the plane (engines) were shut down.
Opinion: in absence of actual engine data being sent - which has not been reported - this may be just a different way to say what has been said.

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satallite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Aircraft Fuel State
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca straight
North west of Malacca straight
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

Conspiracy Theories
There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Some of the more prevalent.
The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor.

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-16 20:48:25]


rcair1
User currently offlineimagoagnitio From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 25 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59110 times:

Quoting Tapir (Reply 11):

and yet, two days ago the police in Sri Lanka arrested a prominent Tamil activist source http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26577956


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6484 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59087 times:

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

Aside from the fact that the LTTE were shut down in 2009, what runway would they control that could be used to refuel a wide body? It's not a large country.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineTheRedBAron From Mexico, joined Mar 2005, 2204 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59005 times:

To those willing to crucify the captain let me put some holes in your theory:

Let say for a minute this guy as as cold as ice and prepared to kill 200+ souls in order to prove a point (whatever that may be), he knew that going over malaysian airspace would bring on the jet interceptors, more so if something was amiss with comms or transponders.

In my view is easier to entertain that someone entered the cabin and took the plane and ordered the pilots to make some changes and they crossed the peninsula on PURPOSE, but alas! the guys in command were sleepy (to say the least).
something happened maybe they wanted to incapacitate the culprit by depresurissing the 777 and something went wrong and we got to a helios scenario.

We might never know what happened because that triple 7 is resting in the bottom of the sea thousands of miles from land...

TRB



The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
User currently offlineflyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58584 times:

Quoting TheRedBAron (Reply 16):
To those willing to crucify the captain let me put some holes in your theory:

Thank you. With a lack of hard evidence I find it disheartening people are so quick to assume the pilot acted in malice. Truth is we simply do not know.



"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlineTapir From Malaysia, joined Mar 2014, 136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58574 times:

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 14):

I didnt say Tamils got wiped out. What are you trying to say here. MH370 landed in areas controlled by the Tigers? The answer is NO. The war has ended and no secret rebel held area existed in SL for MH370 to land. Regarding the arrest (which is not relevant to aviation matter) please watch Channel 4 - The killing field so that you get a clearer picture why MH370 couldn't have landed there unless of course on the invitation of SL.

[Edited 2014-03-16 20:30:40]

User currently offlinehivue From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1070 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58582 times:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 13):
ACARS data from MH370

Can you update to reflect the quote from the graphic at https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bi2S3l7CcAAPLb3.jpg:large at the end of the previous part which indicated that "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark."


User currently offline7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1537 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58466 times:

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
The graphic says, "US officials said data showed MH370's engines operated for up to four hours after its transponder went dark." That data had to go via ACARS, right?

Yes. Positing that this item is true, the data would have been generated by ACARS and sent with SATCOM

They're not saying the engines were running because they got engine data via ACARS, they're saying if the engines weren't running there wouldn't be any electrical power to ping the satellite.


User currently offlinesocalgeo From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 42 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58292 times:

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 10):
they would have been a bit short, assuming fuel load we are basing most theories on

or they were not refueled in Sri Lanka by the Tamil

I'd be surprised they could get help from the Tamil (if the Tamil even wanted to, which we have not heard) without the Sri Lanka Govt tracking them on radar (the big yellow circle over the whole Island). When I pulled the radar locations from the ICAO web site I paid particular attention to that radar site because I was considering the possibility of an over flight of the island. But the radar for Sri Lanka is on the top of Mt. Pidurutalagala, which from what I can tell is the highest point on the island, which I think might limit the ability to fly thru a shadow from terrain (I'm no radar expert, but as I collected and mapped radar site locations last night I felt that there were a lot that are positioned so that there would not be a full 360 degree view, due to terrain). And there seems to be some overlap of Indian radar over parts of the northern area of the island. You can see the radar site if you change the base map on the live map from National Geographic to Imagery with Labels, and zoom in to the center of that yellow circle... you can turn the yellow circles off with the layer button..

SoCalGeo


User currently offline7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1537 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58162 times:

[quote=LTC8K6,reply=2]


If this question was asked, I didn't see it. I have read almost all of the threads.

If there were a portable ELT on board, and the crew triggered it, would it have helped track the plane?

Assuming they could actually get to it, were free to try to use it, and could maybe hold it near a window...

Quote:

One in the survival lit in each slide/raft I believe.


User currently offlinehivue From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1070 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 58062 times:

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):
They're not saying the engines were running because they got engine data via ACARS, they're saying if the engines weren't running there wouldn't be any electrical power to ping the satellite.

OK, that makes sense. But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?


User currently offlinesocalgeo From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 42 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 57767 times:

Quoting hivue (Reply 23):
OK, that makes sense. But why four hours instead of the seven hours till the last ping at 8:11L?

I think that it is 7-7.5 hours for the whole flight. The last radar contact by the Pinang radar was at 2:15 AM, 200 miles NW of Penang. The plan flew on until 8:11 AM Malaysia Time. That's pretty cl;ose to 6 hours after loss of radar contact.

SoCalGeo


25 jelliesR : The SMH reports now that he did some "terrain following" (low altitude flying over land) so maybe he was fully aware of the risks and was trying to a
26 solarflyer22 : I really doubt it. Besides, there are probably only 2 runways in Somalia capable of landing it and I am sure by now US Satellites have snapped pictur
27 edmountain : I've looked into it a bit more and I believe the graphic is confabulating ACARS data with SATCOM pings. Edit: Specifically, I believe the graphic is
28 hivue : I should probably rephrase to why four hours instead of the six hours till the last ping at 8:11L?
29 YWG : I'm not sure if it's been mentioned or not, but finding the plane will only be half the mystery. If someone is smart enough to disable the ACARS and t
30 hivue : It seems to me that something has gotten "confabulated."
31 PHX Flyer : I have two questions: 1. What's the time interval between the pings? 2. Were the pings recorded in regular intervals up until 8:11, or was there a ga
32 hivue : And thereby immortalize all sounds from the flight deck up to that point (given that the CVR is ever recovered)? As others have pointed out a number
33 rcair1 : Done I don't know about a portable ELT - but the planes ELT can be triggered by the pilots. Do you mean an ELT, like in a life raft triggered by the
34 LTC8K6 : I know none were heard. I was just wondering if this was a viable way for the crew to possibly communicate distress. Theoretically, could it work?
35 edmountain : I think the confabulation was further confounded by confusing the phrases "data was sent for hours" versus "data was sent for four hours" versus "dat
36 Post contains images tim73 : Exactly. How many 777 pilots have actually tried the Coffin corner?!
37 terlanmat68 : I apologize if this has already been discussed. I understand that those two arcs are based on the final network ping, plotted using distance from the
38 Post contains images hivue : Confusing and confounding confabulation has characterized this whole conundrum.
39 Post contains links CaliAtenza : Well the Israelis seem to think it's intact, and that Iran is somehow involved: http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-el-a...rt-iran-likely-involved-in-mh-3
40 Post contains links JOshu : The "Malaysian Insider" is reported that the plane flew as low as "1,500 feet" to avoid radar. http://my.news.yahoo.com/mh370-flew-...void-detection-s
41 hivue : Agreed. I was just wondering if more data was being transmitted via satellite than just hourly stand by pings.
42 edmountain : That's actually a fascinating idea and would reconcile several inconsistencies in other theories. Hard to prove though without finding the plane.
43 LTC8K6 : I said earlier that the claim is confusing. I doubt very much that they flew as low as 5,000 feet. They'd be burning a lot of fuel flying that low an
44 JOshu : Thanks, hard to follow all of this.
45 tim73 : Well, if you planned to do the heist of the century by hijacking and flying low and fast between mountains, the super enthuastic and very experienced
46 7BOEING7 : Yes.
47 7BOEING7 : During certification, a few.
48 Post contains links flyorski : Sorry if this has been posted before, however from the independent it appears the crew did not ask for more fuel. "Officials urged reporters not to ju
49 allrite : It would be convenient for the Malaysian government to blame the increasingly popular opposition, especially if it was the case (and I'm not saying i
50 imagoagnitio : OOI, is anyone tracking MH6124, 9M-MUA A330F on FR24 at the moment, shows KUL-DWC, yet it's currently over the Black Sea tracking 290, presuming this
51 SCQ83 : Absolutely fascinating. The confirmation bias behind some comments that consider impossible of just plain "insane" (as I have read repeatedly), to th
52 LTC8K6 : If you fly high and depressurize, the masks drop, and the pax and crew go nuts. Seems like you wouldn't want that. Plus the F/A's would get on their b
53 LTC8K6 : Looks fine on Flight Aware.
54 Post contains links imagoagnitio : how strange, saw it on smartphone, now this online http://www.flightradar24.com/MAS6124/2e83e3d
55 LTC8K6 : Pretty weird.
56 bcworld : Flight aware is confused. The flight is operating SHJ-AMS. https://www.google.com/#q=MH6124
57 Capt747Ret : If 370 had an ELT the force of a land impact would have triggered it. Satellites would have picked it up in a matter of minutes or less and it positio
58 PHX Flyer : Well, I think he Israelis are right about the pilots' profiles ... while I agree that Captain Shah's FS needed to be examined, I also expect that no
59 LTC8K6 : I didn't post that. Neither FA or FR24 is correct, it seems.
60 ikramerica : Iran Air is simply trying to modernize their fleet by working around the embargo.
61 StaticShock : Out of anything in the consistently brilliant and much needed summary posts from rcair1- I hope they read and understand this point. Still unsure why
62 YVRLTN : It is. The only difficulty I have is the turning off of the transponder etc leading up to this point. I suppose the hijacker could be pointing a gun
63 airplanebrain : Could the pilot load an alternate flight number into the transponder system while he was over water and away from radar to simulate another airplane?
64 chrcaremanav : Howdy! Iran wanting an aircraft like the 777, They do not need to steal one, They are not a poor country, so if They want some 777, They call Boeing a
65 PlanesNTrains : I wish we could get away from the condescending drivel on these threads. If you think the pilot is involved, you're a moron. If you ignore what the a
66 LandSweetLand : I've been thinking about this for a couple of days, but is a dedicated runway actually necessary (as opposed to just a hard flat 1-2km stretch of lan
67 seahawk : There are probably quite a few old Soviet airbases near the end of the northern route, which offer a runway suitable for a 777 and are mostly abandone
68 TheRedBAron : Dont buy it for a second! are you kidding? terrain following in the middle of the night on a heavy plane , the triple 7 is a great aircraft but its n
69 Post contains links NAV30 : A distinguished aviation writer, Geoffrey Thomas, just 'unloaded' on the Malaysian authorities, whom he accuses of wasting a week investigating the wr
70 RussianJet : I don't like the way that the woman on the news (UK, ITV Channel) just now said that the captain was "a self-confessed aviation geek" in such a clearl
71 seahawk : Why not. The plane still has GPS and the pilot could have easily prepared a safe path long before the flight. You could fly the route in a sim as muc
72 spacecadet : Not sure what you're including in your "etc" (it's kind of like Seinfeld's "yadda yadda yadda") but there are a whole bunch of things about that theo
73 WingedMigrator : Going back to rcairs' Sanity Check: At the risk of disrupting the group think... on what basis was fire dismissed again? Turn back towards Malaysia...
74 PlanesNTrains : Aviation geek? That ain't so bad. Try telling someone you're a model railroader. You'll be lucky to ever date again. -Dave
75 Finn350 : Let's assume that the disappearance of the MH 370 was caused by a suicidal pilot who wanted to cover all his tracks and the plane never to be found. T
76 imagoagnitio : Now it has changed Squawk code to 1000 is that normal passing through German airspace
77 Post contains links hawk21m : http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68 How close would both aircraft need to be ...to be viewed as one object on th
78 seahawk : I guess in those hours they flew on somebody would have had the idea to use the GPS of one of the mobile phones to get a rudimentary position fix.
79 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Sounds normal. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpo...r_%28aviation%29#Transponder_codes
80 rebr : This is just a regular scheduled Cargo flight. Also both Germany and The Netherlands maintain 24/7 Quick Reaction Alert aircraft. They've been scramb
81 Speedbird128 : Yes, and not only in Germany. #1000 is our Mode-A code we use for Mode-S correlation. Due to the vast number of aircraft, we were running out of squa
82 k83713 : What I heard previously couple of threads ago, apparently you need confirmation from inside cockpit after the code is correct. So it had to be F/A re
83 davidzill : Gents, she is either hidden inside a hanger, or at the bottom of a sea that can reach depths of of to 20,000 feet, which if it is that deep, we've sur
84 Unflug : To be honest, I'd rather buy your theory than many of the others floating around. While the facts known so far do point to deliberate action by someo
85 macsog6 : Certainly would not be the first time. I think this will be an on-going mystery for a very long time.
86 k83713 : So why at the point of ATC transfer? "All right, good night" and then the fire starts? Strange things happen in life, of course, but I would not be c
87 jpetekyxmd80 : That all sounds pretty good to me. Would explain a lot of the previously unexplainable movements.
88 Post contains images Starlionblue : They can certainly load another Mode A code, but they can't make the plane look different. Also, who are you fooling? Two different returns with the
89 Starlionblue : The problem with this theory is that both transponders have to be on for TCAS to work. However Mr. Ledgerwood seems to think that if MH370 turns off
90 haynflyer : In an earlier post of this theory, the author (I believe) pointed out that SQ68 was at 30,000 ft and MH370 was at 29,500. Not sure why that was taken
91 EC135 : I my opinion the disappearance of MH370 is not just some kind suicide by one of the pilots... it is a very very well planned action by a group of peop
92 YokoTsuno : Nothing. The reason I believe is the impression the media creates that pilots and tech people in general are the smooth, well-dressed, well spoken pr
93 Post contains images mika : I like sitting at the pub AND i'm an aviation geek (enthusiast!) Combining the two is even better..
94 Post contains images Starlionblue : Hey, I'm not judging!
95 Post contains links Kiqaboy : In case the MH 370 flew under the shadow of SIA 68, and could not use his TCAS on board! He might have used one of these http://images.ecwid.com/image
96 jpetekyxmd80 : Interesting. That does poke holes in the theory. Could they have turned it on a few quick isolated times to gauge the position of SQ68? Could these a
97 hawk21m : Exactly...hence how near one needs to shadow a widebody not to be noticed by primary radar. why go west then east. what was the route of SQ......mayb
98 Starlionblue : Nah, I think that makes things too complex. Kigaboy's option is better. Fair point.
99 flyingturtle : ...didn't/don't they wet-lease Airbus 320, or am I completely wrong? In the past (say 2004) they have wet-leased 742, ex-Lufthansa aircraft. David
100 asetiadi : This plane will never be found unless each and every country in this world send ships to sea and find the plane. in 21st century, with all the technol
101 hawk21m : What regime on the route would Hide that the Aircraft is on their land and why.
102 Speedbird128 : no, because this will trigger immediate TA or RA alerts for the SQ... And then ATC would also see them. They could also easily have followed visually
103 pvjin : The only one possibly crazy enough to do such a thing is North Korea, but as the plane was full of Chinese that's definitely not the case. So, in rea
104 Dalavia : Letting my mind go along with this theory for a while, I don't think the culprit (presuming this is an organised operation) has to be a regime. It co
105 liquidair : you keep saying this, despite the fact that all evidence points to the contrary... Why do you feel this way? I'm not saying the plane is intact (alth
106 Tapir : It looks like so easy to fly 777 without being detected. I think this must have shocked US.
107 Mouldypete : This is intriguing but wasn't there change(s) in the flight path after the rapid climb to cause hypoxia and disabling of the hijacker(s). Who made th
108 Enobar : Is it possible to manually deploy the oxygen masks into the cabin? What if the people on the flight deck deployed the masks and made an announcement t
109 canadiantree : I don't know if this has been posted before but in regards to keeping the passengers calm: Is it possible that the pilots could execute the turn websi
110 Starlionblue : AF447 is not comparable at this point. The aircraft flew on the planned route and thus the wreckage was found within a couple of days. MH370 is a onc
111 Luxair : Not only the US is "shocked" believe me. I could name a few other nations who have actually sleepless nights!!!
112 pvjin : What evidence? We don't know where it is, we don't know who did it, we don't know why it was done. We know almost nothing. You somehow assume a pilot
113 iberiadc852 : Has anyone with knowledge checked if those type of questions have been asked in the Technical/Operations fórum before this event?
114 flood : Respectfully, I don't think you understand the definition of being narrow-minded. It would be narrow-minded for one to dismiss the theory of pilot su
115 Kiqaboy : Starlionblue lets say they had a laptop with a GPS receiver, a ADS-B receiver and the proper application to see all the info they would get from the a
116 fiscal : Problem is that that does not fit the usual murder suicide profiles. Most of those want to go out in a blaze of glory, before killing themselves to g
117 chaseus1 : Since the article of a shoe bomb was posted... could the plane have been turned back for Malaysia for a 9/11 style attack... then a struggle ensued (w
118 liquidair : I'm more of the opinion that the plane was worth more. it's long range would make it a perfect weapon... And if it has been hijacked and landed in on
119 LandSweetLand : Should ryanair be careful?
120 aw70 : Just to try and put one particular theory to rest: Chaps, there is *zero* reason for Iran, of all countries, to be involved in this. Zero. Others migh
121 k83713 : I think the theory of dedicated USB modem to track FR by shadowing aircraft is easily checked with satellite logs which would provide the band.
122 jelliesR : that is what he did. he didn't want to only kill himself. He wanted to cause problems for Malaysian leadership, and he succeeded.
123 Speedbird128 : I'd hazard a guess and say that the g-forces while ditching on the hudson didn't fit in with an ELT trigger... I've seen some utterly Sh*t hard landi
124 slinky09 : Today's press conference now starting ...
125 Post contains links flyingturtle : That's not needed. A 360 degrees, standard rate turn takes 2 minutes to accomplish, faster aircraft like our airliners use half rate turns (i.e. 4 mi
126 liquidair : granted, there is no single piece of evidence that confirms what has been said... But if you collate all the little bits and put them together, a pic
127 Luxair : I've mentioned the exact same theorie before and I couldn't agree more! Maybe crashing the plane in The Hague due to the world top security meeting o
128 dragon-wings : Some of these scenarios could be made into a hit movie! I mean could you imagine if the plane was flown undetected to a remote airfield and hidden eve
129 StaticShock : It is absolutely not looking increasingly likely. People are praying that it has happened so they can get their terror threat fix. A 777 shadowed ano
130 Post contains images Luxair : Don't get excited it's only speculative so no need to get checked by anybody
131 Dalavia : Yes, this is a good example of the conflicting information we have been receiving. I noticed his sheepishly hesitant manner in answering the question
132 Speedbird128 : Link please?
133 Post contains links Dalavia : Press conference at http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live
134 liquidair : absolutely agree. but then, if you said four planes were going to stolen and flown into various high profile buildings on American soil in 2001, i to
135 slinky09 : And before 911 there was no evidence that terrorists would act the way they did. Which is not to say I disagree with the likelihood of pilot suicide
136 pvjin : Why is it unlikely, but someone flying the aircraft into a secret location to later use it as a weapon of mass destruction isn't? Why even bother to
137 garpd : OK, lets not outright dismiss the possibility. There is after all several known precedents. However, in each case there is a catalogue of clues that
138 Starlionblue : I can't be sure but I don't think so. You might have to hold it close to the window. As mentioned above this would leave a trail in satellite connect
139 StaticShock : Woah there. You need to work out what it is you are saying. You are saying that the dreamworld scenarios you are writing here are "increasingly likel
140 liquidair : in my opinion, there's too much planning involved here for a suicide- why not just point the nose down and stick in the south china sea? Introduce va
141 Speedbird128 : Thanks!
142 Post contains images YokoTsuno : Don't get worked up, many here agree with you. It's just that A.net isn't the right place for party poopers .
143 Post contains links aljrooney : An interesting link using cell phone analogies on the Inmarsat satellite system that may help clarify things for non-tech people. http://tmfassociates
144 flyingturtle : A longhaul plane is not needed. There is nothing more dangerous than a fully fueled plane sitting in JFK, EWR, DCA or IAD, with a three minutes fligh
145 k83713 : The weak point of shadow theory for me is the moment of separation. I don't think hijackers were that lucky to slip through several countries surveill
146 Speedbird128 : Any capable person with the requisite hardware can insert *any* 24bit/hex code. One doesn't need to ask ICAO to make a change. They need to ask ICAO
147 flood : From the press conference, apparently the last "goodnight" communication was made by the FO. Not sure I understand. Nothing of what has been said thus
148 nupogodi : They were wrong about ACARS being turned off before the transponder! They just know that it made a transmission at 0107L and did not make one at 0137L
149 na : Incredibly they have not yet found out who said "good night". The journalist who asked was given the answer "ongoing investigation". Why is no one ask
150 liquidair : erm..at which point did i mention Iran? when did i mention 'bad guys'? and at which point, despite me repeatedly stating that the outcome of the pass
151 slinky09 : One thing from the news conference, it seems the co-pilot was the one verablly signing off before the plane disappeared.
152 Post contains links thunderboltdrgn : According to the Guardian FBI and Interpol have been involved since day 1: "The FBI and Interpol have been involved in the investigation from day one,
153 tomlee : Well the press conference said, last cockpit communications 1:19 (co-pilot) 1:07 last acars transmission (supposed to transmit 30 minutes later) and t
154 tomlee : I literally can't believe how everything was saying it was deliberate and they knew for certain. They technically knew nothing and were assuming some
155 pvjin : Why wait this long? Every single day they wait will increase the risks of getting caught, if someone planned to use the plane in a terrorist attack i
156 slinky09 : Indeed, today's press conference is a mess of contradiction and obfuscation. This has thrown the sequence of events after 1 am into confusion. As to
157 CX Flyboy : If you were going to kill yourself, wouldn't it be cool to do it in a memorable way thats going to create a mystery and one that ensures your place i
158 Tapir : Yes. Now they are telling FO signed off..Everyday, same facts with different version.
159 sejtam : So here is a question the wifey asked: Who (country, organization, etc) would profit from the fact that this draws the world's attention (and thus awa
160 liquidair : i can see what you're saying, but i just can't imagine one of the two on flight deck flipping out to those levels- or being audacious enough to attem
161 pvjin : Indeed. If the hijacker was one of the pilots he could have also had some final fun by trying all kinds of weird maneuvers with the 777 before crashi
162 nupogodi : The rules of the forum allow for such things in proper context. Implying that word choice says anything about class is an antiquated concept that bel
163 na : Identification still to be confirmed. They said initially they thought it was the co-pilot, but its not sure yet (again, what is the reaction of the
164 k83713 : Hey, come on, those guys are under intense stress having to officially report in front of whole world their findings in this bizarre case. They have a
165 Dalavia : ... which is why I am turning to Reuters and the WSJ - and yes, even Flying with Fish - for information that is more reliable than these press confer
166 dragon-wings : Do you remember the pro golfer Payne Stewart? His Learjet lost cabin pressure, everyone onboard were incapacitated due to lack of oxygen and the jet
167 garpd : Again and again and again: No. That does not explain the transponder being off. The 777 is pretty sophisticated and would not remain silent in such a
168 Post contains links theaviator380 : http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/03/vanishing-plane/ Interesting read. Thoughts please?
169 tomlee : Yeah when they say they must wait and I wait and say something for days at a time and make some pretty bold claims like (ACARS was deliberately disab
170 tomlee : He basically says the northern route would either require a government or some other party to pull off or absolute total incompetence by everyone who
171 Post contains links theaviator380 : Another interesting read, http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68 Someone was mentioned flying undetected by shadowi
172 Tapir : With too many unknowns and back tracking, I wouldn't be surprised if the plane is somehow still in Malaysia territory. That is the only logical explan
173 nupogodi : The Learjet did not have the transponder fail, and a pressurization failure would not explain a climb in response in the hands of seasoned pilots. Al
174 garpd : I think we are dealing with two events here. I believe that initially, the plane was forced to fly of course. The hijacker may well have had a specif
175 flood : Wherein lies the risk? You're behind a secure door and have to incapacitate another person - not only with the element of surprise and from behind, b
176 theaviator380 : Yes I was telling same to my colleague this morning, unless there is a help from some govt. over which this MH 370 could have flown, it sounds strang
177 k83713 : Which still doesn't rule out the fact that ACARS could be deliberately disabled, right? Maybe not before the last communication, but after, it's stil
178 theaviator380 : What are the updates from officials about SAR deep in Indian ocean? I couldn't see press this morning. If it has crashed in Indian ocean, is there an
179 StaticShock : Exactly!! That's why I was going so mad- the Guardian (and possibly others) were running stories based on this "fact" about the plane was 100% hijack
180 garpd : Really? Seriously? You think that two fantastically improbable events happens on the same flight at precisely the same time? I think the chances of g
181 k83713 : Because it was not within their reach?
182 AirKorea : In my opinion, MH 370 turn right over the north east of Penang and flew for 5~6 hours, between Diego Garcia and CoCo Archipelogo and to the Southern I
183 tomlee : No it doesn't rule out deliberate it actually makes more sense as ACARS 10 minutes before transponder is illogical for a deliberate action. But since
184 Starlionblue : This has already been mentioned and discussed in this very thread. A simple ctrl+F search would have told you that.
185 tomlee : No it has minutes to happen. Not instantly by any metric I know of. It could be deliberate or technical if things happened rapidly either case would
186 liquidair : i don't think it's ever really happened like this before... the risk of failure is of course, present - think suicide attempt compared to success- ch
187 nupogodi : This could be explained by a sequence of events similar to Ethiopian Air 961, however any hijackers that know enough to ask the pilots to disable the
188 na : Why? If that sudden structural event did just that, happened just there that it was "switched" off? The zigzagging course at first with semi-consciou
189 k83713 : So what we gonna do if FDR and CVR were disabled? Which looking at the now known traces will be a likely possibility?
190 Post contains links and images flood : Chua Chin Hon of the Straits Times: "New map issued by Malaysia on the south corridor being searched for #MH370 " via http://twitter.com/chinhon/statu
191 rebr : Most crashes are a chain of very improbable events... I wouldn't be suprised if we ever find it that something completely different happened, that no
192 tomlee : Wow, that plotted on the google earth map really makes it look like an absolutely huge area to search. (Also considering it isn't totally accurate ei
193 Tapir : Well...took them 4 days to confirm that the mysterious blip near Pulau Perak was MH370. How do you explain the radar invasion of multiple country? An
194 k83713 : If they don't have tools to narrow that or if they don't have incredible luck, the mission is nearly impossible...or they need crowd sourcing (which
195 BackSeater : What is the error estimate on the Inmarsat loci for the last ping i.e. 40deg +/- x deg? Where are the loci for the earlier pings? If such info can be
196 flood : Yeah, it's disheartening to see the arcs extend considerably further than in the previous image.
197 k83713 : Once they flew out of Malaysia, there were no other countries, just Indian ocean. I think slipping through other countries radar coverage would requi
198 tomlee : I don't even think there is enough commercial imaging capacity to image that track in a reasonable timeframe and resolution. It is going to require s
199 nupogodi : Likely higher than you would expect, which is why they won't publish that information with the maps. If it's as high as 5-10º, that means the search
200 tomlee : Not to mention unlike a single double failure event maintaining their cover long enough makes them have to roll a very unfavourable dice for hours on
201 Yirina77 : I don´t know if it was already mentioned here before, but I still have on my mind case of stolen B727 in Angola about 10 years ago. It was different
202 tomlee : The search area is so huge there probably is no similar case. They should try using other sats or radio listening stations to try and find something.
203 Finn350 : The satellite positioning estimate gives a circle on the surface of the earth. I believe that cutting the circle into two arcs is based on the how fa
204 liquidair : this is interesting. the pilot was a known to sympathise with the opposition. The copilot was the son of a bigwig politician, according to Mandala. t
205 MarcoT : A curious thing to say, since they've expanded the search to the Andaman Sea and said so since DAY 2[Edited 2014-03-17 04:16:48]
206 slinky09 : Absolutely, it could pinpoint or exclude the northern track. I hesitated posting before but there was one flight I took from DXB-LHR when on landing
207 Post contains images deconz : An ABS-B receiver can be operated in receive only mode. In any case, it uses an internet connection to transmit data it has collected, not satellites
208 k83713 : They really need to start picturing that Arc and open it for slow search by slow crowd-sourcing. It will be faster than to fly over those areas and wi
209 BackSeater : Unfortunately that is also my gut feeling. But no matter how bad it is, they should publish the data and the basis for the estimation. An Inmarsat te
210 Owleye : In case the plane still exists I fear this scenario as well: a dirty (nuke) bomb hidden in a 777 plunging on The Hague. Though it will be a no-flying
211 MarcoT : How on earth killing Maylasians and Chines on board on a MH could be a constructed as a 'revenge' for the death of Osama?
212 LTC8K6 : If it's a structural or technical failure, it's gotta' be the weirdest one ever. I suppose it could have been a small bomb that knocked out some thing
213 k83713 : Right, those arcs are not flightpaths...it just where Inmarsat caught the ping. Did they say today something about fuel left after that ping was for 3
214 Post contains links Gonzalo : I apologize if this has been posted before, I were flying a lot the last days and couldn't read everything posted here. There is a "Breaking" ( yeah I
215 tomlee : The biggest problem I see is locating the plane is going to be "extremely hard" to say the least. Regardless of how it went down deliberate or not if
216 tomlee : It was from the press conference it is their "initial" idea on who was talking last.
217 garpd : The likelihood of this is so small, it's not worth you or I worrying about it. If you want to fly a plane into a target, you hijack it and do so at t
218 StaticShock : Genuine question to you both, is this really something you worry about? If so, why not worry about it before a plane that everyone is looking for goe
219 LTC8K6 : They are saying it was the F/O who said good night to ATC as the last voice comm. I'm not sure why it matters. It doesn't tell us anything.
220 n521na : Correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't the operators of MH370 have turned off their TCAS system, thus TA/RA alerts wouldn't have triggered on either a
221 LTC8K6 : Yeah, without a breakthrough, I think the plane will be found by someone who is not looking for it, a long time from now...
222 garpd : Probably a jogger or dog walker. They always find stuff. Kinda suspicious if you ask me!
223 liquidair : inadvertent lol... Read jogger and dog, my brain saw the two combined... Definitely suspicious!
224 Gonzalo : Aha OK thank you, I was thinking they were implying something different with the phrase "final words", for some of us I guess "final words" can be in
225 Post contains images JimJupiter : Bill Bailey will kindly ask for a royalty payment. [Edited 2014-03-17 04:44:50]
226 Post contains links jcxroberts : The Southern corridor requires going through Australian radar (2000 km) which is much better than Indian. There's no reason to suppose the Southerrn c
227 Owleye : So you say that possible scenario is ruled out?
228 nupogodi : The transponder was turned off, which is what TCAS relies on to work, yes. What you were quoting is a response to a weird theory about how to track t
229 Post contains images garpd : YAY! Someone got the reference You have taste, Sir!
230 jcxroberts : For instance, the Australian Defence Satellite Communications Station is near Perth, which is jointly operated by the US and Australia.
231 nupogodi : Being a large OTH installation, does JORN have the capability to determine altitude? Can it even determine speed at such distances? OTH has terrible
232 StaticShock : No, but in the same way you can't rule me out of scoring the winning goal in the World Cup final in the summer
233 garpd : Although we cannot really rule anything out. I think we can put that possible scenario in the "Highly unlikely" category.
234 YoungMans : And my heartfelt feelings go out to you, hoping that this will come to a conclusion as soon and as quickly as possible. At the same time, though, it
235 timothy31388 : That's alot of Mangosteens. I thought China plants their own as well? LoL.
236 jcxroberts : Of course I don't know, I'm just saying that Australia air defenses utilize the same technology as the U.S. and usually work in conjunction with the
237 Post contains links tomlee : http://www.smh.com.au/national/border-radar-fiasco-20110702-1gwio.html They have advertised it as being able to detect even small boats but that doesn
238 StaticShock : ...So instead of bribing the folks at the airport (or god forbid) taking it by force on the ground, the staged a hugely complicated and elaborate sch
239 na : Everything but a structural failure and kidnapping of some sort is in the "highly unlikely" category. Probably the real cause is in that category. Th
240 NAV30 : Could be important, LTC8K6. Most of us (including me) are thinking in terms of armed hijackers seizing control of the aeroplane. That 'goodnight' eve
241 JCS : In my opinion as unlikely as 911 was before 911. A horrible plot but the perfect middle finger to have a nuclear terrorist strike at a conference wit
242 RickNRoll : It seems to prove that the FO was in charge already, and executing his plan.
243 tomlee : Unless they wanted some fruits so bad (that is shipped a lot normally) they could have easily swapped it out on the ground. Especially at a normal ai
244 monjonman : The Australian Authorities are stating that the radar would have had to have been pointed directly at the aircraft to notice it ,as it was at the tim
245 tomlee : It proves nothing really. It could be him, could be done a few minutes later by the captain or other party, it could be tech related, ...
246 tomlee : The wild ocean part is a big problem in finding debris and even if they do finding the original crash site.
247 Post contains images David L : That's been my understanding all along. The public leaks suggested that RR had been receiving "engine data" for hours and that the investigators were
248 Post contains images David L : All it would prove is that the person making the transmission was conscious and able to operate the radio at the time.
249 Dalavia : Exactly. He might have signed off and then stepped outside to the washroom. I guess the one thing it proves is that no-one other than the crew was si
250 tomlee : No ACARS is totally unrelated to the Satcom inmarsat pings. It literally is like a cellphone network registration message that happens in the backgro
251 monjonman : It will be an unfortunate ,but good exercise for our subs to see just how good they are and any government in power loves to prove to the public that
252 k83713 : If there was valuable cargo in the story, why would someone send it by normal commercial flight? And by the cargo of value I mean the one that would c
253 tomlee : Assuming they can narrow it down enough or just search everywhere before the pinger stops working (Not to mention they have already used up a good po
254 k83713 : If the breakers are pulled from FDR, will it signal after immersion ? but it will store no data? Is it right?
255 enilria : I have a question. It's public that this is a terrorist incident. You have the NSA recording everything going on on the internet purportedly just to s
256 David L : I'm not sure I suggested otherwise.
257 nupogodi : Indeed. It is a separate battery-backed system, the pingers (ULBs) are activated by contact with water and are in no way controlled from the cockpit.
258 k83713 : The signal goes for 3 km around only, so it will be not about how government spends money, but how lucky they are to arrive at the right spot...
259 tomlee : Sorry misread but WSJ doesn't really have an advantage when they aren't very accurate.
260 tomlee : Problem with slurping up all of the internet is slurping up all the internet is going to capture so much data so quickly you have no chance of proces
261 LTC8K6 : Could have been said at gunpoint for all we know.
262 YoungMans : Was there any gold on this plane..?? Somewhere I have seen the figure of seven tons mentioned. Just recently, all the Ukranian gold was shipped to th
263 k83713 : Thank you for clarification. I hope we at least find them. I'm pretty sure though they will be blank...
264 tomlee : They didn't answer the question in the press conference about "stress" in the words spoken and LiveATC doesn't record that area so were in the dark a
265 Ecflyer : I think somebody wanted possession of a big jetliner. And I am just not terribly convinced that the radar in the northern arc is all that formidable w
266 tomlee : Problem with not declaring a pallet of gold is that gold is heavy (very heavy, 20x heavier than a same sized block of water, and many times heavier t
267 Tapir : Now it looks like they got no basis for saying for deliberate manoeuvre since no one could say for sure when both ACARS and transponder were stop func
268 tomlee : Basically the entire ACARS before last radio and transponder off is actually, last successful ACARS was before last radio contact and transponder off
269 monjonman : I have not come across any information clarifying the arcs given. Did they create the arcs from all the pings and joined the dots so to speak or are t
270 slinky09 : Which in fairness to reporters is often how breaking news breaks - they obviously had a tip about data transmissions, they used the best of their abi
271 Dalavia : Would lithium batteries be a similar density to gold?
272 Post contains links ManuCH : This thread will now be locked due to its size. Please continue in part 32: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civ
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 posted Sun Mar 16 2014 01:53:26 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 posted Sat Mar 15 2014 19:08:26 by jetblueguy22
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 posted Sat Mar 15 2014 10:25:29 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 posted Sat Mar 15 2014 03:44:41 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 posted Fri Mar 14 2014 22:26:51 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 posted Fri Mar 14 2014 05:59:05 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 posted Thu Mar 13 2014 22:22:52 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 posted Thu Mar 13 2014 15:02:25 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 posted Thu Mar 13 2014 10:04:31 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 posted Thu Mar 13 2014 03:18:34 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 posted Tue Mar 18 2014 20:16:15 by jetblueguy22
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 posted Tue Mar 18 2014 12:04:32 by SA7700