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A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6  
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Posted (9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 41300 times:
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As part 5 became quite long, part 6 has been created and is now open for discussion.

Part 1 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 1) (by StickShaker Dec 30 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Part 2 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 2) (by SA7700 Jan 4 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 3 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 3 (by SA7700 Jan 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 4 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4 (by SA7700 Jan 31 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 5 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 5 (by SA7700 Feb 23 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Please ensure to post according to the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. Enjoy the forums!

Thanks and regards,

SA7700


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
327 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (9 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 41210 times:

Quoting Revelation post 248:
The whole reason the 777-9X has massive orders before EIS is due to the shortcomings of the A350-1000...

Enough?


We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).

The 330Neo position seems to be firstly whether to do it or not and secondly the degree of updated engine technology required to make the aircraft sufficiently competitive. The (highly knowledgeable) consensus of A.net suggests a modified existing engine for a 2018 EIS and a 2020 EIS for a new engine.
2 years can be a long time in terms of market opportunities (CIT article) for an airframe approaching the end of its sales life. The benefits of waiting until 2020 would be significant in terms of remaining competitive for much longer into the late 2020's.
It is essentially a balancing act between engine technology, time to market, longevity into the 2020's, remaining competitive on short sectors and no doubt many others that I can't think of at the moment.

There are now quite a few airlines pushing Airbus to proceed with the A330Neo - are there any airlines who are firmly resisting the push for the A330Neo (ie the "don't change a thing" brigade) ?
No doubt the performance improvement of any A330Neo on regional sectors would not be sacrificed for any long range capabilities.


Cheers,
StickShaker

[Edited 2014-03-20 01:44:42]

User currently offlineseahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 1308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 41135 times:

RR claims the advance engine line will be ready by the end of the decade - so EIS 2019 could be possible.

User currently offlineStTim From UK - England, joined Aug 2013, 837 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (9 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 40984 times:

Agree don't want to go too far off topic but Boeing only did the 777X due to the success of the A350-1000

User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10227 posts, RR: 97
Reply 4, posted (9 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 40749 times:
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Quoting StickShaker, reply=1:
There are now quite a few airlines pushing Airbus to proceed with the A330Neo - are there any airlines who are firmly resisting the push for the A330Neo (ie the "don't change a thing" brigade) ?

I think the point that needs to be brought out here is that, whether the airlines/lessors are really interested in the A330NEO, or are looking for some airbus leverage vs the 787, the fact is that they now seem to see the A330NEO as the answer in both cases.

I don't hear a growing clamour for an optimisation of the A350-800 and I hear no customer at all saying "Please don't change it"

It is seems very clear that the customers, from their perspective, see the A330NEO as Airbus's most appropriate response.
Airbus need to see the same thing though (and I can't really see any reason why they shouldn't)

Quoting StTim, reply=4:
Agree don't want to go too far off topic but Boeing only did the 777X due to the success of the A350-1000

I'd venture to suggest that it would be more accurate to say that Boeing did the 777X because of the very real THREAT posed by the A350-1000 (i.e. the potential success)

Suffice to say, that pointing at the huge MOU's from those ME airlines that were always going to place mega orders for the 777X as being in some way reflective of the A350-1000's long term prospects, or lack of, is, frankly, infantile.
(As is dismissing the 777X as an "ME3 special" on the flip side).

Rgds


User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4952 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (9 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 40731 times:

It is quite enlightening that we are now into the 6th thread debating this topic three and a half years after nearly the same question was posed, perhaps not for the first time.....

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/AirbusA330NEO.jpg

Airbus A330 NEO, Will It Stand A Chance? (by keesje Aug 13 2010 in Civil Aviation)#1


.....due in large part IMHO to Airbus practically consigning the A358 to the "recycle later" bin...and for very good reasons too, I would say.



"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12919 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (9 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 40616 times:

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):
We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).

Yes, and yes... Sorry for a bit of excess exuberance...



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineStickShaker From Australia, joined Sep 2004, 759 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (9 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 40589 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 7):
Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).
Yes, and yes... Sorry for a bit of excess exuberance...

That's OK - all good fun.  


Cheers,
StickShaker


User currently offlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3451 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (9 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 40502 times:

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):

Technically the end of the decade is December 31, 2020.

tortugamon


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4934 posts, RR: 40
Reply 9, posted (9 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 40400 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 9):
Technically the end of the decade is December 31, 2020.

A sharp and correct observation. Many people think this decade ends on 31.12.2019, but that is not true. 31.12.2020 is the correct date.  Wink.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):
RR claims the advance engine line will be ready by the end of the decade - so EIS 2019 could be possible.

Well, but you need quite a long flight test program before the EIS. So there is still a lot unclear about this possible engine. No doubt it will come, but when and how exactly are still open questions.

[Edited 2014-03-20 06:54:18]

User currently offlineseahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 1308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (9 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 40360 times:

As they talk about advance by 2020 and the next step by 2025, I think they will be probably quite advanced in the design phase. The next issue of the German Aero International magazine promises are lager feature about the future RR engine. So maybe it will gives us some clues.

User currently offlinedeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1663 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (9 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 40183 times:

Will this potential new A330NEO have range to do solid west coast of US to Asia flights? Would LH be potential customer to replace A346 on Munich to Los Angeles/San Francisco?

User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5824 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (9 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 40170 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):
I think the point that needs to be brought out here is that, whether the airlines/lessors are really interested in the A330NEO, or are looking for some airbus leverage vs the 787, the fact is that they now seem to see the A330NEO as the answer in both cases.

I don't hear a growing clamour for an optimisation of the A350-800 and I hear no customer at all saying "Please don't change it"

   The A330neo would be optimized for a whole lot of real-world flights. The A350-800 as it stands today is optimized for a tiny handful of them. And after seeing the 787-3 and Airbus's A350-900 Regional proposal I think buyers are convinced that it's Really Hard to re-optimize a ULH aircraft to do well on short missions.

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):
Will this potential new A330NEO have range to do solid west coast of US to Asia flights? Would LH be potential customer to replace A346 on Munich to Los Angeles/San Francisco?

The existing A330 can already do US west coast to Tokyo or Seoul solidly. If the A330neo is a minimum change derivative, its better fuel burn would likely allow it to pick up a few more East Asian destinations. But I think Airbus might trade some of that range for a bit lower OEW if it had the choice, to further separate the A330neo from the A350-900.


User currently offlinepacksonflight From Iceland, joined Jan 2010, 391 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 40106 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):
It is seems very clear that the customers, from their perspective, see the A330NEO as Airbus's most appropriate response.
Airbus need to see the same thing though (and I can't really see any reason why they shouldn't)

If Airbus elects to keep the door open for the 350-1100, dropping the 800 is a smart move in order not to max out the capability of the whole 350 production line, which is around 13 items per month. Specially if they can develop the 330NEO for the same amount of money they would spend developing the 800.

The cherry on top is the leverage they would gain over the three engine makers when they start bidding for exclusivity on the 330NEO


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31375 posts, RR: 85
Reply 14, posted (9 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 39931 times:
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Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):
The 330Neo position seems to be firstly whether to do it or not and secondly the degree of updated engine technology required to make the aircraft sufficiently competitive.

I also think each engine OEM has different criteria since I am sure this will be a sole-source contract.

I don't see GE being interested in an all-new engine. I expect they're proposal is based on the GEnx2B (essentially resurrecting the GEnx1A for the original A350) that they can bring to market with "minimal" risk and cost.

RR, om the other hand, has to develop a new engine because they don't have a bleed-air version of the Trent 1000 family and the Trent XWB is too large for the role. They're also the dominant supplier on the current program so they have an incentive to do more to maintain that position (they also can draw on financial support from the UK to develop that new engine).

I don't see P&W being in this fight. They're still working on the PW1000 series of GTFs and I don't see them having the resources (financial and practical) to launch a new engine family with over twice the thrust. I see them more concentrating on ensuring a smooth EIS for the PW1000 series and scale it to support the largest models of NSA/NRA (the "757 replacement").


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12919 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (9 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 39775 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
They're still working on the PW1000 series of GTFs and I don't see them having the resources (financial and practical) to launch a new engine family with over twice the thrust.

The bulk of the engineering is done for the PW1000 series. The C series is up and running and the A320neo variant is in final build according to an article I read a few weeks ago. The main issue for Pratt is that there is no other new platform being considered till the NSA so its A330neo or nothing. I think they are making a serious run to get onto the A330neo but I'm not sure if Airbus likes the risk that comes with their proposal.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31375 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (9 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 39678 times:
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Quoting Revelation (Reply 15):
I think they are making a serious run to get onto the A330neo but I'm not sure if Airbus likes the risk that comes with their proposal.

Then again, the A330 might be the program to "risk". If P&W can develop a "PW2000" in the 70-80,000 pound thrust range, they not only get a great engine for the A330, they could also get one for the A380. And the easiest way for Airbus to deal with choosing RR or EA on the A380neo could be to kick both to the curb and move forward with PW.

And if PW fails and the "PW2000" becomes another PW8000 (SuperFan), then the A330 is already going the way of the A340, so they soldier forward with what they have (stands to reason RR would develop a Trent 700EP3 PiP).


User currently offlineseahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 1308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 39665 times:

Pratt wil be in the running, as by 2025 they won´t have the only GTF in the market, as the UltraFan concept by RR is designed as a GTF and aimed for a EIS of 2025.

The RR Advance concept is aiming for the end of the decade and aiming to be 20% more efficient as 1st gen. Trent engines. UltraFan would add another 5%.


User currently offlineProst From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1220 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (9 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 39625 times:

Would it be prudent for Airbus to optimise a wing/engine combo for the A350-800/(possible)700 so that the 'family' can stretch from 250 seats up to ~375 in the A350-1000?

From my perspective the investment in the A350 line would be more beneficial than in extending the life of a previous generation aircraft, good though she may be.


User currently offlineIslandRob From US Virgin Islands, joined Apr 2011, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (9 months 2 days ago) and read 39585 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 4):
Suffice to say, that pointing at the huge MOU's from those ME airlines that were always going to place mega orders for the 777X as being in some way reflective of the A350-1000's long term prospects, or lack of, is, frankly, infantile.
(As is dismissing the 777X as an "ME3 special" on the flip side).

A refreshingly (and surprisingly) fair observation, although I don't think the second sentence should be parenthesized as it is equally valid and applicable.

Wish this type of objective analysis of the A v. B lineups was more pervasive on anet. Thanks and regards. -ir



If you wrote me off I'd understand it, Because I've been on some other planet, So come pick me up... I've landed
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13068 posts, RR: 35
Reply 20, posted (9 months 2 days ago) and read 39573 times:

Quoting Prost (Reply 18):
From my perspective the investment in the A350 line would be more beneficial than in extending the life of a previous generation aircraft, good though she may be.

On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20+ jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineMayohoo From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 30 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (9 months 2 days ago) and read 39479 times:

We can speculate all we want, but I am guessing that the total Business case for a 330NEO may not be as solid as Airbus would like. The 350-800 is not popular, so it seems to be 330NEO versus doing nothing (at least according to Anet wisdom). I am not sure if the Resource outlay (engineering etc) makes sense for them as the 350 program is the main target followed by production ramp up. A 330 NEO may buy 8-10 years? but the 787 will eventually blow through its back log and be offered in a timely fashion by 2020 or so (presuming Boeing gets its act together?). So why not keep selling the 330 as is as long as it lasts (2020?) and place your chips on a 320 replacement by 2027 (8 year lead time) or a fresh 330 CFRP?

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 13068 posts, RR: 35
Reply 22, posted (9 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 39392 times:

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
A 330 NEO may buy 8-10 years?

Something like that.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
but the 787 will eventually blow through its back log and be offered in a timely fashion by 2020 or so

In the last 10 years, about 1800 787 and A330 jets have been sold in the 250-300 seat market (around 900 each). The forecast for the next 20 years is 4000+ jets, i.e. another 2000 per decade.

Unless Boeing ramps 787-8 and 787-9 production up to 200 jets annually (-10 not included), they will never be able to meet demand. This market segment is big enough for both manufactures.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
or a fresh 330 CFRP

Although Airbus managed to sell about the same numbers of A330s as 787-8/9s in the last 10 years, they will have nothing to offer in the next decade when the A330 replacement market kicks in. The A350-800 will be dead by then, and many customers are seeing the -900 and -1000 as A340/777 replacement.

Without new or updated product offering from 2020, all sales in the 250-300 seat market between 2020 and 2030 will go to Boeing. And Airbus can never have a clean-sheet A330 replacement ready by 2020.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
320 replacement

The A320 replacement will be developed simultaneously with the wide-body programs.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10227 posts, RR: 97
Reply 23, posted (9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 39274 times:
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Quoting IslandRob (Reply 19):
A refreshingly (and surprisingly) fair observation, although I don't think the second sentence should be parenthesized as it is equally valid and applicable.

A fair comment ...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20 jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.

The prime reason for doing the NEO in my opinion, whilst also freeing up the entire A350 range and production line to focus on the bigger, more valuable jets.

rgds


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31375 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 39176 times:
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Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20+ jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.

I'm with CIT in that I don't see the A330neo being able to maintain a 10-unit per month delivery rate. I expect it will be more along the lines of 4-5.

Still, that's 4-5 planes a month on a fully amortized production line...


25 RickNRoll : Quoting Revelation post 248: The whole reason the 777-9X has massive orders before EIS is due to the shortcomings of the A350-1000... The A350-1000 an
26 KarelXWB : Running the A350 at 14 per month and the A330neo at 6 per month is what I had in mind (20 together).
27 Post contains links fraport : Maybe we have to rename the thread into "A330 NEO bekoming LESS likely". German aero.de reports that Airbus seems less bullish than anticipated by the
28 seahawk : the best argument for the NEO is that they could go without the A358, which could allow them to add a A350-1100 if they want or see a place for it.
29 panais : The A350-900 with the A350-800 engines might be the new A333.
30 JerseyFlyer : It will be the already-announced A350 Regional which will sit above the A333 neo, especially if fitted with 10x Y as Air Asia intend to do.
31 parapente : reply 26 Running the A350 at 14 per month and the A330neo at 6 per month is what I had in mind (20 together). Which is what it's all about. 1.Can the
32 Mayohoo : Well, maybe a dumb question but would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines? Would that plus
33 tortugamon : Tom (head engineer) said that the same engine should not be used for both the A330neo and the A380neo. I still do not understand why. Now that would
34 Stitch : Yes they could. It would improve it's competitive position against the 787... ...but would also improve it's competitive position against the A350...
35 Post contains images Mayohoo : Good point. What the heck, optimize the 350-800, rewing and rengine the 330. There, I have infinite power and resources. Good plan
36 RickNRoll : The 777X didn't do that and stay competitive with the A350, it did that and it moved up to a new market segment. They didn't try to take on the A350
37 seabosdca : That worked for the 777 for two reasons: 1) the extra capacity Boeing was able to add, and 2) the wing extension, which made up for the fact that the
38 Revelation : As they should be, because Advances (pardon the pun) in engine technology will certainly migrate to the 787 either by PIPs or re-engining, so 787 won
39 JerseyFlyer : Possible - yes. But why? If they are prepared to invest in a new wing, they would be better mating it to a shortened A350 fuselage.
40 Post contains images brindabella : Hmm, a firm "maybe" to that. Better product? Better for long term? But loses advantage of existing industrialisation as well as competing for (alread
41 ncfc99 : Would it be cost effective to convert part of the 330 FAL to 350 FAL to ramp up production of the 350 to 20-25 units per month. I understand other su
42 rheinwaldner : Others are very convinced that this won't happen with 777X engine technology...
43 tortugamon : I believe one of the primary bottle knocks is the UK wing fabrication facility that is based upon 14/month. I understand further expansion may be ver
44 KarelXWB : The 777X needs a bigger wing than the A350. Not only increased wing span, wing area will be larger as well. The A330 wing however is already larger t
45 tortugamon : I am surprised to read the a330 wing is larger than the 787. 787 has more of a swept back angle (faster aircraft) but it does have a higher aspect ra
46 Stitch : Probably significant. And Airbus would not want to ramp that high because I doubt there is a market for that many A350s a month and if there was, it
47 Post contains images brindabella : Two out of three? Fail mark where the usual standard of analyses by Stitch is concerned! But a bit more seriously, the 3 main reasons: 1. Will the ma
48 rheinwaldner : What about 777-x the A350? Keep the cross section and the technology, spend a new, smaller wing and create an optimized medium range 220 to 420 seat
49 ncfc99 : The common consensus is that it will absorb 14 x A350 plus 8-10 x A330neo per month. I am suggesting 20-25 A350 plus 4-5 A330 per month as orders for
50 anfromme : I don't remember reading that, but two points I can think of are: 1) Size/Weight: An A330neo engine would be way heavier/larger and deliver more thru
51 parapente : Reply 50 Quoting tortugamon (Reply 33): Tom (head engineer) said that the same engine should not be used for both the A330neo and the A380neo. I still
52 rheinwaldner : Sure. I thought more about the 777X efforts and not the exact solution. The A350 based solution would look like an A300, but with the A350 cross sect
53 Post contains images anfromme : Sorry, got everything the wrong way round there
54 Stitch : That may be the common Airbus Aficionado consensus, but the market consensus is not that high as there is also those 14-16 787s a month that need to
55 seabosdca : I don't think there are enough potential sales of such a concept to make it worth the investment. What you are proposing is an all-new airplane excep
56 Post contains links tortugamon : The 787-10 is in between the two A350 models (I assume the A358 will be dropped when A330neo is launched) and it has the smaller wing and the regiona
57 rheinwaldner : aka 77X. Why? IMO it is not at all bigger. Actually mating a 20 year old alu fuselage to a new cfrp wing seems to be the larger task. I suggest new s
58 seabosdca : You are proposing new landing gear, horizontal and vertical stabs, and a wing that's so much smaller that systems will need substantial change. The 7
59 tortugamon : Because the current ~65m wing is already a small wing for an 80m long A350-1100? I like the smaller wing idea for the A358 but that would negate the
60 KarelXWB : That figure includes the 787-10 as well. The A330neo would be sitting in the 200-300 seat market; Boeing puts the 787-10 in the 300-400 seat market.
61 tortugamon : Sure but it still needed leading edge extensions on the A351. Adding another stretch with the same wing would result in wing proportions not seen in
62 parapente : Much of this discussion revolves around the fact that the 350 production line will be maxed out producing (very profitable) -9-10 even -11's. So there
63 seahawk : That depends on the performance you are aiming for. A simple stretch seems possible to me. Stretching and keeping performance (range) up, would proba
64 tortugamon : Agreed I believe that to be true as well. tortugamon
65 Post contains images Stitch : I expect such a plane might fare about as well as the 777-300A... In terms of usable range at usable payloads, the 787-10 and A330-300neo are going t
66 seabosdca : I was unclear -- my comment was directed toward the sub-250-seat market in particular, which the short-winged, stubby A350-based "A300" proposed by R
67 Post contains links and images rheinwaldner : - I forgot to add "imagine these aircraft ... being the most efficient planes around". - I also don't agree that the 77W is not wanted by anybody. No
68 tortugamon : I would take another look at parapente's post in #62. The A350 is spoken for. Maybe 10 years from now they will be looking to add something but for t
69 lightsaber : Rumor mill alert. One of my contacts at one of the Nacelle vendors has informed me that Airbus is seeking bids for an A330NEO nacelle. The individual
70 aviaponcho : Hello Lightsaber Just one question Who has already VFAN ? PW (developped but not used) and GE (on leap ?) So no RR ?
71 seahawk : Sounds like PW. GEnx 2B hardly fits the bill, if not up-dated compared to the 748. A RR engine of the Advanced line could also be an option.
72 seabosdca : And yet somehow they won't put their money where their mouths are. The 787-10 has done OK thus far, but has not yet attracted the huge orders some we
73 KarelXWB : Aha I see. Yes I agree on that; I also expect the real 737/A320/757 successors (whatever they may be) to be tailor made for that 200-250 seat market.
74 Post contains images Stitch : Other than already being in service and available years before an RR or PW option in an environment where time to market is probably one of, if not t
75 Post contains images parapente : Reply 69 One of my contacts at one of the Nacelle vendors has informed me that Airbus is seeking bids for an A330NEO Hmm if true is exciting.For which
76 Post contains links and images Devilfish : Could actually be a tight fit..... View Large View MediumPhoto © Lars Hentschel Might be the reason for the request for bids. Wonder if an RFP for l
77 trex8 : Don't RR supply their own nacelles? GE trying to find a supplier for the GEnx2?
78 tortugamon : Great info, thanks buddy. Recently it sounded like they were slow-playing it but this sounds otherwise. How many years was it on offer before the 77W
79 Stitch : The 777-300 predates the 777-300ER by about five years in terms of ATO and six years in term of EIS. To be fair, the 777-300 was aimed at the 747-200
80 Post contains links KarelXWB : Small updates from an analyst: http://twitter.com/e_russell
81 seahawk : I think today that is not that much of a problem. I think studies will be going on for years now, so any "new" engine for the NEO could already be qu
82 EnviableOne : OK, just for my sanity, after 5 and a half threads The story so far:- there seem to be three options Option A) A quick version EIS 2018 with some deri
83 Stitch : It is not provided annual widebody demand is strong enough that Airbus and Boeing cannot meet it with the A350 and 787, as that leaves room for an A3
84 KarelXWB : Somehow I doubt an A330neo with GEnx2B engine will last long. The RR Advance on the other hand might have a much better chance of extending the A330
85 Stitch : Assuming GE's offer is based on the GEnx2B, if Airbus rebuffs it, would Rolls even bother spending the money on making an Advance engine for the A330
86 KarelXWB : Because Rolls Royce will develop the Advance anyway, with or without A330. And last month, RR said "if Airbus would ask us to power an A330neo, we wi
87 mjoelnir : Producers want to sell their product. For RR the question would be how many more engines does on sell with moving the A330 to neo and the advanced en
88 tortugamon : I suspect their cost of capital and their internal return on investment would preclude such an investment. I imagine the dynamics would have to be mu
89 Post contains links and images Devilfish : By which time the 781 will have hit its stride. What leaves room for an A330neo by default does the same for a potential 767neo. Which could make the
90 Post contains images Stitch : I agree they will be willing to build it for the A380 because they're not on the 777X (which looks to be popular in more of the world than just the M
91 seahawk : Would GE be interested if the 748 would sell better? I think the A330NEO will interest all 3 engine makers. It is (A380NEO apart) the only major aircr
92 Post contains links astuteman : [ I'm pretty sure RR have explicitly said they are in talks with Airbus to produce an Advance engine for the A330. They are developing the Advance wha
93 aviaponcho : Opening a new Leap Plant GE boss has basically said that he already has handfull and no interest/ time for A330 - A380 new engines (Flightglobal PRO)
94 KarelXWB : If the -1100 materializes, it will be with the Trent XWB engine. I doubt Airbus will re-engine the A350 that soon. Whatever they are saying, RR will
95 flyglobal : My impression is that GE and Airbus have a problem- and this is probably about the leaders in the first and the second hirachy. I have heard that Airb
96 mjoelnir : That is how you calculate additional sales. The normal sales, that what you calculate to be able to sell without additional investment, should in any
97 parapente : Whilst the 'unblocked' Chinese order for the A330 is good news ,it is the potential additional order for 150 which is the one they need to take them t
98 Post contains images lightsaber : First, I know no new information other than the nacelle bid. One (possibly two) of the nacelle vendors and Pratt. Note I didn't say GE... RR has been
99 Post contains links and images Revelation : In Flightglobal: What does Boeing's 777X mean for airlines and Airbus?, Boeing’s marketing VP Randy Tinseth says pretty much the same thing: Despit
100 KarelXWB : Marketing at its best. Tinseth of course loves to say the A340 was killed by its own 777 while others will argue ETOPS and high fuel prices killed it.
101 Revelation : By definition if they are comfortable with the current position, then they don't feel they have a problem. I could see how they'll be quite comfortab
102 Post contains links and images Devilfish : GE might also very well think that the 764 is a dog thereby not bothering to offer Boeing the GEnx2B for it. I wish there would be a 767MAX to fill i
103 astuteman : If we've convinced ourselves that the VLA market doesn't exist (and God knows we've spent enough effort on this site trying to do just that), then su
104 neutronstar73 : That is a gorgeous plane and paint scheme. I wish the 767 can be reborn as a 767NG. Such a comfortable plane to fly. Perhaps it can be used as a basi
105 OldAeroGuy : But ETOPS and higher fuel prices were what made the 773ER a winner compared to the A346. The contest would have been more hard fought if Airbus had h
106 Stitch : P&W wants in because they're at risk of being frozen out of the widebody market for decades and once they have been out that long, they're going
107 Revelation : It must be said the article cold water on the shorter range part of the spectrum too: Yet there really is no other a/c that fills the regional wide b
108 tortugamon : If the neo uses the 787 engines it should be a heavier aircraft than the 787. I don't buy the argument that it would be better on short missions than
109 scbriml : Does it not lift a fair bit more payload?
110 Stitch : That is the case for the A330-200, which looks to be around 53,000kg with the highest Weight Variant compared to 43,000kg for the 787-8. However, the
111 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : Brazilian airline Azul is in talks with Airbus, Boeing and lessors about a wide-body order. The 787-8 is one of the models under review. Airbus’s cu
112 Stitch : As I expected, Air Purchase Lease has cancelled their order for 12 A350-800s. This leaves only 34 customers for the type, of which 10 I am sure are al
113 Post contains links KarelXWB : Airbus is talking about the NEO again: http://twitter.com/e_russell http://twitter.com/AvWeekFlottau[Edited 2014-04-04 11:30:21]
114 Stitch : So launch at Farnborough, I imagine.
115 KarelXWB : Perhaps. We don't know if ATO launch has yet to happen. If the ATO launch happens at Farnborough, the public launch will most likely have to wait unti
116 Post contains images PW100 : Well, considering the recent trend of the A358 orderbook, should we still be debating if it is competitive against the 350 . . . ?
117 KarelXWB : It has to be competitive against the A350, otherwise everyone will buy the A350 instead. I think we should read this as "the A330neo will have (almost
118 Post contains images Stitch : Four years ago, Airbus was saying that even as a straight shrink, the A350-800 would offer 23% better fuel burn per seat on a 4000nm mission compared
119 Post contains links KarelXWB : I'm sure it could eat into A359 sales, but it will not take all sales. The difference between the A330-300neo and A350-900 would be about the same as
120 Theredbaron : 100% agree, the engine will be a better proposition if used on this platform (high sales) and the A380NEO (low sales but 4 engines per frame) US Airl
121 texl1649 : It will be unprecedented if true. A new wb derivative that is slightly less efficient than the current competitor thanks to getting a new wing and hal
122 JerseyFlyer : There has been speculation (and John Leahy thinking aloud) that the A358 will eventually be be re-born with a small stretch. Assuming that will be so
123 Post contains links SQ22 : Some news: Quote: Airbus is likely to make a decision on whether to move forward with a re-engined A330 by the middle of 2014, says Airbus Americas pr
124 tortugamon : I am sure Airlines have orders of magnitude more information then the general public has but Airbus' strategy in this space is very inconsistent. The
125 trex8 : When they were designing the A350 Mk 1 with the GEnx wasn't the wing just a modified A330 wing?? In which case wouldn't a significant amount of the wo
126 seabosdca : I fail to see how this will generate a single sale that the 359 wouldn't. I think that's why it apparently proved to be a flight of fancy. I think th
127 StickShaker : Are the 320Neo and 737Max programs "band aid solutions" ? The 330Neo represents a late life derivative which balances availability, performance, tech
128 Stitch : As an outsider, to me the issues facing Airbus in this space is that the A350-800 - optimized or not - just isn't competitive against the 787-8 and 7
129 lightsaber : I concur. There seem to be mixed messages. So the question is the request for nacelle quotes just 'keeping options open' or more? I suspect no one ye
130 Post contains links tortugamon : Here is the quote from January: http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/AW_01_20_2014_p34-654795.xml Completely agree. The A320neo definitely is
131 mjoelnir : A main difference between the A330 and B787 will be purchase price, you will get less range, higher fuel burn for a significantly lower price. And tha
132 StTim : Correct - the key question is can Airbus with a neo make that trade off attractive to buyers - together with the earlier availability. If they can the
133 KarelXWB : During the early talks of a new project, all options are on the table. Launching an A330neo for such a short time period seems a bit pointless. The b
134 aviaponcho : And if it's all about price, GenX and T1000 can go under the wings of the A330 with minimal cost for engine manufacturer, and so with minimal premium
135 Post contains images tortugamon : I don't believe that this perceived indecision just a couple months before launch is all that common. The A358 hasn't sold in nearly six years and th
136 seahawk : Regarding the engine, RR says an RR advance demonstrator will be running 2015. A Trent 1000 with a fan made from carbon fibre will be flying this year
137 Post contains images columba : Or Berlin Air Show
138 KarelXWB : Not odd at all. They just started A330neo studies in 2013. Addressing the A350-800 became a priority after the A350-1000 design was frozen. Airbus wi
139 Post contains images seabosdca : I think Airbus has to consider the possibility of a "mutually assured destruction" scenario here... if the A330neo has enough of an engine advantage
140 Post contains images Stitch : It would also improve the competitiveness of the 787-9 and 787-10 against the A350-900 and A350-1000.
141 Post contains images astuteman : You did follow the 737/NSA saga I presume .... In all seriousness, I think there is a slight irony at play here .... From "the 787 is a Chinese copy
142 Post contains images lightsaber : You weren't around for the 747-5/6... When it is a matter of making sales or not, programs swing widely. The same indecision was there for the exclus
143 tortugamon : Do you really see the A320 going clean sheet by 2025? I don't think they will need to make a move until later in the decade. The A330neo engine is go
144 KarelXWB : Well, somewhere between 2025 and 2030, i.e. some 10 years after the A320neo. Development and production will have to start earlier. Anyway, whether i
145 Stitch : Depends on when and what model Boeing launches NSA with. I'm inclined to believe it will be the 737-900ER / 737-9 / 757-200 replacement and that will
146 tortugamon : If you are right and then they will need this A330neo to sell well into the mid 2030s and I think they may want to forget about 2017 and start thinki
147 seabosdca : Both OEMs remember well just how much Boeing's (and MD's, for that matter) lackadaisical response to the A320 ended up costing. Either one will do ju
148 seahawk : That is indeed true, but I wonder why RR gave the mentioned data to the press, when they are not looking at a Trent 700 replacement with the Advanced
149 leo467 : ... with the one exception being the A380... granted, it might not be a high volume play, which could pay off its R&D expenses easily, but it cou
150 seahawk : But then why would you compare your Advance engine to the Trent 700 when talking to the press.
151 JerseyFlyer : Is there a way that a forward plan to integrate T1000ten into the 330 by 2017 followed by Advance later can be engineered to make the eventual swap t
152 seahawk : Given a similar fan diameter - probably. But would a bleed air version of the 1000 make sense for such a short period of use? How about: A330NEO with
153 mjoelnir : It did not use to be such a big deal to hang a new engine from a new supplier or a new engine from the old supplier under the wings of a frame. But m
154 tortugamon : I think they would be working on it regardless. They know that GE is working on the GE9x which will end up in the GEnx and they could lose out on fut
155 Stitch : I find it a bit disingenuous to claim Boeing's response was "lackadaisical" considering Airbus launched the A320-100 one month after the 737-300 had
156 Post contains links seahawk : True, but the interesting points from the Aero article: 1. RR compares the Advance to the Trent 700 2. they confirm Advance is based on their bid for
157 StTim : You also have to remember how long Boeing continued to dismiss the idea of a MAX right up until the point they announced it and the preformance of it
158 tortugamon : Sorry seahawk, are you suggesting that the Advance gets used on the A330neo? That is certainly one of the options if that is what you are getting at
159 mjoelnir : One should compare the price of the trend advanced rather with the Trend 1000 or GEnx. The A330 without engines should still have a significantly low
160 tortugamon : Right and it appears that those are the dynamics that are being analyzed right now. How many customers are willing to pay more for a more fuel effici
161 Post contains links seahawk : I think it is possible that they are thinking about a Advance engine for the NEO imho. Design parameters are easy, weight, thrust and even ground cle
162 Post contains links Millenium : It seems it might not be heavier than the T1000. The new materials used compared to earlier Trents (T1000 and XWB I presume) should reduce weight by
163 Stitch : I would not be surprised if RR is pitching the Advance for both the A330 and A380 programs. Not the same engine, of course, but the same general famil
164 tortugamon : Of course they are looking at it. Do you think the timing of all of these articles is coincidence? I am surer RR wants to do it if the numbers make s
165 mffoda : I'm kind of curious to know much room (weight) they have left to work with for a neo? How much more weight can they put on this landing gear, before i
166 Post contains images lightsaber : The advance has prospects... If Airbus can wait until 2020 for the A330NEO. It will be pitched, but I question if enough OEO orders will happen to ke
167 KarelXWB : I think everyone agrees that most NEO sales would go to the A333 version.
168 trex8 : Would they do a A333neo freighter or stick with an A332?? And if they offer the A332 neo freighter they might as well offer a pax version. Though I ag
169 lightsaber : Agreed. But it would be certified as a hull for freighters as: The current A332F lacks range with higher payloads, so most likely it would be the sho
170 Stitch : As a passenger plane, yes, but it would help the freighter model. Airbus has approved an A330-300P2F conversion so it stands to reason that we will s
171 mjoelnir : I see the Advanced Trent as coming in less heavy than the Trent 1000. Same thrust range. A smaller, higher pressure, more efficient core, a slightly l
172 mjoelnir : If there is a market for the A330-300F than Airbus will build it and why bother about if you sell a A330-200 or A330-300, the money goes into the sam
173 mffoda : Ordinary, I would agree with you. But, they have to trade off the benefits of the existing winglet vs. the new one. Whatever benefit they are present
174 Stitch : Well evidently that was the reason Airbus waited so long to launch the A330-200F. *shrug*
175 Post contains images mffoda : As for your first point? about the RR Advance being lighter than the Trent-1000-ten? I'm not so sure... "All", I say again "All" modern TF jet engine
176 mjoelnir : Airbus tested a lot of different winglets on the A320 most of them looking about the same but giving different results. The design of the A330 wingle
177 BoeingVista : And as I always point out a carbon fibre fan and case will save you about 800kg per unit.. And RR have said the advance will have a CF fan.
178 tortugamon : It doesn't matter if the advanced is lighter than the Trent 1000/Ten (not convinced but it is possible) it's all about adding weight vs the existing
179 seahawk : I think a new winglet is a given. Do not forget that the A330 is a little different to the 767 or 757 as it already has a winglet and a wing designed
180 panais : It seems that taking off weight that is there because of the A340 legacy will make the A330 regional more competitive than with a new engine.
181 tommy1808 : There are still a few tons between 242 and the 276,5 t MTOW of an A340-300E. Wing and fuselage should be able to haul a lot more if needed. What i do
182 ncfc99 : It was mentioned above that if RR are going to put a brand new engine(the advance) on the 330 they would want Airbus to put a bit more effort into the
183 panais : Re-winging the A330 should be compared to an option to re-wing the A350 to produce a similar plane to the B787. Airbus has the option of optimising t
184 StTim : The problem with creating a new A350 type family to compete with the 787 is that the supply chain will be full with the current planned models for the
185 seahawk : 2000nm is not enough. 3000nm is what Airbus sees as a good solution and I think I agree with that. It is good for Middle East - Europe; Europe - Canar
186 StickShaker : Not to forget all the other variables - existing commonality, spares, training etc etc. Is there any chance a 330Neo could be offered with or without
187 panais : Do not agree with this. Vendors need to plan their growth for the next years. Giving them growth with zero development costs while at the same time,
188 KarelXWB : Regarding the weight of the airframe, I recently had a chat with former forum member keesje and he believes Airbus will take the opportunity to remov
189 aviaponcho : Karel, Wings for the A340 are lighter than wings for the A330 from what I read in an A330 book. Indeed the 2 external engine are acting like counterwe
190 mjoelnir : Wings for the A340 are heavier than wings for the A330. They are the same, but the A340 wing has as an extra the attach point for the outer engine an
191 aviaponcho : Mjoelnir do you have drawings ? I'll have engine weight and gear weight for both, i'll try to do the math ASAP.
192 mjoelnir : but the GE engines seem to be heavier than the RR even with the RR stated that the new composite fan of the Advanced will reduce weight against earli
193 mjoelnir : Sorry no drawings, just the information if I can find it again. But regarding the wing of the A330 their should not be any structures in the A330 win
194 aviaponcho : So we agree A340 wing is not stronger than A330 wing, it's the contrary... So if weight can be gained in A330, it can be in the wingbox and in the fus
195 hloutweg : I think he meant that you would use the same wing, the A340's, to carry less MTOW on a twin engined aircraft. The wing is the same on the A330, but r
196 Post contains links and images mffoda : But it also has an extra MLG to support it... The question remains - What is max capacity of the A330 gear? I recently remember someone at Airbus say
197 tommy1808 : In combination that leads to the question if the A330 Leahy is talking about might be well above 242ton MTOW and has enormous payload potential? Why
198 KarelXWB : The EIS of 2018 is based on the assumption that the current A330 will not gain any new orders anymore, meaning the A330 backlog would be empty before
199 Post contains images Stitch : The last thing the A330neo needs is more MTOW. If Airbus re-wings anything, they need to re-wing the A350-800 to 60m so it can be lighter and better
200 Post contains images KarelXWB : Well, around that same time an Airbus spokesman also said the A330neo will have to be low risk with minimal changes. Today they are looking into aero
201 tortugamon : Of course these are all true and certainly can aid in the decision making. Agreed, I think even 3knm may not quite be enough. DL for example, is inte
202 odwyerpw : Honestly, I never thought the A330 would see substantial rework following the introduction of the A350. With so many cancellations of the A358, many a
203 tortugamon : How valuable is availability? At why point is it valuable for an OEM and at what point is it too long? I think these are going to become interesting q
204 astuteman : This is nice and convenient. But over-simplistic and a long way from the complete truth..... They did indeed, and some quite respected ones, too. I w
205 seahawk : I was just thinking about the "regional" version. There need to be versions with longer legs.
206 aviaponcho : For the record, The CLG on A340 is 1400 kg (complete with door, hydraulics) I guess the sweet spot for A330-300NEO in typical 2 cl layout is 6500 Nm.
207 EnviableOne : I agree if it comes to major rework, the 330 will get dumped and they will re-work the 358 to cover the area. just out of interest what would it take
208 mjoelnir : Through away the tooling and use the buildings. I think the A330 will top out at the MTOW of 242, no increase for a neo. Let the engines be one ton h
209 art : Agreed, If Airbus were to invest in designing a new wing a big investment in the future makes more sense than a big investment in the past. I imagine
210 Asiaflyer : I think you nailed it there. The majority of future A330neo customers will buy it for reduced fuelburn/lower CASM and not for using it at maximum ran
211 Post contains images aviaponcho : Indeed I made a mistake, CLG is 834 kg (without door weight) I've done some homework usinf MFP and weight of some component A340-300 lading gear is l
212 Post contains images mat66 : After following this long thread (and others) over the last weeks I think it was overly optimistic/simplistic on Airbus's part to cover this market wi
213 Prost : I think it's interesting that with all the resources both Airbus and Boeing have, neither optimized their midranged planes over the whole broad spectr
214 Post contains images mat66 : very true but Boeing apparently has the recourses to do quite some work on the 777X - cabin width, all new folding(!) wing, engines - by 2020 AND ann
215 JerseyFlyer : They really do need the mooted 200 copy order from China for Regional ceos.
216 Post contains images Stitch : I think Airbus had the right idea, frankly. However, the A350-800 as a shrink was facing a baseline (-8) and optimized (-9) 787 model. It also didn't
217 blrsea : What would be the sweet spot for A330NEO's range that would make it comparable to 788? Along with mjoelnir's modifications, would removing some fuel t
218 flash330 : What about a common wing and engine between the 330 and the 320, that will give the 320 extra range and performance and lower weight for the 330?
219 Stitch : The A330-200HGW already offers similar range to the 787-8. You'd either have a wing far too large and heavy for the A320 or far to small for the A330
220 Post contains images blueshamu330s : ...Or something proportioned like those manipulated shots of a shortened A318 with a massive GEnx fan under the wing; it doesn't look right for a rea
221 flash330 : What if the 320 was stretched to 753 length and the 330 was shrunk to A300 length? I know its blue sky but gives AIrbus two unique models with a sing
222 Stitch : Then they'd end up with something similar to the 757-300 / 767-200ER: two planes that fill the same niche, but each that has negative aspects. The na
223 blrsea : What I was wondering was whether it would be useful to reduce the range of 330NEO , which could result in weight reduction, which would make it's CAS
224 Stitch : An airline could order the airframe with lower operating weights (MTOW, MZFW) and engine thrust, which would save them money on the purchase price an
225 KarelXWB : The three models would have been fine if Airbus had decided to optimize the A358.
226 tortugamon : Ok, i see what you were saying now. I don't think additional investment in final assembly is the only bottleneck. Wing production is said to not be a
227 Post contains images mat66 : Weren't most of the A358 orders originally for the A350Mk.1 anyway? I don't have the numbers in front of me but the A358XWB never sold well if I'm no
228 Post contains images mat66 : thanks, well put together.
229 Post contains images Devilfish : Knew I was onto something good with that 767-400ERX/GEnx2B/PIP1 package of yours! . Airbus should just resize and optimize the A358 to compete head-o
230 tortugamon : The 789's should be coming off the production line at around 7-8 per month from 2017 onward for the better part of a decade. The A350 line won't be a
231 Stitch : We saw QR order the 787-8 instead (their original 2005 order was for 60 frames, of which I believe half were A350-800s and half were A350-900s) so th
232 tortugamon : I personally believe that QR plans on executing their 30 options and I would not be surprised if they ordered all 789s with that order. If Boeing wou
233 Post contains images lightsaber : Concur. The A332NEO is an excellent freighter platform potentially. My comment was the A332NEOpax. I would benefit on routes above 1000nm. Almost cer
234 seahawk : Imho for Aibus it is a quite simple situation. The A350 line is capacity limited by the number of wings they can make, so they have the A359 and A351
235 rotating14 : I'm not sure but has the design freeze for the A351 been set? If not, how would A go from designing the A351 to a A3511? While not impossible it just
236 seahawk : A350-1100 to A350-1000 would be like 797-900 to 797-1000. Not impossible imho.
237 Devilfish : Their preeminent salesman could again work his magic on the airlines. Of course, that's assuming there's plenty of "substance" in the optimized A358
238 rotating14 : With the current events occurring around the A358 and the A330, do you really think that an optimized A358 will come as a result?
239 Post contains images Stitch : The flight test is going well, the plane is below spec weight and production seems to be fine, so he's probably pretty frustrated. Building on what s
240 Post contains images tortugamon : There are fewer things more predictable in aviation than drama with AAB You miss my point. It is not a sales problem. The A350 has a production 'prob
241 Post contains images Stitch : The A330-200 trailed the A330-300 by almost a decade and per one author, was developed because the 767-300ER was selling so well and the lack of perf
242 Burkhard : Why on earth? The A358 is an ULR plane, and will kill the 772LR in this role - but we know the market for ULR planes is limited to 100 per decade. Th
243 Stitch : The operating costs for a 777-200LR will be higher, but the 777 has solid edges in cargo volume, passenger capacity and payload weight. And the 777-8
244 seahawk : I would not say "better", I would say good enough. But at the time A350MkI was supposed to fight the full 787 line, while the 787 line also had a ded
245 Post contains images Stitch : At stage lengths greater than 500km, the 787-8 offered better economics than a 787-3, so I maintain it did it "better". And as the majority of weight
246 Aircellist : I understood Seahawk meant that Boeing, by reengining the 787, would kill the A330, but it may not want to do that (reengine the 787) yet…
247 Stitch : That makes much more sense. My apologies for misreading it.
248 Devilfish : The A358 in its current form is practically dead...and an A330neo can only do so much. Sooner or later (looking to be much later with the bottlenecks
249 frmrcapcadet : This post has discussed engine makers subsidizing Airbus for a 330nea, might it make more sense for Airbus to continue their ongoing improvements of t
250 Post contains links and images KarelXWB : They might also take additional A350s instead. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...oeing-about-continuing-787-390629/ I do not see people making c
251 Stitch : The initial rumors were GE approached Airbus with an offer to adapt the GEnx2B from the 747-8 to work with the A330 (GE had been the initial engine s
252 mffoda : The closer this neo thing gets to be coming a possibility? One should start looking at not only the technical merit's of this A/C, but also the financ
253 Revelation : Catching up after a bit of a vacation... Yes, and 787-8 should be seeing some good improvements over time. It has been said that 787-9 improvements wi
254 XT6Wagon : I think this has more to do with demanding a certain Passenger + cargo range from both current and future frames. The Future frames burn less fuel so
255 rheinwaldner : It is fine to have a standard and a large number of 8000nm offerings in the product catalog. This does not mean, that only 8000nm planes are demanded
256 abba : I have made this point before as well. However, if the investment is small enough, a window of a certain number of years might be enough to make a re
257 RickNRoll : True, but it depends on how big your window is. If your costs for the upgrade are low, then it won't take long to get an ROI. Hence the insistence on
258 tommy1808 : So, basically the only solution to all of airbus problems would be a NEWO and not just a NEO, new engine and wing option. Costs a hell lot more money
259 JerseyFlyer : Standard for the new lighter-framed 787 / 350. Per Ferpe previously, these frames when loaded comprise a higher proportion of payload in "frame + pay
260 Post contains images Stitch : The 787-3 had an efficient, high aspect-ratio 52m CFRP wing and a ~10,000kg lower OEW and it absolutely failed in the marketplace because compared to
261 tommy1808 : Which they haven´t developed yet, still a much higher hurdle than an engine upgrade. Don´t see why the same has to be true for a A330NEWO, as there
262 Post contains images Ab345 : Joining the discussion after a big break I have a feeling that Airbus will go ahead with some version of an improved A330 and the A358 will be re-laun
263 XT6Wagon : It wasn't a new wing, it was winglets instead of raked winglets. at this point the idea of a 783 is waiting on the 777x and its folding wingtips. The
264 rotating14 : By the time the first 787's would need replacing I'm almost certain that Boeing will have something in place to Keep 787 carriers on board so they do
265 tortugamon : I think there are a number of reasons here. First, I don't think the engines were available much before now. I think GE/RR have comfort with their pr
266 Stitch : The 787-3 and 787-8 had identical fuselages (with a bit less structure in the 787-3 due to lower operating weights) so it is already designed by defa
267 scbriml : You only need to look at how many A330s Airbus has sold since the 787 launched for the answer.
268 Revelation : Add resale value to the argument too - the longer ranged a/c will have a larger pool of second hand buyers. I agree with your conclusion, but it's an
269 Post contains links Devilfish : I believe I already acknowledged that in an exchange three weeks ago in another thread..... Why No 767 NEO Is Offered? (by An225 Mar 17 2014 in Civil
270 tommy1808 : Time is hardly a problem, as they have to wait years for the engine. Developing a wing to EIS within 5 years seems not like miracle work. Because it
271 Post contains images Millenium : Wasn't the 787-3 wing just a wing clipped version of the 787 wing? eg. compared to the standard 787 wing not high aspect ratio and way to heavy for s
272 tortugamon : If they wait for the 2020 Advance that is. I am not so sure that is the ideal route because they would largely lose the availability advantage and I
273 Stitch : I wonder if that decision was really driven by need, or by the market pushing Airbus to make the A350 as "cool" as the 787.
274 seahawk : Talking of "need" I see only one "need" for an A330NEO and that is that the A350 line is limited to 14 planes a months. 140 planes a year is not enoug
275 tommy1808 : I am not talking about smaller and thinner, i mean over-all smaller. Like an A310 wing stretched to 52m span. Even with the same level of 80´s techn
276 panais : So as you put it, the incentive for Airbus is 5 A330NEOs per year or 3 maybe 4 A330CEOs per year. Not much of an benefit there either for airlines or
277 seahawk : 50-60 jets are year is better than being limited to 35% market share, considering that Boeing will be doing 168 787s and ~ 100 777 by 2020 and beyond,
278 KarelXWB : The availability advantage would last for only two years anyway. That's 500 to 600 A330s for the next 10 years, not a small figure either.
279 panais : A few CEOs is about 36-48 planes per year, not that much different from 50-60 with the NEO investment. That depends on how powerfull the engine will
280 seahawk : I do not think CEO can go with 36-48 planes until 2030 and beyond. While a A330NEO could use the engine of a A380NEO too. So the engine investment wou
281 panais : I do not think that the A330NEO at 5-6 planes per month is actually going to enable Airbus to compete with the B787 with two final assembly lines. An
282 EnviableOne : The issue is with CEO the orders will drop off by about 2021/2 with NEO you can push that out to 2025 so an extra plane a month until 2022 and 3 year
283 Post contains links seahawk : Due to the limitations in the supply chain (wings) Airbus is limited to 14 A350s a months. So if they want to built more 2 engine widebodies, they ei
284 panais : Agree. I believe wings design and manufacturing is an Airbus expertise and capability, very minimal dependency on non Airbus vendors, so this is real
285 KarelXWB : It does not have to compete on a 1 to 1 basis. The demand in this segment should be large enough, in such case the A330neo could take its share. >
286 Stitch : A decade ago the A330 production rate was around 60 frames a year (per an Airbus press release from 2013) and at the time they were not also producin
287 Post contains images KarelXWB : The goal is 14 per month. Basically, the 787 line will have to serve both 200-300 and 300-400 seat markets and even if we split the rate nicely betwe
288 seahawk : I just wanted to point out that production capacity for a A358 is missing. Every A358 sold and built is a A359/A351 not built. Every A330NEO sold and
289 KarelXWB : I see. Fully agreed.
290 astuteman : An excellent summation IMO Stitch. That's exactly what I think they'll end up doing. Just enough to make it work in the market (a bit like the extra
291 Post contains links tortugamon : Airchive has done an analysis of the DL RFP for a 767 and 747 replacement and they have settled on the A330neo and the 77W as the likely choices. They
292 Post contains images lightsaber : Add myself to the agreement that the 787 line shall not be able to meet demand for its size segments. Nice link. Thank you. Concur. But if Airbus is
293 seahawk : With the NEO they have a chance, without the NEO they are set at 154-168 planes compared to 286-312 (787+777) for Boeing. While most forecasts predic
294 tortugamon : I think this is an excellent point. I personally don't see Boeing chasing too many 787 orders (especially for the 788) so that they can try to keep m
295 Revelation : I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, but it sounds like you're suggesting Airbus would commit to spend hundreds of millions of dollars just to
296 art : Various analyses of WB demand and production for A330 + A350 + B787 + B777 conclude that there will be a production shortfall. Will there be some comb
297 Stitch : By "cool" I was referring to how the market became somewhat infatuated with the 787's technologies and materials - what Richard Aboulafia referred to
298 KarelXWB : Shame they always use the default OEM cabin configurations. It feels a bit like comparing apples with bananas. Or they just stick with 40%. I think A
299 JerseyFlyer : The CIT article referenced above makes a strong point that some cannibalisation of A350 orders would be a good thing for Airbus: "Airbus might convinc
300 Post contains images lightsaber : We are in agreement. But perhaps Airbus will do more with the wings (a la Embraer with the E-jets) that move the plane into a more competitive advant
301 RickNRoll : A part of that number is intentional. Airbus is managing the risk of over investing in infrastructure. With the economy still unstable, orders could
302 EnviableOne : as an when the new 330 based belugas come online, they may be able to increase production as they will have more capacity to move wings out of brought
303 mjoelnir : I think it a misconception that making a A330neo will erase the the cost difference between Airbus producing a A330 and Boeing producing a B787, or br
304 lightsaber : Or Boeing writes it off and takes a hit to the stock price... Unlikely, but a hit Boeing could afford that they will try to avoid taking. I think Boe
305 frmrcapcadet : The astounding thing in the Airchive analysis is that the current 777-300ER model can be competitive with the largest 350. And that the 747-400 is onl
306 seabosdca : As KarelXWB pointed out this is only true in terms of direct operating cost if you configure the 777-300ER more densely than the A350-1000. (With tha
307 Post contains images scbriml : As others have pointed out, the comparison is not accurate. If the 77W really could compete with the A351, Boeing would not be spending billions on t
308 frmrcapcadet : Indeed in the long term the 777-300ER is not competitive with the 350-10, but it can be (emphasis on 'can be') in the short term for a specific airlin
309 Post contains links tortugamon : Agreed. I too wish the seating was more intelligently derived. Some around here have maintained that Airbus is targeting 50% market share. Personally
310 astuteman : I'm with Lightsaber here. just like the a320NEO, any wing changes are things that Airbus can be getting on with from the start, including more extens
311 CrimsonChin : What's so "astounding" about it then? As if you replace 77W with A330 and A350 with 787 using the same short term, specific airline, given availabili
312 KarelXWB : Brazilian airline Azul is going to operate both A330 and A350 aircraft. Just like SAS and others, this is another example about how both aircraft fami
313 TheRedBaron : I hope they don't close this after I post Either airbus makes very small changes on its current offering and goes for price, parts, warranties and ava
314 Stitch : A huge benefit of the A330neo to Airbus is that it would leverage the existing A330 FAL in TLS so I cannot see them building it in the US (either at
315 EPA001 : That seems like the most plausible scenario. Still awaiting confirmation though from Airbus. It will be probably at or around the Farnborough Air Sho
316 Post contains images lightsaber : Rumor mill update: No real update actually. Just more talk on the nacelle quotes. Its driving me nuts that I don't *know* which engine is going forwar
317 art : I, too, think that Airbus can go down the low hanging fruit A330NEO route without risk of Boeing going for a 787 re-engine. Spending far more on big
318 parapente : Question. Rolls has recently completed a major PR push in Feb/March. They have shown a full sized mock up with 'real' carbon fiber/titanium fan and ca
319 seahawk : I would say it could be an a first step to built confidence in case Airbus and RR have set a ambitious EIS date.
320 panais : Maybe they did the promotion to increase awareness among airlines as Airbus is closing to a decision to select an engine for the NEO. This helps in t
321 aviaponcho : Maybe seing AirAsia X going GE for A330's is a clue that GE can be part of a NEO update ? Air Asia is mainly T700 on its current fleet ?
322 parapente : Reply 321 Good point indeed
323 TheRedBaron : One question. If they make airfoil ad geometry changes on the wing do they need to recertify the whole Aircraft (like a A350 flight program?). Thanks
324 Post contains images bigsmile : If an A330NEO was to happen the certification process would be the same as the A320NEO programme in my view
325 PM : I doubt if the two things are connected. Air Asia X selected GE for their (aborted) order for A330-200s long before the A330neo was mooted. Entirely,
326 OldAeroGuy : It's impossible to say until the extent of the changes are known and the Cert agencies have made up their minds.
327 Post contains links jetblueguy22 : As this thread has gotten long Part 7 has been created. It can be found here A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 7 (by jetblueguy22 Apr 28 2014 in Civi
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