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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41  
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 48464 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Due to length part 40 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 41:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
251 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineblueshamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 2904 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 48491 times:

Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

I have been using Stratfor to follow activity in the Indian Ocean to identify any movements connected to the SAR mission, but wondered if there are any alternatives.

Many thanks

Rgds



So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
User currently offlineGZed From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 43 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 48448 times:

Quoting B777fan (Reply 229):
Quoting GZed (Reply 213):Correct me if I'm wrong, but those drawings only represent the final ping from the engines.
Not bad but not quite right. Yes the last ping could have taken place anywhere on those two arcs. rcair1 has been publishing the collected info...


Thank you. I've read through rcair1's latest sanity check, so I'm up to speed on the facts.

SATCOM only received a ping once per hour after ACARS was turned off. That means that there were 7 pings received by the SATCOM system (hourly from 2:11am to 8:11am). Each of these pings will tell us the distance from the satellite at that moment, and its crucial information.

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.


User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 48233 times:

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

Why do they need to release it that would just cause more confusion than already exists...

The plane started out at the last radar contact as the sat pings showed and as time went on it went towards the last ping. With the known primary radar data the initial ping is basically exactly known as it is using secondary data. But every ping towards the last is going to just draw two huge wedges which I like to call a cake slice which isn't going to help at all as they tell you nothing about the flight path. The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane. The size of the last ping area covers every possible flight path from the start to the end.

Releasing a picture with two huge wedges is going to make people think that the plane could be somewhere inside the wedge when that is not true and only the last ping is relevant to the search.

Edit: Also if your subscribing to some crazy theories if the plane crossed into POR or AOR-E sat coverage it would have been seen as well.

[Edited 2014-03-20 21:44:26]

User currently online7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1549 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 48029 times:

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage -- it may help in determining what went on during the flight but that is for later, after we find the plane and the black boxes.


User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2212 posts, RR: 56
Reply 5, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47760 times:

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Given it appears that it was at most 2 minute between signoff and the transponder going dark I cannot imagine a situation where you would turn off the transponder that quickly from a normal flight situation.

This line of thinking is too cockpit-centric. There are avionics boxes and wiring harnesses running all over the aircraft, and the root cause of the transponder going dark may not necessarily be found in the cockpit. It's a complex system, and it may fail in non-obvious ways. Besides, 2 minutes is a long time for an oxygen-accelerated fire to develop, such as was observed in the Cairo 777 fire.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
This would kill the autopilot as well if memory serves right. (or at least the ability to fly between waypoints).

It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Every mechanical theory falls apart once you add the timeline into it.

I'm not sure we can be that categorical just yet. For this very reason, I think search and recovery of the wreckage will be an intense multi-year effort of the same magnitude as AF 447.


User currently offline65mustang From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 84 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47666 times:

I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.

User currently offlinercair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1317 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47356 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):
The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage

I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1



rcair1
User currently offlinerj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1809 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47352 times:

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances

As I was saying toward the end of the last part, he believes the plane LANDED in Pakistan, and he won't say who hus sources are because something about the witness protection program. I seriously doubt this guy's credibility.


User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47325 times:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 5):
It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Reply 10, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 47297 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Good morning ladies and gents,

There are two additional points that the moderators would like to bring to your attention please.

*** Some members may not be aware of the fact that all members have an edit window of 60 minutes, from the time you first make a post in which to add or remove any additional comments or information into/from the post. Please make use of this feature made available to you, for your own convenience, instead of posting one post after another.

*** Also keep in mind that this is a discussion forum and not a chat room. If you would like to chat about this incident, kindly make use of the "Live Chat" option, which is available in the "forum drop-down menu". Messages of agreement such as "ME TOO", "I AGREE WITH X", ”YES” OR ”NO” have been found to waste time and space and are therefore to be avoided. A message consisting of only one or two lines of text is probably not worth posting. Do not make posts that contain only a smiley face, check mark, etc. Make sure the content of your post is relevant to the topic.


Thanks for your time and co-operation,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 46800 times:

I just read in an online manual at Smartcockpit, that turning off the IFE also turns off the surveillance cameras, including the cockpit entry camera system.

Just wondering about that in relation to a hijacker turning off the IFE to prevent the pax from seeing the moving map display.

Seems like they'd want those cameras working.


User currently offlineGZed From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 43 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 46724 times:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 3):
The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane.

That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.


User currently offlinercair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1317 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 46497 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT

I just watched a short interview of the Senior VP (Chris Mclaughlin) from Inmarsat. He was knowledgeable, informative and very careful to talk only about what he knew. The interviewer kept trying to get him to comment on various things he would not know about - to try to get some 'soundbyte' He handled it very well - sticking to the facts he knew and deflecting ones where he would not know (Could systems on the Boeing fail in a way that would cause....? - "I'm not an expert on those systems so I really cannot say)

He was very clear and quite good - gave you the sense of a company that was really doing the right thing.

He did identify the Inmarsat box as a "Classic Aero" set - which is consistent with the Inmarsat -3 network, not the more advanced and newer -4 network reported as being ordered on newer MH Boeing 737's.

He also said the 'network polls the aircraft' - so it sounds like the network initiates the communication and the aircraft responds. I believe this type of communication is most supportive of a 'time of flight' type distance measurement - but to be very clear - he did not discuss the technical details of how they determined the loci of possible locations.
It was clear, however, that this was something the had to 'noodle' on a develop - not something they had in the can. It took 2-3 days for them to figure it out.

In all - he was very credible and I do not believe this was somebody 'hiding' something - like "we know more about where the aircraft is than we are saying."

-rcair1



rcair1
User currently offlineGZed From Australia, joined Mar 2014, 43 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 46192 times:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 7):
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage
I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1

...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7886 posts, RR: 52
Reply 15, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 46214 times:

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 1):
Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

That is pretty hush hush. I doubt if that information is out on the web. You can have a general idea of which ships are out on deployment but the actual locations of them isn't thrown out there

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.

I get the impression it's one pompous loudmouth saying things to another pompous loudmouth and out comes his tweets. I'm sure the "insider" has been blabbing to the media as well, which is why FWF says things earlier than the media picks up with them, but excuse me if I'm skeptical of "insider sources." If anything, a.net has taught me to doubt rumors from these unnamed entities because they're often full of it



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineseb146 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 11586 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 45254 times:

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

If the last ping was 15,000 miles distance from the satellite, that is a lot of ground to cover! Not only that, but it *MAY* have gone farther than that.

My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.



Life in the wall is a drag.
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2389 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 45182 times:

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

It has happened in total loss of the controls, and so the pilots had to use the engines to control speed, and by extension, vertical speed in order to land. Sink rate too high? Apply more thrust!

The landing will be nerve-wrecking, though.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?

This is also taken care of. You don't have controlled flight anymore, but yes - you won't crash in the short and medium term.


David

[Edited 2014-03-20 22:52:49]


Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 45043 times:

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

Your not reading my statements. I said the last ping includes the first ping with the primary radar data (a point due to the radar data) and the fuel quantity which is obviously not embedded in an inmarsat keep alive message is used to determine the maximum possible locations along the large circle the last ping provides. (it is the exact opposite of completely untrue.)

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

The pings are not very accurate they do not tell you the flight path. The last ping arc includes the min/max possible flight paths to the area defined by the large circle. There is not enough accuracy to draw a flight path (it will just draw a big rounded wedge there is no other way). It would not prove how direct or indirect a path it took as it must have ended within the final arc for the signal to be recieved there. No matter the route's actual it got to the endpoint somehow. If it did crazy circles and then did a b-line to the minimum point that is possible but it would still be hard to tell exactly what was happening as without primary radar data the estimates are not accurate.

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.

You do not seem to understand what the ping's provide. The last ping makes a definite bound on where the plane could be. If you made a path so insane and non-linear and outside the big fat rounded cake slice there would be no way to reach the known last ping. (You would run out of fuel before you could reach the area defined by the arcs, and that would be a non-real result as we know it did reach the circle defined by the last ping)

The plane must have ended in the large circle if you took an insane route you would run out of jet-a before you reached the circle there is no other way around it. The other pings would only draw a big wedge (Which we could easily) with rounded edges so that it fully defines every path to the end circle. There is a hard limit on how far the plane could deviate off a purely linear path and still end in the final ping area. (The sat ping's resolution is horrible so it would not tell you if the plane turned or not it would just say it was in this huge area or not, and if it did cross the circles back and forth it would have to end up near the slowest/shortest linear path area which is furthest away from the conspiracy theories)

Quoting GZed (Reply 14):
...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.

It tells you the plane could be here. The early pings won't provide the resolution to be able to easily exclude parts of the arc. The fuel load narrows down the flight path and the linear assumption is a fairly reasonable one in that all your stating is that if the plane didn't fly linearly the short close paths are the most probable areas. (These would end in populated areas with radar coverage)

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:17]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:35]

Basically to reach the furthest point it must have traveled in a mostly linear path and for a close point it could have travelled increasingly convoluted paths except that there isn't much resolution to the sat distance measure as the system was never intended to do this type of measurement so it would be difficult to resolve.


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:09:14]

I also watched the inmarsat interview and got this bit out of them (it was inmarsat that built the estimate so they obviously know where each ping is)(Inmarsat (sun/mon) used sat signal from network diagnostics. (Basic sum) arcs by tuesday.)

By assumption which may or may not be correct is that to build the estimate for the last position they used the previous pings to build confidence and refine the final estimate which means they would have already checked to see if it was doing strange and massive non-linear deviations so large that the sat could see that.

Interview is here, http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-help-find-malaysia-airliner


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:31:27]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:34:24]

User currently offlineNotAPilotYet From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 14 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 45060 times:

Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy


User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 44823 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?


User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3881 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 44727 times:

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy

It has happen before that pilots have comitted suicide and taking pasengers with them. This has happend more than once too. It's a fact that we can't look away from.


User currently offlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17029 posts, RR: 67
Reply 22, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 44718 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

(Most) planes are designed to be stable in pitch so this would work, but only in pitch.

It would not work for roll in most aircraft. Most planes are not stable in roll once you get past a certain angle. If you put a light plane into a 45 degree bank, it would keep banking until it ended up in a spiral descent.

In swept wing airliners, the designers strike a balance between Dutch Roll and Spiral Divergence. More of one means less of the other and vice versa. Dutch Roll is countered with yaw dampers but Spiral Divergence is not really a worry because it is easily countered by pilot or autopilot inputs. So the plane can diverge. If it couldn't diverge it would be too stable for easy maneuver.

However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

If we assume the last control inputs left the plane straight and level, the control system would keep it stable until the fuel ran out or until it hit something.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

Most aircraft are both statically and dynamically stable in pitch, meaning pitch oscillations will damp out automatically. This is typically demonstrated in the first flying lesson you ever take. The instructor will pull back on the yoke and let go, then sit back and wait while the plane stabilizes.

If the plane is mis-trimmed it will start climbing or descending, but oscillations will still be damped out.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:38]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:01:22]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:30]


"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlinelucaspithan From Brazil, joined Feb 2010, 34 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 44644 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 16):
My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.

This answer lots of things. For me is clear that the plane did not enter the air space of China, India and Pakistan. These countries owns efficient security systems and (especially India and Pakistan) they are in permanent alert due to historical disputes.

I can't imagine a triple seven going in their air space without being noticed unless it was flying very low, what would require a very skillful pilot and a very lucky day for him.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7886 posts, RR: 52
Reply 24, posted (5 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 44538 times:

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):

Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me  

Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence to say it wasn't a suicide



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
25 flyingturtle : I can't think of an example where this happened for hours, because... pilots want to fly the plane. But phugoid cycles are taught to any student pilo
26 Starlionblue : Actually the oscillations would tend to damp out given dynamic longitudinal stability. But of course if the cycle is big, say two thousand meters fro
27 AR385 : It also has assymetric thrust automatic compensation, so, when it ran out of fuel and if one engine cut earlier than the other, it would have still h
28 flyingturtle : Thank you for giving a much more precise answer! I didn't know it the oscillations would automatically dampen, but now I thought about it again... Da
29 Post contains links antskip : A fleet of Chinese ships are on their way south to the suspected debris area, including the rescue ships Haixun 01 and 31 and Nanhaijiu 101 and 115. T
30 Post contains images Starlionblue : No worries. The EASA ATPL syllabus covers this stuff in mind-numbing detail. Glad it is coming to some sort of use!
31 LTC8K6 : Thanks. I knew that commercial airliners are required to be stable. But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by
32 tomlee : The core of the flight control system would probably/hopefully be the last thing to fail on a fly by wire plane as without it you can't really fly th
33 spacecadet : This is not true. The few times this has actually happened in the history of airliners (total loss of control due to hydraulic problems), the planes
34 nm2582 : I'm going to ask a slightly absurd question so that I can understand what you're trying to communicate. I'm not a pilot - but I understand the theori
35 NotAPilotYet : Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence t
36 jelliesR : Let me ask a question, if he had flown the plane into the home of the president of Malaysia, would you consider it "suicide"? no. Right? Now let me a
37 7BOEING7 : B******T -- The 777 (or most any airplane) will end up in the ground if you take your hands off the yoke no matter how well it's trimmed before you l
38 NotAPilotYet : The psychological aspect for political reasons is something I can't dismiss - I don't know Malaysia. But from a suicide sense, it doesn't jibe. What
39 YoungMans : If the 24 m & 5 m parts now being searched for are in fact off MH370, this question is completely irrelevant. If they are not, then it may be a d
40 AR385 : If this scenario is true. Then you also need to provide at the very least a conjecture of where the missing 777 is. Because if somebody went to the t
41 Finn350 : There are three main theories: 1. Suicide 2. Hijacking 3. Mechanical failure (or fire etc.) The suicide theory is by far the simplest available theor
42 Post contains links 65mustang : With referencing the map posted by wxmedller in part 38 post 233, does anyone think that the NTSB based the gradual course to the right (as the plane
43 aviators99 : In theory, yes! But that would be a new level of criminal mastery that's been heretofore unheard of in all of history, as it would be an incredible a
44 davidzill : So what's up with ACARS at this point, what do we know, and how does that pertain to where the investigation and search goes for now and how does it e
45 Post contains links flightshadow : I think that in the case of UA 232, the increasing rate of descent on short final which caused Denny Fitch to increase engine power just prior to lan
46 tomlee : If you goto that little link in the edits with the interview it is highly improbable that someone spoofed a inmarsat modem. You would have to fake th
47 Finn350 : It might be a partial explanation. However, if it were a pure Coriolis effect the earth rotates 15 degrees (24 x 15 = 360) every hour under the plane
48 NotAPilotYet : I understand that - and it makes sense from an engineering point. It just doesn't make sense from a psych point. Before I;m skewered here, let me typ
49 Shmendr : A question about landing in Antarctica. Assuming that MH370 will be found in the south Indian Ocean, it seems to me this will be the closest commercia
50 mandala499 : ALL the pings are important (but yes, the last ping is the most important). Each ping means a distance from the satellite to the earth's surface... o
51 aviators99 : I can't reconcile these two statements. Are you sure you're an expert in suicide?
52 YoungMans : The truth is I have no idea where the plane is; so far, no-one else has either. The closest I come to airliners is when I buy a ticket from the trave
53 Post contains links and images flood : Perhaps a misunderstanding. We're placing "suicide" under a rather big umbrella with the key point being that it would involve deliberate pilot actio
54 tomlee : Well if your going to say the north west "theories" the plane must have taken a direct path to the very end of the arc otherwise it wouldn't have the
55 mandala499 : Inmarsat has been hacked before. Inmarsat satellite terminal spoofing has been done before. As someone who has worked with them before, I know this f
56 NotAPilotYet : I'm a psychologist, which seems to be much loathed around here. I'm obviously not a suicide expert, given that I'm still alive. At least I wasn't the
57 Post contains links tomlee : Please link that in I'd love to see how they did that. (free global internet) Well maybe the interview was wrong but he (Chris McLaughlin, Senior Vic
58 Starlionblue : Assuming the fuel is burned evenly in left and right wings, the CoG may slowly shift as fuel is burned. However this would be slow since all the tank
59 aviators99 : Okay, then you do have some expertise in the area. You've never encountered someone committing suicide in a place they love--a place they've spent th
60 Mir : For a short time, yes. Not for hours. Too many outside influences that would need some sort of corrective action either on the part of the pilots or
61 Post contains links 320tech : The distance is well outside any reasonable interception range, no closer than 1,000 mi, from the reports I've seen. According to Wikipedia, the ferr
62 Post contains links YoungMans : At this time of year, at the beginning of the Antarctic winter, it is possible to land an aircraft on areas of so-called 'Blue Ice', i.e. plateau ice
63 BackSeater : Thank you for your support. For days. I have asked about them together with their error margins and maybe experimental calibration data using targets
64 NotAPilotYet : I have - I know what suicide looks like from the living end. And I'm not - really not, trying to use my holy frelling knowledge to apply to this. I'm
65 tomlee : All the pings are valuable in making the last ping more accurate and the only thing SAR requires and values. Inmarsat doesn't have fixed error margin
66 InsideMan : If you have dealt with suicidal patients before, maybe you can shed some light on the things that bother me about the suicide theory.... 1) Why would
67 liquidair : have you seen or heard anything more regarding the crew or possible theories surrounding the disappearance? I got the impression you were starting to
68 seahawk : I think as long as nobody has found the plane it is pointless to speculate on motives for suicide, hijacking or whatever.
69 garpd : In NotAPilotYet's defence: 1 - Not always true. People commit suicide in hidden, secluded areas all the time 2 - Some times if your mind is made up o
70 Stabilator : Far fetched to you maybe. But suicide is not rational. I was not in a rational state of mind when I was planning my own death. You can't for certain
71 mandala499 : Please tell me where the SIM card is on an I-3 Aero equipment... He is not wrong but he is saying that to talk in layman's terms. It's much easier to
72 NotAPilotYet : Damn you guys are fast... Inside... I'm agreeing with you - I never argued that his was normal. I only asked how this could be normal if somene on th
73 mariner : That's a sweeping generalisation. Suicide can be entirely logical and rational. mariner
74 mandala499 : Yes, I have, but unfortunately it is not respectful to disclose such information at this time. So far I have found no information what would explain
75 garpd : You're welcome. I always try to say it as I see it. Suicide is just as valid a theory here as any other scenario. It is also no less likely too. If w
76 Post contains images NotAPilotYet : And of course you had to be from Scotland - you're lucky you cant hear my voice. I slip into a brogue when I'm tired - messes my students up Again, t
77 tomlee : Please provide a let me google that for you link. Already tried google fu. If you could provide the technical manuals and datasheets as isn't that ea
78 liquidair : interesting, that puts either in a position of motives for possibly partaking in this... Political for the pilot (assumed) something unknown (for now
79 InsideMan : thanks for sharing. It appears you're feeling better? I have to say I'm lucky I never wrestled with depression, but from a friends perspective I unde
80 Post contains images NotAPilotYet : You're right - that's what makes this infuriating. We don't know anything. I keep re-reading the sanity checks to make sure I understand everything (
81 lono : I have been trying to keep up with this post and my apologies if this question has been discussed. Has anyone from MH discussed the cargo load on this
82 garpd : Just a whole load of Mangosteens apparently.
83 LandSweetLand : That's about it really. The plane took off and didn't land when or where it was expected to.
84 tomlee : There is a summary post that has the info your looking for (its mostly unchanging and the cargo was discussed a while ago so you should be able to fi
85 NotAPilotYet : One is a statement and the other is a question. Otherwise, I can't find the appropriate smilie. And no, I never claimed to be a suicide expert. To be
86 iberiadc852 : Has anyone tried to check the supposed coincidences in the timing of SATCOM pings with the known route of SQ 68? Has this theory been dismissed in a f
87 Post contains images Unflug : You have expertise then, but are not an expert? You are distinctively different, most of the posters here are experts without any expertise [Edited 2
88 rheinwaldner : Assumed the plane flew straight with no turns and constant speed, it is very likely a rather simple mathematical job to determine nonambiguously whet
89 tomlee : Like I've said earlier and the summaries posted have as well. The satcom pings don't have a direct point unless there is secondary information to mak
90 Stabilator : I am better, thank you for asking. And I made some pretty in depth plans at the time, so IF pilot suicide is what happened, it wouldn't surprise me i
91 BackSeater : I have only been trying to emphasize that the last ping estimate is so critical to the overall investigative process that it should be verified, re-v
92 NotAPilotYet : I claimed to be an expert on people - sucked for me. But, in my defense, I'm better than the media - I'm willing to be wrong. I still don't buy the s
93 tomlee : It isn't a simple job the plane could have flown a 50deg, 45deg, 40deg track in any number of valid ways in both the north and south track. Inmarsat
94 Post contains links flood : For anyone interested, the daily press conference should be starting in a few minutes http://english.astroawani.com/
95 Post contains links tomlee : Scientists won't post their raw data onto a public general forum usually peer evaluation happens with actual experts in a more controlled fashion. I'
96 BackSeater : Not all GEO sats provide a crude distance. 3F1 does because it was not designed for that. Some GEO payloads are used extensively to measure RTD to wi
97 NotAPilotYet : I try to shine... for my first day here asking questions, not to bad. I've learned drift calculations, satellite imaging drifts, and planes in the mi
98 mandala499 : No? You do realize that we're talking about the same thing. The northwestern most point of the arc is the furthest the airplane can possibly go to al
99 iberiadc852 : I find it quite debatable. Aren't we talking about two similar routes in length?. Have you considered the winds in that route? What is the exact reas
100 cougar15 : A german´rag´(real nasty tabloid) is reporting there was 3 tons of Gold in the bellies, anyone heard this before or from a more reliable source?[Ed
101 tomlee : So you have a newer version (dated when?) still wouldn't mind that (I love obscure manuals). A configuration module which acts like a sim, talks a li
102 dragon-wings : CNN is reporting now that the search planes did not find anything on the second day of the search of the southern Indian ocean.
103 Post contains links tomlee : Strange haven't seen anything on AMSA's own site/twitter and they usually are just as fast or faster. Not to mention aren't they on the third day of
104 dragon-wings : I thought they ment the second day of searching with planes.
105 mika : What is the latest regarding this? Has it been concluded that there was nothing to be found in the area that was brought up yesterday? Pardon my lazin
106 Post contains links tomlee : http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/inciden...-03-18/20120928adf8252964_231a.jpg Just noticed they are still running windows xp on the noise blurred out comp
107 LandSweetLand : Don't start the conspiracy theorists off with that now. Or we'll be seeing theories of someone using LiPos in their phone etc to That photo is about
108 tomlee : True. Should be more careful with my wording. Oh that is good, hopefully, I have some clients who's IT departments have no plans to move forward even
109 capri : Forget about Gold, how about Uranium as some people suggested from the very first beginning
110 tomlee : I don't think they mentioned that either and hiding uranium isn't that easy either it also weighs quite a lot (basically as much as gold). Hiding it
111 YoungMans : These seven 'pings', or just one, are confusing .... Is it correct to assume that: The satellite wouldn't know whether the 'ping' comes from the airc
112 capri : don't forget also that Malaysia was highlighted as illegal arms deals transit point, someone as was suggested didn't want some shipments to be caught
113 tomlee : If the plane was stationary for all seven pings it would result in a totally differnt arc estimate which would look very unusual and would be a lot s
114 tomlee : We don't need to be making the theories in the first place. Smuggling by sea is far more effective and can provide better results with less risk, les
115 chaseus1 : I think the other earlier pings are important because they can show if the routing was consistent. Simple geometry could show possible general routes
116 enobar : A quick scan of wiki says that PC3 Orion's aren't capable of aerial refuelling but are the P8's? If so I'm kind of surprised that the RAAF haven't dec
117 cand : I hope they used the data form all pings and it confirms the north/south current assumption. It should look like: 45deg at 1:11, 50deg at 2:11, and n
118 kevinkevin : I can definitely make out the Malaysian logo on one of those pictures from the Satellite. I expected better quality pictures than that from a satellit
119 tomlee : I think in my opinion that the smart people at inmarsat who where the first ones to develop this method with the NTSB which already narrowed the sear
120 garpd : What satellite image? I see lots of references to them, but no links.
121 Post contains links tomlee : It is really simple the plane likely crashed into the ocean after running out of fuel. (Adding on an objective, motive, purpose is basically pointles
122 Post contains links LTC8K6 : They have been linked to numerous times. But if you are expecting to see a MH logo, I think you'll be disappointed. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BjJxq
123 BackSeater : Really??? based on what? Ah Ah! Now I get it. The demonstration that it is not stationary is because the "running assumption" is that it flew for 7 h
124 mika : I personally, as a complete layman i grant that, can't even say that it is an actual object. I would name those images "possible objects possibly rel
125 tomlee : No it still got to that ping area which is very far how exactly do you get there without flying there. This is why having it stationary would have re
126 Post contains links flood : "Engineers at Inmarsat Plc (ISAT), whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. (BA) 777-200ER on March 8, Chris M
127 Post contains links NAV30 : One can usually trust the Melbourne Age at least to move things back towards some sort of normality. I said a few days ago that I couldn't readily env
128 tomlee : I think your misquoting me a bit, that isn't my quote and the I must have broke the quote block on an edit I think. I don't see anything either but t
129 Mir : From earlier in the thread (probably a different number), the P8's have the necessary plumbing, but are not certified to do so. -Mir
130 garpd : Ah those ones! Sorry, I see nothing remotely resembling a logo on those images. I stared at them for an hour or so through the day when released. I t
131 liquidair : erm, I'm not sure i get it... The only possible way the plane could have flown over the equator is if it headed south.... so why not exclude the nort
132 rebr : The article states "flew steadily away", they didn't say it crossed the equator
133 tomlee : Thank you, as I have been saying on repeat for ever they used all the data and they basically debunked a good bulk of the conspiracy theories about s
134 mika : My appologies, it wasn't my intention!
135 tomlee : No problem. I should have caught the broken quote block within the edit window. We will have to wait and see for the AMSA search they didn't find any
136 liquidair : sorry, there words used are confusing- the over the equator part could refer to either the plane or the satellite. however, knowing that the satellit
137 P51Tang : My first post: And here's my take on MH370. 1/ Suicide Theory: Not a winner here,as the pilots were avid enthusiasts with immense pride and thrived on
138 imagoagnitio : My thinking as well.
139 David L : The satellite is "over the equator". Perhaps that's what they meant. Edit: Ah, too slow![Edited 2014-03-21 04:59:35]
140 Post contains links Mouldypete : To issue the satellite angular calculations for the other pings would do no harm IMO. The Inmarsat/NTSB collaboration discussed above seems very like
141 shortstack81 : If you want to see Malaysia Airlines's logo in those images, you will. Many people experienced this going through the Tomnod images, and people experi
142 Post contains links tomlee : International agencies actually found no link for the two stolen passport holders from terrorism/hijacking related concerns. It seems like it was jus
143 Post contains links imatams : The images released by AMSA give to images for both the object under investigation. One is panchromatic, the other 'multispectral' -'Multispectral' me
144 cand : So something like an explosion in the cockpit takes out the transponder, ACARS and radios and de-pressurizes the plane. Boeing should feel quite guil
145 BackSeater : I really don't subscribe to any conspiracy theory and have nothing to prove. I just notice that you seem to be the only one fighting tooth and nails
146 tomlee : See news article posted by flood. Many theories are dead. The end. How about we talk about ELT modifications and the current search efforts in the so
147 NAV30 : If you look at a map of Malaya, cand, you'll see that the central airports are all at pretty high altitudes, surrounded by mountains, whereas the mor
148 Kaiarahi : They're designed for it, but it's not yet operational.
149 dc9northwest : I think he means NW afterwards, when they were over the Strait of Malacca.
150 DTW2HYD : One has to analyze all ping locations to get a holistic view. Each ping has a different margin of error because of atmospheric conditions at that poin
151 Post contains images Kaiarahi : Hard to imagine an airport that isn't at ground level
152 Post contains links Mouldypete : I do not understand. Inmarsat have been most careful to explain that the calculations based on the pings can only indicate the angle between the geos
153 shortstack81 : The word choice is poor. The Satellite is stationary over the equator. The sentence really should read "The airplane, while pinging, flew steadily aw
154 tomlee : The sat is over the equator and what they are saying is that the plane moved away from the sat consistently until the pings stopped. 1) The sat only
155 DTWPurserBoy : I have not had the time to read what has to be the longest continuing thred in a.net history. But I was wondering if MH had tried to call the plane wi
156 NAV30 : You could well be right, dc9northwest. But my basic point is that, by that time, most of the human beings on the aeroplane may very well have been de
157 tomlee : Just wondering do planes have air quality sensors (CO, CO2, O2, RH%, Temp, Pressure) The last three I'm sure they monitor but the first three are les
158 BackSeater : Thank you the link to the Boomberg article. Inmarsat is starting to comment and that's good. I assume that the plane got steadily away from 3F1 only
159 bueb0g : 777 FBW roll control is essentially direct, so it doesn't maintain a bank angle like the 787 or the Airbus FBW a/c. It behaves like a cable driven cr
160 Post contains images jox : I fully agree with those of you that claims that all SATCOM pings are interesting. But I wonder if we actually have them here in this image (from Repl
161 tomlee : Inmarsat provided a press release before the sat information was confirmed which was carefully worded as to not even say that the pings lead anywhere
162 lnglive1011yyz : The image you quoted made me think.. Apart from the fact that they knew there were 2 possible tracks the plane could have gone, why would we be searc
163 BackSeater : Straight to the South Pole? Can stupid coordinates be entered into a FMS? Just a thought: What puzzles me is that if you extrapolate a direct track fr
164 wingz : If we assume pilot, or autopilot heading, input stops, then from replies earlier in this thread it seems clear we fall back on the FBW to maintain dir
165 tomlee : They are also doing searches in the north and trying to get radar data analysed but that too takes time and it is probably logical to just go in para
166 Mouldypete : Sorry but I'm still not understanding. The last known radar position of the a/c is "roughly" 700 miles north of the equator. The track postulated by
167 tomlee : They already stated to the media that it moved consistently outward and if it was doing circles the final ping would be far closer to the top of the
168 asetiadi : Let's say this is not a pilot suicide / hijack attempt. Is there any possibility things like improper take off configuration, missed steps, anything t
169 jox : If you look at the positions in the map I linked above, the positions agree with: * Gradually moved away from the Satellite * Constant speed * Straigh
170 tomlee : Not quite sure if the plane could travel that far at sea/ground level (planes don't really fly that low).
171 zeke : I do not believe that to be the case, I have not seen them say the calculations were angle based, I actuality understood it to be time of flight base
172 GZed : Thanks for reposting that. I have not seen this image before. It is in fact exactly what we've been talking about, and hoping to see. It also explain
173 jox : My understanding is that Inmarsat has said 2 things. a) It is "angle based" only to that extent that it is only ONE of their satellites that has pick
174 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Inmarsat seems certain that the plane is in the Southern Indian Ocean. Inmarsat, the maker of satellites, told ABC News that they had an "initial idea
175 tomlee : It actually was posted before in earlier threads. And as stated before it doesn't change the end area and does just draw a wedge (Which the NTSB narr
176 hivue : The IOR satellite coverage actually is overlapped by one of the POR's coverage to the east and one of the AOR's coverage to the west. The fact that t
177 GZed : I have spoken with someone who has seen high quality images that show the so called "debris field" much more clearly than the images released. The im
178 tomlee : The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can pro
179 Post contains links PanAmPaul : i'm sure a lot of what's in this article is known to folks here but I found an interesting look on fight data recorders and learned a bit more about t
180 GZed : I suspect my contact was not referring to the actual Digital Globe images, but instead has seen higher quality versions of the same area at the same
181 hivue : Thanks. That would tend to suggest the plane was purposely flown south rather than just being some sort of ghost flight with everyone on board uncons
182 nupogodi : Hey guys: reality check time. The dotted red arcs in that image are not from published INMARSAT data. They are assumptions by whichever organization
183 tomlee : It is usually pretty easy to work backwards from an answer once someone gives you the solved solution and a number of hints. So not really the raw da
184 DTW2HYD : Actually DigitalGlobe is allowed to take images above commercial grade resolution, but can sell those only to US Military, 50cm is the cutoff. They h
185 LTC8K6 : If it was a hijack/suicide, and things were deliberately turned off, it could be that the DFDR was disabled. The speculated fire that took out the co
186 tomlee : Technically they are only really being capped by regulation and that is probably going to move with international competition. They still are not car
187 Razza74 : Going to try and get up near to RAAF Pearce this weekend with RAAF, RNZAF and JSDF Orions, not something you would see everyday here in Perth
188 nupogodi : You can hand-wave away the fact that you have to make a lot of assumptions to generate that data, but it doesn't make it any more accurate.
189 GZed : If you look down the left hand side of the image re-posted recently (the one with the ping rings) you'll see the description of why the southern rout
190 tomlee : Not sure where I said it was accurate just representative. And the estimated end area the NTSB provides is just that an estimate. That too may not be
191 rcair1 : A color camera can also be considered multispectral. There are 2 images - panchromatic which means it has no spectral information other than what the
192 Post contains images GZed : Are you talking about this image rcair1? This one seems to show the earlier pings:
193 nupogodi : It does not. It *seems* to show them, but indeed it does not. That is where the pings "would have to have been" to generate the track that the NTSB d
194 LTC8K6 : Would this match be with the 1:11 ping? Seems like Inmarsat has reason to be certain of where 9M-MRO went. Even early in the flight.[Edited 2014-03-2
195 Post contains images airbazar : If it's top secret, we'll never know exactly what it is that they have or don't have
196 Finn350 : As explained before and on the legend of the image: "Satellite ping distance arcs" / "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks". The author show
197 hivue : Those "earlier pings" on the map are labeled "Example based on NTSB high probability tracks." They're examples, not real ping data.
198 nupogodi : We do, an Inmarsat employee said on the record that they plotted 7 of the pings for investigators. It was in a news article quoted somewhere upthread
199 GZed : I see. Well that's ridiculous. Why even include them if they are just made up lines based on the theory of straight line flight?
200 nupogodi : To give people a visual example of how the final data was calculated. As evidenced in this thread, many people have difficulties understanding what t
201 tomlee : Strange why do we know about the obviously NRO military 10cm resolving cameras which DigitalGlobe doesn't have. I'm sure there is some super secret s
202 jox : But surely NTSB has access to all the real data from Inmarsat. Which makes them more than just an "example". Since we don't actually know where the p
203 Post contains links Finn350 : This seems to be the best source, Fox interview of an Inmarsat Senior Vice President quoted earlier: http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-he
204 jox : No, but it is "Based on NTSB high probability tracks" - which was my point.
205 LTC8K6 : Inmarsat apparently matched the first two pings with ACARS and primary radar data as a calibration and validation. They would have been the 1:11 and 2
206 Post contains links nupogodi : Here, Bloomberg does: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...over-ocean-inmarsat-estimates.html There was confusion about "over the equator" in this
207 GZed : Why do you keep suggesting that deviations from straight flight are not possible because it would result in the plane not having enough fuel to make
208 LTC8K6 : There was a 1:07 ACARS gps position to be matched with a 1:11 ping, and a 2:15 primary radar position to be matched with a 2:11 ping, I think.
209 zeke : SITA have defined coverage maps for the ACARS network, the on aircraft system takes the aircrafts current position from the IRS and that determines f
210 Mouldypete : Presumably the 1:11am ping back correlated to the 1:07 ACARS message giving location, heading, speed etc. travelling on the correct track to PEK and
211 Post contains links Finn350 : Thanks, that nails it down. There are 7 plots. I found also a Daily Telegraph article, that clearly talks about the timing of the signals, suggesting
212 nupogodi : I agree. Technically they could have flown in circles for hours and then intersected the 0811L arc fairly close to Malaysia. But this does not agree
213 hivue : 7 pings, one per hour (on average) I believe. No 8th ping. He concludes from that that the plane flew for 7+ hours and then ran out of fuel. That may
214 cand : Indeed, I meant the subsequent turns at VAMPI and at (or after) IGREX to some north or south destination. If a/p was flying the plane, it was blindly
215 tomlee : The entire red line uses a basically direct flight assumption just one at the minimum speed and another at the maximum speed. If you make a significa
216 Finn350 : Yes, that is what I meant. I corrected my reply.
217 hivue : The SATCOM communications box never lost its supply of power and was never actively turned off (breaker pulled).
218 cand : So there was no malfunction at IGARI.
219 DTWPurserBoy : Since it appears that the current is basically eastward, I would expect some debris to start to wash ashore before too much longer. I cannot believe t
220 mandala499 : Can someone explain to me what this means? As far as I know a stationary object would result in the same ping timelag because the distance between th
221 jox : If we assume that there actually are some debris at the place they currently are searching at, I would say it takes at least 5-7 weeks until the curr
222 tomlee : No your misreading my posting, a stationary object would not consistently move away from the sat so the pings including the end ping would not match
223 hivue : Constrained to two arcs by the fact that adjacent, overlapping Inmarsat satellites for whatever reason did not pick up the last "ping" (and possibly
224 rj777 : What I would like to know, is any of these search aircraft capable of being supported by an aircraft carrier? If so, that would go a long way towards
225 hivue : Someone remind me how we know this. The last ping is all the data that has been released publically. Did the Inmarsat guy say in the interview that t
226 qualitydr : (Putting on my math modeling hat...) Indeed, it's a fairly simple algorithm to wring information from successive ping-rings, assuming the plane flew
227 Post contains links tomlee : "Engineers at Inmarsat Plc, whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co. 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a
228 mandala499 : OK, sorry, your explanation above seems so far away from: Both of what I quoted cannot be correct. Which one is correct? Reply 125 or Reply 222? Did I
229 DTWPurserBoy : Not feasable. A P-8 is a 737-800 and a P-3 is a Lockheed Electra. C-130's are huge turboprops. None can land on a carrier deck.
230 liquidair : Actually, the reality is that we simply don't know- and to state otherwise is actually IMO irresponsible. Whilst that may be the most probable outcom
231 tomlee : A stationary object would result in stationary pings (different pings, than what know to be real) Do you understand what I mean by different (not dif
232 nupogodi : What we do know is its ground speed (not airspeed) from the satellite, heavily averaged of course because of the 1hr period of the pings. If this spe
233 mandala499 : This is one of those cases where yes, we simply don't know. To pass them off as already dead, is irresponsible. At the same time, if we already know
234 tomlee : The SAR search looking for potential survivors in the water even after weeks is responsible. Looking for airports and landing strips is not responsib
235 photolppt : But they sure as hell tried to make the C-130 a carrier based airplane... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar-poc38C84
236 spacecadet : He's just saying that the plane hadn't landed and was still sending out pings, which is one of the theories people have put forth here - that it was
237 hivue : Sorry. Missed that somehow. Thanks. I will cast my lot with those who say that it is possible the plane could have been stationary on the ground (or
238 hivue : Agreed. After 2 weeks MH370's silence has become deafening. It suggests to me the silence at the bottom of the ocean.
239 davidzill : I believe 370 is committed to the depths of the sea in an ocean where depths can reach over 5 miles.
240 tomlee : As sad as it might be that is the likely/probable situation. I just hope they can find something soon so the process both regulatory and emotionally
241 solarflyer22 : So, I'm a little confused by the technical arguments here despite knowing a fair amount about satellites and orbits. In the first 6 pings, does it ac
242 Post contains links 747megatop : The closest are EP-3E ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EP-3E ) and E2 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-2_Hawkeye). Not sure though if these aircraft can
243 liquidair : be that as it may, and despite previous occasions, the fact of the matter is A little sensitivity wouldn't go amiss, i don't think. That I just plain
244 LTC8K6 : This is like looking for a needle in a haystack, but you can't find the haystack...
245 nupogodi : I think, regarding carriers, helicopters would probably be most useful and I recall someone saying that just such a ship is en-route.
246 tomlee : People just want to play SAR expert for the day. I would too, but the data coming form the AMSA and NTSB work looks good to me so I don't see the poi
247 mandala499 : We all know the answer... sadly... none... I don't entertain the "hide the airplane in the northwest" theory. What I wanted with the intermediate pin
248 canoecarrier : I'd think most countries capable of having spy satellites probably assume other countries have satellites capable of providing better resolution than
249 Post contains images Kaiarahi : To which I would add that most carrier aircraft are not suitable for searching.
250 Post contains links jetblueguy22 : Hi All, This thread has gotten long and Part 42 has been created. It can be found here MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42 (b
251 GZed : Possibly being "stationary and intact" somewhere is certainly not a conspiracy theory. I can tell you for a fact that the appropriate organisations a
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