Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 42  
User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2807 posts, RR: 4
Posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83547 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Due to length part 41 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 42:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL TOWARDS OTHER USERS AND KEEP THE FORUM RULES AND REGULATIONS IN MIND WHEN POSTING IN THE FORUMS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY RULE VIOLATIONS, PLEASE BRING THIS TO THE ATTENTION OF THE MODERATORS BY MAKING USE OF THE “SUGGEST DELETION FUNCTION”. ****

**** WHEN STATING FACTS, STATISTICS OR NEWSWORTHY BULLETINS, PLEASE BE SURE TO INCLUDE AN HTML LINK OR REFERENCE TO A PUBLICATION. IF YOU ARE MERELY PROVIDING AN OPINION, PLEASE MENTION THIS IN YOUR POST. ALL MEMBERS ARE RESPONSIBLE TO AVOID ARGUMENTS BASED ON RUMORS OR MISINFORMATION


**** MESSAGES OF AGREEMENT SUCH AS "ME TOO", "I AGREE WITH X", ”YES” OR ”NO” HAVE BEEN FOUND TO WASTE TIME AND SPACE AND ARE THEREFORE T”O BE AVOIDED. A MESSAGE CONSISTING OF ONLY ONE OR TWO LINES OF TEXT IS PROBABLY NOT WORTH POSTING. DO NOT MAKE POSTS THAT CONTAIN ONLY A SMILEY FACE, CHECK MARK, ETC. MAKE SURE THE CONTENT OF YOUR POST IS RELEVANT TO THE TOPIC. ****


Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

Pat

[Edited 2014-03-22 09:11:36 by SA7700]


All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
285 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83795 times:

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 247):
I don't entertain the "hide the airplane in the northwest" theory. What I wanted with the intermediate pings was only to find where along the arc is the most likely position of the last ping because my interest is for the world to find the plane and then we can get on to the next stage. Finding it, in my opinion is important, regardless of the aircraft being intact or in pieces over land or underwater. So please do not slap my reasoning by thinking I am with the "oh it must have been hidden in the desert somewhere" bandwagon. I just want the plane found!

The satcom as in the inmarsat interview would not survive a crash so it would not be stationary after a crash. The only way the modem would work and the plane be stationary is either hide in the desert situation or a freefall for an hour. (unlikely for both) As I've oft repeated and is now in the inmarsat interviews directly the points are all used as part of their estimation and refinement process. We should leave it upto the experts as I never even thought inmarsat being a GEO based sat could even get this type of info from a communications network. (Genuinely surprised when I read they had information about the direction and possible end of the flight)

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 247):
This is what the common ground is and should be. Those who say, "scrap the search, it's landed in Pakistan", is irresponsible, and perhaps immoral too.
However, saying that "if it landed, then this is going to be extremely difficult to find because (insert whatever reason)", is not irresponsible. (mine would be, "because if flown afterwards it would have flown without the satcom active, which is our last link to the aircraft.")... Any credible lead, is a good lead at the moment.

We already know there is no pause or significant anomaly in the ping data to suggest the plane landed intact as the last ping just has it travelling off and past its maximum range shortly after. This gets back to the ELT activation as if the plane crash landed in the extremely rare case of being in basically one piece the automatic g-activated battery powered ELT would have been detected by now.

Which is why I think ELTs should be able to turn on in situations where the transponder is non-functional or other abnormal conditions indicate the plane is gone "dark" and the ELT with its independent power is the perfect solution for accidental and even deliberate gone "dark" situations. In almost all jet crashes there isn't much left and the automatic ELT never goes off. (If it transmitted before impact should other tracking methods fail then SAR response would be much faster and survivors retrieved faster) Using ACARS for SAR requires analysis and subscription to a system which doesn't have battery power and can be disabled manually as well.


User currently offlinecanoecarrier From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2841 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83690 times:

Reposted from the last thread. These move too fast....

Quoting tomlee (Reply 178):
The images are from DigitalGlobe which is a commercial sat imaging company. If you have the money you can buy the highest quality images they can produce.
Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 184):
Actually DigitalGlobe is allowed to take images above commercial grade resolution, but can sell those only to US Military, 50cm is the cutoff. They have two sats one with 46cm another with 25cm.

I'd think most countries capable of having spy satellites probably assume other countries have satellites capable of providing better resolution than what's commercially available. Personally, I don't think the images that were released yesterday were intentionally blurred. What's more closely held as a state secret is the time that it takes to turn around an image once a satellite has been tasked. DigitalGlobe is a commercial firm, they probably would go out of their way to show what their satellites are capable of.

Some thoughts on a comment posted several "parts" of this thread ago. I believe someone said that the crew has the option of pulling the breaker or in some way turning off the DCVR/DFDR if an event happens that is resolved and they want to save the recording. IIRC this is primarily due to limitations in the recording media (i.e., it records voice for 2 hours).

The last revision the FAA made to the CVR and Digital Flight Data Recorder Regulations resulted because, "The information recorded on cockpit voice recorders (CVRs) and Digital Flight Data Recorders (DFDRs) has not always been sufficient to support the NTSBs investigations."

At that time, the NTSB recommended that for all aircraft manufactured after January 1, 2003, "Both recording systems should be capable of recording all mandatory data parameters covering the previous 25 hours of operation and all cockpit audio and controller pilot datalink communications for the previous two hours of operation."

That should be revisited. If for some reason they find the CVR and DFDR and all we have is dead air, we of course can make some assumptions. But with aircraft capable of flying for well over 10 hours and flash memory capable of recording an order of magnitude more than that, we should at least record the gate to gate time.

[Edited 2014-03-21 10:16:34]


The beatings will continue until morale improves
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8481 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83602 times:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 201):
Strange why do we know about the obviously NRO military 10cm resolving cameras which DigitalGlobe doesn't have.

We know what they want us to know, and no more  
Quoting tomlee (Reply 201):
I'm sure there is some super secret stuff but I doubt you want that to fly on a commercial sat

I didn't say that. You made that assumption.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 201):
Although it is true we wouldn't know but I doubt DigitalGlobe would get to use it for their commercial branded side of things.

We don't know that they do.

I was simply responding to the comments that GZed made:

Quoting GZed (Reply 177):
I have spoken with someone who has seen high quality images that show the so called "debris field" much more clearly than the images released. The images he has seen will never be released because the owner of the "equipment" that produced the images do not want to demonstrate their true capabilities - standard national security stuff.

I have no doubt that there is secret satelite technology out there, both private and military, that is way more advanced than what we know. It's even possible that someone has already spotted the debris by now using this secret technology but they can't just tell the World and risk revealing their strategic capabilities.


User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83394 times:

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 2):

I'm pretty sure they are just making the CVR/DFDRs to match regulations and that is it for the most part. With flash memory density increases it is easy to get probably a few flights worth of data stored on one crash survivable unit. RIPS or basically backup power for the black boxes would help a lot in deliberate and certain accidental cases as they can keep recording for 10 minutes after losing supplied power.


User currently offlineliquidair From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83629 times:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...s-of-communication-from-MH370.html

apparently, they have a transcript of the last 54 minutes of communication....


User currently offlinetheaviator380 From UK - England, joined Feb 2013, 408 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83490 times:

If it's true it was pilot who committed suicide by doing all sorts of crazy stunts then I won't be surprised if he made pretty decent landing on ocean surface (I know it's difficult at night still..), plane remained intact and sunk to the bottom without leaving any traces, no question of survivors as people were already passed out lack of oxygen.

User currently offlinespacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3630 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83305 times:

From the previous thread:

"In the first 6 pings, does it actually matter in regards to finding the wreckage?"

It could, because you can at least make probabilistic estimates of its flight path if you know the actual distance between pings vs. the distance from the plane to the satellite. And depending on how much variance you saw, you could make some determination if it was maneuvering or had even landed. (For example, if both the 7th and 8th pings were from the same distance, then theoretically the plane could be traveling along the arc itself - which would indicate a turn had been made - or it also could have landed.)

Many of these questions seem to have been answered by Inmarsat themselves, who have said the distance between each ping was constant. It does not seem to have maneuvered much after losing contact, although again we don't know anything about what happened after the final ping. It could have flown for 59 minutes more after that, and we don't know what the end of this flight looked like - whether a crash in the ocean or something else.

The NTSB should have all the ping data and they did come up with several probable tracks of the flight, presumably based on the distance of those pings to the satellite and the location of the satellite vs. the plane's last known location. That's why there was so much anticipation about this wreckage yesterday, because it was found very close to one of those tracks.



I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
User currently offlinecanoecarrier From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2841 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83092 times:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 4):
I'm pretty sure they are just making the CVR/DFDRs to match regulations and that is it for the most part.

Of course they are. That's what FAR 121.344 was created for, to set the requirements for a CVR/DFDR. That's what I was suggesting...to amend that FAR. But, it won't be retroactive and EASA would have to make the same change in their regulations.

Quoting tomlee (Reply 4):
RIPS or basically backup power for the black boxes would help a lot in deliberate and certain accidental cases as they can keep recording for 10 minutes after losing supplied power.

IIRC, they already have independent power that provides 10 additional minutes of operation when normal aircraft power ceases.

[Edited 2014-03-21 10:27:00]


The beatings will continue until morale improves
User currently offlinercair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1327 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 84103 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT


Sanity Check - 3/21/2014 - 15:00
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"
Formating notes.
New/changed lines will have this background color. All changes are relative to the previous Sanity Check.
Previous Sanity Check here. MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)
Minor wording/grammar/spelling changes are NOT highlighted.

Introductory comments:
I've been reading the forum regularly for the duration of the event. Before posting these 'Sanity Checks' I read all posts since the prior Sanity Check and note new information that should be added or drives changes. I also review credible (and some not-so-credible) news sources. I consult with experts. I will admit - some posts I read in more detail than others - I tend to ignore the continuous theories that have no basis in fact - but are pure speculation. For theories that have credible basis, they are noted, but not explained.

Unfortunately - as the real data has decrease, the 'noise' in the forum has increased and I'm seeing what I would call bickering and finger pointing. This is natural and will occur in a lack of information - however it is reaching the point where the forum is becoming a sea of argument - the same arguments - back and forth - with little real information.

I also see significant frustration by good hearted people would like to have more access to raw data. I have to state I have mixed opinion on this. As an engineer and scientist (Ph.D. EE), I tend to like raw data. However, as a Fire Chief who has had to provide information to the press and residents through major catastrophes, I have also see where people will take raw data and run wild with it. Fundamentally, it is a tight rope - more can be more, or it can be misleading. Less can be less, or it can be focused.
You will note I'm not defending, or condemning various agencies here, be they Inmarsat, Boeing, NTSB, and so on - just pointing out they are in a hard position.
Frankly - I want their efforts focused on finding MH370, not informing an interested, often biased, but not directly involved public.

When I started these posts - I specifically called them Sanity Checks because the purpose was to inform and, by doing so, keep the forum kind of in the space of factual/data driven discussions. Something I think it is in danger of loosing now.
With this Sanity Check I'm re-doubling that effort and trying to address a few areas that have had much attention (and controversy). While those sections will, by necessity, include some of my own interpretation and bias, I' trying to be as factual as possible.

The areas I've added are related to:
Ability of a 777 to fly on, uncontrolled (by pilots) for 7+ hours. (New Section)
The non-published Inmarsat ping data. (See Satcom Pings Section
A brief run down of credible theories.

First, I'm going to start with a restatement of what we know - right up front.
The aircraft departed KUL normally then secondary radar, voice and ACARS Contact was lost.
The aircraft turned west, then north west and primary radar contact was lost.
The aircraft continued to fly, or operate, for approximately 7 hrs.
We have not found the aircraft or wreckage and have not received any ELT transmissions.

3/19/2014 3/21/2014 - 1500Z changes since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
No debris has been found west of Australia. Searching continues.
Added sections listed above.
Various slight updates.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
Reports that ACARS indicated new way-points were programed into the FMS before LOS have not been clarified in last 24-48 hours.
Discussion on this has gone dark. That may indicate the reports were wrong or that further discussion has been limited due to law enforcement investigations (given the 'leak' rate - I find the later unlikely).
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
The validity of the 45K reports is being questioned.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on examination of the last signal, 2 corridors have been identified for searching.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Further reported analysis by the NTSB has reduced the search area. We are not privy to that analysis.
Corridor one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Corridor two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.

Time-line
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake


ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
This last fact (only EHM) is somewhat questions because of 3/18 reports of new way-points being programmed. This would require ADS-C
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
There seems to be some indication that ADS-C data with changed way-point information was included in the last ACARS report.
UPDATE: per the transcript of the latest press conference, I believe they Malaysians are saying:
The flight did not deviate prior to LOS
The flight plan was normal - no usual way-points.
This later is not quite the same as denying ACARS data showed way-points had been added.
There has been no clarification of this issue.

ADS-C Tutorial.
ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance - Contract.
The "Dependent" is because it "depends" on the aircraft taking action - as opposed to "independent" like radar..
Contract means there must be a "contract" or "agreement" set up by the controllers an/or crew to send information.
ADS-C is not required to be used.
ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.
Various data groups can be sent. The one relevant to this discussion is the Predicted Route Group which includes ETA, altitude, lat/long at next way-point and next+1 way-point.
Prior to 3/18 we had no information that ADS-C was being used, however on 3/18 it was reported that we "know" that new way-points were entered in the FMS prior to LOS.
The only way we know of for this information to be available to authorities is if the ACAR's report at 1:07 included the "Predicted Route Group."
ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS which can use SATCOM, VHF or HF.
ADS-C does not transmit via transponder (thanks for that correction)
A good tutorial on ADS-C is available at http://prezi.com/pcuvxhcklsda/ads-c-overview/

Way-point Entry Data.
On 3/18 authorities reported that new way-points had been entered into the a/c FMS BEFORE the last communication at 1:19.
This information could only be provided by ADS-C in the 1:07 ACARS report.
It was also reported that the aircraft had already turned off course prior to 1:19.
That seems inconsistent with secondary radar data which did not show a course change.
Opinion: I believe "experts" are confusing new way-points being programed and executed.
This is consistent with statements by several "experts" who seem to be really "experts"
It was noted that pilots sometimes program way-points but never execute (fly to them).
After take-off way-points are changed in the cockpit. Experts say non-pilots can't do it, but, in fact, it is not hard and many 'simulator' people do it all the time.
Summary:
Reports are that new way-points (off course) were added to the FMS after takeoff (or perhaps just before).
This information would come from ADS-C in the last ACARS report at 1:07.
This requires flight deck access pointing at either the crew or a breech of cockpit security.
All of this data seems to be based on the same NYT report that is being repeated.
We have not heard if the "new" way-points match those reported earlier in the primary radar track.
Discussion on this has gone dark. That may indicate the reports were wrong or that further discussion has been limited due to law enforcement investigations (given the 'leak' rate - I find the later unlikely).

Way-point Tracks
A series of way-points reported that match the primary radar tracks in/near Malacca Strait.
These way-points line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The Inmarsat Senior VP likened the Inmarsat box on MH370 to a 'handset' and the Satellites to the network. ACARS, Texting, etc are all "applications" that run on the 'handset'
The system pings the aircraft roughly hourly.
The SATCOM system on MH370 is a "Classic Aero" set and connects to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR. (Source Inmarsat)
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
.
South Corridor
These corridors were defined by the last SATCOM ping.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: Time of flight seems more likely.
The satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles) over the earth. The difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

Analysis of SATCOM Pings - A discussion.
The Inmarsat 3 system as used in MH370 is non-directional and not designed to give any a/c location information. Inmarsat 4 could provide some directional information, but was not in use on that aircraft.
All that can be determined is a distance from the satellite to the a/c. Put a drawing compass on the satellite and draw a big circle. The pings come from that circle
No specific radial direction from the satellite to the a/c can be determined - you cannot say the a/c was on a bearing of 'xxx degrees from the satellite'
The two arcs are based on that circle for the last ping with the following modifications:
Locations that would be covered by another Inmarsat 3 satellite are excluded because no other satellite contacted the a/c.
Locations beyond the probable range of the a/c as fueled are excluded.

Discussion of the "other" pings - why are they not published.
Each SATCOM ping can define a radius as described above. They do not provide any course or heading and it cannot be derived.
A widely circulated map appears to show positions for other pings. That map is NOT a map of the other pings! It is a projection of where an aircraft could have been at each ping assuming a particular course and speed and includes projected 'ping' radii for each time. (link provided so people know what map I'm referring to http://www.airliners.net/uf/view.file?id=195008&filename=phpK1fGmY.bmp )
The point is the 'other' pings can provide minimal data if any. You cannot predict the a/c course based upon them. At the most, you could propose a course/speed and see if that course/speed is consistent with the ping loci.
Some examples:
Two pings provide the SAME radius. The aircraft could have:
1) circled in place for 1 hour.
2) Flown toward or away from the satellite for 30 minutes, then reversed course to reach the starting location at the time of the next ping..
3) Flown a curve along the path defined by the radius.
4) Flown a straight course that intersects the curve at the right times - that course could be flown slowly or quickly and you could not tell.
5) Flown a random course that just happened to intersect the curve at the right time.
Two pings provide a radius "1/2 hours flying time apart". The aircraft could have:
1) Flown slowly for 30 minutes toward or away from the satellite.
2) Flown at an angle between the two curves such that they reach the 2nd curve at the right time.
3) Flown any random course that happened to cross the curves at the right time.
For nearly every ping separation, we can define multiple paths, courses, speeds.
The only thing analysis of multiple ping radii can do is invalidate the SATCOM data.
If the circles defined by 2 pings are farther apart than the a/c could possibly have flown in 1 hour(say 1000 miles), we would know the SATCOM data is invalid and we'd ignore it.
In summary
While it would be 'nice' to see the loci piloted for each ping - it would not inform and so many interpretations could be placed on it, it would likely misinform.
I believe the NTSB and other DO have all the loci and have analyzed it for consistency.

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries) This section has been dramatically simplified.
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
(See http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinio...er-malaysia-flight-370/)
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, either on autopilot or uncontrolled by stable due to advance FBW systems, remained in stable flight till fuel exhaustion.
The turns exhibited could have been a combination of programmed and random course changes.
It would be very interesting to hear Boeing's take on this - or to experiment with a 777.
Regarding the fire source:
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening (though this has recently been weakly denied)
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected and suppressed.
Fire in the hold is unlikely to impact flight systems or EE bay. Freight a/c are different (thanks Pihero)
Fire suppression systems in the 777 include: Engines, APU, Cargo Holds, Toilets and portable extinguishers in Cabin/Galleys, Flight Deck, Crew Rest. Unprotected - EE-bay and Wheel wells.

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurizing by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane? Yes.
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate (and last longer)
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).

The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled.
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - people may recover depending on duration of hypoxia - or may awake with loss of function (brain damage)
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
Clarification: there are additional manual ELT's in the cabin that can be activated by crew members, but do not include g-force sensing.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf

Can a 777 fly 'by itself' for 7+ hours.
There has been much debate on if the 777 could continue to fly without human intervention for 7+ hours.
Fundamentally We pretty much know the aircraft did fly on - so any theory must support a potential for the aircraft to continue in flight. (Yes - there is some small possibility it was parked on the ground, but powered up).
t is notable that if the a/c was stationary, all the SATCOM Pings would have provide the same distance, which would be suspicious, but not proof. I believe we would have heard about that.
Without information on the conditions on the aircraft - we cannot make a determination of what the a/c could or could not do.
We can make some educated statements:
If under human control - obviously it could fly this long.
On full autopilot it could fly on - however, that would assume a course was programmed in. I don't know what happens if a 777 reaches the end of it's programmed course while under autopilot control.
If in heading and speed hold mode - it could fly to fuel fuel exhaustion. There may be some altitude oscillation depending on things like auto-throttle.
If the only control was the inherent FBW protections on the 777 - there seems to be some disagreement on what the aircraft would do.
I would remind you that both the Helios and Payne Stewart a/c continued in stable flight till fuel exhaustion. Yes - they may have had various levels of auto-pilot engaged, but so may have MH370.
In summary - there are multiple scenarios where the a/c would have continued in flight till fuel exhaustion. We have no data or basis to include or exclude any of them.

Search Areas
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
It is reported now that both corridors are equally important..
The search area are shrinking due to improved intelligence.
The USS Kidd has been pulled off, but other US resources are operating.
The latest debris reports is west of Australia - based on Satellite images - nothing has been found, searching continues..
Link to satellite images
AMSA Maps http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/incidents/mh370-search.asp

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Most Common Theories. Note - all have problems!
Successful hijacking either with crew complicity or not, followed by controlled flight somewhere. Argument against: most believe we would have found/tracked the aircraft or heard something from the hijackers. Also, actions by passengers.
Unsuccessful hijacking either with crew complicity or not, followed by automatic flight to fuel exhaustion. Argument against: Likely the passengers would know and some action would be taken.
Pilot homicide/suicide followed by controlled or automatic flight till fuel exhaustion. Arguments against: No evidence of motive. Why fly to remote area rather than immediate crash. May require hypoxia to disable cabin crew/passengers.
Mechanical failure that disabled all comms, disabled crew/passengers but left a/c flying in an automatic mode.
Hypoxia is a common quoted issue - but hypoxia alone would not disable comms.
Note: it seems most people believe a human agency is involved, but we really have no evidence of that.

Less Common Theories and Conspiracy Theories (simplified)
Other theories that seem less likely or fully improbable - however most are versions of the above.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation. This is a form of the Mechanical failure theory based on fire.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c by somebody in the back with a smart phone.

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

Dismissed or Confirmed not True
Chinese Satellite Debris - nothing found in area.
Oil worker report - nothing found in area.
Greek shipping debris - nothing found/not related.
Raft with "Boarding" found - not related
Original 'debris' reports (March 8/9) not related/nothing found.
Maldives low flying a/c - not related.
I want to stress this one. The Maldives reports are not consistent with Satellite data. To accept the, we must discount all Inmarsat data which means the search area is suddenly very large again.
Pilot family problems - reported as not true.
Cell phones ringing - artifact of the cellular system.

IN summary what we know is.
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-21 10:31:32]


rcair1
User currently offline65mustang From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 84 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 83114 times:

So it has been confirmed that MH370 WAS carrying a shipment of Lithium batteries in its cargo hold.

http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-...m-ion-batteries-cargo-not-seen-dan


User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (7 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 82943 times:

Quoting canoecarrier (Reply 8):
IIRC, they already have independent power that provides 10 additional minutes of operation when normal aircraft power ceases.

Yes I know (the short name is from the same spec I think) but how many planes have RIPS it sounded kinda new according to the documents I was reading. Because if MH370 had RIPS black boxes then even if deliberately disabled we would still have 10 minutes of recordings after.

[Edited 2014-03-21 10:57:59]



[Edited 2014-03-21 10:58:37]

User currently offlinespacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3630 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 82449 times:

rcair: Respectfully, your section on the Satcom data ignores statistical probability, which is what the NTSB is using (I believe by their own explanation) to create the possible flight tracks. If you have the plane's location at any point in time vs. the location of the satellite, and you then have a known distance from the satellite at different points in time in the future, you *can* make a probabilistic determination of its flight path given other constraints of aircraft performance (for example, we know it can't fly at MACH 2, so we know it probably *didn't* fly past one of the ping arcs and then back before the ping occurred).

Statistical probabilities are just that - they are not ironclad. But it's not accurate to say something like this:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 9):
The point is the 'other' pings can provide minimal data if any. You cannot predict the a/c course based upon them.

You *can* predict the a/c course based upon them. Those predictions may still turn out to be wrong, but you can make a prediction with a certain degree of probability. That is exactly what the NTSB has apparently done and why the search is being concentrated where it is.



I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6921 posts, RR: 76
Reply 13, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 82308 times:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 1):
Which is why I think ELTs should be able to turn on in situations where the transponder is non-functional or other abnormal conditions indicate the plane is gone "dark" and the ELT with its independent power is the perfect solution for accidental and even deliberate gone "dark" situations. In almost all jet crashes there isn't much left and the automatic ELT never goes off. (If it transmitted before impact should other tracking methods fail then SAR response would be much faster and survivors retrieved faster) Using ACARS for SAR requires analysis and subscription to a system which doesn't have battery power and can be disabled manually as well.

A simpler solution would be to disable "GPS Discreet Mode" in the SatCom. Inmarsat HGA and IGA has the ability to operate in GPS discreet mode, which is, during these "pings", does not transmit their GPS data.
Having GPS discreet mode disabled would narrow down the search area to 1 hr flight's worth... and doesn't cost anything extra using what we have today... and can eliminate one of the two arcs we are presented with today... and they can't disable it.

ACARS for SAR isn't wise on cost and how easy it is to disable it, but you can have automated flight tracking systems that can activate a rapid interval position transmission satcom (you can have 1 per second if you want although more rapid than 1 per 5 seconds isn't recommended) with other stuff such as orientation, speed, altitude, and snapshots like having a QAR at the same interval or at a different intervl, etc... and can have its own battery if you want to (albeit not recommended, as the system is as stable as the satcom that has no easy off switch)... if you want you can even use "transponder off" as a trigger.    The system can be used on current aircraft for less than 25k USD total, and a subscription of 50 USD, and bandwidth (which you can use to send only when the "alarm" is activated).



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineUnflug From Germany, joined Jan 2012, 505 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 82190 times:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 9):
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1

Thanks for that work, outstanding!


User currently offline65mustang From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 84 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 82071 times:

Does the Satcom ping have any length to it at all? EG, is there a length of 1s or 5milliseconds to the ping itself?

KUL is 217 miles above the equator. IGREX is further north. If MH370 started south from IGREX, it was flying to the equator and toward the Inmarsat satellite. Is it possible to measure the length of the 2:11 ping to determine if the plane was flying toward the satellite or away from it(use the Doppler effect)? Immersat has said that the last few pings indicate it was flying away from the sat, but what about the first two?


User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 82094 times:

The cabin crew could have used one of the 2 portable ELT's if they were alive and wanted to signal distress.

User currently offlinenupogodi From Canada, joined Mar 2014, 911 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 81828 times:

Yikes, rcair, that post completely broke the page with Google Chrome. It works on Safari but I think you have some mismatched tags.

edit: See http://i.imgur.com/eQTeUth.png

The corruption occurs immediately following your post (i.e. if you scroll down, your post is the last thing to show up normally, then everything else gets thrown up top... You probably closed more tags than you intended on.)

[Edited 2014-03-21 10:55:25]


A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
User currently offlinehivue From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1097 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 81802 times:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 9):
I don't know what happens if a 777 reaches the end of it's programmed course while under autopilot control.

When I have left MSFS running and come back later after the "flight" has reached its final "waypoint" the "airplane" is just circling overhead. Don't know what would happen in the real world.


User currently offlinetomlee From Canada, joined Aug 2010, 349 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 81669 times:

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 13):
A simpler solution would be to disable "GPS Discreet Mode" in the SatCom. Inmarsat HGA and IGA has the ability to operate in GPS discreet mode, which is, during these "pings", does not transmit their GPS data.
Having GPS discreet mode disabled would narrow down the search area to 1 hr flight's worth... and doesn't cost anything extra using what we have today... and can eliminate one of the two arcs we are presented with today... and they can't disable it.

Now the people know how useful inmarsat's modem is in finding the plane they are going to try and disable that too assuming a deliberate action. Even without deliberate action the sat modem has no independent power and if some electrical problem trips the circuit for real then we could be in a loss of tracking situation again. The ELT has advantages in that it has a battery which lasts longer than most flights, it is physically far away from tampering, and it too has GPS+Doppler tracking.

Although I having multiple modes of tracking is good too. As the satcom pings could easily carry GPS location embedded with minimal cost as well and if that fails then the ELT is the final defense which it really is supposed to be. My firmware update idea is more just tripping the test mode to send a GPS packet periodically if all the datalinks and transponder (or basically traditional forms of tracking fail).

For triggered more frequent tracking ELTs are free to use though so it might be a bit easier to airlines to accept a quick swap vs. 25k total+50USD sub for emergency ACARS tracking services. (Although maybe airlines should advertise what kind of safety subscriptions they have).


User currently offlineFinn350 From Finland, joined Jul 2013, 682 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 81468 times:

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 16):
The cabin crew could have used one of the 2 portable ELT's if they were alive and wanted to signal distress.

...which leads us to believe that the cabin crew and the passengers were incapacitated, for example by an intentional or accidental depressurization, or by some other mechanism.


User currently offlinecialome From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 3 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 81286 times:

From the Sanity Check - There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c by somebody in the back with a smart phone.

(note, thank you for the SC and now the addition of color - this is incredibly helpful)

Ages ago I posited the notion could someone "hide" in the avionics bay, etc. The various answers were yes they could, most likely no one would check but what nixed it for me was the access panel was outside the cockpit. Pffft there went that theory.

Now, in stalking this list and there was the Android 'attack' demonstration - I am now asking a theoretical. Knowing systems (but not any aircraft system) - some level of access would need to be available in the avionics bay for diagnostics, etc. That means there are connections down there.

So my question -

Can the plane be run entirely by computer - that is lock out the pilots 100% no matter what switch they through or lever they push.

I ask because I am thinking a device (let's say linux) is placed into the electronics area and plugged it. It is granted access to the system and then waits. Let's say for 5000 feet of altitude. At 5000 feet it wakes up and talks to the system - enters some way points and turns a few things off (like a transponder.) Then at a programmed time, it turns more things off until it effectively takes over the systems and flies it dry.

The last time I wrote I talked of lots of hand-waving. I am saying this again - someone would have to have intimate knowledge of the aircraft system and operating system. And then have to high level password access to the system to take control (building the device and attaching inside the aircraft would be minimal compared).

Does the computer have this level of control? And could it make the pilots essentially manikins on their own plane?

This would make for an interesting trial run then...


User currently offlinenamezero111111 From Germany, joined Mar 2014, 14 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 80545 times:

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 16):
The cabin crew could have used one of the 2 portable ELT's if they were alive and wanted to signal distress.

Excellent point. I don't think this has been brought up yet in 40 parts. Of course, from the cabin these ELTs may not be able to lock on to a satellite. And if the southern route was indeed taken, probably no one would have picked up on a 121.5/243 mhz signal down there, especially given the limited range of a handheld transmitter...


User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6921 posts, RR: 76
Reply 23, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 80531 times:

Quoting tomlee (Reply 19):
As the satcom pings could easily carry GPS location embedded with minimal cost as well

Let me repeat: It's free! It's not minimal cost.

But yes, there are progress in all these modes we're talking about.
There are also newer Inmarsat modem that are smaller, and stable enough to be put even in a place less accessible than the current ones, making it difficult to disable.
Iridium tracking solutions that can operate out of an independent power source should the main power source fail or get disabled (and can go into "alarm mode" when that happens)... with the modem box as big as three 5-inch phones stacked on top of each other. The antenna itself is multimode, therefore the system isn't dependent on the aircraft's main GPS system. This one can be made to be immune from disabling to the same extent as the "advanced ELT activation" idea of yours.

On the ELT, you can use a similar "alarm activation" method as with the satcom tracking... Unfortunately that adds cost to the equipment (you want it to be also reliable enough to prevent erroneous activation outside impact activations), but the best part of that idea is that it's free when it's activated.

The 25k tracking system costs comes with the QAR and QAR alert through SATCOM function... That's not comparable to the ELT idea. The one that's comparable, is actually as low as $1500 for a tamper proof "always on when powered" system unless you want the independent battery, and can still have an "alarm feature" for that price. Smaller aircraft now have more and more of these kinds of system because they simply find ACARS too expensive. Some mainline aircraft have also adopted this.

All this just goes to show, that a lot of the solutions are already here... if only the big airlines know about it (and sadly, no, they don't always know about it)...



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineLindenwold From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 58 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 80355 times:

U.S. has spent $2.5 million on the search so far. The budget is $4 million. Budget will obviously be reevaluated when the time comes. -CNN

[Edited 2014-03-21 11:24:29]

[Edited 2014-03-21 11:25:06]

25 Pihero : How To Derive The Flight Track With The Loci ? It's an old nav problem in my days of airline pilot cadet. First of all, what is a *Locus* ( plural *Lo
26 AR385 : This Brooke Baldwin I´m watching on CNN is a sad, bad joke for a journalist. She is pushing a couple of theories now that would make any of the most
27 LTC8K6 : I suppose it depends on when they realized there was trouble. I think if the cabin crew remained alive, they would have realized there was a problem
28 Gonzalo : The problem I see with this is, we are always restricted to an estimated max range, but let's face it, the chances of the plane being on solid terrai
29 Lindenwold : She's obviously not an expert in aviation. She is being forced to cover this story during her entire show, 5 days in a row now. Certainty doesn't mak
30 davidzill : Fox was airing some baboon the other night claiming to be a retired Lt. Gen. From the USAF, who, while on the air, claimed he was in the "witness prot
31 rcair1 : No problems spacecadet - can you point me at sources for the NTSB calculation so I can include that data in future posts? However, I do think 'statis
32 Pihero : No ! Determining the aircraft 's path intersections with the LOPs gives a straight knowledge of the speed, therefore a Mach number. As the investigat
33 rheinwaldner : I don't agree. No, the mathematical function laid through the radius samples alone will reveal a lot: E.g. if it is the negative peak of a sinus, thi
34 Post contains images markalot : In my mind the end result of what happened is now pretty clear due to the existence of the pings and the steady increase in ping time. It ended up run
35 AR385 : I would have to see her during her normal show. As of now, she seems pretty bad and pushy when being told delicately she is barking off the wrong tre
36 nupogodi : It seems to be fixed now. Not sure if it was your fault or the forums software messing up. Only Safari rendered the page in a readable way for me, al
37 Pihero : I've tried a few assumed speeds, and there are not that many possibilities. I worked that possibilities are within a 20 knots spread. How they - the
38 Finn350 : I would say that assuming a constant speed and heading they can predict where the flight ended, barring the uncertainties due to the satellite distan
39 Lindenwold : thanks, i was not aware of this bbc news channel. probably because it is channel 171 locally.
40 Post contains images akberc : Thanks for that. Said baboon, when quoted on a-net, made me buy a subscription and write my first post. It is a pity that he will shape the opinions
41 LFutia : Thanks for the added information! Leo/ORD
42 rcair1 : And that is welcome - I don't confess to have any inside knowledge. Thank you. Can you please elaborate - I would like to understand what you are say
43 akberc : Thanks to rcair1 for the excellent summary. Three thoughts emerge from the summary: South arc end - straight/constant zombie flight on auto-pilot or a
44 capri : just a thought, who patrols Antarctica? if any debris washed ashore over there with these currents and winds? on CNN it was mentioned that debris coul
45 jox : Question to those of you that have access to the waypoints usually available in the FMCs; Are there any such waypoint along (regardless where) the NTS
46 Post contains links nupogodi : http://skyvector.com/ Select "World Hi" at the top right (for high level airways) and see for yourself.
47 Post contains links 747megatop : If no floating debris is found and the pingers from the black boxes die out then what are the remaining options? Will ships be employed to survey the
48 Pihero : I certainly agree with that, starting with the elimination of the Northern loci : you'd need either a course reeversal or getting into range of a sec
49 capri : I think what he meant and maybe I am wrong, are those part of initial transition or STAR for Langkawi before final vector, or maybe a company arrival
50 nupogodi : That is an extremely ambitious error margin. They are likely much wider, especially because the plane could have flown for nearly an hour after the l
51 Post contains links jox : Excellent! Thanks! There are no exact match, but on the other hand we don't know the exact end position either. ISBIX and BULVA is close enough to be
52 hivue : I think Pihero's 2 nm margin refers only to the width of the arcs at the exact time of the last ping itself. The 2 arcs are only referenced to that.[
53 theaviator380 : India denied request because, 1. Indian navy and IAF have already looked at area as per proper plan. Didnt find anything. 2. India and China already
54 Post contains images nupogodi : Why would you do anything but go back to KUL at that point? What would be the point of overflying the peninsula and looping around to go to LGK? It's
55 cand : Do we know if the ACARS transmissions before 1:19 were through SAT or VHF? If SAT, there should be more info to correlate with. Speaking about correla
56 Pihero : Yes. Only it applies to all the *arcs* / *loci* / LOPs ( GRRRrrrr !it bugs me that we can't agree on a single term without error !
57 nupogodi : We don't actually know the error margins on those. I suppose it would depend on the accuracy of the timekeeping aboard INMARSAT-3. It's somewhat irre
58 Pihero : By the way, I'm not defending this as nmy idea... I'm just trying to explain the NTSB method. Some interesting points : - The research is not, for the
59 Pihero : Are you serious ?
60 nupogodi : 100% serious. The INMARSAT spokesman/VP/whoever he was said that the satellite initiates the ping and the aircraft responds. Therefore by knowing the
61 jox : I am not sure if I follow you here. If the satellite is as bad as microsecond accuracy (I would guess it is much better), that would just give an err
62 capri : CNN is having the Australian Ambassador in USA on the show, is giving a real reality check about the search area how difficult will be to find anythin
63 nupogodi : 1μs is pretty darn accurate. Let's say they were off by even 1ms in accounting for signal processing time in the modem, and atmospheric conditions,
64 akberc : 1000 miles lateral distance ~= 0.5 millisecond lag. However as you say, it depends not only on the satellite timekeeping but also the lag to an earth
65 nupogodi : Yup and they would have calculated the amount of error they expect, too, which we don't know. I just don't think it's quite as tight as 2nm.
66 WingedMigrator : Every nanosecond of timing error contributes 15 cm of error to the distance (accounting for two way travel of the ping from the satellite followed by
67 DTW2HYD : INMARSAT 3F1 has a round trip ping time of 0.25 seconds. Its signal is susceptible to solar flux, ionospheric and radio interferences. So I would thi
68 nupogodi : 1/1000 sec * c ~= 300km unless you are talking about 300km/2 because the round-trip time would have been divided by two, halving the error in the one
69 jox : Exactly my point! The time it takes for the modem to react and answer is going to be significantly larger than the propagation time. You have to dist
70 WingedMigrator : That's 300 km on the round-trip signal, or 150 km of range error to the aircraft.
71 nupogodi : It depends on what kind of clock is up there and what kind of data from it is logged. There's no need for it to be extremely fancy, with microsecond
72 akberc : Not exactly. Pythagoras' theorem would apply and range error would be on the base and the round-trip on the hypotenuse. It should be much more sensit
73 rcair1 : I think we need to be talking about "precision" not "accuracy". The accuracy of the clock relates to how close to it is to a given standard, and how
74 hivue : Right. But the last "ping" is the only data released publically so far. Are you referring (as I think you did earlier) to the NTSB's curved tracks as
75 nupogodi : They are linked though. Assuming the drift is linear with time, that's a maximum resolution of ~0.7ms. Pretty awful.
76 jox : We don't disagree on that, but the reason is not mainly due to (lack of) precision, thanks rcair1, of the clock in the satellite.
77 ryu2 : If that's indeed the real transcript, both pilots and ATC are using very non ICAO-standard phraseology.
78 nupogodi : That is extremely common though.
79 dc9northwest : I understand they're straight lines, but the map projection gives them that curvature.
80 Post contains links akberc : Based on this: http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/u..._Classic_Aeronautical_Services.pdf It is a 10kbps data stream, so the pings may even originate
81 rheinwaldner : Imagine a histogram, each bar with the ping radius after another hour. That histogram shows a curve, which must be (part of) a trigonometric function
82 jox : Read the last line in the transcript! This is English translation of Mandarin translation of English.
83 Dalavia : Perhaps there is a third possibility for the southern arc - maybe an attempted hijacking but the pilots fooled the hijackers into thinking they were
84 aw70 : Interesting theory. Except that hijackers would have had some notion of when land should have become visible on the way to their intended destination
85 YoungMans : This may now 'Stir the Possum' as we say it in Australia; but .... The authorities may be searching out there for something that does not exist, at le
86 rheinwaldner : Time duration measurements tend to be high resolving and accurate. If we are talking about pings, we are talking about IT networking in the widest se
87 nupogodi : It looks like that to me too, but considering their confidence a) in the NTSB most-probable tracks and b) in the satellite imagery, I would have to g
88 capri : What is being said or speculated and leaked sources on CNN, this is one reason why Malaysia was not releasing anything until full outcome of investiga
89 nupogodi : Yes, on internal timers and counters that may not be actually stored or written anywhere. Even on plain old consumer hardware, you don't get a tick f
90 ikramerica : They can absolutely be retroactive just as were reinforced cockpit doors and other safety and security rated items. CVRs are serviceable and replacea
91 nupogodi : The beacons are necessary to replace every 6 years, I believe, or after operating for more than 30 days (not likely you'll be replacing that one in t
92 Pihero : If anything, the projection is a Mercator type ( see the elongation the further you are from the equator ) I certainly agree with you. For those disr
93 hivue : I would think that those kind of seas wouldn't leave behind 24m parts (or conglomerations of parts) of an airframe for very long.
94 YoungMans : Yes, I agree with that. A search on site may show up what the satellite hasn't seen yet. At the same time, though, other leads should also be followe
95 nupogodi : Indeed. But just because certain circuits may have very high-frequency timers, does not mean that kind of resolution is recorded in whatever logs the
96 BackSeater : Of course they would. There was much discussion about the ping measurement process. Don't expect to see clocks on board communication satellites. Thi
97 iberiadc852 : That post brought me a question. Maybe if I were a telecomminications expert I would know the question is absurd, but as I am not, I ask. Would the t
98 nupogodi : This has been discussed but basically - Yes, if there was a connection attempt made by a mobile device even in the flight levels, they should have th
99 chaseus1 : If the plane was off by too much, it would be in another "distance ring" so to speak. The error in time, if any, from the planes response lag time, co
100 nupogodi : The question is the level of uncertainty in the width of the 'distance ring' you speak of. I think people underestimate the impact of the smallest am
101 nupogodi : Also, HMAS Success should be on-site (on-station?) shortly, according to previous reports. Let's hope it lives up to its name. The sun has been up for
102 Post contains links jelliesR : Lithium shipment confirmed: "Malaysian Airlines today confirmed that flight MH370 had been carrying highly flammable lithium-ion batteries in its carg
103 dragon-wings : CNN is saying that the P-8 is not flying today because of maintenance, but there are two long range civilian planes flying instead. Does anyone know w
104 777Jet : I favour the Northern Arch as well. More scenarios come in to play with the northern Arch and to be honest that is the only way I can see there being
105 Post contains links qualitydr : Many companies and organizations (in USA, at least) who need precision and accuracy in timekeeping subscribe to the US Naval Observatory's Time Servi
106 PW100 : Did you account for the aircraft part of the system (the modem); how precise and repeatable is it in its response process? Is that repeatable within
107 Pihero : Where did you get those 59 minutes ? Funny how people only read what they want to see. I said that with the original loadsheet - which includes the f
108 777Jet : If so, that makes the fire theory more possible than if there was not " highly flammable " cargo on MH370. I wonder how often such cargo is placed on
109 nupogodi : SATCOM ping every hour.
110 Post contains links catiii : Haven't seen this posted yet, but the Telegraph has obtained a copy of the communications between MH 370 and ATC. My own opinion is that the translati
111 DJM18 : Question on Transcript: It took MH370 4:00 minutes to contact KL Radar after signing off from KL Airport. Is this normal? I can't imagine there was mu
112 Pihero : No they don't. That's why you have in the end still a vast zone to serch in. ...and we're back into conspiracy theories again, aren't we ? But in a w
113 Post contains links jelliesR : There is a news article a passenger made a police report after looking down at the Andaman islands on the morning of MH370 missing, and said she saw a
114 nupogodi : I'm not sure where your aggression is coming from. It is not a conspiracy theory. All I am saying is that the errors in the calculation, which any se
115 777Jet : That looks like it could have been something that anybody could have made up. Although it was translated from Mandarin (which first would have had to
116 nupogodi : Can confirm, am one of those passengers. Highly unlikely. I have better than 20/20 vision (not for long if I keep staring at this thread) and even th
117 PW100 : Sorry if I came over aggressive; I may have misunderstood, by I read a little hostile in your reply. It was an honest question from me, curious as I
118 iberiadc852 : Yes but how would they select their search "in the flight levels"? I mean, I always thought they were trying to check if passengers' mobiles were act
119 davidzill : I have a very strong feeling there was an incident on the aircraft caused by the cargo. A fire to be precise. 777 is too reliable for a catastrophic m
120 Starlionblue : From previous thread, quoting bueb0g: 777 FBW roll control is essentially direct, so it doesn't maintain a bank angle like the 787 or the Airbus FBW a
121 nupogodi : That is not what I meant. I just mean that a successful connection is unlikely at those altitudes.
122 iberiadc852 : Ok. So anyone knows if telecommunication network companies can check for devices being active or transferring data "at certain heights" or "along a c
123 GZed : Possibly being "stationary and intact" somewhere is certainly not a conspiracy theory. I can tell you for a fact that the appropriate organisations a
124 AR385 : The problem that I have with that scenario, is the variety of turns and changes in heading after crossing Peninsular Malaysia. As I said many threads
125 Post contains links MarkAK : Hello, I'd like to discuss several topics 1) SATCOM pings. Much discussion here about the Satcom arcs based on time delay. I think this is not correct
126 nupogodi : They could track which towers your handset attempted to handshake with. A low-level analysis of that data could give a reasonable estimate if you wer
127 Post contains links nupogodi : Does the aircraft modem report the angle? All the reports I read said they used the time delay, but they might be wrong. The Classic Aero mode uses a
128 iberiadc852 : Thanks for all your replies. I think I see what you mean. I understand "flight level" wouldn't be a "search field" but a deduction from the relative
129 Post contains images hivue : The aircraft did not report anything (that we know of). I think that's due to the map projection used (got caught out on that myself regarding the NT
130 PW100 : But they would they need to have the simdata/telephone number of each individual mobile device on board. Say that one phone was not shut off, and it
131 nupogodi : That's true, but phone numbers would be known quickly and SIM/IMEI identifiers can be correlated quickly to known-good handshakes on the ground at KU
132 FltAdmiralRitt : We need a Lith_ion geek in there quick. 1)When produded is each battery tesed and charged? 2) If some are charged up I presume they are discharged aft
133 nupogodi : Technically speaking it's possible, like "this device hasn't connected to our network in the past 30 days" or however long they keep low-level logs l
134 hivue : The missing aircraft is a 777. Are you thinking it's a 787?
135 nupogodi : I cannot speak to the manufacture of lithium ion batteries in general, but in my anecdotal experience receiving shipments of lithium ion batteries by
136 Starlionblue : Probably due to it being an English translation of a Chinese translation of the original English. The grammar differences are enormous so you can eas
137 awthompson : Although I have in the main subscribed to the Indian Ocean crash theory, I have been thinking recently about the fire theory. Say the pilots found th
138 FltAdmiralRitt : No I am referring to the 777, is likely going to be the best selling jumbo, since the 747. hence if someone wanted to make room for a Jumbo twin (not
139 huxrules : Crazy idea 9000. Lithium batteries catch fire and quickly cause serois damage to cables running to antennas for radios. Then the li batts melt through
140 jelliesR : LiPo (lithium polymer) batteries come from the factory with a storage charge which is a fairly hefty 60% or so of full capacity. Basically about 3.7v
141 Starlionblue : This would not explain the loss of the transponder and all other comms apart from SATCOM pings.
142 prebennorholm : Li-Ion batteries are best stored when roughly half charged. That's how they leave the factory. If fully charged they will degrade significantly faste
143 Post contains links NAV30 : Pretty good article by a Canadian pilot here, which seems to 'touch all the bases.' Personally quite pleased that he agrees with a point I made earlie
144 Post contains images akberc : Yes, true. This article in the Mirror (UK) dragged up historical and mechanical failures from Air Malaysia and compared it to Qantas and Virgin in th
145 ikramerica : That article was mentioned many times and discounted due to the landing gear fire hypothesis being very unlikely during this phase of flight. And the
146 Starlionblue : While I think you have some good points, the AF447 pitot failure was something that could have happened in any aircraft. Yes, FBW definitely led the
147 DeltaMD90 : Why? That last split second could be the difference in you saving the aircraft and ATC learning about your death a bit sooner. ATC won't be able to p
148 Post contains links Skydrol : From: http://www.gsnmagazine.com/node/40587?c=airport_aviation_security . . . This afternoon, XM was actually advertising this special, ''Malaysia Air
149 KIAS : I agree there are flaws with that article, but I also agree that the structural/mechanical angle is a more compelling (and historically relevant) one
150 spacecadet : We've got to let the fire thing go, guys. The plane flew for 7.5 hours. The electrical system continued to function. Flight controls continued to func
151 Starlionblue : "Aviate, navigate, communicate" still makes perfect sense. If the emergency is very dire and the situation is unstable, both pilots should work on "a
152 hivue : AF447 had pitot tubes freeze. This is as old a problem as pitot tubes and doesn't have anything to do with "computerized airplanes." The transponder
153 jcxroberts : A number of leaks have stated that the plane was way over the lithium maximum. This is probably why the airline is lying. A fire can also cause decomp
154 nupogodi : FBW aircraft are safer than the ones that are not. Want to prove me wrong? Find a counter-example. Find me a FBW aircraft that has a worse safety reco
155 akberc : Agreed. But at the end it is the computer telling the pilots -- "here, take over, I don't know what is going on" and they had seconds. Also, if not s
156 jcxroberts : The former head of security for the FAA is on the record as stating this is the most likely cause. I doubt anyone on this board has those credentials
157 monjonman : Lithium iron batteries also includes lithium polymer batteries which when damaged by dropping or overcharging can explode into flames.But if transpor
158 hivue : I read somewhere about a test pilot at Edwards AFB. Someone asked him how he could be so cool on the radio with a serious problem. He said if there w
159 nupogodi : Oh brother they had way more than seconds. They had many minutes. It may as well have felt like hours in that situation, I bet.
160 777Jet : I agree with 99% of that, and that is what makes the most sense. However, there is a possibility that this was a fire. If it was small enough and in
161 Post contains links asetiadi : http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/21/wo...afety-changes/index.html?hpt=hp_c2 (CNN) -- Cameras in the cockpit. Real-time streaming of communications and f
162 canoecarrier : What does any of this have to do with MH370?
163 nupogodi : I'd always thought that it would be amusing if we could have CVR/FDRs on floats that jettison from the fuselage like an ejector seat. It's certainly
164 nupogodi : I believe the discussion was about complex computerized aircraft confusing flight crews with a plethora of messages that make it difficult to determi
165 asetiadi : I'm sure it will take more than just a hard landing... but the camera and real time information are probably the two most important things that we ne
166 flyenthu : Yes, you are right about the bizarreness and mystery surrounding this incident. Doubts start to creep in. I am sometimes doubting about the accuracy
167 RickNRoll : The autopilot had redundant pitot tubes to refer to. It had been presumed that rather than using a 'majority vote' from instruments and systems, such
168 fooflyboy : How useful would one of our submarines be in the Indian Ocean? To search and to "listen"?
169 monjonman : I suggested that for our submarines considering all the bad press the collins class had copped over the years ,why not put them to the test at findin
170 rj777 : ok, what I would like to know is: How do they know FOR SURE that the plane made that left turn less than an hour after takeoff without the FDR? And wh
171 FlyingSicilian : Pilot's unions would most likely never allow that. Some don't even like CVRs
172 asetiadi : what are they afraid of? they are at their job, I expect nothing but a normal and decent conversation related to works. They don't get paid for doing
173 monjonman : And it would not prevent a deliberate act if that was the case.
174 Starlionblue : That's not what happened on AF447. First off in the case of loss of speed inputs from the pitot-static system, the autopilot system is lacking a nece
175 FlyingSicilian : very true, it would not.
176 nupogodi : Hahahaahahahahahahah. Oh, come on! Even as a private pilot I've had my instructor bitch about his job, his wife, and everything in the cockpit. I've
177 bravouniform : Just a small point/correction. Inmarsat 3 F1 has a 1.9% inclination at 64.5 degrees. Latitude would therefore vary while longitude would remain motio
178 DeltaMD90 : I'm sure they have some in the area, but again, people forget the HUGE size of the search area. The Indian Ocean is the size of 4 Russias! They narro
179 Post contains images nupogodi : Not really, we have the technology to track all traffic worldwide if we wanted to pay for it. Try busting airspace of a 'rich' country and attempting
180 tim73 : Australians are dropping a lot of sonar buoys so any submarine would not be that useful for listening.
181 Post contains images Starlionblue : Absolutely right. Just as in any other workplace, when people have time on their hands, and pilots have a lot of time on their hands, they will talk
182 WingedMigrator : Or cable harnesses that run all over the airframe. We've seen examples of what happens when a state-of-the-art fly-by-wire airplane sustains damage t
183 DeltaMD90 : You don't think so? That's pretty naive, IMO Until the pilot pulls the CB.... You don't think there are holes in even the strongest superpower ever t
184 monjonman : yes, apparently our collins class catches on fire after just having scheduled maintenance.Just what you don't want on a sub! I have read two articles
185 nupogodi : Nope, I mean primary radar across the entire inhabited part of the world, from space. Russia sort of did it during the cold war, but they couldn't re
186 LTC8K6 : Does anyone think the repeated FL350 message from MH370 is odd? They acknowledge the FL350 instruction. Then they reported being at FL350, and then re
187 Post contains links haynflyer : Two chartered commercial aircraft have joined the search due to their ability to stay in the search area longer than the military aircraft. Anyone kno
188 Post contains images mandala499 : The most that pilots are willing to happen will be still photos to show the security situation... that's it. Trust me, if you've seen an airline acco
189 rj777 : It says "Ultra Long range jets" so my money would be on either a 777-200LR, a 777-300ER, or A340
190 Post contains links Lindenwold : Australia. http://www.smh.com.au/national/mh370...ts-join-search-20140322-359u1.html wasnt trying to be a smart aleck, just realized i linked the sam
191 Post contains links KIAS : Bombardier Global Express. Private charter. Has a range of 7,077 miles (6,150 nmi). Both jets departed around 9am AEDT. There are 10 State Emergency
192 DeltaMD90 : Sounds expensive. And not even needed except for one in a billion events like these... money isn't everything, but it is something... And? We tracked
193 nupogodi : Oh, incredibly expensive, and of little real utility. I think I made that clear. Not really, you misunderstood, I was just responding to what you sai
194 LTC8K6 : I think that repeated FL350 message could be someone taking over the plane, reading the instruments, and making a fake callout to ATC so that suspicio
195 monjonman : Agreed. Nothing and no one are infallible,there are always risks attached whenever we put ourselves in an environment that is under someone elses con
196 Post contains images 777Jet : The more I look at the satellite image the more it just looks like white wash... Not too many of them floating around, especially in Australia (except
197 Post contains links nm2582 : Inability to properly operate the machine is not a justification for more automation. It's a justification for better understanding of the machine -
198 asetiadi : Ok People, regarding about real time video camrea and communications.... I understand pilots are human beings and they can talk whatever they have in
199 NAV30 : One extra point. If the flight crew did in fact turn back and start preparing for an emergency landing, one of the first things they'd have done was r
200 Post contains images Starlionblue : It seems to me like a mandatory position report. These are required to have the flight level or altitude. Nothing weird. Without speed information, t
201 Post contains images nupogodi : Guess I was! I vehemently believe that FBW aircraft are safer than others for a simple reason: with cable/hydraulics, you need to consider your inten
202 mandala499 : You're not... you're a realist on this aspect... so are many of us. It is actually this kind of mindset that enables safety improvements AND higher n
203 Post contains links b738flyUIA : Reading the local Newspaper Blick.ch from 22nd March they are writing about Iranian Experts say that MH370 may have landed on a Army Base: Translated:
204 Starlionblue : Wow. Just... Wow... One point. I'm only a lowly commercial pilot without a type rating but I don't need to practice landingsat a particular airport.
205 jpetekyxmd80 : How do you think this will be thought of....?
206 Post contains images JimJupiter : Given the popularity of "the Iranians have it" and "the Chinese are hiding it", this tabloid Bravo Sierra fits in here quite well, right?
207 Pihero : Careful ! There is a lot of electronics between these yokes and the aierons and spoilers ! This is no DC-3... *Behaves like* is the right word. a qui
208 Pihero : Don't know about MAS policy, but there are a lot of airlines in which the captain has the privilege of granting cockpit access... in flight... to peo
209 oldas : Hi, what about such scenario: 1. Cargo smoldering fire grows to electricity lines 2. Pilots realise the fire and pull off circuit brakers (or elec lin
210 asetiadi : All rite Mandala, I hear your point... so what do you think should happen? what do you think FAA and Boeing and Airbus should do to prevent something
211 Post contains images Starlionblue : Thx or clarifying! On a side note, I love me a good DC-3.
212 liquidair : i still just can't reconcile the transponder, turn back, heading north west and then incapacitation due south .. With no comms. it makes no sense- bu
213 Post contains links Dalavia : Today's press conference is underway now. http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live
214 BruceSmith : Wildly speculative question, but after 42 threads, what seems silly might not be. Has anybody tried to rotate the predicted flight path around the poi
215 Post contains images scbriml : Seriously? That site isn't worth the html it's written with. Where are the stats and measurements? The numbers are all wrong. Just a couple of exampl
216 Post contains images Pihero : No ! and certainly not. If you're talking about a cargo fire, yes, for several reasons : - Cargo holds are class C, meaning they are in fact self con
217 Dalavia : Not much new in today's press conference. However, it was stated that the transcript realised in the Daily Telegraph is not accurate. The 'real' trans
218 Dalavia : Just announced breaking news at the press conference. The Chinese Government will be announcing in a couple of hours that satellite photos have shown
219 bralo20 : There's only problem with that... That object is just to large to be part of the 772, the only section that could be large enough is part of the fuse
220 zeke : Typical china, unable to work in a global team, they have to provide yet another source of confusion.
221 liquidair : thank you for your reply. yes, i was referring to the cargo bay, specifically in reference to your post a couple of threads ago and even more specifi
222 Post contains images Pihero : Plus : it is biased toward long haulers which accumulate many on just one flight. If one considers the accident rate vs number of sectors, that pictu
223 777Jet : Just heard it on ABC24. Like mentioned above that could only be the fuselage / wing box with part of the wings if it could even stay afloat in such a
224 Starlionblue : In this case they would have been in LNAV mode driven by the FMC. The FMC uses VOR/DME signals as primary inputs, but can also use GPS if out of rang
225 BackSeater : If you could see it with enough precision, you would see that the satellite describes a daily figure 8 pattern, often more elongated in the north - s
226 timothy31388 : Maybe it is just an old wrecked ship, or yet another large container of some sort.
227 David L : I think that's probably a bit of a stretch without hearing the recording. I don't see what we can tell from that article. I think the investigators w
228 nm2582 : I believe the numbers are deaths per flight hours, and no, the site hasn't been updated all that recently. I did cross check some of the data with an
229 Post contains images cand : Agree. Cargo bay fire will not disable so many systems at once (maybe none at all). But also an electric short should not be so catastrophic. B777 ha
230 sventek : They just announced a correction to the Chinese measurements. The object is 22.5m long by 13m wide.
231 Post contains links and images flood : According to @alert5 on twitter: "Satellite photo release by Chinese of the new object sighted. Located 2630km from Perth" via http://twitter.com/aler
232 monjonman : It will be interesting to see the date and location of the image, which if more recent might give a general direction it was drifting .that is of cou
233 garpd : Looks like a wrecked bit of boat to me. Perhaps from the numerous attempts by illegal immigrants to get to Australia, carried away by the tides
234 RickNRoll : Wouldn't that be the wrong dimensions?
235 tim73 : "Malaysia’s acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein announced the finding after being handed a note during a press briefing where he expresse
236 Post contains links NAV30 : This doesn't take the situation much further, but I thought it was worth posting because the photograph shows the awful conditions that all the guys a
237 Dalavia : Yes. As mentioned in an earlier reply, the information was communicated in a hand-written note to the Minister based on a telephone call. The dimensi
238 monjonman : that's bearing 210 degrees 133 klms southwest of Australian released photo if i am not mistaken.
239 flyingturtle : A great thank you to rcair1 for providing his "sanity checks" that developed into very comprehensive and valuable summaries! David
240 YoungMans : It seems that they have already better pictures of this item as well. In the headline pre-views for the SBS TV news, 18:30 h Qld time, there was a pi
241 COOEE : No one is considering this scenario !! Helios flight 522 No fire, just scale up the 737 to a 777 .. could explain the random odd "Goodnight sign off c
242 Pihero : Actually, that was a theory I posted in thread #13 or 15, well before some colleagues came on the media ( a "startinglysimple theory" explained the b
243 awthompson : I know the general subject has already been discussed but I wish to re-affirm my thoughts. One of the recommendations (note I said 'recommendations';
244 art : It has been said that the black box signal is detectable within a range of 2000m to 4000m using suitable equipment. Even if this latest satellite ima
245 monjonman : If google earth is anything to go by it shows about 3klms deep in the search area
246 garpd : Yes it has been considered. Numerous times, extensively discussed and thrown into the "So unlikely, its not worth considering" bucket. Please read th
247 monjonman : The telegraph has stated that the Chinese satellite images were taken 2 days after the previous images which begs the question are they the same objec
248 b738flyUIA : I have been using FS for decades and not for real. I think there are some more tricky ones like you mentioned including former Kai Tak. Sure nothing
249 airbazar : Sounds like just another version of the highly elaborate conspiracy theory that has the Russians saying the plane was hijacked by the U.S. military t
250 garpd : Pihero, I usually have nothing but the utmost respect and confidence in your posts. But I think you are wrong on this one. I also think you are being
251 COOEE : Well Why is the pressurisation that much more complex? Love to hear the explanation.
252 garpd : Read the preceding threads. I'm not going to spoon feed you.
253 COOEE : All I am suggesting i s that the last sign off should have been a repeat of directional headings - but the timing was post lost of transponder signal
254 Kaiarahi : How about a laptop letting go in the cockpit? The FAA has a database of 160+ incidents (last time I looked) involving Li-Ion consumer products on fli
255 Post contains links PanAmPaul : In addition to the new image, Chinese and Japanese aircraft are joining the search - despite the possible category one cyclone I suppose. China Satell
256 Post contains links xtra1 : What about sabotage? MAS had a few previous incidents:- Malaysia Airlines A330 Incident Details (by HAWK21M Jan 13 2005 in Civil Aviation) In 2005; M
257 capri : WoW this will open up a new dimension of investigation, no one mentioned if this aircraft was dispatched MEL/CDL free??[Edited 2014-03-22 06:52:41]
258 Post contains links Pihero : A possibility... and a terrifying one. But it doesn't really connect with the transponder and Com losses in succession in a very short time. I could
259 cougar15 : yeah, that was 10! Years ago and from what I know long since "discretely resolved" by local officials after taking a good hard look at the ground Cre
260 Ty134A : now one question: what single "piece" of a 772 is 22m x 13m and stays afloat for 2 weeks? or lets rephrase: what part of a 772 with the dimension 22m
261 imatams : A wing with empty fuel tanks that act as a large air pocket?
262 rc135x : Perhaps our satellite image experts can shed light on this puzzling issue. After staring at the satellite image du jour of an object 74 x 33 feet I am
263 nupogodi : The high-resolution images on Google are aerial photography, not satellite imagery. Lots of ocean to image. Not *that* many spy satellites in compati
264 imatams : As mentioned somewhere in previous threads: the highest res images on Google Earth are from arial photography, not satellites.
265 rc135x : Thank you for clarifying that. I did not know this. Yes, thank you for this---so why can't their analysts discriminate the object the size of a small
266 Kaiarahi : Unless the discharge hit the cb panel. But I agree the EE bay short/arc is a simpler explanation.
267 Pihero : What I find terrifying in this theory is that the crew would not readily identify the origin, thinking more of an aircraft system fault... If that fi
268 nupogodi : Would they tell you if they could? Everyone's deploying significant SAR and it's the most likely place for the aircraft to be, according to the NTSB.
269 Post contains links Kaiarahi : FAA database: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/...o/media/battery_incident_chart.pdf Very sobering ....
270 DTW2HYD : This statement is partially true. Google uses aerial images only for cities and landmarks, particularly to generate realistic 3D images. Rest of eart
271 mandala499 : As far as I know, it hasn't been allowed at MAS for over 10 yrs... The Captain who let the 2 girls in did end up in trouble (and reported to be a "tr
272 nupogodi : Well yes that's why I said "the high resolution imagery", people zoom in and look at a stop sign on Google and are like, wow, but at 50cm resolution
273 cat3appr50 : The assertions that fire on the aircraft most likely caused this sequence of events IMO seems to be a major stretch, given the facts reported, if they
274 capri : Do you still believe in integrity of Malaysian government??? How hard is it to release audio tapes and Cargo manifest after 2 weeks, so they can at l
275 nupogodi : Actually, no. The G-activated ELT wouldn't work underwater, or in a severe crash would be destroyed.
276 Post contains links and images Owleye : Autopiloted and running out of fuel. Vanishing into the desolate Roaring Fourties. Sinking in the deep Indian Ocean. Hope all on board were unconsciou
277 holzmann : Powerful stuff, Owleye. Makes you stop all the nonsense conspiracies, pause, and reflect for a moment. Thanks.
278 boacvc10 : ummm. that pic is bound to be inflammatory. absolutely not required, despite the artist's work. perhaps it needs to be having a large "IMAGE FOR ILLU
279 DeltaMD90 : Umm isn't it obvious it's not a real picture? It is a very sobering picture
280 jcxroberts : There are too many twists and turns, ifs and buts in a fire theory. History has show us that the simplest answer is often the correct one. ---- There
281 Post contains links boacvc10 : With the number of people on the internet that don't know/don't care/don't have clue how to verify/twitter/pinterest/news feeds, and the need to shar
282 747megatop : The main issue with a fire theory is how did a fire (if there was) never progress further and destroy the aircraft? How did the aircraft fly for hour
283 davidzill : It's probably the same debris the Aussies observed via satellite, just getting carried around by choppy seas and strong currents.
284 garpd : You need to relax and get a grip. It is a poignant illustration and clearly noted as so in the post.
285 Post contains links jetblueguy22 : Hi All, This thread has gotten long so Part 43 has been created. It can be found here MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43 (by
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 posted Thu Mar 20 2014 11:42:10 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 46 posted Tue Mar 25 2014 22:35:18 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 posted Thu Mar 20 2014 00:49:56 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 45 posted Tue Mar 25 2014 01:43:54 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 posted Wed Mar 19 2014 18:19:54 by jetblueguy22
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 44 posted Sun Mar 23 2014 23:04:15 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 posted Wed Mar 19 2014 05:29:52 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 43 posted Sat Mar 22 2014 09:32:36 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 posted Tue Mar 18 2014 20:16:15 by jetblueguy22
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41 posted Thu Mar 20 2014 21:26:25 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 posted Thu Mar 20 2014 11:42:10 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 posted Thu Mar 20 2014 00:49:56 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 posted Wed Mar 19 2014 18:19:54 by jetblueguy22
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 posted Wed Mar 19 2014 05:29:52 by SA7700
MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 posted Tue Mar 18 2014 20:16:15 by jetblueguy22