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Washington IAD Vs DCA For Domestic Demand  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7329 times:

In a number of recent threads there have been comments about demand at Dulles, lack of demand at Dulles, the importance of access to National, etc. So I did a little number crunching with Q3 2013 local O+D.

Here are markets with combined IAD+DCA local traffic of 200 or more per day (both ways combined).

First are markets "within perimeter" where anyone with a slot can fly nonstop to DCA without restriction. For example, of the 261 people per day on average who traveled between Manchester and Washington DC (DCA or IAD) 97.3% flew in or out of DCA.

% DCA … pax/day (DCA+IAD)
97.3% ……. 261 ….. MHT
92.5% ……. 614 ….. MKE
91.2% ……. 215 ….. MEM
88.7% ……. 452 ….. PVD
87.5% ……. 420 ….. BDL
87.5% ……. 346 ….. PWM
87.1% ….. 1206 ….. LGA
86.9% ……. 326 ….. MSN
86.7% ……. 537 ….. MSY
86.7% ……. 381 ….. PBI
86.5% ……. 311 ….. RSW
86.4% ….. 1233 ….. FLL
85.5% ……. 255 ….. CVG
84.8% ……. 259 ….. HOU
84.2% ……. 233 ….. HSV
84.0% ……. 240 ….. DAY
83.4% ……. 318 ….. BHM
83.4% ……. 314 ….. BTV
82.9% ……. 491 ….. JAX
82.8% ……. 289 ….. BUF
82.2% ……. 257 ….. ALB
82.1% ……. 249 ….. DSM
81.3% ……. 254 ….. LIT
81.1% ……. 453 ….. OMA
80.8% ……. 643 ….. STL
80.1% ……. 361 ….. CHS
79.9% ….. 2954 ….. ORD
79.8% ….. 2441 ….. MCO
79.7% ……. 221 ….. SYR
79.6% ……. 270 ….. SDF
79.3% ….. 1173 ….. MIA
78.5% ……. 343 ….. RDU
78.2% ……. 532 ….. IND
77.5% ….. 3731 ….. BOS
76.1% ……. 339 ….. CMH
75.7% ……. 640 ….. DTW
74.7% ….. 1051 ….. MSP
72.6% ….. 2016 ….. ATL
71.6% ……. 366 ….. BNA
71.5% ….. 1333 ….. TPA
71.4% ……. 219 ….. CLE
70.7% ……. 747 ….. MCI
70.1% ……. 753 ….. IAH
69.1% ……. 480 ….. CLT
65.3% ….. 1455 ….. DFW
51.0% ……. 656 ….. JFK
6.8% ……. 528 ….. MDW

If passengers used IAD and DCA equally in these markets the % would be 50. Midway is the only airport with more IAD passengers than DCA, and that will change by fall. JFK is close to 50%, and DFW is about 2/3 DCA and 1/3 IAD, but that's still DCA being about twice IAD. Every other market is more than double demand to DCA than IAD, with many markets seeing DCA demand dwarf IAD demand.

If we look at markets outside the normal perimeter, these are cities where nonstop are only allowed to IAD except for a small number of "exemption" slot awards.

% DCA … pax/day (DCA+IAD only)
66.6% ……. 215 ….. SNA
65.5% ……. 503 ….. SLC
63.3% ……. 463 ….. AUS
61.7% ……. 508 ….. PHX
59.9% ……. 658 ….. PDX
59.2% ……. 339 ….. SAT
57.6% ……. 643 ….. LAS
52.8% ……. 850 ….. SAN
52.8% ….. 1775 ….. DEN
52.6% ….. 1231 ….. SEA
46.6% ……. 269 ….. ABQ
37.0% ……. 299 ….. SMF
33.3% ……. 367 ….. OAK
28.6% ….. 2811 ….. LAX
25.5% ….. 2695 ….. SFO
15.3% ……. 216 ….. LGB

Finally here are all of the IAD markets with at least 200 total daily passengers (both ways combined) specifically at Dulles....there are only 20 of them. With a few exceptions like LAX and SFO, these markets are not large because IAD is such a draw but because the total market is so large....493 locals between IAD and MCO is the #9 market out of Dulles, but that is still only about 20% of the total WAS-MCO market.

% DCA … pax/day (IAD only)
25.5% ….. 2009 ….. SFO
28.6% ….. 2007 ….. LAX
77.5% ……. 840 ….. BOS
52.8% ……. 838 ….. DEN
79.9% ……. 594 ….. ORD
52.6% ……. 584 ….. SEA
72.6% ……. 553 ….. ATL
65.3% ……. 505 ….. DFW
79.8% ……. 493 ….. MCO
6.8% ..……. 492 ….. MDW
52.8% ……. 401 ….. SAN
71.5% ……. 380 ….. TPA
51.0% ……. 322 ….. JFK
57.6% ……. 273 ….. LAS
74.7% ……. 265 ….. MSP
59.9% ……. 264 ….. PDX
33.3% ……. 245 ….. OAK
79.3% ……. 243 ….. MIA
70.1% ……. 225 ….. IAH
70.7% ……. 219 ….. MCI



For whatever reason, even with all the booming business and residential development to the west Dulles doesn't get the love. For years when discussions like these have come up people have touted growth in the region as on the cusp of changing this, but it has yet to really show up in the O+D numbers much. DCA is still the place to be if at all possible.

66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5856 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 7139 times:

The money in the DC area is in either DC itself or the parts of NoVa that are much closer to DCA than IAD.

User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3037 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 7090 times:

Until the silver line is built, IAD will also be at a disadvantage.

I know when I used IAD last year, the time taken to get from the airport to DC was definately less than efficient. The train will definately assist make that journey much better.


User currently onlinejetblue1965 From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 2415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 6864 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):

These are %pax who began or ended their journey at DCA, but still could've done a connection to reach their destination ?


User currently offlinejfidler From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 374 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6803 times:

Great analysis. Often in the DCA vs IAD debate, we just see rhetoric about why one is better than the other, etc. You actually used the real data in your analysis. I find it startling how much more market share DCA has over IAD on so many routes. I knew DCA was strong, but I didn't realize it was that strong.

If I remember correctly, back 10-15 years ago, IAD was far ahead of DCA in overall passenger numbers. That balance changed a few years ago.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6773 times:

I agree with others these numbers are interesting and illuminating. Thanks.

It would be interesting, if possible, to see these same numbers, but with BWI overlaid as well to get a true comparison of the region's three airports. My guess is that owing to the presence of the Southwest hub, BWI likely also attracts far more domestic O&D than IAD does, and maybe even more than DCA does, with, like DCA, the only markets where BWI is smaller than IAD being the transcons. Now, I'm sure that in head-to-head markets, even where BWI does attract more O&D than DCA, DCA is still probably the yield leader most of the time.

Overall, though, I think these numbers just further reinforce the structural challenge IAD has. IAD caters to a very large population center in metropolitan WAS, plus all the western suburbs in northern Virginia, and of course IAD has a near-monopoly on the lucrative WAS international market. But even with all that, IAD clearly struggles dramatically when it comes to domestic traffic (and again, I suspect the numbers would like even more stark if BWI was also included in the above numbers).


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6727 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
Now, I'm sure that in head-to-head markets, even where BWI does attract more O&D than DCA, DCA is still probably the yield leader most of the time.

I just checked MCO, and BWI had about a $20 o/w fare premium over DCA in Q313. I'd expect--without checking--that many of the leisure markets are this way, while places like CLE or MEM with more of a business travel mix have substantially higher yields to DCA.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6701 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
I just checked MCO, and BWI had about a $20 o/w fare premium over DCA in Q313. I'd expect--without checking--that many of the leisure markets are this way, while places like CLE or MEM with more of a business travel mix have substantially higher yields to DCA.

Fair. Given that BWI is a hub for the nation's low-fare airline, and supports such frequency and volume, it's not necessarily shocking that BWI would have higher yields in some leisure-oriented markets. Overall, though, I would suspect that DCA is still the yield leader on a unit basis, and likely will continue to be even after the influx of new flights at DCA (since I'm guessing that Southwest and JetBlue will be pricing DCA at somewhat a premium to their flights at BWI and IAD, respectively).


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23308 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6654 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Overall, though, I would suspect that DCA is still the yield leader on a unit basis, and likely will continue to be even after the influx of new flights at DCA (since I'm guessing that Southwest and JetBlue will be pricing DCA at somewhat a premium to their flights at BWI and IAD, respectively).

Remember that WN isn't going to fly much DCA-Florida, so to the extent that my comment about "leisure flights" above referred to Florida, WN won't change things much.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 9, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6650 times:

It's good analysis, but it'd be even more interesting to see how fares have changed over time between the two airports....particularly on domestic routes. I think you'd find that fares at DCA have either fallen or at least increased slower than fares at IAD which is also a powerful dynamic. In my own experience, I routinely find domestic shorthaul fares out of IAD run $100-200 more than DCA or BWI.

And as I said in another post, mismanagement is another problem. IAD's hub carrier is UA...a carrier which is floundering through a largely unsuccessful merger with costs that are too high and an inadequate domestic fleet. DCA's largest carrier is US, which while not the best carrier by any stretch, US has a lower cost base to work from and has aggressively pursued domestic traffic from DCA.

Also, I don't think these numbers are shocking when you look at the overall geographic distribution of people in the DC region. While the areas around IAD have grown, so have all the other areas in Metro DC. Even the District of Columbia proper has seen a huge surge in population. If you were to map out what the closest airport is for every person in the metro region, you'd find that only about 1.2-1.5 million people would claim IAD as their closest airport while DCA could lay claim to nearly twice that number.


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4330 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6640 times:
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Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 3):
These are %pax who began or ended their journey at DCA, but still could've done a connection to reach their destination ?

Some DCA destination are by connection. For instance B6 doesn't fly DCA-LGB. Those passengers connected somewhere.

That point definitely is not clear in this survey.


User currently onlinejetblue1965 From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 2415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6565 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 9):
And as I said in another post, mismanagement is another problem. IAD's hub carrier is UA...a carrier which is floundering through a largely unsuccessful merger with costs that are too high and an inadequate domestic fleet. DCA's largest carrier is US, which while not the best carrier by any stretch, US has a lower cost base to work from and has aggressively pursued domestic traffic from DCA.

That's an unfair judgement against United. IAD will always be at a disadvantage even if they build a maglev train from the Mall.

Put AA or DL to hub at IAD and they would run into the same headaches. No amount of mainline, WiFi, or AVOD can lift IAD's perception.


User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6543 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 9):
If you were to map out what the closest airport is for every person in the metro region, you'd find that only about 1.2-1.5 million people would claim IAD as their closest airport while DCA could lay claim to nearly twice that number.

This is incredibly true. While there has been a great deal of population growth in the ex-urban counties and areas surrounding DC, most of those people are not frequent flyers. They live there because they can't afford to live in the city center or inner suburbs (either they are new to the area or they have recently been priced out). Another thing that's interesting to note along that line is that I believe the median income in DC/Inner suburbs has increased dramatically at least with respect to the national average. So what we have seen here in the DMV is that while population of DC and Arlington county has increased very rapidly, it's even more impressive than it actually appears because there is a huge influx of high income residents comepenstating for the outflow of lower income residents who are being priced out to the exurbs. As a result, DCA remains the preferred airport for the majority of the frequently flying public, who happen to mostly live inside the beltway.


User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 6391 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
IAD will always be at a disadvantage even if they build a maglev train from the Mall.

MWAA knows this... A couple of months back I had an casual conversation with a guy from planning who told me that he and a couple of his coworkers were jokingly wondering what the economic impact of shutting down DCA on the region would be to force the traffic to either IAD or BWI. Now I know BWI isn't run by MWAA but it was more just a thought exercise. It's pretty hard to figure out where to draw the scope of it. Like if you shut down DCA, redeveloped the land currently there (which by the way is right next to a metro station, commuter rail line and on the water) what the value of that would be, and then also the effect that the removal of height restrictions on adjacent buildings in VA would have. As far fetched as it was it was an interesting thought exercise.

It all just goes to show that people at MWAA are trying to think of everything when it comes to moving more traffic through IAD, even if it is just brainstorming level.

As a lifetime DC resident, I really wish that congress wouldn't have a say in DCA slots. It really upsets me. And I still call it National. It will never be named after that President from California. It's a home rule thing... not a party thing.

Anyway... MWAA is trying to figure out what to do about IAD's numbers, and they don't expect the silver line to change anything.


User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 14, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6304 times:

The Washington Post had a piece this week about how DCA could handle up to 2.4 million more people next year, once the US-AA slot divestitures are completed. WN plans to have 44 dailies at Reagan by the end of the year. All those RJ's being replaced by 737's will have an effect.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ounces-new-reagan-national-routes/

That means DCA could soon be at nearly 23 million passengers, without adding a single slot, so no slot-related congestion. What I think is most interesting is how WN is using some of these slots precisely on non-vacation markets like CAK, BDL, and CHS. Clearly WN sees enough business-traveler yield potential at medium-size markets to use slots there. All of these are markets at which the airline or FL (is CAK WN yet?) serve BWI, so the airline doesn't seem to think serving DCA from these less-dense markets will hurt them as spokes at BWI.

None of what you all have posted above about DCA-IAD traffic distribution is surprising. After all these years, and the outward growth of the DC area, DCA is still the airport to be at. The growth along the Dulles corridor isn't all outpriced seekers of less outrageously overpriced housing; there's a substantial business corridor as well. But it isn't nearly the density of downtown DC, gentrification (read: people with disposable income to fly) has put DC over 600 million population again, and essentially anything from Falls Church on in is closer to DCA.

But IAD's international numbers are impressive: over 7 million last year. Air China is soon to start 4x weekly to PEK (on top of Star partner UA's daily, right?). International probably will remain IAD's strength, so the question arises: what to do about C-D? If it ever is replaced, they might need to add only 3/4 of its capacity.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6278 times:

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 14):
what to do about C-D? If it ever is replaced, they might need to add only 3/4 of its capacity.

Absolutely nothing will be done about C/D until MWAA figures out their debt issues unless if UA wants to pay for it completely by themselves. Frankly I don't think anything will happen anytime soon. Especially with the issues MWAA is running into with Phase I of DCMP and the fact that DCMP Phase II isn't supposed to be completed until 2018-9 or so. They just have too much debt to finance another major construction project.


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5856 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6231 times:

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 14):
All those RJ's being replaced by 737's will have an effect.

   And this is how capacity will slowly expand at all of our busiest airports. No need to build expensive and controversial new airports in the middle of nowhere. Concourses will get a little bit crowded, but that's the price of success.

That said, the DC area as a whole will continue to experience strong growth, and IAD will resume growth as well in the late 2010s as 1) the Silver Line is completed and 2) some wealth slowly moves westward in the wake of continued growth.


User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 17, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6209 times:

Also, and this is just personal, but I don't like IAD as an airport to use any more. When security was on the second floor steps from the ticket counters, and it was a few more steps to a moon buggy to whisk you to your concourse, IAD was actually reasonably easy to use. You never changed floors, you just stood on a moving vehicle for a few minutes. Now it's escalators down into the earth, trains and hundreds of feet of backwalking just to get from the train station, then up two flights of escalators. It's a convoluted mess.

DCA remains as convenient as ever. They're expanding the A security checkpoint, so WN and B6 pax will have more room to work with.

Also, I wonder if WN's higher costs are making BWI a less attractive drive than it used to be. I don't drive up there unless there's at least $50 of savings. Five or six years ago, BWI was so much cheaper that I didn't even look at DCA on a lot of routes. Now, the fares tend to be much closer. I don't need to check a bag on on all but the longest trips, so baggage fees aren't an issue. It doesn't pay me to be loyal to any airline. I love the experience of flying WN, but I have good experiences with the employees of the other carriers, too.

WN, as I've said for some time, needs to deal with their costs. At DCA, slightly lower costs plus DCA yields should make it a gold mine for them. But to keep BWI strong, they need to deal with costs.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 18, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5878 times:

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 15):
Absolutely nothing will be done about C/D until MWAA figures out their debt issues unless if UA wants to pay for it completely by themselves. Frankly I don't think anything will happen anytime soon. Especially with the issues MWAA is running into with Phase I of DCMP and the fact that DCMP Phase II isn't supposed to be completed until 2018-9 or so. They just have too much debt to finance another major construction project.

All of this sounds correct to me. Gate capacity isn't an issue, and the Metro has proven more costly than planned. Just keep the paint fresh and make sure C-D has concessions suited to its traffic mix. Although the building was built to be temporary, it seems to be holding up well....even if it looks like (as someone at this site put it) a giant jetway.

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 13):
A couple of months back I had an casual conversation with a guy from planning who told me that he and a couple of his coworkers were jokingly wondering what the economic impact of shutting down DCA on the region would be to force the traffic to either IAD or BWI.

With about 7 million people, with one larger and more affluent center and one smaller and much less affluent center, the DC-Baltimore area is the smallest in the US to have three 20-plus million pax / year airports. It means the distribution will always be odd. BWI is well-suited to be a low-fare hub. It seems to stay uncongested even without parallel mainline a/c-capable runways, due to its mainline-heavy a/c mix. It's between the two metro-area centers, closer to the less affluent one, and is well-located near the East Coast for hub connections.

Because DCA pulls away the downtown business traffic and leisure for population around it, IAD is at a structural disadvantage. I actually think UA does well at IAD given that situation, maintaining hub links to almost all large, medium, and small markets in the East. Yes, the thinner traffic means smaller, higher-CASM a/c, but the hub is still there, easily feeding UA's international and West Coast flights (the main purposes of the hub for UA). It just means that IAD won't be a domestic legacy hub of choice, say for going to Florida.

I for one would argue that UA is a post-consolidation loser for hubs on the East Coast. EWR is a congestion mess, even though it has domestic-suitable density, and IAD is weak for downtown high-yield traffic. CLT and ATL are far better hub facilities.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 16):
That said, the DC area as a whole will continue to experience strong growth, and IAD will resume growth as well in the late 2010s as 1) the Silver Line is completed and 2) some wealth slowly moves westward in the wake of continued growth.

IAD does well, given the situation. I think MWAA miscalculated on incurring the cost of the trains; the moon buggies were actually convenient and didn't require musical-escalators by pax. But the airport serves its place in the regional three-airport market structure. International growth can help keep the debt serviced, and reduce the impact of the costs of building the train.

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineoc2dc From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 410 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5760 times:

Originally I wanted to partially blame the additional beyond perimeter slots for the demise of IAD. However, those slots are limited, especially to huge markets like DCA-SFO/LAX.

This data makes it seem like no matter what, if people have to connect to get to the DC, they will overwhelmingly choose to fly into DCA. There are no restrictions the government can put on DCA to force more passengers through IAD. . .People can simply connect and get to DCA. The only restriction is the passenger capacity at DCA. I'm not sure how much it is designed to hold, but if they meet that capacity, traffic may start to shift back a bit to IAD.


Does anybody else see any parallels between IAD and NRT?



I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
User currently onlinejetblue1965 From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 2415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5697 times:

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 18):
I for one would argue that UA is a post-consolidation loser for hubs on the East Coast. EWR is a congestion mess, even though it has domestic-suitable density, and IAD is weak for downtown high-yield traffic. CLT and ATL are far better hub facilities.

They don't have the same functionality.

CLT is primarily a regional hub (much higher volume relative to catchment area) with some European services.

EWR is about New York plus global connections to far corners such as BOM, TLV, GRU, and HKG.

Regarding the facility alone, EWR Terminal C easily rivals CLT. Of course, IAD is still a relic.


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6936 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5651 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 20):
Regarding the facility alone, EWR Terminal C easily rivals CLT. Of course, IAD is still a relic.

Is it?

EWR is more of a delayed hellhole, IAD is just dumpy. IAD at the very least has a major operational advantage.



"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently onlinejetblue1965 From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 2415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5442 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 21):

Is it?

EWR is more of a delayed hellhole, IAD is just dumpy. IAD at the very least has a major operational advantage.

JFK and LGA are barely better in the on-time rankings, so it's not all roses and peaches across the river either.


User currently offlineLoudounHound From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5283 times:

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 19):
This data makes it seem like no matter what, if people have to connect to get to the DC, they will overwhelmingly choose to fly into DCA. There are no restrictions the government can put on DCA to force more passengers through IAD. . .People can simply connect and get to DCA. The only restriction is the passenger capacity at DCA. I'm not sure how much it is designed to hold, but if they meet that capacity, traffic may start to shift back a bit to IAD.

First time post following the typical years of lurking on the board.

I also found the numbers quite revealing. The problems with IAD are many, but clearly the market is price sensitive. After all, people showed up in droves during Independence Air's brief life, because fares were cheap. Now UA charges a premium for practically every nonstop. Nearly all of my flights for the past couple years have been from DCA, even though it's 30 minutes further than IAD, due to much lower fares. Price sensitive customers vote with their feet, and they're choosing DCA and BWI.

MWAA miscalculated on several things, and a lot of those decisions were made during the Indy Air heyday. The best example is the fourth runway, which is hardly necessary now. The resulting landing fees MWAA has to charge at IAD are the highest of all three local airports, by a lot. I think I saw the numbers for 2012, and if memory serves, BWI was about $10/passenger, DCA was about $15, and IAD was $25 or so. That gives BWI a tremendous pricing advantage. This is also the reason that a C/D concourse replacement at IAD just ain't going to happen anytime soon.

So I agree that in the short term DCA will absorb the additional traffic from the slot redistribution, and keep regional fares relatively low with the new competition. IAD will continue to leak domestic traffic for a few more years. Eventually DCA will reach capacity, unless Congress meddles again. This possibility alone probably keeps airlines from investing in IAD service, since they'd much prefer waiting and jockeying for DCA slots.

It's going to take a long time for MWAA to pay down the IAD debt such that they can afford another capital expenditure, e.g. concourse C/D replacement, or lower landing fees. It's probably more plausible that over time BWI's and DCA's landing fees will rise closer to IAD's. Then IAD could regain a more competitive posture, and take advantage of the continuing development and increasing population of the western DC suburbs. UA management could speed things up by bringing cash to the table, too, but as others have pointed out, that's highly unlikely anytime soon as well.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7773 posts, RR: 27
Reply 24, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5270 times:

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 18):
With about 7 million people, with one larger and more affluent center and one smaller and much less affluent center, the DC-Baltimore area is the smallest in the US to have three 20-plus million pax / year airports. It means the distribution will always be odd. BWI is well-suited to be a low-fare hub. It seems to stay uncongested even without parallel mainline a/c-capable runways, due to its mainline-heavy a/c mix. It's between the two metro-area centers, closer to the less affluent one, and is well-located near the East Coast for hub connections.

BWI with WN service and the lower/more rationale fare structure (historically, less so now) also pulls from a huge catchment area. BWI is a viable option for a good portion of southeastern and central Pennsylvania and for the whole Del-mar-va peninsula. Those regions have limited and/or high cost air service and leisure travelers have shown they will drive 3+ hours to get WN service from BWI.

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 18):
Because DCA pulls away the downtown business traffic and leisure for population around it, IAD is at a structural disadvantage. I actually think UA does well at IAD given that situation, maintaining hub links to almost all large, medium, and small markets in the East. Yes, the thinner traffic means smaller, higher-CASM a/c, but the hub is still there, easily feeding UA's international and West Coast flights (the main purposes of the hub for UA). It just means that IAD won't be a domestic legacy hub of choice, say for going to Florida.

DCA just makes more sense in most cases for business and leisure travelers heading into the core areas in/near downtown and where Metro service exists.

Even when I was going to areas where I could have flown to IAD or DCA, DCA made more sense coming from DTW due to the far superior schedule/frequency (and mainline aircraft). DL only flies DTW-IAD 3x per day, versus 7-9x per day on DTW-DCA. In made more sense to fly to DCA and rent a car versus IAD and rent a car.


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6936 posts, RR: 9
Reply 25, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 5393 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 22):

JFK is definitely better than EWR from a delay perspective. A lot more volume is handled out there.

The biggest thing at the end of the day is LGA and JFK are cheaper than EWR on average. So there's that.



"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently offlineDCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4528 posts, RR: 33
Reply 26, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 5300 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 16):
And this is how capacity will slowly expand at all of our busiest airports. No need to build expensive and controversial new airports in the middle of nowhere. Concourses will get a little bit crowded, but that's the price of success.

Absolutely. It's all about runway capacity. Denser use of an existing terminal works fine as long as baggage-handling and security aren't delayed, and it makes the airside concessionaires very happy. DCA is already doing exactly what's needed, for instance--a low-cost $37.5 million expansion of A terminal is underway to increase security space just as WN and B6 are about to expand there. At LGA, small to medium markets can do fine with say four flights a day, with bigger, lower-CASM aircraft, and more larger aircraft can be brought in to increase competition on denser routes.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 20):
CLT is primarily a regional hub (much higher volume relative to catchment area) with some European services. EWR is about New York plus global connections to far corners such as BOM, TLV, GRU, and HKG.

EWR is is a great market for international services. But it's a delay nightmare, and best avoided for domestic connections that can be pursued elsewhere. CLT has three widely-spaced parallel runways and amazing density: now in the world top 20, with over 40 million yearly passengers. For domestic connections, I'd take it hands-down. Even if the spotting is more limited.  

Jim



Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (9 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 5249 times:

Quoting LoudounHound (Reply 23):
I also found the numbers quite revealing. The problems with IAD are many, but clearly the market is price sensitive. After all, people showed up in droves during Independence Air's brief life, because fares were cheap. Now UA charges a premium for practically every nonstop. Nearly all of my flights for the past couple years have been from DCA, even though it's 30 minutes further than IAD, due to much lower fares. Price sensitive customers vote with their feet, and they're choosing DCA and BWI.

MWAA miscalculated on several things, and a lot of those decisions were made during the Indy Air heyday. The best example is the fourth runway, which is hardly necessary now. The resulting landing fees MWAA has to charge at IAD are the highest of all three local airports, by a lot. I think I saw the numbers for 2012, and if memory serves, BWI was about $10/passenger, DCA was about $15, and IAD was $25 or so. That gives BWI a tremendous pricing advantage. This is also the reason that a C/D concourse replacement at IAD just ain't going to happen anytime soon.

One of the biggest relics from the Indy Air days is the shelf'd plans that MWAA has for the E/F gates. Infact when the APM was built, they actually built the shell of the station for the E gates. It's not finished out or anything, but there is a cavern there. It wouldn't have had any international capacity, no sterile corridors, nothing. Basically a dedicated terminal for a low cost carrier or strictly domestic operations. If I am correct, the first half of It would have also served as a life boat during the C/D reconstruction process in order to keep operations going. There would have been piers off the sound end of it to serve RJs and stuff, and I believe this would have called for the demolition of the current A gates. I don't know if any of you notice but when they built the APM station at A, they actually built the outer platforms present at all of the other stations, and then just didn't make them operational. They are there just in case they decide to make the end of the A gates mainline and start flying international traffic out of there.

Quoting DCA-ROCguy" class="quote" target="_blank">DCA-ROCguy (Reply 18):
Although the building was built to be temporary, it seems to be holding up well....even if it looks like (as someone at this site put it) a giant jetway.

I think a lot of this is the corrugated steel looking paneling and the Dulles Grey color scheme, which is actually considered historic as Saarinen picked the color as part of the IAD master plan back in the 1950s.

Note about costs on the APM: climbing costs are the reason that no tunnel was dug to the future location of the D gates. It was originally in the plan, along with an APM for the IAB but those were both cut out. I could go on and on about long range stuff for Dulles so if you all have any more questions just shoot away.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6830 posts, RR: 32
Reply 28, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 5181 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2):
Until the silver line is built, IAD will also be at a disadvantage.

I know when I used IAD last year, the time taken to get from the airport to DC was definately less than efficient. The train will definately assist make that journey much better.

Honestly, I don't think the Silver Line will make a difference in the choice between DCA & IAD. The ride from L'Enfant Plaza to DCA is 10 minutes, while the ride from L'Enfant Plaza out to Wiehle-Reston East (the terminus of Silver Line Phase 1) will be 46 minutes. IAD will be another four stops further out, so optimistically it will be an hour from downtown. That's not going to be competitive with time-sensitive travelers -- and the Dulles Airport station will be an 1,150 foot walk from the terminal, also not competitive for time-sensitive travelers.

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 13):
Anyway... MWAA is trying to figure out what to do about IAD's numbers, and they don't expect the silver line to change anything.

It won't -- unless there's another LCC like Independence to stimulate traffic at IAD. UA prices IAD like a fortress hub, so there's no compelling reason to choose IAD unless you're closer to it or need an out-of-perimeter non-stop.

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 13):
As a lifetime DC resident, I really wish that congress wouldn't have a say in DCA slots. It really upsets me. And I still call it National. It will never be named after that President from California. It's a home rule thing... not a party thing.

OK, but as a home rule thing, D.C. residents should have no say in the name of the airport since it's in the Commonwealth of Virginia...

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Finally here are all of the IAD markets with at least 200 total daily passengers (both ways combined) specifically at Dulles....there are only 20 of them.

Unsurprisingly, 8 of those 20 are outside of the perimeter. And even then, outside-perimeter markets like PHX & SLC also fall under your 200 passenger cutoff because of non-stops to DCA and the availability of connections. Those 20 may decline in number with WN starting DCA-MDW, DCA-DAL, DCA-TPA, and DCA-MCI as well as adding more DCA-HOU flights.

Quoting LoudounHound (Reply 23):
It's probably more plausible that over time BWI's and DCA's landing fees will rise closer to IAD's.

I'm not sure that's true, simply because there are few expensive capital projects on the horizon for either airport.


User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 5151 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 28):
OK, but as a home rule thing, D.C. residents should have no say in the name of the airport since it's in the Commonwealth of Virginia...

I always consider it part of DC because MWAA's address is 1 Aviation Circle Washington DC 20001

...and the fact that I don't believe retrocession was legal.

[Edited 2014-03-25 15:45:36]

User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5856 posts, RR: 6
Reply 30, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 5075 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 28):
Honestly, I don't think the Silver Line will make a difference in the choice between DCA & IAD. The ride from L'Enfant Plaza to DCA is 10 minutes, while the ride from L'Enfant Plaza out to Wiehle-Reston East (the terminus of Silver Line Phase 1) will be 46 minutes. IAD will be another four stops further out, so optimistically it will be an hour from downtown. That's not going to be competitive with time-sensitive travelers -- and the Dulles Airport station will be an 1,150 foot walk from the terminal, also not competitive for time-sensitive travelers.

Not everyone is traveling from L'Enfant Plaza, which is about the best case for DCA and the worst for IAD. Lots and lots of people are traveling from western DC or Arlington, which makes the travel time comparison much closer. Especially for Arlington residents the Silver Line will make IAD a much more attractive option.

People just don't like the current ground transport options from IAD. Cabs are ridiculously expensive. The Washington Flyer requires two steps and runs only every half hour (and not at all late at night). The 5A is a city bus; many people won't ride those at all. The Silver Line will be better than the alternatives for many passengers.


User currently offlineIADCA From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 1377 posts, RR: 8
Reply 31, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 5061 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 28):
Honestly, I don't think the Silver Line will make a difference in the choice between DCA & IAD. The ride from L'Enfant Plaza to DCA is 10 minutes, while the ride from L'Enfant Plaza out to Wiehle-Reston East (the terminus of Silver Line Phase 1) will be 46 minutes. IAD will be another four stops further out, so optimistically it will be an hour from downtown. That's not going to be competitive with time-sensitive travelers -- and the Dulles Airport station will be an 1,150 foot walk from the terminal, also not competitive for time-sensitive travelers.

Sure, but L'Enfant isn't really downtown, and it just happens to be the single most convenient stop in DC to DCA, in addition to being a shortcut to VA on the Yellow versus the long way on Orange/Blue/Silver. Take somewhere like McPherson Sq. - which is closer to what most people would consider DC's traditional "downtown" - and you've got 16 minutes on the Blue to DCA versus 38 minutes to Wiehle (so maybe 55 to IAD). So it's not quite as bad as the split from L'Enfant.

More significant, too, will be the effect on people in places like VA Square, Ballston, and EFC. Those are all pretty easy to DCA (roughly a half hour, with a change of train at Rosslyn, and depending on the change time). If you subtract 15 minutes (McPherson to Ballston, for example) from that hypothetical 55, you're only 10 minutes longer to IAD and no change of train.


User currently offlineLoudounHound From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 4958 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 28):
Quoting LoudounHound (Reply 23):
It's probably more plausible that over time BWI's and DCA's landing fees will rise closer to IAD's.

I'm not sure that's true, simply because there are few expensive capital projects on the horizon for either airport.

You may well be right on that count, which more or less condemns IAD to higher operational costs for many years to come. MWAA would love to divert some of the windfall DCA profits and apply them to IAD capital costs. I believe I read they are looking at legal ways to do just that. That makes sense to me since they need to prepare IAD to absorb growth after DCA maxes out, even though that time is much further down the road than I would have imagined only a year or two ago.


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Reply 33, posted (9 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 4787 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 3):
These are %pax who began or ended their journey at DCA, but still could've done a connection to reach their destination ?

Yup...when the terms "O+D" or "local O+D" that refers to people who started their journey in city AAA and ended it in BBB regardless of routing...nonstop, thru (aka "direct" flight) or connection.


User currently offlineflylku From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 830 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (9 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4604 times:

Interesting. For what its worth:

Just booked two flights out of DC today, both from IAD even though I am 2 miles from DCA. One was to LAX. I stick with UA and they have no non-stops to LAX from DCA. I will go to IAD before I will connect (something about the probably of something going wrong increasing with the number of legs).

The other was LAS. There are no UA non-stops from DCA but there are two from IAD and I need a red-eye home so it is a connection across LAX and then the overnighter to IAD.

I would much prefer DCA and even pay a bit of a premium but on many routes (again UA) I can get more non-stops and frequencies from IAD that I cannot get from DCA.

If I have to connect from both DCA and IAD I go with DCA even if it is 30% more expensive.

... where did this data come from?



...are we there yet?
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Reply 35, posted (9 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 4088 times:

Here's the same with BWI included from the same period (Q3 2013)....O+D traffic for markets where DCA+IAD+BWI is 200+ daily passengers (both ways combined.) This data comes from the quarterly DoT stats.

I arranged these markets by which airport has the largest share, and then I show the daily O+D traffic for that airport.

Markets where DCA has the largest market share.

DCA …….. IAD …….. BWI
52.1% ….. 15.1% ….. 32.8% ….. BOS
65.9% ….. 16.6% ….. 17.5% ….. ORD
52.1% ….. 13.2% ….. 34.8% ….. MCO
86.8% ….. 12.9% ……. 0.4% ….. LGA
43.6% ….. 17.4% ….. 39.0% ….. TPA
39.8% ….. 21.2% ….. 39.0% ….. DFW
35.2% ….. 31.5% ….. 33.3% ….. DEN
59.6% ….. 15.6% ….. 24.9% ….. MIA
43.5% ….. 14.7% ….. 41.7% ….. MSP
34.6% ….. 31.2% ….. 34.2% ….. SEA
58.8% ……. 4.8% ….. 36.5% ….. MKE
47.0% ….. 19.4% ….. 33.6% ….. MCI
47.4% ….. 20.2% ….. 32.4% ….. IAH
45.6% ….. 12.7% ….. 41.6% ….. IND
49.5% ….. 10.2% ….. 40.3% ….. JAX
42.1% ….. 28.1% ….. 29.8% ….. PDX
69.6% ….. 16.2% ….. 14.1% ….. OMA
47.1% ….. 45.3% ……. 7.5% ….. JFK
55.5% ……. 8.5% ….. 36.0% ….. PBI
50.6% ……. 7.2% ….. 42.2% ….. PWM
80.3% ….. 12.1% ……. 7.6% ….. MSN
48.3% ……. 7.5% ….. 44.2% ….. RSW
48.5% ……. 9.6% ….. 41.9% ….. BHM
80.8% ….. 16.1% ……. 3.0% ….. BTV
57.1% ……. 9.7% ….. 33.2% ….. CVG
56.4% ….. 12.9% ….. 30.6% ….. LIT
68.9% ….. 15.0% ….. 16.1% ….. DSM
47.0% ……. 8.9% ….. 44.1% ….. DAY
64.7% ….. 12.1% ….. 23.2% ….. HSV
76.9% ….. 19.6% ……. 3.6% ….. SYR
70.1% ….. 20.1% ……. 9.7% ….. VPS
63.2% ….. 19.4% ….. 17.4% ….. SAV
42.4% ….. 21.3% ….. 36.2% ….. SNA
53.6% ….. 11.6% ….. 34.8% ….. JAN
50.8% ….. 11.6% ….. 37.6% ….. PNS


Markets where IAD has the largest market share

DCA …….. IAD …….. BWI
20.5% ….. 59.9% ….. 19.6% ….. SFO
21.4% ….. 53.3% ….. 25.3% ….. LAX
24.0% ….. 48.2% ….. 27.8% ….. OAK
24.5% ….. 41.7% ….. 33.8% ….. SMF
13.7% ….. 75.9% ….. 10.3% ….. LGB



Markets where BWI has the largest market share

DCA …….. IAD …….. BWI
37.9% ….. 14.3% ….. 47.7% ….. ATL
15.5% ….. 11.4% ….. 73.1% ….. LAS
36.6% ……. 5.7% ….. 57.7% ….. FLL
28.8% ……. 9.2% ….. 62.0% ….. DTW
31.6% ……. 4.0% ….. 64.4% ….. PVD
26.2% ….. 11.7% ….. 62.1% ….. CLT
24.9% ……. 0.7% ….. 74.5% ….. MHT
2.8% ….... 38.5% ….. 58.7% ….. MDW
24.9% ……. 9.9% ….. 65.2% ….. BNA
26.7% ….. 16.5% ….. 56.8% ….. PHX
30.6% ….. 27.4% ….. 42.0% ….. SAN
41.3% ……. 9.8% ….. 48.9% ….. STL
28.4% ……. 5.1% ….. 66.5% ….. HOU
31.9% ……. 8.7% ….. 59.4% ….. RDU
45.0% ……. 6.9% ….. 48.1% ….. MSY
30.7% ……. 6.4% ….. 62.9% ….. BUF
31.1% ….. 18.1% ….. 50.8% ….. AUS
41.0% ……. 5.8% ….. 53.1% ….. BDL
24.9% ….. 17.2% ….. 57.9% ….. SAT
32.8% ….. 10.3% ….. 56.9% ….. CMH
34.7% ….. 18.3% ….. 47.0% ….. SLC
23.6% ……. 9.5% ….. 66.9% ….. CLE
32.6% ……. 8.4% ….. 59.0% ….. SDF
38.7% ……. 9.6% ….. 51.7% ….. CHS
35.6% ……. 7.7% ….. 56.7% ….. ALB
11.7% ……. 1.8% ….. 86.6% ….. DAL
21.0% ….. 24.0% ….. 55.0% ….. ABQ
41.8% ……. 4.0% ….. 54.2% ….. MEM
27.3% ……. 0.0% ….. 72.7% ….. ISP
13.2% ….... 4.2% ….. 82.6% ….. GRR
31.1% ….. 12.6% ….. 56.3% ….. GSP
6.7% ……… 2.8% ….. 90.5% ….. ECP
31.1% ….. 17.6% ….. 51.3% ….. OKC
27.3% ….. 17.1% ….. 55.6% ….. TUS
28.9% ….. 22.8% ….. 48.3% ….. SJC
37.0% ….. 12.5% ….. 50.5% ….. PIT
42.6% ….. 13.6% ….. 43.8% ….. ROC
30.6% ….. 14.2% ….. 55.2% ….. ELP
28.4% ….. 23.3% ….. 48.3% ….. ONT
36.7% ….. 25.2% ….. 38.1% ….. RNO


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4330 posts, RR: 1
Reply 36, posted (9 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 4023 times:
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Quoting flylku (Reply 34):
Just booked two flights out of DC today, both from IAD even though I am 2 miles from DCA. One was to LAX. I stick with UA and they have no non-stops to LAX from DCA. I will go to IAD before I will connect (something about the probably of something going wrong increasing with the number of legs).

The other was LAS. There are no UA non-stops from DCA but there are two from IAD and I need a red-eye home so it is a connection across LAX and then the overnighter to IAD.

I would much prefer DCA and even pay a bit of a premium but on many routes (again UA) I can get more non-stops and frequencies from IAD that I cannot get from DCA.

If I have to connect from both DCA and IAD I go with DCA even if it is 30% more expensive.

Everybody has a story.

I buy I own fares and get reimbursed by bean-counters. So I go to whichever airport -- BWI, DCA, IAD -- has the better fare set-up. Since connections usually mean more miles in my account, I sometimes accept outrageous itinerates just for the extra mileage (I'm flying Baltimore-to-Calgary May 1st -- through Houston). And I always travel with a spare pair of skivvies in case of a delays or cancellations.  


User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 972 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (9 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 3806 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 2):
Until the silver line is built, IAD will also be at a disadvantage.

Amen to that, not to mention the cool views while landing and taking off from DCA that you do not get at IAD.


User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (9 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 3659 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 9):
how fares have changed over time between the two airports....particularly on domestic routes

A couple of years ago I lived about 2 miles east of IAD. And I found it cheaper to drive, pay for parking, and fly out of DCA then the quick 5 minute taxi and flight out of IAD. I did this a couple of times.

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 15):
Absolutely nothing will be done about C/D until MWAA figures out their debt issues

So true. Some have suggested elsewhere that by that time perhaps UA presence at IAD will be so small they could just shoehorn them into A/B and just blow up C/D. Good riddance.


IAD's structural problem is that it is stuck with perhaps the 5th or 6th best domestic airline. All the better ones (AA/US, DL, WN, B6) are strong at DCA. As long as IAD continues to hitch its star to UA in its current form, it will domestically underperform.

I almost think MWAA should ignore UA and keep getting those international flights. They have done really well there. They should make it their goal to have a non stop flight to every capital in the world (I realize this may not be economically feasible, but cool!).

One destination that is screaming is India and Pakistan. There is a HUGE south asian population in the immediate vicinity of IAD. Many of these folks are flying the Etihad, Qatar, or Emirates service. But a nonstop on Air India or the like would make serious bank.

Other airlines that it doesn't make sense that they are not at IAD include Qantas, El Al, Cathay, Alitalia.

IAD should have just as many international airlines as JFK, LAX, etc.


User currently offlinetarmacphotos From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 385 posts, RR: 2
Reply 39, posted (9 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 3586 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
Here are markets with combined IAD+DCA local traffic of 200 or more per day (both ways combined).

Slightly off topic, but why isn't PIT on this list? I count 9 daily departures to IAD/DCA from PIT mostly on E170s. Are they flying that empty that we can't get 200 pax daily both ways?


User currently offlineflyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1160 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (9 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 3514 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 38):

Air India did used to fly to IAD from a tag on from JFK but it didn't last long.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 38):

Out of these, Alitalia did fly to IAD in the past, but it's been over 10 years and was done with the MD-11 if I recall and they parked at the H gates. That's how long it's been. EL AL I can see flying to IAD but I don't see Cathay or Qantas.

FLY



The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Reply 41, posted (9 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 3318 times:

Quoting tarmacphotos (Reply 39):
Slightly off topic, but why isn't PIT on this list? I count 9 daily departures to IAD/DCA from PIT mostly on E170s. Are they flying that empty that we can't get 200 pax daily both ways?

PIT-DCA is 117.5/day and PIT-IAD is 39.8/day, so they don't combine to hit the 200/day level. Flights are far fuller than that but they carry a lot of connections.

Pittsburgh-Washington is just too short a drive for flying to compete for most of the market these days.


User currently offlinec680 From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 588 posts, RR: 0
Reply 42, posted (9 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 3295 times:

All of this still does not explain the large number of Regional Jets used in and out of DCA.

With slots highly coveted, and DCA having more appeal than IAD, why not run larger equipment? I'm shocked these days when I look up to see a Boeing or an Airbus.

Feels like DCA is the join Canadian / Brazilian embassy.



My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
User currently offlineLoudounHound From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 17 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (9 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 3300 times:

Quoting c680 (Reply 42):
All of this still does not explain the large number of Regional Jets used in and out of DCA.

Look again in a few months and this will have changed. US and AA are surrendering oodles of slots currently used for regional jet and prop flying to B6, WN and VX, and all their new flights will be mainline. That's how DCA is expected to add 2-3 million passengers per year without the addition of slots.

[Edited 2014-03-26 05:25:17]

User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (9 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 3279 times:

Quoting c680 (Reply 42):
Feels like DCA is the joint Canadian / Brazilian embassy.

Ha!   

[Edited 2014-03-26 04:57:18]

User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6830 posts, RR: 32
Reply 45, posted (9 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 3100 times:

Quoting c680 (Reply 42):
With slots highly coveted, and DCA having more appeal than IAD, why not run larger equipment? I'm shocked these days when I look up to see a Boeing or an Airbus.

Because the largest carrier, US, has historically operated smaller aircraft to keep capacity down and maximize yields. There's no really good reason to operate two 50-seat CRJ's from DCA to PHL 24 minutes apart aside from slot-sitting.

Quoting IADCA (Reply 31):
Take somewhere like McPherson Sq. - which is closer to what most people would consider DC's traditional "downtown" - and you've got 16 minutes on the Blue to DCA versus 38 minutes to Wiehle (so maybe 55 to IAD). So it's not quite as bad as the split from L'Enfant.

Even so, the difference just on the train is going to be 40 minutes, and the train station is still going to be far more convenient at DCA vs. IAD. Plus there's no train/moon-buggy ride out to the concourses required at DCA, either.

Quoting flylku (Reply 34):
Just booked two flights out of DC today, both from IAD even though I am 2 miles from DCA. One was to LAX. I stick with UA and they have no non-stops to LAX from DCA. I will go to IAD before I will connect (something about the probably of something going wrong increasing with the number of legs).

The other was LAS. There are no UA non-stops from DCA but there are two from IAD and I need a red-eye home so it is a connection across LAX and then the overnighter to IAD.

I guess the question is, though, if AA were to get enough beyond perimeter slots/exemptions to serve LAX/SFO/SEA/SAN-DCA non-stop, would you continue to maintain loyalty to UA?


User currently offlineMSJYOP28Apilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 247 posts, RR: 1
Reply 46, posted (9 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 2991 times:

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 12):
This is incredibly true. While there has been a great deal of population growth in the ex-urban counties and areas surrounding DC, most of those people are not frequent flyers. They live there because they can't afford to live in the city center or inner suburbs (either they are new to the area or they have recently been priced out).

Loudoun and Fairfax are annually the top two counties in terms of median household income in the whole country. Affording DC is not the issue. There is just more land and larger housing out in the suburbs.

I think IAD is at a domestic disadvantage due to geography and demographics but not wealth demographics. Loudoun and Fairfax, though growing business wise, still is largely residential. Many places in Fairfax are either closer to DCA or equal distance to both IAD/DCA. This is especially true in a business center like Tysons Corner. In the western Maryland suburbs, there is no quick road connection to western Fairfax/Eastern Loudoun. This makes DCA and BWI easier to get to than IAD. The metro will help a little but not by much.

DCA will always be limited by terminal space, short intersecting runways and lack of suitable CBP services. IAD still has room to grow and expand.


User currently offlineoc2dc From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 410 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (9 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 2943 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 30):
Not everyone is traveling from L'Enfant Plaza, which is about the best case for DCA and the worst for IAD. Lots and lots of people are traveling from western DC or Arlington, which makes the travel time comparison much closer. Especially for Arlington residents the Silver Line will make IAD a much more attractive option.

Yes, some of us are traveling from Arlington. Crystal City to be exact. I'm definitely not hopping on the silver line to head to IAD when I can practically walk to DCA.... And I think I can say DCA is more practical for every corner of Arlington as opposed to IAD.



I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
User currently onlinejetblue1965 From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 2415 posts, RR: 1
Reply 48, posted (9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2911 times:

For those who live in DC and are closest to DCA, do you take a connection DCA-ORD-SFO or would you make the journey out west just to do IAD-SFO nonstop (assuming the DCA-SFO nonstop is much more expensive) ?

User currently onlineYoungDon From United States of America, joined May 2001, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 49, posted (9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2846 times:

Quoting MSJYOP28Apilot (Reply 46):
Loudoun and Fairfax are annually the top two counties in terms of median household income in the whole country. Affording DC is not the issue. There is just more land and larger housing out in the suburbs.

I think IAD is at a domestic disadvantage due to geography and demographics but not wealth demographics. Loudoun and Fairfax, though growing business wise, still is largely residential. Many places in Fairfax are either closer to DCA or equal distance to both IAD/DCA. This is especially true in a business center like Tysons Corner. In the western Maryland suburbs, there is no quick road connection to western Fairfax/Eastern Loudoun. This makes DCA and BWI easier to get to than IAD. The metro will help a little but not by much.

DCA will always be limited by terminal space, short intersecting runways and lack of suitable CBP services. IAD still has room to grow and expand.

I agree with this that most people don't realize exactly how difficult it is to get to IAD from anywhere that isn't actually in Northern VA. Places such as Frederick, Gaithersburg, and even the northern reaches of Rockville - Montgomery County in general - are about equal in geographic distance to IAD and DCA, but IAD is simply ridiculously difficult to get to and from, particularly during peak travel times.

Add to that the generally high pricing out of IAD and you get the situation you have today. As another personal anecdote, I fly regularly between DC and a few in-perimeter destinations (IAH/HOU and ATL mostly) and almost never fly out of Dulles, even though it's slightly closer to my residence and much more convenient (as my employer is also extremely close to the airport). I almost always fly out of Dulles on business trips for that reason, but unless I find a better fare out of Dulles for personal trips, I go to DCA (grudgingly).

The train isn't going to save Dulles either because it doesn't increase the airport's catchment area - the same people traveling between the core and Dulles now are going to do so via rail when that option is available. The vast majority of travelers that prefer one airport now will still prefer the same airport after the Silver Line completion. It doesn't make it easier for most people in the metro region to get there - only cheaper and faster for those who travel from there.

The only hope Dulles has in the near-term to regain passengers is by attracting further international service. The high airport fees cook the airport's goose domestically.


User currently offlineDCAfan From United States of America, joined Mar 2014, 9 posts, RR: 0
Reply 50, posted (9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2850 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 48):

I live within a block of Archives metro station and am a 12 minute one-seat ride away from DCA. When the Silver line is finally completed, I figure the journey to IAD will take an additional hour with a connection at L'Enfant Plaza. As I also normally give myself an additional 30 minutes to get to the gate at IAD, compared to DCA, I regard a one-stop DCA-SFO service as being roughly equivalent to an IAD-SFO nonstop and will pick the flight that is cheaper.


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5856 posts, RR: 6
Reply 51, posted (9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2841 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 48):
For those who live in DC and are closest to DCA, do you take a connection DCA-ORD-SFO or would you make the journey out west just to do IAD-SFO nonstop (assuming the DCA-SFO nonstop is much more expensive) ?

When I lived in DC I lived along the Yellow Line (first right by Archives, then right by U St station). The trip to DCA was so much easier than the trip to IAD that I would pay a premium for a connection out of DCA rather than a nonstop from IAD.

The Silver Line would probably change that just a bit, to the point that a connection from DCA and a nonstop from IAD would seem about the same.


User currently offlineczek6 From United States of America, joined Sep 2013, 29 posts, RR: 0
Reply 52, posted (9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2795 times:

I think if one takes a more long-term look at all three WAS airports, the picture is much rosier for Dulles. Yes, in the short term, DCA will continue to siphon traffic from IAD. But eventually, within a few years, DCA utilization will reach the new capacity level.

BWI will likely continue it's steady growth, with Southwest, Delta, Jetblue, and Spirit, and will probably attract more limited international, but after 10-15 years, BWI will max out unless they buy up room for an additional, longer runway.

That leaves Dulles as the long-term growth solution. Just hold on until 2030.


User currently offlinetarmacphotos From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 385 posts, RR: 2
Reply 53, posted (9 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 2642 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 41):
PIT-DCA is 117.5/day and PIT-IAD is 39.8/day, so they don't combine to hit the 200/day level. Flights are far fuller than that but they carry a lot of connections.

Pittsburgh-Washington is just too short a drive for flying to compete for most of the market these days.

Thanks for the info!


User currently offlineIADCA From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 1377 posts, RR: 8
Reply 54, posted (9 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2519 times:

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 48):
For those who live in DC and are closest to DCA, do you take a connection DCA-ORD-SFO or would you make the journey out west just to do IAD-SFO nonstop (assuming the DCA-SFO nonstop is much more expensive) ?

I typically connect. FWIW, I live in Rosslyn, which is about 10 minutes on the Blue from DCA but is also one of only 4 stops on the 5A metrobus to IAD.


User currently offlinedenverdanny From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 263 posts, RR: 0
Reply 55, posted (9 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2476 times:

My relatives live in Washington DC. I talked to them about the Silver line, and how exciting that was going to be, and they had no clue that it was going out to Dulles. Then the discussion moved on to what airport they did use. They use Baltimore-Washington, because it's so easy for them. They live off the red line, close to the zoo, nice neighborhood. Anyways, I thought that was interesting.

When I was younger, we would fly into Dulles on United or Continental and it was somewhat a serious issue for my relatives to come out to pick us up. Not just them. My grandma, who was the one we were really visiting, she lived in Arlington, and I always got the impression it was somewhat a hardship to come out and pick us up. It always seemed to take forever to get to her apartment. Really long drive. So, I can only imagine how much worse it is for someone across the Potomac actually in DC. Beautiful airport though.

My favorite part of going to DC, besides seeing family, was the Metro. I think it'll be cool the new line out there, but not sure it will alter dynamics that much.

[Edited 2014-03-26 16:43:52]

User currently offlineAA94 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 606 posts, RR: 2
Reply 56, posted (9 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2394 times:

Quoting MWAAdude (Reply 13):
Anyway... MWAA is trying to figure out what to do about IAD's numbers, and they don't expect the silver line to change anything.

It's difficult for me to believe that they don't expect the Silver Line to change anything. If that were the case, there'd be no point in building the Silver Line out to IAD. I live in Maryland equidistant from both New Carrollton and BWI, and I'd actually consider IAD as an alternate airport if the fare is significantly lower than BWI.

[Edited 2014-03-26 17:33:25]


Choose a challenge over competence / Eleanor Roosevelt
User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 57, posted (9 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2377 times:

Quoting AA94 (Reply 56):
If that were the case, there'd be no point in building the Silver Line out to IAD.

They are hoping that the Silver Line will drive more development along the Toll Road and Greenway, causing more people to live out there who will drive to the airport. At least internally they don't expect droves of people to come to IAD just because the Metro will run there. They also expect a good amount of employees to commute using the line. I'm not saying it won't increase the number of people at the airport, but they don't expect it to be a game changer.

The entire project was built because of the impact that it will have on Tysons Corner. That's the main reason it's being built. Tysons currently has more jobs in it than both downtown Baltimore and Richmond combined and has millions of square feet of office and residential space coming on line now that Phase I of the line is near completion.

The project was originally started by Virginia but changed leadership along with the Toll Road after the state lost support for the project. Phase I was financed heavily through the federal government with stimulus money I believe (through an FTA grant I believe). Additionally, it was also heavily financed by special taxes on new properties in the Tysons Area.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 58, posted (9 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2368 times:

Quoting AA94 (Reply 56):
If that were the case, there'd be no point in building the Silver Line out to IAD.

That's not really true. The primary purpose of the Silver Line is to enable people to more easily commute from Loudoun County down the Dulles Corridor through Tyson's Corner and then onto DC. You'll note the Silver Line will actually go past IAD to Ashburn and also the Silver Line has four stops just to serve Tyson's Corner. Any traffic to IAD is really just gravy, but the overwhelming number of people riding the Silver Line won't be going to/from IAD.


User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (9 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2246 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 58):
Any traffic to IAD is really just gravy, but the overwhelming number of people riding the Silver Line won't be going to/from IAD.

  


User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 60, posted (9 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1971 times:

FYI, BA is bringing A380 to IAD beginning Sep. 1. This may be old news but I am slow on the draw!

User currently offlinewashingtonflyer From Bouvet Island, joined Sep 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 61, posted (9 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1853 times:

I am surprised by comments from those who think that living in the "exurbs" necessarily means being priced out of the market in the inner core. Have you seen some of the homes in Loudoun County? Middleburg, South Riding, Paeonian Spring, etc.? A lot of them are not ramblers... I'll also point out that Loudoun is the wealthiest capital in the country with a median income of about $120,000. Again, not hurting.

As to the Silver line, I think it will help inbound passengers and some passengers living in the DC area. It certainly won't help me, and I take the Metro to work......Plus, I am not sure how big of a benefit it would be. Given what a clusterf**k metro is on many days, I can't imagine the number of passengers that would wind up missing flights because some idiot decided to jump in front of a train at East Falls Church or because there was a switch malfunction outside of Courthouse.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16908 posts, RR: 51
Reply 62, posted (9 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1832 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 25):
JFK is definitely better than EWR from a delay perspective. A lot more volume is handled out there.

When you use the term "volume" are you refering to passengers or actual flights? EWR has more flights than JFK, however JFK handles more passengers. ERJ vs. A380 etc..

Domestic + International + General aviation flights per year;

EWR: 410,918

JFK: 404,561



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 3003 posts, RR: 31
Reply 63, posted (9 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1788 times:

Another point of getting silver to Dulles is transportation for the 1000's who work at the airport.

I've seen everyone from pilots to rampers to rental car agents to TSA use the blue line in Chicago, and there are countless jobs at the airport whose workers aren't readily identifiable by clothing.


User currently offlinewashingtonflyer From Bouvet Island, joined Sep 2013, 503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 64, posted (9 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1758 times:

I forgot to add one point re: DCA. I don't think it is possible to do a 1:1 swapout of aircraft at DCA - removing RJs in favor of larger aircraft. There simply are not enough gates during demand periods. There have to be close to 8 or 10 hardstands for those CR2s and DH8s. Not sure where you could find 8 free gates for mainline jets. As it is, RON aircraft are squeezed all over the place at DCA.

User currently offlineMWAAdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2013, 76 posts, RR: 0
Reply 65, posted (9 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1688 times:

Quoting washingtonflyer (Reply 61):
I am surprised by comments from those who think that living in the "exurbs" necessarily means being priced out of the market in the inner core.

If you are refering to my earlier comment, yeah maybe I was a little incorrect but I don't really think of Loudoun as an exurb. I am thinking further out 66 and 95, where there has been great growth in recent years. The other thing is that a lot of those houses in Loudoun county are nice, but aren't actually that expensive relative to a lot of the real estate in DC or the inner suburbs. DC and some of the inner suburbs also have very high density low income residences which dramatically bring down the average income. I'm not a demographer so maybe I should shut up now, but I know of a lot of people who used to be able to afford rent in DC at 1500 a month for a studio who now live in Northern VA or MD because the same place now goes for something like 3000 a month. Again, it's just my impression. I know that the census did just release new estimates for this year in the last couple of days. Those might be worth a look at to disprove/prove my claims. DC looks to be on pace to approach if not pass 700,000 people by the end of the decade.

Here is a quick summary of the recent census numbers with general population, no income or anything like that.

County......................2012 population.......2013 population......Raw growth......Percent growth
District of Columbia..........633,427................646,449.............13,022.......................2.1
Loudoun (VA)...................337,248................349,679.............12,431.......................3.7
Fairfax (VA)...................1,118,683.............1,130,924.............12,241.......................1.1
Montgomery (MD).........1,004,476............,1,016,677.............12,201.......................1.2
Prince George's (MD)......881,419................890,081..............8,662........................1.0
Prince William (VA)..........430,100................438,580..............8,480........................2.0

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 63):
Another point of getting silver to Dulles is transportation for the 1000's who work at the airport.


MWAA expects a large contingent of employees to take the Metro out there. Infact I think they expect somewhere near a 50/50 split at the airport station.

[Edited 2014-03-28 20:07:03]

[Edited 2014-03-28 20:08:14]

User currently offlineYXwatcherMKE From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1026 posts, RR: 2
Reply 66, posted (9 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1584 times:

Granted that the majority of the MKE to WAS passengers O/D market is to DCA, but I do wonder how many passengers would do a MKE-IAD Flight for international transfers if such a flight operated by UA. I have yet to understand why UA does not operate such a flight. I know they are trying to make EWR the International transfer point on the east coast from MKE. There is only one problem with that. I don't like EWR as an airport to transfer through.I have used it 3 times now each time it was an experience I wish I could forget but that's not possible. Going out to London was not to bad only a 90 minute delay, the a/c arrived from where ever at the time we should have been leaving. On the return it was late by 30 minutes and the lines at customs were so long that we missed our connecting flight to MKE even though we still had almost 2 hours to get to the gate once off the inbound flight. The next two flights were full so we ended up staying overnight and getting out the next days 2nd flight to MKE. the other two trips were worse. My wife stated the next time we go overseas we will not use EWR. So needless to say I would love UA to add service to IAD and give us a option on International service on the East Coast, plus it gives us another option for service to Washington DC area since we are stuck with only one carrier with n/s service to the area.


I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
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