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Could LON-DXB Beat LON-NYC  
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1120 posts, RR: 1
Posted (2 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 9196 times:

With more than 13 direct flights between the two cities, would it be possible to beat the LON-NYC within the next 3 years.
There are 5 airlines working on this route. 2 from UK, 1 from Brunei, 1 Australia, 1 UAE.

47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9670 posts, RR: 52
Reply 1, posted (2 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 9141 times:

What do you mean by beat? LHR-DXB will never have the O/D that JFK-LHR has. JFK-LHR has significant demand because of close relationships between the city. O/D in Dubai is growing, but up to 70% of Emirates traffic is for connections. LHR-DXB is dominated by Emirates. As EK's network grows, I think their capacity will increase, but it is different than JFK-LHR which is sustained mostly on O/D traffic with far fewer connections.

So will LHR-DXB maybe have more passengers? Yes. Will it have more airlines? I doubt it.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offline1400mph From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2013, 1074 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8954 times:
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Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 1):
So will LHR-DXB maybe have more passengers? Yes. Will it have more airlines? I doubt it.

Not a chance even of more passengers.

http://www.flightstats.com/go/Flight...nes+--&codeshareDisplay=1&x=30&y=9

http://www.flightstats.com/go/Flight...es+--&codeshareDisplay=1&x=33&y=15

(plus the BA LCY services)

[Edited 2014-08-29 08:09:59]

User currently onlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5275 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8729 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
With more than 13 direct flights between the two cities, would it be possible to beat the LON-NYC within the next 3 years.

I think NYC-LHR has about 32 daily flights and most pax will be O&D, whereas on DXB-LHR I would say most pax would be transferring. It is only such a big market as the UK has failed to have a policy on aviation expansion so as a result we have seen smaller carriers leave LHR and the ME3 etc operating multiple flights to their hubs.

Lack of expansion at LHR has also seen UK regional travellers bypassing LHR in favour of AMD/CDG/DXB etc.


User currently offline1400mph From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2013, 1074 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8705 times:
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Quoting anstar (Reply 3):

For all the good it's done Air France-KLM at AMS and CDG.

IAG is about x4 AF market value.

[Edited 2014-08-29 08:51:44]

User currently offlineyowza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4900 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (2 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8345 times:

Never say never but no time soon. Take today as an example:



YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8499 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (2 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8127 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
With more than 13 direct flights between the two cities, would it be possible to beat the LON-NYC within the next 3 years.
There are 5 airlines working on this route. 2 from UK, 1 from Brunei, 1 Australia, 1 UAE.

If you're using NYC then a better comparison is LON-UAE. AUH and DXB aren't really that much different than JFK and EWR, and those lines will blur even more as traffic moves from DXB to DWC.

Quoting anstar (Reply 3):
I think NYC-LHR has about 32 daily flights and most pax will be O&D

Most? Do you know for sure? I wouldn't be that sure. Both are significant OneWorld hubs. Until the US merger it was AA's primary hub on the East Coast. Likewise for CO at EWR. NYC-LON has a huge amount of traffic indeed but I would be very reluctant saying that most passengers are O&D.


User currently offline1400mph From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2013, 1074 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8079 times:
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Quoting airbazar (Reply 6):

Why stop there.

If you're using LON-UAE let's also use LON-USA.

Honestly.


User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 8023 times:

I could see it in maybe 7 years but the A380s are more prevalent on the LON UAE route. You really have to measure it by overall seats. There are no 757s or 318's headed to UAE.

User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9670 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (2 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 7980 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 6):

Most? Do you know for sure? I wouldn't be that sure. Both are significant OneWorld hubs. Until the US merger it was AA's primary hub on the East Coast. Likewise for CO at EWR. NYC-LON has a huge amount of traffic indeed but I would be very reluctant saying that most passengers are O&D.

I think it is fair to say most. It would probably be more than 50% O/D. According to the latest statistics that I have seen, JFK is 82% O/D. LHR is 67% O/D. That means 18% could be connecting beyond JFK and 33% could be connecting beyond LHR. That adds up to 51% could be connecting, but I assume that there are some double connections in there, so JFK-LHR probably is more O/D than connection, but it is hard to say.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinefactsonly From Montserrat, joined Aug 2012, 958 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7900 times:

2013 Passenger numbers by route:

- LHR-AUH = 638 392 pax +9%
- LHR-DXB = 2 240 193 pax +14%
- LHR-JFK = 3 015 218 pax +6%
- LHR-EWR = 1 179 521 pax +1%

If this growth were to continue you can work it out for yourself.

Source: CAA UK


User currently offlinethenoflyzone From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2588 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7774 times:

Quoting factsonly (Reply 10):

If this growth were to continue you can work it out for yourself.

Can't really continue since EK has no additional slots at LHR.

Thenoflyzone



us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1120 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7678 times:

Quoting yowza (Reply 5):

WaW amazing table

Quoting airbazar (Reply 6):
Quoting 1400mph (Reply 7):

Or UK - UAE if u like.
Don't forget that the USA is the third most populated country in the world, the population soon will be 320 million, while the UAE is around 7 million. The more people you have in an open market country like the USA the more you need to travel overseas, especially while talking about the economy number 1.
It is also not fair to compare Dubai to New York interm of GDP, Dubai is $82 billion while NY $1.1 trillion.


User currently offlineba319-131 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 8562 posts, RR: 54
Reply 13, posted (2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7667 times:
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Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 11):
Can't really continue since EK has no additional slots at LHR.

- Nothing to stop them buying additional slots when they become avaliable though.



111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
User currently offlineslcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3574 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7628 times:

In o&d, no

In total number of passengers including connections, yes


User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1789 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (2 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7466 times:

Quoting factsonly (Reply 10):
2013 Passenger numbers by route:

- LHR-AUH = 638 392 pax +9%
- LHR-DXB = 2 240 193 pax +14%
- LHR-JFK = 3 015 218 pax +6%
- LHR-EWR = 1 179 521 pax +1%

If this growth were to continue you can work it out for yourself.

Source: CAA UK

Dont forget LGW-DXB, EK flies the route also.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11451 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (2 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 6152 times:
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Quoting factsonly (Reply 10):
- LHR-AUH = 638 392 pax +9%
- LHR-DXB = 2 240 193 pax +14%
- LHR-JFK = 3 015 218 pax +6%
- LHR-EWR = 1 179 521 pax +1%

The same way the traffic LHR-DXB grow based on connections, as numbers keep moving up, certain city pairs become able to support non-stops with greater advantages for passengers. Together with this, we will see in a few years a lot of new birds that may change the current environment.
In the other hand, JFK is a stable market, but will continue to grow as they represent the two Top Global Financial City Pair.
The risk associated to new city pairs, for JFK-LHR, is limited.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlinefactsonly From Montserrat, joined Aug 2012, 958 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4647 times:

Quoting migair54 (Reply 15):
Dont forget LGW-DXB, EK flies the route also.

- LHR-AUH = 638 392 pax +9%
- LHR-DXB = 2 240 193 pax +14%
- LGW-DXB = 716 636 pax +15%
- LHR-JFK = 3 015 218 pax +6%
- LCY-JFK = 22.075 pax + 0%
- LHR-EWR = 1 179 521 pax +1%

- BHX-DXB = 499.573 pax +5%
- BHX-EWR = 97.747 pax +5%

- MAN-DXB = 768.452 pax + 11%
- MAN-AUH = 324.592 pax + 12%
- MAN-JFK = 114.190 pax = +0%
- MAN-EWR = 113.841 pax = 1%

- GLA-DXB = 402.340 pax + 28%
- GLA-EWR = 103.131 pax + 7%

- NCL-DXB = 199.025 pax + 23%
- NCL-EWR = 881 pax +3%

TOTAL UK-USA = 17.486.374 pax +1%
TOTAL UK-UAE = 5.798.504 pax +14%

Source: CAA UK 2013


User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4316 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3848 times:

The answer is obvious. No. There are far more airlines and alot larger markets connecting through NYC. Plus, you have EWR to throw in the mix. My preferred NYC area airport. Add it all up and there you have it. NYC-LON demolishes DXB-LON.


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlinePEK777 From China, joined Jun 2012, 151 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (2 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3841 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
would it be possible to beat the LON-NYC within the next 3 years

Not sure if serious, or trolling....


User currently offlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2516 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (2 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3782 times:

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 1):
LHR-DXB will never have the O/D that JFK-LHR has
Quoting anstar (Reply 3):
I think NYC-LHR has about 32 daily flights and most pax will be O&D
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 9):
JFK is 82% O/D. LHR is 67% O/D.
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 14):
In o&d, no

I don' t understand this fixation on O&D vs transfer here. IMHO, the opening poster (OP) asked a perfectly valid question, leading up to an interesting discussion on the number of passengers between LHR and NYC/DXB. A passenger is a passenger, O&D or transferring, they are using the same seat on the LHR-NYC/DXB route . . .
While I also find the transfer discussion quite interesting, it was not the intent of this OP, so I do not see the need to add that here.

Quoting 1400mph (Reply 7):
If you're using LON-UAE let's also use LON-USA.

While I can understand the argument to add AUH to the DXB total, although I agree is somewhat of a stretch, I do not see any logic at ALL to include the whole of USA. Have you ever looked at the distance (both in km/sm/nm and in hrs flying time) between JFK and LAX or ANC HNL for that matter.
One could also argue that DXB and AUH pretty much serving same market for the most part (hmmm, this is where the transfer discussion fits in, perhaps that now does make sense after all . . . ).


Rgds,
PW100



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
User currently offlinethenoflyzone From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2588 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (2 months 1 day ago) and read 3491 times:

Quoting PW100 (Reply 20):

I disagree. Even though the OP never mentioned the word "market", that is exactly what should be considered to make an accurate comparison. Therefore, we need to take into account O&D, by which standard, NYC blows DXB (and DWC for that matter) out of the water.

And no, AUH and DXB are not the same market. So they should not be considered as one.

JFK-EWR is 21 miles apart, while AUH-DXB is nearly 4 times that.

If we are talking about the "markets" of LON-NYC vs LON-DXB, then it's all about PDEW between each city pairs.

Either way, even with connections, Dubai cant catch up to NYC anytime soon.....

Thenoflyzone



us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8499 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (2 months 1 day ago) and read 3417 times:

Quoting 1400mph (Reply 7):

Why stop there.

If you're using LON-UAE let's also use LON-USA.

Honestly.

Now you're being ridiculous. No one is going to drive from Seattle to JFK to catch a flight to London. However has Dubai and Abu Dhabi expand towards each other's border you're likely to end up with a giant metro area not unlike London and New York.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 9):

I think it is fair to say most. It would probably be more than 50% O/D. According to the latest statistics that I have seen, JFK is 82% O/D. LHR is 67% O/D.

Most airlines operating to LHR and JFK don't have a hub there so of course the airports will have a large O&D component. But most of those airlines are also not flying LON-NYC.


User currently offlineS75752 From United States of America, joined Apr 2014, 490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (2 months 1 day ago) and read 3360 times:

My first thought when I read the thread title was LCY-DXB.

...Could we see that at some point soon?


User currently offlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2516 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (2 months 23 hours ago) and read 3047 times:

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 21):
I disagree. Even though the OP never mentioned the word "market", that is exactly what should be considered to make an accurate comparison. Therefore, we need to take into account O&D, by which standard, NYC blows DXB (and DWC for that matter) out of the water.

I don't follow, I don't understand.

The OP is just interested in the TOTAL (total = O&D + Transfer) pax numbers between LHR-NYC and LHR-DXB. He does not care if that split in O&D and transfer is 20%, 30% or 80%, or whatever. While certainly interesting, he did not ask for the % of O&D vs % transfer.

Of course, when looking at future growth, it is important to consider and evaluate both metrics (O&D and Transfer), but he did not ask if NYC/DXB will beat one another on one of those metrics. He is not interested at one of those metrics in isolation; he is looking at TOTAL. He is interested if DXB will beat (blow out the water, to use your phrase) NYC in TOTAL.

Apparently, somehow it must be seriously important to you (and others) to change to OP question in such a way that the deliverable measurement is changed to a number where NYC blows/continues to blow DXB out of the water. Again, I can't understand why one of the metrics in isolation is so important, when the mix was not part of the original question.

He is just asking for the number of passengers between LHR-NYC and LHR-DXB, and if the DXB numbers at some point in time can beat NYC. How hard can it be . . . ?



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
25 PW100 : Agree. One wonders whether some actually bother to look at an old fashioned (non-electronic) map . . . Wow, I'm really starting to feel like an old f
26 1400mph : What are you talking about ? We're just talking about London NYC and Dubai. You decided to include the United Arab Emirates in its 2 hub entirety. I
27 scbriml : Unlikely for a scheduled service - the runway at LCY is just too short and the approach tricky. The biggest plane operating in/out of there is BA's A
28 1400mph : I think LCY long haul is a one trick pony in the same way that Concorde was a one trick pony. It's the nature of London and New York and their financ
29 Post contains images PW100 : Apologies if I came over too sharp. However I still strongly feel that translating DXB/AUH to NYC-->USA is quite a stretch, to put it very mildly.
30 1400mph : Don't worry about it. The 3 hours difference I was referring to LHR/JFK opposed LHR/SEA. Been to DXB and AUH on numerous occasions. Pourquoi ?[Edited
31 traindoc : To UAEFlyer, I did not believe that the U.S. is the third most populous country in the world. However, according to Wikipedia, indeed we are number 3
32 UAEflyer : Thanks for contributing into this topic I believe same apply for India too, with many airlines serving multiple cities there, and some are sending th
33 planesmart : I must be one too. How does a simple post get derailed by the devil of detail?
34 Viscount724 : I disagree. There's a big difference when you're talking about 2 airports 63 nm apart in a country that's smaller than 39 of the 50 U.S. states.
35 brilondon : You don't fly direct from LCY to JFK, you have to make a fuel stop at SNN. So are they going to make a fuel stop at say Manston or some foreign airpo
36 1400mph : I'm quite happy for you to start a new topic entitled 'Could LON-UAE beat LON-NYC ?' Seeing as two are cities and one is a country though I'm not sur
37 TWA772LR : NYC-LON has at least 5 carriers (UA, AA, DL, BA, VA). 6 If you include PHL, which is less than 100 miles from NYC. DXB-LON only has three, with, witho
38 gemuser : Probably not. Without looking at the performance docs one can't be sure but it can probably be done non stop in both directions. LCY-JFK is the limit
39 1400mph : I'm not sure you could fill adequately an A318 ( or similar ) daily business class only ( that's the only way it would be profitable ) service betwee
40 TeamInTheSky : Thanks for the info factsonly. It will be interesting to see Norwegian's numbers next year for LGW - JFK...
41 UAEflyer : I would say it is very easy to fill a daily A318 from DXB to LCY, first of DP world have a massive movement of their executives between Dubai & L
42 1400mph : I have an idea why Qatar is 'currently' using a relatively small narrow body jet on a valuable Heathrow slot.... I'm not denying there are vast comme
43 thereckoner : Maybe you should look at the schedules, DXB-LON has 5 carriers: - BA - x2 - Virgin x1 - Qantas x2 - Emirates x8 - Royal Brunei x1 That's 14 frequenci
44 1400mph : There is a problem with this as it is rather disingenuous. What percentage of the passengers in DXB and AUH are remaining in the UAE once they arrive
45 VV701 : The problem is where to draw the line. AUH is 72 miles from DXB. But SOU is only 53 miles from LHR, And BHX is, at 87 miles from LHR, only a little f
46 Viscount724 : But what's the relevance whether DXB and AUH are in the same country and whether passengers to DXB/AUH are connecting beyond to other countries? Many
47 QatarA340 : It takes 40 minutes to get from AUH to Dubai Marina, and 50 minutes to Burj Khalifa. How many minutes does it take to get from Fifth Avenue to EWR? o
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