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United Europe: One Or Two Carriers?  
User currently offlineCanadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1455 times:

Do any of you feel that, in time, once the European
Union is more firmly established, that Europe will be left with one or two major carriers? In my opinion, this theory is feasable, and it would be likely that the "leaders" of these new European Carriers would be British Airways and Lufthansa, and perhaps, Air France.

What are your thoughts and theories on this?

Canadi>nBoy
YYZ

18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineB737-700 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1388 times:


No don't think so with all the government aids they get when they are really in deep trouble.
There'll be more. Also only 3 airlines would be bad since they would charge higher prices.


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 2, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1375 times:

No way, keep it like it is. We are all Europeans but with each their own culture. Can you imagine a flight from Madrid to Sevilla operated by Lufthansa or German European Airlines? Or a flight from Athens to Vienna operated by Euro British Airways? Forget that! They can form huge alliances in wich each keep their own identity, but it would not be wise to rename everything to 2 or 3 airlines.


SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
User currently offlineCanadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1373 times:

Gentlemen, if I may say, bear in mind a vast majority of European carriers are losing money, and have been in the red even prior to Sept 11. Say for instance, British Airways and KLM go ahead with their merger talks, and they form one entity. Right there, you'd have a pretty huge carrier that would provide fierce competition to smaller European carriers. The merged BA/KLM, along with Lufthansa and Air France, would be major forces to reckon with. Never say never!  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Canadi>nBoy
YYZ


User currently offlineScotty From UK - Scotland, joined Dec 1999, 1875 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1363 times:

All the flag carriers will eventually disappear, once more budget airlines really get going. Airlines will just be European and will have a number of hubs across the continent, whilst the big, single hub carriers will be undercut by them. BA, KLM, etc have been ripping us all off for years in the name of being "flag carriers".

Scotty


User currently offlineB737-700 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1359 times:


Well not all airlines should stay around but some. I don't think all the small countries that don't even have a domestic market are necessary. At least not for longhauls. Also some other may go but there still should be a couple airlines around.


User currently offlineBCal DC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 723 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1362 times:

Canadi>nboy... interesting topical point.
My thoughts...

in a recent interview on tv, Rod Eddington said that he firmly believed Europe would be left with 3 mega carriers... obviously the 3 current biggest... BA, LH and AF. The rest would be absorbed by them, or form small regional carriers serving Euro routes only, leaving the big ones to deal with Intercontinental stuff.

I agree... its only a matter of time and its happening already. If countries are prepared to give up their currencies, then I don't think they're going to lose too much sleep about their national airlines... especially if they're state owned and cash guzzling millstones...
The days of the flag carrier are numbered... imo.


User currently offlineTransSwede From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1000 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1359 times:

Why would there be only "one or two" major carriers left in Europe?

Are there only one or two major carriers in the U.S.? If anything, there will probably always be more (but smaller) airlines in Europe, due to the diverse culture and geography of Europe.


User currently offlineCanadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 1355 times:

Bcal DC-10, I agree with you 100%. Plus, for those who stated they felt the "flag" carriers would dissapear, this too is feasable. After all, if BA, LH, and Af, for example, controlled the entire Euro market, they would have to re-establish their overall identity, representing the European Union, not their Flag nations.

Canadi>nBoy
YYZ


User currently offlineJaws707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 708 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1340 times:

Instead of only 2 or 3 megacarrier airlines I think there might be a little consolidation. The idea that SAS has in it being a Scandinavian carrier instead of 3 individual airlines is great and I think more countries that are similair should do the same. An example of what I mean would be something like LOT Polish and Austrian Airways merging. Just a though though because I know they are very different in terms of fleets and the like.

User currently offlineBCal DC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 723 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1324 times:

I still think there is room for the likes of Scandanavian and LOT etc, but its inevitable that some will vanish and be absorbed by the larger carriers... I'd hate to guess which incase I offend anyone here.... but some will stay and form solid european carriers.

User currently offlineCanadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1325 times:

You raised an excellent example by mentioning SAS. Their overall business plan/mandate was well ahead of the current and future European avaiation industry climate. However, airlines such as LOT and Austrian, for example, merging, would still not stand a chance against the aggressive forces of BA, LH, and AF. The way I see it, and again, this is trictly my opinion, the
move to see European Union go ahead at full force would involve every aspect of the business community, including of course, the commercial aviation industry.

Bcal DC-10 raised a good point when he stated that if European nations are quick to relinquish their individual currencies, in the name of EU, then they would not put up much resistance to the implementation of 2 or 3 mega carriers. To me, it just wouldn't make sense to have the current number of European flag carriers in existence. And as I stated before, these EU carriers would be representative of the EU as a whole, not
the U.K., Germany, and France.

I would be absolutely surprised if matters did not progress within the EU to the point where, in the near future, this did not come to pass.

Just my thoughts.
Canadi>nBoy
YYZ


User currently onlineSQ325 From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 1455 posts, RR: 7
Reply 12, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1322 times:

Carriers like Iberia, Allitalia, LOT or CSA s.o. will be downgraded to regional carriers in the next 15years.
Carriers like Lufthansa British Airways and Air France will execute most of the inter continental routes.
I don't like this vision but that's jow the future will be.

regards SQ


User currently offlineLindy field From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 3131 posts, RR: 13
Reply 13, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1316 times:
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What makes you think Europe is anything like Canada? The population of united Europe dwarfs that of Canada or Australia which don't seem capable of supporting many large airlines. Hell, the EU has more people than the USA. Just because mismanaged and perenially unprofitable airlines like Sabena fail doesn't mean that TAP or Finnair should as well.

You also seem to have forgotten that pan-European low-fare carriers will spring up. Why shouldn't there be a few Ryanairs and Easyjets along with a few surviving major carriers and a few surviving charter carriers?

Why should the "regional" carriers disappear? They can work perfectly well within the alliances and still retain something of their local/national/regional identity.

I think the idea of just two or three European carriers rather silly.


User currently offlineCanadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1306 times:

Who is comparing Canada to the EU? Who even mentioned it? I'm merely refering to a trend, which like it or not, has already started on the European continent. The EU, as it gains strength and clearer definitions, is going to, without a doubt, implement mega changes in European politics (obviously), economics, culture, etc. Inter-European migration is already underway big time. Every cause has an effect, and vice versa. I still stand by my OPINION that I strongly feel, within 10 years, cultural differentation
in the EU will be greatly reduced. Look around you, It's started already. I was born in Europe, and travel to various European cities at least 12 times a year, and believe me, I can see dramatic changes, changes that would have shocked my grandparents and great-grandparents. These changes have gained incredible momentum within the past 5 years to the point where the culturally divided Europe of 1990 bears little resemblance to the EU of 2001/02.

All this, beleive it or not, has a direct tie to the current and future economic climate of the EU commercial aviation industry. And there are many European economic experts who have stated the fact that they
undoubtedly feel Europe, within 10 years, will have 2 or 3 mega EUROPEAN carriers. This, they feel, and I agree, will be one of the direct results of the emerging "European Melting Pot".

Again, please don't flame me, these are merely my opinions and observations.

Sincerely
Canadi>nBoy
YYZ




User currently offlineBCal DC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 723 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 1304 times:

I think you're missing the point.
BA's chief exec made it quite clear a few weeks ago.
Consolidation has to happen, if we're to move forward.

Lets try this for size....
BA, LH and AF will emerge as the large global intercontinental frilly carriers.
SleasyJet and Ryanair will be the force in no frills tat we see at the moment. Buzz and Go will be absorbed by either of the other two. We don't have room for 4 no frills carriers in 2010.

Iberia and Air Portugal will merge and link the Iberian peninsula with BA Euro hub in AMS (created after BA took over KLM). Which will link in with the intercontinental hub in LHR, serving the rest of the world.
Finnair (a fine airline, and as you so rightly highlighted), would probably link in with the likes of SAS and Icelandair and serve cold countries... (U know who).
AlItalia, Austrian, Olympic, Swissair would probably still operate under some guize but with strong links with the 3 megacarriers and feed international pax to them... and vice versa depending on alliances.
LH and AF would have their own ties connected with their own alliances... and form their own euro and international hubs. eg Star etc.

Thats how I see consolidation.
IMHO. Nothing more...


User currently offlineTWFirst From Vatican City, joined Apr 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 51
Reply 16, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 1291 times:

Manni said:

"No way, keep it like it is. We are all Europeans but with each their own culture. Can you imagine a flight from Madrid to Sevilla operated by Lufthansa or German European Airlines? Or a flight from Athens to Vienna operated by Euro British Airways? Forget that!"



Actually, this happened in America a long time ago and our aviation system survived and flourished just fine. You can fly from Memphis to Miami or Detroit to Amsterdam on "Northwest Airlines" (so named because it was founded in Minnesota, considered part of the Northwest for a couple hundred years, and the airline focused on the Northwest U.S.) Similarly, you can fly from Islip to Baltimore on "Southwest Airlines" (so named because it was founded in Texas). And, in another twist of airline name nonsense, until its demise, "Trans World" Airlines operated most of its flights domestically through its hub in St. Louis.


Now, I understand that national airline names are a little different situation, but my point is that it might be hard right now to imagine Lufthansa operating an intra-Spain flight as Europeans are still in the process of shifting their mindset to thinking of themselves as "Europeans" rather than just "French" or "Spanish". However, given time, national airlines evolving into trans-European airlines won't seem so strange. Actually, how would Lufthansa operating a Seville to Barcelona flight be any stranger than when Pan American used to fly intra-Europe flights? Or Northwest flying from Amsterdam to Delhi?



An unexamined life isn't worth living.
User currently offlineBCal DC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 723 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (13 years 1 month 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 1279 times:

in a sense TWFirst, you're quite right.
I had my secretary book me a flight yesterday for a meeting next week in Edinburgh...
So a flight from LHR to EDI non stop... operated by LH. Eh? Lufthansa from LHR to EDI???? but its on a BMI plane. Codeshare... Its happening already... so this culture argument is complete crap. At the end of the day, when travelling in Europe you want non stop, a good price, reliability and convenience. At the end of the day, I don't give a rats left knacker if its LH, BA or whoever. I'm not going to fret about culture.


User currently offlineJohnnybgoode From Germany, joined Jan 2001, 2187 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (13 years 1 month 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1259 times:

i do agree that consolidation will come sooner or later, but let´s make one step after the other.

in my opinion, there is certainly no reason why they would only be some major carriers left. there will be many regional carriers, many charter carriers and other airlines which, imho, will undoubtedly by tied to the alliances one way or the other.

i don´t know exactly who on this topic is from Europe, but from a European point a view, i want to tell you that in my eyes over here we´re still far, far away from Europe being one entity. it´s years away before the EU will be comparable to the USA and so comparing the EU with USA doesn´t still fit the picture. there are so many points which are different between the USA and the EU as a whole, some of them i will point out in this post.

sure, in two months most countries of the EU will have just one and the same currency (f.e. except the UK!!!) but that´s, according to politicians, due to financial and economical reasons and it makes life much easier in such a small place.
f.e. i live 5 minutes from France, 45 minutes from Luxemburg, 3 hours from Belgium and the Netherlands, 12 hours from Spain and Poland, 6 from Switzerland, 9 from Italy, and so on, and that´s all by car!!! so there are so many different cultures, languages and currencies and whatsoever on such a small place and you can´t compare this to USA, at least not for many years to come.
granted, Europe has more inhabitants than the USA but it´s still much more diverse.
i believe in airline consolidation in Europe as well, but it will take some time. however, i agree that the current aviation crisis could speed up consolidation but i don´t think it´s gonna happen as it was projected in some statements above.
most things from the USA if it´s McDonald´s, Coke and Pepsi, GAP, Hollywood and whatelse will finally come to Europe but most Europeans still take it differently.
remember that many Europeans enjoy mayonaise on their french fries which is a nightmare to the Americans!!!

take for example the european star carriers, Lufthansa, Austrian, SAS, bmi, Spaniar (i know that JK is not a partner).
there are so many destinations which currently seem couldn´t be served profitably by SAS, bmi, OS, f.e. DXB, GRU, HKG, and many, many others.
in this regard i would expect that these airlines will concentrate feeding pax of such destinations to their bigger partner Lufthansa which already operates to such destinations and thus can increase services and provide more convenient travel choices to the traveler.
other major destinations such as NYC, ORD, NRT can easily be served by the other carriers as well but in my opinion it makes no sense if AUA serves some three times a week, SAS two times a week, LH goes there four times (i would no particular example to this case, this is just to point out what i wanna say).
instead, they would pool their pax on one carrier (in other cases i wouldn´t have necessarily to be LH) and thus could reduce costs and risks.
i do agree, that would make some airlines such as BA, AF and LH even stronger but in the end, i would assume that carriers such as SAS, IB, AY, AZ would be partially owned by their respective alliance "mother" airlines thus creating a more consolidated airline industry which would be still more diverse than in the USA.

that´s how i could imagine it for next couple of years. just an idea, and that´s certainly not the end of the game but i don´t think we should rush to conclusions.
we´ll see where it goes...

cheers
daniel



If only pure sweetness was offered, why's this bitter taste left in my mouth.
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