Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
US Major Most Likely To Go Bankrupt?  
User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5322 times:

Which of the US majors is most likely to go bankrupt in the next year or so.
CO have made profits for a while but I'm not sure they have too many assets,USAirways has a high cost structure,is losing money likes there's no tomorrow and are suffering from the decrease in passenger numbers accross the Atlantic.
United can't fill their 744's regularly and are planning on parking upto 12 I believe.


36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5831 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5190 times:

It's a hard call.

AA and United are in BAD BAD shape. United has four BRAND NEW 777s that just rolled off the line... but they are having engines removed nd being moth balled for long term storage. not good.

AA is bad- retiring all 717s and 727s... selling new 737s to Qantas... parking 777s...

They are hurting the worst, BUT- they also have the most room for bad times.

Continental, Northwest, AmWest, MidEx, are ALL in though shape I'd say.

So, in conclusion, I would say the first one to go will probably be AmWest.

But I wouldn't be surprise if AA or UA eventually went bust.

Randy


User currently offlineUsairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5170 times:

i think usairways will be the first to go, they lost over 1 billion dollars last year. something tells me that if they keep losing money they will be gone before you know it.

User currently offlineJeff G From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 436 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 5156 times:

A tie: America West and US Airways. I don't think either one will be around in 2004. I hope I'm wrong. United may file bankruptcy this year, but will survive in the long run. AA can take care of itself, in spite of the hard times it's had lately. DL, NW, CO, SW, and AL will all be OK.


User currently offlineAA_Cam From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5112 times:

American had plans to totally retire its 727 fleet due to age before Sept 11, that is a non-factor in this argument (they're actually better-off without them). And as for the 717's they were also a temporarily held aircraft (aquired along with TWA), with intentions of complete liquidation were decided before sept 11. Now as for the 777's being parked, I cannot come up with a valid explaination for that, except fiscal requirements.

Cameron


User currently offlineCiro From Brazil, joined Aug 1999, 662 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 5084 times:

US Airways has the worst financial shape. It will either go bankrupt or become a mega regional feeder carrier for a larger airline.

I will go for the first option!



The fastest way to become a millionaire in the airline business is to start as a billionaire.
User currently offlineHoffa From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5057 times:

I think United is losing the most money at the moment...they are, like every other airline literally haemorraging cash although loads are improving (yields are still horrendous though) but again this is the same story at every other airline.

United seems more exposed due to their huge Asian, European, and Latin American presence (business traffic has tumbled precipitously).

But so far all the airlines except America West have been reluctant to sign up for US Government backed loans because it means signing away control/shares of your airline to the government, in effect nationalizing it.


User currently offlineArsenal@LHR From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2001, 7792 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5040 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I'd say United, they look in a desperate shape. Hope i'm wrong though. The day UA or AA goes bust for good, will be a very very sad day.  Crying

Arsenal@LHR



In Arsene we trust!!
User currently offlineBrains From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 259 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5035 times:

US, AW, UA are the airlines in the worst shape. CO, DL, WN, NW will do alright. AA is a toss-up.


Brains
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4200 posts, RR: 37
Reply 9, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4950 times:

If United continues losing money at the rate it is now, it will be out of money by March.

US Airways and American are pretty close behind.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 4936 times:

I'll be a ray of sunshine and predict that none of the majors will fail in the foreseeable future. They'll all get through this rough period, battered but still standing.
I'll base this on two factors:
1) Memories of September 11 will fade, and fear of flying will start to recede.
2) The economy seems to be on the mend, which will translate into increased business travel and better yields.



"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineAWA22 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 4906 times:

This is why I do not think America West will go bankrupt anytime in the near future. We have secured over 400 million in loans and 600 million from various concessions from venders and other bussiness partners. This funding will help keep HP around well into the future.

User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 4892 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Even the most generous of loans have to be repaid at one point or another... and if there's no money to pay the loan, you have a problem. America West has no profits to use to pay the loans, and nothing left to put up as collateral to borrow more money.

Combine that with labor trouble, governmental meddling as a result of ceding 33% of the airline (and some operational control), low yields, poor public perception, etc... and you have a real mess.


User currently offlineILUV767 From United States of America, joined May 2000, 3141 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 4877 times:

Regarding United Airlines. I doubt that they will go bankrupt. When Jim Goodwin announced that UA would go bankrupt, people forgot that he said "if we keep loosing money at this rate." Right now, United is loosing close to 1 million a day...not 13 million a day when Goodwin made that statement. It has been going down since Novemeber.

Currently, there are four 747s in storage. The other 40 747s are flying the line. Most of them are sent to Asia, or the south pacific once a day. Most of the flights to Asia are going out full/oversold in all cabins.

I saw the pictures of the 777s at PAE, and the deal with those are that there are not enough 777 engines for 777s. They are being put on an "out of service" status, not "stored" status. United has not yet stored a single 777, like it has with the 747. Just to set the record straight.

United's average load factor is around 77% compared to 68% at most other carriers. They also cut more flights post september 11th, but kept the ones at the peak periods. They have cut east-west redeyes as they get in after midnight/1am. They kept west-east red-eyes as they arrive early in the morning.

United is also taking delivery of new Airbusses. Sadly, these planes are going to Ansett for two years. On the plus side, United is making a lot of money by doing this. At the moment, they do not need the extra busses, so leasing them out is a good move for UA.

So, whats wrong with United? Well, United is loosing around 1 million a day. Our average load factor is not high enough, and the premium cabin yeilds are not as high as they once were. United also has to pay its labor force more than any other carrier. Expect pay cuts to come before summer from all employee groups, especially ALPA.

As a cost saving measure, United is starting to contract out many more flights to its Express carriers. SkyWest is opening up a RJ hubs in SFO, LAX and DEN. AirWisconsin RJs are being spotted several times aday in LAX to assist SkyWest. New routes are going to Express that were once shuttle. Where 737s would go out empty to places like SBA and BOI, RJs are now/soon going to these markets. Many of the ex Shuttle routes are going to Express. While the thoughts of an hour in an RJ is not the most pleasent, it saves the company tons of money.

To fix the problems, United fired Jim Goodwin as its CEO and hired Jack Creighton who is accepting no pay for his job, just stock options.

To reduce costs, routes are going to RJs, service items are being cut/reduced, and non-ecential flights are being cut.

A positive effort is being made so that United will fly you where you need to go when you need to go. West to east transcons depart around 11am, for an evening arrival. East coast to west coast transcons leave in the evening for nightime arrivals. Connecting flights to Latin America, Europe, Asia and the South Pacific meet these flights.

United still has one of the best route maps, and has some of the strongest alliance partners. They still offer a award winning product, even with the service cuts. As more and more people begin to fly, sources tell me that by April, United will have a positive cash flow.

I L U V 7 6 7


User currently offlinePrinair From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 744 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 4845 times:

Flashmeister....

WRONG

Get your facts in order before providing wrong information about HP.



PRINAIR : Puerto Rico International Airlines
User currently offlineBNE From Australia, joined Mar 2000, 3183 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 4826 times:

I guess would be US Airways, maybe not go broke completely but a major downsizing may be necessary.
Does any no how big Eastern were when they stop flying. Who picked up all there passengers. Seems inconvincable a large carrier can go broke, but Ansett did it so it can happen to anyone.



Why fly non stop when you can connect
User currently offlineElchanan From Norway, joined Sep 2001, 60 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 4791 times:

What's with the government loans deal anyway? Isn't this the first time the US Government becomes partial owner of any of the airlines? Is this even valid according to American law? I understand that the situation caused by Sept.11 is extremely special, but I should think that any government involvement would be temporary and only in the form of loans - without actually buying shares of a company. Or is the government really getting into the business of aviation? Please help me out getting the facts straight here...
elchanan


User currently offlineGreg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 4768 times:

USAir and/or America West.
AA and UA should have enough cash for a bit.


User currently offlineLowfareair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 4739 times:

>>United is loosing close to 1 million a day...not 13 million a day when Goodwin made that statement. It has been going down since Novemeber.<<

The $1,000,000/day was during the holiday season. This is that dull, slow period where no one flies all that much until President's day weekend.


User currently offlineZrs70 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 3174 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 4687 times:

Let's get our codes straight!

America West = HP (AW does not exist)
Southwest = WN (SW does not exist)



14 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2013
User currently offlineHoffa From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4671 times:

According to this Reuters report of 20 Jan 2002, United is still losing $15 MILLION daily according to the Presidential Emergency Board which is studying the issue of pay rises for UAL mechanics:

http://reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=MY0GPD0X3JQ2ECRBAEKSFFAKEEARMIWD?type=businessnews&StoryID=530160

A $15 Million cash burn rate is significantly higher than than what AA, CO, DL, or US are losing. ILUV767 mentioned their high exposure to international flying which is precisely the problem to start with.

I have heard rumors that UA will be filing for bankruptcy later this week! Can anybody confirm?


User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4161 posts, RR: 36
Reply 21, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4659 times:

SW does exist, that´s the code of Air Namibia.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4200 posts, RR: 37
Reply 22, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4643 times:

ILUV767.... that stuff that iheard about united is recent.. they were doing a bit better i think for a short while.. but they really need to make some big changes to keep their head above the water. Its really sad.


Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4629 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Get your facts in order before providing wrong information about HP.

Prinair...

Perhaps you care to refute my arguments rather than just saying I'm wrong?


User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Reply 24, posted (12 years 8 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 4608 times:

USAirways aren't even that big so for them to lose 1 billion smackers is saying something.Even pre Sep11 how were their yields doing?
Donder10


25 NWA ARJ : I think NW will do just fine. It is a toss up between UA, AA, AM West, and USAir. Hard to tell which will go first
26 2cn : Zrs70-AW may not be the code for America West, but it is shorthand for America West.. not everyone knows the codes, and rather then typing the full na
27 2cn : oh and Prinair, Flashmeister is correct at least with the loans. There comes a time when the loans are due for repayment, and if the airline hasnt bee
28 Artsyman : AA isn't going anywhere, nor are Delta, they are both in pretty decent financial shape to weather out this storm, I would say that Continental are goi
29 A330300 : "When Jim Goodwin announced that UA would go bankrupt, people forgot that he said "if we keep loosing money at this rate." Right now, United is loosin
30 UALfa@jfk : What I'm not understanding is how on earth is UA still carrying a cash burn of $15 mill/day when, since Goodwin made that announcement, UA has since..
31 DouglasDC8 : UALfa@jfk-you make a good point. In addition to the cuts that you have mentioned, United has yet to realize the cost savings from the pilot layoff. As
32 AIR757200 : The press cash-burn numbers are very exaggerated. Don't believe everything you hear. Anyone notice that the airlines are not really reporting their d
33 AA737-823 : Someone responded to my original statement that AA had plans to retire both 727s and 717s before 9-11 hit. While that is true, they did NOT have plans
34 Dash8tech : Another thing to realize about US Air dropping 1 Billion in the 4th quarter is that their biggest hub is Reagan National. Shut down Atlanta, Houston,
35 AWA22 : HP has not been having problems paying the aircraft lease payments. Parker has said that the lease payments will be paid by the due dates. Also HP has
36 Lowfareair : >>Another thing to realize about US Air dropping 1 Billion in the 4th quarter is that their biggest hub is Reagan National.
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Alitalia, About To Go Bankrupt? posted Tue Jan 24 2006 23:23:28 by PipoA380
Top Ten Signs Your Airline Is About To Go Bankrupt posted Fri Sep 23 2005 22:58:22 by STLGph
FR Destinations Most Likely To Re-appear? posted Fri Feb 25 2005 12:11:57 by Richardw
Which Manufacturer You Most Likely To See At LHR? posted Wed Aug 11 2004 21:17:07 by EZYAirbus
Which US Carrier Is Next To Go? posted Sun Mar 21 2004 01:53:26 by Thrust
Which Low-fare Airline Is Most Likely To Succeed? posted Sat Aug 16 2003 16:38:42 by Tommy767
Is Qantas Likely To Go For 737NG Or A320? posted Thu Aug 16 2001 19:42:23 by Tupolev154B2
Sabena To Go Bankrupt Any Second Now posted Fri Feb 2 2001 18:10:33 by Singapore_Air
Which US Airline Offers The Most Flights To Italy? posted Tue Feb 7 2006 05:08:18 by Deltasju777
What Most Likely With Happen To NWA posted Sun Feb 5 2006 03:35:16 by Flywithjohn