LV From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 2020 posts, RR: 0 Posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1042 times:
I hate to think about this but lets say US Airways takes the big flight to the sky and joins Eastern, TWA and the others. What do you think will happen to their assets?
Here are my theories, feel free to tell me why I am wrong or right, either way.
CLT- This is obviously a very strong hub for the Southeast. Who ever gets this could go head to head with DL for Southeast supremecy so:
DL- No way, they have ATL
NW- Doubt it, they have MEM
UA- I know that CLT was supposed to be the big thing UA wanted but I think IAD works fine as a Southeast hub for them.
AA- Doubt it, if they wanted a Southeast hub they have RDU and BNA waiting, but they have pulled out of both of them. MIA is not a Southeast hub, lets be honest here
CO- Maybe, if anyone wants CLT as a hub it would be these guys. They don't have a southeast hub and they hung tough for a while at places like HHH, DAB & MLB. That makes me think they would be the most likely to take CLT and try to break DL's dominence of the Southeast
CLT Conclusion- If someone wants it, its going to be CO. Even if they don't want it as a hub, they could still use it as a focus city. All the other guys would ramp up operations at CLT to pick up the slack that US will leave behind. I could even see WN coming in at that point.
UA- No, to close to IAD, no use to them
CO- To close to EWR and CLE
AA-I don't think there is enough O&D to make it worth it to them
Air Tran- Focus City? Yes, Hub? They better stick to ATL for a while.
DL- I see them going somewhere else, as you will see later in this post.
NW- What started this topic is the idea that somebody proposed on another thread that NW might want PIT as a Northeast hub. Noble idea with merit. But I think DTW can act as a Northeast hub for them and you have its partner CO just up the road at EWR. Still, it would be interesting to see.
HP- If DL keeps trying to drive them out of Columbus they could jump at the oppurtunity for a fresh start in a new hub. Of course that is given that they get serious about having an east coast operation
PIT Conclusion- NW is a maybe, but doubtful. Same story for HP, maybe but doubtful. Probably just a focus city for Air Tran and a ramp up for the majors. Not enough O&D for anyone but the big guys.
To close to places like IAD, BWI, DCA, EWR, JFK and such. All I see is a ramp up by the other guys but no one taking the hub.
DCA & LGA
I combined the two of these because I see only one other line that is a position to take these two key places, and that is DL.
Disclaimer- I am not an expert on who has what engines, maybe you guys could help me out.
MD 80s- to the desert
737- probably also to the desert unless WN wants to pick up some second hands for a quick expansion. Anyone else that you could think of that wants a quick expansion with 737s?
757-Maybe AA if they don't buy brand new, if AA doesn't want them, then they could go anywhere in the world
767-Secondhand to a smaller European or African carrier, or the desert
A319- If they engines are compatible, I say Frontier or NW, NW espically if the PIT theory is wright
A320- If compatible, NW (see the 319), UA, HP or maybe Jetblue if they ever get off their only new kick
A330- NW, they are the only ones I could imagine
Of course there will be a lot of destinations dropped, all the ones in Kansas, a lot of the ones in the northeast. But hey, thats what happens with airline shakeups like this.
Interesting side note, for IND fans, I ready on Indystar.com that US is the largest carrier at IND by # of boardings with 15%, WN is seond with 14% and ATA is third with 12%, I figured ATA would be number one and United number two, but hey, I was wrong.
B764 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 767 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1005 times:
I would love to see CO come to CLT. CLT has a number of destinations to the caribbean that could rival AA's out of MIA. B764's or B762's to LGW, CDG, FRA. New Intl. terminal being built. Maybe throw in a 777 to LGW or the best route. B753 & B752 traffic to IAH and EWR. Why does CO stick with CLE anyway. From what I've heard and read the authority running the airport is crooked and they charge CO & WN extremely high rates. Besides, with the alliance with NW, DTW could handle everything shifted from CLE. Whatever happens, Charlotte may want to think about expansion without US. I'd love to see them stay, but I'd also like lots of competition and low fares!
ILUV767 From United States of America, joined May 2000, 3142 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 990 times:
Interesting Views, but I have to disagree...
IAD for a United hub is hardly a hub. It is more of a gateway to Europe as well as a north-south connecting point. IAD is definaltly the secondary airport for the D.C. area and it does not handle the same volume of connections for United that it could if it were in a specific region.
CLT is in a perfict location for south east connections to the south east. Passengers traveling from a certain souther city would fly to CLT, just to transfer on another south east flight. Currently, United is very very small in the south east united states. CLT would be one very nice area for United to pick up on.
PIT. Same deal as CLT, with the exception of intra North East connections. Passengers going to the north east from the northeast could connect here.
So in conclusion, I feel that PIT and CLT are perfictally suited for United to take them over. Carriers like Delta, and Continental are very strong on the east coast. Continental is stronger in the north, and Delta is stronger in the south. Altough Delta does have a very large presence due to hubbing in CVG, JFK and ALT, with BOS as a focus city.
American Airlines, as stated is set up for RDU, BNA hub operations and they have a large BOS presence, which interms gives them access to the north east, from the north east.
Northwest has Detroit and MEM. They also code-share with Continental and Alaska making for a very strong route network. I dont see that PIT, CLT or PHL would suite them.
With US Airways's planes, if we were to assume that US Airways goes bust, my hunch is that United would pick up many of the 737s as they are common to the existing United 737s. US Airway's Airbusses feature different engines than Uniteds so Im not to sure about seeing them join the fleet. For most of the markets, any thing larger than a 737 is too big, so dont count on their 757s or 767s.
Iluvwestjet From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 930 times:
I don't know about the hubs, but US Airways certainly has some quite attractive assets, including:
US Airways Shuttle Operations
The slots at BOS, LGA, and DCA are all very valuable and I could see a bidding war for these slots in bankruptcy court by the remaining majors (UA, AA, CO), UA might want to snap up the US Airways Shuttle Aircraft along with the slots.
While they are no NGs, the 734s and 735s US Airways operates still have some life in them. I can imagine one of the many discount carriers around the world flying 737s only picking up on some of these at bargain prices.
The newest additions to US Airways - I see them being picked up by a non-North American operator, most likely charter operators.
Yeah, probably the desert. I don't think anyone in the world is looking to pick up MD80s at this point.
The rest, I really don't think anyone will want. There are no major airlines in expansion at this point so I don't see any of them picking up any widebodies or the larger narrowbodies. I believe most of these aircraft are on lease so they will be returned to the leasor.
Usairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3782 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 932 times:
i could def see nwa come to phl, they need a strong pressence in the northeast that they are lacking now. or airtran could quite possibly become a focus city or even a small hub. also phl has too many international flights right now to just leave them. phl has more than double the total in pit and clt. although phl is surrounded by ewr, iad, and jfk, i believe they still have enough demand to keep a hub. although it probably wont be as big as it is now, it will be considered a hub.
now pit i could see maybe a airtran focus city, but that is it. it is too close to the northeastern cities and the mid-western cities.
as for the planes united or nwa will pick up the airbus aircraft, and the 757's are up for grabs only because every major carrier operates them. the 737's are also questionable, and the 767's will probably be retired.
Jeff G From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 449 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 921 times:
MD-80: Already going to the desert.
737: UAL? Engines are compatible.
757: These are relatively old planes. National? Anywhere, really.
767: Very old. Third world or cargo conversion.
A319: Same engines as Frontier and NWA, so maybe.
A320: Same engines as NWA. Incompatible with HP, UA, and JB. (JB is only getting new airplanes anyway because it's actually cheaper in the long run)
A330: NWA. But they've deferred orders already so they may not want them.
Flashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2919 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 894 times:
I seriously disagree that PHL would go without an incumbent carrier. Philadelphia is a huge O&D market, very large business hub, and a growing tourism market.
If anyone came into PHL, my bet is that it would be NW. They're not strong at all in the Northeast, and PHL would be a great launching ground for them.
UA could be interested, I suppose... PHL does have a lot of Int'l service, and it would be a good place to move IAD to. PHL has a larger O&D market than CLT, too, but this doesn't answer UA's need to grow in the Southeast.
Everyone else seems occupado: AA and DL have their sights set on expansion at JFK, CO is right up the road in EWR, HP isn't serious about the east coast.
When US goes belly-up, the city to lose the most out of the deal is CLT. If anyone goes down there to hub (and if anyone did, it would be CO or UA), there's no way that they'd keep service levels where they are today.
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 17444 posts, RR: 49
Reply 9, posted (14 years 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 883 times:
UAL lost $2 Billion last year, and HP needs Govt loans to survive. I would keep these guys out of biddings wars, perhaps they could pick up some left overs in bankruptcy court should U collapse but thats just speculation.
Just like how the Rams were favored by 2 touchdowns in the Super bowl.