FlyVS007 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2001, 186 posts, RR: 1 Posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2174 times:
With the recent news that production is now underway of the new 747ER, I was wondering if people here would like to file their thoughts or hopes as to what the future might hold for the 747.
Facts or ideas, I don't mind which.
There is still no airliner in the world like the 747. It is unique, a testament to a fine design that was both years ahead of its time, but just as relevant then as it is now. Boeing seems commited to its future, whilst not over-stretching itself (or the plane for that matter).
PanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 10 Reply 1, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2090 times:
Obviously there will be a time when the 747 will be retired. Just last week I think Delta did ATL-JNB non-stop on a 777. I think this is the first time a non-747 has done this route.
If the 777 and Sonic Cruiser can prove its worth in flying long-hauls with almost as many pax as the 747, then the 747 might be on its way out. The A380 is competing with it for the long haul/high pax market.
Just as the 738 have phased out the 733, the 747s will be phased out by the 777, Sonic Cruiser, and the A380 which are more efficient and have higher technology.
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Sinlock From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1532 posts, RR: 3 Reply 2, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2060 times:
I don't know why people think that the A380 is what is going to kill the 747 line.
No one ever ever said that the 777 was going to replace the 767. and the size diffrence (% wise) is the same.
If the 747 has anything to worry about its the 345 & 346.
If the 747 is going to stay a player over the next 10 to 15 years. It is going to take more then "910K" upgrade. The "777 type cabin" is going to help, but Stage 4 compliance is what will make or brake the future of the aircraft.
Ual777contrail From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2046 times:
the 747 will be around for a long time.the a380 will be a concorde like airplane,only a small handfull will operate such a huge plane.i think the desert will see the a380 in storage more than it will in the sky.
the 747 stands for quality, reliability, and excellence in aviation. boeing has proven this to all the dedicated airlines who still depend and rely on these wonderful birds.the 747 will only get better, long live boeing.
Sdate747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 272 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2036 times:
its the hallmark of quality, safety and reputation. Every airline wants one just to look good. Honestly, go to any major carrier's main webpage - there will usually be a shot of a 747. Its a captivating plane - simple as that
Acidradio From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1855 posts, RR: 10 Reply 8, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1978 times:
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As these planes get older, I see no other way than for them to become the hippest thing for the urban youth to have. I mean, a few yr old '47 won't be too much to buy. The kids will be able to buy some low-rider gold Dayton rims, a spiffy paint job, some big subwoofers, maybe tint the windows a bit. Man, that will be the new pimp ride to be seen in!
Udo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1979 times:
Some people can't be take serious here. They sound like far off philosophers...
Face reality. The B744 gets old. The oldest models approach 15 years, and add some more years and airlines will ask the question of replacement. How will they replace it? With the B744ER? Just a slightly updated version, it offers a bit more range and a different interior. Airlines don't seem impressed. Only Qantas has ordered the pax version, with AF having ordered two freighters.
And have you already forgotten that not a single airline was really interested in a streched B747, the -500 and -600? Airlines ordered the A380 instead.
Comparing the A380 to the Concorde is just ridiculous and shows a lack of knowledge. How many airlines ordered the SSC in those days? And don't forget the Concorde really wastes fuel, while the A380 will be the most fuel efficient airliner ever built.
Would you claim that all the airlines who ordered the plane are stupid or ignorant? Don't forget there are some of the most profitable airlines of the past years among the customers. Singapore Airlines, Qantas, Emirates, Lufthansa...
Isn't it enough that some airlines stated it was aleady possible to operate the plane today? Emirates could, SIA could...but some people see the plane in the desert...
I would guess those successful airline managers at SIA or EK have some more knowledge and insight in the business, haven't they?
It's always interesting how some people try to convince themselves and others of certain realities which do not exist. That reminds me of Boeing's statements in the past. According to them, there would have never been a market for a widebody twinjet like the A300, according to them there would have never a market for a 180 seat narrow body like the A320 and according to them there would have never been a market for a 260 seat four engined widebody like the A340. Not bad, eh?
They haven't said those things about the A380, they realize themselves that there's a market...but some non-insiders don't...well, if it makes them happy.
FlyVS007 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2001, 186 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1970 times:
"And have you already forgotten that not a single airline was really interested in a streched B747, the -500 and -600? "
Actually, I know Virgin signed a letter of intent for 6 747-500's.
I see that this topic has turned into a bit of a Boeing vs Airbus thing, which I feared it would. I just honestly wanted to know if the good people here felt that Boeing might go forward with the 745/746 in the future. If my understanding is right as to what happened at the time, the neer dumped the whole idea, just put it on the back burner.
As regards the A380, I hope the projet succeeds. I'm sure Airbus didn't just go into the project on a whim, they know what is at stake. Personally, I feel that the two will co-exist well in the future. As airports get more and more congested, demand will slowly shift back again from quantity to size.
Acidradio From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1855 posts, RR: 10 Reply 11, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1969 times:
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Pax traffic is still down everywhere you look, so I can't picture too many orders for pax 747's as it currently stands. Just because the current economics of operating a particular aircraft type aren't great at the moment does not mean that that type is obsolete.
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 9614 posts, RR: 10 Reply 14, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 1919 times:
I want to refer to the article in the Jan02 issue of the biggest German aviation magazine, "Flug Revue". I wrote a topic a few weeks ago. In this article you can read that Boeing won´t stop the 747 for a very long time. Its the most comprehensive and factfilled future-orientated article about the 747 in years.
I also want to say one thing thats obvious. The 777 is currently very successful because the first generation of widebodies (747 Classic, DC-10, Tristar) is being replaced now. The 744 isn´t currently successful in sales because many fleets are filled with top of the line aircraft. In 5 years the situation will change. Fleets will be full of new 777s and older 744s will need to be replaced. 777 sales will plunge. Thats when Boing will come out with newer 747 versions and launch a model with more economical engines. This announcement is also contributing to the current low in new orders.
The 747 orders have always come in curves, going up and down. The 777 is as much a replacement for the 747 on the top end as it is for the 767 at the lower end. It eats market shares away, but cannot take away the whole market. No way. The 744/747NG is there to fill the gap between the 777/A340 and the A380. A big gap that is.
The 747 is better suited as flagship aircraft than the 777 anyway, and its ways more popular.
Blink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5430 posts, RR: 19 Reply 15, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1893 times:
I think with the us economical situation and the 777 success, I don't think a 747NG would work right now. But when the market starts to pick up more, I think a 747NG might work, especially if the A380 comes out and does well.
Right now, there simply isn't a huge market. A lot of airlines are using the 777s- and they are liking them too, and don't see a need for 744s right now.
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
Manni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23 Reply 16, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 1878 times:
The 747 was and still is a very nice aircraft, however his time to go is near. Like Hkspotter1 says, a few more years as freighter and that's it.
Why would airlines these days want to invest money in an old concept, with the risk that it will be taken out of production, due to lack of interest from other airlines. if they then want to extend that particuylar part of their fleet they could only get second hand aircraft or renew the whole particular part of their fleet again.
Unless Boeing comes with a completely new concept to either compete with the A380 or to replace the 747, Airbus' A380 will be indee the Queeen of the skies soon. With orders from Qantas, Virgin, SIA, Lufthansa, Air France... all airlines who operate a large fleet of 747s Airbus has already won this battle. It is now up to Boeing to try and keep Cathay, BA, JAL, ANA,... as customers for their "Big " aircraft. But a 747-400ER sure wont keep them in the Boeing camp.
Personnaly i would love to see a couple mlore airlines ordering the Airbus A380... I like the 747 aswell as the DC3 they are great aircraft, but that does not mean thet they still produce the DC3...
Biggles313 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2000, 47 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 1859 times:
The 747, even with the new wing and updated engines, is still a very old design by today's standards. It is very expensive for the airline to buy, and very expensive for Boeing to manufacture.
The 744 sold well because of its range. Airlines needed the range FAR more than they needed the capacity, and since the 744 was the only aircraft available with such performance, it sold. As the 747 was a monopoly, Boeing made plenty of money from it. With the 777, Boeing have hampered 747 sales by creating a competitor that can fill in many of the routes that previously needed 744s. Hence airlines like BA cutting back proportionately on 747s as 777s are introduced.
The A380 is ugly and doesn't have the same appeal as the 747 to enthusiasts (flying bus?) but its superior economics and all the advantages of starting with a fresh new design will combine to make it far more successful. Airlines care about nothing other than making money... Looks and heritage are low priorities. Boeing have been relying on inflated 747 sales for years, and now they are really suffering. The manufacturing techniques at Everett are inefficient and old-fashioned compared with those at Toulouse (I have seen both). This even applies to newer aircraft like the 777.
Boeing will have to do some very serious redesigning of the 747 in order to make it competitive. Their attempts with the 747LongerRange are just a stopgap solution, and their attempts seem half-hearted. I wonder if the Chronic Snoozer will actually work? I hope for their sake that it does!!
Boeing make great aircraft but they are getting very arrogant in the face of AI and everyone else (Boeing DC-10? Boeing MD-11? Boeing Harrier??! look at their website...) but at least I can commend them for remembering that the *pilot* flies the airplane, with a big hefty YOKE - and not the computer...unlike AI who are trying to remove the pilot.....
CV990 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 18, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 1849 times:
For me the best replacement for a 747 will be..... another 747!!!! I think the 747 will be around for many years, please don't forget that the older 747-400's are already more than 10 years, so what we'll see is the last old 100/200 Classics going out of business and then the the older 400's series filling the gap taken by the Classics and we'll the airlines ordering lets say 400ER's or an new serie called 500 who knows? The market for this type of aircraft will always be there, a A380 will not replace a 747 I tell you!
Fanofjets From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1895 posts, RR: 3 Reply 19, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 1846 times:
I hate to admit it, but I feel the days of the 744 as a passenger carrier are limited. As a freighter, however, the design will certainly live on.
Let's look at the bright side, though. In the mid-1960s, Boeing projected that the 747 would be a stop-gap until it introduced its 2707 SST. The company projected that most orders beyond the mid-1970s would be for freighters, which is why Joe Sutter and his team placed the cockpit above the floor, giving the aircraft the characteristic hump that people the world over love and admire. The design would allow for more efficient handling of cargo. Nobody during the Beatles era would have known that the Jumbo would be carrying people for another three decades!
The aeroplane has unveiled for us the true face of the earth. -Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 9614 posts, RR: 10 Reply 20, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1833 times:
Boeing is currently working on a version called 747 "Improved/Quiet", an updated 747-400 that will be optimized in terms of cleaner surfaces, new engine covers, reworked undercarriage, less noise emissions, cheaper and faster manufacture (less options) and so on. Production time will be down to 70 days from 90 today. This version can fly in 2003. Boeing claims to have some seriously interested customers from Asia and Europe for this version. After that they´ll start working on the real 744 successor, with new engines and new wings.
If you see an airplane as what it basically is, a tube with wings and engines, this 747 new generation can actually be a more modern aircraft than the 777! It´ll only look almost like the aircraft you know from 1969!
Don´t forget also a 744 is slightly cheaper to buy than the smaller 777-300 and the manufacture changes will increase that.
Beside that most 747 freighters are Classics that will need replacement later this decade because of age and/or stricter noise regulations. Thats a sizable market that alone will see the 747 in production for a long time.
I bet the 757 and 767 will die before the 747!
NWA742 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 21, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1820 times:
Listen up people....
The A380 will not replace the 747. It was designed to introduce a whole new market to the aviation industry.
For those who claim it has superior economics than the 747 does, that is complete BS. You don't know the economics of the A380 until it has proved itself, these calculations from Airbus are PREDICTIONS. It's sort of like saying the A340-500 is your favorite A340 (like many say), when you've never even flown on it! The A380 will never see the attention the 747 will, large aircraft are common today, look at the An-225, it is much larger than the A380, yet not very popular and well-known.
As for the 747's future, I see a good one both as a freighter and pax aircraft. The original 747 design is nowwhere near what today's 744 is. They make look similar, but inside they are completely different, the 744 made it's first flight in 1988, the 777 in 1994, not a big difference.....
The 744 will probably be sold mostly in the freighter version from now on. This is sad news for some, but hey, picture it this way, it marks a new beginning for the 747. Boeing has stated repeatedly that a completely new and larger 747 will be made when they feel airlines need it. The only reason the new larger 747s are not being produced is not the lack of airline interest, it's the wrong time. Boeing feels Airbus is pushing the A380 too early.
I agree with Na, the 747 does have a future. I trust the head people of the 747 program when they say it too.
Areopagus From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 1357 posts, RR: 1 Reply 22, posted (11 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 1791 times:
For those who claim it has superior economics than the 747 does, that is complete BS. You don't know the economics of the A380 until it has proved itself...
If airlines believed that, there would be no launch orders, not just of the 380, but of any new aircraft ever. They will order an unflown aircraft if they have confidence in the manufacturer and can believe that the design is sound, that its cost and performance projections are credible, and that it will meet their needs.
The original 747 design is nowwhere near what today's 744 is. They make look similar, but inside they are completely different,
Sure, there are many changes. But does it not have the same frames and stringers, spars and ribs, and rivets? Does it not retain the same airfoil designed in the 1960s? Surely, if Boeing were to design a clean-sheet 747 replacement, they could improve on it. Then why not Airbus?
But Boeing can build a very competitive aircraft without starting totally fresh. It has been written that the 380's advantage stems from three factors, about equal in weight:
1. Size, as in serving more passengers with one flight crew and one slot. Of course, the 747 has enjoyed this advantage to date above all other aircraft, and it has not prevented airlines from flying the others. The capability should match the market.
2. More advanced engines. There is no reason the 747 should not get advanced engines as well.
3. Advanced aerodynamics, materials, and construction technology. This is the biggest difference. To answer, Boeing could re-loft the wing to a more efficient cross section, or design a whole new wing. Could they replace rivets by laser- or friction-stir welding? Heck, they could build a totally new composites-and-titanium aircraft that only looks like a 747, and still call it a 747 for marketing purposes. (And its detractors would still call it a warmed-over child of the '60s.)
UALPHLCS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (11 years 3 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 1757 times:
I understand that the A380's wingbox must be made w/ compostites because of its size and weight. The normal metal wingbox would be too heavy. After the A300 incident has cast a shadow over compostites is anyone concerned about this new use, in the MOST important part of the airplane structurally?
I read in the paper both B and A engineers admitted that compostites are so new (only about 30 years of use) they do not have the long term data and knowlege of how they behave like they do for aluminum and steel.
A wingbox with the vast weight of that airplane riding on it, seems like a risky gamble to me.
Don't get me wrong I'm sure the test fights and the first years of service will see no problems. But 10 years down the road are we going to be invesigating cracks in the wingbox? Thats going to ruin alot of an airline's investment in these planes.
FDXmech From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3251 posts, RR: 38 Reply 24, posted (11 years 3 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1740 times:
What exactly, specifically, technically makes the 747-400+ an old design and whose days are numbered?
Those who think the 747 (or any derivative type) design and technology is static, a throwback or jurassic in fact are not cognizant (sp) that airliners evolve over time and unfortunatly not very knowledgeable on the subject, IMHO.
The fact that its order book isn't what it used to be tells me that either it's too large for todays airline economics or airlines would rather bypass main gateways with long thin routes or twins are edging out quads. At least for now.
If aircraft with very large pax payloads such as the 747 were viable and desireable economically, the 747 would remain a big seller up until the A380 assumed the reigns.
You're only as good as your last departure.
25 RayChuang: Actually, I see the possibility of a more advanced 747 passenger model coming down the pike within the next five years. The next 747 will likely be th
26 Klaus: FDXmech: If aircraft with very large pax payloads such as the 747 were viable and desireable economically, the 747 would remain a big seller up until