FATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5743 posts, RR: 16 Reply 9, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 1605 times:
Unless there is a major implosion of a competitor, I believe WN will continue its current pattern and add regions with a MSA population of roughly 1 to 1.5 million people. I think the short list looks like this:
Milwaukee, Charlotte, Greensboro, Rochester, Grand Rapids, Richmond, Greenville-Spartanburg, Dayton, Fresno, Syracuse.
That's about 3 or 4 years of growth. Others such as COS or ICT will come after that.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4423 posts, RR: 35 Reply 10, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 1590 times:
Actually, FATFlyer, it's likely that there will be an implosion of a major competitor in the next two years...US Airways. Their cash and ability to sell and lease back a/c will hold them for at least this year, but US probably won't survive 2003.
The articles about their hiring 4,000 people indicate that they want to put most of these people at BWI, MDW, and OAK. Around OAK, WN already serves most airports in areas of 1-1.5 million people or more; they're probably just beefing up their service and adding semi-transcons to MDW. (Who knows, maybe FAT will get lucky. )
So expansion will probably be into cities around MDW and BWI. All the cities you listed sound like reasonable candidates to me. I'm personally praying (and writing letters for) Rochester. Fortunately, we have very assertive local officials who have successfully lured JetBlue and AirTran; maybe WN will be next.
There have been threads to death about NYC airports for WN...I agree with the suggestion above about SWF and/or ABE. TTN's runway is too short and wealthy super-NIMBY's have the county (the airport operator) in their pocket. HPN, similarly, is surrounded by wealthy super-NIMBY's who would go ape at the thought of a low-fare airline bringing hoi polloi and noise into their airport. ABE's more likely, in my view, because it could draw from Philly too.
ChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 3919 posts, RR: 2 Reply 13, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1525 times:
sometime in the future Portland, Maine may be added. But right now, PWM is so very seasonal and hardly has a metro area to draw from (like Manchester does). In fact, MHT's served area includes the southern coast of Maine, so that further constrains the market for PWM. Southwest isn't likely to canibalize one station (esp. one as successful as MHT) by setting up shop only 100 miles away at another. With my folks living in Kennebunkport and me living in southern NH, I see the fortunes of both airports. I remember in the mid-1980s when PWM had DL 757s several times a day, People Express 737s to EWR, and all sorts of action. By comparison, Manchester had a few turbo-props a day to LGA and EWR. Now look at both airports...incredible to see the reversals in fortunes.
Woodsboy From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 1023 posts, RR: 3 Reply 14, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1515 times:
L-188 is RIGHT ON TARGET!
Anchorage would be a great move for Southwest, I hope someone at WN is reading the forums. Seattle Airlines, err, I mean Alaska Airlines monopoly in Anchorage SUX!!! We would welcome Southwest in Alaska. Maybe even if they did like Reno did, do Anchorage AND Fairbanks. We are absolutely in a strangelhold in Fairbanks with Alaska as our only choice since Delta retreated in November and now only serve Anchorage.
I know most of you out there read this and think- Anchorage?? What the hell?? Does anybody even live in Alaska?? Its okay, we are use to being totally ignored and forgotten not to mention sadly misunderstood!
FATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5743 posts, RR: 16 Reply 15, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1520 times:
US is one but don't forget that UA and AWA are still struggling also. IF, one of them was to implode, I would not be surprised to see a Federal Govt. bailout along the lines of the Chrysler move. The industry is not in a financial position for others to quickly replace the service lost in an implosion. The voter outcry would be hard for Congress to ignore. But that is a discussion for another thread.
The articles also mention 250 pilots which someone more familiar with scheduling can tell us how many aircraft that indicates.
I would be surprised to see a bold move against a competitor this year. The only possibility would be ABE. More likely we will a new city we already expect such as RIC.
Like ROC, FAT has been aggressive in pursuing service. The recent media mentions of FAT by CO for future service with the new 145XR, HA for future FAT service to the islands, and F9 for future JetExpress service indicate a lot of growth in the next 2 years. WN is the big fish. With area growth since they closed the FAT Morris Air station in the merger along with taking care of WN's terminal concerns (new expanded parking, new freeway access, 4 new jetway equipped gates, and a major terminal remodel will be complete this summer) I look for WN to add FAT in 2003 or 2004.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
Jsnww81 From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 1947 posts, RR: 16 Reply 17, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1509 times:
I for one was very surprised a few years ago when WN added Jackson, Mississippi. I never in a million years expected to see that city on their route map.
With that in mind, I'd say just about any sizeable city on the east coast or in the southeast is fair game. I'd put my money on one of the Redneck Riviera cities on the Gulf of Mexico (either Pensacola, Mobile, or Gulfport/Biloxi) to capture the vacation traffic to those cities.
CLT has the US Airways hub, which seems too entrenched for Southwest. Greensboro seems like a logical choice, although it's fairly close to RDU, and Continental Lite really struggled there back in the mid-90s.
Southwest has also been talking about Wichita, Kansas for years... they've always wanted to add service from Love Field, but the Wright Amendment was always a restriction. Now that the Shelby Amendment has opened up Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a DAL-ICT route, along with of course of MDW-ICT, STL-ICT, PHX-ICT, and the like.
As soon as the Midway airport expansion is complete I expect Southwest to add quite a few cities from there. Right now they're shoehorned into about 12 or 13 gates, but when the construction is complete they'll have 19. Knowing Southwest, they'll be able to stretch those extra 5 or 6 gates quite a long way.
AeroGlobeAir7 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 586 posts, RR: 2 Reply 19, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 1476 times:
ICT services won't happen, not anytime in the next decade. You can bet on it. Even though there is a high demand for SWA's services there, Wichita cannot support a high frequency of flights, which is what Southwest's low fares survive on. There isn't a city in the US that Wichita could support 8 daily flights to, or more, and we all know Southwest would fly to more than one city if they came to ICT, the fares are too high, and Southwest wouldn't instantly make the prices rock bottom. I think it will be some time before Wichita gains Southwest's services.
BUFjets From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 231 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1455 times:
I read once that WN doesn't like to enter a market unless it can fill at least 5 daily flights. I can't see Western New York supporting this many WN flights from both ROC and BUF.
I've flown them 5 times this year out of BUF and I've never had a full one. On my last flight, the guy next to me was from Rochester. Obviously, people make the easy 50 minute drive from Rochester to Buffalo to fly Southwest. WN uses this same philosophy by serving BWI and not DCA or Dulles. They know most people won't mind driving a few miles to save $.
So just as DCA-ROC guy is hoping for WN in ROC, I'm hoping against it. I'd be worried that in the end, WN might pull out of both ROC and BUF.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4423 posts, RR: 35 Reply 22, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1430 times:
BUFJets: I read once that WN doesn't like to enter a market unless it can fill at least 5 daily flights. I can't see Western New York supporting this many WN flights from both ROC and BUF.
Jim: WN only enters a market if they can fill 10 flights, actually. Typically they fly most of those to their nearest hub city--like the 7 BUF-BWI--and then a few other point-to-point fligts. I could see Rochester, Buffalo, *and* Syracuse all supporting at least 10 flights. See below.
BUFjets: I've flown them 5 times this year out of BUF and I've never had a full one. On my last flight, the guy next to me was from Rochester. Obviously, people make the easy 50 minute drive from Rochester to Buffalo to fly Southwest. WN uses this same philosophy by serving BWI and not DCA or Dulles. They know most people won't mind driving a few miles to save $.
Jim: Southwest, like other airlines, makes their decisions based upon the traffic potential of a destination. WN said last year they want to go to Richmond despite going to ORF too. ORF and RIC are closer than BUF and ROC, and are similar in size. And don't forget the nearby stations in ALB and BDL.
All the WN flights I've taken from BUF have been full, though none have been since 9-11. People in Rochester will drive to save money if we have to, but I can assure you we don't like it. We had to do it for most of People Express' existence, then PE discovered that ROC and BUF could both support stations. We always get the short end of the stick on airline "ROC vs. BUF" decisions and do get tired of that. ROC is a healthy medium-size market. We're not BGM or WPT.
US Airways is ailing, and since 9-11 ailing fast. Both BUF and ROC have suffered big cuts by the Cartel carriers, much bigger than warranted by demand. ROC was up to 80 percent of pre 9/11 traffic by New Year's, but our capacity has been cut 27 percent. As George Bush Sr. might say, "you've got a gap." AirTran has figured this out as you probably know. They should do well at both ROC and BUf at the same time.
As US ails, I would not be surprised to see Southwest enter both ROC and SYR, and seize traffic. BUF will do just fine, and don't forget BUF has big ol' Southern Ontario/ Toronto to draw from. As long as WestJet doesn't cross the border, BUF has plenty of catchment area. They don't need to poach pax from ROC. WN could easily control 30-40 percent of air traffic in Upstate NY five years from now. And that with AirTran and JetBlue flourishing alongside, due to the airlines' different markets and strategies.
BUFjets: So just as DCA-ROC guy is hoping for WN in ROC, I'm hoping against it. I'd be worried that in the end, WN might pull out of both ROC and BUF.
Jim: Keep an eye on the big picture...it favors big low-fare expansion in Upstate NY over the next few years. There will be plenty of market demand for everyone.
UALPHLCS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1409 times:
WN's pattern is to go for underserved airport near large population centers. Because they can draw off the people who are willing to travel to a smaller airport for the cheap fare. ABE is the best bet for the mid-atlantic. Very close to EWR and NYC and PHL. AS said in other threads PHL is a 3 hour drive from 25% of the US population. ABE is 90 mins from PHL and EWR, and under served. WN would pull from the same population pool as if it where in PHL or EWR and not contend w' US or CO's hubs. ABE is a great little airport. As for the South GSO is probably the best possiblity. WN wont go head to head in a carriers hub. Look at SFO as an example. Im not as familiar with the west so I won't venture a guess
Chepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6101 posts, RR: 11 Reply 24, posted (11 years 10 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1407 times:
This sounds stupid, but I would love to see Southwest fly into DAB . Right now we only have continental connection to Tampa and Delta/asa to ATL and Comair on sats to CVG. But we are to close to MCO.
Fly the Flag!!!!
25 N2111J: I agree that Southwest would probably do well in ROC if they were to enter the market, but that's extremely unlikely unless US Air goes under. I belie
26 Jimbobjoe: I've always thought that Dayton was an opportunity for them--not going head on with Delta at CVG, but knowing that many would drive up there for servi
27 BA: Don't forget that Colorado Springs is the fastest growing medium-sized city in the US. Currently its population stands at 500,000 and growing VERY fas
28 RayChuang: I think WN is preparing for a MAJOR push into Colorado Springs (COS). I believe there is enough gate capacity available (ever since Western Pacific Ai
29 BA: The East Terminal which was built for Western Pacific is still empty. It only has 4 gates, but there are still a couple remaining gates in the main te
30 DCA-ROCguy: Last summer, before 9/11, Rochester's congresswoman had a request in for money in the next aviation trust fund bill, to add several gates to ROC for l
31 5280AGL: My short list: ABE (which is always that the top of the rumor list) COS - Why not? COS itself doesn't have the population base to support WN, but ther
32 RayChuang: I think WN right now is working out the economics of flying into COS. They probably have enough planes to fly to that airport from the airports I ment
33 Johnboy: Re: COS -- I have friends who have moved to the Denver area, and they're always telling me: "It's just as close to get you at Colorado Springs, as it
34 BH346: AeroGlobeAir7 hit the nail right on the head about Wichita. It wouldn't happen anytime soon. When did Southwest say they were interested in Wichita? M
35 BA: 5280AGL, COS on its own can easily support WN, that's not the issue at all. COS is not a small city, nor a big city. It's a medium-sized city and grow