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Gloomy Outlook For JFK, LGA  
User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1422 times:

This week's edition of Crains New York Business has a very bleak article about the effects of September 11th on JFK and LGA. I read the print version; online access to most articles including this one is limited to paying subscribers. The article pointed out that the dropoff in passengers at both airports has been more than twice the national average, albeit for different reasons. JFK has suffered mainly because the foreign travelers who make up a significant percentage of its business are afraid to come to New York. As for LGA, it has been hit very hard by the dropoff in business travel. Its focus on shorter-distance flights is another drawback, as in these days of heightened security it is frequently faster to drive rather than take flights of this nature. The article noted that many businesses on and off both airports are struggling, with many having failed already and many others on the verge of failure. While the most recent numbers offer some hope, as traffic at JFK and LGA is starting to rebound, any recovery will come too late for these failed and failing businesses.
EWR hasn't suffered nearly as much as JFK or LGA because of its wider mix of flights. In addition, people aren't as frightened of EWR because it's in New Jersey rather than New York.
To move a bit off-topic, the airports article was part of a larger edition on New York six months after September 11th. Each of the 15 or so articles was written by a different author, and it was interesting to see how their perceptions differed. Some articles, including of course the airports one, were full of doom and gloom, while others were much more hopeful.


"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16885 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1298 times:

Fact:
JFK Airtrain's first segment opens this year,

Fact:
Jet Blue is doing well and expanding from JFK,

Fact:
AA is building a $1Billion dollar new Terminal

Fact:
Terminal 4 the modern replacement to the old IAB opened last year

Fact:
LGA is the closest airport to Manhattan

Fact:
NY is the business capital of the US and possibly the World

Fact:
NY's demise has been predicted before

Fact:
NY has come back from worst (1960s and '70s fiscal crisis, Stock Market crashes, Great Depression etc..)




Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 1262 times:

Fact:
JFK Airtrain's first segment opens this year,
Fact:
Jet Blue is doing well and expanding from JFK,
Fact:
AA is building a $1Billion dollar new Terminal
Fact:
Terminal 4 the modern replacement to the old IAB opened last year


The article in fact cited JetBlue's expansion as one favorable development for JFK. Unfortunately, one tiny startup airline really isn't going to make much of a difference.
As for the new AA terminal, I suspect that it's still going forward only because work was well in progress on September 11th. Cancelling the project at that point would have been too costly. AA certainly wouldn't start planning a project of that magnitude at JFK today. Much the same is true of Terminal 4. And I should also point out that DL cancelled its plans for a new terminal at JFK after September 11th. DL says that the plans are on hold, not cancelled completely, but given the airline's steady cutbacks at JFK it doesn't look promising.
Airtrain's a somewhat different matter. Most likely it would still be in progress even if cancellation after September 11th were possible, mainly because the Port Authority has an obvious stake in JFK's success. I fear, however, that Airtrain may end up as a line to nowhere.

Fact:
NY's demise has been predicted before
Fact:
NY has come back from worst (1960s and '70s fiscal crisis, Stock Market crashes, Great Depression etc..)


All true, but it still was disconcerting to see gloomy articles in Crains, which is basically a business-promotion publication.








"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineJayhup From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 452 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1191 times:

STT757.....

While I agree with you about JetBlue, T4, and the new AA Terminal I have to agree with the tone of the Crains article. Most of LGA's flights are short hauls and people (including, unfortunately myself) are opting to either not travel, drive or take the train. Like most people I am used to showing up 30 to 45 minutes before a flight and jumping on the plane. Now with the increased check-in times and strip search security, people are opting other forms of transport.

I can only hope that this security nonsense (and it really is nonsense when you are practically strip searching 3 year-olds) is figured out and we can get back close to normal. I know that it will never be the same but there is a lot of room for improvement......

JH


User currently offlineTrvlr From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4430 posts, RR: 21
Reply 4, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1172 times:

So...given how much the economy, and especially the airline industry in general, can fluctuate in just a few years, what makes anyone think that in 2006 JFK and LGA will still be in the dumps? With all due respect to AA's excellent cost-cutting moves, they would have been stupid in the long term to cancel their terminal project after Sept. 11th even if its progress had been half of what it is now.

September 11th was not the end of the world for either New York or JFK/LGA. Give the region and the airports a few years...there's an excellent chance nobody would even think of writing an article like this come the middle of the decade or so.

Aaron G.


User currently offlineACA330 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 146 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1170 times:

A determined terrorist would use any means at his evil disposal to kill us. Even sacraficing a 3 year old or an 80 year old.

We cannot be too carefull.

Since flights began again after 911, I have flown out of
LGA every 2 weeks and have not noticed a horrible increase in security time. Sometimes it is as fastr as prior to 911.


User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1149 times:

So...given how much the economy, and especially the airline industry in general, can fluctuate in just a few years, what makes anyone think that in 2006 JFK and LGA will still be in the dumps? With all due respect to AA's excellent cost-cutting moves, they would have been stupid in the long term to cancel their terminal project after Sept. 11th even if its progress had been half of what it is now.
September 11th was not the end of the world for either New York or JFK/LGA. Give the region and the airports a few years...there's an excellent chance nobody would even think of writing an article like this come the middle of the decade or so.


Soon after September 11th DL cancelled its plans for a new terminal at JFK. As we can presume that the people at DL and AA are equally as competent when it comes to forecasting business conditions, I'd say it's a resonable conclusion that AA continued with its terminal plans because the work was past the point of no return, not because they foresee a big increase in business at JFK. That's scarcely a ringing endorsement for the airport.
As far as New York's recovery after September 11th is concerned, Crains seems to think that a complete return to normal is many years off, and of course will greatly lag the nationwide recovery. While some segments of the economy (the article cites Broadway as a prime example) are well on their way to recovery, other segments have a long way to go ... and the airports are, unfortunately, in the latter category. It hasn't helped that while Bush and Congress promised New York all the financial help it needed right after September 11th, they've since gotten much stingier. The latest federal assistance proposal is only $20 billion, which is so low compared to what's really needed as to be almost insulting. In addition, there's a big "time bomb," so to speak, involving what may be hundreds of thousands of people in the city with emotional trauma caused by the events of September 11th. Many of them are acting fine now, but can find themselves falling apart - some descending into severe mental illness or even becoming suicidal - months or years from now. I hardly expect people in that category to be any too willing to fly, to say the least.



"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineAcidradio From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 1874 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1123 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Fact: New Jersey IS a scary place, much much scarier than New York. Probably more toxic too.


Ich haben zwei Platzspielen und ein Microphone
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16885 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1103 times:

Tony Soprano and Paulie will want an apology!....


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineJrlander From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1101 times:

Delta did not cancel its JFK plans. It did, however, put them on hold. As the economy recovers, and as Delta starts making profits again, it will move forward with the plans. They could not afford to rebuild their facilities at JFK and BOS during this dramatic downturn. As BOS was already in progress, they went ahead with it.

User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1079 times:

Delta did not cancel its JFK plans. It did, however, put them on hold. As the economy recovers, and as Delta starts making profits again, it will move forward with the plans. They could not afford to rebuild their facilities at JFK and BOS during this dramatic downturn. As BOS was already in progress, they went ahead with it.

DL also slashed its schedules out of JFK immediately following September 11th and hasn't said anything about resuming any of these flights. That's hardly a good omen as far as an expensive new terminal is concerned. I very strongly suspect that DL will keep whittling away at its JFK schedules until it has only a small presence remaining - just as UA already has done. Now we have to wonder whether AA will be the next to go.




"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineCoAir@IAH From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1067 times:

And Continental just re-added three daily flights from EWR-JFK.

735's to be used on all three flights.

-Andrew


User currently offlineCoAir@IAH From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 271 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1067 times:

That last post should read...

from IAH-JFK..sorry about the error.


User currently offlineGreg From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1058 times:

As much as I like New York (not). The balance of wealth in the US is shifting west.

In twenty years, I think L.A. will be the commerce capital. Particularly once the Asian markets pick up again.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6632 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1053 times:

I think long-term LGA and JFK will make a comeback...it's just going to take a little bit longer than most other airports.

As for DL, I do expect they will fade away at JFK. They'll keep a handful of token European routes (JFK-SVO,JFK-IST) but beyond that don't expect a lot of growth at JFK for DL. DL just can't compete. They lose on the transcons to AA and UA, they lose on Florida service to JB and most of the European routes are marginal at best.

I wouldn't worry about AA leaving JFK. I think that they are there to stay.


User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1026 times:

I think long-term LGA and JFK will make a comeback...it's just going to take a little bit longer than most other airports.

Demographics might be what helps JFK and LGA. New York has long had a more transient population than most other major American cities. As time goes on, more and more current residents, people too traumatized by September 11th to ever fly again, will move away, to be replaced by newcomers whose memories of that day aren't quite so painful and who don't share such an aversion to flying. Of course, this is a long-term process, with its effects probably not becoming perceptible for five years or more.

As for DL, I do expect they will fade away at JFK. They'll keep a handful of token European routes (JFK-SVO,JFK-IST) but beyond that don't expect a lot of growth at JFK for DL. DL just can't compete. They lose on the transcons to AA and UA, they lose on Florida service to JB and most of the European routes are marginal at best.

You probably are right, but unfortunately for JFK there's no other airline likely to replace DL as one of the airport's major carriers. JetBlue, maybe, if it survives.

I wouldn't worry about AA leaving JFK. I think that they are there to stay.

Could be. Time will tell.




"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 1008 times:

What's happening at JFK and LGA is happening in other cities as well. Remember that DCA was shut down for several weeks after 9/11 and there are businesses there facing the same troubles as those in New York. Also remember that nearly every airline slahed routes and frequencies after 9/11, and are building those back up, some routes may take longer to get restarted, while others were back up within months after 9/11. The slump in traffic at JFK and LGA is due to the uneasiness of travellers to venture to New York, and many people are more hesistant to fly short distances, which is LGA's bread and butter (especially the Shuttles run by Delta and U.S. Airways), and international traffic, which is JFK's bread and butter is down as well. Confidence should improve by the summertime (hopefully) and New York's airports will see a rise in traffic by then.

User currently offlineFlyguy1 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1739 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (12 years 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 988 times:

Actually, DL has slowly been adding service back to JFK, last week they announced more flights to FLA. I do think they will grow at JFK, in due time of course.


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