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Window Of Opportunity?  
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4166 posts, RR: 36
Posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1056 times:

With regards to this topic (http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/758314 ; When Starting Airline System, What To Look For...?) I came up with the question:

Has Sep 11th created an opportunity for new airlines? Many large carrier have drastically cut back, both domestic and long-haul services, some have went out of business. Routes have been "freed" up, often because the equipment employed before Sep 11th (B737-200,300,700, F100, A319) is now by far too big an scope clauses limit the use of small regional jets.

My point of view is that we will see a number of new carrier starting point-to-point flights in the next 12-18 months with equipment smaller then 100 seats, most of them in Europe and the USA, to a limited number in Canada and Asia. Maybe in Australia, too, but there the consolidation process has only recently begun.

I´ve prepared a small list of rumoured start-ups, maybe this can prove my point of view:

Millenium Airlines (Italy) with Avro RJ
Speedair (Sweden) with CRJ700
Intersky (Switzerland) with Dash 8-300
Undisclosed airline (Malaysia) with two ATR 72-200
Norcanair Airlines (Canada) with Metros
Jet Netherlands (Netherlands) with F100

Unfortunately I´ve no update about potential start-ups in the US, maybe someone else can provide some info here? What do you think?

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders


Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
11 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAirbus Lover From Malaysia, joined Apr 2000, 3248 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1028 times:

Hello flying tiger.

Where did you hear that an undisclosed airline is to start up in Malaysia? I will say it has government support. it is not so easy to get license in malaysia. monopoly ...

Have more details? Thanks.


User currently offlinePetertenthije From Netherlands, joined Jul 2001, 3391 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1011 times:

And when you are answering that question, could you please reveal some more about Jet Netherlands? I have not heard anything about this airline before on any website, Dutch, English or other.


Attamottamotta!
User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3806 posts, RR: 29
Reply 3, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1005 times:

There is indeed a window of opportunity for soundly-managed, adequately capitalized airline startups in North America and Europe wherever freedom is allowed to offer new services without the imposition of undue or artificial or arbitrary or protectionist barriers to competition. The opportunity -- and profit-making potential -- is not in the so-called "full-service" model and/or entangling alliances with other airlines, nor is it in operating advanced turboprop and/or regional jet types IMO.

The opportunity IMO -- based on real-world experience -- is in responding to the still largely untapped reservoir of demand for basic all-coach "no frills" service with 100-150 pax types on short- to medium-haul sectors at fares that make sense (vs. the unpredictable nonsense that prevails with the "full-service" majors wherein one pax in coach may be paying up to 10 times more than the pax occupying the adjacent seat, both "enjoying" the same "frills" ranging from non-existent to mediocre-at-best).

If there is anything that stands out as obvious in the airline marketplace, it is that pax are picking price over perks. So-called "full-service" with all the trimmings people say they want -- but are not willing to pay for -- are far more costly to provide than one can know until one has worked inside the industry.


User currently offlineRjnut From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1245 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1004 times:

i would love to start a feed for Vangaurd in MCI using new dash 8-400s for cities like OMA DSM SGF..you would need that large of a plane due to lower fares..I think you get away with "prop avoidance" factor when fare is good enough...I am still sold on this airplane evern though it seems dogged with demons

User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4166 posts, RR: 36
Reply 5, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1004 times:

Malaysia: This was announced by ATR on Feb 27th, a contract for two ATR 72-200, no more details.

Jet Netherlands: One Fokker F100 and one Falcon 50, base Amsterdam.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineTechRep From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1001 times:

Add this one too:

Air Splendid, Interested in the Grenada Shuttle trying to get financing.

I have no further information on this start up. I posted here about a week ago with any information about this airline, it went unanswered.


User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1001 times:

Has Sep 11th created an opportunity for new airlines? Many large carrier have drastically cut back, both domestic and long-haul services, some have went out of business. Routes have been "freed" up, often because the equipment employed before Sep 11th (B737-200,300,700, F100, A319) is now by far too big an scope clauses limit the use of small regional jets.

Yet it's equally true that as a result of September 11th many people have decided that they never will fly again, at least not for several years. I've heard estimates that as much as 20% of the people in the United States have sworn off flying. Having more available routes and equipment doesn't help very much when the potential customer base has been so drastically diminished.



"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4166 posts, RR: 36
Reply 8, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 978 times:

PROSA, I strongly believe that this is not true. You might decide not to fly for maybe two years but then memory starts to fshift to other things, I would rather estimate 5%.

Rjnut, I think that the prop-avoidance factor (if we can call it this way) is even stronger in the 70-seat segment. People can understand when they are in a small turboprop (~30 seats) but not when they are in a 70-seat prop, especially when they have already flown in a RJ. With the new Regional Airlines (Embraer 170-195, FD 728/928) this will get even stronger due to the higher comfort level which will be marketed quite strongly by the airlines. It might not have been possible to predict for Bombardier at the time they launched the Dash 8-Q400 but I don´t think that the D8-400 will pay finally pay off.

TechRep: I tried to find something about them but I came up totally dry. Sorry, otherwise I would have answered.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
http://fly.to/rorders



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlinePROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5644 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 962 times:

PROSA, I strongly believe that this [fear of flying] is not true. You might decide not to fly for maybe two years but then memory starts to shift to other things, I would rather estimate 5%.

I suppose it remains to be seen. According to the latest poll in USAToday, 44% of the American population is "very" or "somewhat" afraid to fly. This percentage was in the teens before September 11th. Obviously, air travel has not fallen off by 44%, but this fear level is still a major concern for the airlines. It's not hard to imagine that high fear levels will make the already-risky task of starting a new airline even more difficult. And as far as the "shifting of memory" is concerned, well, that's undoubtedly true with respect to most traumatic events, but September 11th is something entirely new and different, something that separated all our lives into "before" and "after" phases. It's going to take a long, long time to forget the images of the planes hitting the towers.
Just for the record, I'm not myself worried about flying, in fact I flew ISP-PBI on WN in early October. I suppose I should be afraid as I live and work in the New York area, where fearfulness is at its absolute peak (and air traffic has tanked). But I guess I don't think the same way as most people.






"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
User currently offlineDuggan From France, joined Jan 2002, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 930 times:

Another startup airline rumoured :
SolAir (?) Italy with F/D 728.
They seem to have totally disapeared.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (12 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 923 times:

Tiger, interresting standpoint

However don't forget that not every carrier is weakened, the survivors will rush-in to fill space left open by others (see Belgium , SN).

I think it takes a good network to fill up planes proffitable. Start-ups often have problems with that ..

Perhaps bigger airlines will more then before "outsource" the thinner destinations to regionals / new start-ups.




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