In the above post I discussed how well we could get along without Midway and Johnston Island. The question now is, suppose Midway and Johnston are gone, and Majuro hasn't replaced them. A Hawaii-to-Japan flight can do okay with 180-minute ETOPS as long as Wake is available, but what if Wake has bad weather on a given day? HNL-NRT is 3318.7 nm on the "great circle", but if neither Wake or the other alternates is open a very long detour will be required. Does this effectively preclude scheduling a twin on the route?
Details on the detour: if the Aleutian airfields are gone (and they're all endangered, aren't they?) then the HNL-NRT flight would have to head south. I'm guessing they would have to stay within 1167 nm of HNL/KOA and then Faleolo, Nadi, Efate, Port Moresby, and Agana-- but if anyone knows better let's hear it. The above route adds up to 5236 nm, via
Same question in the South Atlantic: http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/764781/