Rick From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 129 posts, RR: 0 Posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3999 times:
US Air might have to shut down if it does not get the Government loan to stay afloat. If that happens, Delta Air Lines would have a golden opportunity to take over all shuttle flights to NY and Boston out of National in DC. Wow, they would have a monopoly out of there. I bet they are salivating right now. Any other thoughts on this?
PROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5578 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3721 times:
Shuttle flights, maybe, although there would be possible anti-trust issues (though less so now with Acela's success) and at least in my opinion a low-fare carrier such as WN or B6 probably would grab the routes.
Other than the shuttle, I can't imagine that DL would want to touch any of US's routes with the proverbial ten-foot pole.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
Jrlander From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3651 times:
I also don't see Delta wanting significant parts of USAirways. I can see them buying facilities, such as the USAirways terminal at LGA, giving Delta the opportunity to consolidate all operations there. I can also see them taking over some shorter routes from DCA and LGA, and upgrading them to regional jets, but that is about it.
GlobalDude From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3610 times:
IF the shuttle routes become available, they are going to cost a huge amount of money. Only very deep pockets will prevail. Delta has shuttles already, for competitive reasons, they will not get them. WN will not enter LGA.
The U LGA terminal is leased from Continental. It will not be available to sell off.
U has a chance still. Lets not rush them and wish them well.
N79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3553 times:
As it exists, USAirways is not a viable business. No airline would want to assume their labor contracts, debts, and other liabilities. Better to wait and let it fold before going after any assets. I doubt the the USDOJ would let DL buy the shuttle outright. I think AA would have trouble as well. My guess is that CO or NW will try and buy the shuttle routes and facilities. I'm sure UA would want a some of the action, but they have no money right now for a big purchase.
Padcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3382 times:
It's costs are too high and route system too small.
The markets that U operates in are rapidly seeing permanent declines in yield as low cost carriers move in.
They're getting competition thrown at them from not only low cost carriers, but large Majors as well. No alliance partners. It's a situation that's beyond repair.
Padcrasher From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3363 times:
IMO that could go either way. It is true AA does not currently operate mainline on Shuttle routes and changing carriers would not reduce competion on this route per se but the Government could take AA's market share of LGA and JFK into consideration. As you know LGA is slot restricted. AA just purchased control of TW slots, would the government allow more slots for a Shuttle service? Northwest would be a nice candidate.
Mf3864 From United States of America, joined May 2002, 118 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3355 times:
I thought I read during the failed UA/US merger that the DOJ stipulated that AA get the shuttle operations. AA commented that they would fly the existing routes with F100 aircraft in a shuttle configuration. Why wouldnt they get it now? They didnt get any corridor stuff with the TWA purchase.
ORD From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 1378 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3311 times:
With regard to UA/US, the government did not stipulate anything. UA knew the merger would not pass the way it was structured as UA would become too big. So, to alleviate the government's concerns they willingly went to AA and asked them to operate half the shuttle as a joint venture (and take over the DCA routes).
The shuttle would have been marketed as "one" airline, with UA and AA alternating hourly flights.
Right now, the government seems leary of making big carriers bigger. And AA is the biggest. So, it's hard to say whether or not the government would let AA have the shuttle.
Elwood64151 From United States of America, joined Feb 2002, 2477 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3313 times:
IMHO, USAirways does need the loan to stay afloat. I don't know of any airline that could sustain $3 Billion in losses for long.
On the other hand, I don't see any one airline getting a major piece of USAir. United wanted to merge, but they no longer have the financial means to do so. American just bought TWA, so the DOJ would be reluctant, and besides, fleet commonality would be a mess. Delta might buy the shuttle, so might American. Northwest and Continental are roughly the same size as US, so they might make the best candidates for a fourth mega-carrier, but they don't have quite a deep pockets as I believe would be necessary.
All in all, NW looks to me like the best candidate simply because the fleets are similar enough (with a few exceptions) and the DOJ wouldn't be worried about anti-trust issues.
Even then, NW has a different customer base and lower operating costs (at least as I understand it).
I see US going bankrupt and the other carriers participating in a bankrupcy auction.
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
Picarus From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 299 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3276 times:
Hellloooo???? Um, if US does declare bankruptcy, it will most certainly be a Chapter 11 filing....One that allows a business to continue operating while reorganizing and restructuring. Any asset sales would require approval of bankruptcy court, and that's not going to happen as long as US provides a viable business plan to the court. Nothing going to be "auctioned" off unless there is voluntary/forced Chapter 7.
US has a strong and relatively new fleet, good hubs, and solid brand equity. It just needs to figure out what kind of carrier it's going to be.
God, just look at CO and HP if you need to see how it's done.
That said, there is still no certainty that it will even declare bankruptcy. Let's just hope it's able to get the pieces in place to prevent this, and continue providing the same great service to its passengers that is has for 60 years.
N79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3269 times:
I think the DOJ would have a lot of concerns if AA attempted to buy the corridor shuttle because of the changed competitive landscape since 9/11 and the further reduction in competition if USAirways folds. AA is the number #1 carrier by a lot. I have not actually sat down and considered what would be considered the relevant markets in a potential DOJ anti-trust analysis but I suspect there would be several problems. First, LGA, BOS, and DCA would all become AA quasi-hubs. Considering the existing level of AA service at those airports today, the addition of the shuttle would make those airports look like mini-DFWs. I don't if any of the carriers could effectively constrain them. I speculate that if you start breaking it down by city pairs nationwide, AA would become so dominant that eventually DL could be squeezed out of the eastern seaboard. AAs dominance would spread to NY-Florida and transcon due to network effects. Market entry would become really difficult if AA got that big. I think DOJ would try to stop them.
My guess is that CO or NW will try to grab it and one of them will succeed.
Ryefly From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1391 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3248 times:
I am guessing American Airlines or Jet Blue would be the prime targets to take the shuttle. More so American Airlines because it would create more competition between itself and Delta for frequent flyer members. There is always a wild card though, US Airways could spawn the Shuttle into more markets and just go by US Airways Shuttle or something, and eliminate everything else including it's hubs and carry a fleet of regional jets and a few Airbuses to feed the Shuttle from major cities only. This would create small hubs for itself in DCA, LGA, BOS, PHL and perhaps a new shuttle market like FLL, JAX, TPA, MCO. That would suck wouldn't it?
As for Delta buying all of US Airways, I would think that would be very doubtful. How full is ATL? I just don't think it would make sense to split some of ATL to mix it with CLT. The two hubs are only about 300 miles apart.
Someone has to take up the slack in CLT. Currently there is over 500 departures a day out of there from US Airways and US Airways Express alone. That is unless it went from the current hub structure type of airport to a more generalized airport with a strong mix of airlines like RDU.
With a large maintenance facility, parallel runways, large modern terminals for domestic, International, and regional jet traffic, a baggage system to handle a massive amount of traffic from one airline, and being positioned smack in the middle of the east coast with limited weather problems, it's got to be a valuable asset for a major airline to continue using CLT as a hub. With Delta's and Air Tran's hub so close in ATL, and Northwest just over the mountains in MEM they are unlikely carriers to be interested in taking over the CLT hub. That leaves us with United, Continental, Southwest, and American. Southwest doesn't believe in hubs, and are doing well in RDU, so they are very unlikely. Would American abandon it's new efforts at RDU for CLT? What about eliminating a current hub to get CLT such as STL? Reduce traffic in MIA and mix it with CLT? To me, that would be a unnecessary effort. So that leaves just United and Continental. Is United in a position to take on more aircraft, and a entire new hub. I know they expressed strong interest in CLT during the merger talks with US Airways. After September 11th however, they are not far behind US Airways financially. I am sure they would take it if they could, but can they, and what about Washington Dulles? So that just leaves Continental. They have a strong hub in the Northeast, EWR. They have a strong hub in Texas, but nothing on the southeast. They tried with Continental Lite in GSO and failed, but that was Continental Lite, and still a different Continental all together. I think a Southeast hub would fit them nicely, although it's a toss up between the two in my opinion. Continental would most likely need more planes, to handle another major hub, and I don't think they would like all those Airbus. So maybe United does have the advantage, but I am sure they are pulling for US Airways to last a little longer so United can recover themselves.
Yes, they'd still be able to operate under Chapter 11 but that does not preclude a sale of assets to gain cash (Pan Am and TWA both did the same thing). I don't think speculating on who might buy some of the assets is premature at this point.
Lindy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3189 times:
Is US in very bad shape??? Well, I am more than sure that US Government will give them that loan. Why? Because they stopped UAL-US merger last year to not create any monopoly in Mid-Atlantic region.
+ US Airways is reorganizing its operations and will cut uprofitable routes.
I don't know if anybody mentioned earlier, but US Airways got nice big check from salles over 70 aircrafts.
B732s, DC-9s and MD80s that were stored in Mohave and Victorville are sold. Right now they are in the middle of talk with customers regarding F100s.
Anyway, if US Airways goes belly up, US Shuttle operations will stay untouchable.
Shuttle will be the only operation left for US Airways. I'm not sure if they will keep the current name but Shuttle will stay to pay off debt to creditors that US Airways will have when they "end" operations.
Thats gonna be more reasonable to keep Shuttle alive than selling it for almost nothing.
DeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8869 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (11 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3183 times:
I would doubt that the DOJ would allow DL to pick up the Shuttle. I could see Continental or American coming into the Shuttle operations, as each have strong name recognition in the Northeast Corridor (people only fly NW from this region if they are doing east-west travel, north-south travel tends to go through ATL, IAD, or CLT, not MEM). Delta would also not touch the PIT and CLT hubs because of the proximity of ATL (control over 80% of the airport and the airport is getting a new runway and terminal) and CVG (over 92% of the airport, with a new runway and I believe room for airside expansion). I myself have spent some time thinking about the PHL hub, and that is a toss-up, possibly going to the highest bidder. PHL is by no means a small market, having 6 million people in the metro area. This airport also has proven itself a strong connection airport (and in my opinion, a better one than NYC). I could see Northwest or Delta taking this hub, as DTW is 453 miles away (1.5 hrs away) and CVG is 506 miles away (1.75 hours away). In regards to CLT, if United can afford it, then I expect United to grab it. The major thing that United wanted out of the US-UA merger was the CLT hub, as it would give them a gateway to Latin America without competing with AA at Miami. In regards to BOS/LGA/DCA (not the Shuttle, but slots/facilities/etc.), I can see an intense battle between DL and AA at Boston and DCA and adding Continental to the mix at LGA. US Airways has new facilities at BOS and LGA (don't know about DCA), and AA and DL are in major expansion mode at BOS. I think Delta would love to get their hands on US Airways' gates at BOS (all 18 of them, including the new pier) and start cranking up its expansion now (they will be back in black ink in Q3, and possibly Q2), instead of 2005. At LGA, there are several factors. Does Delta/American want to move into the US Airways terminal? They have both grown significantly there, and both airlines might like to consolidate (I know that AA is in the Central Terminal, but is on Piers C and D). It will be interesting to see how the situation plays out, with first US Airways needing to collapse or sell off assets (which might not happen), and then which airline has money. The airlines are playing conservative right now, so it will be interesting.
: Delta's main market is the U.S. East Coast. Delta is the south eastern and eastern dominate carrier. Delta would most definitely be interested in the
: Delta isn't buying USAir. I think the big joke got started when the new recurrent simulator profiles included Philadelphia and Charlotte. Philadelphia
: What?!?!? Do you y'all think about Delta will takeover as for US Airways or not? I have a simple questions as for about with Delta & US Airways. Do I
28 Lindy field
: Delta is going to pass on US Airways and wait for its chance to buy UAL.
: I think Delta is much too conservative to buy anyone. I'm afraid that Delta is more than happy being a south eastern feeder to the northeast and Flori
: As some have tried to say, US is not done with yet. This carrier has been written off about 47 times over the course of the last 20 years, yet she alw
: Doug, I hear you. DL is way too "ATLcentric". I very big fault Delta has had for many years. But give DL it's due. After the down sizing of DFW,LAX, a
: nobody is buying anybody. usairways will not be bought as a whole but will be bought in pieces. and although delta will overlook clt and pit, if the c
: I just want to comment on some of your info: 1. Delta was never the largest airline at LAX. At their peak, after acquring Western, they had right arou
: Actually, Delta never approached Alaska. Alaska has no desire to be merged, purchased, etc. That's why Leo was so eager about saying that he'd like to
: Here's a question, what happens to USAirway's small rural routes if the airline goes under? They are the only airline that flies into some of the real