W_a_s_p_i_e From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2002, 170 posts, RR: 0 Posted (12 years 10 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2054 times:
With all these new 2 engined aircraft that fly longer and faster than before, what do you think the future of the 747 will hold? I think we will see the 747-400 fly in the way it is used now (a lot!!) for another 13-15 years. After that people will either switch to using aircraft like the 777 or A330, or they will use A380's.
What do you think?
Jwenting From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10213 posts, RR: 17
Reply 2, posted (12 years 10 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2017 times:
hmm, since when is the A380 a twin
747s seem to last well over 30 years before being scrapped. Given that the aircraft is still in full scale production (albeit currently somewhat slower because of the economic malaise) you can expect them to be around for at least another 40 years unless there is a major breakthrough that makes ALL current aircraft designs economically obsolete instantly (and even then many will continue to soldier on because their owners can't afford to replace them with the new equipment instantly).
Given that new orders are still coming in, that will most likely be closer to 50 years even if no new modifications are created.
Na From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11052 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (12 years 10 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1932 times:
Jwenting says it almost all.
I expect the very last 747 still be flying as goverment aircraft or for other special purposes when the last 777 will be scrapped already.
When the the bigger part of the huge 744-fleets will be due for retirement from premier airlines around 2010 there´ll most likely be a competely new version of the 747 with more economic engines that´ll serve this market. It´ll never be sold in such high numbers as the 744 (because there´s no denying that about 50% of the current segment will be taken over by the A380 and the B773ER/A346), but there´s a gap in aircraft size between the smaller B777/A340s and the A380 were there is no 1:1-competitor in sight, not even in the long run.
I hope that this is the last topic with this title. There have been to many on this forum.