It is unfortunate the ATSB has declined our application. We were so close to turning this operation around. Timing is everything. Airlines are parking airplanes, leasing companies are willing to negotiate, fuel prices are reasonable, the majors are retrenching their route structures, leisure paxs are flying, etc.... National could have been in a positon to seize upon these opportunites and grow this airline into a profitable company. Unfortunately, we were competing against an airline which received a government handout and we ran out of time and money. What can we do now? On August 19 there is a meeting in bankruptcy court.
I hope National can get back on it's feet. I highly doubt it now. I'm sure there is a "back up" plan in place but it's too little too late. National won't go out suddenly like Vanguard did, but all I can say is that it's pretty much over
Clickhappy From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 9823 posts, RR: 64
Reply 2, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1436 times:
I just want to let everyone know that I flew National to Vegas, first class both ways, and it was a GREAT flight. Nice service and clean planes, we were also early. I would be very sad to see National go.
AirT85 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1428 times:
Even if National went bust tomorrow it wouldnt be suddenly like Vanguard. Vanguard shut down the day they filed chapter 11, National has been in chapter 11 for quite some time now. I wish them all the best. Philadelphia love's National. I know several people who have flown them to the west coast.
Travatl From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2176 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1386 times:
National is PISSED about this decision. Actually, this article makes some good points to ponder.....especially the reference to the government's possibility of being a 1/3 owner in America West, National's primary rival.
AirT85 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1366 times:
Spirit has consistently enjoyed high load factors (i think somewhere around 92% they said last time i read on their website) but the high load factors don't mean a thing if the fares are dirt cheap. Because they are a privately-held company, we may not know until they do file chapter 11 if their finances are in bad shape.
Airlinelover From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 5580 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1337 times:
Although I have never flown on National, I would've loved the chance to do so.. I hope I still GET that chance.. The first time I saw that C/S on their jets, I loved it.. simple, yet effective... Anyway, I really hope that this is not the end of National..
Lets do some sexy math. We add you, subtract your clothes, divide your legs and multiply
Lowfareair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1314 times:
AirT85: Actually, what would happen most likely is that there is supposed to be a bankruptcy hearing on 8/19, IIRC. If Conway and co. can't come up with a miracle, they will most likely get shut down that day, with the last flights being ones coming into Vegas.
Travis: I don't think that the HP factor was big at all. National's margin has been about -15 to -20% with 75-80% loads, which is horrendous. The other two largest carriers at LAS are low-fare carriers(LUV, AWA) made a big contribution, along with the fact that they(National) have spent more time flying in bankruptcy than out of it.
UAL-Fan From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 375 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1301 times:
I know that going bankrupt seems to be the solution to everyones problems these days.....however, isn't National already Bankrupt. Didn't that already happen......can you go Bankrupt x 2? How many times can you go bankrupt? Is there a limit to the amount of time between each trip to Bankrupt court? Can I go bankrupt too? I hate paying bills. Can I get money from the govt. so I maybe won't go Bankrupt, but probably will go Bankrupt?
Seiple From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1292 times:
There are differently levels of bankruptcy.
-Chapter 7 is liquidation. Assets are liquidated and paid out to creditors who usually only get a small fraction of what they are owed.
-Chapter 11 is reorganization of debt into manageable payments. Basically, the courts decide what the airline can afford and what percentage of their money creditors will receive.
Chapter 13 is the individual's equivalent of Chapter 11. You can declare bankruptcy if your liabilities/debt is larger than your assets/worth. However, if you survive and emerge from bankruptcy, your credit is shot, you will have problems getting good loan or financing terms, etc. Look at TWA.... they got really bad lease deals due to their poor credit after a few trips to bankruptcy court.
If National goes further into bankruptcy, it'll be Chapter 7... close up shop and the creditors grab whatever assets they can claim to make up for the millions of dollars they will be out.
EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 14858 posts, RR: 60
Reply 14, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1236 times:
AirTran would be a great candidate, too. Personally, I think they'd benefit from acquiring some smaller equipment first, like B-737-800s instead. No one ever went bankrupt from flying planes that were too SMALL, right?
I'd love to see Alaska and National make something happen, though. The thought of seeing that Eskimo on the tail of a mighty B-757 sends a big dopey grin across my face.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
Srbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 1068 times:
If the rumor about AirTran and National is true (more than likely it's just like any other rumor), that would give AirTran a suitable base in which to launch western service. Use the 757s for flights between the hubs (honestly, I'd ditch LAS as a hub, and move it to COS) and to cities like MCO and LGA. I once heard that Valujet had intentions to change their name to National once they got to a certain size (100+ a/c), so AirTran would probably use the National name (better name anyway) if they were to buy them out. Spirit is a carrier that in terms of finances, not too many know about. Since Spirit is privately held, they don't have to release any financial info to the public; but if they are in financial straits (they have to be if they applied for ATSB loans), the public won't know how bad until the company files for CH. 11 or 7.
LoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 4028 posts, RR: 30
Reply 20, posted (13 years 5 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1030 times:
Here's two tidbits regarding this topic.
Over at Aero-news, there was an article about National and Spirit being denied the loan guarantees. The article mentioned:
The consulting firm being utilized by the ATSB in the review of the revenue forecasting techniques of applicants is GRA, which is partially owned by General Electric. General Electric, through their aircraft leasing division GECAS, is one of the largest creditors of America West and US Airways, the only successful applicant and conditionally-approved applicant, respectively. Surely, with the number of reputable financial consulting firms specializing in these matters, the ATSB could have and should have selected a firm with more independent credentials.
The other little tidbit was a post made over at USAviation.com. The poster indicated that it appeared that the votes were rather close to disapprove both airlines applications, but the thing that swayed them to vote against Spirit's and National's application was the September 11th marketing stunts. Spirit is flying folks free across the system and National will fly you to LAS for $1.00. The reasoning seemed to be, "Well, Spirit and National obviously can't fill up their seats, so they're giving everything away on the 11th. If they can't fill up their seats, they must not have a good recovery plan in place, so why should we guarantee their loans?"
Now I don't know if either of these tidbits are true or not, I'm just passing on things I've read to add to the discussion.