CX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4385 posts, RR: 5 Posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3439 times:
What do you think the future of the 747 line holds? I know that there are 2 new models rolling off the production line, but I feel that more than just a slight update is needed. Do you think a new model is being planned, or is this the end of the line?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
Boeing nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3408 times:
The future of my beloved 747 is becoming more and more uncertain everyday. I believe that the only thing that could continue the line is the reemergence of the 747X/Stretch. The QLR should get the go ahead when the economy picks up again, but the chances of the QLR getting a lot of orders I don't think is too good. And even if the 747X gets launched, I don't see these models being hot sellers either. The 747X would be more or less a niche aircraft with it's almost 9,000 nm range, unless some airlines use it as a -400 replacement. The stretch in pax version I don't think would be that strong a competitor against the A380. However, the freighter version I think would do guite well. Another reason for an uncertain future is the possible developement of the "777-250ERX". Slightly longer range than the standard 744 with around thirty more seats than the -200. With several airlines replacing the 744 with the 772, the oportunity to put thirty more seats on on these routes with much lower operating costs than the 744 should be very tempting to airlines when they get in a buying mood again.
I don't like talking about my all time favorite aircraft this way, but if things don't get better soon, I feel the end may be indeed near...
Cedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 7702 posts, RR: 55 Reply 2, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3387 times:
32 years and counting is an incredible run. If the line shuts soon (which it will), it's still a world-beating aircraft and will always be my favourite. Queen Of The Skies and (sniff!) Queen Of Our Hearts. Aw.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
Alitalia744 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 4656 posts, RR: 45 Reply 3, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3357 times:
Can we not talk about the 747 line shutting down....It will be truly a sad day in Aviation History....
Jwenting From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10213 posts, RR: 21 Reply 5, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3307 times:
If the line shuts soon (which it will),
do you have ANY substantiated information to lend credibility to your claim (like an official Boeing pressrelease for example)?
Or is it just wishfull thinking on your part like most of the claims that the 747 (or any other aircraft) will be out of production soon?
Sllevin From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 3376 posts, RR: 7 Reply 6, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 3277 times:
I would think Boeing would be very hesitant to shut down the 747 line. After all, when things pick up, it still represents an uncontested niche in any airlines portfolio -- there's simply no way people are going to go from the A340-600 to the A380 and not have filler for the gap between....
Also, especially since air cargo appears to be picking up, I suspect we'll see some orders for 747-400F's soon.
ZK-NBT From New Zealand, joined Oct 2000, 5015 posts, RR: 12 Reply 7, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 3259 times:
Well also my favourite aircraft!
While orders of late have not been great there is still a future for the greatest aircraft ever built particularly as a freighter!
Japan Airlines I heard will order more to replace it's 742F's in the future
Thai will order 2 pax versions shortly
Airlines like Lufthansa and All Nippon operate reasonable sized fleets of 200F's aswell. Also it really is about time Evergreen replaced it's ageing 741 and 742 Freighter fleet. So mainly as a Freighter I guess it's future lies but we have certainly not seen the last pax orders yet either, China Airlines just ordered 6 pax plus 4 Freighters!
PW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 1981 posts, RR: 10 Reply 8, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3215 times:
I think that the only way forward for the 747 is the stretch, combined with a modified wing to increase range/payload. The current 744 with some refinements may appeal to freight operators and some airlines, but has now become a niche aircraft, which is quite ironic. For 25 years, the 747 has been the bench mark for all large and long range aircraft. Anything that came close was considered a niche aircraft. Now the 744 is becoming a niche aircraft itself.
The reason for this is that the 747 has been overwinged from both sides. Boeing started the attack on the 747 by launching the hugely successful 777 series. Now the 773, 772LR, and to a lesser degree the 345/346 have eaten away the foundations of the 747. And capacity wise, its being overwhelmed by the 380.
So to me the only way forward is a stretch. Like some of you already pointed out in earlier posts, the capacity gap from 744 to 380 is quite big. Boeing should nestle the 747 right in between the 380 and the current 744. So that leaves them with the 777 and the 747 stretch to cover most of the medium/high capacity long range/ultra long range market. The current 744 is too close to the 777/346 series. A 35.000 lb increase in MTOW is not going to change this significantly.
PW100
PS. Not to start a flame war, just an observation: I would think that if Boeing was located in France or Germany, that the 747-500/600 would already be in service and the 747 would be the king of the skies for at least another decade or so. 33% is mighty handy if you want to launch a high risk, long term expensive program . . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
AFa340-300E From France, joined May 1999, 2084 posts, RR: 28 Reply 9, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 3194 times:
I believe that the only thing that could continue the line is the reemergence of the 747X/Stretch.
Boeing has tried this already, and while the proposals looked good, interest was just mute. With all the smaller derivatives and the A380 in the marketplace, there probably won't be any room for a stretched 747X.
Another reason for an uncertain future is the possible developement of the "777-250ERX". Slightly longer range than the standard 744 with around thirty more seats than the -200.
If the 777-250ERX becomes a relaity, it will not have any influence that the 777-300ER, A340-500 and A340-600 have not had.
The current market conditions do make it easy to see what's due to the 747 airframe and what due to the bad conditions. Let's wait and see.
Alessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 3178 times:
Currently I think Boeing attitude is wait and see, if the A380 turn out well, then they will build a bigger version of the 747. Currently I think the replacement of the 757/767 is more important, I´m sure the Sonic Cruiser will
be cancelled but some other new Boeing that will use part of the SC program
will turn up, concentrating on economic preformance.
Boeing nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 13, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 3078 times:
Another reason for an uncertain future is the possible developement of the "777-250ERX". Slightly longer range than the standard 744 with around thirty more seats than the -200.
If the 777-250ERX becomes a relaity, it will not have any influence that the 777-300ER, A340-500 and A340-600 have not had.
I tend to disagree. Many airlines as you know have the 777. They may not want the capacity of the -300ER, or the problems at thier respective airports that may not support the -300. However, a slightly stretched -200 wouldn't create such a problem and the airlines would get around thirty more seats to boot. My two cents.
747-451 From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 2417 posts, RR: 6 Reply 14, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 3022 times:
"Boeing has tried this already, and while the proposals looked good, interest was just mute. With all the smaller derivatives and the A380 in the marketplace, there probably won't be any room for a stretched 747X."
Boeing, IMO, will take a wait and see approach as far as the A380; a plane concieved in the headiness of the late nineties when the economy was better and people were flying. As 9/11 has permanently changed travel we will have to see if such grand capacity is needed. The 747 may be a niche air craft, but the A380 is as well ( a suitable replacement for the SR's and -400D's in the Asia Pacific region but with little appeal elsewhere). The Qantas 747 long Range version is a good definition of a where it's future lies with airlines that need very long range and not the capacity of the 380. The 747 is hardly "dead" since there will also be a demand for freighter versions of it as the 30+ year old classics reach the end of their lives. The 747 also appears to still have flexibility left in it's design with both major and minor refinement. Though major changes such as stretches are a possibility, the lessened demand factor comes into play as to whether there is a real need for it. However, a new wing may be more timely as well as refinements to engines since range will improve (as well as compliancy with noise reg's).
However, the 777 is where the future really lies as far as Boeing and and large passenger aircraft. The 777 represents a hallmark in technology and offers greatest flexibility as far as fuselage lengths, capacity issues, utilization of ultra modern powerplants and importantly cost per seat.
(The Sonic Cruiser is still "blather" since passengers that still are flying are more concerned with cost rather than time. What money Boeing has is better spent in improving the exisiting product lines and maybe even marketing)
CX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4385 posts, RR: 5 Reply 15, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2984 times:
Do we know how many 747s have been ordered this year?
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
Sllevin From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 3376 posts, RR: 7 Reply 16, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2957 times:
I disagree that the 747 has been 'winged out' by other aircraft, especially on the bigger side.
I believe that the trend being described -- that is, to tightly niche all aircraft, rather than choose aircraft in broad strokes of capacity -- will come back to the 747. In short, again, there's a significant gap between the A346/B773 and the A380, a gap that the 747 will fill nicely. If anything, it's the filling of that gap as business picks up that may hurt the A380, which may end up being viewed as 'too risky' in case of downturn.
Cedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 7702 posts, RR: 55 Reply 18, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2904 times:
Stretching the 747 is the mistake. Stretching it puts it into competition with the A380, which it will lose every time, cos it's a 30 year old machine (albeit updated along the way) against a brand new, state of the art machine. However as was pointed out above, there is a gap between the A346 / 773 and the A380, so I think the -400ER is likely to be the answer. When I said "If the line shuts soon (which it will)," I wasn't gloating (the 747 is my favourite plane and always will be), but compared to the A380 and 777, the 747's days are numbered, let's face it. And 32 years and counting IS amazing, so if the line closes in 2007 or something, that'll be a few years short of 40 years. Only the 737 comes close (the 707 was in production for 20 years only, 727 about the same, and I don't think the 757 and 767 will go much past 25).
747-451, the A380 is more than a replacement for 747SRs and -400Ds. Your implication is that the A380 doesn't have the range of the 744, when in fact it matches the 744 if not beats it. Aren't SQ going to use it to start SIN-LAX nonstop?
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
Fanofjets From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1894 posts, RR: 3 Reply 20, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 2814 times:
When the 747 was introduced, Boeing itself saw a greater demand for freighter versions with passenger versions being edged out by the SST.
Some 33 years later, we see a greater demand for freighter versions with passenger versions being edged out by the A380.
Maybe history will repeat itself?
(As an impressional ten-year-old, I imagined the 747 would be the plane of the future - for all time. Maybe I'm still living in a fantasy.)
AFa340-300E From France, joined May 1999, 2084 posts, RR: 28 Reply 22, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2757 times:
Hello,
The 747 may be a niche air craft, but the A380 is as well ( a suitable replacement for the SR's and -400D's in the Asia Pacific region but with little appeal elsewhere). The Qantas 747 long Range version is a good definition of a where it's future lies with airlines that need very long range and not the capacity of the 380.
We must have different numbers as far as the respective orders for both airplanes are concerned! Your technical considerations surprise me, to say but the least.
Eg777er From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2000, 1829 posts, RR: 13 Reply 23, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 2748 times:
It's important to remember that the A380 is not a one-model machine: besides the 'standard' A380-800, there is a stretch -900 version, but more worryingly for Boeing, a long-range 'shrink' model called the -50R proposal which will compete directly with a small stretch/range improvement of the current B744.
However, a positive for Boeing is that Airbus will struggle to beat them on seat/mile costs, as a shrink is always less economic than a stretch.
Airmale From Botswana, joined Sep 2004, 368 posts, RR: 2 Reply 24, posted (10 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2636 times:
PIA is the latest airline not to include 747s in its fleet replacement plan, so thats another airline that drops the 747, the present six 743 and three 742 will be gradually retired in the coming years.
.....up there with the best!
25 SilverAngel: no big loss there. Perhaps I'll Arrive has never been a 1st world carrier anyways. Besides, wasn't/isn't their 743 leased?
26 N79969: I have read that Boeing had close to monopoly pricing on the 747. That means they can cut prices once the A380 hits the market. I think Boeing will fi
27 747-451: "747-451, the A380 is more than a replacement for 747SRs and -400Ds. Your implication is that the A380 doesn't have the range of the 744, when in fact
28 Cedarjet: 747-451, I agree that US majors may never order the A380, since of the six majors (US, UA, AA, DL, NW, CO) only two (UA and NW) fly the 747 as it is.
29 MAH4546: Aerolineas Argentinas will decide between the A340-600 and 747-400 by the end of the year/early January. They are entertaining offers from both Boeing
30 Sllevin: MAH4546: It wouldn't surprise me to see Aerolineas Argentinas order the A346 -- like many airlines, it's not clear they need the capacity of the 747-4
31 Airbus Lover: I agree that the gap between A346 and A380 is hard to fill... Maybe by then Airbus will come out with the shortened A380 version??? But I also think,
32 N79969: I do not think the A380 will be used in Japanese domestic service anytime soon. First, I read a credible post here stating that Airbus will not push f
33 AA717driver: If you can pull a "Super Branson" and further dilute pricing on the Atlantic, the A380 might be profitable. Until UAL stops flying brand new 744's to
34 N79969: TC, Nicely put. Airbus claims to have this conundrum solved though: Airbus is claiming that the breakeven load factor (l/f) for a typically-configured
35 RayChuang: I see the future of the 747 primarily as a freighter. I can envision a future 747F version with the same fuselage length as the original 747X proposal
36 Airmale: SilverAngel It may not be a loss but its one more airline added to the depleting list of airlines that do not favour the 747 anymore, the fact that Em
Sponsor Message: 
From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4385 posts, 
From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 7702 posts, 
From Singapore, joined Sep 2000, 3423 posts, 
From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10213 posts, 
From New Zealand, joined Oct 2000, 5015 posts, 
From France, joined May 1999, 2084 posts, 
From , joined Dec 1969, posts, 
From Thailand, joined Jun 2001, 239 posts, 
From Portugal, joined Nov 2001, 230 posts, 
From Botswana, joined Sep 2004, 368 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
