Deltadude8 From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 569 posts, RR: 4 Posted (11 years 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3746 times:
I still can't believe the effect Sept. 11th has had on the airline industry...It shocks me to this day...
Just as like kind of my own little poll or whatever you want to call it...
Which airlines in the U.S. are going to survive this drought or such?
Or which airlines will survive and which ones will not?
Sorry for no other than American airlines I propose for someone else to conduct one also...
So...Do you think ________ will survive or go down? (this is what I think, but I hope for others sakes that I am wrong)
United- GO DOWN
Delta- (I love you delta but...) GO DOWN
US Air- GO DOWN
Jet Blue- GO DOWN-(I don't know why)
DeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8825 posts, RR: 12 Reply 4, posted (11 years 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3659 times:
American - Survive - the death of UA's ORD operation bolsters AA
United - "You are the weakest link, good bye"
Delta - Survive, the DL/CO/NW deal will only make them stronger, and them being a large point-to-point carrier only helps them
Northwest - Survive (codeshare will help them get access to the Southeast)
Continental - Survive (same reason as NW)
US Airways - "You are the weakest link, good bye"
Southwest - Survive - if you can make a profit in today's environment, then why won't you survive?
Alaska - Survive, but might join a major codeshare deal
America West - Jury's out
JetBlue - Jury's Out, this could depend on how the DL LCC does, as well as their rapid expansion (Midway expanded rapidly using large, new 737-700s, and now look where they are)
AirTran - Will most likely survive, as the Southeast is growing.
FlagshipAZ From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3419 posts, RR: 15 Reply 5, posted (11 years 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3640 times:
Survivors (Big 5) American, Continental, Delta, Northwest & United.
Survivors (Middle 5) AirTran, Alaska, Frontier, JetBlue & Southwest.
Needs Life Support (Bottom 2) America West & US Airways.
Again, just my 2 cents worth. Regards.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
HlywdCatft From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5321 posts, RR: 7 Reply 9, posted (11 years 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3612 times:
United will survive- Bush will give them a big bailout. Remember how Reagan saved the Chrysler Cooporation in the 80s. United will only be a shell of what it once was- possibly selling its Pacific ops to another airline and closing a couple of hubs and retiring aircraft and defering new orders. Hubs in danger are SFO (because Pacific ops would be gone) and yes Denver. If not Denver, then ORD, but more likely ORD would be kept open becuase it is their main hub. UA keeps IAD open for European ops. When the problems clear in a few years, they will merge with USAirways. I imagine the fleet looking like this- A319, A320, 752, 763, 772
AA will survive, but will prolly close STL or make it just an American Eagle hub with their ERJs. AA will also get smaller. They will keep their South American routes which seem to be the least affected International routes since Sept 11. Once problems are thru and airline is profitable again
Fleet in 10 years- 736,73G,738, 752, 763, 764, 772 (with MD80s on way out)
Delta- Will survive- in about 5-6 years Delta, Continental and Northwest will merge into a giant airline called Skyteam with hubs in IAH, ATL, DTW, MSP and EWR. SLC and CVG will be important RJ bases flying a mix of ERJs and CRJs of different sizes. DFW and CLE operations will be ceased. DTW will be the main gateway to Asia, ATL to South America and carribean, HOU to Central America and Mex, EWR to Europe. MSP will be an important domestic hub.
Fleet- 736, 73G, 738, 739, 744, 752, 762, 763, 764, 772 (NW Airbus A319 and A320s sold to Jet Blue, United and Frontier)(The A330s sold to Boeing for more 772s) since they are the oddball type for the three airlines.
USAirways- on life support, if they survive this downturn they will be gobbled up by United if United pulls out and becomes profitable again
A319, A320, A321, A330
America West- bye bye
Southwest- Definitely the best shape of all after this downturn buys 736s to replace the 735s- Fleet 736, 73G
Jet Blue- Works out great- Buys used A319s and 320s from Northwest after Northwest Joins Skyteam Air.
Fleet- A319, A320
Frontier- If United closes DEN hub, Frontier could do very well unless another airline moves in. Frontier expands majorly due to demand from people of Denver, opens another hub perhaps in MCI- fleet A318, A319, A320
Another Scenario I see happening in the future is that there will be no more major airlines, but instead these Giant alliances. We may just see Skyteam, Star and One World. Think about it, these alliances were pretty much unheard of 10 years ago, so think about 10 years from now.
AA-STL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3536 times:
DEN?!?! United wouldn't shut down DEN if they were on their death bed. It is extremely profitable for them.
UAL would remain a European gateway at IAD,Chicago would remain a domestic and European base, and DEN would remain their main domestic transfer point.
The government simply will not let those three merge into one giant airline...it just won't happen. ( over 1000 planes??) I think maybe NW and CO could possibly merge leaving MSP, DTW, IAH, and EWR. MEM is significantly downsized and CLE is just flat out stopped.
AA- They keep DFW, ORD, and MIA at their current size. STL is downsized until profitablity. Once profitable, they begin adding flights back to STL. Remember, when AA was profitable they always wanted another midwestern hub. I think that AA's strategy could work filtering all the low yield through STL, and all of the O& D through DFW, and ORD.
HP-May manage to survive, who knows
Southwest-Obviously survives and remains strong, continues building at BWI and PHX
AS-Will get out of this okay, continuing to expand throughout the mainland
F9-Won't start a hub at MCI due to the poor terminal layout that Kansas City remains devoted too. They claim its a "drive to your gate experience". Maybe a small focus city with 5 or 6 cities. MCI really is underserved, and could use a few flights too cities that NJ used to serve.
TZSFO From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 202 posts, RR: 7 Reply 11, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3526 times:
Here are my predictions -
American - Survive, albeit smaller (read=more efficient)
UAL - Survive, much much smaller
Southwest - Like was said before....If you can pull a profit now you can pull a profit anytime
Delta - um bye bye
Continental, Alaska, Northwest - All Survivors - but they have to do it as some sort of alliance and stick to the routes they are good at. Alaska - West coast and AK...NW - Midwest to the coasts ....CO- the south as well as the east coast
Jetblue - Bye bye - I think they are a "fad"....Their hipness will diminish and their maintenance and labor costs will rise....Bye bye low CASM
America West - Survive
ATA - Survive.....How come everybody forgets about TZ?
US Airways -Foregone conclusion....Bye bye
It takes nerves of steel to stay neurotic. — Herb Kelleher
Artsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 36 Reply 12, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3474 times:
are you guys smoking crack ? Gordon Bethune 2002
Delta isnt going anywhere, while I can't stand them, they are far in the way in the best position of the top 6. In actual reality, the order of stability would look like this (Unstable at the top)
US airways - at the top because they have actually filed Chapt 11
United - Only second because they have not yet filed, but are actually in
bigger trouble than US airways
AA - The cash burn at AA is staggering at the moment, and while they don't
seem to be at panic stations, it is getting extremely close to that point.
NW - Seems to be coping quite well, old fleet, will eventually incur the costs
that buying a new fleet takes on, but I have faith in them pulling
CO - Lower cost structure, newer planes (less maintenance), good service. (People talk alot about their debt, but it isnt a problem at the moment, and as of this month, still have 1.3 billion in cash, and 1 billion in unencumbered assets, own 53% Expressjet (500m-1b) etc. With the low cash burn that they have, they should be fine
Delta - Good position for growth, reasonable cash balance, good asset base,
good reputation etc.
Blink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5460 posts, RR: 18 Reply 13, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3433 times:
If Delta seems so financially fit, why are they cutting FA bases? I know IAH and a few other cities are being cut altogether, with DFW taking a huge hit. Delta, Continental, and Northwest are making an alliance, if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers.
United will make it if they can get a loan from the US Government and downsize, however, it looks as if they probably won't get that loan, so they could go under, they should try and see if DIA will lower the landing fees, I think DEN has fairly high landing fees.
American will make it if United goes under, which allows them a much bigger market in Chicago. American already hubs at ORD, and they would love to take over United's marketshare to solidify ChicAAgo.Also, downsize the STL hub and go back to it once profitability is reached. AA does not need 3 midwestern hubs in times like this. DFW and ORD should be the main focus in the midwest, keep a strong Eagle presence in STL though. Axing a few DFW flights wouldn't hurt either, mainly those of which are not performing very strongly. Keep the rolling hub strategy in place, it might be worth introducing at another hub too, particularly MIA. Strengthening alliance with Alaska doesn't hurt either.
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
BA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11150 posts, RR: 60 Reply 14, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3426 times:
Shutting down DEN will be the LAST and FINAL resort for UA.
United is not going to shut down it's highest yielding hub with the highest load factor.
Yes, DEN does have high landing fees, but that's not stopping UA at the moment.
As long as DEN continues to perform for UA as it is now, it's not going anywhere. The only way United would drop the DEN hub is if United shuts down completely like Eastern and Pan Am. Which I hope will not happen.
From the announced flight attendant layoffs, DEN is seeing the fewest. Not to mention that the DEN schedule is only being downsized slightly for next year while the other hubs are seeing more flight reductions.
Like I said, DEN is currently United's highest yielding hub and with the highest load factor.
This is due to the fact that there is not much competition in DEN and United makes up nearly 60% of the market share in DEN. That's not the case for ORD, SFO, LAX, IAD which have considerable competition.
The only threat to UA in DEN is Frontier which is hurting at the moment. Frontier is only a small problem.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
BA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11150 posts, RR: 60 Reply 15, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3411 times:
One more thing to add.
I don't see United shutting down any of it's main hubs. The main hubs are ORD, DEN, SFO, LAX, and IAD.
What I DO see happening is United shutting down it's "mini" hubs. This includes SEA and MIA. The costs for maintaining a crew base for a few flights isn't worth it.
If United needs to resort to shutting down a main hub, I think it will be 1 of the west coast hubs, most likely LAX. This will allow United to focus it's Pacific flights out of SFO and maintaining 1 hub for the Pacific flights. IAD coudl see a significant downsize aswell in terms of domestic service and seeing several routes go to United Express.
That's what I see. But I don't think ANY of United's main hubs will be shut down. They will be downsized, some more than others. One thing is for sure, DEN will see the least downsize if it continues to perform as it does right now.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
Artsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 36 Reply 17, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3388 times:
if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers.
I didnt say everything is rosey, I said that they are in the best shape. All of them are bleeding, and they are getting rid of the things that don't make sense to keep. If we are using actual losses as our gauge, then Continental is kicking everyones butt, however there is more to it than that.
Lowfareair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 18, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3399 times:
AA: downsizing STL until it becomes the type of hub CLE is. Most of LAX regional ops going there.
UA: slowly decreasing IAD with US alliance. Mostly ACA and transcons. Trip through a bankruptcy court will lower costs.
DL: Totally collapses under the mighty AirTran by next year . Seriously, I think that they will eventually close DFW, and build up ATL, with slight downsizing at CVG. Tad more buildup of SLC if CO/NW code-share agreement goes through, as that is the only Skyteam hub west of MSP. Fresh Air taking over in more low-yield markets, leaving costs low, although there will be more unionization at both entities. Buys out CO in Chapter 11.
NW: Not much happening but they will begin to lower costs and take on a fresh, slightly more JBLU image.
CO: Skirmish with the pilots union and FFers. Dance in Chapter 11, gets taken over by DL. CLE dismantled, but IAH and EWR kept the same.
US: Will stay in some form or another for awhile, slowly going down. PHL to be big hub, with smaller ops at CLT and PIT. DCA will stay the same. Merges with UA.
WN: Keeps growing, adds longer routes, adds the 738/9.
HP: Will survive with the gov't loan. Possible code-share with AirTran.
AS: Add transcons and longer flights, will thrive as a full-service carrier.
TZ: Will one day have to face off with WN in MDW, possibly bloody. Will survive, though. C8 will get RJs.
FL: Code-share with HP. Continue growing at 20%/year until it comes back and smacks them in the face, with lower growth after that.
B6: Survivor, but don't expect double digit profit margins every quarter as they expand.
Bucky707 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1028 posts, RR: 3 Reply 19, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3375 times:
"If Delta seems so financially fit, why are they cutting FA bases? I know IAH and a few other cities are being cut altogether, with DFW taking a huge hit. Delta, Continental, and Northwest are making an alliance, if they were making profits and were in good shape, they wouldn't need the alliance unless the single goal was to eliminate other carriers"
The FA bases DAL is closing should have been closed long ago. It only makes sense to get rid of these small bases and consolodate them into the bigger bases. The DFW hub is the worst performing hub at DAL. Look for it to downsize in mainline flights to about 50-60 a day, but increase drastically in regional jet flights. Using the RJ, Delta is doing a good job of skimming passengers away from AA. As far as the alliance, it is strictly a competitive responce to the USA-UAL alliance. Without an alliance, DAL would loose some passengers to the USA-UAL alliance. Not much, but at this point every passenger counts. I don't see a merger between DAL, CAL and NWA, but I think the alliance will continue long term. It will be approved by the government, although I suspect there will have to be some changes to the current proposal.
Azjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3656 posts, RR: 29 Reply 21, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3320 times:
Deltaairlines - the southeast is not only comprised of ATL you know. FYI - NW has a hub in MEM and maintains a significant presence in the south - infact probably the #2 presence - far ahead of what Air Tran offers.
Lowfairair - you say NW sill START cutting costs? They started cutting costs like any good business would have in March 2001. That was before 9/11. In fact NW is now going through phase 5 of cost cutting. They've identified over a billion dollars in annualized cost cutting so far. I think some of the other airlines that are just getting around to it are just a little behind the power curve.
Lowfareair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3288 times:
azjubilee: sorry, I meant continue to cut costs.
One thing for every airline out there: The gap in employee salaries out there will become more realistic between newbie in express ops and a 30 yr. senior person at mainline. Pilot salaries will lower themselves, with salaries not topping out at 300k every year(before future inflation), but on the other side of the equation, RJ FOs won't be making such low wages either.
PROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5529 posts, RR: 5 Reply 23, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3272 times:
My fearless guess is that all the carriers mentioned so far in this thread will survive, with the possible exception of US. Let's not forget that the airline business is one of the most cyclical businesses around. Right now, there's a down cycle, but it won't last forever. US is probably too far gone to survive, but I'm reasonably sure that all the others will, yes including UA. Which isn't to say that there won't be some significant changes along the way, for example AA's downsizing its STL hub and DL's doing the same at DFW.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
Azjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3656 posts, RR: 29 Reply 24, posted (11 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3203 times:
How are pilot salaries going to lower themselves? The only way is through concessions and not every airline is taking them. I hope you're right when it comes to bridging the gap between the wages of the top and bottom. With each new regional airline contract - the aim is to better the previous one. By doing that we'll bring wages to where they should be. But as we do this we have to corporate greed trying to outsource jobs, union bust and whipsaw companies against each other to maintain the low cost sweat shop like advantage the regionals have over the mainline carriers.
25 Tpowaleny: I believe, for various reasons the following will occur: Delta: Remains the same United: Dramatically downsizes, but does survive... US Airways: Will
26 STT757: If the economy does not turn around by the 4th Quarter of 2003 I think this is what the field will look like. U gone, UAL in bankruptcy or being liqui
27 RayChuang: Here is the obvious thing: UA will NOT go into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 11 maybe, but not Chapter 7. The reason is simple: UA has the extremely l
28 Gigneil: See I've been thinking a lot of the same thing. The UA-US idea wasn't horrible the first time, I thought. They've got very complimentary networks. Eve
29 STT757: "UA will NOT go into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 11 maybe, but not Chapter 7. The reason is simple: UA has the extremely lucrative slots at NRT and
30 Gigneil: Sorry, I meant to say "US and DL do what I think more carriers should do..." N
31 Coronado: People forget how fast a 3% loss can change to a 3% profit in the airline industry. Witness British Airways profits so far this year. Changes from dir
32 AndrewAir: Some how I think United will survive, I hope so. Just today on the news it said that flight attendants of United have voted for wage cuts to help Unit
33 Gigneil: The Saturday Denver Post's big headline was "UAL ON EDGE" in like 76 point type. There was a very interesting feature on how United became the dominan
34 Lowfareair: Coronado: It's more like a 10-15% negative margin, not 3%. azjubilee: Not taking concessions now doesn't mean it'll happen in the future. If UAL gets
35 MD88Captain: Coronado. DAL is not mothballing any MD80 seires jets. None. And no MD90's either. The md11's are going away except for 3 and the 727 will be gone in
36 AA717driver: MD88--Why is DAL only keeping 3 MD11's? Is it just the drawdown schedule or is it a specific reason? Also, with other airlines doing their best to red
37 AA767400: STT757 AA to merge with NW? By summer of 2004? your outlook is very dramatic, to say the least.
38 MD88Captain: The 3 MD11's are being kept to service ATL-NRT, because DAL management didn't buy crew rest facilities for the 777. And the MD90's are being kept beca
39 Ryefly: My prediction of the U.S. Airline industry for the coming 10 years are as follows... American Airlines- Remains much the same as it is today. Minor cu
40 Mikeymike: Delta "Management" is actually starting up Crew-Rest facilities again on the 777's such that the 3 MD-11's will be gone by end of 2003. Artsyman...rig
41 MD88Captain: Mikeymike. What's with the quote marks on management? I put that DAL management didn't buy crew rests on the 777's (except for one) because that was m
42 Gigneil: Ryefly- Not likely that US will buy any 757s, even the National ones, since they are aggressively trying to park the remaining ones they have. That's
43 Azjubilee: The majority of this thread has yet again exploded into a huge speculation fest Airlines are businesses that professionals (try to at least) run. It m
44 Mikeymike: Hey MD88 Pilot....my quotations around the management is probably a discussion better left off line. Perhaps we can email each other some day... none
45 Gigneil: The 764s are all domestic configuration and don't really have sufficient range to need a crew rest, do they? I guess they could fly 10 hours like CO d
46 Artsyman: The 764s are all domestic configuration and don't really have sufficient range to need a crew rest, do they? They are not domestic config for Continen
47 PSU.DTW.SCE: Thanks AZJ.... Wow, I got a good laugh after not visiting this site for a few days, thank goodness, and I couldn't believe all the BS posted on here..
48 BA: Deltadude8, I still can't believe the effect Sept. 11th has had on the airline industry...It shocks me to this day... September 11 was not the root ca
49 Artsyman: Even if September 11 didn't happen, the airline industry and United would still be in bad shape right now. There is a big difference from being in bad
50 DeltAirlines: There is a reason as to why I made Delta the promenient player in the Southeast, over US and NW. The reason is that the DL operation at ATL is much la
51 Azjubilee: PSU - What happened in DTW last night? Our numbers posted today were actually pretty good. I was working in DTW on Sat and things ran relatively smoot
52 Deltadude8: Thanks for the response by all to the topic... I would just like to add my final opinion because I feel like it...haha...about the fleets in the futur