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Boeing's Future Range Of Products- Look Familiar?  
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5721 posts, RR: 11
Posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2239 times:

On another post, I read tonight several things that Boeing is considering, and someone said something that caught my attention.

First, we've got this new "787" type super efficient thing. So, we subsequently axe the 75/67 family.

The 747 is old news... the backlog will be filled long before the end of 2003.

The 717 is the one thing that we can't count on either way- we can't count on it to be for sale in the near future, and we can't count on Boeing pulling the plug either. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume AirTran moves on to the 737s, and Boeing ends 717 production.

The big thing is that they are considering a 737-900X to seat up to 200. It makes sense- add an exit door, and capacity jumps by itself.

So, here's what we have.
737s filling all needs for <200 seats.
777/787 filling needs for >200 seats.

That's assuming that, as I predct, the 787 will have a lot in common with the 777.

Do you see anything coincidental about that?

They could potentially be down to TWO AIRCRAFT TYPES. A small one, and a big one.
That is EXACTLY WHERE DOUGLAS ended up. DC-9, DC-10. And they slowly- for thirty years, it seems- wound down into nothingness. They came up with "freshened" versions of each plane countless times... but it ended up with them being absorbed by Boeing.

So- see where I am leading? Boeing shrivels down to 737 and 787, and is in a decade or so absorbed by Airbus.

Agh!

Comment all you want, it'll be fun to think about this.

Merry Christmas

Randy

25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 1, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2210 times:

Hey Randy, good analysis but I think that there would be a serious gap in the 200-300 seat range if Boeing only offered the 737 and 777/787.

Boeing needs a 757-767 replacement (with 777 cockpit rating) in the 200-300 seat range to offer a full product line. The 739X and the 772 have too much capacity gap betw them to effectively cover the market.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineAirplanetire From United States of America, joined May 2001, 1809 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2206 times:

I never thought about that, but you're certainly right. If they do this, they'll be following in the footsteps of Douglas, so who knows what will happen. I think that it would be wiser to do the following:

-The 757/767 has a replacement on the way. Good idea I think.

-Something needs to be made to replace the 737 family. I think they should just stay away from the 100 seater thing with this type, but maybe make it range in size so that it has 3 versions. One would be a 737-700 size, on a 737-800 size, and one close or as big as the 757-200. With it going all the way to 752 size, airlines that have routes that carry that many people, but not enough cargo to justify a widebody with similar capacity (super effecient plane).

-You hit the nail on the head. The 747 is old news. Boeing needs something to compete head on with the A380. I'm an Airbus and Boeing fan and like to see the two compete. That way they make a better product because they have to. For Boeing to stay level with Airbus, they need to be able to provide their customers with an alternative to the corresponding Airbus product. Same goes for Airbus. The fact is that Boeing does not have something like the A380, so that leaves customers one choice: Airbus. Not a good situation for Boeing.



User currently offlineWilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1254 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2209 times:

1.747 is a cash cow. There is no R&D to amortorize,everydollar about cost is profit. The 747 will be around alot longer. Expect Boeing to use the 747 in different variants against the A380. The 747 is one aircraft Boeing can lowball Airbus with and still make a profit.

2. In a ATW article Boeing was quoted as stating the 737 replacement is 10 years away. So Boeing will NOT be down to just 737 variants,it will be a new generation of small capacity aircraft. And you can bet Boeing will use the tech from the 787 to make it very,very cheap to operate on a seat basis,in order to make SWA happy. But expect the NG replacement about 10 years from now. I would not be surprised to see it use a 767 cross section. Boeing would still be able to save some R&D money on new jigs if they the new aircraft keeps the 767 cross section similar to the 7J7 concept of the mid 80s.

3. With some 4-5 Billion dollars of R&D tied up into the 777(estimates are 300 have to be sold to recoup that)I would expect Boeing to use the knowledge learned on the 777 and apply it to the 787. Commonality is big too.

So in the future,Boeing will offer
1.737NG now,but a replacement 10-12 years away,using the same technologies in the 787.

2. 787-midsize domestic

3. 777-long range

4. 747-freighter,and larger variants to compete to with the A380. And............just because alot customers will NOT buy anything else but a Boeing.....Must keep the loyal customers happy.

5. SC-After 10 years or so,this aircraft will put Boeing back on top. By that time,it will not be a rushed idea just to get PR. But a mid supersonic Mach 1.2-1.4. With the ability to travel at those speeds over land without the annoyances of Sonic Booms reaching the ground,and the seat costs of a 747-300.


User currently offlineLowfareair From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2203 times:

Your point? Soon Airbus will offer:

The A32X

And of course the A330/340.

Then the A380 which is up in the air as to where it will be 10 years from now.

So they offer three types. Airbus won't take over Boeing just because it has 1 more type of aircraft. That is like saying Toyota will take over Nissan b/c they have 1 more type of SUV(Rav 4; 4 Runner; high-top camr...Um, Highlander; and the Sequoia compared to Xterra; Murano; and Pathfinder).


User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4189 posts, RR: 37
Reply 5, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2184 times:

ugh... a 200 seat sky cow (the old slow poke 737).


I shudder at the thought.


The super efficient 75/76 replacement i can see being very well done, and the 777 weighing the brute stuff down. I just wish they could come up with something better than the 737 for the lighter end of things. I really wouldnt mind seeing the 717 being developed further.


My jumbled thoughts after a long day at altitude.  Smile



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineWilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1254 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2179 times:

Considering how many customers are happy with the 777,having the 787 share the same layout is smart indeed. Easier to sell too.

User currently offlineVirginFlyer From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4537 posts, RR: 42
Reply 7, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2028 times:

Randy, I think the point you are missing is that MD basically ended up in only two markets - the 100-150 seat narrowbody, and the 300 seat widebody. For Boeing to be in the same position, it would be like them offering the 737 family, and the 777-200, and only those. With this new aircraft, they will still be offering a full seating spectrum. So, I wouldn't worry.

Now, if they were to get no further with this new aircraft than with their past 5 years of new aircraft ideas, then I think, yes, they will be in a fair spot of bother. But I sincerely hope it wont come to that. The last thing we need is a monopoly on large commercial airliner production.

V/F



"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
User currently offlineBoeing nut From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 1921 times:

-You hit the nail on the head. The 747 is old news. Boeing needs something to compete head on with the A380.

This will not happen. There isn't enough market two warrant two versions of a 550+ seat aircraft. If Boeing did produce something in that category, it would be a financial bombshell for them. The smartest thing for Boeing is to produce a 747NG seating 420-520 passengers with the "yellowstone" technology now being studied. Let Airbus have the 550+ seat aircraft to themselves. IMO, even if the economy heats up again, I don't see Airbus building more than 350 A38X, tops.


User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 34
Reply 9, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1897 times:

I find it amazing that the anti-Boeing brigade for years have been complaining that their is no commonality on the Boeings, now there is a rumour of around 8 planes down to 2 types, and that is now considered bad ?. I think that would be a great move for Boeing.

The airbuis brigade also seem to go on and on about the open mindedness of Airbus, and how advanced they are...etc, when all I see is fleet commonality which while a nice feature has not changed at all. Now each Airbus jet is just a larger or smaller version of what it has already done (other than the 380)

717
737-600
737-700
737-800
737-900

777
787

between these three lines, you can carry everything from 100 - 450 people, what the #$% is wrong with that, that sounds good to me


User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21382 posts, RR: 54
Reply 10, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 1854 times:

Artsyman: now there is a rumour of around 8 planes down to 2 types, and that is now considered bad ?. I think that would be a great move for Boeing.

I don´t see them, however, doing a 777 derivative with the proportions of the A318 ("super shrink"). Especially since an A330-sized fuselage would most probably be much more efficient.



User currently offlineWe're Nuts From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5722 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 1787 times:

Here's a thought. Leave it to people who have some sense of what the hell they are talking about.


Dear moderators: No.
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21382 posts, RR: 54
Reply 12, posted (11 years 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 1779 times:

We're Nuts: Here's a thought. Leave it to people who have some sense of what the hell they are talking about.

And what would the rest of us be doing in the meantime?  Wink/being sarcastic


Merry christmas, everyone!


User currently offlineHlywdCatft From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5321 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1717 times:

Oh Christ this is turning into an A vs B fight again.

If Boeing gets absorbed by Airbus, be prepared for the end of the airline industry.

Minus the RJs, the aviation industry could not survive with a one company monopoly, that means higher aircraft costs with NO competition which means higher ticket prices which means less travelers.

If that ever happens I hope we have some kind of Beam Me Up Scotty transporter by then.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1662 times:

787/SE will be a succesful aircraft likely. Boeing (finally) listened to the market & know what they want.

However I heard it is supposed to have the range comparable to 747/777...
Won't that make it to heavy for high frequency US/Europe flights ?

Or is Boeing trying to mislead others ? Any feedback from Toulouse on the 787 ?

Merry Christmas to all of you !


User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21382 posts, RR: 54
Reply 15, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1567 times:

Keesje: 787/SE will be a succesful aircraft likely. Boeing (finally) listened to the market & know what they want.

Hm. And it seems, the market wants ... an A330...  Wink/being sarcastic

Keesje: Or is Boeing trying to mislead others ? Any feedback from Toulouse on the 787 ?

Airbus reps had already earlier said that Airbus would definitely respond to such a move by Boeing. Of course there´s any possible level of posturing involved, but still... Boeing would have to squeeze into a spot slightly below the A330 while Airbus could probably answer with a derivative. Similar to the A340-500/600, just on the lower end of the line, this time. With a "smaller" wing instead of a larger one. And full family commonality.

But Boeing will certainly make the competition more interesting there. Airbus won´t get away all that easily...

Keesje: Merry Christmas to all of you !

Same to you, late as it is!  Big thumbs up


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4453 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1560 times:

So, Airbus is going to be building the A380 and a new SE aircraft at the same time? I wonder where they are going to get the financing for that?


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offline777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1555 times:

An A330 shrink will likely be too heavy whereas an A300/A310 moderisation will likely not bring the cost reductions that a brand spanking new 787 will. New product development time for Airbus...

User currently offlineDelta-flyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 2676 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1526 times:

Here is what I think Boeing's future is going to be.....


Check it out here ....
http://www.boeing.com/phantom/bwb.html

Since Boeing's announcement of the cancelation of the Sonic Cruiser, the above site seemed to have expanded. Is there a message in that?

Pete


User currently offlineHlywdCatft From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 5321 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1513 times:

Why only two engines now?

The McD design had three


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1458 times:

I don´t see that the B717 will be around on Boeings sale programme in 10 years time, I think
the B777 and B747 will be the bread and butter of Boeing in the future.
Also think that large 500-600 passenger B747 will be built when Boeing feel
that the market is ready (hopefully in 5-10 years time).


User currently offline777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 1390 times:

Boeing won't build larger 747s. Does no one understand this? Twice/three times larger 747s have been discussed and always rejected. There isn't a market for two A380-size aircraft (read: L1011, DC-10 battle). The A380 doesn't compete with the 747 as it is. Boeing should, and will, leave the 747 alone, only upgrading systems, interior and engines.

User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2463 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1309 times:

It's not too early to begin studying a replacement for the 737, even though it's still selling well. In 10 years, it will seem pretty dated, especially if Airbus offers an upgraded A320 or replacement. This time, Boeing will have to go fly-by-wire along with other upgrades, perhaps based on the new 'super-efficient' '787' wide-body. Fuselage commonality with the 737 might still be a good idea, although a wider cross-section (than the 737 AND A320) would give the new design more flexibility and a marketing advantage over Airbus. Though the 737 is a great airplane, it would serve Boeing well to design a '797'(?) to replace it in about 15 years. I agree with others that it doesn't make sense for Boeing to replace the 747 anytime soon-upgrades to the existing line will suffice. The large airplane market won't be large enough in the near term for Boeing to offer a true competitor to the A380.

User currently offlineNWA320 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1301 times:

I think they don't need a 737-900x because they have a perfectly good 757.
Boeing should wait and keep the 757 line open because the market will pull through.


HAPPY NEW YEAR,
NWA320


User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1248 times:

Haldwydft....

I believe the original Blended Wing Body concept was for a plane with A-380 like capacity, with smaller varients down to 777 size and larger varients well above A-380 size. Three 747- or 777- sized engines would do the job for something like this.

Go down to two 767 sized engines and you have either a new super efficient jet or you have a military tanker/transport superior to conventional craft in many respects. This seems to be the current concept. I suspect the military option is Boeing's main focus. Most of the time something new is tried in the aerospace world, it is tried by the military first. And Boeing hasn't exactly been known for its vision as of late, anyway  Sad .


User currently offlineAApilot2b From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 572 posts, RR: 1
Reply 25, posted (11 years 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1214 times:

Silly rumor. Silly argument. Silly speculations. Enough said?  Wink/being sarcastic

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