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US Airways Might Be The Airline Of The Future  
User currently offlineUSAir330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 824 posts, RR: 1
Posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3447 times:

Although US Airways is under Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, it is becoming a better airline everyday. US Airways has always been an expensive airline to fly. (I should know) But now that it's quickly coming out of chapter 11 bankruptcy the airline is improving. Within the next 10 years US Airways will have an all Airbus fleet, but will also be flying lots of its flights with Regional jets, which will save the airline money. But by seeing that the airline can come out of bankruptcy that proves to me that it is an airline that can and will improve. Although alot of other airlines are considered better, US Airways will always be the number one airline for me.


Don't turn your back on your favorite airline, cause when u least expect it they'll pull ahead!!!



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39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3423 times:

when u least expect it they'll pull ahead!!!

However, they are more likely to cease operations and liquidate.

REALITY CHECK.


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 84
Reply 2, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3393 times:

Heh, how rude.

He was just trying to indicate faith. If you want to start battling faith, I have reality checks for a LOT of people.

N


User currently offlineUSAir330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 824 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3360 times:

See that's what everyone's expecting to happen. But if it ever does cease operations it'll be right behind American Airlines.

User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3345 times:

See that's what everyone's expecting to happen

Yes, that is somewhat of a realistic expectation from a BANKRUPT company isn't it?


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 84
Reply 5, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3337 times:

There's no need to be a jackass about it. Many companies the world-wide survive bankruptcy every day.

It doesn't hurt to have a little faith. Everything we've heard from US is very positive. A little hope can't hurt.

If US does fail, it's a sad day for the US economy in general.

N


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3339 times:

Everything we've heard from US is very positive.

Either you are being sarcastic here, or you are not listening to the same things as everyone else.


User currently offlineBuckfifty From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 1316 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3317 times:

Everyone knows things are crap right now, especially for those of us who have a vested interest in this business. So why be so poignant about all this? A little optimism never hurt anyone, even if you think it's misplaced.

User currently offlineCody From United States of America, joined May 1999, 1932 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3234 times:

USAir330 you are right. You never know when things may "pull ahead." Just a few months ago some very prominent and outspoken people on this board were saying, "USAir will be gone by 2003".....Well that means they have today and tomorrow left to be accurate. They were saying things like, "there is absolutely no way at all they will survive. Just look at their CASM's that tells it all." Then on the other hand there were people saying things like, "nothing will ever happen to United because they have Heathrow slots and they ordered the Triple 7 before anyone else".......The fact is, nobody knows what is going to happen. For all we know, Dave Seigel could win the lottery tomorrow and donate it all to USAirways. So why not have hope? The next few weeks are very important. ALL The Unions must agree to the recent TA's. If they don't they won't have an airline to come back to. Therefore I cannot see how it is a hard decision. The Pension Fund must also be settled. From what I have been told, things look 'cautiously optimistic' in regards to the Pension Fund. There are also a few wildcards in play....Iraq being one of them. At any rate, USAirways, especially the employees (who are among the most dedicated I have seen......Where do they find these people?) are doing everything possible to be ready for the turnaround if and when it occurs. What else can you do? Here me when I say this......If all the pieces fall into place USAirways is going to be a forerunner......Watch and see. Hang on for the next couple of weeks.......This is it!

User currently offlineDelta777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 658 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3230 times:

I`m hoping my favorite will survive, i`m a bit sceptical about them surviving, But I hope htey will.


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D E L T A 7 7 7


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3211 times:

For all we know, Dave Seigel could win the lottery tomorrow and donate it all to USAirways

Talk about clutching at straws!  Smile


User currently offlineBR715-A1-30 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3174 times:

Hey Sean,

It could happen  Smile

I hope USAirways DOES pull out of this cold streak and get themselves back into the game.


User currently offlineUN_B732 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 4289 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3153 times:

I agree! I have always loved USAir!


What now?
User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2363 posts, RR: 26
Reply 13, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3142 times:

USair330,

"But if it ever does cease operations it will be right behind American airlines"


AMR is in much better shape then USair. AA, is not in the best
shape, but, far from the drama at USair. I don't want US to go under,
but, Get you facts straight!





"The low fares airline."
User currently offlineN79969 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3131 times:

How far away is US from the edge? What is the probability of liquidation? My sense of the news coming out of US is that is mildly positive-- liquidation is not inevitable.

User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Reply 15, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3126 times:

Yes he is right.This time next year US will be an airline behemoth with new PHL-TLV/CAI/SNN/LTN routes being operated by their newly acquired fleet of 744s all ex-UA(a way of supporting their new alliance partner).US continue to expand their services at LHR(having bought them from UA)but constraints on operating to CLT+PIT force them to open alternative routes such as SEA-LHR.

User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3121 times:
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Dashes of reality:

1. USAirways has successfully muddied relations with its Debtor-in-Posession (Alabama Pension Fund) by not even coming close to financial targets set at the beginning of the Chapter 11 filing, and the DIP has made it very clear that he's more than willing to shove the airline into Chapter 7 to free up his money for other investments. Chapter 7 spells game over, folks. From that, there is no escape unless we talk about US Airways II, which would be dramatically different, if at all possible.

2. Reliance on wage cuts by unions does not change the underlying business model which was not successful. If US ever does emerge from Chapter 11, they'll be staring at bankruptcy again when the union theives want their money back at the next contract negotiation.

3. The US government, specifically the ATSB, has shown (correctly) that it is not willing to prop up airlines with high cost structures and dreamy business plans that are incompatible with realistic market forces. Don't believe me? Take a stroll to Oak Grove Village and ask for Mr. Tilton and company.

4. Even with all of these Airbus orders, close to none of them will come to fruition. Who would pay for them? A bum wouldn't lend US a quarter nowadays -- their credit is shot, for a long time to come. They'll have to make due with what they have, which is a fleet that has taken big steps toward rationalization, but still has a way to go, especially with the elderly 752s, elderly 762s, and the 737 Classics.

5. Finally, a point: in just about every case, you cannot DONATE money to a for-profit corporation. You have to invest. Even Saint Siegel is not shortsighted enough to invest in US right now.

-Aaron


User currently offlineSQ325 From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 1451 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3115 times:

US definitely operates the most modern fleets compared to UA,DL, NW and CO so they should be well prepared for the next years when other airlines need to pay mrd of $ for replacements US is in a little advantage.
I really hope they survive their current probs without being absorbed by another airline. They have the potential to become a very profitable Airline.
If they survive the next 12 or 18 month the chance to survive will be high.
Lets hope the best for US!!!


User currently offlineKROC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3113 times:

And since when is US "quickly coming out of" Chapter !!?

User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3093 times:
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Tell me specifically why I should hope the best for an airline with an irrational business model and historically astronomical costs, especially when they're looking at getting governmental support?

Frankly, I really do hope that US and UA fail and liquidate. Out of the ashes of these failed airlines can rise new carriers with a more realistic business model, who can stand on their own two feet without asking Uncle Sam for help, creating new (more stable) jobs and investment opportunities.

Yes, I do feel bad for those who would be out of work, but again to be frank, that's the way the mop flops. When you work for a carrier who is financially unstable, that is a potential outcome. If the large computer company that I once worked for was to enter bankruptcy -- as it was near more than once -- I would not expect the government to help me beyond my normal unemployment insurance. I would not expect Uncle Sam to artifically prop up the company to save my hide. I would sharpen my pencil, write a resume, and get to work finding another job.

Propping a failed entity up just because it's been around forever is the WORST solution. Allowing the market to work its wonders and allow companies to fail, thereby helping nurture new, stronger businesses, is the most prudent way to proceed.

-Aaron


User currently offlineHaveric From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1247 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3082 times:

1. You don't think Seigel has invested in U? He was a young well-respected CEO who willingly entered a company headed towards bankruptcy. I think he made a huge personal investment by risking his career on his ability to save U.

2. I wish everyone who said that U would not survive 2002 would come out now and apologize. We all know about the a.net member who recites CASMs like it's his own little religion -- if I had the time, I'd go back and look at his failed prophecies.

3. For people complaining about the U business model -- they've made a lot of strides since 9/11. They've eliminated point-to-point routes that eliminated profit from their hubs, increased long-haul Carribean service, and are continuing to expand European service.

4. U must now hope that a war in Iraq doesnt decimate American's desire to travel.


User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3060 times:
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1. You don't think Seigel has invested in U? He was a young well-respected CEO who willingly entered a company headed towards bankruptcy. I think he made a huge personal investment by risking his career on his ability to save U.

Yes, I do. Officers of a corporation almost always are required to invest. It would be interesting to see, however, if Siegel's investment is above that which is required. Even if it was, I'd think it would be a sure bet that he would not invest a newly-won-million into the carrier.

2. I wish everyone who said that U would not survive 2002 would come out now and apologize. We all know about the a.net member who recites CASMs like it's his own little religion -- if I had the time, I'd go back and look at his failed prophecies.

Failed prophecies? Not so sure. So, US survived 2002. I, also, am surprised. While the member in question and I locked horns on U more than once in 2001, on this point, he and I agree. US' CASMs are not competitive, period. CASM is a big reason that they're in Chapter 11 to begin with, and why they're teetering on the edge of liquidation.

3. For people complaining about the US business model -- they've made a lot of strides since 9/11. They've eliminated point-to-point routes that eliminated profit from their hubs, increased long-haul Carribean service, and are continuing to expand European service.

Routes are only one part of the business model -- US still has high labor costs, loads and loads of debt at less-than-competitive rates, and hostile relations with labor (albeit improving, thanks to Wolf). Add to that the increasing creep of the LCCs into US' territory, which makes the portions of the business model that don't involve specific routes or equipment all that more important.

4. U must now hope that a war in Iraq doesnt decimate American's desire to travel.

Amen, sing it brother.

Also, another point: U is no longer a good way to refer to the airline. Their ticker symbol is UAWGQ.OB


User currently offlineFlashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3053 times:
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Correction:

My response in number three should read...

...and hostile relations with labor (albeit improving, NO thanks to Wolf)...


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13608 posts, RR: 61
Reply 23, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3041 times:
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SQ325-

US has a younger fleet than CO? Please back up that statement with statistics.

Oh...you say you can't? Probably because you're WRONG, sir. The youngest fleets of the majors are operated by CO and AS, respectively. TZ is quickly gaining ground by replacing their B-727s and L-1011s with new B-737-800 and B-757-300 equipment, though.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2002/2002-06-04-fleets.htm

I sincerely hope that US pulls through, but odds are they'll be in Chapter 7 within six months. They've surprised us all by pulling back from the edge they teetered on two weeks ago, so perhaps there are a few more rabbits in Dave Siegel's hat.









"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineHaveric From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1247 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (11 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3038 times:

By invest -- I meant not with his cash, but with his career.

You've already corrected yourself on labor costs, but has anyone seen a current calculation of U's CASM? The numbers used by people on this forum are old, outdated and useless. You'll need to wait and see at what level U is at post-bankruptcy.

Much of their debt will be wiped out in bankruptcy, as well non-competitive work rules. It will be a long fight -- but U prepared well for bankruptcy (unlike UA, which was forced in by a sorry turn of events).



25 AA717driver : I'll say it again--companies do not spring out of Ch. 11 and dominate their industry. They limp along, struggling for altitude like an overloaded 747-
26 Flashmeister : has anyone seen a current calculation of U's CASM? For the quarter ending 9/30/02, which did include a bit of its Chapter 11 stint, US' CASM was 10.95
27 N79969 : AA717_Driver, "I've said for a long time that most airline managers aren't competent to run a 7-11." This is a common refrain from labor unions. It's
28 Cody : OK everybody when I said Dave would donate his lottery winnings to USAir I was speaking figuratively. Give me a break I am not that stupid. I am just
29 Ouboy79 : Routes are only one part of the business model -- US still has high labor costs, loads and loads of debt at less-than-competitive rates, and hostile r
30 Flashmeister : RJs do not low CASMs make -- in fact, a lot of the time, RJs can be very expensive to operate. I hadn't heard about the shuttle fleet going to 737s. T
31 ConcordeBoy : Is it not true that no airline has survived more than 10 years outside of Chpt 11?
32 DeltAirlines : Continental was in Ch. 11 a decade ago and now they are one of the strongest carriers. Yet, they are pretty much the lone exception, as pretty much ev
33 Tom in NO : Being in airport management, I don't understand airline finances as well as others do here, but one number in Flashmeister's CASM comparison jumped ou
34 DCA-ROCguy : For legacy carriers, the average CASM was 10.12. US would need to cut costs by another 9% or so to reach just the average for legacy carriers -- then,
35 FlyPNS1 : DL's CASM is very skewed in comparison with the others and here's why. DL's reported CASM includes Comair and ASA (which are owned by DL). As most on
36 Ouboy79 : RJs do not low CASMs make -- in fact, a lot of the time, RJs can be very expensive to operate. I hadn't heard about the shuttle fleet going to 737s. N
37 Post contains images USAir330 : US Airways will struggle if the US does go to war with Iraq, *BUT* US Air wont be alone. Other airlines will struggle as well. Carriers in highly popu
38 DeltaMD11 : All I have to say is that CO was in Chapter 11 two times. And two times they saved themselves, and were on the verge of a 3rd which would've been the
39 Srbmod : Whether or not CH. 11 will be the salvation of U.S. Airways, will be determined on several factors. The DIP money is crucial to keeping operations goi
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