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Looking Ahead...your Thoughts  
User currently offlineBlueShamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 3070 posts, RR: 23
Posted (11 years 12 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 1593 times:

As another turbulent year passes, what do people predict for 2003 ?

Here are some thoughts, some possibilities, not necessarily my hopes:

- United
Remain in Chapter 11 throughout the year, but survive
Drastically cut back at Denver
Concentrate on Chicago
All B744s go
Pacific routes snapped up by Northwest

European carriers, headed by British Airways and Virgin, have a complaint upheld by the European Union that Chapter 11 for US carriers is protectionism and is allowing United and US to dump cheap capacity on the atlantic, whilst chapter 11 protects them from creditors, thus unfairly undercutting the competition.

No change to Bermuda II whilst any of the carriers involved is under chapter 11 protection.

As a result, 2003 will see the cheapest transatlantic airfares for many years.

IF there is war, delete all the above and substitute with "United goes into Chapter 7."

Lo-cost continues to be the buzz word in Europe with aggressive expansion across the continent.

DBA is bought by EasyJet.

City analysts continue to be wary of Easyjet's rapid expansion.

Again, IF there is war, Easyjet run in to deep financial trouble as oil prices soar, with the possibility that we see aircraft being stored and routes dropped. (Easy is one of just a few carriers who do not hedge fuel prices over a number of months, and so will be the first to suffer if the price rises suddenly).

Ryanair continues its success but faces increasing competition, especially in Germany.

American and British Airways finally receive tentative approval to deepen their partnership in response to their complaint about United's protected position in Chapter 11, and Swiss becomes a full member of OneWorld.

Australian expand aggressively with service starting to Europe by the third quarter of 2003, serving leisure routes not served by Qantas or of low yield to them....Istanbul, Athens, Manchester, Amsterdam, perhaps.

British Airways rationalises its fleet further by reducing the 767 and 757 fleet again, possibly another order in the middle of the year for more A321s.

OneWorld members BA, AA and QF announce that they are heading the customer team on the development of the next generation wide-body Boeing, which they see as the natural successor to their collectively huge B762/3 fleet. Boeing are delighted as this almost guarantees the project will proceed. AA have the option of not being a part of the launch order, depending on economics.

An exasperated Northwest bow to pressure from A.Net members and announce the date when they intend to start retiring DC-9s : 2015  Big grin

BWIA have a difficult year with increased competition from european carriers.

bmi resume MAN-IAD whilst MAN-ORD continues to prosper.

A battle for the carribean develops between US Airways and American. Not sure who will win this one, but in the current economic climate, I think common sense will prevail and they learn to co-exist.

Southwest and JetBlue both have a year of positive growth and revenue, the mutual respect continues with neither of them really going head-to head against each other.

Garuda end up in deep financial crisis once again, a knock-on effect from the recent bombing on Bali.

Air New Zealand and Qantas combine forces, ANZ leave Star for OneWorld.

Richard Branson sends a few Air Atlanta B742s down to Virgin Blue to commence long haul service to Asia. Possibility that Virgin Blue joins Star.

Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic is courted by Delta to join SkyTeam. Already partners with their FF programs, Delta is keen to get its flight numbers on flights through London Heathrow. Until Bermuda II is resolved, this could be Delta's best option.

TUI group announce a 3-type fleet strategy for their pan-european airlines: they become the launch customer for the B737-900X, and by 2005 hope to have a fleet of
B737-900X
B757-200, gradually reducing.
A330-200 (and I have a feeling they'll be getting the 2 JMC birds first).


There you have it; speculation, wishful thinking perhaps, a few hunches and a little bit of imagination.

Anyone else care to share their predictions ??

A happy new year to all A.Netters,

A prosperous new year to all aviation professionals on A.Net

and to all fliers, in 2003 may your landings equal your number of take-offs  Big thumbs up

Shamu




So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBlueShamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 3070 posts, RR: 23
Reply 1, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 1548 times:

.......and not a prediction, but a fact,

in a few weeks Shamu will have to change his name as he changes company.......not sure what it'll be yet...... BornAgainVirgin ........ perhaps !!  Big thumbs up



So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
User currently offlineRick767 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2000, 2662 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 1537 times:

Shamu,

All the best at VS, are you moving over to the 340 or the Boeings? Must say the 744 would be very tempting!! Next year maybe... Big grin

Good luck anyway.



I used to love the smell of Jet-A in the morning...
User currently offlineBlueShamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 3070 posts, RR: 23
Reply 3, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 1518 times:

Sticking with the sidestick and the dinner tray Rick  Big grin

Thanks for the good wishes; I think it'll be fun !

And who know's, if my thoughts for 2003 are remotely accurate, you lot could be operating the flying laptops too, soon ! LOL  Big grin

All the best for '03.

Shamu






So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
User currently offlineRick767 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2000, 2662 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 1501 times:

"Sticking with the sidestick and the dinner tray Rick"

You do right mate... just a couple more engines for good measure eh?!

"And who know's, if my thoughts for 2003 are remotely accurate, you lot could be operating the flying laptops too, soon ! LOL"

Maybe, maybe... depends how my Emirates application progresses!! Even if that turns out thumbs up there's a pretty good chance I'd be on the bus down in DXB, they're everywhere these days!!

Happy New Year anyway.

Rick.



I used to love the smell of Jet-A in the morning...
User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13253 posts, RR: 77
Reply 5, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1469 times:

UK Transatlantic carriers suffer badly in 2003.
As stated, UA, under chapter 11 protection, slash fares, other carriers follow.

But there is worse to come. In 1991 when the Gulf War started, US passengers almost disappeared from international flights.
This was despite no link with Iraqi sponsored terrorism against airlines, but fear about middle east instability clearly freaked people.
I was at BA then, and remember it well.
This was before even the first WTC bomb in 1993, let alone Sept 11th, so imagine what it will be like this time, in fact it won't only be US passengers who stay away.

More help for US carriers from their government may be forthcoming in this event, BA, VS and BMI won't get any.
Also, security may increase again, additional measures will come from the UK airlines pockets.

So I'm very, very pessimistic about 2003.


User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11154 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1465 times:

Drastically cut back at Denver

Funny how you say that. How did you reach this conclusion?

This is the exact opposite of what analysts have been predicting and what's coming out of United's mouth.

DEN will be seeing the LEAST amount of cuts as it is currently their most successful hub.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineBlueShamu330s From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 3070 posts, RR: 23
Reply 7, posted (11 years 12 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1426 times:

BA

Because DEN is a purely domestic operation for UA. One Star Alliance european flight does not a hub make ! I have a gut feeling they will be pressured into concentrating on hubs with international connections, as ultimately it could be the banks who force action rather than what the people at UA are saying.

Just my thoughts, as I said in the leader.

Regards and all the best for 2003.



So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11154 posts, RR: 59
Reply 8, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1402 times:

BlueShamu330s,

Because DEN is a purely domestic operation for UA.

And domestic operations are currently United's strongest markets. There are MANY international routes that are doing poorly.

Like I said, DEN is currently there most SUCCESSFUL hub. Why would they greatly downsize there most successful operations? It doesn't make any sense my friend.

One Star Alliance european flight does not a hub make !

Is Delta's operations in SLC not a hub? Is America West's operations in PHX not a hub? Is Northwest's operations in MEM not a hub?

Here is a simple definition of the hub-and-spoke system:
being or relating to a system of routing air traffic in which a major airport serves as a central point for coordinating flights to and from other airports

Whether an airport has a lot of international flights or not has nothing to do with whether it's a hub or not.

Like I said, United is going to focus on it's strongest markets and operations and like I said, Denver is currently the biggest revenue maker.

United will downsize and sadly that downsize will be mostly international traffic. They will focus on domestic markets that are profitable while those that are unprofitable will go to the United Express carriers.

Analysts are predicting that IAD is in the greatest danger as it's never been a strong hub for United and hasn't grown much over the years. MANY domestic routes were handed over to United Express carrier, Atlantic Coast Airlines (ACA).

On the other hand, before 9/11. DEN was seeing increasing rapid growth and United was beginning plans to expand Concourse B, and build a commuter terminal on the east end of Concourse A.

Take a look at this article:
http://rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_1597193,00.html

Denver isn't going anywhere. United knows they have an advantage in Denver since they run more than 60% of the traffic. And like I've said many times, Denver is currently there most successful operation. Overall, domestic operations are currently stronger than overall international operations. There are a few exceptions such as LHR and NRT which are gold mines for United.

Now tell me, does downsizing the most successful operation make sense? Is that a wise move for recovery? I didn't think so....

Common sense would say no, and I am sure you would agree with me.

Also, United drastically downsizing in Denver would hurt them further as Frontier would have an edge over them and as a result, United's operations could suffer greatly.

Regards



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11154 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1395 times:

Let me further clarify about international operations.

Pacific Ops - United's pacific ops are gold mines. The yields are incredibly high along with the loads which is why Pacific operations for United have been extremely successful. As a result, SFO is United's highest yielding hub.

Latin America/South American Ops - They've been extremely weak for United. Latin America and South America in general are low-yielding routes and due to major economic crises in countries such as Argentina, loads have been low. This is why Caracas (CCS) is being dropped next year.

European Ops - Some are great, some are so so. LHR is a gold mine for every carrier. United benefits from exceptionally high yields and loads in LHR. FRA is another strong one because of the connections on Lufthansa. Others have been mediocre such as Dusseldorf (DUS) and Milan (MXP). Both of which will be dropped next year. Munich (MUC) I have heard may also be dropped and might be taken over by Lufthansa. Nothing official though.

As you can see, some of United's international operations are excellent while others are not.

However, United's international operations are too minor to have a significant impact on United's financial structure. Domestic operations are huge which is why they have a larger impact. Some domsetic operations are doing well, some are not. Those that aren't will either be dropped or go to United Express. Those that are doing well will be further strengthened.

Denver overall has good domestic operations. Some routes will be taken over by United Express (such as Wichita (ICT)), while others will remain on United.

The Transcontinental market is incredibly strong, and United's Denver hub is the best transcon hub and United knows this.

This is why Denver has been successful lately and this is why Denver will always be a valuable asset to United.

Last Saturday, United reached a record loadfactor of 90.7% and that was in Denver.

Regards



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineRupertvander82 From France, joined Dec 2002, 411 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 1374 times:

My guess is that VS will not join SkyTeam, they are 49% owned by SIA, doubt they will join any other alliance other than Star Alliance.

Other predictions:

SIA decides to revive Ansett in the Australian market, and Australians welcome Ansett back warmly. Slowly but surely, Ansett becomes a larger domestic airline as the months passes.

Virgin Blue manages to grab hold of 40% of the domestic market by the end of 2003.

SIA, CX and BA decides to increase their seat pitch in economy class to 35'. (That's wishful thinking!)



User currently offlineLeezyjet From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 4042 posts, RR: 53
Reply 11, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1334 times:

BlueShamu330s,

Looking forward to having you at VS. Have to look out for us sometime in the FDBU at LHR.  Smile

My predictions :-

UA cut capcity/frequency on a number of routes but still survive.

Bwia goes ahead and sells its LHR slots to the highest bidder and transfers to LGW.

VS finally starts up routes to SYD and MEL possibly basing an A343 in HKG or routing the A346 thru. Also brings some more 742's out of retirement but operates them on Air Atlanta's AOC. Begins to look at concentrating more of the business elsewhere in the world than the US, so all eggs are not in one basket again.

A very heated price war starts between Ryanair and Easyjet.

BA order A330's to replace the 763 fleet  Big grin

Bmi finally abandon the LHR-US idea's and begin l/haul flights from LHR to other destinations instead.

Just my thoughts.

 Smile



"She Rolls, 45 knots, 90, 135, nose comes up to 20 degrees, she's airborne - She flies, Concorde Flies"
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1328 times:

I would hope BMI wouldn't abandon LHR-US, as they would be a powerful partner for UA to codeshare on from other markets.

Heh did someone say DEN wasn't a hub??  Smile/happy/getting dizzy I predict LH growth at DEN, maybe with a MUC flight.

I also predict increased transpacific flying for UA, with 777s reclaimed from failed European operations.

I of course don't see the EU having any say in hundreds-old US Bankruptcy codes. Does the EU not have bankruptcy protection for any of their companies? Its not just airlines, kids.

I see American falling on some harder times, and struggling against the new UA/US.

I predict interesting things from Sir Richard and his Big Ones.

I predict we'll all still be here, predicting the unpredictable and rubbing as many people the wrong way as possible.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Holiday love to you all, happy new year.

N


User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1307 times:

"IF there is war, delete all the above and substitute with "United goes into Chapter 7."
-------------
There WILL be at least one war. In Iraq. Bush knows that in the long term Saddam must go and that only a war can do this. The diplomatic song and dance is there just to give political cover for US allies.

But it need not have the impact you suggest if the main phase is short and US/Allied casualties are light. Americans are used to war. Americans are used to these sorts of military operations by now, even with major forces. It helps that the Middle East is not a big time destination for US travelers the way Europe and certain parts of the far East are.

Casualties likely WILL be relatively light. The US has allot of very advanced forces over their and they know the area well. Most people in Iraq, even the leaders, hate Saddam as much as the Afghans hated the Talliban. When push comes to shove, everyone will abandon him.

The North Korean situation is far more dangerous, IMHO, for these reasons....

1. Limited strikes are not as politically accepted there. People aren't used to them. A limited commando or air attack meant to eliminate North Korea's nuclear capability would probably result in full scale war. Not so in the middle east - limited strikes have been a way of life there for decades.

2. The CIA thinks the North Koreans already have one or two nuclear bombs - this is public information now, not just rumor. Iraq probably does NOThave actual nuclear bombs(the mushroom cloud variety. I'm not talking "dirty bombs').

3.The US does NOT have nearly the deployed forces in Korea that it does in the Persian Gulf and it would take a long time to get them there.

4.South Korea and Japan are heavily industrialized and densly populated, giving a greater possibility of mass casualties and damage from even a conventional war. The Persian gulf is not as critical an area. Its oil is still important, though allot less so than it was in 92. It is not nearly as densly populated as South Korea and there is not nearly as much non-oil industry. And the oil will still be there even if the wellheads and refinerries are destroyed. Japan and South Korea's factories are allot more vulnerable.

5. The north Korean regime is allot older, more stable, and has allot more comprehensive control of their country than Iraq's regime has. There are no internal opposition groups or insurgencies, no significant ethnic minorities, and contol over the press is much more complete. Most people cannot remember a time when the communists were not in contol. It is very possible people will fight for this regime because it is all they have ever known....and more importantly....they are brainwashed to think it is all they ever COULD know.

For all of the above reasons, George W. is being allot more cautious with North Korea than Iraq. But if North Korea continues to openly manufactures nuclear material that can only be used for weapons, he will have to react eventually. And he will probably NOT try to buy them off like Clinton did....we can see how well that worked. And that is not his style, anyway. He will either use force or the credible threat of force.

IF there is a second Korean war, people WILL abandon the airlines in droves. Even the serious-near term potential of a war there could cause United to go chapter 7. Maybe even Northwest. Some very huge, important and money making routes are near this potential battlefield. The potential for a real, prolonged war with mass casualties on both sides is MUCH greater their than that in Iraq.

IN SHORT....
For the airlines, Iraq is a sideshow. Not quiet an irrelevancy, but not nearly as important as others in this forum seem to think.

They really ought to worry about Korea. That's where the near term danger to them lies.






User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1300 times:

My guess is that VS will not join SkyTeam, they are 49% owned by SIA, doubt they will join any other alliance other than Star Alliance.

Which would then see UA/BD/VS all attempting to (and more than likely failing to) apply for cooperation out of LHR.... further leading to that airports repuation as the great spoiler for alliances.

IMO, VS (route/structure-wise) has the greatest chance in SkyTeam, as it will give them int'l access to LHR, but not encroach on AF/AZ's European ops.... who could ask for anything more??


Bmi finally abandon the LHR-US idea's and begin l/haul flights from LHR to other destinations instead

I've ALWAYS wondered when this would happen myself. The USA is current in the crapper... when BD gets those A330s back, they'd probably make money on routes to Africa/Asia, instead of losing money on America!


User currently offlineRupertvander82 From France, joined Dec 2002, 411 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1283 times:

Maybe SQ will apply cooperation out of Heathrow too. They have been fighting for rights to carrypax between London and the States for quite sometime.

User currently offlineNwa320 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1257 times:

What's Bermuda II ? I think Continental will retire their MD-80 fleet and U.S Airways will retire all of their 767s and 757s.

User currently offlineB747forlife From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 392 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1236 times:

Nwa320 - Bermuda II is an agreement between the US and UK gov't that only 4 airlines (2 from the UK (British Airways and Virgin Atlantic) and 2 from the US(United Airlines and American Airlines)) may fly between London-Heathrow and certain specified cites in the US (such as MIA, IAD, JFK, SEA, SFO). There are more, I just don't wanna list them. The two gov'ts have been looking for openskies, but that hasn't been very forthcoming, and if I'm right, BA is actually in violation of Bermuda II, by flying from LHR to PHX, which is not a specified city.

If I am wrong about that last part, someone tell me.

-Nick


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (11 years 12 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1221 times:

LHR to DEN as well. They just moved almost all of them.

I don't really understand how.

N


User currently offlineDonder10 From Canada, joined Oct 2001, 6660 posts, RR: 21
Reply 19, posted (11 years 12 months 20 hours ago) and read 1150 times:

There were side-clauses which BA had never used for some reason!

User currently offlineBlink182 From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 5485 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (11 years 12 months 17 hours ago) and read 1133 times:

The European Union blocks Star Alliance expansion in Europe due to Star swallowing too much of the market although allows LOT to join.

AA/BA gains approval on flights into MAN,GLA and later expands to include flights to LGW from cities served by either AA or BA but not both. Codeshares from those three airports to beyond destinations are allowed, as is for BA codeshares from AA gateways in the US.

UA stays in Ch. 11 and survives, albeit a much smaller, but economically smarter airline.

JAL, Swiss join oneworld after being courted by the alliance.

LOT joins Star.

Aeroflot accepts Skyteam invitation.

AC's Vancouver hub sees more China expansion.

DFW sees AA cutbacks although AMS service starts, Delta expands with more RJ's.

DEN sees 5x weekly UA LHR flight. Hey, BA flies it, why can't UA?

UA cuts a JFK or EWR-LHR flight.

blink




Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11154 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (11 years 12 months 12 hours ago) and read 1101 times:

DEN sees 5x weekly UA LHR flight.

If it ever happens, it would be daily. Not 5x weekly.

United is not going to give British Airways the edge on the DEN-LHR market. If British Airways service is daily, then you bet United's will be daily. If it's 8x a week, then you bet United's will be 8x a week.

Having 5x a week could also reduce the performance on the flight since it gives passengers less options.

Regards



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (11 years 12 months 12 hours ago) and read 1095 times:

What is the BA LHR-DEN situation? Does UA have the right to retort with a DEN-LHR route?

Will UA retort with a DEN-LHR route? During the US merger fiasco, the new route maps included DEN-LGW.

The DEN-LGW/LHR route has gone unanswered by UA for a while, tends to make me believe the market isn't strong enough for competitive service.

N


User currently offlineBWIA 772 From Barbados, joined May 2002, 2200 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (11 years 12 months 12 hours ago) and read 1087 times:


BlueShamu330s

Rationally thinking I agree with you and you assessment of BWIA.

However I really hope that for BWIA the following:

The year of 2003 is one in which the airline begins that much needed TRUE tarnsformation in terms of management that would allow the airline to rebuild its customer base and start a path of dominace in terms of the airline of the eastern Caribbean. This includes the upgrading of Trinidad to Cat 1 status.

That BWIA is able to get the last Airbus and put the last of the ever so lovely, elegant, graceful,and well built L1011 to rest. That the Airbus 340s begin a nice and distinguished service with the airline although they don't have they arent steeped in Caribbean aviation as the L1011.

Long Live the Last Original Operator of the L1011 Tristar 500 BWIA West Indies Airways "Sharing Our Warmth With The World"



Eagles Soar!
User currently offlineLfutia From Netherlands, joined Dec 2002, 3357 posts, RR: 31
Reply 24, posted (11 years 12 months 12 hours ago) and read 1085 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I think that Air India will go daily on their EWR-CDG-BOM flight and add another one going to DEL and maybe join Star or oneworld.

Leo/ORD



Leo/ORD -- Groetjes uit de VS! -- Heeft u laatst nog met KLM gevlogen?
25 Post contains images Leezyjet : Also forgot to add, Sir Michael Bishop sells off his remaining shares in Bmi to LH/SK, but keeps hold of Bmi Baby just to keep some cash coming in for
26 BA : The DEN-LGW/LHR route has gone unanswered by UA for a while, tends to make me believe the market isn't strong enough for competitive service. United h
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