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Japan May Cancel F-35 Order  
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3790 posts, RR: 11
Posted (2 years 7 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6656 times:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...ighter-japan-idUSTRE81S0G420120229

Another crisis to weather for the F-35?

Or is this just an idle threat? I can't see what else the JAF could go for. F-18s?


Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePowerslide From Canada, joined Oct 2010, 571 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 7 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 6557 times:

No more than political pressure, it has been done before yet no one has left the F35 program. Japan isn't stupid enough to fly 4th gen aircraft half way into the decade when 6th gen will be available.

User currently offlineebj1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 6456 times:

They're concerned the price will get out of hand and they won't be able to afford the plane. That's completely understandable. It's interesting that Lockheed states the U.S. government determines the price per plane that Japan will pay.


Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 6296 times:

lol, they just ordered the plane, the cost increases have been ongoing for years... this is just the obligatory complaining by government opposition parties trying to make trouble.

What country that has ordered the F-35 has not complained about price or warned they are considering thinking about discussing cancelling the F-35 order.

Japan will get its F-35s, they would be insane not to. New F-15K/SE, F/A-18EFs, F-16E/V... unless used, old blocks, or very basic configuration are in the $100m range, the same price as theF-35, for an inferior aircraft.


User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4881 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 6118 times:

Maybe this will improve their outlook.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/th...op-gun-2-will-rock-the-f-35-t.html

Quote:
"Maverick is becoming an F-35 test pilot.

It's true.

Tom Burbage, the Lockheed Martin F-35 programme manager, showed up at a National Aeronautics Association luncheon today and dropped a bombshell of a Hollywood scoop. Sure, there was talk about schedules and budgets, partners and politics, software blocks and carrier hooks. But we'll get to that later.

The big news from Burbage's speech involves Top Gun 2, the long-not-quite-awaited-but-certainly-delayed sequel of the 1986 fighter jock classic."


http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/ai..._c/2012/01/nightflight-150693.html

Complete with twists and characters.....how about that for a sequel?   

Wonder what nickname they'd give the Lightning II.....GANDER???  


[Edited 2012-03-01 14:39:31]


"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12158 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6092 times:

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 1):
Japan isn't stupid enough to fly 4th gen aircraft half way into the decade when 6th gen will be available.

Which fighters are 6th generation?

Quoting Oroka (Reply 3):
Japan will get its F-35s, they would be insane not to. New F-15K/SE, F/A-18EFs, F-16E/V... unless used, old blocks, or very basic configuration are in the $100m range, the same price as theF-35, for an inferior aircraft.

The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each. The F-15SE/K, F/A-18E/F, F-16E/F/V are all avaiable a lot earlier than the F-35 will be. The F-35 is not the everything to everybody fighter some think it is.


User currently offlinebennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7700 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6090 times:

Oroka

Perhaps the prices of these other types is more predictable?.


User currently offlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1572 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 6069 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each

Isn't it north of $150M each?

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 6063 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each.

Yes, the F-35 is more now, but that price has steadily gone down, and should continue to do so over the next few years. The current trend of ordering small batches is keeping that price higher, when production is in full swing, the jet will be cheaper. How much cheaper, im sure no one has a final answer to that.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-15SE/K, F/A-18E/F, F-16E/F/V are all avaiable a lot earlier than the F-35 will be.

Unless Japans F-4s are rattling apart, and with tensions easing with N Korea, Im sure Japan can wait a bit for a better jet.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is not the everything to everybody fighter some think it is.

I dont think it will be a wonder jet, but it is a step up from even gen 4.5 fighters. Fighters are really something you shouldnt skimp on if you can manage it, that is why all the countries that can afford it are sticking with the F-35.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 6):
Perhaps the prices of these other types is more predictable?.

Hazards of buying something that is not finished. No, it will never be the $60m jet that was promised, but it will not be the $150m jet the F-22 is.


User currently offline9MMPQ From Netherlands, joined Nov 2011, 316 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 5902 times:

Well, with all the economic problems in the world it really shoudn't surprise anyone. A lot of things are under scrutiny nowadays & the F-35 with it's problems will be no different.

Is it really the ''must have'' hardware it's made out to be now ? I can certainly see the attraction in going for a cheaper readily available aircraft. Especially if the need for stealth capabilities may be questionable. But in the end, with so much invested, i doubt anyone has the guts to completely pull out.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 4):
Maybe this will improve their outlook.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/th...op-gun-2-will-rock-the-f-35-t.html

Quote:
"Maverick is becoming an F-35 test pilot.

Won't be able to repeat the former glory the first ''Top Gun'' had. I'll have a stab at a scenario.

I bet Maverick is a very good F-35 test pilot, until he has a crisis of confidence & can't be a F-35 test pilot aymore. Then he meets a good looking woman who helps him overcome his crisis of confidence & helps him become a better F35 test pilot. Add crash, fiery explosions & cool flying shots & we're there 



I believe in coincidences. Coincidences happen every day. But I don't trust coincidences.
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3790 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5863 times:

Can we at least expect real air to air footage in from that new Top Gun movie?
It's what made the old one a 'good' movie.
Now if they plan on coming up with full CGI aerial shots, count me out.

As for Japan, they'll basically either buy the F-35 or keep flying 'old' generation aircrafts until the next century...
They're certainly not going to get European aircrafts, much less Russian ones.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineptrjong From Netherlands, joined Mar 2005, 3959 posts, RR: 18
Reply 11, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5857 times:

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 1):

Fighter generations are a crap concept.



The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad (Salvador Dali)
User currently offlineBnclar From Sweden, joined Mar 2012, 14 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5847 times:

Which foreign country is the closest to be able to buy the F22? ( not that it is for sale to foreign air forces)


It feels like Japan would be the likeliest candidate after say Canada and UK.


User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Azerbaijan, joined exactly 11 years ago today! , 14079 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5817 times:

The problem for Lockheed and the US government is that if too many countries cancel their orders, the prices for the remaining aircraft will become way too expensive.

Jan


User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 5813 times:

Quoting Bnclar (Reply 12):
Which foreign country is the closest to be able to buy the F22?

Japan, Australia... Canada wouldnt have a pure air dominance fighter. I dont ever remember hearing about any interest from the UK.

Quoting 9MMPQ (Reply 9):
Is it really the ''must have'' hardware it's made out to be now ? I can certainly see the attraction in going for a cheaper readily available aircraft. Especially if the need for stealth capabilities may be questionable. But in the end, with so much invested, i doubt anyone has the guts to completely pull out.

Unless there is a dire need (ie RAAF buying F/A-18EFGs), why buy a old design to save a few bucks? Wait a few years, get something that will be top of the line for at least another decade rather than already second rate.


User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4881 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5762 times:

Quoting 9MMPQ (Reply 9):
Add crash, fiery explosions & cool flying shots & we're there

Imagine he got lost somewhere off the Canadian northwest, came face to face with PAK-FA and J-20 on combat exercise, and couldn't communicate with his home base.  .

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
Now if they plan on coming up with full CGI aerial shots, count me out.

"Real" simulator time and those will have to do...with the Russian and Chinese stealth fighters...and if a Silent Eagle from AK had to come in to save its behind because it still hadn't completed its weapons trials.  

Alone, they could do all the magnificent live aerial shots of it they want. Gone there!  

[Edited 2012-03-02 08:35:06]


"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlinewingscrubber From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 852 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 5693 times:

I feel compelled to post a link to some Chinese animated fighter-jet comedy I stumbled accross recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evjHR5NiwsQ&feature=share



Resident TechOps Troll
User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 5662 times:

Quoting Oroka (Reply 14):
Japan, Australia... Canada wouldnt have a pure air dominance fighter. I dont ever remember hearing about any interest from the UK.

Actually, I rather think that is exactly what we need, rather than a bomb truck. But of course they're unavailable. Also seems to be something of a hangar queen.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5620 times:

We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).

User currently offlineOzair From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 867 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 5581 times:

Quoting Oroka (Reply 18):
We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).

Most people also don't realise the F-35 has a 50% greater range than the F-22 with the same internal fuel load. For Canada an extra 200nm might be an important difference?


User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 5559 times:

Quoting Oroka (Reply 18):
We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).

Perhaps I was not clear: we need something like the F-22 far more than the F-35. The F-35 is intended to fight an aggressive war whereas the F-22 is a defensive weapon system. But, again, not available.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinePowerslide From Canada, joined Oct 2010, 571 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 5545 times:

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 20):
The F-35 is intended to fight an aggressive war whereas the F-22 is a defensive weapon system.

Pretty sure both are designed to fight both in the offensive and defense roles. The F-35 does A/A much better than the F-22 does A/G.


User currently offlinetommytoyz From Tonga, joined Jan 2007, 1353 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5469 times:

Quoting Oroka (Reply 8):
Yes, the F-35 is more now, but that price has steadily gone down, and should continue to do so over the next few years.

This is 100% false. The full rate production price is not yet known and the LRIP prices have gone up at every turn with each tranche being more expensive than the next. The next LRIP tranche will be the most expensive yet per plane.

The latest F-35 prices are going way up. LRIP-5 prices are:

USAF F-35A, $125M + $25M per engine, Total $150M
U.S. Navy carrier variant F-35C, $156M + $28M per engine, Total $184M
USMC F-35B STOVL, $142M + $129M per engine, Total $271M

Don't believe it? PW contract release is here:

http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/engine-contracts.png

These prices are higher than LRIP-4 prices.

[Edited 2012-03-03 01:38:00]

User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 5458 times:

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 21):
Pretty sure both are designed to fight both in the offensive and defense roles. The F-35 does A/A much better than the F-22 does A/G.

But as an air dominance fighter, F-22 is designed to intercept and destroy attacking aircraft, all well and good. Not much different than what the Arrow was intended to do, although the F-22 should do it much better. I don't think anyone will argue with the idea of defending sovereign territory.

F-35 is intended to attack specific targets close to a land force in the battlespace -- not really something Canada should be considering. In that scenario I believe Canadian forces would be acting more or less at the behest of America, as I cannot see Canada ever launching a conflict on its' own. We simply don't have the resources, or, I believe, the inclination as a nation. It's role as an interceptor is secondary. Besides, with the apparently continuing price rise, it's likely we won't see a 65 aircraft fleet, and therefore it's viability as an effective force comes into some question.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinetommytoyz From Tonga, joined Jan 2007, 1353 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5334 times:

What people should realize regarding Japan, is that the Japanese government, as a percentage of their GDP, has an outstanding debt greater than any other industrialized country, as measured as a percentage of the economic output or GDP. I assume this makes them very budget concerned and constrained. I think that's why they are already making noises and are not bluffing, should the price not hold - and neither are the Italians. The effects of the financial meltdown in 2007/2008 is seen on all countries' deficits. The chart below tells the story:


Japan has the highest debt and Italy nmbr 2 - percentage of Economic Output



FYI, Greece has and outstanding debt of 165% of GDP and going higher, because GDP is shrinking and debt in increasing - at the same time, yikes! But still well below Japan's. When you think about F-35 price sensitivity for each country, you might want to keep these charts in mind. Some countries can tolerate price increases more than others.

Another F-35 country in these charts is the UK. It was virtuous till 2007/2008 - after which it went ballistic and the unemployment rate is still at a 17 year high. And they might have finished, brand new aircraft carriers sailing around with no F-35s or Harriers on them. And the UK Navy hasn't even budgeted for the support vessels yet for far flung deployments of the carriers - all this amid defense budget cuts.

I suggest to keep all this in mind as they are facts.

[Edited 2012-03-03 13:29:55]

User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 5372 times:

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
Besides, with the apparently continuing price rise, it's likely we won't see a 65 aircraft fleet, and therefore it's viability as an effective force comes into some question.

65 is the bare minimum our air force can operate with. 2 x 24 jet sqn, 1 x 12 training sqn. i would expect more to be added at a later date to cover losses, testing, and maintenance.


User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 26, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 5302 times:

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 24):
FYI, Greece has and outstanding debt of 165% of GDP and going higher, because GDP is shrinking and debt in increasing - at the same time, yikes! But still well below Japan's. When you think about F-35 price sensitivity for each country, you might want to keep these charts in mind. Some countries can tolerate price increases more than others.

Japan's debt problem is actually worse than that, since the population is now going down, but the average age in society is going up. Therefore, fewer workers available to enable industry to generate things to help pay down the massive debt.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinejouy31 From France, joined May 2003, 447 posts, RR: 10
Reply 27, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5260 times:

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 26):
Japan's debt problem is actually worse than that, since the population is now going down,

On the other hand, it is not as bad as in other countries, since the Japanese debt is held mostly by Japanese nationals and institutions.

[Edited 2012-03-04 05:57:23]

User currently offlineThePointblank From Canada, joined Jan 2009, 1767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (2 years 7 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4753 times:

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 22):

This is 100% false. The full rate production price is not yet known and the LRIP prices have gone up at every turn with each tranche being more expensive than the next. The next LRIP tranche will be the most expensive yet per plane.

The latest F-35 prices are going way up. LRIP-5 prices are:

USAF F-35A, $125M + $25M per engine, Total $150M
U.S. Navy carrier variant F-35C, $156M + $28M per engine, Total $184M
USMC F-35B STOVL, $142M + $129M per engine, Total $271M

Don't believe it? PW contract release is here:

http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/engine-contracts.png

These prices are higher than LRIP-4 prices.

Because the US government has gutted the LRIP production schedule, meaning planned costs savings from ramping up production do no occur. Compare last year's budget projections to this year's (FY2012 to FY2013) and you will see why the LRIP slowdown was such a BAD idea.

When you stretch out the delivery schedule and cut units, you create a lot of inefficiencies. That's unavoidable. While cutting units may save money now, it will cost you more in the future.


User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3626 posts, RR: 27
Reply 29, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 4609 times:
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Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 28):
When you stretch out the delivery schedule and cut units, you create a lot of inefficiencies. That's unavoidable. While cutting units may save money now, it will cost you more in the future.


on the other hand building large quantities of a/c requiring post roll out rework including structural work is twice to three times as costly a slowing the production down and fixing the problem before assembly. Also indications are that the electronics won't be there so any practical use of those unmodified a/c is limited (looks like limited to making movies    )


User currently offlinePowerslide From Canada, joined Oct 2010, 571 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 4594 times:

Quoting kanban (Reply 29):
on the other hand building large quantities of a/c requiring post roll out rework including structural work is twice to three times as costly a slowing the production down and fixing the problem before assembly.

Is this opinion or fact?


User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3626 posts, RR: 27
Reply 31, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4522 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Both, based on years in a/c manufacturing... Also comes from studies supporting the Toyota Production system.. Rework is very expensive and the deeper into the structure who have to go the higher the costs. And then there is the documentation..

User currently offlineThePointblank From Canada, joined Jan 2009, 1767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (2 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4488 times:

Quoting kanban (Reply 29):
Also indications are that the electronics won't be there so any practical use of those unmodified a/c is limited (looks like limited to making movies )

Actually, the current LRIP aircraft will be considered combat capable at the Block 2B stage. What you are hearing is about the Block 4 modification, which is considered a major software upgrade for F-35, which adds capability above and beyond that of current aircraft. The list of capabilities they are planning to add at the Block 4 stage is pretty staggering. Remember, F-35's avionics architecture is based off of hardened IBM Power PC processors that are easily upgradable and replaced for additional capabilities.


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